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***OFFICIAL*** Washington Nationals ongoing thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter JZilla
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Don Quixote
Footballguy
With Harper officially out of the picture, I guess the attention turns to Rendon. I think he was better than Harper in 4 out of the past 5 years (and I don't think that's a particularly hot take), but should not cost as much. Probably still won't be cheap, if the Arenado contract is any sign.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Rumors that Kimbrel signing could be close
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Setting side for a moment the important and indisputable fact that the Lerner family could literally wipe their ###es with $200 million in cash and nobody would ever know the difference other than some Lerners having itchy backsides ...
Is there any mechanism that would stop the Nats from ducking under the threshold for a year by giving Kimbrel a lopsided deal that gets them under the threshold for one year, thus resetting their luxury tax obligations so they no longer have to pay the added tax for consecutive years, then jumps back up to compensate for his lower 2019 salary? Like say for example something like this:
2019: $4 million
2020: $26 million
2021: $15 million
2022: $15 million
Don Quixote
Footballguy
That was a great piece. Eireann Dolan is an awesome part of the package too.
Mark Zuckerman had a tweet that reminded me that they gave up not only Treinen but also Jesus Lazardo for him and Madson. I can't imagine the griping that would be taking place if it was not for how great he is to root for.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
The Competitive Balance Tax uses AAV. So in your example, Kimbrel would count for 4 years, $15M per year.TobiasFunke said:
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Thanks.
So it appears our only shot at Kimbrel is if the Lerners magically realize that any hypothetical tax payments are pocket change to them.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
They'd have to do something like they tried with Harper (and did with Strasburg, Scherzer and Corbin). Hope Kimbrel takes payment in deferrals to lower the AAV. Problem is, long after they're gone, the Nationals will still be paying them.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
That doesn't strike me as a problem. We don't know what the CBA will look like that far down the road, and obviously from a simple cash standpoint the Lerners have plenty of money.
The bigger problem, if I'm understanding you/the tax correctly and Kimbrel would cost around $15 mil per, is that they're already so close to the tax line that they can't even get him with a Scherzer type deal. I think they'd have to unload salary, and I don't know where they'd find it.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Maybe it is small potatoes at the end of the day, but it also impacts the comp received for a player receiving QO that sign elsewhere. So, the Nats only get a comp pick after the 4th round for Harper. If let's say Rendon were made a QO and signed elsewhere and the Nats stayed below the luxury tax threshold, they'd get a pick after Round 2.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
And they also lose picks in the 2019 draft for signing Kimbrel, right?
As fantastic as it sounds, it also seems like there's a ton of obstacles and negatives. Wonder if Trevor Rosenthal throwing 100 in spring training will change their outlook too.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Yes, I think is right. It is no longer the first that it was in the past, but lose a 2nd. Additional hits for teams that exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season (like the Nats). Found this on the MLB site: "A team that exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If such a team signs multiple qualifying-offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest remaining picks as well."
Don Quixote
Footballguy
MAT injury certainly hurts bench depth, but kind of glad in a way that it takes the decision out of Davey's hands (even if Robles had the edge, I feel like he still would have tried giving MAT too many starts). Robles time.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
The NL East is loaded and call me a homer, but...Nats are still the best overall team. Love the lineup with Adams, Howie and MAT as depth, starting pitching should be very good, and the bullpen should be much improved. I think the Mets got a lot better and the Phillies, yeah, they got better too, but I wonder about their starting pitching (this is with me thinking Pivetta is the real deal). No idea what the Braves were doing in the off-season, they just failed to address their weaknesses and that starting pitching has 
written all over it. Nats play the AL Central, which is probably the worst division in baseball, so that helps in the big picture.
written all over it. Nats play the AL Central, which is probably the worst division in baseball, so that helps in the big picture.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Is it too early to think about replacing Davey Martinez?
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
6 months late, IMO. I want him to succeed but I just don't see anything that gives me optimism.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
I see plenty has been learned about how to use a bullpen. 
Rosenthal won't make it through June
Rosenthal won't make it through June
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Over/Under on Trea Turner being out. 6 weeks? Carter Kieboom time?
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Bullpen is hot garbage.
And, yeah, if Trea is out for a lengthy period of time, I think it’s Kieboom time.
And, yeah, if Trea is out for a lengthy period of time, I think it’s Kieboom time.
Redwes25
Footballguy
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Pointer finger on his throwing hand. Looked like they popped it back in place on the field. I would assume the DL is inevitable but hopefully it's not one of those 2 month deals. If it's 2 weeks they'll just activate Kendricks and play Difo at SS, IMO. If it's longer, just bring up Kieboom and let him go.
Not that it matters until Davey figures out how to use a bullpen.
modogg
Footballguy
little surprised at all the boo's Bryce got tonight. i mean guy did seem ready to stay with the team until the ownership pulled that shady deal. i guess maybe a good chunk of the fanbase didn't hear the details, but it would be hard to still boo the guy once you find out your team is trying to screw him over by paying him 1/3 of his salary when he turns 72 or whatever
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Turner broke 
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Couple things at work. First, I think all the people who appreciate Harper and were just kinda bummed about how it all went down and want to get past it stayed home for a depressing, cold, early April rain-delayed game (this describes me- you would have had to pay me to go last night), while the people who wanted to boo him bought tickets. That was probably the biggest factor. Another factor is the obnoxious Philly fans who travel south and act like complete dooshbags when their team is good and then vanish when they aren't. I generally think Philly sports fans get an undeserved bad rap- I've have been to Phillies and Flyers games in Philly and had a great time, met some awesome people. But the fans who bus down to Nats Park suuuuuuuuck, and Harper signing with the Phils brought them back. So that didn't put anyone in a pleasant mood. Also, Harper has not handled the departure very well. Nats fans are usually very welcoming of former players- Wilson Ramos and Ian Desmond still get cheered, Blake Treinen got a big ovation at the ASG last year even though he sucked as our closer to the point the Nats had to trade him for Doolittle, and there's other examples. So it's not like we're predisposed to resentment.
Also, regarding the contract- remember you're only getting the Harper/Boras side of the story in those reports. It's in their interest to make it seem like Harper got severely lowballed and had no choice but to move on. For example, they haven't explained why they never reached out to the Nats to negotiate a better deal. All they had to do is pick up a phone and call, but it appears they never did.
Anyway he still didn't deserve that, and it sucks, and it made Nats fans look bad, and now Trea is out for months and a banged-up 1-3 team is about to go on the road to lose a bunch more games to the Phils and Mets and everything is terrible. At least the Wizards fired Ernie Grunfeld.
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Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Not calling up kieboom. Is this one of those wait until may deals to get an extra year of service from him?
E-Z Glider
Footballguy
Yeah, those bus trips were organized by WIP610 (sports talk for the idiots), so you truly got the worst of the worst. Im sure the 3-4 hours of tailgating/drinking on the way down didn't help either. Surprised there weren't more fights/ejections, frankly.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Yup, sucks for everyone.
When I tell other Nats fans how much I've enjoyed my trips to Citizen's Bank Park they look at me like I've lost my mind.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
I feel like they could send him back down when Turner gets back so he can continue playing every day (which would pause the clock), and no one would object to that. The only thing that I can figure is that because his numbers in AA were not that great last year , they want to give him a bit of time in AAA. If he starts off hot, and Difo and Sanchez are sucking wind, I think it will force him up if Turner is still looking to be out for awhile. I could be wrong though.
ETA: Zuckerman tweeted that he thinks Rizzo was talking about his defense not being ready. So, that could be it.
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modogg
Footballguy
i'm not much of a baseball fan but did travel to DC for 2 Phillies games in the past. it was a couple of years ago, and my mother-in-law lives in York PA, and I guess DC is closer for them then Philly. Also way easier to get tickets to games in DC then in Philly, especially right after the World Series run. all good when I went there, but it was mid-season and not a ton of excitement from either fanbase
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Dozier batting #2, and Robles staying at #9 in the order. Ugh.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Yesterday? No idea, wasn't there.
In the past (2010-2012, specifically) they were always obnoxious and confrontational. Their celebrations were never about just being happy their team was succeeding; they'd immediately turn to the crowd and start ####-talking and trying to start arguments. They were there to troll and piss off the home fans. It was consistent and annoying as hell. I've always thought that if you were cheering for the road team you should be act like a guest to some extent. After all, most of the paying crowd would prefer that someone else be in your seat, so just be aware of that and behave accordingly. Seems easy enough, and I do it when I watch DC teams on the road. They're the exact opposite of that.
I've been a season ticket holder since we've had a baseball team, so I've seen all the fan bases come through town during good times and bad (except the Marlins I guess). Phillies fans in general always got a bad rap IMO. On average I think Mets, Braves and Cubs fans are worse and more obnoxious. My problem with Phillies fans has always been just those obnoxious ones who come down for "takeovers" when the Phils are good ... and of course disappear completely when they aren't.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Yep makes no sense. Even if he's going to move Dozier up why wouldn't Difo go to 9 and move Robles up to 6 or 7. But Robles and Eaton should be 1/2 in some order.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Yeah, even if Robles stays down close to the bottom, I think moving up everyone up 1, so Rendon hits #2, Soto #3, etc. is better than moving up Dozier to that spot. And now we're in a situation where catcher/Difo/pitcher all hit before Robles in the lineup.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
I feel like I'm watching Al Groh manage this team. He thinks he's smarter than every other manager but the rest of the league is laughing at us.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
The worst and it's not close.
(It would be kinda close if I was allowed to hate the Tomahawk Chop as much as it deserves, but my Skins fandom is problematic there)
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I don’t think Turner will be out “months,” normal recovery time is 4-6 weeks.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Next time the bullpen blows a four run lead in the 8th inning you can cheer yourself up by looking at the ZiPS projections for 2021.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Up 12-2 in the 7th inning. He could pitch Rosenthal who can't blow a 10 run lead. Or Ross who just got called up. Or even Suero. But noooooo he choose Matt Grace who has pitched in every game this year it seems. The bullpen may not be performing their best but Davey has no clue how to manage these guys either
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Nevermind on Rosenthal. But my point stands
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
In 9 games we have relief appearances of:
Justin Miller - 6
Kyle Barraclough - 6
Matt Grace - 6
Tony Sipp - 6
Wander Suero - 5
Sean Doolittle - 4
Trevor Rosenthal - 4 (How can you put him into the game unless it's a 10 run difference?)
Jeremy Hellickson - 1 (going into the rotation now)
Joe Ross - 1
How is this sustainable over the summer? He manages every day like it's game 7 of a playoff series playing matchups. This doesn't even factor how often he warms them up either. Is there a tool anywhere that can compare his bullpen usage to other teams?
Justin Miller - 6
Kyle Barraclough - 6
Matt Grace - 6
Tony Sipp - 6
Wander Suero - 5
Sean Doolittle - 4
Trevor Rosenthal - 4 (How can you put him into the game unless it's a 10 run difference?)
Jeremy Hellickson - 1 (going into the rotation now)
Joe Ross - 1
How is this sustainable over the summer? He manages every day like it's game 7 of a playoff series playing matchups. This doesn't even factor how often he warms them up either. Is there a tool anywhere that can compare his bullpen usage to other teams?
Don Quixote
Footballguy
While I blame Martinez some, the way the bullpen is pitching isn't giving a whole lot of alternative options right now. Those numbers would be better if more guys in the bullpen were able to get outs. A bullpen ERA of 10+ is not sustainable either.Ramblin Wreck said:
I don't know much about pitching coaches, but they should probably get rid of Lilliquist. He seems kind of a hands-off, old school pitching coach, but I think they could use a bit more direction.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Soto and Robles. 
Encyclopedia Brown
Footballguy
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Nice to see someone else’s bullpen pooping the bed for once.
ETA: Hope I’m not jinxing the bottom of the 10th.
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TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I had completely forgotten what it feels like when a baseball game brings you joy. It's been either sadness or temporary relief since at least last May.
Anyway it's pretty cool.
Anyway it's pretty cool.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Robles batting 9th again. Martinez still rationalizing it yesterday about the protection that Robles gets to see pitches with Eaton / Dozier behind him. I think he'd get pretty good protection if he had Rendon / Soto behind him.
