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Is stockpiling rookie picks the way to go in dynasty rebuild mode? (1 Viewer)

gianmarco

gianmarco

Footballguy
Curious what some people think of this. We often see teams that realize they need to rebuild and start over trade known players, usually older vets, for rookie picks. However, is that really the way to go? Does acquiring a larger # of picks really help you achieve a competing team effectively? Given that many rookie picks don't pan out plus the fact that you have to wait for them to even see if they are worth it or not, this strategy could potentially prolong a period of noncompetitiveness.

If you aren't going to trade for rookie picks, is it better to trade for cheaper 1st/2nd year players with upside? Or possibly to acquire the rookie picks and then trade them closer to the draft as their value increases for known, younger players.

Just wanted to see some thoughts on this.

 
gianmarco said:
Or possibly to acquire the rookie picks and then trade them closer to the draft as their value increases for known, younger players.
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This is what I have started doing. Once you know you are out of it and wish to rebuild, trade for picks mid season. Then trade most of those picks later in the March / April pre-draft hype days. I built a contending team in one season doing this (I traded older vets and ended up with three 3 firsts and three seconds - then traded all but the 1.1 and one second - built a nice little team)
 
gianmarco said:
Curious what some people think of this. We often see teams that realize they need to rebuild and start over trade known players, usually older vets, for rookie picks. However, is that really the way to go? Does acquiring a larger # of picks really help you achieve a competing team effectively? Given that many rookie picks don't pan out plus the fact that you have to wait for them to even see if they are worth it or not, this strategy could potentially prolong a period of noncompetitiveness.

If you aren't going to trade for rookie picks, is it better to trade for cheaper 1st/2nd year players with upside? Or possibly to acquire the rookie picks and then trade them closer to the draft as their value increases for known, younger players. Just wanted to see some thoughts on this.
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Excellent topic...I tend to lean toward the bolded option.

I think loading up on draft picks and rolling the dice with rookies is the path to a lonnng rebuild. I'm not a fan of the Soviet style '5 year plan'.

A blend of the two, a few good draft picks and trading of established players for young players that have shown some ablity, would be my ideal route.

 
jwb said:
gianmarco said:
Or possibly to acquire the rookie picks and then trade them closer to the draft as their value increases for known, younger players.
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This is what I have started doing. Once you know you are out of it and wish to rebuild, trade for picks mid season. Then trade most of those picks later in the March / April pre-draft hype days. I built a contending team in one season doing this (I traded older vets and ended up with three 3 firsts and three seconds - then traded all but the 1.1 and one second - built a nice little team)
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I have stockpiled 2nd year "bust" players a la Meachem, Jarrett, Ginn, B. Jackson, Olsen, etc. on the cheap.I am in my 1st ever rebuild and traded Randy Moss for Ben Roeth/Marshall/1st/2nd. I am also looking to move Witten for a young TE/WR and picks. Will I keep the picks? Maybe, maybe not. I am not going to be opposed to dealing them when the time comes.This past offseason, I stocked up on picks by packaging players and trading guys I didn't think would ever live up to their hype. I then packaged picks with mid-tier players for upgrades to my lineup.
 
Sell high/buy low with a special emphasis on youth. You have to get rid of guys like Hines Ward, Terrell Owens, Jamal Lewis, and Fred Taylor because they won't help you when you're ready to compete. Target picks and prospects. Try to focus on the unheralded guys because they're usually better values than the hyped guys, but be willing to spend big if you're 100% confident in a prospect's skills. I traded a 1st and a 3rd for Santonio Holmes after his rookie year. It was a steep price, but it worked out well.

In the end, trading is always about moving the overvalued players on your roster for undervalued players. This holds true whether you're in first place or last place. Identify value and accumulate it.

 
I have never seen a full rebuild work. In my one dynasty league an owner has had 19 1st over the last 8 years and has missed the playoffs each and every year. The most successful rebullds are the guys that go in the tank to get a high 1st one year or 2 and than trade away all the youth to bring in the studs they need along with the top picks they have received.

I did this a few years ago in another league, even though with selling off, I still only ended up with pick 6 as best one and than traded all those picks again and finished with 2nd best record in year 1 and regular season title in year 2. Brought in Rivers, Holt, Fitz, Gates and Shockey with the picks and youth in the end. Some good trades and some bad ones of course. Another owner just did it last year and has a decent team but he needs the superstars now to be a competitor again. Deep team now though which is what would happen in the perfect world

Picks are such crapshoots overall. In my main league, the success rate of 1st round has been under 50% success and 2nd round has been about 41 with one owner holding like an 85% in the 2nd and alot of the picks

 
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EBF said:
Sell high/buy low with a special emphasis on youth. You have to get rid of guys like Hines Ward, Terrell Owens, Jamal Lewis, and Fred Taylor because they won't help you when you're ready to compete. Target picks and prospects. Try to focus on the unheralded guys because they're usually better values than the hyped guys, but be willing to spend big if you're 100% confident in a prospect's skills. I traded a 1st and a 3rd for Santonio Holmes after his rookie year. It was a steep price, but it worked out well. In the end, trading is always about moving the overvalued players on your roster for undervalued players. This holds true whether you're in first place or last place. Identify value and accumulate it.
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:goodposting: I try to maintain a good balance of older, productive vets and youth, but lately I've felt better about taking the undervalued old players with the idea that I'll rebuild eventually. I enjoy the rebuild process, and have had success with either technique - rookie picks or young players, depending on how the league values both. In one of my leagues which is pretty competitive, people still overvalue picks big time IMO so I trade mine away. I call it the contrarian trading strategy, if picks are valued higher than they should be, trade them away. If RBs are overvalued, trade them, if QBs are undervalued (often the case in dynasty) acquire them until people catch up. Maybe it's just my leagues, but the values have tended to sway to different positions/picks/ages throughout the year, I try to stay ahead of this and set the trends when possible.
 
rebuilding through the draft can take years to do. I seen a guy take over a bad team 4 years ago, his best player when he took over was Brady. he had the #1 or #2 pick the last 4 years and drafted players like Caddy, R. Brown, ADP, Bush and R. Williams. Last year was the first year he made the playoffs.

 
FF is a game of studs, plain and simple...now ask yourself how many draft picks you make that are going to be studs. The count is low and they are hard to find. I wouldn't be so eager to throw away guys like TO...he still is a top3 WR in FF, not sure what you are going to upgrade to while he is busy scoring points for the Cowboys over the next 3-4 years.

OK, you got a 1st round pick for him in 2009...woopee!!! What do you think you will cash in with? I think it is better to try and trade players for players with draft picks only thrown in to balance things a bit.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
FF is a game of studs, plain and simple...now ask yourself how many draft picks you make that are going to be studs. The count is low and they are hard to find. I wouldn't be so eager to throw away guys like TO...he still is a top3 WR in FF, not sure what you are going to upgrade to while he is busy scoring points for the Cowboys over the next 3-4 years.
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FF is also a game of depth. Depending on your league format, having quality guys like Laveranues Coles and Chris Chambers on your bench can be the difference between winning the championship and getting knocked out in the first round. It's definitely true that studs can carry teams to titles, but I've seen a lot of teams win because of good depth.3-4 years is an optimistic outlook for Owens. He's 34 years old. How many WR's remain in the top 20 between ages 35-38? Owens may very well be done as a useful FF player after 1-2 more years. I had him outside my top 20 receivers in my latest dynasty rankings. That may be a bit harsh, but he's no better than top 15 IMO. If you have a rebuilding team, he's useless.
OK, you got a 1st round pick for him in 2009...woopee!!! What do you think you will cash in with?
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Not all rookie picks pan out, but many of them do. You can make a pretty strong case that guys like Dwayne Bowe, Greg Jennings, Santonio Holmes, and Calvin Johnson are worth more than TO in dynasty leagues right now. So when you consider that he probably only has 1-3 good years left, it's not a huge reach to take the 35-50% gamble on a rookie WR instead. That's not to mention the possibility of getting a top 3-4 pick. I would rather have Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart, or Michael Crabtree than TO right now.
 
There is no single "best" way to rebuild. I think you have to acknowledge the strengths and weaknesses of some different options and adapt them to your circumstances.

For example, in an IDP league, IDP's tend to be drafted from the middle of the second round and later in rookie drafts, you can immediately improve a very weak team by stocking up on 2nd and 3rd round picks and grabbing IDP's, especially DE's and LB's.

I also think that having a true FF stud (i.e., a top 2-3 guy at his position, such as LT, Peyton, Moss, Gates, etc.) tends to be wasted if you have a very weak roster otherwise, and that stud best used if you can work a trade for them that gets you at least a shot at 2-3 starting players. Usually this is best accomplished with one of the elite teams in your league who feels like they're one player away from dominating, and can afford to trade away good players who, for them, are merely depth but who for you will start or are at least very good starting prospects.

 
EBF said:
Sell high/buy low with a special emphasis on youth. You have to get rid of guys like Hines Ward, Terrell Owens, Jamal Lewis, and Fred Taylor because they won't help you when you're ready to compete. Target picks and prospects. Try to focus on the unheralded guys because they're usually better values than the hyped guys, but be willing to spend big if you're 100% confident in a prospect's skills. I traded a 1st and a 3rd for Santonio Holmes after his rookie year. It was a steep price, but it worked out well. In the end, trading is always about moving the overvalued players on your roster for undervalued players. This holds true whether you're in first place or last place. Identify value and accumulate it.
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:goodposting: You want to build a young team, but if there's a buy low opportunity on a vet jump on it - you may be able to sell them away at a profit later on (something I plan on doing with Arnaz Battle this season in a disaster of a deep dyno team I have inherited - bought him as a throw in).
 
EBF said:
Sell high/buy low with a special emphasis on youth. You have to get rid of guys like Hines Ward, Terrell Owens, Jamal Lewis, and Fred Taylor because they won't help you when you're ready to compete. Target picks and prospects. Try to focus on the unheralded guys because they're usually better values than the hyped guys, but be willing to spend big if you're 100% confident in a prospect's skills. I traded a 1st and a 3rd for Santonio Holmes after his rookie year. It was a steep price, but it worked out well. In the end, trading is always about moving the overvalued players on your roster for undervalued players. This holds true whether you're in first place or last place. Identify value and accumulate it.
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This is a good post, but I'm not sure how it relates to handling the situation of rookie picks in rebuild mode. Sell high/buy low is a universal them for value in any situation. But do you buy picks low? Or do you buy players low? Do you sell picks high? It's obvious that if you are rebuilding you have to get rid of guys like Hines Ward, TO, J. Lewis, etc. But, when getting rid of them, many teams get rid of them for picks instead of players already in the league. Is that the ideal to try and rebuild or not? This thread wasn't meant to be about value, but more about the method to rebuild, i.e. rookie picks vs. current younger players.
 
gianmarco said:
EBF said:
Sell high/buy low with a special emphasis on youth. You have to get rid of guys like Hines Ward, Terrell Owens, Jamal Lewis, and Fred Taylor because they won't help you when you're ready to compete. Target picks and prospects. Try to focus on the unheralded guys because they're usually better values than the hyped guys, but be willing to spend big if you're 100% confident in a prospect's skills. I traded a 1st and a 3rd for Santonio Holmes after his rookie year. It was a steep price, but it worked out well. In the end, trading is always about moving the overvalued players on your roster for undervalued players. This holds true whether you're in first place or last place. Identify value and accumulate it.
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This is a good post, but I'm not sure how it relates to handling the situation of rookie picks in rebuild mode. Sell high/buy low is a universal them for value in any situation. But do you buy picks low? Or do you buy players low? Do you sell picks high? It's obvious that if you are rebuilding you have to get rid of guys like Hines Ward, TO, J. Lewis, etc. But, when getting rid of them, many teams get rid of them for picks instead of players already in the league. Is that the ideal to try and rebuild or not? This thread wasn't meant to be about value, but more about the method to rebuild, i.e. rookie picks vs. current younger players.
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A proper rebuild is done by adding good, young players. This can be done by both trading for current players and picks, why would you limit yourself to just one or the other?
 
gianmarco said:
This is a good post, but I'm not sure how it relates to handling the situation of rookie picks in rebuild mode. Sell high/buy low is a universal them for value in any situation. But do you buy picks low? Or do you buy players low? Do you sell picks high?
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There's no set rule. You make different moves in different situations. Some picks are overvalued. Some are undervalued. Some prospects are overvalued. Some are undervalued. In general, the only rule that holds steady is buy low and sell high. You can have success rebuilding entirely with rookie picks, entirely with prospects, or with some combination of the two. As long as the players you acquire pan out, you'll be in good shape.
It's obvious that if you are rebuilding you have to get rid of guys like Hines Ward, TO, J. Lewis, etc. But, when getting rid of them, many teams get rid of them for picks instead of players already in the league. Is that the ideal to try and rebuild or not? This thread wasn't meant to be about value, but more about the method to rebuild, i.e. rookie picks vs. current younger players.
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There's no correct answer to your question. Sometimes the right move will be to load up on picks. Sometimes the right move will be to target certain established prospects. Usually a combination of both will be necessary. Think about last year. You could've had success with rookies (D. Bowe), sophomores (Marshall, Holmes, Jennings), or third year players (Roddy). You could've flopped with rookies (Davis, Meachem), sophomores (S. Moss, C. Jackson), or third year players (M. Jones, Williamson). It's not about picking the right method. It's about picking the right players.
 
This is a bit difficult to answer due to the variety of different dynasty set ups. I think the stockpiling of rookie picks works better in a league with very large rosters such as a zealots league. If you don't have huge rosters you can only roster so many prospects.

Trading established players with a shorter 2-3 year window for prospects and or picks is always a good option when rebuilding a team. The trick is to know when you need to rebuild and when to maximize the values of the players you need to move in the rebuild process. You also need to know when to go the other way. I think that is sometimes even more difficult. Trying to determine when to move some of the young decent players to upgrade to maybe an older but more productive player.

 
so the answer to ur question is no... I just took over a crappy team myself; not doing such a good job IMO.

This is what I have to work w/ for the rest of the yr...

Croyle, Brodie KCC QB - 6

Jackson, Tarvaris MIN QB - 8

Leinart, Matt ARI QB - 7

Manning, Eli NYG QB - 4

Quinn, Brady CLE QB - 5

Alexander, Shaun FA RB - -

Henry, Chris TEN RB - 6

McFadden, Darren OAK RB ® - 5

Thomas, Pierre NOS RB - 9

Bennett, Drew STL WR - 5

Berrian, Bernard MIN WR - 8

Curtis, Kevin PHI WR - 7

Gonzalez, Anthony IND WR - 4

Hester, Devin CHI WR - 8

Manningham, Mario NYG WR ® - 4

Sweed, Limas PIT WR ® - 6

Williams, Paul TEN WR - 6

Williams, Roydell TEN WR - 6

Keller, Dustin NYJ TE ® - 5

Witten, Jason DAL TE - 10

Kaeding, Nate SDC PK - 9

Redskins, Washington WAS Def - 10

 
I have rebuilded some MOSTER teams, i at times had 8 first rnd rookie picks and 7 on another league.

Thing is once you in rebuild mode you get rid of all somewhat older players and alot of rbbc type guys with not a certian future....(ie Fargas C.Brown types)

You also move those older starters as well like your Ward, J.Lewis, Drivers. Prospects with UPSIDE is what you wanna shoot for: Laurent Robinson's S.Rice's, M.Forte, K.Smith types.

Once you assembled so many rookie picks come next year during draft time, THOSE PICK VALUE will SKY ROCKET...you could trade a top 3 rookie pick for a very very good rb1. And so on depending on how much hype the rookie drafts has. But sometimes you make the pick, and add alot of nice youth to the team if you believe in them.

Also with rebuilding you gotta have PATIENCE, sometimes you gotta cash in on opportunity, but patience is a must. I have plenty of build up threads where i got some nice teams built doing this.

 
EBF said:
Ministry of Pain said:
FF is a game of studs, plain and simple...now ask yourself how many draft picks you make that are going to be studs. The count is low and they are hard to find. I wouldn't be so eager to throw away guys like TO...he still is a top3 WR in FF, not sure what you are going to upgrade to while he is busy scoring points for the Cowboys over the next 3-4 years.
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FF is also a game of depth. Depending on your league format, having quality guys like Laveranues Coles and Chris Chambers on your bench can be the difference between winning the championship and getting knocked out in the first round. It's definitely true that studs can carry teams to titles, but I've seen a lot of teams win because of good depth.3-4 years is an optimistic outlook for Owens. He's 34 years old. How many WR's remain in the top 20 between ages 35-38? Owens may very well be done as a useful FF player after 1-2 more years. I had him outside my top 20 receivers in my latest dynasty rankings. That may be a bit harsh, but he's no better than top 15 IMO. If you have a rebuilding team, he's useless.
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I disagree with this. If you're saying depth is more important at the expense of a stud then I disagree. I'd much rather take the chance with Owens than someone else with the depth of a Coles or Chambers. Winning in FF is about studs.
Not all rookie picks pan out, but many of them do. You can make a pretty strong case that guys like Dwayne Bowe, Greg Jennings, Santonio Holmes, and Calvin Johnson are worth more than TO in dynasty leagues right now. So when you consider that he probably only has 1-3 good years left, it's not a huge reach to take the 35-50% gamble on a rookie WR instead.
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Again, I'd far rather have Owens than any of those guys. There's a good chance that none of those guys will ever reach Owens' level. I'll take the chance that Owens produces 2 more years at an extremely high level vs one of those guys producing at a level even close to Owens. And, you have to pick the right guy.Ride your studs to the grave.
 
BuckeyeArt said:
I disagree with this. If you're saying depth is more important at the expense of a stud then I disagree. I'd much rather take the chance with Owens than someone else with the depth of a Coles or Chambers. Winning in FF is about studs.
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There are a lot of ways to skin a cat. I've been playing FF for a long time and I've seen a lot of teams win titles because of depth. It definitely helps if you have one or two of your guys blow up like LT in 2006 or Brady in 2007, but it's not necessary. Often times the team that wins the title isn't the wire-to-wire leader, but rather a fringe playoff team whose players get hot at the right time. Saying it's all about studs just isn't accurate.
Again, I'd far rather have Owens than any of those guys. There's a good chance that none of those guys will ever reach Owens' level. I'll take the chance that Owens produces 2 more years at an extremely high level vs one of those guys producing at a level even close to Owens.
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In a vacuum Owens might have more value than a guy like Jennings, but this discussion is in the context of a rebuilding team. In the context of a rebuilding team there's no doubt that I'd rather have a guy like Holmes or Bowe. They at least have a reasonable chance to be top 15-20 receivers in two years whereas Owens might be retired. I know he's a freak athlete who takes great care of his body, but no one outruns father time. Outside of Joey Galloway, how many 35+ year old receivers were in the top 20 last season? I think Engram may have been the only other one. The odds certainly aren't good when you talk about old receivers sustaining elite production. Many of the guys from TO's draft class have already started to slip considerably (Muhammad, Moulds, etc). He probably isn't too far behind.I agree that "there's a good chance none of those guys will ever reach Owens' level." In fact, I feel pretty confident saying none of them ever will. But I still don't agree that they have less value. Five seasons of top 20 production might be more valuable than one season of top 5 production. To a certain extent it's a matter of philosophy and team composition. One of the reasons why I don't like to do dynasty rankings anymore is because dynasty value hinges heavily on team composition. A guy like Owens is virtually worthless to a last place team with no shot of competing whereas he holds significant value for a surefire playoff team.Anyhow, a guy like Owens is a no-brainer sell high when you're in rebuilding mode. I said the same thing about guys like Alexander and Harrison when they were still considered studs. There comes a point where you have to dump your stars. Owens is definitely at that point.
 
1. A successful rebuild is all about value. Tradeing is all about value and negotiation . Dynasty is all about value... that's why those who love it really love it. That's why some teams will always be bad and others will always be good. Your management of value and ability to negotiate determines your success.

2. Rookie pick value is usually lower pre and mid season. Its higher post season and usually peaks on the eve of your draft. However there are two sides to a trade and its really not about when you trade - its about the value you receive. A little more or a little less isnt doesnt usually determine the success of the trade. It comes down to who you end up with, not what some rankings valuator says you got. Studs are far more valueable than Joes. Dont be afraid of pulling the trigger on a deal because of what time of year it is. A person can bargain shop 356 days a year.

 
EBF said:
BuckeyeArt said:
I disagree with this. If you're saying depth is more important at the expense of a stud then I disagree. I'd much rather take the chance with Owens than someone else with the depth of a Coles or Chambers. Winning in FF is about studs.
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There are a lot of ways to skin a cat. I've been playing FF for a long time and I've seen a lot of teams win titles because of depth. It definitely helps if you have one or two of your guys blow up like LT in 2006 or Brady in 2007, but it's not necessary. Often times the team that wins the title isn't the wire-to-wire leader, but rather a fringe playoff team whose players get hot at the right time. Saying it's all about studs just isn't accurate.
Again, I'd far rather have Owens than any of those guys. There's a good chance that none of those guys will ever reach Owens' level. I'll take the chance that Owens produces 2 more years at an extremely high level vs one of those guys producing at a level even close to Owens.
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In a vacuum Owens might have more value than a guy like Jennings, but this discussion is in the context of a rebuilding team. In the context of a rebuilding team there's no doubt that I'd rather have a guy like Holmes or Bowe. They at least have a reasonable chance to be top 15-20 receivers in two years whereas Owens might be retired. I know he's a freak athlete who takes great care of his body, but no one outruns father time. Outside of Joey Galloway, how many 35+ year old receivers were in the top 20 last season? I think Engram may have been the only other one. The odds certainly aren't good when you talk about old receivers sustaining elite production. Many of the guys from TO's draft class have already started to slip considerably (Muhammad, Moulds, etc). He probably isn't too far behind.I agree that "there's a good chance none of those guys will ever reach Owens' level." In fact, I feel pretty confident saying none of them ever will. But I still don't agree that they have less value. Five seasons of top 20 production might be more valuable than one season of top 5 production. To a certain extent it's a matter of philosophy and team composition. One of the reasons why I don't like to do dynasty rankings anymore is because dynasty value hinges heavily on team composition. A guy like Owens is virtually worthless to a last place team with no shot of competing whereas he holds significant value for a surefire playoff team.Anyhow, a guy like Owens is a no-brainer sell high when you're in rebuilding mode. I said the same thing about guys like Alexander and Harrison when they were still considered studs. There comes a point where you have to dump your stars. Owens is definitely at that point.
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Jerry Rice was a pro-bowl WR at 40. TO might not be Rice, but if any WR can do it, why not TO?There does come a point where you dump your stars, it's called retirement. But this comes from a philosophy that says I'd rather have a top 3 WR for 2 years, then find a new WR after that, vs. having a WR that will be top 20 for 8 (which is longer than I'd forecast anyway)
 
UnknownCoach said:
1. A successful rebuild is all about value. Tradeing is all about value and negotiation . Dynasty is all about value... that's why those who love it really love it. That's why some teams will always be bad and others will always be good. Your management of value and ability to negotiate determines your success.

2. Rookie pick value is usually lower pre and mid season. Its higher post season and usually peaks on the eve of your draft. However there are two sides to a trade and its really not about when you trade - its about the value you receive. A little more or a little less isnt doesnt usually determine the success of the trade. It comes down to who you end up with, not what some rankings valuator says you got. Studs are far more valueable than Joes. Dont be afraid of pulling the trigger on a deal because of what time of year it is. A person can bargain shop 356 days a year.
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taking off the holidays?
 
There are many ways to rebuild, but one thing is true - you will have some work cut out for you.

It will take time - but real time (2-3 years likely) to see results but also to craft trades and make lots of offers to get workable deals. That's why I tend to shy away from them anymore, as I just don't have the time to give to put forth that level of effort any longer. Plus I personally am in a larger number of leagues and that's just my personal preference.

As for the OP, yes it does make sense to stockpile picks - but that's an incomplete answer. You stockpile the picks because you are accumulating value - any value - that you can obtain. The question then becomes one of how to use that stockpile. Do you use the picks yourself? Do you trade them away? A combination?

A combo is likely the best answer because of the risk of rookies (50% bust, it is just a fact), but a team can re-tool and rebuild quickly if they have 5-6 Top 25 picks for the next season and uses them wisely.

Pick a time when you think you can compete - maybe in 2 seasons - and trade everything away that will have little or no value between now and then. Collect assets that will have value in 2-3 years (or longer) and ALWAYS work with that in mind. Then decide if you want to pick a certain rookie or trade the pick for a veteran.

 
FUBAR said:
Jerry Rice was a pro-bowl WR at 40. TO might not be Rice, but if any WR can do it, why not TO?
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TO's game is predicated on physical dominance. Physical skills erode in the 30's. Once he loses his burst, what's he gonna do? He's not a route running technician like Isaac Bruce, Jerry Rice, or Rod Smith.Someone like Torry Holt has a much better chance to be productive into his late 30's.
There does come a point where you dump your stars, it's called retirement. But this comes from a philosophy that says I'd rather have a top 3 WR for 2 years, then find a new WR after that, vs. having a WR that will be top 20 for 8 (which is longer than I'd forecast anyway)
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Fair enough, but I've seen countless people get burned by this type of thinking with Faulk, Alexander, Harrison, and Holmes. You hold an aging star at your own peril. TO is 34. He'll turn 35 near the end of next season. Needless to say, the track record of 35 year old receivers is not that good. I would advise any rebuilding team to dump Owens. Moreover, I would strongly consider dumping him even if you're not rebuilding. His value will only decrease over the next 1-3 years.
 
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I don't understand the concept of rebuilding. FF is too much of a crapshoot. Compete every year. Thanks for mailing it in on Jamal Lewis.

 
EBF said:
FUBAR said:
Jerry Rice was a pro-bowl WR at 40. TO might not be Rice, but if any WR can do it, why not TO?
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TO's game is predicated on physical dominance. Physical skills erode in the 30's. Once he loses his burst, what's he gonna do? He's not a route running technician like Isaac Bruce, Jerry Rice, or Rod Smith.Someone like Torry Holt has a much better chance to be productive into his late 30's.
There does come a point where you dump your stars, it's called retirement. But this comes from a philosophy that says I'd rather have a top 3 WR for 2 years, then find a new WR after that, vs. having a WR that will be top 20 for 8 (which is longer than I'd forecast anyway)
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Fair enough, but I've seen countless people get burned by this type of thinking with Faulk, Alexander, Harrison, and Holmes. You hold an aging star at your own peril. TO is 34. He'll turn 35 near the end of next season. Needless to say, the track record of 35 year old receivers is not that good. I would advise any rebuilding team to dump Owens. Moreover, I would strongly consider dumping him even if you're not rebuilding. His value will only decrease over the next 1-3 years.
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You're right that TO's game is more physical, but I have yet to see any indication of him slowing down. Probably won't dominate to 40, but next 2 years isn't an issue IMO. I suppose I just enjoy the challenge of rebuilding while enjoying winning enough to not mind winning today, rebuilding tomorrow instead of giving away points today in the hope that my newly acquired WR2 caliber player helps me win later. If I can get Braylon, Fitz, or even a guy like Marshall, I might take them for TO, but those players usually won't be dealt for TO. I never "dump" players unless they're WW fodder.
 
FUBAR said:
UnknownCoach said:
1. A successful rebuild is all about value. Tradeing is all about value and negotiation . Dynasty is all about value... that's why those who love it really love it. That's why some teams will always be bad and others will always be good. Your management of value and ability to negotiate determines your success.

2. Rookie pick value is usually lower pre and mid season. Its higher post season and usually peaks on the eve of your draft. However there are two sides to a trade and its really not about when you trade - its about the value you receive. A little more or a little less isnt doesnt usually determine the success of the trade. It comes down to who you end up with, not what some rankings valuator says you got. Studs are far more valueable than Joes. Dont be afraid of pulling the trigger on a deal because of what time of year it is. A person can bargain shop 356 days a year.
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taking off the holidays?
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I figure at least 9 days when I'm too wasted to know what a bargain is.
 
I personally think that owners in dynasty leagues value rookie picks too much. Of course they're valuable but some owners are obsessed with trying to focus on rookie draft and they forget what the league is about.....to win it.

I don't trade players like Terell Owens. Those are the guys that help you win championships. Unless the trade was borderline ridiculous, I wouldn't give him up and I've found over the years if a trade is borderline ridiculous, I'm skeptical in dynasty leagues that the owner isn't selling the farm to win now or next year only to drop out of the league sooner than later and not worry about any hole they've dug their team into.

Hines Ward or Fred Taylor, sure I'd trade players like that, but what are you going to get for those guys? Are there dynasty owners out there really wanting to give away high draft picks for players like that? I'm not a genius for suggesting that I'd trade Hines Ward to a team for a 1st round rookie pick, the problem is getting that offer first.

Look at this year's rookie picks. Let's say you had the first pick or maybe you stockpiled and had 2 out of the first 5 picks.

You traded away Terell Owens to get one of them. Who did you get? I think selecting any rookie in the entire draft is risky, there's nothing close to a sure thing compared to what Terell Owens is going to do the next 2 years.

I do agree that's there's more than one way to get things done, and some owners may be very good at acquiring picks and getting a lot of young talented players continously, that's great. I kind of do the opposite, I know those guys in the league who love rookie picks and would be willing to part with players that will help me compete now.

 
Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
I personally think that owners in dynasty leagues value rookie picks too much. Of course they're valuable but some owners are obsessed with trying to focus on rookie draft and they forget what the league is about.....to win it.I don't trade players like Terell Owens. Those are the guys that help you win championships. Unless the trade was borderline ridiculous, I wouldn't give him up and I've found over the years if a trade is borderline ridiculous, I'm skeptical in dynasty leagues that the owner isn't selling the farm to win now or next year only to drop out of the league sooner than later and not worry about any hole they've dug their team into.
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Dynasty leagues are marathons. It is also desirable to win the league in years to come.I traded the top pick in a no RB required league (last year only 4 RB's were in the top 30 while 4 LB'ers and 8 WR's were) for 2.12, 3.05, 1.12, 2.12, 3.12 rookies. It all depends on your league. In this league WR'd are worth as much as RB's and can be picked later.My trade so far is AP for Steve Smith/Keith Rivers plus 9 more picks (although the 2 in the 2nd and the 2 in the 3rd are the most valuable).
 
Crippler said:
I have never seen a full rebuild work. In my one dynasty league an owner has had 19 1st over the last 8 years and has missed the playoffs each and every year. The most successful rebullds are the guys that go in the tank to get a high 1st one year or 2 and than trade away all the youth to bring in the studs they need along with the top picks they have received. I did this a few years ago in another league, even though with selling off, I still only ended up with pick 6 as best one and than traded all those picks again and finished with 2nd best record in year 1 and regular season title in year 2. Brought in Rivers, Holt, Fitz, Gates and Shockey with the picks and youth in the end. Some good trades and some bad ones of course. Another owner just did it last year and has a decent team but he needs the superstars now to be a competitor again. Deep team now though which is what would happen in the perfect worldPicks are such crapshoots overall. In my main league, the success rate of 1st round has been under 50% success and 2nd round has been about 41 with one owner holding like an 85% in the 2nd and alot of the picks
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I did it. Finished dead last in 2004 and had back to back 3-10 seasons (2004 & 2005) after trading away Harrison, Brees, Brady, (way before he was anything), Porter after his 9 TD year. In 2006, with the rebuild almost complete, finished 7-6. Last year, made the championship game. It can be done. Many of my starters are 2nd rounders from previous dynasty drafts. You don't need 1st rounders. Just a lot of early 2nds (Gore, Marshall, Jennings). While the weaker owners read a magazine to find out who to take, I watch the combine, the workouts, read the OTA reports and minicamp reports. That is where you find Laurent Robinson and realize that Jarrett and Meachem are bums. If Favre does come back and play for the Pack, I will have amassed the strongest team I have ever had. Even topping Favre, Rice, Brown, Sharpe from the mid 90's.
 
gianmarco said:
Curious what some people think of this. We often see teams that realize they need to rebuild and start over trade known players, usually older vets, for rookie picks. However, is that really the way to go? Does acquiring a larger # of picks really help you achieve a competing team effectively? Given that many rookie picks don't pan out plus the fact that you have to wait for them to even see if they are worth it or not, this strategy could potentially prolong a period of noncompetitiveness.If you aren't going to trade for rookie picks, is it better to trade for cheaper 1st/2nd year players with upside? Or possibly to acquire the rookie picks and then trade them closer to the draft as their value increases for known, younger players. Just wanted to see some thoughts on this.
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If you have an eye for college talent there is no question, trading away decent to good (older) players and stock piling draft picks is the way to go.
 
Jeff Pasquino said:
Pick a time when you think you can compete - maybe in 2 seasons - and trade everything away that will have little or no value between now and then. Collect assets that will have value in 2-3 years (or longer) and ALWAYS work with that in mind. Then decide if you want to pick a certain rookie or trade the pick for a veteran.
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There have been allot of sound advice offered in this thread (trading for value, the time to trade and trade for rookie picks - taking advantage of rookie hype, etc.) but this point made by Jeff is crucial. Too many owners in my opinion are over optimistic of their teams chance of competing for a championship. You need to be honest with yourself in dynasty. I always look at the top 2-3 teams in my leagues & if I know I don't have the team to compete with those teams - even if I acquire a stud or two...then I gut my team. I look at what players I want to build my core from (usually rookies/2nd/3rd year guys) and cut bait on most of my veterans on the downside of their career. The time to trade those vets is around week 8-12 when the better teams are gearing up for the playoffs and feel 1-2 aging, but still very productive veterans will give them a chance of taking home the cash & the trophy that season. If I have a team that I think can compete for a title...then I will be on the other end of those trades....trading away my rookie picks for the next season to acquire a player(s) slightly past their prime but can help me win now. When I see owners trading for rookies and then trading for veteran players I'm confused. You need a mix of youth and vets, but to have key components of your team peaking at at different times isn't the best approach IMO. You need to gear your team so that it's firing on all cylinders for a 2-4 year stretch when you can take home some titles. Unless you are in a league of idiots....being able to year after year have a top 5 dynasty team isn't going to work. With astute owners....it's very unlikely to win year after year in dynasty formats so you need to build your team to win in stretches and then rebuild.
 
UnknownCoach said:
1. A successful rebuild is all about value. Tradeing is all about value and negotiation . Dynasty is all about value... that's why those who love it really love it. That's why some teams will always be bad and others will always be good. Your management of value and ability to negotiate determines your success.2. Rookie pick value is usually lower pre and mid season. Its higher post season and usually peaks on the eve of your draft. However there are two sides to a trade and its really not about when you trade - its about the value you receive. A little more or a little less isnt doesnt usually determine the success of the trade. It comes down to who you end up with, not what some rankings valuator says you got. Studs are far more valueable than Joes. Dont be afraid of pulling the trigger on a deal because of what time of year it is. A person can bargain shop 356 days a year.
Click to expand...
:confused: I would not want to rely on rookie draft picks for two reasons, they simply take too long, are too expensive to get. Unless you can get multiple picks per round in the early rounds (1-2-3); the chances are too low you will get enough "hits" to make a difference on your overall roster by going the rookie route. However, augmenting rookie draft picks with key free agent signings and trades is just as important or more important IMHO. I have been rebuilding a team since 2005. I am documenting it, I began with almost no talent other than a few guys like Hines Ward and Warrick Dunn, and I actually launched the process the wrong way--by straying from value--I traded 5 total high rookie draft picks for Ronnie Brown , and from there I added the other core players that i can grow and trade. The key to getting a competitive team going into this year was that the later players came at MUCH BETTER values like W.Parker, M. Colston and Jason Witten which were built around: roster (for those who care...QB1 David Garrard - (acq. in trade) ; J.Kitna (acq. in trade) Joe Flacco - drafted third round; QB Josh Johnson (drafted 7th round)RB Willie Parker -- street free agent (later traded for multiple picks -which was leveraged to get *SJAX* who is currnetly my best player) RB Ronnie Brown -- (acq. in trade for multiple costly picks) ; RB Chester Taylor -bidding war; Ray Rice -- drafted third round; Lorenzo Booker --street free agentWR Marques Colston, -- street free agent; Wes Welker -- won in a bidding war; Chris Chambers-- won in a bidding war; Laurent Robinson (acq. in trade)Vincent Jackson -- drafted fourth round; Sidney Rice --drafted 3rd round (*later traded) ; Jerome simpson --drafted 3rd round; Ronald Currty - bidding warTE Jason Witten -- won in a bidding war; Kevin Boss -- drafted 5th round; Ben Patrick - street free agentLB: KDansby, EJ Henderson, Witherspoon, M.Wilhelm, G.Wilkinson; Bradie James, L.Woodley; S.Tulloch, Cato JuneDL: A.Kampan; K. Vandenbosh JustinTuck; Chris Long; D.DockettS: B.Pollard, A.Rolle, SensabaughCB: Rashean Mathis, A.Cason, Chevis Jackson
 
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One thing to consider is your own personality and strenghts as a fantasy player. In a rebuild mode where you are relying heavily on rookie picks you need the stomach and maybe the wallet to survive through a couple of 4 win, next to last in the in scoring seasons. I know plenty of guys who can't to that. Also, are you better than average at identifying college talent or at least willing to commit to knowing that if you hit on 50% of those rookies picks you are doing outstanding. Also, don't forget to work the WW as you can get talent to stash and/or trade. The final thing that has not been mentioned because we like to assume the best, but how stable is the league overall. In other words, does it have a good commish and solid group of owners where you can see the multiple years of work to the finish?

 
identikit said:
gianmarco said:
Curious what some people think of this. We often see teams that realize they need to rebuild and start over trade known players, usually older vets, for rookie picks. However, is that really the way to go? Does acquiring a larger # of picks really help you achieve a competing team effectively? Given that many rookie picks don't pan out plus the fact that you have to wait for them to even see if they are worth it or not, this strategy could potentially prolong a period of noncompetitiveness.

If you aren't going to trade for rookie picks, is it better to trade for cheaper 1st/2nd year players with upside? Or possibly to acquire the rookie picks and then trade them closer to the draft as their value increases for known, younger players. Just wanted to see some thoughts on this.
Click to expand...
Excellent topic...I tend to lean toward the bolded option.

I think loading up on draft picks and rolling the dice with rookies is the path to a lonnng rebuild. I'm not a fan of the Soviet style '5 year plan'.

A blend of the two, a few good draft picks and trading of established players for young players that have shown some ablity, would be my ideal route.
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I like younger players rather than draft picks as well. Not only will they help you sooner, but they are normally cheaper than draft picks.
 
You need to do a combination of both. To successfully rebuild, you need to admit that your team as assembled isn't going anywhere. So anyone that is old on your roster must go. I look for 2nd and 3rd year players that have talent, but have not performed to their talent level yet. Some guys that are great targets are Robert Meachum, Craig "Buster Davis" and Steve Smith. It takes receivers a couple of years to play well, and you can really get some good bargains (I was able to get Eric Moulds and Chad Johnson this way in years past).

And the most important thing to do is draft talent in rookie drafts, not opportunity. That is the biggest mistake people make. Kevin Smith and Matt Forte are going to be perfect examples. While people drool over these two, I will gladly scoop up Ray Rice and Felix Jones. They are stuck behind players right now, but they are the superior talents.

 
FUBAR said:
I suppose I just enjoy the challenge of rebuilding while enjoying winning enough to not mind winning today, rebuilding tomorrow instead of giving away points today in the hope that my newly acquired WR2 caliber player helps me win later. If I can get Braylon, Fitz, or even a guy like Marshall, I might take them for TO, but those players usually won't be dealt for TO. I never "dump" players unless they're WW fodder.
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I am a fan of T.O. and like him a lot. And I have all three of those guys in one league and would not trade either of them for Owens.
 
You have to play to win every year IMO. I was a fan of rebuilding when I first started playing dynasty but found that the most successful owners are the ones that play to have the best players at each position no matter what the age. This will burn you about every 3-4 years but your window on winning is longer than those who constantly try to go for youth movements.

Side note: When you have that bad season make sure you sell during the year to those teams in the race. They will over pay with their picks in the offseason draft.

 
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Jeff Pasquino said:
There are many ways to rebuild, but one thing is true - you will have some work cut out for you.

It will take time - but real time (2-3 years likely) to see results but also to craft trades and make lots of offers to get workable deals. That's why I tend to shy away from them anymore, as I just don't have the time to give to put forth that level of effort any longer. Plus I personally am in a larger number of leagues and that's just my personal preference.
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I agree and would go so far as to say that of teams that need rebuilding, most that I have seen available we are talking realistically about a 3-5 year time frame before they will be truly competative, rather than 2-3.It takes patience to rebuild a bad team, and from my experience most owners in a rebuilding process don't have the patience required to endure more than a year or two of a 3-10 finish before they switch to a "win now" strategy and inevitably start trading developmental players and future 1st round picks for a player they think they can win with this year. It rarely works out and usually sets back their rebuilding another year or two.

We all want to win this year, but if you are truly serious about rebuilding a bad team, then you should not deviate from your long term goal because you don't see immediate results the first year or two.

On an unrelated note, I would avoid leagues that use blind bidding for free agents. It makes rebuilding that much harder when you have the worst record in the league but can't acquire the top free agents because someone more skilled in the blind bidding process consistently outbids you. In one league I am in that has blind bidding, it is the best teams, not the worst, that are the ones who usually end up with the top free agents.

 
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Rookie picks outside of the first couple picks of the 1st round are the most overrated thing in fantasy football. If you're constantly trading for 2nd round picks and picks in the middle/end of the 1st round then you're going to be in rebuild mode for the rest of your life.

 
Balco said:
You need to do a combination of both. To successfully rebuild, you need to admit that your team as assembled isn't going anywhere. So anyone that is old on your roster must go. I look for 2nd and 3rd year players that have talent, but have not performed to their talent level yet. Some guys that are great targets are Robert Meachum, Craig "Buster Davis" and Steve Smith. It takes receivers a couple of years to play well, and you can really get some good bargains (I was able to get Eric Moulds and Chad Johnson this way in years past).

And the most important thing to do is draft talent in rookie drafts, not opportunity. That is the biggest mistake people make. Kevin Smith and Matt Forte are going to be perfect examples. While people drool over these two, I will gladly scoop up Ray Rice and Felix Jones. They are stuck behind players right now, but they are the superior talents.
Click to expand...
I like Balco's combination approach the best, but would not get rid of "old" players on that basis alone. Unless you have just bought a team that the previous owner blew up, you should try to keep a core group of players that can compete. In my many years of playing FF, it is seldom the "best" team on paper that brings home the trophy. Stay competitive and you always have a chance. The difference in a dynasty league is that you have to keep a few roster spots reserved for growing future studs. This will insure that you remain competitive year after year. The size of your league dictates how early in their development you can afford to roster them. If you are in a deep league, stock talent, not situation.

One last comment, remember to stay active during the season on the waiver wire. Scouts and writers can only measure potential. Once the real season begins, don't hesitate to re-evaluate once you can see for yourself how these guys perform in real battles. Don't get hung up on a player like Meachem or Jarrett just because you spent a high draft pick on them.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Rookie picks outside of the first couple picks of the 1st round are the most overrated thing in fantasy football. If you're constantly trading for 2nd round picks and picks in the middle/end of the 1st round then you're going to be in rebuild mode for the rest of your life.
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This is generally right. Those later picks are overvalued by most dynasty owners and therefore are prohibitive to aquire. Instead of overpaying for those middle/late first picks, instead I like to trade the pick or even better I use the pick and let others overpay for it. Let the player develope a year or two where he is showing some glimmer of promise and then sell Him high. Attaching yourself to them can be a big problem in using their value. My point is there are always some good players to be had in the middle. They can be used in trade to strengthen your roster through trade.Buy low and sell high right?
 
Having done one complete roster rebuild, and two semi-rebuilds, I've got no problems at all stockpiling draft picks, but as others have mentioned, you have to work all sides of the table to rebuild - draft well, work the waiver wire, and make deals. To everyone who says that drafting is a crap shoot, I'd like to suggest that some people draft better than others. While nobody's perfect, if one can draft well, it makes all the difference in the world when it comes to answering the OP's question.

 
crnerblitz said:
FreeBaGeL said:
Rookie picks outside of the first couple picks of the 1st round are the most overrated thing in fantasy football. If you're constantly trading for 2nd round picks and picks in the middle/end of the 1st round then you're going to be in rebuild mode for the rest of your life.
Click to expand...
This is generally right. Those later picks are overvalued by most dynasty owners and therefore are prohibitive to aquire. Instead of overpaying for those middle/late first picks, instead I like to trade the pick or even better I use the pick and let others overpay for it. Let the player develope a year or two where he is showing some glimmer of promise and then sell Him high. Attaching yourself to them can be a big problem in using their value. My point is there are always some good players to be had in the middle. They can be used in trade to strengthen your roster through trade.Buy low and sell high right?
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Sure, that;s the theory, but I always find it extremely difficult to trade those former late 1st round picks who have shown a glimmer of promise for more than another late 1st or what I could have gotten for the pick in the first place. I;m curious though, do you mean guys like Holmes or MJD, or Artrose Pinner?
 
Well, In one league I had drafted Garrard at 3.4 in 2002. I also took Alex Smith at 1.5 in 2004. I traded them both in June 07 for the 1.03 which was Calvin Johnson.

Yes these mid/late picks are land mines. Some end up as Pinners and J. Wells. Others as Holmes and MJD's. I'm not going to tell you whom to draft. FBG's has a whole staff of quality touts for that. I'm just saying that the average joe can wring more value out of those draft spots if you have a sharp eye for opportunity and a trader’s mindset.

 
Mister CIA said:
Having done one complete roster rebuild, and two semi-rebuilds, I've got no problems at all stockpiling draft picks, but as others have mentioned, you have to work all sides of the table to rebuild - draft well, work the waiver wire, and make deals. To everyone who says that drafting is a crap shoot, I'd like to suggest that some people draft better than others. While nobody's perfect, if one can draft well, it makes all the difference in the world when it comes to answering the OP's question.
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the other side of this is being completely honest with yourself. while all of us like to think we're great drafters, not all of us are. If you're not a good drafter, trade.
 
FreeBaGeL said:
Rookie picks outside of the first couple picks of the 1st round are the most overrated thing in fantasy football. If you're constantly trading for 2nd round picks and picks in the middle/end of the 1st round then you're going to be in rebuild mode for the rest of your life.
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In IDP leagues, picks in the top 2 rounds are quite useful - there are a lot more starting spots, so you have more opportunity to find a stud who helps you.
 
Excellent topic...I tend to lean toward the bolded option.I think loading up on draft picks and rolling the dice with rookies is the path to a lonnng rebuild. I'm not a fan of the Soviet style '5 year plan'.A blend of the two, a few good draft picks and trading of established players for young players that have shown some ablity, would be my ideal route.
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:goodposting:
 
Ive been in Dyansty leagues for 13 years, Ive tried the draft to rebuild, Took Koren Robinson, David Terrell and Rod Gardner in the same year tring to rebuild my WR. That set me back a few years, So i traded 3 first round pick 1,4,8 For LT after his 2nd year, than traded 2 first picks 2 and 3 for Fitz and J Walker, Traded during the season for a Braylon Edwards when he was out for the year. Pick up Randy Moss his last year in OAK got him cheap. I now targed players I want, I try to trade all my 1st round pick after the NFL draft and get max value. I just Traded my 1st this year #11 overall in our rookie/FA draft for Reggie Bush. With that pick id of gotten a WR that would be 3 years from playing so I gambled that Reggie Bush pans out, but if he doesnt it dosent kill me.

Garrad FA

Garcia FA

Tomlinson Trade

Turner drafted as a back up

Bush Traded for

Watson FA

Moss traded for

Edwards traded for

Fitz traded for

Reggie Williams FA

Terry glenn FA

Kicker NE cant spell it traded for

we have IPDs

Kerney Drafed 4th round

Urlacker picked him his rookie year with the last pick in Draft

Harris FA

Rudd FA

Knight FA

 
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