If it happens the market will go south anyway. It'll just take a little longer.I meant I agreed with him on the gov pushing the nothing to see here angle to save the markets.Not really.I actually had a pretty good laugh.
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Meltdown in Japan's Reactors (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
Otis
Footballguy
That's what happened during the swine flu ordeal. Ham went shopping for 18months worth of supplies and then locked his family in the zombie cellar while he blogged away about end times on the FFA. Guy was totally deflated when he came up for air and saw that they weren't out piling the dead waist high. I seriously think the only thing separating Ham each month from the lunatic homeless guy holding the THE END IS NEAR sign is a mortgage payment.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
Wow. That is some dedication or stupidity. Probably both.
David Dodds
Administrator
What parts do we disagree with?1. Multiple reactors are down and Japan is saying they are undergoing "partial" meltdowns.2. In one reactor they are destroying it in place by dumping sea water on it as a "hail mary" to cool it down.3. The steam they are creating has to be radioactive (contains cesium) and they are venting that into the air.4. 160,000+ people have been evacuated in a 12 mile radius.6. At least 4 reactors look like they will never be brought back up.7. Hydrogen explosions have happened in one and is predicted in at least a second reactor. The one explosion was so strong that it blew apart the concrete and reinforced steel casing, yet magically did not damage any of the containment facility.8. It's completely safe, but I keep seeing pictures of people from the government in full body suits.9. The energy company in control of this has had multiple violations in the past for not releasing factual info.Again I think I have the same news as everyone. These reactors are in deep trouble. I remain hopeful that they can contain the radiation. That's the best case right now and I hope it completely plays out where people will not be exposed to radiation.
Otis
Footballguy
There are so many problems with your list of facts here, but I'll just pick one example that stands out. You dont think they'd do this as a precaution either way?
David Dodds
Administrator
I stand corrected. The Nikkei is down 6+% right now despite the Bank of Japan pumping in $183 Billion this morning.
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Routilla
Footballguy
This seemed like a pretty non-biased article explaining the current problems and the construction of the reactors. The parts about how the Cesium and Iodine may be released is a concern, but the further explanation about their half-life and behavior characteristics upon entering the environment show them to have minimal effects.
Otis
Footballguy
How does this relate to the meltdown?
David Dodds
Administrator
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/video-reactor-3-explosion
Just steam I suppose. Nothing to see here.
Just steam I suppose. Nothing to see here.
Rohn Jambo
Footballguy
I bet he is elated that he may finally be able to use his stockpile of face masks if any radiation comes across the Pacific.
Rohn Jambo
Footballguy
6% can barely qualify for partial meltdown.
Fennis
Footballguy
It's normal, explosions are good.
timschochet
Footballguy
Well I took the kids to Disneyland today. I figured if the apocalypse is coming we might as well enjoy ourselves while we can.
Based on the crowds, it looked like a lot of people had the same idea.
Based on the crowds, it looked like a lot of people had the same idea.
Rohn Jambo
Footballguy
Same as day one.
Leviathan
Footballguy
I stand corrected. From now on I'll remember that threeI meant I agreed with him on the gov pushing the nothing to see here angle to save the markets.Not really.I actually had a pretty good laugh.
emoticons in a row has a deeper meaning....
Otis
Footballguy
I'll wait for someone other than the worldbeaters over at zerohedge.com to tell me it's a problem.
Fennis
Footballguy
Rohn Jambo
Footballguy
Dr. Sanjay Gupta is in Japan now and taking questions. Is this is the guy who turned down Obama's nomination for surgeon general?Link
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
Another explosion of a similar "look" at the same site.
Incogneto
Footballguy
I'm gonna need a Bulgarian link...
David Dodds
Administrator
http://www.nytimes.c...plume.html?_r=1
Military Crew Said to Be Exposed to Radiation, but Officials Call Risk in U.S. Slight
Good news for the United States, but radiation is definitely leaking out. Not good news for Japan.
Military Crew Said to Be Exposed to Radiation, but Officials Call Risk in U.S. Slight
Good news for the United States, but radiation is definitely leaking out. Not good news for Japan.
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Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
I don't want to downplay the radiation. The fact that it exists at that level that far out at sea means there is a lot more of it coming. However, a months worth of radiation by Navy standards is miniscule. A chain smoker on board would not notice the difference.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Want to make a bet on whether the PR battle plays out that way?
Rohn Jambo
Footballguy
OOF. Who sails straight into a radioactive cloud? They are sailors and should understand how the wind works.
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Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
Now it is apparent that the discharge of the cesium and iodine laced steam will continue for quite some time. They apparently housed the backup generators under sea-level in a tragic stroke of engineering overconfidence. And the electrical distribution is also flooded and they have no sustainable method of operating the pumps. Who knows if it is safe to operate as the gauges are all fouled up? No I&C and operators are flying blind.
The normal process of shutting down a nuclear plant involves pumping coolant to a heat exchanger and bringing in “fresh” water to carry off the heat to discharge. I stress that the heat exchanger is key to this process as it is a sink for radioactivity. They need to find a heat sink and a controlled process for establishing an alternative primary loop flow. Once they have the heat exchanger in place, they can shunt the radioactive materials from that effluent. They can’t continue to vent seawater steam. The “feed and bleed” is only a short term fix. They need to pump the electric distribution basement and reestablish power.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/14/world/asia/japan-fukushima-nuclear-reactor.html?pagewanted=2&ref=todayspaper&adxnnlx=1300104183-UWSKhZUbH2W48vF5f/2eDA
The normal process of shutting down a nuclear plant involves pumping coolant to a heat exchanger and bringing in “fresh” water to carry off the heat to discharge. I stress that the heat exchanger is key to this process as it is a sink for radioactivity. They need to find a heat sink and a controlled process for establishing an alternative primary loop flow. Once they have the heat exchanger in place, they can shunt the radioactive materials from that effluent. They can’t continue to vent seawater steam. The “feed and bleed” is only a short term fix. They need to pump the electric distribution basement and reestablish power.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/14/world/asia/japan-fukushima-nuclear-reactor.html?pagewanted=2&ref=todayspaper&adxnnlx=1300104183-UWSKhZUbH2W48vF5f/2eDA
David Dodds
Administrator
Fuel rods at No. 2 reactor of Fukushima No. 1 nuke plant fully exposed
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/77854.html
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/77854.html
timschochet
Footballguy
A thoughtful piece from the Wall Street Journal. Hopefully it will calm a few people down:
Even while thousands of people are reported dead or missing, whole neighborhoods lie in ruins, and gas and oil fires rage out of control, press coverage of the Japanese earthquake has quickly settled on the troubles at two nuclear reactors as the center of the catastrophe.
Rep. Ed Markey (D., Mass.), a longtime opponent of nuclear power, has warned of "another Chernobyl" and predicted "the same thing could happen here." In response, he has called for an immediate suspension of licensing procedures for the Westinghouse AP1000, a "Generation III" reactor that has been laboring through design review at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for seven years.
Before we respond with such panic, though, it would be useful to review exactly what is happening in Japan and what we have to fear from it.
The core of a nuclear reactor operates at about 550 degrees Fahrenheit, well below the temperature of a coal furnace and only slightly hotter than a kitchen oven. If anything unusual occurs, the control rods immediately drop, shutting off the nuclear reaction. You can't have a "runaway reactor," nor can a reactor explode like a nuclear bomb. A commercial reactor is to a bomb what Vaseline is to napalm. Although both are made from petroleum jelly, only one of them has potentially explosive material.
Once the reactor has shut down, there remains "decay heat" from traces of other radioactive isotopes. This can take more than a week to cool down, and the rods must be continually bathed in cooling waters to keep them from overheating.
On all Generation II reactors—the ones currently in operation—the cooling water is circulated by electric pumps. The new Generation III reactors such as the AP1000 have a simplified "passive" cooling system where the water circulates by natural convection with no pumping required.
If the pumps are knocked out in a Generation II reactor—as they were at Fukushima Daiichi by the tsunami—the water in the cooling system can overheat and evaporate. The resulting steam increases internal pressure that must be vented. There was a small release of radioactive steam at Three Mile Island in 1979, and there have also been a few releases at Fukushima Daiichi. These produce radiation at about the level of one dental X-ray in the immediate vicinity and quickly dissipate.
If the coolant continues to evaporate, the water level can fall below the level of the fuel rods, exposing them. This will cause a meltdown, meaning the fuel rods melt to the bottom of the steel pressure vessel.
Early speculation was that in a case like this the fuel might continue melting right through the steel and perhaps even through the concrete containment structure—the so-called China syndrome, where the fuel would melt all the way to China. But Three Mile Island proved this doesn't happen. The melted fuel rods simply aren't hot enough to melt steel or concrete.
The decay heat must still be absorbed, however, and as a last-ditch effort the emergency core cooling system can be activated to flood the entire containment structure with water. This will do considerable damage to the reactor but will prevent any further steam releases. The Japanese have now reportedly done this using seawater in at least two of the troubled reactors. These reactors will never be restarted.
None of this amounts to "another Chernobyl." The Chernobyl reactor had two crucial design flaws. First, it used graphite (carbon) instead of water to "moderate" the neutrons, which makes possible the nuclear reaction. The graphite caught fire in April 1986 and burned for four days. Water does not catch fire.
Second, Chernobyl had no containment structure. When the graphite caught fire, it spouted a plume of radioactive smoke that spread across the globe. A containment structure would have both smothered the fire and contained the radioactivity.
If a meltdown does occur in Japan, it will be a disaster for the Tokyo Electric Power Company but not for the general public. Whatever steam releases occur will have a negligible impact. Researchers have spent 30 years trying to find health effects from the steam releases at Three Mile Island and have come up with nothing. With all the death, devastation and disease now threatening tens of thousands in Japan, it is trivializing and almost obscene to spend so much time worrying about damage to a nuclear reactor.
What the Japanese earthquake has proved is that even the oldest containment structures can withstand the impact of one of the largest earthquakes in recorded history. The problem has been with the electrical pumps required to operate the cooling system. It would be tragic if the result of the Japanese accident were to prevent development of Generation III reactors, which eliminate this design flaw. ***
Mr. Tucker is author of "Terrestrial Energy: How Nuclear Power Will Lead the Green Revolution and End America's Energy Odyssey" (Bartleby Press, 2010).
****However, I (tim, not the author) believe that this is unfortunately an inevitable result.
Even while thousands of people are reported dead or missing, whole neighborhoods lie in ruins, and gas and oil fires rage out of control, press coverage of the Japanese earthquake has quickly settled on the troubles at two nuclear reactors as the center of the catastrophe.
Rep. Ed Markey (D., Mass.), a longtime opponent of nuclear power, has warned of "another Chernobyl" and predicted "the same thing could happen here." In response, he has called for an immediate suspension of licensing procedures for the Westinghouse AP1000, a "Generation III" reactor that has been laboring through design review at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for seven years.
Before we respond with such panic, though, it would be useful to review exactly what is happening in Japan and what we have to fear from it.
The core of a nuclear reactor operates at about 550 degrees Fahrenheit, well below the temperature of a coal furnace and only slightly hotter than a kitchen oven. If anything unusual occurs, the control rods immediately drop, shutting off the nuclear reaction. You can't have a "runaway reactor," nor can a reactor explode like a nuclear bomb. A commercial reactor is to a bomb what Vaseline is to napalm. Although both are made from petroleum jelly, only one of them has potentially explosive material.
Once the reactor has shut down, there remains "decay heat" from traces of other radioactive isotopes. This can take more than a week to cool down, and the rods must be continually bathed in cooling waters to keep them from overheating.
On all Generation II reactors—the ones currently in operation—the cooling water is circulated by electric pumps. The new Generation III reactors such as the AP1000 have a simplified "passive" cooling system where the water circulates by natural convection with no pumping required.
If the pumps are knocked out in a Generation II reactor—as they were at Fukushima Daiichi by the tsunami—the water in the cooling system can overheat and evaporate. The resulting steam increases internal pressure that must be vented. There was a small release of radioactive steam at Three Mile Island in 1979, and there have also been a few releases at Fukushima Daiichi. These produce radiation at about the level of one dental X-ray in the immediate vicinity and quickly dissipate.
If the coolant continues to evaporate, the water level can fall below the level of the fuel rods, exposing them. This will cause a meltdown, meaning the fuel rods melt to the bottom of the steel pressure vessel.
Early speculation was that in a case like this the fuel might continue melting right through the steel and perhaps even through the concrete containment structure—the so-called China syndrome, where the fuel would melt all the way to China. But Three Mile Island proved this doesn't happen. The melted fuel rods simply aren't hot enough to melt steel or concrete.
The decay heat must still be absorbed, however, and as a last-ditch effort the emergency core cooling system can be activated to flood the entire containment structure with water. This will do considerable damage to the reactor but will prevent any further steam releases. The Japanese have now reportedly done this using seawater in at least two of the troubled reactors. These reactors will never be restarted.
None of this amounts to "another Chernobyl." The Chernobyl reactor had two crucial design flaws. First, it used graphite (carbon) instead of water to "moderate" the neutrons, which makes possible the nuclear reaction. The graphite caught fire in April 1986 and burned for four days. Water does not catch fire.
Second, Chernobyl had no containment structure. When the graphite caught fire, it spouted a plume of radioactive smoke that spread across the globe. A containment structure would have both smothered the fire and contained the radioactivity.
If a meltdown does occur in Japan, it will be a disaster for the Tokyo Electric Power Company but not for the general public. Whatever steam releases occur will have a negligible impact. Researchers have spent 30 years trying to find health effects from the steam releases at Three Mile Island and have come up with nothing. With all the death, devastation and disease now threatening tens of thousands in Japan, it is trivializing and almost obscene to spend so much time worrying about damage to a nuclear reactor.
What the Japanese earthquake has proved is that even the oldest containment structures can withstand the impact of one of the largest earthquakes in recorded history. The problem has been with the electrical pumps required to operate the cooling system. It would be tragic if the result of the Japanese accident were to prevent development of Generation III reactors, which eliminate this design flaw. ***
Mr. Tucker is author of "Terrestrial Energy: How Nuclear Power Will Lead the Green Revolution and End America's Energy Odyssey" (Bartleby Press, 2010).
****However, I (tim, not the author) believe that this is unfortunately an inevitable result.
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Rohn Jambo
Footballguy
OOOOOMMMMMMMGGGGGGG!!!!!Six steps to a full meltdown:
1. Core uncovery. Even when the controlled rods are fully inserted to slow down the nuclear reaction, if the coolant pump is not working, the fuel rods will heat up and vaporize the water in the reactor. It will take about an hour for the fuel rods to become exposed.
2. Pre-damage heat up. As more water around the fuel rods boils off, the heat up of the fuel rods will accelerate to between 0.3 K and 1 K per seconds.
3. Fuel ballooning and bursting. When temperature reaches 1100 K, the zircaloy cladding of the fuel rods may balloon and burst. The cladding ballooning may restrict the flow of coolant.
4. Rapid oxidation. At approximately 1500 K, rapid oxidation or rusting of the zirealoy cladding by the steam will start. In this process, hydrogen is produced and a large amount of heat is released.
5. Debris bed formation. At approximately 1700 K, molten materials from the melting control rods will flow to and solidify in the space between the lower parts of the fuel rods where it's cooler. Above 1700 K, core temperature may escalate quickly to 2150 K due to increased oxidation rate. When the oxidized cladding breaks, the molten zircaloy will also freeze and collect in the lower region of the core.
6. Corium Relocation to the lower plenum. If there is a pool of water at the bottom of the reactor vessel, molten fuel rods released to the water will generate large amounts of steam. If molten fuel rods breaks up rapidly in the water then overpressure and a steam explosion is possible. Any unoxidized zirconium in the molten material may also be oxidized by steam and produce hydrogen. Nuclear chain reaction also may be a concern if the control materials are left behind in the core and the melted fuel rods break up in unborated water.
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David Dodds
Administrator
I don't know if you are mocking me or agreeing, but thanks for the checklist. So from this list do you credit the hydrogen explosions to step 4?
shader
Footballguy
I think this is a serious issue for anyone within 10-20 miles of the reactor, and possibly even more than that.
I don't see it as having any issue for the US at all.
The one thing I don't understand is this:
They keep talking about the "containment" that this reactor has.
Well that's all well and good, but hasn't there been explosions at two plants? How do they know that the containment wall is still secure?
There is, in my opinion, a high possibility of a decent-sized dead zone in the areas surrounding the plants.
Poor Japan. What a horrible tragedy.
I don't see it as having any issue for the US at all.
The one thing I don't understand is this:
They keep talking about the "containment" that this reactor has.
Well that's all well and good, but hasn't there been explosions at two plants? How do they know that the containment wall is still secure?
There is, in my opinion, a high possibility of a decent-sized dead zone in the areas surrounding the plants.
Poor Japan. What a horrible tragedy.
mr. furley
Footballguy
what a gift-giving thread full of awesome that was'guderian said:
Jobber
Footballguy
mr. furley
Footballguy
i'm not going to affix a 
or anything but it doesn't exactly calm my nerves when the military and government are saying "nothing to see here"
not saying zomgCHUDalert but also let's not rush to jerk each other off because the Japanese military said everything was ok.
ican't believe people have forgotten the GW Bush quote, about 20 minutes before the levees broke in N.O. "everything is fine.. pop a lawn chair open, drop a line in the water, drink a cold Pabst and catch you some gator! YEEE! HAW! :snort: :sniff: "
or anything but it doesn't exactly calm my nerves when the military and government are saying "nothing to see here"not saying zomgCHUDalert but also let's not rush to jerk each other off because the Japanese military said everything was ok.
ican't believe people have forgotten the GW Bush quote, about 20 minutes before the levees broke in N.O. "everything is fine.. pop a lawn chair open, drop a line in the water, drink a cold Pabst and catch you some gator! YEEE! HAW! :snort: :sniff: "
timschochet
Footballguy
Unfortunately it will very likely result in a morotarium here on new nuclear energy, as many people are predicting. It is an irrational, emotional response; but when have we reacted otherwise?
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
No one knows yet how much this will have an effect on the US, and the world. This is still being played out. As to your question of if containment is secure, if it wasn’t we’d know the second it wasn’t. Radiation levels would rise exponentially. And there won’t be a “dead zone” to the surrounding areas as long as the containment vessel holds. The amount of radiation being released currently is very minor compared to the reactor vessel leaking and exposing the rods to the environment and deadly radiation. As for it being a horrible tragedy. It is, but don’t think it is just Japan who suffers. We are not out of the woods yet. We all hope that those plant operators get the necessary fuel, personnel and equipment to execute a plan to alleviate the pressure in the vessel and stop the venting of hazardous steam. God help them.
wazoo11
Footballguy
I'd rather not listen to this guy.
David Dodds
Administrator
How about Bloomberg for a source, will that work?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-14/fuel-rods-at-nuclear-plant-may-have-melted-edano-says-correct-.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-14/fuel-rods-at-nuclear-plant-may-have-melted-edano-says-correct-.html
timschochet
Footballguy
Why not? Which part of his argument do you dispute?
timschochet
Footballguy
I don't think it's politically motivated. I think it's emotionally motivated, a fear of things we don't understand and which could conceivably harm us. I blame no one for feeling this; I feel it myself. But we can take these fears and channel them into decisions for the future based on reason and science, or we can take these fears and make decisions for the future based on panic and emotion. The choice will be ours, and I have a bad feeling it won't be the right one.
joffer
Footballguy
i think he meant Ed Markey
David Dodds
Administrator
Tim, Do you think dumping sea water to cool the reactors was part of the operation manual? I ask, because they have now done this procedure on three different reactors. When countries are doing stuff by the seat of their pants, I think we all have to be a little concerned, don't we? For people saying there is nothing to see here, when do you think the people within miles of these reactors are going to be allowed back to their homes? Do you envision any area off limits?
timschochet
Footballguy
It looks like you're searching for reasonable sources that will agree with your premises, which is something I do a lot and then kick myself about later. Earlier in the thread I pasted a Greenpeace article. I did so not because I agreed with it, but because I was hoping to read some rebuttals to its apocalyptic tone. Instead, the answer I received was basically, "Who can trust Greenpeace; they're partisan." This morning I posted a Wall Street Journal Op-Ed piece which was far more optimistic than the Greenpeace article, and again I didn't post it because it represented my own conclusions (I'm simply not smart enough about these issues to form any conclusion of my own) but because I wanted to see if there were any flaws with it (obviously I'm hopeful they're isn't, but hope is not equal to knowing). So far the only response I got was someone writing "I'd rather not listen to this guy" which is the same response as before.
How are we ever going to resolve anything if we refuse to read anyone who disagrees with us, and go about looking for people who agree with us? This way of thinking is very frustrating to me. It seems like the most important thing for most people is to be right. If it means getting closer to the truth, I would much rather be wrong most of the time (I seem to succeed at this.)
FavreCo
Footballguy
They had no choice on the seawater cooling option. There simply was no other alternative after the 8.9+/tsunami. These aren't morons running them. Pretty sure there are a few genius level nuclear physicists hanging around Japan.
timschochet
Footballguy
As to your first question, I have absolutely no idea. Of course we should be concerned. But not panicked. I would never say there is nothing to see here. I can't answer the rest of your questions. I hope the Wall Street Journal article I posted is correct. I would have no way of knowing if it is. But I do know this: knee-jerk reactions are almost never good. Let's get all the facts that we can and then reach some reasonable conclusions. Deciding to stop all proposed new nuclear power plants because of this event is not, IMO, a reasonable reaction to have at this point. Assuming that the governments of Japan and/or the United States is lying to the public about these matters is not, IMO, a reasonable reaction to have at this point.
jamny
Footballguy
I thought someone posted a link that stated that the seawater option was a known plan and in a manual. Not something they just came up with.
David Dodds
Administrator
You believe an op-ed piece by someone profiting from a book on nuclear power's virtues? For what's it worth I agree with most everyone that this is contained to Japan only. I do think we are seeing meltdowns though. How much will leak is the billion dollar question. The fact that our military detected radiation 60 miles away is concerning. Hopefully very little radiation will be leaked going forward. But the government has decided to completely destroy three reactors so something serious is definitely happening. In the weeks ahead I fully expect a perimeter to be drawn around these plants and this area will likely not be inhabited for possibly a decade. Personally I don't think the time to have debates about nuclear power are right now. Let's see how this concludes and get a full report of what went wrong. Those issues (and are they correctable) need to be balanced with the safer designs of the new plants. As for putting things on hold in the Nuclear industry for a little bit, I think that's prudent. Just like I don't think it would have been wise to immediately drill in the Gulf without knowing all the things that went wrong there.
