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wiscstlatlmia

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Seems like the reviews have been mixed on Pierce so far. This positive blurb came out yesterday :(TheHuddle) Baltimore Ravens OC Cam Cameron hinted that rookie RB Bernard Pierce might be best suited for full-time duty if Ray Rice was unavailable for any reason.Analysis: The Ravens traded up seven spots in the third round to select Pierce, who rushed for 27 touchdowns as a junior last year at Temple. "The one thing is you can see why we drafted him," Cameron said. "I can't wait until the pads come on. I think that becomes the true test for any young player, but he is physical, smart and fast... One thing that is obvious is that he is a good football player." Pierce is competing with Anthony Allen and Damien Berry for the No. 2 slot.

I really am not totally sold either way on Pierce yet. I only saw limited footage of him and I don't know what to really think of his game yet. He played at Temple so the competition makes it tough to tell how he will translate. But the way I'm thinking about it right now:-Ravens used a mid 3rd round pick on him, which means they put somewhat of an investment in him. -He was an impressive college runner and has the size to carry the load.-Pierce really has no competition as the handcuff to a stud, in a run heavy offense.as long as he doesn't totally crap the beds in training camp, I think he is instantly a solid handcuff. If Rice does go down, Flacco is not the type to be throwing 30 times a game, Pierce will get a significant amount of touches from the start. The offense is built mainly around the deep ball and ray rice, they can't completely go away from it if Rice goes down, Its a solid situation for anyone to be in regardless of who they aretime will tell on how Pierce's career goes, but I would say the situation itself was worthy of me moving him up.

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Hey guys, welp, after a long offseason and A LOT of mock drafts(dynasty and redraft), I think I have a pretty good handle on where most players stand. Obviously a lot of puff pieces and bologna coming out in the media right now, but definitely some valuable information mixed in.

anywho, here are the rankings(which can also be found in the first post).

Quarterback 7/4/12:

http://fantasy-footballu.com/quarterbackfsd/

Running Back 7/4/12:

http://fantasy-footballu.com/running-backs/

Wide Receiver 7/4/12:

http://fantasy-footballu.com/wide-receiver/

Tight End 7/4/12:

http://fantasy-footballu.com/tight-end/

Most notable movers on the lists:

*note*just because they move up and down does not necessarily mean I have an significant reasoning or information for the change(although sometimes it does). It may just simply mean I feel I had ranked them to low previously

QB:

Josh Freeman(up)

Ryan Fitzpatrick(up)

Matt Cassel (up)

RB:

Felix Jones (up)

Donald Brown (up)

James Starks (up)

Roy Helu (up)

Rashard Mendenhall (up)

Ronnie Hillman (up)

Michael Bush (down)

Peyton Hillis (down)

Willis Mcgahee (up)

Lagarrette Blount (up)

Bernard Pierce (up)

Taiwan Jones (down)

WR:

Brandon Marshall (up)

Kenny Britt (down)

Demaryius Thomas (up)

Vincent Jackson (up)

Torrey Smith (up)

Robert Meachem (up)

Eric Decker (up)

Alshon Jeffery (up)

Mike Williams Tampa Bay (up)

Santana Moss (up)

Titus Young (up)

Juron Criner (up)

Brian Quick (up)

Chad Ochocino (up)

Arrelious Benn (down)

Nate Burleson(up)

Mario Manningham (down)

Chaz Schilens (up)

BJ Cunningham (down)

TE:

Greg Olsen (up)

Jacob Tamme (up)

Jordan Cameron (up)

Scott Chandler (up)

Robert Housler (up)

Michael Egnew (down)

Kellen Winslow(down)

Julius Thomas(down)

Joel Dressen (down)

just another note,I reallly suggest checking out the blog

we started posting highlight videos last week and already have over 50 of them! we will be adding more just about daily in the future, so if you enjoy watching highlight tapes, we will keep you entertained. As you see here http://fantasy-footballu.com/blog-referencearchive/ we have a blog reference that keeps each highlight organized so its simple to find who your looking for! Just an easier way to find video on guys. (a lot of youtubing hours logged so you guys dont have to LOL)

Once again, feedback is welcome :thumbup:

I appreciate your rankings. I don't always comment but I do always check them out when you update. It is nice to compare to my own. Pretty much have no disagreements with your UP and Down list although I wonder about B. Pierce since I had heard he was having trouble learning the offense and was looking like a permanent situational backup.
:thumbup: Thanks for checking them out man!

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I just have a wierd feeling the defenses are going to start to catch up with the offense this year, just a strange, gut feeling lol.

Without major, hell even minor, changes to the rules that swing things back in favor of defenses, I really really don't see this happening. You'll continue to see defenses adjust and adapt, but not really catch up.
That sounds right, but I am having a hard time allowing myself to believe that the whole league is going to be throwing over 4000 yards. I guess its more wishful thinking than an actual possibility.

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Nice work. Some thoughts:

- In terms of overall career value, I'm taking Luck over Brady and Brees. Obviously those guys are a safer bet for 2-3 more years of elite production, but I'd rather gamble on getting Luck's whole career. If he ends up being almost as good as those guys, he has way more value from this point forward because he's a decade younger.

- I'd put Doug Martin a lot higher. I'm sure I'm in the minority here, but his combination of youth and versatility makes him a top 10 back for me. I wouldn't trade him for McFadden, Charles, or Mathews if someone offered any of them straight up. Others that I'd move up in your rankings: Mendenhall, Turbin, Dwyer, Pierce, James. Mendenhall will bounce back and emerge as a starter somewhere. Dwyer could be a big surprise this year in his absence. I think Turbin, Pierce, and James have interesting long term potential despite spotty short term prospects.

- Not really feeling the B Lloyd love. IMO he is one of the most overrated players in FF, and not close to the 21st overall dynasty receiver. Old with only one good season in his career. I don't understand the hype. I'd much, much rather have a guy like Torrey Smith or Antonio Brown. For me, Baldwin/Cobb/Wright >> Garcon/DHB/Meachem. In particular, I really don't like Meachem, as his whole career people have been waiting for a breakout that's never going to come. I think Baldwin and Wright are two of the best WRs to target right now, as they both have the potential to be perrenial 1000+ threats without the gaudy price tag. I would bump Jenkins, Randle, and Rice on the basis of potential. I would also put TJ Graham somewhere on the list. I'd probably rank him alongside some of those 9th tier guys, personally.

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It looks like you're missing a few players that came onto the FF radar in the past couple months, like Josh Gordon, Rod Streater, and LaVon Brazill.

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Nice work. Some thoughts:- In terms of overall career value, I'm taking Luck over Brady and Brees. Obviously those guys are a safer bet for 2-3 more years of elite production, but I'd rather gamble on getting Luck's whole career. If he ends up being almost as good as those guys, he has way more value from this point forward because he's a decade younger. - I'd put Doug Martin a lot higher. I'm sure I'm in the minority here, but his combination of youth and versatility makes him a top 10 back for me. I wouldn't trade him for McFadden, Charles, or Mathews if someone offered any of them straight up. Others that I'd move up in your rankings: Mendenhall, Turbin, Dwyer, Pierce, James. Mendenhall will bounce back and emerge as a starter somewhere. Dwyer could be a big surprise this year in his absence. I think Turbin, Pierce, and James have interesting long term potential despite spotty short term prospects. - Not really feeling the B Lloyd love. IMO he is one of the most overrated players in FF, and not close to the 21st overall dynasty receiver. Old with only one good season in his career. I don't understand the hype. I'd much, much rather have a guy like Torrey Smith or Antonio Brown. For me, Baldwin/Cobb/Wright >> Garcon/DHB/Meachem. In particular, I really don't like Meachem, as his whole career people have been waiting for a breakout that's never going to come. I think Baldwin and Wright are two of the best WRs to target right now, as they both have the potential to be perrenial 1000+ threats without the gaudy price tag. I would bump Jenkins, Randle, and Rice on the basis of potential. I would also put TJ Graham somewhere on the list. I'd probably rank him alongside some of those 9th tier guys, personally.

I think the divide in our thinking is that were basing things on slightly different strategies.I would agree that Luck has the better future and will be around ten years after Brees and Brady retire, but, I think the next two years have more value than the next 8 after them. So much changes in 3 years, which makes me hesitant to like projecting out that far a lot depends on your team, this year Luck is nothing more than a QB2, a QB2 with potential low end QB1 numbers, but if your competing for a championship, You go with Brady by a long shot. Luck is a good guy to bring up though because he could close the gap by next year, if he does then I lose out bad. I'm not as high on Martin as most are, I like the situation he has in Tampa and I think he can be successful there, but I need to see him play more than preseason games to say hes a top 10 RB. I think hes a good player, but only the elite guys(Peterson, Richardson, Spiller) get bumps that high before they prove anything. Again, your buying before the potentially blows up, which is the right way to play it , and could and probably will work out for you in the long run, I would take proven production over him for the time being though.I've just seen to many of those middle first early second RBs(Moreno,Best, Ingram, Williams,Wells) bomb out lately to have me feel comfortable paying a top 10 price for Martin. If they do not perform and show major flashes, they take a severe value hit . Totally understand the Lloyd thing and I'm admittedly biased towards him. I think he can put up top 10 numbers with Brady for the next two years and that again, is where we have a difference in strategy. Now, If I'm rebuilding I take Torrey Smith or Antonio Brown for Lloyd in a second. If I'm competing this year I want the higher ceiling guy. Cobb has shown flashes and I think he will find a nice place in the Packers offense, I think they have less fantasy football related plans for him though, at least for now with Jennings Nelson and Finley taking up a majority of the targets. When I watch Wright, I always feel like I have to be missing something, I dont understand why hes he was a first round pick, I just dont see him as a WR1 in the NFL. I do like Baldwin but I have to see some considerable improvement from him this year to move him up to the higher 30s. Definitely has the potential, I want to see regular season flashes first though

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It looks like you're missing a few players that came onto the FF radar in the past couple months, like Josh Gordon, Rod Streater, and LaVon Brazill.

They are not available on the ranking website I use Gordon goes in at WR48Streater goes in at WR45Brazill goes in at WR65

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Totally understand the Lloyd thing and I'm admittedly biased towards him. I think he can put up top 10 numbers with Brady for the next two years and that again, is where we have a difference in strategy. Now, If I'm rebuilding I take Torrey Smith or Antonio Brown for Lloyd in a second. If I'm competing this year I want the higher ceiling guy.

FWIW, I think Brown and Smith are both likely to outscore him this season, let alone in the future. As for the other stuff, I don't agree with the whole 2-3 year window thing, but that's your call.In terms of overall dynasty value for the duration of their careers, I think Luck is well ahead of Brady and Brees. There is a risk that he never becomes that caliber of player, but there is also a far greater payoff if he does. Because 15 years of greatness is worth a lot more than 3-4 years of greatness.

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Totally understand the Lloyd thing and I'm admittedly biased towards him. I think he can put up top 10 numbers with Brady for the next two years and that again, is where we have a difference in strategy. Now, If I'm rebuilding I take Torrey Smith or Antonio Brown for Lloyd in a second. If I'm competing this year I want the higher ceiling guy.

FWIW, I think Brown and Smith are both likely to outscore him this season, let alone in the future. As for the other stuff, I don't agree with the whole 2-3 year window thing, but that's your call.In terms of overall dynasty value for the duration of their careers, I think Luck is well ahead of Brady and Brees. There is a risk that he never becomes that caliber of player, but there is also a far greater payoff if he does. Because 15 years of greatness is worth a lot more than 3-4 years of greatness.
Obviously 15 is better than 3 or 4, but you don't value this year any more than year 15? So many things happen in such a short amount of time with injuries, preseason, regular season, contract negotiations... its just hard to look even 5 years down the road with that much confidence, at least for me.

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Totally understand the Lloyd thing and I'm admittedly biased towards him. I think he can put up top 10 numbers with Brady for the next two years and that again, is where we have a difference in strategy. Now, If I'm rebuilding I take Torrey Smith or Antonio Brown for Lloyd in a second. If I'm competing this year I want the higher ceiling guy.

FWIW, I think Brown and Smith are both likely to outscore him this season, let alone in the future. As for the other stuff, I don't agree with the whole 2-3 year window thing, but that's your call.In terms of overall dynasty value for the duration of their careers, I think Luck is well ahead of Brady and Brees. There is a risk that he never becomes that caliber of player, but there is also a far greater payoff if he does. Because 15 years of greatness is worth a lot more than 3-4 years of greatness.
Obviously 15 is better than 3 or 4, but you don't value this year any more than year 15? So many things happen in such a short amount of time with injuries, preseason, regular season, contract negotiations... its just hard to look even 5 years down the road with that much confidence, at least for me.
This year vs year 15 is a poor argument when you ignore 2-14. Clearly this year is worth more than 15 years from now, but is the next 3-4 years worth more than what you get out of Luck in the next 15? That's a much better question to ask and frankly, is dependent on the state of your dynasty team. If I didn't feel my team was championship-ready this year, that means I probably won't be next year as well, and if I had Brady or Brees, I'd trade them for Luck (I'd try to get more, but I'd honestly value Luck more). With that in mind, I'd see a strong case for all 3 being in the same tier.

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Totally understand the Lloyd thing and I'm admittedly biased towards him. I think he can put up top 10 numbers with Brady for the next two years and that again, is where we have a difference in strategy. Now, If I'm rebuilding I take Torrey Smith or Antonio Brown for Lloyd in a second. If I'm competing this year I want the higher ceiling guy.

FWIW, I think Brown and Smith are both likely to outscore him this season, let alone in the future. As for the other stuff, I don't agree with the whole 2-3 year window thing, but that's your call.In terms of overall dynasty value for the duration of their careers, I think Luck is well ahead of Brady and Brees. There is a risk that he never becomes that caliber of player, but there is also a far greater payoff if he does. Because 15 years of greatness is worth a lot more than 3-4 years of greatness.
Obviously 15 is better than 3 or 4, but you don't value this year any more than year 15? So many things happen in such a short amount of time with injuries, preseason, regular season, contract negotiations... its just hard to look even 5 years down the road with that much confidence, at least for me.
This year vs year 15 is a poor argument when you ignore 2-14. Clearly this year is worth more than 15 years from now, but is the next 3-4 years worth more than what you get out of Luck in the next 15? That's a much better question to ask and frankly, is dependent on the state of your dynasty team. If I didn't feel my team was championship-ready this year, that means I probably won't be next year as well, and if I had Brady or Brees, I'd trade them for Luck (I'd try to get more, but I'd honestly value Luck more). With that in mind, I'd see a strong case for all 3 being in the same tier.
Right, a lot of variables involved when talking about value of a specific dynasty player. It seems only the top, young to middle aged players ( Foster, McCoy, Rice, Calvin, Fitz, Graham, Gronk) have the same value no matter which team they are on.A really important aspect of value is team specific and I suppose that's why there is so much debate in dynasty. It seems that a lot of value is missed out on because people are giving up on guys to early in there careers, because they are thinking 8 years down the road.

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Luck could become a Troy Aikman type, good NFL QB, relatively meh FFL QB, althought the NFL is different now from a passing perspective.

give me Brees/Brady over the kid unless Im rebuilding.

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- In terms of overall career value, I'm taking Luck over Brady and Brees. Obviously those guys are a safer bet for 2-3 more years of elite production, but I'd rather gamble on getting Luck's whole career. If he ends up being almost as good as those guys, he has way more value from this point forward because he's a decade younger.

The problem with this line of thinking is that you will still have a QB after Brady/Brees are done. It's not like there is a void that cannot be filled. You will still have a back-up, if done smartly it's a promising rookie in an upcoming draft.It's not Luck's 10 years vs Brees/Brady's 3. It's Luck's 10 years vs Brady/Brees 3 years + future rookie hopeful's 7 years.Maybe Luck is worth that, maybe he's not.

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Luck could become a Troy Aikman type, good NFL QB, relatively meh FFL QB, althought the NFL is different now from a passing perspective.

No, this is a really poor comparison ignoring both his situation and Aikman's situation. Colts drafted Luck to be the successor to Peyton and the NFL is changing into a pass-first league (which you acknowledge but don't seem to adequately take into account for). The only successful teams that aren't pass-first are those with elite defenses that lack top-talent QBs. The Colts don't have an elite defense and Luck will be a better QB than the teams with top defenses, and they lack a good running game so pass attempts should be really high as it will be their best chance to win. The Colts have shown their blueprint of what they do with a QB talent like Luck and that's to give him as many weapons as possible so expect his weapons to improve in upcoming years. Simply put, NFL teams build around their strengths, and the Colts will build their team around Luck.Aikman was a great QB on a team that didn't need him to throw more than 400 times a year because of a great defense and an even better running game. That's the main reason he was fantasy meh.

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- In terms of overall career value, I'm taking Luck over Brady and Brees. Obviously those guys are a safer bet for 2-3 more years of elite production, but I'd rather gamble on getting Luck's whole career. If he ends up being almost as good as those guys, he has way more value from this point forward because he's a decade younger.

The problem with this line of thinking is that you will still have a QB after Brady/Brees are done. It's not like there is a void that cannot be filled. You will still have a back-up, if done smartly it's a promising rookie in an upcoming draft.It's not Luck's 10 years vs Brees/Brady's 3. It's Luck's 10 years vs Brady/Brees 3 years + future rookie hopeful's 7 years.Maybe Luck is worth that, maybe he's not.
The way that you wrote that, it sounds like you're assuming that future-hopeful magically appears on your roster after Brees/Brady retires. Your post ignores the fact that it's going to cost a high draft pick (or trade) that would otherwise be another position of need. And then you're hoping that during the time you can pay that price, that replacement has near as much promise as Luck.

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Luck could become a Troy Aikman type, good NFL QB, relatively meh FFL QB, althought the NFL is different now from a passing perspective.

No, this is a really poor comparison ignoring both his situation and Aikman's situation. Colts drafted Luck to be the successor to Peyton and the NFL is changing into a pass-first league. The only successful teams that aren't pass-first are those with elite defenses (which ironically, is a much better Aikman comparison). The Colts don't have an elite defense and Luck will be a better QB than the teams with top defenses, and they lack a good running game so pass attempts should be really high as it will be their best chance to win. The Colts have shown their blueprint of what they do with a QB talent like Luck and that's to give him as many weapons as possible so expect his weapons to improve in upcoming years. Aikman was a great QB on a team that didn't need him to throw more than 400 times a year because of a great defense and an even better running game. That's the main reason he was fantasy meh.
How do you know the Colts D won be good or even elite in his career?So many factors come into play. Everyone is acting like Luck is a FF slam dunk at QB. Maybe his fantasy relavance is like Matt Ryans (save this awesome offseason) or Joe Flacco's

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- In terms of overall career value, I'm taking Luck over Brady and Brees. Obviously those guys are a safer bet for 2-3 more years of elite production, but I'd rather gamble on getting Luck's whole career. If he ends up being almost as good as those guys, he has way more value from this point forward because he's a decade younger.

The problem with this line of thinking is that you will still have a QB after Brady/Brees are done. It's not like there is a void that cannot be filled. You will still have a back-up, if done smartly it's a promising rookie in an upcoming draft.It's not Luck's 10 years vs Brees/Brady's 3. It's Luck's 10 years vs Brady/Brees 3 years + future rookie hopeful's 7 years.Maybe Luck is worth that, maybe he's not.
The way that you wrote that, it sounds like you're assuming that future-hopeful magically appears on your roster after Brees/Brady retires. Your post ignores the fact that it's going to cost a high draft pick (or trade) that would otherwise be another position of need. And then you're hoping that during the time you can pay that price, that replacement has near as much promise as Luck.
Or in the case of Brady: Mallett wouldn't cost a 1st round pick. You can usually get him for another random hopeful.NE is keeping crucial pieces in place. Could be a good long term buy.

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Everyone is acting like Luck is a FF slam dunk at QB. Maybe his fantasy relavance is like Matt Ryans (save this awesome offseason) or Joe Flacco's

If the scouting reports are to believed, he's vastly superior to either of those quarterbacks. I tend to believe that good NFL QBs eventually become good FF QBs. I can't think of any that haven't in the past decade. People will throw out Aikman, but Aikman was not an elite passer and the stats reflect that. He threw too many INTs and averaged significantly less yards per attempt than the best passers in the league. He was actually quite average. If Luck lives up to his billing, he will have an immensely valuable career. With a guy like Brees or Brady, you are paying a premium for seasons you'll never get to use. I don't care what happened between 2003-2011. All that matters is the remaining value, and I'm confident that 10-15 years of Luck is worth more than 3-4 years of Brees/Brady. It's not really that close for me. The bust risk is offset by the much higher upside.

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I tend to believe that good NFL QBs eventually become good FF QBs. I can't think of any that haven't in the past decade. People will throw out Aikman, but Aikman was not an elite passer and the stats reflect that. He threw too many INTs and averaged significantly less yards per attempt than the best passers in the league. He was actually quite average.

I know how much you value YPA in figuring out what makes a good NFL QB (which I agree with, for the most part).

There are currently five NFL QBs in the top 10 all-time in career YPA. Four of those five are not top tier FF QBs.

Aaron Rodgers

Tony Romo

Ben Roethlisberger

Philip Rivers

Matt Schaub

All of Romo, Roethlisberger, Rivers, and Schaub have elite QB ratings and completion percentages to go with their all-time great YPAs, yet Rivers/Romo are merely in the QB6-QB10 range and Roethlisberger/Schaub are FF backups.

Assuming that 5000/40 hasn't become the new 4000/25, it takes more than just a good QB to put up the elite passing numbers that the big 5 had last year. They all had the dreamy combination of a great quarterback, good skill position players, a coach that was willing to abandon the run (and to run up the score), and of course an abyssmal defense. There may not be many good NFL QBs that don't become good FF QBs, but what good is a "good" FF QB any more? How convinced are we that Romo/Rivers/Roethlisberger/Schaub wouldn't be considered great if they were playing in New England, New Orleans, or Detroit last year?

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System and supporting cast definitely add some uncertainty to Luck's value. We don't know if he will chuck the ball 600+ times every year like Brees or chuck the ball 600+ times AND have a super elite WR to bail him out like Stafford.

Even with that being the case, I'm still taking the next great QB over the current great QBs who are on the backslope of their best years. As much as people overrate youth and potential in dynasty leagues, others also overrate past production and security.

I wouldn't trade Brees for a guy like Tannehill just because he's young, but in the rare case of a "once per decade" can't-miss talent like Luck, I'm trading the old version for the young version every time. A year or two from now, you will not be able to get Luck for Brees or Brady.

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Luck could become a Troy Aikman type, good NFL QB, relatively meh FFL QB, althought the NFL is different now from a passing perspective.

No, this is a really poor comparison ignoring both his situation and Aikman's situation. Colts drafted Luck to be the successor to Peyton and the NFL is changing into a pass-first league. The only successful teams that aren't pass-first are those with elite defenses (which ironically, is a much better Aikman comparison). The Colts don't have an elite defense and Luck will be a better QB than the teams with top defenses, and they lack a good running game so pass attempts should be really high as it will be their best chance to win. The Colts have shown their blueprint of what they do with a QB talent like Luck and that's to give him as many weapons as possible so expect his weapons to improve in upcoming years. Aikman was a great QB on a team that didn't need him to throw more than 400 times a year because of a great defense and an even better running game. That's the main reason he was fantasy meh.
How do you know the Colts D won be good or even elite in his career?
It's not just having a good defense that factors into it, Alex Smith and Joe Flacco are pedestrian QB talents. Put Aaron Rogers on the Ravens or 49ers and they'll pass more and become more fantasy relevant, though probably not quite as fantasy dominant as Rogers in his current situation since he doesn't need to be. Let me ask you this: Do you think the Colts will not make every effort to make sure Luck has the weapons he needs to be a significant passing threat during his career? Even if they get a good or great defense at some point, do you think Luck will no longer be the focal point of their offense? Yes a great defense could hamper Luck's passing attempts, but with the NFL focusing on passing more, his floor even with a great defense is very high.

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System and supporting cast definitely add some uncertainty to Luck's value. We don't know if he will chuck the ball 600+ times every year like Brees or chuck the ball 600+ times AND have a super elite WR to bail him out like Stafford. Even with that being the case, I'm still taking the next great QB over the current great QBs who are on the backslope of their best years. As much as people overrate youth and potential in dynasty leagues, others also overrate past production and security. I wouldn't trade Brees for a guy like Tannehill just because he's young, but in the rare case of a "once per decade" can't-miss talent like Luck, I'm trading the old version for the young version every time. A year or two from now, you will not be able to get Luck for Brees or Brady.

I think you are dismissing the "guarantee" of elite play for 3 years compared to nothing that is guaranteed, especially with injuries sapping careers that may never become anything. There is clear value in knowing what you get. I know injuries could happen to any of them, but that actually puts more value in the guy who is there right now. Also, many FF people think RG3 will be a better fantasy QB...I assume you are not one of them?

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I think you are dismissing the "guarantee" of elite play for 3 years compared to nothing that is guaranteed, especially with injuries sapping careers that may never become anything. There is clear value in knowing what you get. I know injuries could happen to any of them, but that actually puts more value in the guy who is there right now. Also, many FF people think RG3 will be a better fantasy QB...I assume you are not one of them?

There are no guarantees in FF. Look at Peyton last year. Any player can get injured. I'd argue that old guys with older bodies and more mileage are more likely to get hurt than youngsters. So that might actually be a point in Luck's favor. If Brees or Brady goes down with another serious injury, their trade value will absolutely plummet. If Luck goes down, he's young enough that he can bounce back and still be in his prime ala Matt Stafford. And Luck is about 6'4" 235. Bigger and stronger than Brady and Brees, for whatever that's worth.

I agree that there is clear value in knowing what you get. The problem is that you usually pay a premium for security because it is overvalued. Ironically, the more "proven" a player becomes, the more of his career you have already missed out on if you waited on the sidelines scared to pull the trigger.

Look at a guy like Ray Rice. When he was coming into the league, he would've cost you a middle round pick in a dynasty startup draft. Maybe a 6th-8th rounder. After his first season when he didn't get a ton of playing time, his cost would've been roughly the same. After his breakout year, his price would've jumped up into the late 1st-2nd round. And after logging two more elite seasons in 2010 and 2011, he has become widely regarded as one of the most untouchable assets in dynasty FF. The problem in all of this? The longer you wait for someone to "prove" his true value, the more you miss out on his actual career. Rice's prime is halfway over. If you waited for him to prove himself before you acquired him, you not only watched his price increase, but you also missed out on some of his best production.

So if you buy Rice now, you are paying a premium based on what he has already accomplished. Yes, he is a safer pick than someone like Trent Richardson, but he is essentially "missing" three seasons from his prime. On the flipside, if you can identify these guys early and get in on the ground floor, you can often get them below their actual value and you also get to enjoy their entire career, and not just a fraction of it. The risk here is that the player in question never takes the next step. There are lots of guys like Beanie Wells, Kevin Jones, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Braylon Edwards, Roy Williams, and Koren Robinson who never have the career that people expect.

That's why I think you have to be very careful in these situations and avoid paying top dollar for prospects until they've genuinely proven themselves unless they're truly special talents. Obviously making that distinction is easier said than done. There's no magical formula that determines who's legit and who isn't. It's a judgment call. Most of the time I would never recommend taking the "next big thing" over a current superstar, but...if you're absolutely certain about someone and you make the right call, you can reap a massive gain in value.

I think there are a couple guys in this class who qualify as special talents (Luck and Richardson) and I value them accordingly. I would also take a guy like Martin over more "proven" players because I think he offers more value at a lower cost. As for RGIII, I don't think he's as good as Luck and I think he's overvalued by a half notch right now.

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It looks like you're missing a few players that came onto the FF radar in the past couple months, like Josh Gordon, Rod Streater, and LaVon Brazill.

They are not available on the ranking website I use Gordon goes in at WR48Streater goes in at WR45Brazill goes in at WR65
Ok I updated the changed with the new imported guys.Upon further review I decided it was ridiculous of me to put Streater above both Quick and Wright... I put him at 48, Put Gordon at 49 and Brazill at 65

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I think you are dismissing the "guarantee" of elite play for 3 years compared to nothing that is guaranteed, especially with injuries sapping careers that may never become anything. There is clear value in knowing what you get. I know injuries could happen to any of them, but that actually puts more value in the guy who is there right now. Also, many FF people think RG3 will be a better fantasy QB...I assume you are not one of them?

There are no guarantees in FF. Look at Peyton last year. Any player can get injured. I'd argue that old guys with older bodies and more mileage are more likely to get hurt than youngsters. So that might actually be a point in Luck's favor. If Brees or Brady goes down with another serious injury, their trade value will absolutely plummet. If Luck goes down, he's young enough that he can bounce back and still be in his prime ala Matt Stafford. And Luck is about 6'4" 235. Bigger and stronger than Brady and Brees, for whatever that's worth.

I agree that there is clear value in knowing what you get. The problem is that you usually pay a premium for security because it is overvalued. Ironically, the more "proven" a player becomes, the more of his career you have already missed out on if you waited on the sidelines scared to pull the trigger.

Look at a guy like Ray Rice. When he was coming into the league, he would've cost you a middle round pick in a dynasty startup draft. Maybe a 6th-8th rounder. After his first season when he didn't get a ton of playing time, his cost would've been roughly the same. After his breakout year, his price would've jumped up into the late 1st-2nd round. And after logging two more elite seasons in 2010 and 2011, he has become widely regarded as one of the most untouchable assets in dynasty FF. The problem in all of this? The longer you wait for someone to "prove" his true value, the more you miss out on his actual career. Rice's prime is halfway over. If you waited for him to prove himself before you acquired him, you not only watched his price increase, but you also missed out on some of his best production.

So if you buy Rice now, you are paying a premium based on what he has already accomplished. Yes, he is a safer pick than someone like Trent Richardson, but he is essentially "missing" three seasons from his prime. On the flipside, if you can identify these guys early and get in on the ground floor, you can often get them below their actual value and you also get to enjoy their entire career, and not just a fraction of it. The risk here is that the player in question never takes the next step. There are lots of guys like Beanie Wells, Kevin Jones, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Braylon Edwards, Roy Williams, and Koren Robinson who never have the career that people expect.

That's why I think you have to be very careful in these situations and avoid paying top dollar for prospects until they've genuinely proven themselves unless they're truly special talents. Obviously making that distinction is easier said than done. There's no magical formula that determines who's legit and who isn't. It's a judgment call. Most of the time I would never recommend taking the "next big thing" over a current superstar, but...if you're absolutely certain about someone and you make the right call, you can reap a massive gain in value.

I think there are a couple guys in this class who qualify as special talents (Luck and Richardson) and I value them accordingly. I would also take a guy like Martin over more "proven" players because I think he offers more value at a lower cost. As for RGIII, I don't think he's as good as Luck and I think he's overvalued by a half notch right now.

I know this was a long time in between posts, but you spent a lot of time to respond and I just read it...I understand your position and it not crazy, but I think you are not valuing the present value enough in your calculations. In your discussion about missing the good years why you wait for being proven; it is accurate, but a player may never become proven. Think about trading Ryan Leaf for Brees? Ronnie Brown as a rookie for MJD etc...You also have to remember that with a QB, being really good does not mean you post great fantasy numbers; so having a guy who is "money" does have value. While the reward IF it works out will be longer, it may not be more fruitful. There are plenty of decent guys, busts and even good ones that still may not be worth 2-3 years of top 3 QB play.

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It looks like you're missing a few players that came onto the FF radar in the past couple months, like Josh Gordon, Rod Streater, and LaVon Brazill.

They are not available on the ranking website I use Gordon goes in at WR48Streater goes in at WR45Brazill goes in at WR65
Ok I updated the changed with the new imported guys.Upon further review I decided it was ridiculous of me to put Streater above both Quick and Wright... I put him at 48, Put Gordon at 49 and Brazill at 65
You actually shocked me, I thought you would have Streater higher...

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10/29/12:

http://fantasy-footballu.com/russell-clay-rankings/

Hey guys, It's already week 8! Considering the season is half over already and update was needed.. I knew without even looking a lot had changed

here are some of the big changes:

Quarterback:

Up-

Andrew Luck #2

Robert Griffin #4

Ben Roethlisberger #10

Josh Freeman #12

Nick Foles #29

Down-

Matthew Stafford #8

Phillip Rivers #14

Michael Vick #20

Running Back:

Up-

Trent Richardson #1

Adrian Peterson #5

CJ Spiller #7

Stevan Rdiley #14

Alfred Morris #17

Mikel Leshoure #21

Daryl Richardson #34

Ronnie Hillman #35

Jonathan Dwyer #37

Bernard Pierce #41

Mike Goodson #42

Down-

Darren McFadden #9

Steven Jackson #30

Deangelo Williams #38

Donald Brown #49

Cedric Benson off the list

Wide Receiver:

Up-

Percy Harvin #4

Demaryius Thomas #5

Victor Cruz #7

Vincent Jackson #12

Randall Cobb #13

Antonio Brown #18

Eric Decker #22

Denarius Moore #23

Reggie Wayne #25

Josh Gordon #33

Mike Williams #35

Andre Roberts #43

James Jones #54

Brian Hartline #55

Cecil Shorts #60

Chris Givens #61

Down-

Larry Fitzgerald #5

Greg Jennings #20

Andre Johnson #21

Justin Blackmon #29

Brandon Lloyd #39

Greg Little #52

Santonio Holmes #64

Leonard Hankerson #65

Rod Streater #68

Tight End

Up-

Aaron Hernandez #5

Kyle Rudolph #7

Heath Miller #8

Owen Daniels #9

Martellus Bennett #12

Robert Housler #19

Brandon Myers #26

Down-

Jermichael Finley #15

Fred Davis #21

Lance Kendricks #23

As always, let me know what you think

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1/26/13http://fantasy-footballu.com/russell-clay-rankings/A lot has changed... Most notably for me is that I'm finally over my Brandon Lloyd stage, it feels good to be free lolThe RB position is really interesting to look at, a lot of turnover and I expect free agency and the draft to deeply affect RB13-30.Some Notable rankings:RG3 - QB9 I need to see him play again, if I see he can come back from this (mentally and physically) then I will move him back to QB2...Randall Cobb - WR9 ... I didn't want to put him there,It felt forced, but there really isn't much young competition for him other than the elite talentsDavid Wilson- RB13Russell Wilson -QB6Cecil Shorts- WR29Brandon Lloyd- WR49!!

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What are your thoughts on Fleener? Can't say he looks like a TE1 at all.

I'm giving Fleener a mulligan for 2012. I believe in his talent and I certainly believe in Luck's talent. It looks like the Colts offense is heading towards being a juggernaut in a few years and I would rather be early to the party than late. It seems logical to me to take the risk on Coby rather than take on all the already known's like Daniels, Miller, Pettigrew, Etc.I think the ceiling here is borderline elite, probably not on the Gronk or Graham level, but pretty close. I think Allen is a nice piece but not a huge threat to Fleener's role, he translated better to year 1 because he was already a good blocker, I think the long term will favor Fleener.

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1/26/13http://fantasy-footballu.com/russell-clay-rankings/A lot has changed... Most notably for me is that I'm finally over my Brandon Lloyd stage, it feels good to be free lolThe RB position is really interesting to look at, a lot of turnover and I expect free agency and the draft to deeply affect RB13-30.Some Notable rankings:RG3 - QB9 I need to see him play again, if I see he can come back from this (mentally and physically) then I will move him back to QB2...Randall Cobb - WR9 ... I didn't want to put him there,It felt forced, but there really isn't much young competition for him other than the elite talentsDavid Wilson- RB13Russell Wilson -QB6Cecil Shorts- WR29Brandon Lloyd- WR49!!

The difference between Cobb and Nelson is the biggest thing that stuck out to me.

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1/26/13http://fantasy-footballu.com/russell-clay-rankings/A lot has changed... Most notably for me is that I'm finally over my Brandon Lloyd stage, it feels good to be free lolThe RB position is really interesting to look at, a lot of turnover and I expect free agency and the draft to deeply affect RB13-30.Some Notable rankings:RG3 - QB9 I need to see him play again, if I see he can come back from this (mentally and physically) then I will move him back to QB2...Randall Cobb - WR9 ... I didn't want to put him there,It felt forced, but there really isn't much young competition for him other than the elite talentsDavid Wilson- RB13Russell Wilson -QB6Cecil Shorts- WR29Brandon Lloyd- WR49!!

The difference between Cobb and Nelson is the biggest thing that stuck out to me.
I'm not against Nelson, I think teams had a better gameplan for the Packers deep ball this year and that is a big part of Nelson's game. I still think he is a good WR, just not what his stats were in 2011.I think Cobb has more opportunity for catches and yards in the way the offense is set up now.

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I believe LaMichael James has better upside than any of the current MIA RB's. James was taken in the 2nd round, has shown a lot of production in his opportunities, and has game changing potential when he has the ball. Harbaugh has shown a penchant for preferring big play players, and Gore was taken in the 2005 draft which to me is on the cusp of "aging RB". For 2014, I see James' upside as a potential top 10 back, with plenty of opportunity to contribute fantasy-wise as a flex or RB2 in 2013.Overall this is a great thread, very nice work here. I'll definitely be checking in. :blackdot:

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1/26/13http://fantasy-footballu.com/russell-clay-rankings/A lot has changed... Most notably for me is that I'm finally over my Brandon Lloyd stage, it feels good to be free lolThe RB position is really interesting to look at, a lot of turnover and I expect free agency and the draft to deeply affect RB13-30.Some Notable rankings:RG3 - QB9 I need to see him play again, if I see he can come back from this (mentally and physically) then I will move him back to QB2...Randall Cobb - WR9 ... I didn't want to put him there,It felt forced, but there really isn't much young competition for him other than the elite talentsDavid Wilson- RB13Russell Wilson -QB6Cecil Shorts- WR29Brandon Lloyd- WR49!!

The difference between Cobb and Nelson is the biggest thing that stuck out to me.
I'm not against Nelson, I think teams had a better gameplan for the Packers deep ball this year and that is a big part of Nelson's game. I still think he is a good WR, just not what his stats were in 2011.I think Cobb has more opportunity for catches and yards in the way the offense is set up now.
Just some stats to keep in mind. Nelson was injured very early in the 8th game. In the first 7 games, Nelson had produced: 40 receptions, 532 yards, 5 TDs.Prorated over 16 games, that gives: 91 receptions, 1216 yards, 11 TDs.He was producing 17.88 PPG in PPR leagues, which would prorate out to 286 points for the year. In 2011, he has 284 points. His prorated stats this year would have put him as the 8th highest scoring WR (9th in PPG).Even without the deep-ball as he has in 2011, he was doing very well -- and significantly better than Cobb.

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I'm curious about your thoughts on Doug Martin. He seems low in the rankings and I'm wondering if it is residual drag since you weren't high on him to begin with. You have McCoy at 2 and while I love shady there must be some concern given the concussion, the new regime coming in with new offense and Bryce Brown's emergence.

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I believe LaMichael James has better upside than any of the current MIA RB's. James was taken in the 2nd round, has shown a lot of production in his opportunities, and has game changing potential when he has the ball. Harbaugh has shown a penchant for preferring big play players, and Gore was taken in the 2005 draft which to me is on the cusp of "aging RB". For 2014, I see James' upside as a potential top 10 back, with plenty of opportunity to contribute fantasy-wise as a flex or RB2 in 2013.Overall this is a great thread, very nice work here. I'll definitely be checking in. :blackdot:

Thanks man :thumbup: Wasn't the biggest fan of James game translating to the pros but he has looked pretty good late in the season and in the playoffs. Time will tell, I think Gore still has a year or two left and I'm still not sold on what exactly James role will be in the future. If he turns out to be a Darren Sproles type then top 10 isn't out of the question, I'm keeping him below the rest of the handcuffs until I get a better feel.

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1/26/13http://fantasy-footballu.com/russell-clay-rankings/A lot has changed... Most notably for me is that I'm finally over my Brandon Lloyd stage, it feels good to be free lolThe RB position is really interesting to look at, a lot of turnover and I expect free agency and the draft to deeply affect RB13-30.Some Notable rankings:RG3 - QB9 I need to see him play again, if I see he can come back from this (mentally and physically) then I will move him back to QB2...Randall Cobb - WR9 ... I didn't want to put him there,It felt forced, but there really isn't much young competition for him other than the elite talentsDavid Wilson- RB13Russell Wilson -QB6Cecil Shorts- WR29Brandon Lloyd- WR49!!

The difference between Cobb and Nelson is the biggest thing that stuck out to me.
I'm not against Nelson, I think teams had a better gameplan for the Packers deep ball this year and that is a big part of Nelson's game. I still think he is a good WR, just not what his stats were in 2011.I think Cobb has more opportunity for catches and yards in the way the offense is set up now.
Just some stats to keep in mind. Nelson was injured very early in the 8th game. In the first 7 games, Nelson had produced: 40 receptions, 532 yards, 5 TDs.Prorated over 16 games, that gives: 91 receptions, 1216 yards, 11 TDs.He was producing 17.88 PPG in PPR leagues, which would prorate out to 286 points for the year. In 2011, he has 284 points. His prorated stats this year would have put him as the 8th highest scoring WR (9th in PPG).Even without the deep-ball as he has in 2011, he was doing very well -- and significantly better than Cobb.
Interesting stats, good stuff.Again, I like Jordy, I don't think WR25 is an insult, when I put it all together though, I think Cobb simply has more value when you consider age and just how many things he is capable of doing on the field. Hes certainly not Percy Harvin, but hes in the ballpark. Cobb also gets some distance because he is 5 years younger. I think Cobb is special after the catch and through 2 years has shown immense progression, I'm not totally sure where his ceiling is but I'm not gonna be late to the party. As I mentioned in the first post of the update, when it was finally set and Cobb was #9 I didn't feel good about it, but I wouldn't trade anyone ranked lower than him straight up.

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I'm curious about your thoughts on Doug Martin. He seems low in the rankings and I'm wondering if it is residual drag since you weren't high on him to begin with. You have McCoy at 2 and while I love shady there must be some concern given the concussion, the new regime coming in with new offense and Bryce Brown's emergence.

Hmm, I have McCoy ranked #4 in my newest update.but either way, I think it's a big jumbled mess at the top. I kept 1-7 all one tier because their are so many variables heading into next year for all of them. I wouldn't question someone if they completely switched them going #7 to #1. Its preference IMO and largely dependent on how your building your team. I like Martin but I don't think hes the talent that any of the guys I ranked ahead of him are and I'm also worried about the long term sustainability of that Tampa Bay offense. There has been talk of them wanting to move on without Freeman and a big change like that could have negative affects on 2013 and beyond for Martin.

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Tiers seem a bit arbitrary to me. Got no problem with the WR ranks, but given their production and talent level I'm having a tough time justifying a tier difference between Green/Julio/Dez/Demaryius. All are top talents who should (hopefully) have several peak years left. I am a little higher on guys like Shorts, Wright, Floyd, and Holmes, but can't argue too much about those ranks. I know most won't agree, but I have Mendenhall right up there with guys like Forte, MJD, and Johnson. Would gladly trade a Sproles, Ballard, LeShoure, Gore, or Beanie for him. He has a lot more value IMO. Some interesting names in that sixth RB tier. Bryce Brown, Bernard Pierce, Jonathan Stewart, Robert Turbin, Ryan Williams. If you're looking for a starter level talent at backup prices, that's not a bad place to start.

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Tiers seem a bit arbitrary to me. Got no problem with the WR ranks, but given their production and talent level I'm having a tough time justifying a tier difference between Green/Julio/Dez/Demaryius. All are top talents who should (hopefully) have several peak years left. I am a little higher on guys like Shorts, Wright, Floyd, and Holmes, but can't argue too much about those ranks. I know most won't agree, but I have Mendenhall right up there with guys like Forte, MJD, and Johnson. Would gladly trade a Sproles, Ballard, LeShoure, Gore, or Beanie for him. He has a lot more value IMO. Some interesting names in that sixth RB tier. Bryce Brown, Bernard Pierce, Jonathan Stewart, Robert Turbin, Ryan Williams. If you're looking for a starter level talent at backup prices, that's not a bad place to start.

I actually do see differences in the guys at the top and I felt there is enough difference that the tiers were deserved.as it goes 1. calvin 2. green. 3. Julio 4. Dez 5. Demaryius I would not trade any of the former for the latter I.E. calvin for green, green for julio, julio for dez, dez for demaryius.I'm sure some have different opinions but the top WRs are coming in loud and clear for me this time around.hmmm, Mendenhall is an interesting one, I think hes a solid talent but I'm not sure where he goes and what type of role he will be in.You think hes for sure a feature back with his new team? seems more like a two down back with the way they used him in Pitt.

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hmmm, Mendenhall is an interesting one, I think hes a solid talent but I'm not sure where he goes and what type of role he will be in.You think hes for sure a feature back with his new team? seems more like a two down back with the way they used him in Pitt.

He was the starter in Pitt for three years before he went down with the knee injury. If you ask most Steeler fans, they'll say he was clearly the most talented RB in their stable. I think he signs a modest deal either in Pitt or elsewhere and starts from day one ala Lynch, Benson, BJGE. He'll only be 26 next season. I think 2-4 more years of low end RB1/high end RB2 production is a realistic expectation for his remaining career.

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hmmm, Mendenhall is an interesting one, I think hes a solid talent but I'm not sure where he goes and what type of role he will be in.You think hes for sure a feature back with his new team? seems more like a two down back with the way they used him in Pitt.

He was the starter in Pitt for three years before he went down with the knee injury. If you ask most Steeler fans, they'll say he was clearly the most talented RB in their stable. I think he signs a modest deal either in Pitt or elsewhere and starts from day one ala Lynch, Benson, BJGE. He'll only be 26 next season. I think 2-4 more years of low end RB1/high end RB2 production is a realistic expectation for his remaining career.
Which is this July.

Hmmm...it seems that normally if a RB turns 26 he is "sell high" to you precisely because they have turned that age. But Mendy of course is an exception and presents a buying opportunity, with one of the reasons given is that he is "only 26." :unsure:

Yes he can be had really cheaply compared to the higher profile 26 year olds that you advocate their owners trading, but it seems a tad inconsistent to use that age as a selling point in acquiring him given your normal aversion to the "RB Age 26+ Club"

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Yes he can be had really cheaply compared to the higher profile 26 year olds that you advocate their owners trading

You just answered your own question. 2-4 more peak years doesn't appeal to me in the top 15 of a startup draft.But in the 7th-10th round, that's usually good value.

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hmmm, Mendenhall is an interesting one, I think hes a solid talent but I'm not sure where he goes and what type of role he will be in.You think hes for sure a feature back with his new team? seems more like a two down back with the way they used him in Pitt.

He was the starter in Pitt for three years before he went down with the knee injury. If you ask most Steeler fans, they'll say he was clearly the most talented RB in their stable. I think he signs a modest deal either in Pitt or elsewhere and starts from day one ala Lynch, Benson, BJGE. He'll only be 26 next season. I think 2-4 more years of low end RB1/high end RB2 production is a realistic expectation for his remaining career.
Which is this July.

Hmmm...it seems that normally if a RB turns 26 he is "sell high" to you precisely because they have turned that age. But Mendy of course is an exception and presents a buying opportunity, with one of the reasons given is that he is "only 26." :unsure:

Yes he can be had really cheaply compared to the higher profile 26 year olds that you advocate their owners trading, but it seems a tad inconsistent to use that age as a selling point in acquiring him given your normal aversion to the "RB Age 26+ Club"

I guess in this case, "only 26" could be implied in the context to mean he's not necessarily old and washed up like most FA running backs entering the market looking for that last big payday.

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Miami Herald beat writer Armando Salguero thinks Reggie Bush will not re-sign and that Lamar Miller is the guy.From his Twitter feed: "Dolphins respect Reggie Bush's work ethic and production. But team thinks Lamar Miller, who's bigger and faster, could be better. And if Bush is going to ask for $4-$5 million per year, it makes sense to offer what team is comfortable with and if he balks, let him walk. So Reggie Bush will likely test free agency, as I've written, without certainty about where he'll land -- in Miami or elsewhere. I don't know if Miller will be tons better than Bush. I think he will. But no doubt he's much cheaper. That matters. Interesting in all this? Nobody I speak with is saying Daniel Thomas will take over the starting RB job next year. Nobody."

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I wonder what salguero's relationship was with miller when he was at Miami. Did he write about him glowingly them? Could be confirmation bias

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I wonder what salguero's relationship was with miller when he was at Miami. Did he write about him glowingly them? Could be confirmation bias

Its not like there was a crazy notion about Miller's talent -- most had him as a late-first/early-second round pick, and a good number of people had him ahead of Wilson in this class. Supposedly he fell, at least partially, about medical concerns with his shoulders. Some also speculated that he didn't interview well/concerns with his ability to pick up playbook.

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Just seems like the hype machine kicked in extra early on miller this year.

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