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Calculated Power Rankings (1 Viewer)

Random

Random

Footballguy
I used to do this weekly, but got bored with it. I was just curious who it would spit out on top since there doesn't seem to be a clear #1 yet.

Basically, what this does is calculate a score based purely based on what team each team has beat. Not by how much, home or away, injured or healthy, rainy or sunny. Just wins and losses. And the strength of the teams each team has beaten. Enjoy.

Comments welcome!

Code: 
1	Patriots2	49ers3	Texans4	Seahawks5	Falcons6	Giants7	Packers8	Ravens9	Colts10	Redskins11	Broncos12	Bears13	Steelers14	Rams15	Vikings16	Cowboys17	Bengals18	Jets19	Dolphins20	Cardinals21	Eagles22	Saints23	Buccaneers24	Panthers25	Browns26	Titans27	Lions28	Bills29	Chargers30	Jaguars31	Raiders32	Chiefs
 
Looks pretty legit. Seahawks obv a bit high since they're not gonna be playing at home in the playoffs, so likely a quick exit.

Giants will also beat the Falcons this weekend so those can be swapped.

 
Interesting to see the Broncos as low as they are as it seems many are liking their chances to possibly be a superbowl team.

 
'Warhogs said:
Interesting to see the Broncos as low as they are as it seems many are liking their chances to possibly be a superbowl team.
Click to expand...
Yes, I agree. But look at who they have beat:
Code: 
steelers(13) raiders(31) chargers(29) saints(22) bengals(17) panthers(24) chargers(29) chiefs(32) buccaneers(23) raiders(31)
The Steelers and Bengals are they're highest ranked wins. Short them.
 
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'Random said:
'Warhogs said:
Interesting to see the Broncos as low as they are as it seems many are liking their chances to possibly be a superbowl team.
Click to expand...
Yes, I agree. But look at who they have beat:
Code: 
steelers(13) raiders(31) chargers(29) saints(22) bengals(17) panthers(24) chargers(29) chiefs(32) buccaneers(23) raiders(31)
The Steelers and Bengals are they're highest ranked wins. Short them.
Click to expand...
shouldn't you also account for teams that lost to poor teams? Cardinals (20) beat NE. 49ers lost to Vikings (15) and Rams (14). Broncos, mean while, haven't lost to a team worse than 5th on this list.
 
'moleculo said:
'Random said:
'Warhogs said:
Interesting to see the Broncos as low as they are as it seems many are liking their chances to possibly be a superbowl team.
Click to expand...
Yes, I agree. But look at who they have beat:
Code: 
steelers(13) raiders(31) chargers(29) saints(22) bengals(17) panthers(24) chargers(29) chiefs(32) buccaneers(23) raiders(31)
The Steelers and Bengals are they're highest ranked wins. Short them.
Click to expand...
shouldn't you also account for teams that lost to poor teams? Cardinals (20) beat NE. 49ers lost to Vikings (15) and Rams (14). Broncos, mean while, haven't lost to a team worse than 5th on this list.
Click to expand...
Well, in a way I do. If the 49ers had beaten the Vikes and Rams they would be a clear #1. The Broncos had 3 chances to earn some real points and didn't do it. Had they beaten any one of the 3 it would have them at #6. I don't see how they can move up because they lost to good teams. :confused:
 
Good thread. I do power rankings mainly for discussion on another forum. HEre are my current rankings.

If you look at Power % and the gap between #1 and #2, it's basically the Pats in their own league right now.

Code: 
Rank	Team                  Change	Power %1	New England Patriots	0	100.00%2	Denver Broncos  	1	75.87%3	Houston Texans  	-1	72.00%4	San Francisco 49ers	3	69.74%5	Green Bay Packers	0	68.23%6	New York Giants 	4	67.85%7	Washington Redskins	2	66.01%8	Seattle Seahawks	3	65.85%9	Chicago Bears   	-3	60.47%10	Baltimore Ravens	-2	57.45%11	Atlanta Falcons 	-7	56.88%12	Dallas Cowboys  	4	49.35%13	St. Louis Rams  	2	47.98%14	Minnesota Vikings	8	44.49%15	Cleveland Browns	3	44.01%16	Cincinnati Bengals	-4	42.46%17	Indianapolis Colts	3	42.21%18	New York Jets   	1	41.89%19	New Orleans Saints	-2	41.21%20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-6	41.02%21	San Diego Chargers	6	39.34%22	Pittsburgh Steelers	-9	38.16%23	Carolina Panthers	2	37.12%24	Buffalo Bills   	-3	27.72%25	Miami Dolphins  	-2	27.23%26	Detroit Lions   	0	26.77%27	Arizona Cardinals	-3	22.96%28	Philadelphia Eagles	4	19.89%29	Tennessee Titans	-1	18.40%30	Jacksonville Jaguars	-1	13.06%31	Oakland Raiders  	-1	7.14%32	Kansas City Chiefs	-1	0.00%
 
'Random said:
'moleculo said:
'Random said:
'Warhogs said:
Interesting to see the Broncos as low as they are as it seems many are liking their chances to possibly be a superbowl team.
Click to expand...
Yes, I agree. But look at who they have beat:
Code: 
steelers(13) raiders(31) chargers(29) saints(22) bengals(17) panthers(24) chargers(29) chiefs(32) buccaneers(23) raiders(31)
The Steelers and Bengals are they're highest ranked wins. Short them.
Click to expand...
shouldn't you also account for teams that lost to poor teams? Cardinals (20) beat NE. 49ers lost to Vikings (15) and Rams (14). Broncos, mean while, haven't lost to a team worse than 5th on this list.
Click to expand...
Well, in a way I do. If the 49ers had beaten the Vikes and Rams they would be a clear #1. The Broncos had 3 chances to earn some real points and didn't do it. Had they beaten any one of the 3 it would have them at #6. I don't see how they can move up because they lost to good teams. :confused:
Click to expand...
the same way the pats or 49ers don't move down by losing to bad teams.
 
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'butcher boy said:
Good thread. I do power rankings mainly for discussion on another forum. HEre are my current rankings.If you look at Power % and the gap between #1 and #2, it's basically the Pats in their own league right now.

Code: 
Rank	Team                  Change	Power %1	New England Patriots	0	100.00%2	Denver Broncos  	1	75.87%3	Houston Texans  	-1	72.00%4	San Francisco 49ers	3	69.74%5	Green Bay Packers	0	68.23%6	New York Giants 	4	67.85%7	Washington Redskins	2	66.01%8	Seattle Seahawks	3	65.85%9	Chicago Bears   	-3	60.47%10	Baltimore Ravens	-2	57.45%11	Atlanta Falcons 	-7	56.88%12	Dallas Cowboys  	4	49.35%13	St. Louis Rams  	2	47.98%14	Minnesota Vikings	8	44.49%15	Cleveland Browns	3	44.01%16	Cincinnati Bengals	-4	42.46%17	Indianapolis Colts	3	42.21%18	New York Jets   	1	41.89%19	New Orleans Saints	-2	41.21%20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-6	41.02%21	San Diego Chargers	6	39.34%22	Pittsburgh Steelers	-9	38.16%23	Carolina Panthers	2	37.12%24	Buffalo Bills   	-3	27.72%25	Miami Dolphins  	-2	27.23%26	Detroit Lions   	0	26.77%27	Arizona Cardinals	-3	22.96%28	Philadelphia Eagles	4	19.89%29	Tennessee Titans	-1	18.40%30	Jacksonville Jaguars	-1	13.06%31	Oakland Raiders  	-1	7.14%32	Kansas City Chiefs	-1	0.00%
Click to expand...
I've got more of a "bunch" at the top. Definitely dont get the Broncos at #2. But I guess I'm in the minority...
 
'Random said:
'butcher boy said:
Good thread. I do power rankings mainly for discussion on another forum. HEre are my current rankings.If you look at Power % and the gap between #1 and #2, it's basically the Pats in their own league right now.

Code: 
Rank	Team                  Change	Power %1	New England Patriots	0	100.00%2	Denver Broncos  	1	75.87%3	Houston Texans  	-1	72.00%4	San Francisco 49ers	3	69.74%5	Green Bay Packers	0	68.23%6	New York Giants 	4	67.85%7	Washington Redskins	2	66.01%8	Seattle Seahawks	3	65.85%9	Chicago Bears   	-3	60.47%10	Baltimore Ravens	-2	57.45%11	Atlanta Falcons 	-7	56.88%12	Dallas Cowboys  	4	49.35%13	St. Louis Rams  	2	47.98%14	Minnesota Vikings	8	44.49%15	Cleveland Browns	3	44.01%16	Cincinnati Bengals	-4	42.46%17	Indianapolis Colts	3	42.21%18	New York Jets   	1	41.89%19	New Orleans Saints	-2	41.21%20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-6	41.02%21	San Diego Chargers	6	39.34%22	Pittsburgh Steelers	-9	38.16%23	Carolina Panthers	2	37.12%24	Buffalo Bills   	-3	27.72%25	Miami Dolphins  	-2	27.23%26	Detroit Lions   	0	26.77%27	Arizona Cardinals	-3	22.96%28	Philadelphia Eagles	4	19.89%29	Tennessee Titans	-1	18.40%30	Jacksonville Jaguars	-1	13.06%31	Oakland Raiders  	-1	7.14%32	Kansas City Chiefs	-1	0.00%
Click to expand...
I've got more of a "bunch" at the top. Definitely dont get the Broncos at #2. But I guess I'm in the minority...
Click to expand...
Win streaks factors heavily into my rankings. I do this because I think momentum is huge when looking at power. If all you want to look at is wins and losses then just go pull up the current standings. The Denver Broncos have won 8 games in a row, which is a really good definition, IMO, of a team with a high amount of "power". That said, as soon as they lose a game I can see them losing quite a few spots due to their fairly easy SOS, and unimpressive turnover ratio to date. New England is in their own league due to their own impressive win streak despite a fairly tough SOS, an unreal turnover ratio, and being pretty much at the top of almost every other stat category. They are the clear Superbowl favorite in my mind.
 
'butcher boy said:
The Denver Broncos have won 8 games in a row, which is a really good definition, IMO, of a team with a high amount of "power". That said, as soon as they lose a game I can see them losing quite a few spots due to their fairly easy SOS, and unimpressive turnover ratio to date.
Click to expand...
See, I think this is indicative of a flawed model. If they drop a bunch in your power rankings just by losing a single game, then there's something wrong. You either have them appropriately ranked or you don't - there shouldn't be a massive swing based on one loss, especially not this late in the season. It's the NFL, any team can beat any other team on any given Sunday. If they're the #2 team in the NFL right now, one loss shouldn't change that much. If, as you say, they've played an easy schedule and have an unimpressive turnover ratio, then you should probably reconsider any model that ranks them the second-best team in the league.
 
'meyerj31 said:
Looks pretty legit. Seahawks obv a bit high since they're not gonna be playing at home in the playoffs, so likely a quick exit.

Giants will also beat the Falcons this weekend so those can be swapped.
Click to expand...
Why not? SF loses in NE. SEA beats SF at home. Are these unreasonable outcomes?

We can even take this one step further... ATL/GB loses in the first round at home and Seattle wins home field throughout? Unlikely, but it could happen.

 
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
'butcher boy said:
The Denver Broncos have won 8 games in a row, which is a really good definition, IMO, of a team with a high amount of "power". That said, as soon as they lose a game I can see them losing quite a few spots due to their fairly easy SOS, and unimpressive turnover ratio to date.
Click to expand...
See, I think this is indicative of a flawed model. If they drop a bunch in your power rankings just by losing a single game, then there's something wrong. You either have them appropriately ranked or you don't - there shouldn't be a massive swing based on one loss, especially not this late in the season. It's the NFL, any team can beat any other team on any given Sunday. If they're the #2 team in the NFL right now, one loss shouldn't change that much. If, as you say, they've played an easy schedule and have an unimpressive turnover ratio, then you should probably reconsider any model that ranks them the second-best team in the league.
Click to expand...
Again, it's momentum and I think its worth something. Even against relatively weak opponents, 8 game win streaks are impressive. They'd still certainly be top ten if they lost, and if you look at how I normalize my rankings using power %, there is not a big difference between the #2 team and the #6-8 team right now.
 
Another way to look at is given the following extreme example.

Say you have two teams and both are 8-8. One team has lost 8 in a row, the other has won 8 in a row. Which one would you say is the current better team, or the one you'd be more scared of to go up against right now? That's pretty much how I look at power rankings.

 
'butcher boy said:
Another way to look at is given the following extreme example.Say you have two teams and both are 8-8. One team has lost 8 in a row, the other has won 8 in a row. Which one would you say is the current better team, or the one you'd be more scared of to go up against right now? That's pretty much how I look at power rankings.
Click to expand...
I would say it depends on who they have played. If the 8-0 (over the last 8 weeks) team has played 8 JV teams they will likely lose to an 0-8 (over the last 8 weeks) that has played the top 8 teams. Thats how my model works anyway.This week should be fairly telling. The Broncos play the Ravens. My model has the Ravens ahead of the Broncos.I also have the Panthers > Chargers , Jets > Titans and the Cardinals > Lions (gulp). These are the 4 upsets I have this week.
 
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'moleculo said:
'Random said:
'moleculo said:
'Random said:
'Warhogs said:
Interesting to see the Broncos as low as they are as it seems many are liking their chances to possibly be a superbowl team.
Click to expand...
Yes, I agree. But look at who they have beat:
Code: 
steelers(13) raiders(31) chargers(29) saints(22) bengals(17) panthers(24) chargers(29) chiefs(32) buccaneers(23) raiders(31)
The Steelers and Bengals are they're highest ranked wins. Short them.
Click to expand...
shouldn't you also account for teams that lost to poor teams? Cardinals (20) beat NE. 49ers lost to Vikings (15) and Rams (14). Broncos, mean while, haven't lost to a team worse than 5th on this list.
Click to expand...
Well, in a way I do. If the 49ers had beaten the Vikes and Rams they would be a clear #1. The Broncos had 3 chances to earn some real points and didn't do it. Had they beaten any one of the 3 it would have them at #6. I don't see how they can move up because they lost to good teams. :confused:
Click to expand...
the same way the pats or 49ers don't move down by losing to bad teams.
Click to expand...
As I stated above, the 49ers are #2 because they didn't beat those 2 bad teams. Had they won either game they would be #1. The Pats would be further ahead if they had beat any of the teams they lost to. So they do lose points by losing. Still :confused:
 
'Random said:
'moleculo said:
'Random said:
'moleculo said:
'Random said:
'Warhogs said:
Interesting to see the Broncos as low as they are as it seems many are liking their chances to possibly be a superbowl team.
Click to expand...
Yes, I agree. But look at who they have beat:
Code: 
steelers(13) raiders(31) chargers(29) saints(22) bengals(17) panthers(24) chargers(29) chiefs(32) buccaneers(23) raiders(31)
The Steelers and Bengals are they're highest ranked wins. Short them.
Click to expand...
shouldn't you also account for teams that lost to poor teams? Cardinals (20) beat NE. 49ers lost to Vikings (15) and Rams (14). Broncos, mean while, haven't lost to a team worse than 5th on this list.
Click to expand...
Well, in a way I do. If the 49ers had beaten the Vikes and Rams they would be a clear #1. The Broncos had 3 chances to earn some real points and didn't do it. Had they beaten any one of the 3 it would have them at #6. I don't see how they can move up because they lost to good teams. :confused:
Click to expand...
the same way the pats or 49ers don't move down by losing to bad teams.
Click to expand...
As I stated above, the 49ers are #2 because they didn't beat those 2 bad teams. Had they won either game they would be #1. The Pats would be further ahead if they had beat any of the teams they lost to. So they do lose points by losing. Still :confused:
Click to expand...
If I understand your methodology correctly, you award points for beating good teams, but all losses are equal in that they all score a zero. is this correct?What I'm trying to say is that all losses are not equal - there is no shame in losing to a team better than you are, but there should be for losing to a team worse than you are.You knock the Broncos for not beating any of the better teams, and that's fair. I would also like to point out, however, that the Broncos haven't had that "oops" game that everyone else has had either. Let's look at the Giants ahead of the Broncos. You seem to find it more important that they beat the 49ers, Packers, Redskins, etc. What about their losses to Philly, Washington, Steelers, cowboys, and Bengals? There's five losses to teams worse than they are. Shouldn't that mean the Giants are overrated?
 
I guess I just disagree with that logic. Its definitely hard to place teams like the Giants (inconsistent but can beat top teams) and Broncos (consistent at beating med & bad teams, but cant beat top teams). I'd be interested to see your list.

 
'Random said:
I guess I just disagree with that logic. Its definitely hard to place teams like the Giants (inconsistent but can beat top teams) and Broncos (consistent at beating med & bad teams, but cant beat top teams). I'd be interested to see your list.
Click to expand...
I'd argue that you don't know if the Broncos couldn't beat a top team right now. The last time they played a top team was way back in week 5. With the way some teams change over the course of the season, that game might as well have been played last season. Since then, they've done what you'd expect a top team to do, beat up on weaker opponents.
 
'Random said:
I guess I just disagree with that logic. Its definitely hard to place teams like the Giants (inconsistent but can beat top teams) and Broncos (consistent at beating med & bad teams, but cant beat top teams). I'd be interested to see your list.
Click to expand...
I don't maintain a list on my own, but the one metric that I do pay attention to is PFR's simple Rating System (SRS). Here's how the teams stack up:
Code: 
New England Patriots	14.4San Francisco 49ers	10.7Seattle Seahawks	9New York Giants  	8.8Denver Broncos  	8.1Chicago Bears   	7Houston Texans  	6.7Green Bay Packers	4.4Atlanta Falcons 	3.8Baltimore Ravens	3.6Washington Redskins	2.4Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.4Dallas Cowboys  	1.3Cincinnati Bengals	1.2Minnesota Vikings	0.4Pittsburgh Steelers	-0.3St. Louis Rams  	-0.7Detroit Lions   	-0.8San Diego Chargers	-0.9New Orleans Saints	-1.5Carolina Panthers	-1.6Miami Dolphins  	-2.8Cleveland Browns	-3New York Jets   	-3.3Buffalo Bills   	-5.3Indianapolis Colts	-5.4Arizona Cardinals	-5.6Philadelphia Eagles	-6.8Tennessee Titans	-8.6Jacksonville Jaguars	-12.3Oakland Raiders  	-12.5Kansas City Chiefs	-12.7
a score of 0 roughly corresponds with NFL average, and per PFR, you can use the difference between SRS as a point spread, adding 2 points to the home team. This metric accounts for margin of victory as well as strength of schedule.Here's the thing: Broncos are the only team in the league to have both a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense. They may have played a weaker schedule, but have the 3rd largest margin of victory in the league. When I see things like this, and then see a power ranking where the Broncos are ranked 11th, it really makes me question the validity of that ranking scheme.
 
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'butcher boy said:
'Random said:
I guess I just disagree with that logic. Its definitely hard to place teams like the Giants (inconsistent but can beat top teams) and Broncos (consistent at beating med & bad teams, but cant beat top teams). I'd be interested to see your list.
Click to expand...
I'd argue that you don't know if the Broncos couldn't beat a top team right now. The last time they played a top team was way back in week 5. With the way some teams change over the course of the season, that game might as well have been played last season. Since then, they've done what you'd expect a top team to do, beat up on weaker opponents.
Click to expand...
We dont know anything until it plays out. All we can do is analyze what has happened.
 
'moleculo said:
'Random said:
I guess I just disagree with that logic. Its definitely hard to place teams like the Giants (inconsistent but can beat top teams) and Broncos (consistent at beating med & bad teams, but cant beat top teams). I'd be interested to see your list.
Click to expand...
I don't maintain a list on my own, but the one metric that I do pay attention to is PFR's simple Rating System (SRS). Here's how the teams stack up:
Code: 
New England Patriots	14.4San Francisco 49ers	10.7Seattle Seahawks	9New York Giants  	8.8Denver Broncos  	8.1Chicago Bears   	7Houston Texans  	6.7Green Bay Packers	4.4Atlanta Falcons 	3.8Baltimore Ravens	3.6Washington Redskins	2.4Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.4Dallas Cowboys  	1.3Cincinnati Bengals	1.2Minnesota Vikings	0.4Pittsburgh Steelers	-0.3St. Louis Rams  	-0.7Detroit Lions   	-0.8San Diego Chargers	-0.9New Orleans Saints	-1.5Carolina Panthers	-1.6Miami Dolphins  	-2.8Cleveland Browns	-3New York Jets   	-3.3Buffalo Bills   	-5.3Indianapolis Colts	-5.4Arizona Cardinals	-5.6Philadelphia Eagles	-6.8Tennessee Titans	-8.6Jacksonville Jaguars	-12.3Oakland Raiders  	-12.5Kansas City Chiefs	-12.7
a score of 0 roughly corresponds with NFL average, and per PFR, you can use the difference between SRS as a point spread, adding 2 points to the home team. This metric accounts for margin of victory as well as strength of schedule.Here's the thing: Broncos are the only team in the league to have both a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense. They may have played a weaker schedule, but have the 3rd largest margin of victory in the league. When I see things like this, and then see a power ranking where the Broncos are ranked 11th, it really makes me question the validity of that ranking scheme.
Click to expand...
Well if the Rams had played the Broncos schedule, they might have a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense too. What happens when you take out the 5 games against Chargers, Raiders and Chiefs?
 
'Random said:
'moleculo said:
'Random said:
I guess I just disagree with that logic. Its definitely hard to place teams like the Giants (inconsistent but can beat top teams) and Broncos (consistent at beating med & bad teams, but cant beat top teams). I'd be interested to see your list.
Click to expand...
I don't maintain a list on my own, but the one metric that I do pay attention to is PFR's simple Rating System (SRS). Here's how the teams stack up:
Code: 
New England Patriots	14.4San Francisco 49ers	10.7Seattle Seahawks	9New York Giants  	8.8Denver Broncos  	8.1Chicago Bears   	7Houston Texans  	6.7Green Bay Packers	4.4Atlanta Falcons 	3.8Baltimore Ravens	3.6Washington Redskins	2.4Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.4Dallas Cowboys  	1.3Cincinnati Bengals	1.2Minnesota Vikings	0.4Pittsburgh Steelers	-0.3St. Louis Rams  	-0.7Detroit Lions   	-0.8San Diego Chargers	-0.9New Orleans Saints	-1.5Carolina Panthers	-1.6Miami Dolphins  	-2.8Cleveland Browns	-3New York Jets   	-3.3Buffalo Bills   	-5.3Indianapolis Colts	-5.4Arizona Cardinals	-5.6Philadelphia Eagles	-6.8Tennessee Titans	-8.6Jacksonville Jaguars	-12.3Oakland Raiders  	-12.5Kansas City Chiefs	-12.7
a score of 0 roughly corresponds with NFL average, and per PFR, you can use the difference between SRS as a point spread, adding 2 points to the home team. This metric accounts for margin of victory as well as strength of schedule.Here's the thing: Broncos are the only team in the league to have both a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense. They may have played a weaker schedule, but have the 3rd largest margin of victory in the league. When I see things like this, and then see a power ranking where the Broncos are ranked 11th, it really makes me question the validity of that ranking scheme.
Click to expand...
Well if the Rams had played the Broncos schedule, they might have a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense too. What happens when you take out the 5 games against Chargers, Raiders and Chiefs?
Click to expand...
to be fair, you should also take out the 5 games the rams played against the cardinals, dolphins, jets, an bills. What happens then?
 
below is a list of all Bronco opponents, what the Broncos scored against them and what that team has allowed, on average. You should be able to see that Denver has consistently outscored what their opponents have allowed, indicating productivity isn't necessarily a function of simply playing bad teams. The only real exceptions were the 17 points they scored against KC and 26 vs oakland, which actually works against the notion they are just racking up points against terrible teams.

Pittsburgh Steelers 31 20.3Atlanta Falcons 21 19.9Houston Texans 25 20.2Oakland Raiders 37 30.9New England Patriots 21 21.1San Diego Chargers 35 21.6New Orleans Saints 34 29.2Cincinnati Bengals 31 21.5Carolina Panthers 36 24.0San Diego Chargers 30 21.6Kansas City Chiefs 17 27.1Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 23.7oakland raiders 26 30.9
On the other side of the ball they are a top 5 defense, despite playing the #1, #4, #5, #6, #8, and #11 offenses all ready. Broncos have faced 5 of the top 10 offenses in the league, and only 4 games against the bottom 10 offenses.

Here is a similar list to the one above - opponent, score vs Broncos, score vs average. Again, you can see that opponents have scored pretty consistently less vs Denver than they have vs other opponents.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 21.4Atlanta Falcons 27 25.9Houston Texans 31 28.1Oakland Raiders 6 19.1New England Patriots 31 36.3San Diego Chargers 24 22.5New Orleans Saints 14 26.8Cincinnati Bengals 23 24.7Carolina Panthers 14 20.4San Diego Chargers 23 22.5Kansas City Chiefs 9 15.0Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 27.2oakland raiders 13 19.1
The point I'm trying to make here is that Denver's top 5 offense and defense is not purely a product of a weak schedule. They have consistently outscored what their opponents have allowed, and they have prevented opponents from hitting their average production.

 
This could easily be accomplished by not resting your starters with a sizable lead against bad opponents.

Code: 
PASSING STATISTICSPlayer	 Att	 Comp	 Yds	 Comp %	 Yds/Att	 TD	 TD %	 INT	 INT %	 Long	 Sck	 Sack/Lost	 RatingPeyton Manning	483	330	3812	68.3	7.9	30	6.2	10	2.1	71	19	120	104.0Matt Prater	1	0	0	0.0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	--	0	0	39.6
 
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'Random said:
This could easily be accomplished by not resting your starters with a sizable lead against bad opponents.

Code: 
PASSING STATISTICSPlayer	 Att	 Comp	 Yds	 Comp %	 Yds/Att	 TD	 TD %	 INT	 INT %	 Long	 Sck	 Sack/Lost	 RatingPeyton Manning	483	330	3812	68.3	7.9	30	6.2	10	2.1	71	19	120	104.0Matt Prater	1	0	0	0.0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	--	0	0	39.6
Click to expand...
who has been doing that - resting the starting QB w/ a sizeable lead? not sure what point you are trying to make here.
 
I went 11-4 so far. How did you guys do?

Code: 
Random  Mole  ButchNY Jets		Tennessee		Cincinnati	34	W     W     WPhiladelphia	13	Indianapolis	17	W     W     WHouston	        29Denver	        34	L     W     WBaltimore       17Jacksonville	3	W     W     WMiami	        24Washington	38	W     W     WCleveland	21	Minnesota	36	L     W     LSt. Louis	22	Tampa Bay	0	W     L     WNew Orleans	41	NY Giants	0	W     L     LAtlanta	        34	Green Bay	21	W     L     WChicago 	13	Seattle	        50	W     W     WBuffalo	        17	Carolina	31	W     L     LSan Diego	7	Detroit	        10	W     L     LArizona	        38	Kansas City	0	W     W     WOakland	        15	Pittsburgh	24	L     W     WDallas	        27	 San Francisco	41	L     L     LNew England	34                       11-4  9-6  10-5
 
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'Random said:
I went 11-4 so far. How did you guys do?

Code: 
Random  Mole  ButchNY Jets		Tennessee		Cincinnati	34	W     W     WPhiladelphia	13	Indianapolis	17	W     W     WHouston	        29Denver	        34	L     W     WBaltimore       17Jacksonville	3	W     W     WMiami	        24Washington	38	W     W     WCleveland	21	Minnesota	36	L     W     LSt. Louis	22	Tampa Bay	0	W     L     WNew Orleans	41	NY Giants	0	W     L     LAtlanta	        34	Green Bay	21	W     L     WChicago 	13	Seattle	        50	W     W     WBuffalo	        17	Carolina	31	W     L     LSan Diego	7	Detroit	        10	W     L     LArizona	        38	Kansas City	0	W     W     WOakland	        15	Pittsburgh	24	L     W     WDallas	        27	 San Francisco	41	L     L     LNew England	34                       11-4  9-6  10-5
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Also 11-4. Picked Tampa, Detroit, Pit, and KC.
 
Very happy with how I did, considering 3 of my losses were in games where two teams ranked next to each other spearated by about 2 percentage points. Those are basically pick'ems.

 
Here's some monday morning controversy.

The Pats are still #1 in my rankings. The rest of the field has caught up however and their 25% lead over the # 2 team has shrunk down to 3%.

It'll also be interesting to see where Seattle is in people's rankings this week.

 
Not mine. I had a bunching at the top before this weekend. Now I have 49ers at #1 and the Pats at #4 (behind the Falcons and Texans).

 
'Random said:
I went 11-4 so far. How did you guys do?

Code: 
Random  Mole  ButchNY Jets		Tennessee		Cincinnati	34	W     W     WPhiladelphia	13	Indianapolis	17	W     W     WHouston	        29Denver	        34	L     W     WBaltimore       17Jacksonville	3	W     W     WMiami	        24Washington	38	W     W     WCleveland	21	Minnesota	36	L     W     LSt. Louis	22	Tampa Bay	0	W     L     WNew Orleans	41	NY Giants	0	W     L     LAtlanta	        34	Green Bay	21	W     L     WChicago 	13	Seattle	        50	W     W     WBuffalo	        17	Carolina	31	W     L     LSan Diego	7	Detroit	        10	W     L     LArizona	        38	Kansas City	0	W     W     WOakland	        15	Pittsburgh	24	L     W     WDallas	        27	 San Francisco	41	L     L     LNew England	34                       11-4  9-6  10-5
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congrats?the only nit I was really picking was Denver @ 11, because they hadn't beaten anyone. Well, they just put a whoopin on a 9-4 team, on the road. Curious to see if you have the 11-3 Broncos in the top 10.
 
'moleculo said:
Here's the thing: Broncos are the only team in the league to have both a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense. They may have played a weaker schedule, but have the 3rd largest margin of victory in the league. When I see things like this, and then see a power ranking where the Broncos are ranked 11th, it really makes me question the validity of that ranking scheme.
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I thought you were questioning the validity of my ranking scheme. :confused:eta - yes, they will be top 10. But not top 5.
 
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'Random said:
'moleculo said:
Here's the thing: Broncos are the only team in the league to have both a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense. They may have played a weaker schedule, but have the 3rd largest margin of victory in the league. When I see things like this, and then see a power ranking where the Broncos are ranked 11th, it really makes me question the validity of that ranking scheme.
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I thought you were questioning the validity of my ranking scheme. :confused:eta - yes, they will be top 10. But not top 5.
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well, yeah, I am... as long as the Broncos are outside the top 10.BTW: did you record the SRS data before this weeks games? They have already updated everything so I can't double-check your numbers.
 
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'moleculo said:
'Random said:
'moleculo said:
Here's the thing: Broncos are the only team in the league to have both a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense. They may have played a weaker schedule, but have the 3rd largest margin of victory in the league. When I see things like this, and then see a power ranking where the Broncos are ranked 11th, it really makes me question the validity of that ranking scheme.
Click to expand...
I thought you were questioning the validity of my ranking scheme. :confused:eta - yes, they will be top 10. But not top 5.
Click to expand...
well, yeah, I am... as long as the Broncos are outside the top 5.BTW: did you record the SRS data before this weeks games? They have already updated everything so I can't double-check your numbers.
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All I have is what you posted here.
 
'moleculo said:
'Random said:
'moleculo said:
Here's the thing: Broncos are the only team in the league to have both a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense. They may have played a weaker schedule, but have the 3rd largest margin of victory in the league. When I see things like this, and then see a power ranking where the Broncos are ranked 11th, it really makes me question the validity of that ranking scheme.
Click to expand...
I thought you were questioning the validity of my ranking scheme. :confused:eta - yes, they will be top 10. But not top 5.
Click to expand...
well, yeah, I am... as long as the Broncos are outside the top 10.BTW: did you record the SRS data before this weeks games? They have already updated everything so I can't double-check your numbers.
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Still not sure how you put them ahead of any of these teams (sneak peek at my new top 5):49ersFalconsTexansPatriotsSeahawksPackers
 
Denver is right in the middle of the pack SOS wise. I don't know why it's used as such a knock against them. They are absolutely top 5. If you want to penalize a winning team for SOS, penalize the Bengals, Colts, or Falcons.

 
'Random said:
'moleculo said:
'Random said:
'moleculo said:
Here's the thing: Broncos are the only team in the league to have both a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense. They may have played a weaker schedule, but have the 3rd largest margin of victory in the league. When I see things like this, and then see a power ranking where the Broncos are ranked 11th, it really makes me question the validity of that ranking scheme.
Click to expand...
I thought you were questioning the validity of my ranking scheme. :confused:eta - yes, they will be top 10. But not top 5.
Click to expand...
well, yeah, I am... as long as the Broncos are outside the top 5.BTW: did you record the SRS data before this weeks games? They have already updated everything so I can't double-check your numbers.
Click to expand...
All I have is what you posted here.
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gotcha - forgot I posted that data above.
 
'butcher boy said:
Denver is right in the middle of the pack SOS wise. I don't know why it's used as such a knock against them. They are absolutely top 5. If you want to penalize a winning team for SOS, penalize the Bengals, Colts, or Falcons.
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I'm not penalizing anyone. They have simply not beat any top tier teams.
 
I do think it's bizarre and unintuitive that you only look at wins. In other words, a team that beat the #10, 13, and 16 teams while losing to the #1, 2, and 3 teams would be ranked the same as a team that beat the #10, 13, and 16 teams while losing to the #30, 31, and 32 teams. Is that correct, or am I misunderstanding your system? And if that's correct, how do you justify the outcome? How do you justify saying that team A, which has only lost to the elite teams in the league, is equally good as team B, which got run out the building against the league's doormats?

 
'Random said:
'moleculo said:
'Random said:
'moleculo said:
...shouldn't you also account for teams that lost to poor teams? Cardinals (20) beat NE. 49ers lost to Vikings (15) and Rams (14). Broncos, mean while, haven't lost to a team worse than 5th on this list.
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Well, in a way I do. If the 49ers had beaten the Vikes and Rams they would be a clear #1. The Broncos had 3 chances to earn some real points and didn't do it. Had they beaten any one of the 3 it would have them at #6. I don't see how they can move up because they lost to good teams. :confused:
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the same way the pats or 49ers don't move down by losing to bad teams.
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As I stated above, the 49ers are #2 because they didn't beat those 2 bad teams. Had they won either game they would be #1. The Pats would be further ahead if they had beat any of the teams they lost to. So they do lose points by losing. Still :confused:
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I agree with moleculo. You weight wins based on the quality of the opponent, but give all losses a weight of zero which is internally inconsistent.Your argument doesn't really even touch that issue. What you're saying is the same as me saying all wins should receive equal weight, because they gain points by winning so that should be enough.Take a simple example to illustrate the inconsistency. Take two hypothetical teams with identical opponents and win-loss results for 15 games, but the 16th game one team plays the Patriots while the other team plays the Chiefs.If both teams win their 16th game, your system says the team who beat the Patriots is the better team. If both teams lose their 16th game, your system says the teams are identically ranked. Moleculo, and I, are saying that losing to the Chiefs should hurt you more than losing to the Patriots should. But your system considers a loss to one of the best teams as being equally significant in ranking as a loss to one of the worst teams. But it considers wins against the same teams to be different in significance. That just isn't internally consistent.
 
Ok, I built in a point value for losses (using the same methodology as for wins) and got the following (does not include this weeks results):

Code: 
1	Texans2	49ers3	Patriots4	Falcons5	Broncos6	Packers7	Ravens8	Seahawks9	Bears10	Colts11	Giants12	Redskins13	Rams14	Cowboys15	Vikings16	Jets17	Steelers18	Bengals19	Dolphins20	Buccaneers21	Saints22	Bills23	Cardinals24	Lions25	Titans26	Browns27	Chargers28	Panthers29	Eagles30	Raiders31	Jaguars32	Chiefs
 
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'Random said:
I went 11-4 so far. How did you guys do?

Code: 
Random  Mole  Butch  Random2NY Jets		Tennessee		Cincinnati	34	W     W     W     WPhiladelphia	13	Indianapolis	17	W     W     W     WHouston	        29Denver	        34	L     W     W     WBaltimore       17Jacksonville	3	W     W     W     WMiami	        24Washington	38	W     W     W     WCleveland	21	Minnesota	36	L     W     L     LSt. Louis	22	Tampa Bay	0	W     L     W     LNew Orleans	41	NY Giants	0	W     L     L     WAtlanta	        34	Green Bay	21	W     L     W     WChicago 	13	Seattle	        50	W     W     W     WBuffalo	        17	Carolina	31	W     L     L     LSan Diego	7	Detroit	        10	W     L     L     WArizona	        38	Kansas City	0	W     W     W     WOakland	        15	Pittsburgh	24	L     W     W     WDallas	        27	 San Francisco	41	L     L     L     WNew England	34                       11-4  9-6  10-5   12-3
Click to expand...
 
'Random said:
Ok, I built in a point value for losses (using the same methodology as for wins) and got the following (does not include this weeks results):

Code: 
1	Texans2	49ers3	Patriots4	Falcons5	Broncos6	Packers7	Ravens8	Seahawks9	Bears10	Colts11	Giants12	Redskins13	Rams14	Cowboys15	Vikings16	Jets17	Steelers18	Bengals19	Dolphins20	Buccaneers21	Saints22	Bills23	Cardinals24	Lions25	Titans26	Browns27	Chargers28	Panthers29	Eagles30	Raiders31	Jaguars32	Chiefs
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:thumbup: When accounting for quality of losses, Broncos jumped 6 spots. Texans jumped 2 spots - interesting, because I think they are't as good as the Pats, but I suppose that loss to the Cardinals by NE is really hurting them here. Seahawks, giants, Giants and Panthers all drop a few spots, and the Eagles drop a lot. I like this a lot better.If you wanted to hone it a bit more, you could add in some sort of weighting scheme such that early season wins/losses are less impactful than more recent ones, but that's academic at this point.
 
I'm glad you like it better. But the question is, is it more accurate based on the following weeks games? Obviously it was one game better this week. When I get some time, I might back test this a few seasons.

 
'Random said:
I'm glad you like it better. But the question is, is it more accurate based on the following weeks games? Obviously it was one game better this week. When I get some time, I might back test this a few seasons.
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one thing that I noticed - most of the games that your model missed, the teams were really close: Min/StL: 15/13. TB/NO: 20/21. Car/SD: 28/27. That's pretty damn good. Don't sweat it if the model misses by this much; assume any teams within a few ranking spots to be a toss-up.
 
'moleculo said:
'Random said:
I'm glad you like it better. But the question is, is it more accurate based on the following weeks games? Obviously it was one game better this week. When I get some time, I might back test this a few seasons.
Click to expand...
one thing that I noticed - most of the games that your model missed, the teams were really close: Min/StL: 15/13. TB/NO: 20/21. Car/SD: 28/27. That's pretty damn good. Don't sweat it if the model misses by this much; assume any teams within a few ranking spots to be a toss-up.
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I think all of our rankings were like this. It gets to the point where, unless your rankings are totally out of whack, the only time you're really wrong is if there's an upset.
 
Updated rankings.

So yeah, New England is still #1, but the gap between them and the number 2 team shrunk by 20 percentage points. They are still ahead of the number 2 team mainly because they are outscoring opponents by almost 10 points/game and have the leagues best turnover ratio by far, all with the most difficult schedule so far.

Also of note, Seattle cracking the top 5 and the Giants deservedly dropping out of the top 10.

Looking at the game of the week SF/SEA, my rankings would predict a Niner win, but these rankings dont factor HFA, so using these to predict matchups is not very accurate. I would definitely think Seattle's HFA would make up the 3% points between the two teams.

Code: 
Rank	Team            	Change	Power %1	New England Patriots	0	100.00%2	Denver Broncos  	0	95.89%3	Houston Texans  	0	93.98%4	San Francisco 49ers	0	90.40%5	Seattle Seahawks	3	86.95%6	Green Bay Packers	-1	85.88%7	Atlanta Falcons 	4	84.06%8	Washington Redskins	-1	81.73%9	Chicago Bears   	0	70.21%10	New Orleans Saints	9	69.08%11	New York Giants 	-5	67.40%12	Dallas Cowboys  	0	64.54%13	Baltimore Ravens	-3	64.26%14	Minnesota Vikings	0	60.98%15	Cincinnati Bengals	1	60.47%16	Carolina Panthers	7	53.51%17	Arizona Cardinals	10	46.96%18	St. Louis Rams  	-5	46.19%19	Miami Dolphins  	6	44.73%20	Indianapolis Colts	-3	43.15%21	Pittsburgh Steelers	1	43.04%22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-2	41.99%23	Cleveland Browns	-8	40.83%24	San Diego Chargers	-3	39.82%25	Tennessee Titans	4	38.62%26	New York Jets   	-8	38.62%27	Detroit Lions   	-1	28.88%28	Buffalo Bills   	-4	28.67%29	Oakland Raiders 	2	26.35%30	Philadelphia Eagles	-2	19.41%31	Jacksonville Jaguars	-1	14.56%32	Kansas City Chiefs	0	0.00%
 
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