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footballman_696969

FFPC Mock Draft #2

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I created another mock draft on antsports.com. You will have 8 hours to make each selection. Ignore the scoring system and line up requirements on the league page. We will be using FFPC rules.


***I CAN NOT STRESS THIS ENOUGH***Please do not sign up if you don't think you will be able to make your draft selections. You can make a pre-draft list if you feel you are going to be away from the computer for 8+ hours. Do not miss a pick and waste the time of 11 other people.

The starting lineups will consists of: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex Players (RB, WR or TE), 1 PK. 1 TeamDefense/Special Team

Passing:
20 yards passing = 1 point (Divide total yards by 20. Example: 275 passing yards = 13.75 fantasy points)
Passing TD = 4 points
Interception thrown = Minus one point (-1).
2-point conversion = 2 points

Rushing:
10 yards rushing = 1 point (Divide total yards by 10. Example 126 rushing yards= 12.6 fantasy points)
Rushing TD = 6 points
2-point conversion = 2 points

Receiving:
10 yards rushing = 1 point (Divide total yards by 10. Example: 93 receiving yards = 9.3 fantasy points)
Receiving TD = 6 points
1 point per Reception for RB, WR, QB, K
1.5 points per Reception for TEs
2-point conversion = 2 points

You can signup @ http://www.antsports...private_drafts/
The password to join is joebryant
The league is called FBG FFPC Mock Draft #2

The league ID is 5367

We can use this thread to analyse draft picks and draft strategies.

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In and if you are joining, please be active (as we had an issue round 1 in the other draft).

Additionally, please make sure to post your analysis and thinking. Mocks are all fine and good, but hearing YOUR rationale on the picks you make really helps make the mock more interesting and educational for those of us debating about players in certain rounds. I certainly appreciate that and will try to do my best in giving you guys my thoughts. I hope you all can do the same.

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I'm in

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I am in

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1.01 Adrian Peterson

I am not all that excited about landing 1.01 as VBD almost forces you into AP and I am not sure if he is going to be able to come close to that 2012 campaign. His YPC was 6.0 and the 2 prior years were both under 4.7. YPC doesn't have that much consistency year to year. He also doesn't catch passes and with 2,300 yards he only had 13 TDs. All good problems to have, but if this was for real there is about a 40% chance I am choosing from Calvin/Graham/Martin and a 60% chance I admit experts know more than me and take AP.

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1.04 Arian Foster

Foster was solid last year. Between him and AP they are some of the most consistent RBs in the business and will score double digit TDs and 1000 yds each season. In looking at the first three picks, I was rather shocked to be able to draft Foster here. My initial thoughts are that I would be going Charles or Calvin at this spot, but I am quite happy to land Foster. This was a no brainer pick with him still available.

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1.03 Doug Martin

I'm probably one of a rare breed that doesn't have Adrian Peterson at #1. I may be insane, but I have Doug Martin on top of all of my boards. In fact, my PPR ranking is 1.01 Martin, 1.02 Charles, 1.03 Peterson, as I think these are the top combination floor/ceiling running backs in fantasy football, with a dropoff in either ceiling or floor (or both) afterwards (my other options at 1.03: Foster - Y/C trend / injury risk / Tate stealing touches; Spiller - usage, hasn't proven he can be a 16 week feature back). Of course I'm ecstatic if I get any of the 3 to start off my draft.

Speaking of Martin in particular - after a slow start to his career, his post-bye-week efforts drove him to be in the conversation of top rookie running back seasons in history, and 2013 is only looking to be better, with two good run-blocking guards getting healthy. He's strong enough to run up the middle and break tackles at the second level, but has excellent lateral agility to get around the edges, with enough long speed to give him occasional highlight-reel weeks. Protecting his downside, he has no competition for carries, and RBs with a healthy dose of receiving tend to have more consistent year-to-year seasons than pure runners. For strength of schedule watchers, Tampa Bay has the 3rd easiest RB schedule based on 2012 stats (7th easiest excluding New Orleans in week 17, 8th easiest through week 13).

Clearly the easiest pick I'll have in every draft I have a chance, and I'll attempt to trade for him in every draft where I can't.

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Lhucks is up right now and I predrafted, please email me if it doesn't go through

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1.08 deadlyrange0321 Spiller, C.J. RB BUF 6/12/2013 11:16:00 PM

1.09 httv14 Richardson, Trent RB CLE 6/12/2013 11:27:00 PM a>a>

1.10 FM69 McCoy, LeSean RB PHI 6/12/2013 11:44:00 PM a>a>

1.11 Lemmings Green, AJ WR CIN 6/12/2013 11:44:00 PM a>

a>1.12 Wild Thing2 On the clock. a>a>a>

2.01 Wild Thing2 On Deck. a>a>

2.02 Lemmings Predrafted

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1.06 - Jimmy Graham

Pretty easy choice, since Charles or Martin didn't fall to me and tight ends get 1.5 PPR. If he was gone I would have taken Calvin.

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1.09 - Trent Richardson

Obviously injuries are a concern, but if he can stay somewhat healthy, I think he can put up big numbers in the new offense and he will be on the field for every down.

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1.12 Wild Thing2 Lynch, Marshawn RB SEA 6/12/2013 11:54:00 PM

2.01 Wild Thing2 Morris, Alfred RB WAS 6/12/2013 11:56:00 PM

2.02 Lemmings Bryant, Dez WR DAL 6/12/2013 11:56:00 PM

2.03 FM69 Johnson, Chris RB TEN 6/12/2013 11:56:00 PM

2.04 httv14 Forte, Matt RB CHI 6/13/2013 12:02:00 AM

2.05 deadlyrange0321 On the clock.

2.06 Crunch this On Deck.

2.07 Msudaisy26 In the hole.

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1.09 - Trent Richardson

Obviously injuries are a concern, but if he can stay somewhat healthy, I think he can put up big numbers in the new offense and he will be on the field for every down.

1.09 - Trent Richardson

Obviously injuries are a concern, but if he can stay somewhat healthy, I think he can put up big numbers in the new offense and he will be on the field for every down.

I would have snagged him right there too.

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1.11 AJ Green

2.02 Dez Bryant

As of this point in the season I've got AJG ranked WR#2 and Dez ranked WR#3 so I'm perfectly happy loading up my WR ranks with those two to start my draft from the 11 spot. The RB choices at this point (Forte, CJ?K, Morris, Lynch) all have too many question marks and I've found I have more success in this format when I have high floor/high ceiling WRs if drafting from a later slot.

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For strength of schedule watchers, Tampa Bay has the 3rd easiest RB schedule based on 2012 stats (7th easiest excluding New Orleans in week 17, 8th easiest through week 13).

This is great stuff, is there a source you use for that information or your own personal calculations?

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For strength of schedule watchers, Tampa Bay has the 3rd easiest RB schedule based on 2012 stats (7th easiest excluding New Orleans in week 17, 8th easiest through week 13).

This is great stuff, is there a source you use for that information or your own personal calculations?

This is based on fftoolbox.com, though I'll have my own calculations when footballoutsiders releases its 2013 predictions.

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2.08 LHUCKS Marshall, Brandon

2.09 Saint 2 Thomas, Demaryius

2.10 LususV On the clock.

2.11 ODT1 On Deck.

2.12 Dawg Pound 2 In the hole.

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2.10 Reggie Bush

3.03 David Wilson

It's a huge gamble to go RB/RB/RB in a PPR, but the only WR I considered over Reggie Bush was Larry Fitzgerald. After Calvin/Dez/Green/Julio/Marshall/Thomas were gone before 2.10, the next tier of WR (Johnson/Fitzgerald/White/Cobb/Cruz/VJax) all had enough question marks that I took (what I regard to be) surer things (in a PPR; I wouldn't dream of Reggie Bush before the 4th in a non-PPR). Gronkowski is a huge gamble that can pay off huge, but when you're playing for weeks 1-13, you can't gamble on losing up to 6 weeks of production even on an elite talent.

[will edit later with write-ups on these two backs in particular]

1.03: Doug Martin

2.10: Reggie Bush

3.03: David Wilson

QB:

RB: Doug Martin, Reggie Bush, David Wilson

WR:

TE:

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2.12 Aaron Hernandez

3.01 Larry Fitzgerald

Given the drop off in elite TEs, I wanted to nab one here. Gronk/Hernandez/Witten. Gronk if healthy wouldn't even last to this slot so this obviously assumes camp reports are that Gronk could miss significant time. So it comes down to Hernandez vs. Witten. Hernandez should be on the right side of the age curve, i.e. improving while Witten is theoretically in decline. Witten is the more consistent bet, but I think he lacks the upside of Hernandez. They both had a median of 8 targets per game last year when excluding week 2 for Hernandez. The Cowboys, were constantly playing catch up. The Patriots however were constantly playing with a lead. Looking at Chase Stuart's game script data, Patriots were #1 in the average amount they were leading by during a game 7.7 points. The cowboys were #25 at -3.3, I believe. The Patriots pass that much because they want to; the Cowboys pass that much because they had to.

On Fitz, I think he is the last of the slam dunk every week WRs. Which is odd to say given his performance last year. I am banking on what Arians did for Wayne and camp reports indicate they are moving Fitz around in a similar manner to get him more routes out of the slot.

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That is a tough way to go especially being closer to the turn. As fast as the RB's are going in this draft, it might turn out to be a smart move. Your money rounds are coming up.

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2.12 Aaron Hernandez

3.01 Larry Fitzgerald

Given the drop off in elite TEs, I wanted to nab one here. Gronk/Hernandez/Witten. Gronk if healthy wouldn't even last to this slot so this obviously assumes camp reports are that Gronk could miss significant time. So it comes down to Hernandez vs. Witten. Hernandez should be on the right side of the age curve, i.e. improving while Witten is theoretically in decline. Witten is the more consistent bet, but I think he lacks the upside of Hernandez. They both had a median of 8 targets per game last year when excluding week 2 for Hernandez. The Cowboys, were constantly playing catch up. The Patriots however were constantly playing with a lead. Looking at Chase Stuart's game script data, Patriots were #1 in the average amount they were leading by during a game 7.7 points. The cowboys were #25 at -3.3, I believe. The Patriots pass that much because they want to; the Cowboys pass that much because they had to.

On Fitz, I think he is the last of the slam dunk every week WRs. Which is odd to say given his performance last year. I am banking on what Arians did for Wayne and camp reports indicate they are moving Fitz around in a similar manner to get him more routes out of the slot.

I would have gladly grabbed Fitz if you would have passed on him.

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2.12 Aaron Hernandez

3.01 Larry Fitzgerald

Given the drop off in elite TEs, I wanted to nab one here. Gronk/Hernandez/Witten. Gronk if healthy wouldn't even last to this slot so this obviously assumes camp reports are that Gronk could miss significant time. So it comes down to Hernandez vs. Witten. Hernandez should be on the right side of the age curve, i.e. improving while Witten is theoretically in decline. Witten is the more consistent bet, but I think he lacks the upside of Hernandez. They both had a median of 8 targets per game last year when excluding week 2 for Hernandez. The Cowboys, were constantly playing catch up. The Patriots however were constantly playing with a lead. Looking at Chase Stuart's game script data, Patriots were #1 in the average amount they were leading by during a game 7.7 points. The cowboys were #25 at -3.3, I believe. The Patriots pass that much because they want to; the Cowboys pass that much because they had to.

On Fitz, I think he is the last of the slam dunk every week WRs. Which is odd to say given his performance last year. I am banking on what Arians did for Wayne and camp reports indicate they are moving Fitz around in a similar manner to get him more routes out of the slot.

I would have gladly grabbed Fitz if you would have passed on him.

I strongly considered him over Reggie Bush, but I definitely would have taken David Wilson at round 3.

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2.12 Aaron Hernandez

3.01 Larry Fitzgerald

Given the drop off in elite TEs, I wanted to nab one here. Gronk/Hernandez/Witten. Gronk if healthy wouldn't even last to this slot so this obviously assumes camp reports are that Gronk could miss significant time. So it comes down to Hernandez vs. Witten. Hernandez should be on the right side of the age curve, i.e. improving while Witten is theoretically in decline. Witten is the more consistent bet, but I think he lacks the upside of Hernandez. They both had a median of 8 targets per game last year when excluding week 2 for Hernandez. The Cowboys, were constantly playing catch up. The Patriots however were constantly playing with a lead. Looking at Chase Stuart's game script data, Patriots were #1 in the average amount they were leading by during a game 7.7 points. The cowboys were #25 at -3.3, I believe. The Patriots pass that much because they want to; the Cowboys pass that much because they had to.

On Fitz, I think he is the last of the slam dunk every week WRs. Which is odd to say given his performance last year. I am banking on what Arians did for Wayne and camp reports indicate they are moving Fitz around in a similar manner to get him more routes out of the slot.

I would have gladly grabbed Fitz if you would have passed on him.

I strongly considered him over Reggie Bush, but I definitely would have taken David Wilson at round 3.

I was hoping Marshall or Bush would fall to me. I can't believe I was hoping Bush would fall to me at the end of the 2nd?? Tough draft already!

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Took Steven Jackson at 2.07, wanted Forte or Johnson to fall to me but no luck with that. Had Jackson been gone I would have taken Marshall or Jones, I predrafted those 3 players with 2.05 on the clock.

3.06 took Cobb, was hoping for Harvin, or Fitzgerald, and would have considered Bush at this spot but they were all gone. With Jennings leaving for the Vikings I think it gives Cobb a great chance to catch 90+ passes in that offense.

So far I have Graham, Jackson and Cobb

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After 4 rnds, I have Lynch, Morris, Miller and Witten. Both Lynch and Morris will be the #1 RBs for their teams, so I'm expecting some good solid numbers from them, week in and week out. Witten is VERY consistent, when it comes to points. Consistently HIGH, so I'm really happy with my TE. I feel that Miller is going to be a stud for 2013. If I can get him in the 3rd rnd, I will happily take him there. Very happy with this 4.

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3.11 - Darren McFadden

4.02 - Aaron Rodgers

I was hoping to grab Cobb at 3.11 as I have him finishing in the top 10 this year. I really do believe GB is going to feature him and in a PPR format he could be gold in round 3. I wouldn't at all be shocked to see him flirt with 100 catches, 1300 yards and 10 tds. But, alas....

Cobb was the last of my "Tier 1" WRs so I looked at RBs. I went with McFadden for a couple reasons....first, Oakland has ditched the zone blocking scheme. Combine that with their awful QB situation and I see a lot of handoffs and check downs. I don't see McFadden scoring a ton of TDs but I could very easily see him reeling in 50+ passes so I like him in PPR. Of course, his injury history is scary but in the 3rd round it's a risk I'm willing to take.

I had hoped Lamar Miller would slip through to 4.02 but he didn't....and I didn't see any other RBs I had to have there....and the WR depth at this point will still be there in a couple rounds....and the top TEs I'd want here (Gronk, Hernandez, Witten) are gone.....but hey, lookie here! A QB who was going in Rd 1 last year and is still likely to be Top 3 (if not #1) this year was still available. Couldn't pass on Rodgers here knowing how long I'd be waiting for my next shot at a solid QB.

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4.07 I really wanted Gore here as my second back but he went at 4.05. I went with Bowe because he has had one year of good quarterback play in his career in that year he led the league in touchdowns. The combo of Reid's offense, the upgrade to Smith and lack of other wide receiving options and he could put up career highs in catches and yards with double digit td's

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I think that's the longest I've ever seen it take for the first QB to go off the board.

I know, right? I'm not sure why but most mocks I've been in thus far have the top QBs going between 1 and 3 rounds later than they did last year.

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I think that's the longest I've ever seen it take for the first QB to go off the board.

I know, right? I'm not sure why but most mocks I've been in thus far have the top QBs going between 1 and 3 rounds later than they did last year.

Just look at the RB scarcity. There's so many real-life RBBCs and unproven rookie/2nd year RBs, that it's a huge risk to wait for your RB2.

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My team so far:

RB: CJ Spiller

RB: Frank Gore

WR: Julio Jones

TE: Rob Gronkowski

Having to start 2RBs, and with 1.5 PPR for TE, I feel like my team is really strong so far. I'm not as strongly concerned about Gronk's injury as most and feel he'll be a HUGE factor in this format and a steal in 3rd round.

With only 4pts per passing TD, I can afford to wait on QB.

Needing to start 2RBs, I feel it was important to have 2 in the first 4 rounds. Couldn't believe Gore was available in 4th round. Definitely more value at WR in later rounds than RB so nabbing Gore was important.

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I think that's the longest I've ever seen it take for the first QB to go off the board.

I know, right? I'm not sure why but most mocks I've been in thus far have the top QBs going between 1 and 3 rounds later than they did last year.

Yes. I had an idea that would be the trend this year. I want to wait, but it's hard when there's great ones still around this late.

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4.06 Crunch this Brees, Drew QB NOS

4.07 Msudaisy26 Bowe, Dwayne WR KCC

4.08 LHUCKS Ball, Montee RB DEN

4.09 Saint 2 Mathews, Ryan RB SD

4.10 LususV Manning, Peyton QB Den

4.11 ODT1 Welker, Wes WR Den

4.12 Dawg Pound 2 Colston, Marques WR NOS

5.01 Dawg Pound 2 Nelson, Jordy WR GBP

5.02 ODT1 On the clock.

5.03 LususV On Deck.

5.04 Saint 2 In the hole.

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I think that's the longest I've ever seen it take for the first QB to go off the board.

I know, right? I'm not sure why but most mocks I've been in thus far have the top QBs going between 1 and 3 rounds later than they did last year.

Yes. I had an idea that would be the trend this year. I want to wait, but it's hard when there's great ones still around this late.

I almost always wait, but if I can get Peyton Manning at 4.10, I'll do that every single time. EASY schedule this year.

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I think that's the longest I've ever seen it take for the first QB to go off the board.

I know, right? I'm not sure why but most mocks I've been in thus far have the top QBs going between 1 and 3 rounds later than they did last year.

Yes. I had an idea that would be the trend this year. I want to wait, but it's hard when there's great ones still around this late.

I almost always wait, but if I can get Peyton Manning at 4.10, I'll do that every single time. EASY schedule this year.

It's a good thing you did, or he would have been gone!

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4.10 Peyton Manning

5.03 Danny Amendola

1) I almost never take QBs in the top 10, but I love Peyton's schedule this year, and getting an elite option at the back end of the 4th is an absolute bargain.

2) Not an ideal situation, but this is my penalty for passing on Fitzgerald to take Bush at 2.10. I'd feel more comfortable with my roster if I could make that 1 for 1 swap. As is, a roster like this will need to hit on several upside flyers at WR to survive the season.

1.03: Doug Martin

2.10: Reggie Bush

3.03: David Wilson

4.10: Peyton Manning

5.03: Danny Amendola

QB: Peyton Manning

RB: Doug Martin, Reggie Bush, David Wilson

WR: Danny Amendola

TE:

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2.09 Demaryius Thomas

Didn't really like the RB prospects at the round 2 value here. I felt that DT was a solid WR pick in a high octane offense. Having DT and Foster as my first two picks are a pretty solid base. My strategy will be to pick up RB2 in the next round. I was really hoping Marshall was going to fall, but Lhucks snapped him up one spot in front of me. Outside of Marshall, I felt DT had the best upside. I really am not sure on Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson was hit or miss on TDs, so I think DT provided the best pick at this spot.

1.04 Arian Foster

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3.04 Maurice Jones-Drew

RBs go fast in this format and I wanted a solid RB2. In 2011, MJD had 343 carries, 43 receptions and almost 2000 rush/receiving yards to go with 11 TDs. With his injury in 2012, he only played in 6 games and was a bust for many owners. He had the same terrible QB situation in 2011 that he will in 2013. In looking at his opportunities, he should still be the lead back for JAC and should have over 1000 yds easily again this season.

I considered looking at a WR/TE here, but I felt if I missed on a RB here, it would hurt later. We'll see how this draft turns out.

1.04 Arian Foster

2.09 Demaryius Thomas

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4.09 Ryan Mathews

Looking at the end of the RB tier here, and Mathews was still on the board. Mathews has top 10 upside if he can stay on the field. There really was a TE here that I wanted, and I decided I would wait for QB till a little bit later.

1.04 Arian Foster

2.09 Demaryius Thomas

3.04 Maurice Jones-Drew

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5.04 LeVeon Bell

Bell was the fourth RB for my team and should be a solid player and fill for my RBs. Hands down my RB squad is the strongest in the league, but I have sacrificed strength at WR, TE, and QB. In considering my options, I felt that all of those positions still have depth available so by going strong at RB here allows me to focus on other positions when other teams are scrambling for supporting RBs.

1.04 Arian Foster

2.09 Demaryius Thomas

3.04 Maurice Jones-Drew

4.09 Ryan Mathews

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5.04 LeVeon Bell

Bell was the fourth RB for my team and should be a solid player and fill for my RBs. Hands down my RB squad is the strongest in the league, but I have sacrificed strength at WR, TE, and QB. In considering my options, I felt that all of those positions still have depth available so by going strong at RB here allows me to focus on other positions when other teams are scrambling for supporting RBs.

1.04 Arian Foster

2.09 Demaryius Thomas

3.04 Maurice Jones-Drew

4.09 Ryan Mathews

In hindsight, I'd rather have Fitzgerald+Bell than Bush+Amendola. I love Bell, and think he's very underrated. I think he definitely outperforms Ball.

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5.11 Eddie Lacy

6.02 Torrey Smith

I'm perfectly content with Eddie Lacy as my RB2 because at this point I'm not as worried as others about a possible timeshare in GB. I think the Packers plan to put Lacy to good use. He showed plenty of skill in the passing game (both in blitz pickup and receiving) at Alabama and, as long as he is healthy, should be utilized at the goal line. Remember, this is a team that used John Kuhn as a goal line back in 2010 and 2011 and he had 8 TDs between those two seasons. I see a healthy Lacy flirting with 1000-1100 yards rushing and 30-40 receptions to go along with 8-10 TDs as the lead back in the Packers high octane offense.

As for Torrey Smith I'm excited to have him as my WR3. In his third season in the league he is now the unequivocal #1 wideout in their offense and though he is viewed as primarily a deep threat I saw some promising glimpses of the full route tree from him last season. But this season instead of Boldin getting a chunk of targets he only has Jones to contend with. Last season Smith had a not-so-spectacular catch rate of 45% (49 receptions on 110 targets) but he was also primarily getting the deeper balls while Boldin took a lot of the underneath stuff. I see Smith getting a significant uptick in targets with more of them coming in the short to medium range. Even if he gets 10% more targets (say 125) and can up his catch rate to 55% (say 70 receptions) at 15 YPC (he has a career YPC of 17.1) that makes him a 1000 yard receiver with 8-10 TD potential. Sounds like a nice WR3 to complement AJ Green and Dez Bryant.

I'm definitely running some major risk/reward at RB so far and will need to load up on TEs in hopes of hitting one....but I'm pretty confident my QB and WR situations make me a contender thus far

QB - Aaron Rodgers

RB - DMac, Eddie Lacy

WR - AJ Green, Dez Bryant, Torrey Smith

TE -

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