GordonGekko said:
Any talk of him coming back by one season or even two at this point, I think is grossly and overly optimistic.
Whole post was great. On this point, there is no chance he plays at all. Ever, let alone 2 years. Even if he gets away with murder, the perception problem is insurmountable. He is dead to the NFL.
And he'll be in jail, anyway, so all this thread is useful for now is Sarnoff fishing and rookies biting on his bait.
I think the distinction some people in this thread are making is contention with the terms "never" or "ever". From a legal standpoint, that's probably not true.
I would say the practical demarcation is 30-31 years of age. With it being more likely at 30 years of age than not. If Hernandez is fully reinstated by the league by then, assuming he is cleared completely of the murder charges and serves his time for his gun offenses and NFL suspension, he might have a year or two in the tank.
"No chance" tends to infer a lifetime ban from the game. That issue runs a lot deeper and bloodier than Hernandez, that becomes an issue of labor rights and players rights to the union. The owners can push the players union far, yes, that's true, but there is only so much you can push them without cornering them into no choice but to fight to maintain the perception of their legitimacy. Without the perception of the union's legitimacy, the owners have no means of control.
Put it this way, the elders of a town hire a Sheriff. They handpick him out of many candidates. Every now and then, the Sheriff finds a malcontent to challenges the Sheriff's authority, so the Sheriff drags the malcontent on the back of horse out to the desert and beats him to a pulp. Now maybe the elders of the town aren't so happy that the Sheriff is such a mean ##### about things at times, but selecting him is an extension of their authority, and to usurp his decision making is to undermine their own selection. If they choose to belittle him and punish him too harshly in public, it lends to a bad perception of his authority, and now he is unable to carry out their wishes and their methodology of control.
The owners need the union to keep the players in line. To do that, they must recognize and empower the union to some degree. Not a ton, but enough to keep order. The union cannot keep order if the owners start a labor issue over a players right to earn in the league regarding suspensions. Again, it's not about Hernandez anymore, it's about the larger perception and labor issue in play. Too many people here talk about the league without actually considering basic league politics. It's not as simple as saying, "Screw you Hernandez, you never ever play again"
If Hernandez eats the murder beef, yes, a lifetime ban is likely and probable.
If Hernandez walks on the murder beef, but has to eat the gun charges, then no, a lifetime ban is not very likely and not very probable. Now most teams probably won't want the distraction and headache and blackball him anyway, but he will be able to apply for reinstatement, offer his appeal and have the union have no choice but to represent some of his interests.
It's tough to say in 5 years if Hernandez would be dead to the NFL if he beats the murder beef ( and he just might, anyone who is calling this a slam dunk for life case simply is as overly optimistic and those who say he will be starting for the Raiders next year) The Patriots passing offense is a very difficult one. It requires synching at, not just the technical level, but also on a creative level for all the variable options. For a very young player to perform at Hernandez's level requires a very high football IQ. He might be dumb as rocks about being a criminal mastermind, but the kid can seriously ball. Strictly as a receiver, he has very good technique, good footwork, a nice ability to use his body in space. There are many elements to Hernandez strictly as a player that are valuable even with eroded athleticism. But again, he will be for a long time without NFL training and world class medical care and nutrition. And while he's stagnant, he's also accumulating zero to no tread on his body for the duration. He will be older if he gets out but he won't have the same attrition as a comparable NFL player at his age.
1 to 2 years = A very reactionary response, with almost no regard for understanding league politics, the legal system or PR at any level.
Never ever and forever wrapped in a corn tortilla = A very reactionary response, at this point.
Let's wait and let the process unfold and then we can see if he has any semblance of an NFL career left.