ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021) (4 Viewers)

Christian Kirk seems low to me. He had a solid rookie season, while learning to play on the outside. There seems to be an assumption that Arizona investing picks on multiple WRs was a comment on Kirk, but I don’t personally subscribe to that. They want 4x WRs on the field and need the bodies to do that. 

I like where you have Mike Williams and Tyler Boyd. Williams flashed some serious ability, has the pedigree, and is likely to see a lot more targets. Boyd looked like a skinnier Keenan Allen last season. 

My gut tells me that you’re low on Robert Foster. I was a Keelan Cole guy, too; so maybe I’m falling for the same trap here.

Mr. Irrelevant said:

Pettis seems most egregiously undervalued to me. Potential star talent, good QB, great situation. And not to quote myself, but …

Click to expand...

100% agree, particularly in things like auction leagues.

Mr. Irrelevant said:

Boyd seems really high for a guy who hasn’t proven he can be a (real-life or fantasy) WR1 three seasons in and whose QB situation is likely to be in flux short-term. Is this something of a Zac Taylor halo effect? 

Click to expand...

I don’t see anyone ranked behind him who has proven capable of being a WR1, who isn’t also much older (save Hill). While Boyd wasn’t a WR1 last season, his PPG would have been good for WR1 numbers the previous two seasons (as far back as I checked.) And, unlike like Golladay, he produced as the top option while Green was out. 

Edit: Not that you asked me.

Boyd had 76/1028/7 last year in 14 games, on pace for 87/1175/8, with 9.52 yards per target.

He played 8 games with both Dalton & Green playing, 2 games with Dalton and no Green, and 4 games with Driskel as the main QB and (at least mostly) no Green. In each of those 3 setups, he averaged at least 68 yards per game and 9 yards per target.

This was just his 3rd season. He is at least a year younger than any of Golladay, Kupp, or Woods.

He had the 12th best PFF grade among WRs.

Tyreek & Baldwin: I'm not all that confident on either of their rankings. I'd put more thought & reading into it before making a deal for either of them.

Kirk, Pettis, Foster: Most of tier 6 is young guys who are pretty tightly bunched together in terms of value. There are a lot of them, so slight changes in opinion can cause pretty large changes in ranking. I would not be surprised if this tier looked pretty different later this offseason.

My dynasty is starting to get active for '19.

This is the 1st thread I hit in SP, this year.

Thnx as usual, and nice work, ZWK.

Glad to see someone else with DJ Moore high. He has the potential to be a breakout star this year.

I think he's a much more valuable dynasty asset than Ridley despite some surface similarities.

ZWK said:

Post-draft TE rankings. PPR, start 3, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/19. Prev from 3/11/19.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    George Kittle    SF    25.9    (1)
1    2    Travis Kelce    KC    29.9    (2)
1    3    O.J. Howard    TB    24.8    (3)
1    4    Zach Ertz    PHI    28.8    (4)
2    5    Evan Engram    NYG    25.0    (5)
3    6    T.J. Hockenson    DET    22.2    rook
3    7    Hunter Henry    LAC    24.7    (6)
3    8    Noah Fant    DEN    21.8    rook
4    9    David Njoku    CLE    23.1    (7)
4    10    Eric Ebron    IND    26.4    (8)
5    11    Mark Andrews    BAL    23.0    (10)
5    12    Dallas Goedert    PHI    25.7    (11)
5    13    Irv Smith    MIN    21.1    rook
5    14    Chris Herndon    NYJ    23.5    (12)
5    15    Hayden Hurst    BAL    26.0    (13)
5    16    Jared Cook    NO    32.4    (18)
5    17    Trey Burton    CHI    27.8    (14)
5    18    Gerald Everett    RAM    25.2    (15)
5    19    Austin Hooper    ATL    24.8    (16)
5    20    Jace Sternberger    GB    23.2    rook
5    21    Mike Gesicki    MIA    23.9    (17)
5    22    Ian Thomas    CAR    23.2    (23)
5    23    Vance McDonald    PIT    29.2    (24)
5    24    Jordan Reed    WAS    29.2    (19)
6    25    Drew Sample    CIN    23.4    rook
6    26    Jack Doyle    IND    29.3    (20)
6    27    Kyle Rudolph    MIN    29.8    (21)
6    28    Will Dissly    SEA    23.1    (22)
6    29    Delanie Walker    TEN    35.1    (27)
6    30    Josh Oliver    JAX    22.4    rook
6    31    Adam Shaheen    CHI    25.9    (25)
6    32    Kahale Warring    HOU    22.4    rook
6    33    Greg Olsen    CAR    34.5    (28)
6    34    Tyler Eifert    CIN    29.0    (30)
6    35    Jimmy Graham    GB    32.8    (29)
6    36    Dawson Knox    BUF    22.8    rook
6    37    Jordan Akins    HOU    27.4    (26)
7    38    Austin Seferian-Jenkins    NE    26.9    (39)
7    39    Jason Witten    DAL    37.3    (40)
7    40    Foster Moreau    OAK    22.3    rook
7    41    Blake Jarwin    DAL    25.1    (31)
7    42    Jonnu Smith    TEN    24.0    (32)
7    43    Jordan Thomas    HOU    23.1    (33)
7    44    Tyler Kroft    BUF    26.9    (36)
7    45    Cameron Brate    TB    28.2    (38)
7    46    Tyler Higbee    RAM    26.7    (48)
7    47    Trevon Wesco    NYJ    24.0    rook
7    48    Zach Gentry    PIT    23.0    rook
8    49    Stephen Anderson    NE    26.6    unr
8    50    Jesse James    DET    25.2    (35)
8    51    C.J. Uzomah    CIN    26.6    (34)
8    52    Darren Waller    OAK    27.0    unr
8    53    Mo Alie-Cox    IND    25.9    (37)
8    54    Ricky Seals-Jones    ARI    24.5    (41)
8    55    Alize Mack    NOR    22.4    rook
8    56    Caleb Wilson    ARI    23.1    rook
8    57    Anthony Firkser    TEN    24.5    (44)
8    58    Charles Clay    ARI    30.5    (42)
8    59    Maxx Williams        25.4    (45)
8    60    Nick Vannett    SEA    26.5    (47)
8    61    Dalton Schultz    DAL    23.1    (49)
8    62    Ed Dickson    SEA    32.1    (52)
8    63    Kaden Smith    SF    22.4    rook
8    64    Jake Butt    DEN    24.1    (43)
8    65    Jeff Heuerman    DEN    26.8    (46)
8    66    Tyler Conklin    MIN    24.1    (54)
8    67    Dan Arnold    NO    24.5    (51)

Most of the changes since last time are just slotting in the rookies. I had more to say about the rookies in the other thread, more pre-draft and a little post-draft.

Click to expand...

Just a heads up but Goedert's age is 24.5

skinfanjon said:

Just a heads up but Goedert's age is 24.5

Click to expand...

Thanks! I had him down as 1/3/94 instead of 1/3/95, not sure where that error slipped in.

ZWK said:

Just Win Baby said:

ZWK said:

Watkins is signed long-term to the best passing offense in the NFL, and it looks like he's their top WR now. I moved him down a bunch at the end of the season, since his foot injury seems to be chronic and his performance again did not live up to what he flashed in 2015, but with Hill gone he has top 5 upside.

Click to expand...

It seems fair to point out that for as long as you have been posting your rankings, you have been overly high on Watkins. Couldn't that still be the case? 

Click to expand...

It's a possibility, but I also don't want to underrate Watkins now just because I overrated his talent in the past. He is currently ranked as WR19 in FBG redraft PPR rankings, so my take doesn't seem too far out of line.

Click to expand...

To say a little bit more about this: I was trying to trade Watkins for the first couple months of this offseason. In all the leagues where I own him, I had put him in my trade bait and was sending out feelers & offers. He had fallen enough in my eyes, with the foot injury recurring and the production not increasing despite playing in the best offense in the league, that I was looking to move on.

Then when the Tyreek news first came out I pulled all my offers involving Watkins because I realized that I might be sitting on the top WR in the league's best passing offense. Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, Sammie Coates, Byron Pringle, Marcus Kemp, Gehrig Dieter, Josh Crockett, Davon Grayson. Those are the WRs on their roster right now. Someone is going to produce, unless Mahomes takes a nose dive.

I still have Sammy on one team, but he is brittle and a chronic underachiever. A very maddening player to own.

WR25 doesn't seem too crazy since if you miss on him as your WR3 in a draft or trade it shouldn't kill you, but from a tier standpoint I'm not sure he belongs with some of those other guys in tier 4. People like Hilton, Green, and AB are old, but so much better and more reliable. You'd almost take the promise of 1-2 more solid seasons over whatever Sammy is going to give you, because him being 25-26 is hardly going to matter if he keeps churning out useless 500 yard seasons. And then on the younger end you might prefer the unknown upside of Moore, Williams, and Davis over the proven frustration of Sammy. I'd take Allen Robinson ahead of him and maybe Deebo.

The Chiefs are going to be interesting this year because nobody on their team can do for them what Hill did. I'm massively invested in Mahomes and I'd love him to have another monster year, but I expect short-term regression because he lost a special weapon and none of these other guys are special. Even Watkins at his peak is not the player Hill was last season. I still like Watkins as a bounce-back candidate and he's fully capable of a 1200+ yard season, but it's Watkins and I've learned to treat him as a roster luxury rather than a player to rely on. I feel like the rest of KC's WRs are just warm bodies.

Post-draft QB rankings. Assuming 12 QBs starting each week and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/19. Prev from 3/13/19.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Patrick Mahomes    KC    24.0    (1)
2    2    Deshaun Watson    HOU    24.0    (2)
2    3    Baker Mayfield    CLE    24.4    (4)
2    4    Andrew Luck    IND    30.0    (3)
3    5    Kyler Murray    ARI    22.1    rook
3    6    Carson Wentz    PHI    26.7    (5)
3    7    Jared Goff    RAM    24.9    (6)
3    8    Aaron Rodgers    GB    35.7    (7)
3    9    Russell Wilson    SEA    30.8    (8)
3    10    Cam Newton    CAR    30.3    (9)
3    11    Mitchell Trubisky    CHI    25.0    (10)
3    12    Matt Ryan    ATL    34.3    (11)
3    13    Jameis Winston    TB    25.7    (12)
3    14    Lamar Jackson    BAL    22.6    (13)
3    15    Sam Darnold    NYJ    22.2    (16)
3    16    Drew Brees    NO    40.6    (14)
3    17    Jimmy Garoppolo    SF    27.8    (15)
3    18    Dak Prescott    DAL    26.1    (17)
3    19    Josh Allen    BUF    23.3    (18)
4    20    Dwayne Haskins    WAS    22.3    rook
4    21    Daniel Jones    NYG    22.3    rook
4    22    Tom Brady    NE    42.1    (19)
4    23    Marcus Mariota    TEN    25.8    (20)
4    24    Kirk Cousins    MIN    31.0    (21)
4    25    Matthew Stafford    DET    31.6    (22)
4    26    Philip Rivers    LAC    37.7    (23)
4    27    Ben Roethlisberger    PIT    37.5    (24)
4    28    Josh Rosen    MIA    22.6    (25)
4    29    Drew Lock    DEN    22.8    rook
4    30    Andy Dalton    CIN    31.8    (26)
4    31    Nick Foles    JAX    30.6    (27)
4    32    Derek Carr    OAK    28.4    (28)
5    33    Ryan Fitzpatrick    MIA    36.8    (29)
5    34    Tyrod Taylor    LAC    30.1    (31)
5    35    Teddy Bridgewater    NO    26.8    (34)
5    36    Joe Flacco    DEN    34.6    (35)
5    37    Nick Mullens    SF    24.4    (36)
5    38    Will Grier    CAR    24.4    rook
5    39    Mason Rudolph    PIT    24.1    (38)
5    40    Alex Smith    WAS    35.3    (32)
5    41    Ryan Finley    CIN    24.7    rook
6    42    Ryan Tannehill    TEN    31.1    (33)
6    43    Case Keenum    WAS    31.5    (37)
6    44    Blake Bortles    RAM    27.7    (30)
6    45    Jacoby Brissett    IND    26.7    (41)
6    46    Kyle Lauletta    NYG    24.5    (40)
6    47    DeShone Kizer    GB    23.7    (42)
6    48    Eli Manning    NYG    38.7    (43)
6    49    Colt McCoy    WAS    33.0    (44)
6    50    Mike White    DAL    24.4    (45)
6    51    Taysom Hill    NO    29.0    (47)
6    52    Sam Bradford    ARI    31.8    (39)
6    53    Robert Griffin III    BAL    29.5    (49)
6    54    Garrett Gilbert    CLE    28.2    (48)
6    55    Chad Henne    KC    34.2    rook
6    56    Clayton Thorson    PHI    23.7    rook
6    57    Chad Kelly        25.4    (51)

Kyler jumps right in to the #5 slot, at the top of tier 3. His running gives him the edge over guys like Wentz & Goff.

Haskins and Jones are down at QB20 & 21, with Haskins falling to pick 15 of the NFL draft and Jones looking really shaky as a prospect despite going #6.

Post-draft RB rankings. PPR, start 2 RB, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/19. Prev from 3/9/19.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Saquon Barkley    NYG    22.6    (1)
2    2    Christian McCaffrey    CAR    23.2    (2)
2    3    Alvin Kamara    NO    24.1    (3)
2    4    Ezekiel Elliott    DAL    24.1    (4)
3    5    Melvin Gordon    LAC    26.4    (5)
3    6    Todd Gurley    RAM    25.1    (6)
4    7    Joe Mixon    CIN    23.1    (8)
4    8    LeVeon Bell    NYJ    27.5    (7)
4    9    Nick Chubb    CLE    23.7    (9)
4    10    David Johnson    ARI    27.7    (10)
5    11    Dalvin Cook    MIN    24.1    (11)
5    12    Leonard Fournette    JAX    24.6    (12)
5    13    Kerryon Johnson    DET    22.2    (13)
5    14    James Conner    PIT    24.3    (16)
5    15    Josh Jacobs    OAK    21.6    rook
5    16    Kareem Hunt    CLE    24.1    (15)
6    17    Derrick Henry    TEN    25.1    (17)
6    18    Aaron Jones    GB    24.7    (18)
6    19    Damien Williams    KC    27.4    (23)
6    20    Sony Michel    NE    24.5    (14)
6    21    Chris Carson    SEA    25.0    (26)
6    22    Marlon Mack    IND    23.5    (24)
6    23    Derrius Guice    WAS    22.2    (20)
6    24    Miles Sanders    PHI    22.3    rook
6    25    David Montgomery    CHI    22.2    rook
6    26    Rashaad Penny    SEA    23.6    (19)
6    27    Phillip Lindsay    DEN    25.1    (21)
6    28    Darrell Henderson    LAR    22.0    rook
6    29    Devonta Freeman    ATL    27.5    (22)
6    30    Tarik Cohen    CHI    24.1    (28)
6    31    James White    NE    27.6    (29)
6    32    Damien Harris    NWE    22.6    rook
6    33    Mark Ingram    BAL    29.7    (37)
7    34    Lamar Miller    HOU    28.4    (31)
7    35    Jerick McKinnon    SF    27.3    (25)
7    36    Tevin Coleman    SF    26.4    (27)
7    37    Kenyan Drake    MIA    25.6    (32)
7    38    Nyheim Hines    IND    22.8    (33)
7    39    Ronald Jones II    TB    22.1    (34)
7    40    Austin Ekeler    LAC    24.3    (36)
7    41    Matt Breida    SF    24.5    (35)
7    42    Royce Freeman    DEN    23.5    (44)
8    43    Justice Hill    BAL    21.8    rook
8    44    Bryce Love    WAS    22.1    rook
8    45    Peyton Barber    TB    25.5    (50)
8    46    Latavius Murray    NO    28.5    (51)
8    47    Duke Johnson    CLE    25.9    (40)
8    48    Jalen Richard    OAK    25.9    (41)
8    49    Devin Singletary    BUF    22.0    rook
8    50    Alexander Mattison    MIN    21.2    rook
8    51    C.J. Anderson    DET    28.6    (49)
8    52    Jordan Howard    PHI    24.8    (30)
8    53    LeSean McCoy    BUF    31.1    (45)
8    54    Jay Ajayi        26.2    (39)
8    55    Dion Lewis    TEN    28.9    (42)
8    56    Giovani Bernard    CIN    27.8    (53)
8    57    Chris Thompson    WAS    28.9    (52)
8    58    Carlos Hyde    KC    28.9    (47)
8    59    D'Onta Foreman    HOU    23.4    (48)
9    60    Jaylen Samuels    PIT    23.1    (55)
9    61    Malcolm Brown    RAM    26.3    (66)
9    62    T.J. Yeldon    BUF    25.9    (38)
9    63    Gus Edwards    BAL    24.4    (43)
9    64    Jamaal Williams    GB    24.4    (56)
9    65    Benny Snell    PIT    21.5    rook
9    66    Ryquell Armstead    JAX    22.8    rook
9    67    Kenneth Dixon    BAL    25.6    (54)
9    68    Theo Riddick    DET    28.3    (58)
9    69    Ito Smith    ATL    24.0    (63)
9    70    Kalen Ballage    MIA    23.7    (74)
9    71    Spencer Ware    IND    27.8    (62)
9    72    Darwin Thompson    KAN    22.5    rook
9    73    Doug Martin    OAK    30.6    (79)
9    74    Qadree Ollison    ATL    22.8    rook
9    75    Mike Davis    CHI    26.5    (64)
9    76    Darrel Williams    KC    24.4    (88)
9    77    Adrian Peterson    WAS    34.4    (61)
9    78    Alex Collins        25.0    (59)
9    79    Tony Pollard    DAL    22.3    rook
9    80    Wendell Smallwood    PHI    25.6    (57)
9    81    Frank Gore    BUF    36.3    (72)
9    82    Isaiah Crowell    OAK    26.6    (46)
10    83    Corey Clement    PHI    24.8    (65)
10    84    Kenneth Farrow    MIA    26.5    (92)
10    85    Chase Edmonds    ARI    23.4    (69)
10    86    James Williams    KC    23.3    rook
10    87    Darren Sproles        36.2    (73)
10    88    Jordan Wilkins    IND    25.1    (76)
10    89    Elijah McGuire    NYJ    25.3    (78)
10    90    Rex Burkhead    NE    29.2    (67)
10    91    Mike Weber    DAL    22.0    rook
10    92    Chris Warren    OAK    23.2    (71)
10    93    Ty Johnson    DET    22.0    rook
10    94    Ty Montgomery    NYJ    26.6    (68)
10    95    Josh Adams    PHI    22.8    (70)
10    96    Bilal Powell        30.8    (75)
10    97    Zach Zenner    DET    28.0    (90)
10    98    Raheem Mostert    SF    27.4    (89)
10    99    Kerrith Whyte    CHI    22.8    rook
10    100    Devine Ozigbo    NO    22.9    rook
10    101    Corey Grant        27.7    (80)
10    102    Devontae Booker    DEN    27.3    (81)
10    103    Karlos Williams        26.3    (82)
10    104    DeAndre Washington    OAK    26.5    (84)
10    105    Javorius Allen        28.0    (85)
10    106    Justin Jackson    LAC    24.4    (87)
10    107    Cameron Artis-Payne    CAR    29.2    (93)
10    108    Myles Gaskin    MIA    22.5    rook
10    109    Trayveon Williams    CIN    21.9    rook
10    110    Dexter Williams    GNB    22.7    rook
10    111    Rodney Anderson    CIN    23.0    rook
10    112    Jordan Scarlett    CAR    23.6    rook
10    113    Rod Smith        27.6    (91)

Damien Williams, Peyton Barber, and some others moving up after free agency & the draft.

I'm going to need to take a closer look at some of the rookies, especially the ones on tier 10, to see if maybe they should slot in higher.

Kenyan Drake is inconsistent and unreliable, but I don't think there are 36 RBs with a better dynasty outlook.

Think he's about 10-15 spots too low there on the RB board.

That said, there is some interesting depth at RB right now with people like Guice, Sanders, and Penny arguably having high ceilings at a reasonably low cost.

EBF said:

Kenyan Drake is inconsistent and unreliable, but I don't think there are 36 RBs with a better dynasty outlook.

Think he's about 10-15 spots too low there on the RB board.

That said, there is some interesting depth at RB right now with people like Guice, Sanders, and Penny arguably having high ceilings at a reasonably low cost.

Click to expand...

Agreed.  If I look at RB rankings from a mere value perspective, there are 7 RBs in front of Guice that I definitely wouldn't trade him straight up for.  And another 1-2 where I'd have a hard time trading him straight up.

ZWK said:

6    31    Adam Shaheen    CHI    25.9    (25)

Click to expand...

Am I dumb in thinking that Shaheen is still going to be a monster?

I have some questions about the RB rankings.

IIRC you had Dalvin Cook in tier 4 ahead of Nick Chubb in pre NFL draft iteration of your ranking?

Now he is tier 5. Is this because of the Vikings drafting Mattison?

I am guessing it is not because of them drafting Bradbury, Smith and Samia.

You have Nick Chubb in tier 4 and Kareem Hunt in tier 5. I think this is very interesting. I can't argue that they are not both good players, yet it does not seem they both can be performing at a level worth that ranking in the near term. Especially Hunt.

I see you have Miles Sanders and David Montgommery ranked together in the same tier. What gives Sanders the nod to be ahead of Montgomery?

I have noticed in the rookie polls that this is a pretty split decision between the two. 

In the standard poll 

1.03 David Montgomery RB Bears 26% of the vote

1.04 Miles Sanders RB Eagles 50% of the vote

In the PPR poll

1.03 Miles Sanders RB Eagles 29% of the vote

1.04 David Montgomery RB Bears 44% of the vote

You can tell that the vote is split between the two players because of the higher percentage of the other winning the second vote. Their positions flip based on the scoring system.

Tier 6 has 17 players in it while tier 5 has 7 players and tier 7 has 8 players.

bigmarc27 said:

Am I dumb in thinking that Shaheen is still going to be a monster?

Click to expand...

Trey Burton

So Gurley only moved down one after the draft?   Seems like LAR admitted that he isn't going to be the same.

bigmarc27 said:

Am I dumb in thinking that Shaheen is still going to be a monster?

Click to expand...

Dumb is a strong word

Adam Shaheen: I think I'm still higher than average on Shaheen, although not by as much as I used to be. He was a 2nd rounder and there were things to like about him coming into the league, but he didn't show much during his first 2 seasons. It's very rare for a monster TE to do so little during his first 2 seasons - I believe that the only exceptions from the past 20 years are Delanie Walker (who had a rare 8th year breakout) and technically Kellen Winslow (who played a grand total of 2 games during his first 2 seasons because of a couple season-ending injuries). Shaheen does have a bit of an excuse in that he missed most of last year with an injury, but he came back and played in 7 games at the end of the season (including playoffs) while still doing very little as a receiver. So in my eyes he's now similar to generic 3rd rounders like Oliver & Warring.

Derrius Guice: I've been less high on him than other people since before his draft, and getting drafted at the end of the 2nd round and having an ACL injury with a slow recovery doesn't help. Almost all the guys in front of him have already looked good on an NFL field, which counts in their favor. And redraft rankings (like FFCalculator) are also generally not that high on Guice.

Sanders vs. Montgomery: I'm basically deferring to draft order. If they had been drafted back to back I think I'd prefer Montgomery, since he showed more as a receiver.

Chubb & Hunt: I think they're both among the top 10 best running backs on the NFL. Being on the same team hurts both of their value for this year and possibly next year. After that I imagine they'll go their separate ways. Meanwhile, they each have upside/handcuff value for when the other guy misses games and a reasonably good shot at at least baselineish production when they're both active (and either of them could wind up as a high-end starter if he wins a much larger workload than the other guy). Hunt obviously also has the suspension, plus risk of future suspensions.

Kenyan Drake: I do have him too low. I had overlooked how much he did as a receiver last year, and I hadn't realized how solid his redraft rankings were for this year. I guess he should be at the bottom of tier 6 instead of in tier 7. That would make the tiers even more imbalanced, but it does feel like there's a similarity between the tier 6 guys that makes me want to keep the tier that big (although the last couple guys like Ingram are kind of borderline between tiers).

Dalvin Cook: His ranking hasn't changed since the last one, but I did move the tier break so that he's now at the top of tier 5 instead of the bottom of tier 4. That was based on reevaluating what he has done so far in the NFL, rather than on the draft.

Todd Gurley is exactly where I had him before the draft. I had already moved him down a bunch because of concerns about his knee. The draft does hurt his value a bit more, but I don't think it's enough to move him behind any more players because the gaps between players are pretty wide around there. Maybe I should move the tier break to put him at the top of tier 4 instead of the bottom of tier 3.

EBF said:

That said, there is some interesting depth at RB right now with people like Guice, Sanders, and Penny arguably having high ceilings at a reasonably low cost.

Click to expand...

A lot of guys have reasonably high ceilings. Just in tier 6, Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, Chris Carlos, Marlon Mack, Phillip Lindsay, Tarik Cohen, and James White all had stretches last year where they were producing as an RB1, and Devonta Freeman & Mark Ingram were up there in 2017. Some of these guys probably don't have quite as much upside as the others - Mack has been awful as a receiver, Cohen seems too small to get many carries - but top 12 is still pretty good.

ZWK said:

Adam Shaheen: I think I'm still higher than average on Shaheen, although not by as much as I used to be. He was a 2nd rounder and there were things to like about him coming into the league, but he didn't show much during his first 2 seasons. It's very rare for a monster TE to do so little during his first 2 seasons - I believe that the only exceptions from the past 20 years are Delanie Walker (who had a rare 8th year breakout) and technically Kellen Winslow (who played a grand total of 2 games during his first 2 seasons because of a couple season-ending injuries). Shaheen does have a bit of an excuse in that he missed most of last year with an injury, but he came back and played in 7 games at the end of the season (including playoffs) while still doing very little as a receiver. So in my eyes he's now similar to generic 3rd rounders like Oliver & Warring.

Click to expand...

I think this is all correct.  I have been higher too and kept him on a squad longer than I probably should have.

ZWK said:

Looking through my dynasty rosters, the guys that I own the most are: Sammy Watkins, Eric Ebron, John Ross, Gerald Everett, Adam Shaheen, and Darren Sproles.

Starting from the bottom: Darren Sproles has consistently been a 10ppg guy in Philly (PPR), and he has been free or very cheap to acquire. At age 35, on a cheap contract, coming off a torn ACL, with Clement looking good in the playoffs, he might be a lot less than a 10ppg guy this year. But he might still be a 10ppg guy, in which case he'll provide nice RB depth at very little cost (especially in deeper leagues and best ball leagues, which are overrepresented among the leagues that I'm in). And we're likely to have a pretty good idea by week 3 (if not sooner) which of those worlds we're in, so if he is diminished then it'll be easy to cut him and move on to play the waiver wire.

I just wrote a lot about guys like Everett & Shaheen. They're second round TEs going into their second season, and they seem like high-upside players. Everett was great after the catch in college and his rookie year, showed strong athleticism at the combine, was highly regarded by PFF, and looks to have a great coaching staff. Shaheen went to a tiny school where he had big production, especially in the red zone. They have been underpriced since they entered the league, probably partly because of they were part of a strong draft class that included better TE prospects. On average only about 2 TEs per year get drafted in the first round and a half, which marks both of these guys as strong prospects in the eyes of NFL decision makers. Also, I tend to play in TE premium leagues which makes these guys more clearly worth the roster space.

John Ross is another guy whose trade value is way below his NFL draft value. I liked him less than a typical first round WR coming into the league, and his first season was a huge disappointment, but dude was a top 10 pick in the NFL draft a year ago and he has obvious strengths. He's being valued near guys like Dede Westbrook and Paul Richardson. I think he was undervalued coming into the league (relative to where he should have been given what we knew then) and is now even more undervalued.

I don't think that Watkins and Ebron are great buys at this point. I think I like Watkins a bit more than the consensus, and Ebron near the consensus. They're on my rosters more because I thought they were undervalued a year or two ago, and they haven't flipped to overvalued so I haven't sold them.

Click to expand...

Updating this a year later, I now own the most of: TJ Hockenson, Sammy Watkins, Gerald Everett, Jalen Richard, and Will Dissly.

Part of the story here is that I play in a lot of TE premium leagues, and I tend to prioritize the position more than other owners do. So 3 of the top 5 most owned right now are TEs (and 3 of the top 6 a year ago).

There is also some inertia, with Watkins & Everett sticking among my most owned.

I targeted Hockenson in rookie drafts, especially in TE premium leagues where I had him neck-and-neck with Jacobs for the top rookie (or for the #2 spot behind Murray in superflex leagues). I was generally able to draft him several picks after that. He was a top 10 pick in the NFL draft, every single scouting report about him was glowing (as was his PFF grade), he had great production and above average size/athleticism, he overtook 1st rounder Noah Fant as his college team's top TE (like DeAndre Hopkins did to Watkins). This is looking like a good choice, as we've gotten more and more positive news through training camp, preseason games, and wk1. It now seems like the top 6 TEs include Hockenson, and they're all on the same tier, and it's not that clear how to order them.

Watkins is someone who I've been up and down on all offseason. After years of believing in his talent (based mainly on what I thought of him entering the league and his great 2nd season), I finally downgraded him after his unimpressive 2018 season on the best passing offense in the NFL while basically healthy (or at least as close to that as he can get). But when it looked like Hill was at risk of a serious suspension I gave Watkins a pretty big boost as potentially the top receiver in the top passing offense; then Hill came through that in the clear and Watkins dropped back down; now Hill is out for several weeks with an injury and Watkins put up a huge wk1. All of this is mostly beside the point for why I own so much of him - I own him now in the same leagues where I owned him a year ago, and I tried to move him this offseason (at least up until Hill's suspension worries started) but couldn't find any takers.

Gerald Everett is similarly on my rosters mainly because of how I saw him in the past. He was a relatively promising TE prospect coming into the league as an athletic 2nd rounder, but now he's into his 3rd season and usually good NFL TEs have shown more than he has by this point. He has hung on to some upside in my mind because PFF loved him last year (despite his meager totals), but if he continues to not show much this year then his value in my eyes will drop pretty fast.

Jalen Richard I someone who I acquired a lot of during last season and early this offseason, beginning when he had established himself as a relatively high volume receiving back for the 2018 season and ending when Oakland drafted Josh Jacobs. He was available pretty cheap and looked like he had a reasonable shot at being a borderline fantasy starter in PPR leagues; that became less likely when they drafted Jacobs and then even less likely now that we've seen the week 1 usage patterns.

Will Dissly had a couple big games to start last year and looked like he had a shot to be a surprise fantasy starter with decent fantasy value at least in TE premium leagues. But the buzz was cut short when an injury knocked him out for the year which was a negative for his long-term fantasy prospects, and also meant that we'd stop getting much new information about his actual ability level. So I downgraded my opinion of him a bit (from where it was after 2018 wk3) to account for the injury and then froze it. Other people gave up on him to a larger degree. So I now own him in both in leagues where I was the one to grab him when he flashed in early 2018, and in leagues where I was able to acquire him for free or cheap since then. He seemed to have recovered surprisingly quickly from his injury, but had a setback wk1; I'm hoping he gets healthy soon both because that's good and because it means that I'll start getting new information about his abilities again so I can cut him if he isn't any good.

Of the other guys that I owned a lot of a year ago: Eric Ebron went from underrated to overrated with his big 2018 season and I traded him away where I could (then the bubble popped with Luck's retirement and I may go down with the ship in the leagues where I still have him), John Ross looks to be having a 3rd year breakout and I'm glad that I still own some of him but I also moved on from him in some leagues this offseason, Adam Shaheen is on the edge of being unrosterable even in TE premium, and Darren Sproles is back to about where he was a year ago (potential RB3) but I moved on from him in some leagues when things looked worse.

With the regular season in the books, I can run my formulaic WR projections for 2020 onward.

I give more details about the method at that link, but basically these are calculated using historical data based only on each player's:

VBD in the most recent season (2019)
VBD in the season before that (2018)
Date of birth
Draft year
Draft pick

And actually it's even simpler for that. For most players, I ignore their draft year and draft pick and use a formula that only incorporates age and the most recent 2 seasons of VBD (with my homebrew approach for calculating VBD). For players who have only played 1 or 2 NFL seasons, I have a different method which does include their draft pick, but I also calculate things using the same method that I use for vets and then I credit them with whichever one gives them a higher projection (although this might overrate late round or UDFA receivers like Slayton & Preston Williams).

Age is shown here as of 9/1/2020. I have added some placeholder spots to show where upcoming rookies will slot in based on draft pick. Prev shows what their formulaic projection was last offseason.

Value  Player         Age   Method   Prev
601    Michael Thomas    27.5    prod    (527)
439    Calvin Ridley    25.7    draft    (292)
388    Chris Godwin    24.5    prod    (166)
386    DeAndre Hopkins    28.2    prod    (617)
386    D.J. Moore    23.4    draft    (216)
372    Davante Adams    27.7    prod    (560)
353    Tyreek Hill    26.5    prod    (609)
349    Mike Evans    27.0    prod    (403)
292    [pick 10]        draft    
274    Cooper Kupp    27.2    prod    (298)
271    DJ Chark    23.9    draft    (72)
268    Courtland Sutton    24.9    draft    (92)
264    Keenan Allen    28.3    prod    (383)
253    Julio Jones    31.6    prod    (358)
253    Amari Cooper    26.2    prod    (222)
249    Stefon Diggs    26.8    prod    (401)
241    Michael Gallup    24.5    draft    (65)
234    Robert Woods    28.4    prod    (300)
230    Kenny Golladay    26.8    prod    (209)
229    Christian Kirk    23.8    draft    (137)
227    Tyler Boyd    25.8    prod    (253)
211    Marquise Brown    23.2    draft    (180)
207    Deebo Samuel    24.6    draft    (134)
205    Allen Robinson    27.0    prod    (85)
184    Odell Beckham    27.8    prod    (328)
183    Jarvis Landry    27.8    prod    (273)
180    Tyler Lockett    27.9    prod    (155)
178    A.J. Brown    23.2    draft    (98)
156    [pick 30]        draft    
148    DeVante Parker    27.6    prod    (36)
142    Terry McLaurin    25.0    draft    (75)
136    Adam Thielen    30.0    prod    (376)
129    D.K. Metcalf    22.7    draft    (83)
123    Keke Coutee    23.6    draft    (84)
120    JuJu Smith-Schuster    23.8    prod    (540)
113    Diontae Johnson    23.8    draft    (81)
111    Antonio Brown    32.1    prod    (419)
107    Darius Slayton    23.6    prod    (7)
106    N'Keal Harry    22.7    draft    (148)
103    Will Fuller    26.4    prod    (150)
96    Sterling Shepard    27.6    prod    (120)
90    T.Y. Hilton    30.8    prod    (192)
88    Julian Edelman    34.3    prod    (58)
86    [pick 60]        draft    
82    Curtis Samuel    24.1    prod    (179)
81    Marvin Jones    30.5    prod    (112)
75    Preston Williams    23.4    prod    (0)
75    Mecole Hardman    23.5    draft    (91)
74    JJ Arcega-Whiteside    23.7    draft    (89)
73    Jamison Crowder    27.2    prod    (59)
73    Parris Campbell    23.1    draft    (87)
71    Andy Isabella    23.8    draft    (84)
71    John Brown    30.4    prod    (12)
70    Mike Williams    25.9    prod    (251)
69    Jalen Hurd    24.6    draft    (80)
69    John Ross    24.8    prod    (104)
67    [pick 90]        draft    
60    Miles Boykin    23.9    draft    (65)
58    Brandin Cooks    26.9    prod    (309)
56    Hunter Renfrow    24.7    prod    (13)
55    Dede Westbrook    26.8    prod    (143)
53    Alshon Jeffery    30.5    prod    (132)
50    Hakeem Butler    24.3    draft    (53)
44    Robby Anderson    27.3    prod    (119)
43    Dante Pettis    24.9    draft    (87)
41    Corey Davis    25.6    prod    (269)
40    Sammy Watkins    27.2    prod    (76)
38    Anthony Miller    25.9    draft    (79)
37    Zay Jones    25.4    prod    (183)
37    Golden Tate    32.1    prod    (90)
34    James Washington    24.4    draft    (72)
33    Adam Humphries    27.2    prod    (93)
32    [pick 120]        draft    
31    Geronimo Allison    26.6    prod    (70)
31    Rashard Higgins    25.9    prod    (55)
30    Gary Jennings    23.5    draft    (32)
29    Breshad Perriman    27.0    prod    (0)
28    Albert Wilson    28.1    prod    (85)
27    Nelson Agholor    27.3    prod    (91)
27    Tre'Quan Smith    24.7    draft    (61)
25    Riley Ridley    24.1    draft    (26)
21    Antonio Callaway    23.6    draft    (47)
20    Chris Conley    27.8    prod    (0)
20    Cole Beasley    31.3    prod    (7)
17    Tyrell Williams    28.5    prod    (0)
17    Josh Gordon    29.4    prod    (57)
16    DaeSean Hamilton    25.5    draft    (37)
13    [pick 150]        draft    
12    A.J. Green    32.1    prod    (141)
10    Emmanuel Sanders    33.4    prod    (89)
9    Jaleel Scott    25.5    draft    (21)
9    J'Mon Moore    25.3    draft    (21)
8    Mohamed Sanu    31.0    prod    (56)
7    Taylor Gabriel    29.6    prod    (25)
7    Larry Fitzgerald    37.0    prod    (40)
6    Justin Watson    25.4    draft    (15)
6    KeeSean Johnson    23.9    draft    (6)
5    Randall Cobb    30.0    prod    (31)

On the whole, the fantasy WR landscape is looking weaker than it was a year ago. The current top n WRs are only projected to score about 82% as much VBD as the top n WRs were a year ago, for most values of n (with the exact percentage varying by a few percentage points).

There are a lot of new names in the top 12, and even the top 5.

There are definitely some places where I disagree with these numbers (e.g., it seems too high on Calvin Ridley and too low on AJ Brown), but when I get around to updating my WR rankings this is going to be one of my main points of reference.

ZWK said:

120    JuJu Smith-Schuster    23.8    prod    (540)
111    Antonio Brown    32.1    prod    (419)

Click to expand...

Hard to reconcile these.

Juju is presumably low in your formulaic projections because his 2019 VBD was bad. But Brown's 2019 VBD was worse, and he is 8+ years older. How does Brown show up with a similar score to Juju?

Just Win Baby said:

ZWK said:

120    JuJu Smith-Schuster    23.8    prod    (540)
111    Antonio Brown    32.1    prod    (419)

Click to expand...

Hard to reconcile these.

Juju is presumably low in your formulaic projections because his 2019 VBD was bad. But Brown's 2019 VBD was worse, and he is 8+ years older. How does Brown show up with a similar score to Juju?

Click to expand...

Mainly because JuJu had zero VBD in 2019, while Antonio Brown had small but positive VBD. Guys who had a big year and then scored 0 VBD the next year have a much worse track record than guys who had a big year and then scored 1-5 VBD the next year. In either of these groups, younger guys did more than older guys, but the effect of JuJu's 0 VBD vs. Brown's 4.6 VBD is nearly big enough to balance out the age gap (Brown also benefits from having a bigger 2018 than JJSS).

A downside of using VBD as the variable to measure production is that it has this huge discontinuity between guys who score 0 VBD and guys who score small positive VBD. Using ppg and a fuzzy baseline brings more players into small positive VBD territory, but that still leaves a huge pool of 0 VBD guys who my formula can't distinguish (except based on their VBD in the prior season). Obviously the prognosis for the 0 VBD guy who defined the lowest VBD baseline should be better than the prognosis for the 0 VBD guy who got buried down the depth chart and caught 3 passes all year, but my formula just sees them both as 0 VBD guys (and therefore sees a large gap between them and the guy who scored 1 VBD). So probably my formula is underrating the 0 VBD guys with the most production (and maybe also overrating the guys who finish just barely above the baseline).

In this case, JuJu Smith-Schuster was the guy who was right at that lowest baseline (my formula defines the lowest baseline as the ppg such that players with at least that many ppg played 816 games, and there were 808 games played by WRs who had higher ppg than him plus JuJu's 12 games). That means that he was just a hair away from having positive VBD -- for instance, if Breshad Perriman hadn't caught that crazy heave at the back of the end zone last week then JJSS would've ended the season with positive VBD. And that would've doubled JuJu's projected future fantasy value, up to 243 VBD instead of 120. That feels much closer to where he should be.

And here are formulaic TE projections going into the 2020 season.

Like the formulaic WR projections, they are based on age and VBD over the 2 most recent seasons for vets. For guys who have been in the league for 2 years or less, they are based on draft pick and production (and with TEs the formula includes receiving stats and not just fantasy stats). This is all explained in more detail here.

Value is projected remaining career VBD, age is as of 9/1/20, and placeholders show where 2020 rookies will go.

Value  Player        Team  Age   Method
426    George Kittle    SF    26.9    prod
357    Travis Kelce    KC    30.9    prod
326    Zach Ertz    PHI    29.8    prod
266    T.J. Hockenson    DET    23.2    draft
256    Noah Fant    DEN    22.8    draft
251    Mark Andrews    BAL    24.0    draft
236    Austin Hooper    ATL    25.8    prod
232    [pick 16]            draft
162    Darren Waller    OAK    28.0    prod
143    Evan Engram    NYG    26.0    prod
124    Eric Ebron    IND    27.4    prod
122    Hayden Hurst    BAL    27.0    draft
116    Dallas Goedert    PHI    25.7    draft
104    Hunter Henry    LAC    25.7    prod
95    Irv Smith Jr.    MIN    22.1    draft
93    Mike Gesicki    MIA    24.9    draft
90    [pick 48]            draft
80    Jared Cook    NO    33.4    prod
74    Jaeden Graham    ATL        draft
72    Dawson Knox    BUF    23.8    draft
64    Will Dissly    SEA    24.1    draft
58    Foster Moreau    OAK    23.3    draft
49    Tyler Higbee    RAM    27.7    prod
46    O.J. Howard    TB    25.8    prod
45    [pick 80]            draft
45    Ryan Izzo    NE        draft
41    Drew Sample    CIN    24.4    draft
32    Jace Sternberger    GB    24.2    draft
30    Jordan Akins    HOU    28.4    draft
27    Josh Oliver    JAX    23.4    draft
27    Kahale Warring    HOU    23.4    draft
26    Trevon Wesco    NYJ    25.0    draft
24    Kaden Smith    SF    23.4    draft
18    J.P. Holtz    CHI        draft
17    Ian Thomas    CAR    24.2    draft
16    Chris Herndon    NYJ    24.5    draft
14    Jesper Horsted    CHI        draft
12    David Njoku    CLE    24.1    prod
10    Durham Smythe    MIA    25.1    draft

Players projected below 10 VBD for the rest of their career include Kyle Rudolph, Greg Olsen, Trey Burton, Dalton Schultz, Jordan Reed, Zach Gentry, Vance McDonald, Jason Witten, Jack Doyle, Jimmy Graham, Tyler Conklin, Jacob Hollister, Tyler Eifert, and Delanie Walker.

This tells us something about the shape of things, and allows for direct comparisons with WR value, although several guys look out of place. Jaeden Graham & Ryan Izzo look overrated here due to good efficiency numbers on a small sample size. Ebron looks overrated because he's being credited for his career year in 2018. Engram, Howard, and Njoku look underrated because the formula ignores his draft pedigree since they're going into their 4th season, but probably they should still be getting some boost for how promising they were coming into the league as 1st rounders. Ian Thomas looks underrated because the formula doesn't realize that his production was much better when Olsen was out.

Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith two more seem out of place.

ZWK said:

Value  Player        Team  Age   Method
162    Darren Waller    OAK    28.0    prod

Click to expand...

Adding a column that shows EVBD/year remaining would be pretty interesting.  3 years of 50 VBD >> 7 years of 22 IMO.

Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Adding a column that shows EVBD/year remaining would be pretty interesting.  3 years of 50 VBD >> 7 years of 22 IMO.

Click to expand...

I don't have an easy way to do that. I just came up with formulas to predict remaining career value (cumulative VBD with no discount rate). The calculation doesn't involve a breakdown into years remaining and VBD/yr, and I don't have an easy way to tack that on after the fact.

Offseason TE rankings. PPR, about 300 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/20. Prev from 4/30/19.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    George Kittle    SF    26.9    (1)
2    2    Travis Kelce    KC    30.9    (2)
2    3    Mark Andrews    BAL    24.0    (11)
2    4    T.J. Hockenson    DET    23.2    (6)
2    5    Noah Fant    DEN    22.8    (8)
2    6    Zach Ertz    PHI    29.8    (4)
3    7    Evan Engram    NYG    26.0    (5)
3    8    Hunter Henry    LAC    25.7    (7)
3    9    Austin Hooper    ATL/FA    25.8    (19)
3    10    Darren Waller    OAK    28.0    (52)
4    11    Dallas Goedert    PHI    25.7    (12)
4    12    O.J. Howard    TB    25.8    (3)
4    13    Irv Smith    MIN    22.1    (13)
4    14    Tyler Higbee    RAM    27.7    (46)
5    15    Jared Cook    NO    33.4    (16)
5    16    Mike Gesicki    MIA    24.9    (21)
5    17    David Njoku    CLE    24.1    (9)
5    18    Gerald Everett    RAM    26.2    (18)
5    19    Hayden Hurst    BAL    27.0    (15)
5    20    Eric Ebron    IND    27.4    (10)
6    21    Will Dissly    SEA    24.2    (28)
6    22    Dawson Knox    BUF    23.8    (36)
6    23    Chris Herndon    NYJ    24.5    (14)
6    24    Jonnu Smith    TEN    25.0    (42)
6    25    Ian Thomas    CAR    24.2    (22)
6    26    Jack Doyle    IND    30.3    (26)
6    27    Jace Sternberger    GB    24.2    (20)
6    28    Foster Moreau    OAK    23.3    (40)
6    29    Vance McDonald    PIT    30.2    (23)
6    30    Drew Sample    CIN    24.4    (25)
7    31    Jordan Akins    HOU    28.4    (37)
7    32    Jacob Hollister    SEA    26.8    unr
7    33    Josh Oliver    JAX    23.4    (30)
7    34    Kahale Warring    HOU    23.4    (32)
7    35    Trey Burton    CHI    28.8    (17)
7    36    Anthony Firkser    TEN    25.5    (57)
7    37    Jaeden Graham    ATL    24.9    unr
7    38    Blake Jarwin    DAL    26.1    (41)
7    39    Kyle Rudolph    MIN    30.8    (27)
7    40    Delanie Walker    TEN    36.1    (29)
7    41    Greg Olsen    CAR    35.5    (33)
8    42    Tyler Eifert    CIN    30.0    (34)
8    43    Mo Alie-Cox    IND    27.0    (53)
8    44    Jimmy Graham    GB    33.8    (35)
8    45    Jason Witten    DAL    38.3    (39)
8    46    Cameron Brate    TB    29.2    (45)
8    47    Jordan Reed    WAS    30.2    (24)
8    48    Vernon Davis    WAS    36.6    (77)
8    49    Ryan Izzo    NE    24.7    unr
8    50    Trevon Wesco    NYJ    25.0    (47)
8    51    Darren Fells    HOU    34.4    unr
8    52    Adam Shaheen    CHI    26.9    (31)
8    53    Dan Arnold    ARI    25.5    (67)
8    54    James O’Shaugnessy    JAX    28.6    (75)
9    55    Zach Gentry    PIT    24.0    (48)
9    56    Nick Boyle    BAL    27.5    (79)
9    57    Ryan Griffin    NYJ    30.6    (78)
9    58    C.J. Uzomah    CIN    27.6    (51)
9    59    Jeremy Sprinkle    WAS    26.1    unr
9    60    Geoff Swaim    JAX    27.0    (73)
9    61    Kaden Smith    NYG    23.4    (63)
9    62    Tyler Conklin    MIN    25.1    (66)
9    63    Jesper Horsted    CHI    23.5    unr
9    64    Alize Mack    NOR    23.4    (55)
9    65    Jordan Thomas    HOU    24.1    (43)
9    66    Caleb Wilson    ARI    24.1    (56)
9    67    Maxx Williams    ARI    26.4    (59)
9    68    Jake Butt    DEN    25.1    (64)
9    69    Tyler Kroft    BUF    27.9    (44)
9    70    Josh Hill    NO    30.3    (72)
9    71    Ricky Seals-Jones    CLE    25.5    (54)

These are informed in part by the formulaic TE projections which I posted yesterday.

Things are crowded near the top among TEs going into 2020, with big seasons from Hooper, Waller, Andrews, Higbee (over the last 3rd of the year), and Dissly (when he was healthy) joining Kelce, Kittle, Ertz, Engram (when he was healthy), and to a lesser extent Henry & Cook. Add in the promising young guys (Hockenson, Fant, Goedert, and some others to a lesser extent), and we're looking at a huge batch of guys who have a shot to be difference makers next year.

Looking at FBG & DLF rankings, I seem to be higher than average on Hayden Hurst, Tyler Higbee, Noah Fant, Jordan Akins, T.J. Hockenson, Drew Sample, Mo Alie-Cox, and Foster Moreau. The big theme there is youth.

Some notable contract situations: Austin Hooper is hitting free agency, Jared Cook has 1 year left on his contract with the Saints, and Gerald Everett has 1 year left on his contract with the Rams. It'll be good news for Hooper & Cook if they stay put, and good news for Higbee & Everett if Everett heads elsewhere.

These could still use some tinkering. Why did I put Kyle Rudolph behind Trey Burton & Vance McDonald? That's a mistake. Maybe rotate those three, Rudolph up to 29, McDonald down to 35, Burton down to 39. That's at least closer to where they should be.

ZWK said:

Offseason TE rankings. PPR, start 3, about 300 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/20. Prev from 4/30/19.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    George Kittle    SF    26.9    (1)
2    2    Travis Kelce    KC    30.9    (2)
2    3    Mark Andrews    BAL    24.0    (11)
2    4    T.J. Hockenson    DET    23.2    (6)
2    5    Noah Fant    DEN    22.8    (8)
2    6    Zach Ertz    PHI    29.8    (4)
3    7    Evan Engram    NYG    26.0    (5)
3    8    Hunter Henry    LAC    25.7    (7)
3    9    Austin Hooper    ATL/FA    25.8    (19)
3    10    Darren Waller    OAK    28.0    (52)
4    11    Dallas Goedert    PHI    25.7    (12)
4    12    O.J. Howard    TB    25.8    (3)
4    13    Irv Smith    MIN    22.1    (13)
4    14    Tyler Higbee    RAM    27.7    (46)
5    15    Jared Cook    NO    33.4    (16)
5    16    Mike Gesicki    MIA    24.9    (21)
5    17    David Njoku    CLE    24.1    (9)
5    18    Gerald Everett    RAM    26.2    (18)
5    19    Hayden Hurst    BAL    27.0    (15)
5    20    Eric Ebron    IND    27.4    (10)
6    21    Will Dissly    SEA    24.2    (28)
6    22    Dawson Knox    BUF    23.8    (36)
6    23    Chris Herndon    NYJ    24.5    (14)
6    24    Jonnu Smith    TEN    25.0    (42)
6    25    Ian Thomas    CAR    24.2    (22)
6    26    Jack Doyle    IND    30.3    (26)
6    27    Jace Sternberger    GB    24.2    (20)
6    28    Foster Moreau    OAK    23.3    (40)
6    29    Vance McDonald    PIT    30.2    (23)
6    30    Drew Sample    CIN    24.4    (25)
7    31    Jordan Akins    HOU    28.4    (37)
7    32    Jacob Hollister    SEA    26.8    unr
7    33    Josh Oliver    JAX    23.4    (30)
7    34    Kahale Warring    HOU    23.4    (32)
7    35    Trey Burton    CHI    28.8    (17)
7    36    Anthony Firkser    TEN    25.5    (57)
7    37    Jaeden Graham    ATL    24.9    unr
7    38    Blake Jarwin    DAL    26.1    (41)
7    39    Kyle Rudolph    MIN    30.8    (27)
7    40    Delanie Walker    TEN    36.1    (29)
7    41    Greg Olsen    CAR    35.5    (33)
8    42    Tyler Eifert    CIN    30.0    (34)
8    43    Mo Alie-Cox    IND    27.0    (53)
8    44    Jimmy Graham    GB    33.8    (35)
8    45    Jason Witten    DAL    38.3    (39)
8    46    Cameron Brate    TB    29.2    (45)
8    47    Jordan Reed    WAS    30.2    (24)
8    48    Vernon Davis    WAS    36.6    (77)
8    49    Ryan Izzo    NE    24.7    unr
8    50    Trevon Wesco    NYJ    25.0    (47)
8    51    Darren Fells    HOU    34.4    unr
8    52    Adam Shaheen    CHI    26.9    (31)
8    53    Dan Arnold    ARI    25.5    (67)
8    54    James O’Shaugnessy    JAX    28.6    (75)
9    55    Zach Gentry    PIT    24.0    (48)
9    56    Nick Boyle    BAL    27.5    (79)
9    57    Ryan Griffin    NYJ    30.6    (78)
9    58    C.J. Uzomah    CIN    27.6    (51)
9    59    Jeremy Sprinkle    WAS    26.1    unr
9    60    Geoff Swaim    JAX    27.0    (73)
9    61    Kaden Smith    NYG    23.4    (63)
9    62    Tyler Conklin    MIN    25.1    (66)
9    63    Jesper Horsted    CHI    23.5    unr
9    64    Alize Mack    NOR    23.4    (55)
9    65    Jordan Thomas    HOU    24.1    (43)
9    66    Caleb Wilson    ARI    24.1    (56)
9    67    Maxx Williams    ARI    26.4    (59)
9    68    Jake Butt    DEN    25.1    (64)
9    69    Tyler Kroft    BUF    27.9    (44)
9    70    Josh Hill    NO    30.3    (72)
9    71    Ricky Seals-Jones    CLE    25.5    (54)

These are informed in part by the formulaic TE projections which I posted yesterday.

Things are crowded near the top among TEs going into 2020, with big seasons from Hooper, Waller, Andrews, Higbee (over the last 3rd of the year), and Dissly (when he was healthy) joining Kelce, Kittle, Ertz, Engram (when he was healthy), and to a lesser extent Henry & Cook. Add in the promising young guys (Hockenson, Fant, Goedert, and some others to a lesser extent), and we're looking at a huge batch of guys who have a shot to be difference makers next year.

Looking at FBG & DLF rankings, I seem to be higher than average on Hayden Hurst, Tyler Higbee, Noah Fant, Jordan Akins, T.J. Hockenson, Drew Sample, Mo Alie-Cox, and Foster Moreau. The big theme there is youth.

Some notable contract situations: Austin Hooper is hitting free agency, Jared Cook has 1 year left on his contract with the Saints, and Gerald Everett has 1 year left on his contract with the Rams. It'll be good news for Hooper & Cook if they stay put, and good news for Higbee & Everett if Everett heads elsewhere.

Click to expand...

I think Kaden Smith should be a little higher based on youth and production. He was so consistent at the end of the season, with two different QB’s, that he must have some talent. Right? 

Kaden Smith was 3rd string behind Engram & Ellison. Raw stats were ok but his PFF grade and his DVOA weren't very good. So not that optimistic about his talent. And not much opportunity behind Engram. Seems like he should be somewhere in tier 8 or 9, not worth rostering outside of deep leagues or TE premium.

ZWK said:

Mainly because JuJu had zero VBD in 2019, while Antonio Brown had small but positive VBD. Guys who had a big year and then scored 0 VBD the next year have a much worse track record than guys who had a big year and then scored 1-5 VBD the next year. In either of these groups, younger guys did more than older guys, but the effect of JuJu's 0 VBD vs. Brown's 4.6 VBD is nearly big enough to balance out the age gap (Brown also benefits from having a bigger 2018 than JJSS).

A downside of using VBD as the variable to measure production is that it has this huge discontinuity between guys who score 0 VBD and guys who score small positive VBD. Using ppg and a fuzzy baseline brings more players into small positive VBD territory, but that still leaves a huge pool of 0 VBD guys who my formula can't distinguish (except based on their VBD in the prior season). Obviously the prognosis for the 0 VBD guy who defined the lowest VBD baseline should be better than the prognosis for the 0 VBD guy who got buried down the depth chart and caught 3 passes all year, but my formula just sees them both as 0 VBD guys (and therefore sees a large gap between them and the guy who scored 1 VBD). So probably my formula is underrating the 0 VBD guys with the most production (and maybe also overrating the guys who finish just barely above the baseline).

In this case, JuJu Smith-Schuster was the guy who was right at that lowest baseline (my formula defines the lowest baseline as the ppg such that players with at least that many ppg played 816 games, and there were 808 games played by WRs who had higher ppg than him plus JuJu's 12 games). That means that he was just a hair away from having positive VBD -- for instance, if Breshad Perriman hadn't caught that crazy heave at the back of the end zone last week then JJSS would've ended the season with positive VBD. And that would've doubled JuJu's projected future fantasy value, up to 243 VBD instead of 120. That feels much closer to where he should be.

Click to expand...

I never responded to this, but thanks for the explanation. I don't have a better idea for something to use in place of VBD, but the bolded seems like a massive flaw.

I realize these were your formulaic projections. When you make adjustments, will you view Juju as a 243 VBD player instead of a 120 VBD player?

Just Win Baby said:

I never responded to this, but thanks for the explanation. I don't have a better idea for something to use in place of VBD, but the bolded seems like a massive flaw.

I realize these were your formulaic projections. When you make adjustments, will you view Juju as a 243 VBD player instead of a 120 VBD player?

Click to expand...

My current WR rankings-in-progress have JuJu at WR15, so closer to a 243 guy (but a bit below that).

It seems like a massive flaw for JuJu, but it's not an issue that comes up much. JuJu is a WR who:

1) Had a strong start to his career
2) Then had a down year where he finished with 0 VBD
3) Which was not due to missing all or most of the season with injury/suspension
4) But there is decent reason to think that he'll bounce back

I looked through my WR VBD data to find receivers who met all 4 of these criteria plus a 5th:
5) And they did bounce back and have substantial remaining career VBD

And I'm coming up empty. Zero comparable WRs.

I can find some examples by loosening the criteria.

If we loosen #4 then we get 2 names: Steve Smith (who surprisingly bounced back from an age 31 down year) and Joey Galloway (who surprisingly bounced back from a 6-year mid-career slump which included two 0 VBD seasons).

If we loosen #3 then we get Yancey Thigpen (who appeared in 6 games in his 0 VBD age 27 season but was hampered by injuries even when he was active). If we remove it entirely then we also get some guys who missed a whole season: Jeremy Maclin, Julian Edelman, Jordy Nelson, Allen Robinson.

If we loosen #2 to include guys who got low positive VBD then we get Randy Moss (age 29), Larry Fitzgerald (age 31), Terry Glenn (age 28), Michael Crabtree (age 27), and Brian Blades (age 25), although there are also questions about #4 for some of these guys.

That last group seems to be most similar to JuJu (though all but Blades were significantly farther into their career). But the way that I've set up my VBD formula with ppg and a low lowest baseline has up till now succeeded at keeping guys like Oakland Randy Moss, Drew Stanton's Larry Fitzgerald, Green Bay Terry Glenn, and returning-from-a-torn-Achilles Michael Crabtree above zero, making their bouncebacks less surprising. Now JuJu is pushing even lower.

And on the other side of things, there are cases where many people expected a bounceback which didn't happen (like Hakeem Nicks, Dez Bryant, and apparently Sammy Watkins).

In part out of respect for the awfulness of Hodges & Rudolph, I mostly disagree with my formula about this one case.

Offseason WR rankings. PPR, start 3 WR, about 300 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/20. Prev from 4/30/19.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Michael Thomas    NO    27.5    (3)
2    2    Chris Godwin    TB    24.5    (33)
2    3    DeAndre Hopkins    HOU    28.2    (1)
2    4    Davante Adams    GB    27.7    (5)
2    5    D.J. Moore    CAR    23.4    (13)
2    6    Mike Evans    TB    27.0    (6)
2    7    Tyreek Hill    KC    26.5    (27)
3    8    Amari Cooper    DAL    26.2    (14)
3    9    Keenan Allen    LAC    28.3    (7)
3    10    Odell Beckham Jr.    CLE    27.8    (2)
3    11    Stefon Diggs    MIN    26.8    (8)
3    12    Calvin Ridley    ATL    25.7    (16)
4    13    Courtland Sutton    DEN    24.9    (29)
4    14    A.J. Brown    TEN    23.2    (34)
4    15    JuJu Smith-Schuster    PIT    23.8    (4)
4    16    Julio Jones    ATL    31.6    (10)
4    17    Kenny Golladay    DET    26.8    (24)
4    18    Cooper Kupp    RAM    27.2    (26)
4    19    D.J. Chark    JAX    23.9    (69)
4    20    Deebo Samuel    SFO    24.6    (35)
4    21    D.K. Metcalf    SEA    22.7    (42)
4    22    Allen Robinson    CHI    27.0    (32)
5    23    Tyler Boyd    CIN    25.8    (15)
5    24    Jarvis Landry    CLE    27.8    (23)
5    25    Robert Woods    RAM    28.4    (22)
5    26    Marquise Brown    BAL    23.2    (30)
5    27    Terry McLaurin    WAS    25.0    (67)
5    28    Adam Thielen    MIN    30.0    (9)
5    29    Tyler Lockett    SEA    27.9    (28)
5    30    Christian Kirk    ARI    23.8    (46)
5    31    Michael Gallup    DAL    24.5    (63)
5    32    Will Fuller    HOU    26.4    (31)
5    33    Mike Williams    LAC    25.9    (20)
5    34    DeVante Parker    MIA    27.6    (83)
6    35    T.Y. Hilton    IND    30.8    (18)
6    36    Brandin Cooks    RAM    26.9    (12)
6    37    N'Keal Harry    NWE    22.7    (21)
6    38    Curtis Samuel    CAR    24.1    (50)
6    39    John Ross    CIN    24.8    (64)
6    40    Robby Anderson    NYJ    27.3    (36)
6    41    Diontae Johnson    PIT    23.8    (65)
6    42    Sterling Shepard    NYG    27.6    (39)
6    43    A.J. Green    CIN    32.1    (19)
7    44    Mecole Hardman    KAN    23.5    (44)
7    45    Julian Edelman    NE    34.3    (43)
7    46    Parris Campbell    IND    23.1    (40)
7    47    JJ Arcega-Whiteside    PHI    23.7    (38)
7    48    Andy Isabella    ARI    23.8    (41)
7    49    Alshon Jeffery    PHI    30.5    (37)
7    50    Darius Slayton    NYG    23.6    (126)
7    51    John Brown    BUF    30.4    (66)
7    52    Sammy Watkins    KC    27.2    (25)
7    53    Jalen Hurd    SFO    24.6    (55)
7    54    Miles Boykin    BAL    23.9    (73)
7    55    Anthony Miller    CHI    25.9    (49)
8    56    Marvin Jones    DET    30.5    (47)
8    57    Preston Williams    MIA    23.4    unr
8    58    Keke Coutee    HOU    23.6    (48)
8    59    Corey Davis    TEN    25.6    (17)
8    60    James Washington    PIT    24.4    (59)
8    61    Tre’Quan Smith    NO    24.7    (51)
8    62    Antonio Brown        32.1    (11)
8    63    Golden Tate    NYG    32.1    (58)
8    64    Hunter Renfrow    OAK    24.7    (117)
8    65    Dede Westbrook    JAX    26.8    (45)
8    66    Emmanuel Sanders    SF    33.4    (60)
8    67    Jamison Crowder    NYJ    27.2    (90)
8    68    Dante Pettis    SF    24.9    (52)
8    69    Hakeem Butler    ARI    24.3    (53)
8    70    Tyrell Williams    OAK    28.6    (79)
8    71    DeSean Jackson    PHI    33.7    (82)
8    72    Cole Beasley    BUF    31.4    (138)
8    73    Breshad Perriman    TB    27.0    (149)
8    74    Allen Lazard    GB    24.7    unr
8    75    Zach Pascal    IND    25.7    (187)
8    76    Greg Ward    PHI    25.1    unr
8    77    Chris Conley    JAX    27.9    (155)
9    78    Devin Funchess    FA    26.3    (56)
9    79    Larry Fitzgerald    ARI    37.0    (84)
9    80    Rashard Higgins    FA    25.9    (107)
9    81    Albert Wilson    MIA    28.1    (78)
9    82    Kenny Stills    HOU    28.4    (77)
9    83    Adam Humphries    TEN    27.2    (89)
9    84    Mohamed Sanu    NE    31.0    (92)
9    85    Auden Tate    CIN    23.6    (185)
9    86    Josh Reynolds    RAM    25.5    (101)
9    87    Kelvin Harmon    WAS    23.7    (113)
9    88    Gary Jennings    SEA    23.5    (74)
9    89    Riley Ridley    CHI    24.1    (88)
9    90    Russell Gage    ATL    24.6    unr
9    91    Jakobi Meyers    NE    23.8    unr
9    92    Alex Erickson    CIN    27.8    unr
9    93    Steven Sims    WAS    23.4    unr
9    94    Randall Cobb    DAL    30.0    (106)
9    95    Taylor Gabriel    CHI    29.6    (116)
9    96    Nelson Agholor    PHI    27.3    (80)
9    97    Tim Patrick    DEN    26.8    (186)
9    98    Demaryius Thomas    NYJ    32.7    (76)
9    99    Isaiah McKenzie    BUF    25.4    unr
9    100    Antonio Callaway    FA    23.6    (81)
10    101    Kendrick Bourne    SF    25.1    (132)
10    102    Marquez Valdes-Scantling    GB    25.9    (71)
10    103    KeeSean Johnson    ARI    23.9    (127)
10    104    DaeSean Hamilton    DEN    25.5    (108)
10    105    Ted Ginn    NO    35.4    (110)
10    106    David Moore    SEA    25.6    (95)
10    107    Willie Snead    BAL    27.9    (103)
10    108    Phillip Dorsett    NE    27.7    (104)
10    109    Tajae Sharpe    TEN    25.7    (163)
10    110    Marqise Lee    JAX    28.8    (72)
10    111    John Ursua    SEA    26.6    (123)
10    112    Zay Jones    OAK    25.4    (62)
10    113    Robert Foster    BUF    26.3    (54)
10    114    Quincy Enunwa    NYJ    28.3    (70)
10    115    Olabisi Johnson    MIN    23.5    unr
10    116    Malik Turner    SEA    24.6    unr
10    117    Damiere Byrd    ARI    27.6    unr
10    118    Geronimo Allison    GB    26.6    (68)
10    119    Josh Gordon    FA    29.4    (86)
10    120    Demarcus Robinson    KC    25.9    (100)
10    121    Jakeem Grant    MIA    27.8    (97)
10    122    Cody Latimer    FA    27.9    (160)
10    123    Deontay Burnett    PHI    22.9    (146)
10    124    Martavis Bryant    FA    28.7    (131)
10    125    Danny Amendola    DET    34.8    (142)

These were influenced by my formulaic WR projections and Footballpros' early 2020 redraft rankings.

Compared to FBG and DLF staff rankings, I'm higher on D.J. Moore, John Ross, Chris Godwin, Jalen Hurd, Andy Isabella, Will Fuller, Chris Conley, and Calvin Ridley. And I'm lower on Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Corey Davis, KeeSean Johnson, Tyreek Hill, Nelson Agholor, Adam Thielen, and James Washington.

Overall looks pretty close to my rankings.  There are 3 that look like a big disparity between mine and yours.  

Preston Williams 20 spots too low

Gallup 10 spots too low

Kelvin Harmon and Josh Reynolds look like great values that late, I'd say 20 spots too low as well

Any other's I'd probably just swap a player or 2 and move a guy ahead/behind which are super nit picky.  

Good stuff. I think right around Amari Cooper at 8 is where there is room for a lot of movement. I can see Metcalf, Chark and Deebo getting into the top 10. I think Juju as well. Freaky year for him. 

Chris Godwin seems like a really obvious choice for the #2 dynasty WR. This year he finished in the top 2 in fantasy points, PFF grade, DYAR, and DVOA. With some of those stats he was behind Michael Thomas, with others he was #1. He's 3-4 years younger than Hopkins & Adams; Tyreek is just 2 years older than Godwin but he carries extra risk. Fantasy Pros has him as a late first rounder for 2020 redraft (at WR6), which seems close enough to their #2 WR Hopkins (who they have at 1.06) for the age gap to dominate. But apparently this is not the consensus view, as he's not in the top 2 in the avg dynasty WR rankings at FBG or DLF. A grand total of 1 ranker out of 14 has him in the top 2 (props to Dan Hindery on that).

DJ Moore was WR14 in fantasy value, WR12 in PFF grade, and WR22 in DYAR. So, not on the same level. But he's a year younger than Godwin, in just his 2nd season, a 1st rounder who I liked a lot coming into the league. And he came on strong over the second half of the season. So he's right in the thick of things in that WR3-7 range.

Zyphros said:

Preston Williams 20 spots too low

Gallup 10 spots too low

Kelvin Harmon and Josh Reynolds look like great values that late, I'd say 20 spots too low as well

Click to expand...

None of these seem crazy.

Gallup is the guy who seems most interesting to me out of that bunch - do you have a pitch for him?

Taking another look at Harmon, I think I am going to move him up a bit.

Though looking at that part of the rankings, I'm going to move Jakobi Meyers up even more. The hope with Patriots slot WRs is to find the next guy in the line of Brown-Welker-Edelman, and that hope is getting slimmer now with the uncertainty about Brady & the franchise, but there's still a shot that the role will continue to exist and Meyers did well for a rookie. That seems like enough to put him in Beasley/Perriman/Lazard territory rather than down with Russell Gage and Alex Erickson.

Some later names. 

Just read article on Steven Sims and how they want to get ball in hands more. Down stretch he had 36 targets in last 4 games and 59 pts in PPR in last 3 with 2 different QB. I prefer his chances over many you have ranked ahead

same with DeSean Hamilton. Once Lock came in, his targets increased. Way better than Tim Patrick. Now chance Denver drafts WR but at no worse #3 with still good chance at being #2 on offence that improved near the end of the season. 

I agree with FBG on James Washington. Big improvement and still young. Think too low. But only 15 spots or so. No big deal. A lot is certainly personal preference in these areas. 

barackdhouse said:

Good stuff. I think right around Amari Cooper at 8 is where there is room for a lot of movement. I can see Metcalf, Chark and Deebo getting into the top 10. I think Juju as well. Freaky year for him. 

Click to expand...

AJ Brown would be 8th for me. I don’t love the guys in the 8th to 13th range.

ZWK said:

My current WR rankings-in-progress have JuJu at WR15, so closer to a 243 guy (but a bit below that).

It seems like a massive flaw for JuJu, but it's not an issue that comes up much. JuJu is a WR who:

1) Had a strong start to his career
2) Then had a down year where he finished with 0 VBD
3) Which was not due to missing all or most of the season with injury/suspension
4) But there is decent reason to think that he'll bounce back

I looked through my WR VBD data to find receivers who met all 4 of these criteria plus a 5th:
5) And they did bounce back and have substantial remaining career VBD

And I'm coming up empty. Zero comparable WRs.

I can find some examples by loosening the criteria.

If we loosen #4 then we get 2 names: Steve Smith (who surprisingly bounced back from an age 31 down year) and Joey Galloway (who surprisingly bounced back from a 6-year mid-career slump which included two 0 VBD seasons).

If we loosen #3 then we get Yancey Thigpen (who appeared in 6 games in his 0 VBD age 27 season but was hampered by injuries even when he was active). If we remove it entirely then we also get some guys who missed a whole season: Jeremy Maclin, Julian Edelman, Jordy Nelson, Allen Robinson.

If we loosen #2 to include guys who got low positive VBD then we get Randy Moss (age 29), Larry Fitzgerald (age 31), Terry Glenn (age 28), Michael Crabtree (age 27), and Brian Blades (age 25), although there are also questions about #4 for some of these guys.

That last group seems to be most similar to JuJu (though all but Blades were significantly farther into their career). But the way that I've set up my VBD formula with ppg and a low lowest baseline has up till now succeeded at keeping guys like Oakland Randy Moss, Drew Stanton's Larry Fitzgerald, Green Bay Terry Glenn, and returning-from-a-torn-Achilles Michael Crabtree above zero, making their bouncebacks less surprising. Now JuJu is pushing even lower.

And on the other side of things, there are cases where many people expected a bounceback which didn't happen (like Hakeem Nicks, Dez Bryant, and apparently Sammy Watkins).

In part out of respect for the awfulness of Hodges & Rudolph, I mostly disagree with my formula about this one case.

Click to expand...

JuJu lost his starting QB for the year.  You have to factor that into his down year.  But you also have to factor that into his long term dynasty value because generally WR1 type WRs can still perform even with poor QBs, but good but not great WRs tend to be QB and system dependent.

Biggest thing that gives me pause in regards to JuJu is that to me Diontae looked like the better, more dynamic WR down the stretch. 

az_prof said:

JuJu lost his starting QB for the year.  You have to factor that into his down year.  But you also have to factor that into his long term dynasty value because generally WR1 type WRs can still perform even with poor QBs, but good but not great WRs tend to be QB and system dependent.

Click to expand...

Juju was banged up lost of the year as well, wasn't he? 

I know the dream is for QB-proof WRs but how many of those are there, really? We've seen Hopkins, OBJ, Evans, Allen, Diggs, etc have down years when the offense was struggling. 

I'm not saying I prefer juju to Godwin by any means but a Tampa threw for 5200 yards this year against Pitt's 2900. How long do we think Tampa is going to be content getting 40 turnovers and a losing record from their qb in exchange for leading the league in passing volume? 

ZWK said:

Kaden Smith was 3rd string behind Engram & Ellison. Raw stats were ok but his PFF grade and his DVOA weren't very good. So not that optimistic about his talent. And not much opportunity behind Engram. Seems like he should be somewhere in tier 8 or 9, not worth rostering outside of deep leagues or TE premium.

Click to expand...

He could rocket up though if the Giants trade Engram for picks. There are some articles out there about that possibility. Of course that's just speculation. Smith put up nice rookie #s at the end of the season.

lod001 said:

He could rocket up though if the Giants trade Engram for picks. There are some articles out there about that possibility. Of course that's just speculation. Smith put up nice rookie #s at the end of the season.

Click to expand...

that'd be a sneaky trade

ZWK said:

None of these seem crazy.

Gallup is the guy who seems most interesting to me out of that bunch - do you have a pitch for him?

Taking another look at Harmon, I think I am going to move him up a bit.

Though looking at that part of the rankings, I'm going to move Jakobi Meyers up even more. The hope with Patriots slot WRs is to find the next guy in the line of Brown-Welker-Edelman, and that hope is getting slimmer now with the uncertainty about Brady & the franchise, but there's still a shot that the role will continue to exist and Meyers did well for a rookie. That seems like enough to put him in Beasley/Perriman/Lazard territory rather than down with Russell Gage and Alex Erickson.

Click to expand...

For Gallup, just for a 1:1 comparison for a guy ranked higher.  He's a better version of Tyler Boyd on a higher powered offense.  Boyd is the default #1 so because he was peppered with targets this year it skews it a bit, but I guess that brings into the question of do you prefer the #1 on a low powered offense or a #2 on a high powered one?  Aj Green back next year throws another wrench into Boyds value and that he's.  Boyd has nowhere to go but down, while Gallup could easily rise (if no Amari extension).  Same goes for Woods/Landry depending on how you view those guys, although you have age on Gallup's side vs those 2.  #2's on higher powered offenses I'd still give the edge to Gallup vs them.  

Zyphros said:

For Gallup, just for a 1:1 comparison for a guy ranked higher.  He's a better version of Tyler Boyd on a higher powered offense.  Boyd is the default #1 so because he was peppered with targets this year it skews it a bit, but I guess that brings into the question of do you prefer the #1 on a low powered offense or a #2 on a high powered one?  Aj Green back next year throws another wrench into Boyds value and that he's.  Boyd has nowhere to go but down, while Gallup could easily rise (if no Amari extension).  Same goes for Woods/Landry depending on how you view those guys, although you have age on Gallup's side vs those 2.  #2's on higher powered offenses I'd still give the edge to Gallup vs them.  

Click to expand...

You make some good points.

Looking again at my tier 5 (WR23-WR34) I could see those rankings getting scrambled a bunch as I think about them some more. There are things to like about all of them. Thielen's possibility of bouncing back to his 2018 form. Lockett seeming to pick up where Baldwin left off with Russell Wilson. Woods playing like the Rams' top WR over the second half of 2019. Landry outplaying Beckham in 2019, and the possibility that the Cleveland passing offense could take a step forward a year later than expected with new coaching and another year of development from Mayfield. Parker having the highest scoring 2019 of the whole tier, accompanied by reports that he has finally developed a work ethic. Upside from Brown & McLaurin who just had nice rookie seasons. Gallup's combo of youth and production. Etc.

In Boyd's case, he has put up good numbers in a variety of circumstances (last year and this year), he has a shot to be the Bengals' top WR going forward, and Burrow could bring tons of upside to the QB position. He was on one of the worst teams in football and is probably getting one of the best QB prospects of the past several years, so I would not say that he has nowhere to go but down.

ZWK said:

6    24    Jonnu Smith    TEN    25.0    (42)

Click to expand...

I get that it's partly hometown bias, but Jonnu looks really low. I'd have him up there with the Alabama TEs Irv and Howard (although OJ was a huge disappointment).  What don't you like?  You did move him up, so maybe he's gaining traction?