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ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021) (2 Viewers)

Perceived value is such a dangerous game in dynasty. I just don't find it helpful to suggest Dion Lewis is below Christine Michael. I know that Lewis now has limited success but Vereen had a prominent role catching balls and Lewis' pedigree is nothing to sneeze at. The perception of Micheal is so skewed because he went so highly in the draft. I remember the Titans took RB Chris Henry(?) a few years back. He had done nothing in college but was a freak athlete. To this point Micheal compares most in my head to Bryce Brown who is begging for a job right now. Also Matt Jones is skyrocketing right now and is probably a tier too low.

 
2 names way down the list that I'd love to get your thoughts on are Knile Davis and David Cobb.

From what little I've seen, Knile Davis has seemed to have filled in very well for Charles when needed and is the heir apparent behind an aging RB. I would think that would put him at least in the top of tier 6, or bottom of tier 5.

And Cobb hasn't shown much at all, and is a 5th round pick, but Sankey isn't blowing things up and most thought Cobb might get a shot once he's back from IR mid-season. Nevermind, maybe he's fine where he is :)

 
Run It Up said:
matttyl said:
How come no one has any love for Chris Ivory?
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Because if you pick a random point in his career, you're almost guaranteed to have ended up with a point in which he was awful.
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But we're not doing that. We're picking him right now in his career. You can't compare his 2014 to his 2015 as it's essentially a brand new team (coaching staff, QB, WR, defense). The team looks be built around running the ball and defense. They are one of the few teams rushing (31.5 per game) more than they are passing (29 per game) - and winning. I'm not saying the guy is top 10 by any teams, but I think a solid #2 type isn't out of the question.

 
joey said:
2 names way down the list that I'd love to get your thoughts on are Knile Davis and David Cobb.

From what little I've seen, Knile Davis has seemed to have filled in very well for Charles when needed and is the heir apparent behind an aging RB. I would think that would put him at least in the top of tier 6, or bottom of tier 5.

And Cobb hasn't shown much at all, and is a 5th round pick, but Sankey isn't blowing things up and most thought Cobb might get a shot once he's back from IR mid-season. Nevermind, maybe he's fine where he is :)
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Davis has put up big volume stats when replacing Charles, but he's played terribly. I think he is quite ungood at football.

 
matttyl said:
Run It Up said:
matttyl said:
How come no one has any love for Chris Ivory?
Click to expand...
Because if you pick a random point in his career, you're almost guaranteed to have ended up with a point in which he was awful.
Click to expand...
But we're not doing that. We're picking him right now in his career. You can't compare his 2014 to his 2015 as it's essentially a brand new team (coaching staff, QB, WR, defense). The team looks be built around running the ball and defense. They are one of the few teams rushing (31.5 per game) more than they are passing (29 per game) - and winning. I'm not saying the guy is top 10 by any teams, but I think a solid #2 type isn't out of the question.
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Possible solid #2 in re-draft? He is already 27, so a solid #2 in re-draft should be lower down in dynasty rankings. I could quibble with certain players ahead of him, but could also say that for certain players behind him. Think ZWK has him in the right range.

I don't think he has shown that he is awful at any random point in his career, I think he has shown that he is injured/more banged up than average at any random point in his career. I would like to see him go a long stretch without any apparent injury troubles. Reports are that his groin was "very sore" after Monday's game. Over/under to next missed game? Week 5?

 
Adam Harstad said:
joey said:
2 names way down the list that I'd love to get your thoughts on are Knile Davis and David Cobb.

From what little I've seen, Knile Davis has seemed to have filled in very well for Charles when needed and is the heir apparent behind an aging RB. I would think that would put him at least in the top of tier 6, or bottom of tier 5.

And Cobb hasn't shown much at all, and is a 5th round pick, but Sankey isn't blowing things up and most thought Cobb might get a shot once he's back from IR mid-season. Nevermind, maybe he's fine where he is :)
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Davis has put up big volume stats when replacing Charles, but he's played terribly. I think he is quite ungood at football.
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thanks for your thoughts. I haven't watched him enough to see how good he is or not (not that I'd be an expert on that subject even if I did watch every one of his snaps). So the future RB in KC is not currently on the roster, in your opinion?

 
joey said:
Adam Harstad said:
joey said:
2 names way down the list that I'd love to get your thoughts on are Knile Davis and David Cobb.

From what little I've seen, Knile Davis has seemed to have filled in very well for Charles when needed and is the heir apparent behind an aging RB. I would think that would put him at least in the top of tier 6, or bottom of tier 5.

And Cobb hasn't shown much at all, and is a 5th round pick, but Sankey isn't blowing things up and most thought Cobb might get a shot once he's back from IR mid-season. Nevermind, maybe he's fine where he is :)
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Davis has put up big volume stats when replacing Charles, but he's played terribly. I think he is quite ungood at football.
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thanks for your thoughts. I haven't watched him enough to see how good he is or not (not that I'd be an expert on that subject even if I did watch every one of his snaps). So the future RB in KC is not currently on the roster, in your opinion?
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Yup.

There are a lot of reasons I feel the way I do about Knile Davis, (I was originally one of the highest- if not *the* highest- on him). This chart, though, distills it all down pretty nicely. Check out Davis' heatmap compared to Charles'.

http://www.footballperspective.com/running-back-heat-maps/

 
Knile Davis: Adam has already covered this pretty well. A couple other stats: Davis has 3.4 yards per carry for his career, Charles has 5.0 YPC over the same time period. Davis has a 36% success rate, Charles has a 51% success rate. In general, real-life "heir apparent" stories don't actually play out that way very often - being the backup to a good RB is not a strong indication that you'll eventually become a starter.

David Cobb: I like him as a player more than a typical 5th rounder, and he definitely has an opportunity in Tennessee. But those things aren't worth that much - he also needs to actually be a good RB in order to win & keep a starting job. If you're playing the market and looking for RBs who you can sell high on later this season, then I guess he's a pretty good stock.

Matt Jones: He looked good this week, but I think some people are overstating it (e.g. plays like this were mostly about the blocking, not his speed or skills). I've moved him up a lot from where I had him, and would not feel comfortable taking him higher.

Chris Ivory: I liked him enough to buy him in one dynasty league this offseason. But he still isn't doing much in the passing game and there are some injury and committee concerns; he seems like a fairly risky RB2 this year.

Christine Michael: He still has a ton of upside, but his chances of hitting it keep shrinking. Michael's problem is that he keeps getting buried down the depth chart and not seeing the field, which is different from Chris Henry's problem (going back to U Arizona) of playing badly when he was on the field.

Abdullah & Yeldon: They've basically stayed put from where I had them before the season started, but a few of the guys who were ahead of Abdullah slid down the rankings which increased the number of players in between them.

 
ZWK said:
WIDE RECEIVER

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev

8 67 Ty Montgomery GB 22.6 (90)
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I feel like this guy's stock might be on the cusp of going nuclear. For the sake of full disclosure I own him almost everywhere and have been following his career since he was catching bombs from Luck as a true freshman at Stanford. Even so, I am still surprised by how good he looks in the NFL. He looked like the most athletic player on the field when the Packers played the Seahawks last weekend. He played a modest fraction of the offensive snaps, but made a huge impact by drawing a long PI call on Sherman and catching 4 of 4 targets on a critical drive to help seal the win. That included this nice catch-and-run:

https://vine.co/v/ePIU75Dr3QX

The burst and fluidity really stand out, and this guy is absolutely yoked for his height. You can see there how he just bounces off the tackles with relative ease. I did not see a lot of immediate value there when GB took him, but now you've got an interesting situation because he seems damn near uncoverable as a slot weapon. Cobb has become a big time FF asset in a similar role and if GB can basically use Ty as a double-vision Cobb then he could start to make a consistent impact in the box score. Either way, he's a guy that I'd be targeting in dynasty leagues if I didn't already have him just about everywhere. I think he's easily worth the risk of a random 2nd round rookie pick and if you can get in on the ground floor for a WR4-5 price or a mediocre prospect, there may be huge profits here.

 
Could I get some thoughts on Moncrief and John Brown? I think both are climbers. I recently gave what I expect to be a high first for Moncrief. I was lampooned a bit but I was looking at the high firsts the past couple seasons and I have Moncreif right in there with them. I have him neck and neck with Watkins and above guys like Parker and Perriman. He has the situation of Randall Cobb. He just ascended the depth chart despite the addition of AJ and Dorsett. I have him neck and neck with Hilton to be honest.

 
What are some takes on a couple of under-the-radar backup RBs, two guys that no one is talking about:

- Raiders backup RB Taiwan Jones

and

- Miami backup RB Damien Williams

LaMarr Miller is already banged up and both Damien and Tai are one hit from being starters so I was wondering what some thoughts are on two guys who could be on most waiver wires.

 
Here is a first pass at offseason WR rankings, posted without commentary. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev shows ranking on 8/26/15.

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 23.8 (1)
1 2 Julio Jones ATL 27.6 (2)
1 3 Antonio Brown PIT 28.1 (6)
1 4 A.J. Green CIN 28.1 (4)
2 5 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 24.2 (12)
2 6 Sammy Watkins BUF 23.2 (13)
2 7 Allen Robinson JAX 23.0 (29)
2 8 Demaryius Thomas DEN 28.7 (5)

2 9 Dez Bryant DAL 27.8 (3)
3 10 Alshon Jeffery CHI 26.5 (11)
3 11 Amari Cooper OAK 22.2 (14)
3 12 Randall Cobb GB 26.0 (8)
3 13 T.Y. Hilton IND 26.8 (9)
4 14 Mike Evans TB 23.0 (10)
4 15 Brandin Cooks NO 22.9 (15)
4 16 Keenan Allen SD 24.3 (26)
4 17 Devante Parker MIA 23.6 (17)
4 18 Kevin White CHI 24.2 (16)
5 19 Kelvin Benjamin CAR 25.6 (19)
5 20 Martavis Bryant PIT 24.7 (33)
5 21 Jarvis Landry MIA 23.8 (52)
5 22 Julian Edelman NE 30.3 (32)
6 23 Jeremy Maclin KC 28.3 (42)
6 24 Brandon Marshall NYJ 32.4 (40)
6 25 Jordy Nelson GB 31.3 (22)
6 26 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 33.0 (53)
6 27 Calvin Johnson DET 30.9 (7)
6 28 Golden Tate DET 28.1 (24)
6 29 Donte Moncrief IND 23.1 (36)
6 30 Josh Gordon CLE 25.4 (49)
6 31 Doug Baldwin SEA 28.9 (79)
7 32 Eric Decker NYJ 29.5 (63)
7 33 Jordan Matthews PHI 24.1 (18)
7 34 Allen Hurns JAX 24.8 (95)
7 35 John Brown ARI 26.4 (47)
7 36 DeSean Jackson WAS 29.7 (27)
7 37 Tyler Lockett SEA 23.9 (51)
7 38 Phillip Dorsett IND 23.7 (25)
7 39 Davante Adams GB 23.7 (21)
7 40 Devin Funchess CAR 22.3 (35)

7 41 Breshad Perriman BAL 23.0 (23)
7 42 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 29.4 (28)
7 43 Michael Floyd ARI 26.8 (34)
8 44 Michael Crabtree OAK 29.0 (73)
8 45 Tavon Austin STL 25.5 (66)
8 46 Dorial Green-Beckham TEN 23.4 (31)
8 47 Stefon Diggs MIN 22.8 (107)
8 48 Willie Snead NO 23.9 unr

8 49 Percy Harvin BUF 28.3 (30)

8 50 Kendall Wright TEN 26.8 (38)
8 51 Travis Benjamin CLE 26.7 unr
8 52 Nelson Agholor PHI 23.3 (20)
8 53 Devin Smith NYJ 24.5 (44)
9 54 Pierre Garcon WAS 30.1 (41)
9 55 Ted Ginn CAR 31.4 unr
9 56 Ty Montgomery GB 23.6 (67)
9 57 Sammie Coates PIT 23.4 (61)
9 58 Jermaine Kearse SEA 26.6 (91)
9 59 Kenny Britt STL 27.9 (83)
10 60 Rueben Randle NYG 25.3 (80)
10 61 Markus Wheaton PIT 25.6 (85)
10 62 Justin Blackmon JAX 26.6 (48)
10 63 Brandon LaFell NE 29.8 (54)
10 64 Torrey Smith SF 27.6 (45)
10 65 Kamar Aiken BAL 27.3 (111)
10 66 Steve Smith BAL 37.4 (77)
10 67 Vincent Jackson TB 33.6 (58)
10 68 Danny Amendola NE 30.8 (84)
10 69 Marqise Lee JAX 24.8 (57)
10 70 Cody Latimer DEN 23.9 (37)
10 71 Jeff Janis GB 25.2 (87)
10 72 Jaelen Strong HOU 22.6 (56)
11 73 Chris Conley KC 23.9 (81)
11 74 Jared Abbrederis GB 25.7 (102)
11 75 Steve Johnson SD 30.1 (69)
11 76 Paul Richardson SEA 24.4 (68)
11 77 Terrance Williams DAL 27.0 (75)
11 78 Victor Cruz NYG 29.8 (55)
11 79 Marvin Jones CIN 26.5 (70)
11 80 Albert Wilson KC 24.1 (71)
11 81 James Jones GB 32.4 unr

11 82 Rishard Matthews MIA 26.9 unr
11 83 Brian Quick STL 27.2 (46)
12 84 Marquess Wilson CHI 24.0 (96)
12 85 Charles Johnson MIN 27.5 (43)
12 86 Brandon Coleman NO 24.2 (60)
12 87 DeAndre Smelter SF 24.7 (82)
12 88 Anquan Boldin SF 35.9 (78)
12 89 Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 25.5 (64)
12 90 Cecil Shorts HOU 28.7 (92)
12 91 Corey Brown CAR 24.7 unr
12 92 Robert Woods BUF 24.4 (89)
12 93 Darren Waller BAL 24.0 (110)
12 94 Eddie Royal CHI 30.3 (88)
13 95 Justin Hunter TEN 25.3 (74)
13 96 Kenny Stills MIA 24.4 (59)
13 97 Stedman Bailey STL 25.8 (65)
13 98 Mike Wallace MIN 30.1 (50)
13 99 Quinton Patton SF 26.1 (94)
13 100 Terrelle Pryor CLE 27.2 (103)
13 101 Josh Huff PHI 24.9 (86)
13 102 Hakeem Nicks NYG 28.6 (109)

 
Too high

Demaryius - not comfortable with him as a wr1 whatsoever.

Hilton - this isn't crazy high but this year should have driven his price down more than this

Maclin - I own and like Maclin but he is a wr2 with low wr1 upside.

Kevin white - oc change. Could change qbs at any time. Won't be the number one wr. Hurt right away, no track record. Too expensive at tier 4 price.

Justin Blackmon - would be surprised if he ever tried to get reinstated.

Too low

Jordy - I'd take him over Cobb who is in tier 3. Tier 6?!?

Marshall - stud

Hurns - two years of surprisingly good production is no longer a surprise

Sanders - I dumped him before Brock came in. Now I'm having second thoughts.

Victor Cruz (by a lot) - two years removed from a bad injury. The calf thing isn't a concern for me. High risk, but the reward is way higher than the other guys in tier 11.

 
bostonfred said:
Victor Cruz (by a lot) - two years removed from a bad injury. The calf thing isn't a concern for me. High risk, but the reward is way higher than the other guys in tier 11.
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I just really doubt that a guys so dependent on quickness comes back from that type of knee injury at near 30

 
Cobb: I expect Green Bay's offense to bounce back. Which would make Cobb's next few year's closer to his 2013-14 than to his 2015.

Hilton: I also expect Indy's offense to bounce back. If you're still high on Luck and Rodgers, you should still be high on Cobb & Hilton.

Calvin: Maybe I'm overreacting, but the risk of retirement plus the rumors of physical degeneration (which the retirement rumors are evidence for) have we worried. That makes him more comparable to Fitzgerald and Marshall as guys with demonstrated high upside who also might not have much time left at that level (Gordon is sort of similar - he is higher risk but has the chance of having more years left). I used to look at guys like Jerry Rice & Tony Gonzalez and think that Calvin's extremely high levels of skill and freakishness meant that he had a relatively good chance to keep going strong well into his 30s, but now that is looking relatively unlikely.

Jordy Nelson: He'll be 31 this year, and he'll have them negatives of 1) coming back from an ACL and 2) having aged ~2 years since the last time we saw him play.

Kevin White: I have him about where I did a year ago, since we haven't learned much of anything about him.

Benjamin: He put up pretty good totals in 2014 thanks to volume, not efficiency. Cam's great year is good news for him in that he'll probably be playing for a better passing offense than I thought he would before this season, but it also gives some reason to downgrade his talent and give more credit to the QB for the success that he had last year.

Hurns: Jacksonville's 2015 passing offense seemed kind of fluky (they had a ton of passing TDs but weren't that efficient on the whole). Hurns's 2014 numbers weren't that good, and I think he was one of the biggest beneficiaries of that somewhat flukish 2015.

Cruz: You're probably right that he's too low. He seems fairly unlikely to return to his pre-injury form, but the possibility of it is probably worth moving him up a tier.

Blackmon: His chances of playing at his 2013 form don't seem that worse than Cruz's, and his upside is higher (e.g., he's 3 years younger).

Edelman: He was WR8 in ppg this year. It doesn't take many years of production at that level to be worth a lot. I also bet that NE will bring him back as long as he continues to produce - he's worth more in their scheme than he is on any other offense

Sanders: 67/1059/5.3 pace in the 6 Osweiler games (weeks 10-16). Doesn't seem that exciting. And he's only a year younger than Edelman.

 
Slapdash said:
bostonfred said:
Victor Cruz (by a lot) - two years removed from a bad injury. The calf thing isn't a concern for me. High risk, but the reward is way higher than the other guys in tier 11.
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I just really doubt that a guys so dependent on quickness comes back from that type of knee injury at near 30
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He came back from it at age 28 and had an extra year to bounce back because of a separate calf injury. It's obviously not a sure thing he comes back or plays at the same level. But it's nowhere near a sure thing he doesn't, and there are three Kansas City receivers in his tier or higher.
 
Difference is you have Edelman at 22 and Sanders at 42. Think most value them very similar. Pats have a history of moving on from guys as they age. They didnt really want Edelman back when they signed him last time, took a long time to get that deal done. Welker was 32 when they moved on from him, same age Julian will be when this contract is done. The beating he takes, im willing to bet hes about done by then. JMO

 
fruity pebbles said:
Difference is you have Edelman at 22 and Sanders at 42. Think most value them very similar. Pats have a history of moving on from guys as they age. They didnt really want Edelman back when they signed him last time, took a long time to get that deal done. Welker was 32 when they moved on from him, same age Julian will be when this contract is done. The beating he takes, im willing to bet hes about done by then. JMO
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That's because Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, but Peyton Manning is no longer Peyton Manning. Sanders had 11.2 ppg with Osweiler. New England's slot receiver (Welker or Edelman) has done better than that every one of the past 9 seasons, with a 13.9 ppg average.

 
ex-ghost said:
Blackmon of the DUI arrest in December? He is toast.
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Who is more likely to be a top 10 fantasy WR in 2018? I'll bet on 28-year-old Justin Blackmon; you can take any one of the WRs who I have ranked behind him. Obviously, the odds aren't great for any of them.

bostonfred said:
Slapdash said:
bostonfred said:
Victor Cruz (by a lot) - two years removed from a bad injury. The calf thing isn't a concern for me. High risk, but the reward is way higher than the other guys in tier 11.
Click to expand...
I just really doubt that a guys so dependent on quickness comes back from that type of knee injury at near 30
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He came back from it at age 28 and had an extra year to bounce back because of a separate calf injury. It's obviously not a sure thing he comes back or plays at the same level. But it's nowhere near a sure thing he doesn't, and there are three Kansas City receivers in his tier or higher.
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The fact that he injured his calf while attempting to return from his torn patellar tendon counts against his chances of returning to form. It's also worth keeping in mind that 2012 was the last time that he was a real difference-maker - his 2013 and (part of) 2014 weren't that great.

 
Jaelen Strong is a guy I still like a little bit. Seems like we disagree there. Can you see him moving up with a larger role next year?

Also, sent you a PM, when you have a chance.

 
ZWK said:
ex-ghost said:
Blackmon of the DUI arrest in December? He is toast.
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Who is more likely to be a top 10 fantasy WR in 2018? I'll bet on 28-year-old Justin Blackmon; you can take any one of the WRs who I have ranked behind him. Obviously, the odds aren't great for any of them.

bostonfred said:
Slapdash said:
bostonfred said:
Victor Cruz (by a lot) - two years removed from a bad injury. The calf thing isn't a concern for me. High risk, but the reward is way higher than the other guys in tier 11.
Click to expand...
I just really doubt that a guys so dependent on quickness comes back from that type of knee injury at near 30
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He came back from it at age 28 and had an extra year to bounce back because of a separate calf injury. It's obviously not a sure thing he comes back or plays at the same level. But it's nowhere near a sure thing he doesn't, and there are three Kansas City receivers in his tier or higher.
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The fact that he injured his calf while attempting to return from his torn patellar tendon counts against his chances of returning to form. It's also worth keeping in mind that 2012 was the last time that he was a real difference-maker - his 2013 and (part of) 2014 weren't that great.
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I would bet on all the guys below Blackmon because they will actually be playing in 2018. I just can't see a way that Blackmon even has a .0001% chance of playing again after that DWI.

 
Good stuff. Appreciate all the effort you put into these rankings, they are valuable in and of themselves, but the discussion adds something as well.

Quick question: you have Dorial Green-Beckham at #46, which is 15 spots below his previous ranking. He dropped almost as many slots as Breshad Perriman, despite playing all year and having a few pretty strong showings. Not bad for a guy who was considered raw coming into the season. Additionally, his rookie QB looked fantastic. Can you share your rationale?

 
jeter23 said:
Jaelen Strong is a guy I still like a little bit. Seems like we disagree there. Can you see him moving up with a larger role next year?

Also, sent you a PM, when you have a chance.
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Alex P Keaton said:
Good stuff. Appreciate all the effort you put into these rankings, they are valuable in and of themselves, but the discussion adds something as well.

Quick question: you have Dorial Green-Beckham at #46, which is 15 spots below his previous ranking. He dropped almost as many slots as Breshad Perriman, despite playing all year and having a few pretty strong showings. Not bad for a guy who was considered raw coming into the season. Additionally, his rookie QB looked fantastic. Can you share your rationale?
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You guys are right - I should have Strong & Green-Beckham closer to where I had them before the season. I had moved Strong down based on losing out to Washington & Shorts, but he looked okay when he played. DGB had fallen in the rankings more because guys behind him played well and moved up, but he should be higher with his upside. ("Fantastic" is overstating it on Mariota, though - he had some great games but also some struggles.)

Jeter, I'll get back to you soon on the PM; that requires more thinking than this does.

 
ZWK said:
jeter23 said:
Jaelen Strong is a guy I still like a little bit. Seems like we disagree there. Can you see him moving up with a larger role next year?

Also, sent you a PM, when you have a chance.
Click to expand...
Alex P Keaton said:
Good stuff. Appreciate all the effort you put into these rankings, they are valuable in and of themselves, but the discussion adds something as well.

Quick question: you have Dorial Green-Beckham at #46, which is 15 spots below his previous ranking. He dropped almost as many slots as Breshad Perriman, despite playing all year and having a few pretty strong showings. Not bad for a guy who was considered raw coming into the season. Additionally, his rookie QB looked fantastic. Can you share your rationale?
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You guys are right - I should have Strong & Green-Beckham closer to where I had them before the season. I had moved Strong down based on losing out to Washington & Shorts, but he looked okay when he played. DGB had fallen in the rankings more because guys behind him played well and moved up, but he should be higher with his upside. ("Fantastic" is overstating it on Mariota, though - he had some great games but also some struggles.)

Jeter, I'll get back to you soon on the PM; that requires more thinking than this does.
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Fair enough on Mariota. I didn't expect him to look nearly that good, so from my perspective, he was fantastic vs my expectations.

Very much understand how he ended up where he did now. Along those lines, is that how Jordan Matthews dropped to 33? Or is that partly a result of Chip Kelly leaving town?

 
Matthews was as high as he was before the season because Kelly's offense looked very friendly for his team's WR1. So now he's rated based more on my estimate of his talent. And I think that Matthews hasn't looked that great, and his numbers haven't been that great either.

Other guys moving up are the reason why he fell as many slots as he did. The Martavis Bryant (20) through Decker (32) part of the rankings are mostly guys who have moved up after a good year. That part of the rankings is stronger than it was a year ago.

 
Why is Hopkins ranked behind Green? Hopkins just had a better season in 2015 than Green has ever had, and he is 4 years younger. Hopkins also did it with an awful QB situation that will likely improve going forward.

IMO Robinson should also be higher than Green. Green really doesn't belong in tier 1 IMO.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Why is Hopkins ranked behind Green? Hopkins just had a better season in 2015 than Green has ever had, and he is 4 years younger. Hopkins also did it with an awful QB situation that will likely improve going forward.

IMO Robinson should also be higher than Green. Green really doesn't belong in tier 1 IMO.
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Correct on all accounts.

 
bostonfred said:
Too high

Demaryius - not comfortable with him as a wr1 whatsoever.
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4 straight years of 90+ receptions, 1300+ yards, and double digit TDs in 3 of the last 4 years. Oh, and has actually finished WR5, WR1, WR2, and WR9 over the last 4 years.

How is that not a WR1? I mean, maybe you're predicting some sort of decline, but he's only 28 and there hasn't been a more productive nor consistent WR in the NFL the last 4 years.

ETA--And before we start using Peyton leaving as a reason to worry, DT's numbers went UP this year when Brock took over (scored 5 of this 6 TDs with Brock from week 10 onward).

 
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Man there's a lot of good WRs.

Decker has finished as WR 9, 26, 14 in PPR the last 3 years. I'm pretty confident projecting him as an extremely solid to high end WR2 for the next 2-3 years. Yet, I can only quibble with a few guys ahead of him.

Its always difficult to blend the veterans in with the young guys. I own Fitzgerald, and have owned DJax. IMO I'd gladly give DJax for either Tyler Lockett or John Brown. Don't really think it's all that close. I'm also concerned as a Fitz owner about the last six weeks of the season. Once ARI was at full strength with Floyd/Brown/Fitz/DJ, Fitz was a WR3 in PPR. In nonppr, he was difficult to use. I'd certainly prefer Decker to Fitz at this point, and I think you can make an argument for John Brown too.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Why is Hopkins ranked behind Green? Hopkins just had a better season in 2015 than Green has ever had, and he is 4 years younger. Hopkins also did it with an awful QB situation that will likely improve going forward.

IMO Robinson should also be higher than Green. Green really doesn't belong in tier 1 IMO.
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You beat me to it. Agree completely.

 
gianmarco said:
bostonfred said:
Too high

Demaryius - not comfortable with him as a wr1 whatsoever.
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4 straight years of 90+ receptions, 1300+ yards, and double digit TDs in 3 of the last 4 years. Oh, and has actually finished WR5, WR1, WR2, and WR9 over the last 4 years.

How is that not a WR1? I mean, maybe you're predicting some sort of decline, but he's only 28 and there hasn't been a more productive nor consistent WR in the NFL the last 4 years.

ETA--And before we start using Peyton leaving as a reason to worry, DT's numbers went UP this year when Brock took over (scored 5 of this 6 TDs with Brock from week 10 onward).
Click to expand...
There's a lot of this anti-Demaryius stuff out there and I can't make sense of it at all.

PPR per game played, last three seasons:

Odell Beckham Jr22.8Antonio Brown 22.4Julio Jones 21.9Josh Gordon 19.4Demaryius Thomas19.4Jordy Nelson 18.5Calvin Johnson 18.5Brandon Marshall18.4A.J. Green 17.6Alshon Jeffery 17.2Dez Bryant 17.1Jeremy Maclin 16.9Julian Edelman 16.5Allen Robinson 16.1Randall Cobb 16.1Eric Decker 16.0Keenan Allen 15.3Mike Evans 15.3Brandin Cooks 15.1Emmanuel Sanders15.1T.Y. Hilton 14.7DeAndre Hopkins 14.7Larry Fitzgerald14.7Sammy Watkins 14.4Jarvis Landry 14.3DeSean Jackson 14.3Other than the top three, which seem pretty obvious, and the five young WRs -- Hopkins, Cooper, Evans, Robinson and Cooks -- I don't think you have a leg to stand if you've got someone else in front of Demaryius.

And when you consider what Thomas has done with Tebow and Osweiler (who was pretty bad overall) he's got a pretty darn good floor too.

EDIT: forgot Cooper.

 
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ZWK said:
Here is a first pass at offseason WR rankings, posted without commentary. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev shows ranking on 8/26/15.

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev

1 1 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 23.8 (1)

1 2 Julio Jones ATL 27.6 (2)

1 3 Antonio Brown PIT 28.1 (6)

1 4 A.J. Green CIN 28.1 (4)

2 5 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 24.2 (12)

2 6 Sammy Watkins BUF 23.2 (13)

2 7 Allen Robinson JAX 23.0 (29)

2 8 Demaryius Thomas DEN 28.7 (5)

2 9 Dez Bryant DAL 27.8 (3)

3 10 Alshon Jeffery CHI 26.5 (11)

3 11 Amari Cooper OAK 22.2 (14)

3 12 Randall Cobb GB 26.0 (8)

3 13 T.Y. Hilton IND 26.8 (9)

4 14 Mike Evans TB 23.0 (10)

4 15 Brandin Cooks NO 22.9 (15)

4 16 Keenan Allen SD 24.3 (26)

4 17 Devante Parker MIA 23.6 (17)

4 18 Kevin White CHI 24.2 (16)

5 19 Kelvin Benjamin CAR 25.6 (19)

5 20 Martavis Bryant PIT 24.7 (33
Click to expand...
Compare the above to a very interesting article on BR from today that projects the top-20 WRs for the year 2020.

Obviously, things will change with, injuries, new players entering the league, and we know some players listed will underperform but this is a very interesting projection to see where players 'could' rank in the next decade.

Go to the link to see the comments.

The age listed is the age each player will be in the year 2020.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2568359-brs-nfl-20-for-20-projecting-top-20-wide-receivers-in-2020/page/22

B/R's NFL 20 for '20:

Projecting Top 20 Wide Receivers in 2020

By Matt Miller, NFL Draft Lead Writer

Jan 12, 2016

1. Amari Cooper (26 Years Old)

2. Odell Beckham (27 Years Old)

3. Sammy Watkins (27 Years Old)

4. DeAndre Hopkins (28 Years Old)

5. Mike Evans (27 Years Old)

6. Kevin White (28 Years Old)

7. DeVante Parker (27 Years Old)

8. Jarvis Landry (27 Years Old)

9. Allen Robinson (27 Years Old)

10. Michael Thomas (26 Years Old)

11. Brandin Cooks (26 Years Old)

12. T.Y. Hilton (30 Years Old)

13. Laquon Treadwell (25 Years Old)

14. Dorial Green-Beckham (27 Years Old)

15. Dez Bryant (31 Years Old)

16. Julio Jones (31 Years Old)

17. Antonio Brown (32 Years Old)

18. A.J. Green (32 Years Old)

19. Demaryius Thomas (32 Years Old)

20. Jordan Matthews (28 Years Old)

 
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Seems to be a penalty on players for simply not staying healthy (or their qb or team not staying healthy) more than the players, themselves.

There is simply no way 15 WRs outperform Keenan Allen given all things equal and health maintains for all candidates.

Dez Bryant doesn't go from being a guy everyone thinks of as 1-3 to barely top 10 based off skill diminishment. Yeah, we all get caught up in what just happened this year but there are a lot of guys that are up one year and down others. When healthy, and with Romo healthy, Dez Bryant can't NOT be a top 5.

Cobb, Benjamin, Hilton, some of those types who we all kind of have a pretty good feel for them and their situation, all seemed to plummet based on nothing more than they simply didn't play (or the QB didn't). That doesn't mean they are lesser dynasty values. Just my thoughts that there may be some heavy grading going into penalizing players for simply not being available.

A few seasons back, Dwayne Bowe was a magical unicorn beast of a WR but anyone who knew anything knew that he was just on one of those teams where they played HORRIBLE (I think it was an all-time record for worst ranked pass defenses they faced that year) pass defenses and they were in those types of games where they were always playing catch-up, etc. I'm not completely lumping these guys into that category, but I can see Hurns and Hopkins and Decker and Cooks all fitting that category. Especially Decker. VERY FEW players get TDS that evenly for that long. Would be shocked to see that carry over into next year.

 
gianmarco said:
bostonfred said:
Too high

Demaryius - not comfortable with him as a wr1 whatsoever.
Click to expand...
4 straight years of 90+ receptions, 1300+ yards, and double digit TDs in 3 of the last 4 years. Oh, and has actually finished WR5, WR1, WR2, and WR9 over the last 4 years.

How is that not a WR1? I mean, maybe you're predicting some sort of decline, but he's only 28 and there hasn't been a more productive nor consistent WR in the NFL the last 4 years.

ETA--And before we start using Peyton leaving as a reason to worry, DT's numbers went UP this year when Brock took over (scored 5 of this 6 TDs with Brock from week 10 onward).
Click to expand...
I would say that the three main dimensions of competition for dynasty assets are age, talent, and production.

There are six wide receivers who were both more productive and younger than Demaryius last year in PPR: Brown, Julio, and Green, (who all have track records just as long as Demaryius', and in my mind are clearly better WRs overall), plus Hopkins, Beckham, and Robinson, (who are all about 5 years younger). Those six should be slam dunks over Demaryius, as they outcompete him in all three categories, often by substantial margins.

Dez Bryant was worse last year, but I think he's a better receiver, he likewise has just as good of a track record, and he's a year younger. He outcompetes Demaryius on two of the three dimensions, (age and talent), and is close on the third.

Alshon Jeffery was top-10 in 2013 and 2014, scored more points per game that Demaryius this year, and is two years younger. Like Dez, he outcompetes Demaryius on two of the three dimensions, (this time, age and production), and is close on the third.

That's eight receivers who in my mind are pretty clearly superior to Demaryius. They're all younger, all but Dez outperformed Demaryius last year, (but Dez has a fantastic history), and all but Alshon are more talented receivers, (but Alshon's pretty close).

After that, you get a bunch of guys who aren't Pareto-optimal, but who have such a crushing age advantage that just finishing pretty close in the other two categories is enough for me to prefer them in dynasty. In this bucket, I have Keenan Allen, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, and Amari Cooper.

Allen roundly thumped Demaryius in production this year, (he was on pace for 134/1450/8 receiving), and would have handily set the record for receptions through age 23 had he stayed healthy, (Fitz held the record with 230, Hopkins broke it this year with 239; Allen had 215 and needed just 3 per game over the back half to claim it).

Watkins, Evans, and Cooper are all sending out extremely strong talent signals. All three were top-10 NFL draft picks. Cooper just became the sixth player in the last 30 years with five or more 100-yard games as a rookie, joining Boldin (5), Julio (5), Hilton (5), Allen (5), and Beckham (7). Cooper and Keenan Allen are the only members of those list who were 21 as rookies.

Despite being two years younger as a rookie, Evans' first two seasons look remarkably similar to A.J. Green's (Green: 31 games, 279 targets, 2407 yards, 18 touchdowns. Evans: 30 games, 270 targets, 2257 yards, 15 touchdowns.) In fact, Evans is one of 7 receivers in the last thirty years to average 75 yards per game over his first two seasons, (minimum 20 games played); he joins Beckham, Moss, Gordon, Green, Boldin, and Holt. (Green, Boldin, and Holt were all 23 years old as rookies.)

Sammy Watkins' 2015 is sneakily remarkably similar to Odell Beckham's 2014. Both players were 22, both players started slowly due in part to injuries, and both players really turned on the jets over the final nine games. After 10/106/3 in his first three games, Beckham finished 2014 with 81/1199/9 in his last nine games. After 11/147/2 in his first four games, Watkins finished 2015 with 49/900/7 in his final nine. At first blush, Beckham's run looks well ahead, but if you rank all teams over the past two seasons by pass attempts, Beckham's Giants ranked 3rd with 377, (behind the 2015 Steelers and 2015 Ravens), while Watkins' Bills rank 63rd with 243, (ahead only of this year's Chiefs). So Beckham played on one of the pass-happiest teams in the league, while Watkins played one one of the least pass-happy; Watkins averaged more yards per target, more yards per team pass attempt, and accounted for a mind-boggling 49.3% of Buffalo's total receiving yards over his stretch compared to Beckham's still mind-boggling 43.8%.

I'd take all of those young up-and-comers over Demaryius; again, I think the talent could possibly be the same, the production shows early promise, and they're all five and a half years younger, at a minimum.

So that's twelve names right there that I have over Demaryius, (though not in that order). Two other names who I think at least deserve consideration are Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks. Neither are as good as Demaryius, but they're both much younger, tied to elite quarterbacks going forward, and have some solid production history of their own. I think that's more a philosophical question of whether you'd prefer a shorter run of higher production or a longer run of lower production, (for me, the answer is obviously "how much lower and how much longer?")

This is how "has actually finished WR5, WR1, WR2, and WR9 over the last 4 years" is not a WR1 in dynasty. (I have him 14th, behind the twelve I named plus Cobb, but ahead of Cooks.) It's not a negative case against Demaryius so much as it's a positive case for everyone else; this is the deepest WR corps we've seen in NFL history, and there are just a dozen guys who are either a ton younger than Demaryius and just as productive in the short term, or else they're a little bit younger than Demaryius, just as productive, and just as proven.

In Mike Clay's "way too early" 2016 fantasy rankings, he has Demaryius set up as WR9. Everyone ahead of him is younger than him. The five receivers behind him are all at least *FOUR YEARS* younger. Four is a lot of years. Based on historical aging patterns, I'd expect them to have at least double the remaining careers of Demaryius.

It's true that Demaryius has been a star over the last four years, (though it's not true that nobody has been more consistent or productive; Antonio Brown edges him by four points over that span in the stipulated 0.5 PPR scoring; no one else is within 50 points of either). But we don't get those points again. Calvin Johnson has been a star over the past six years, (Brandon Marshall is the only guy within 250 points of him), but we don't get those points again, either.

I'm far more concerned with what's going to happen over the next four years. And I think there are at least 12 guys whose futures look brighter; ergo, Demaryius Thomas is not a dynasty WR1, (for me).

 
wdcrob said:
Other than the top three, which seem pretty obvious, and the five young WRs -- Hopkins, Cooper, Evans, Robinson and Cooks -- I don't think you have a leg to stand if you've got someone else in front of Demaryius.
Click to expand...
You don't think someone who prefers Green, Jeffery, Dez, Allen, or Watkins to Demaryius has a leg to stand on?

Edit: Funny enough, one of the few WRs you concede could be ranked above DT is one of the few who I didn't rank over DT; I had Cooks one spot behind him.

 
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Adam Harstad said:
gianmarco said:
bostonfred said:
Too high

Demaryius - not comfortable with him as a wr1 whatsoever.
Click to expand...
4 straight years of 90+ receptions, 1300+ yards, and double digit TDs in 3 of the last 4 years. Oh, and has actually finished WR5, WR1, WR2, and WR9 over the last 4 years.

How is that not a WR1? I mean, maybe you're predicting some sort of decline, but he's only 28 and there hasn't been a more productive nor consistent WR in the NFL the last 4 years.

ETA--And before we start using Peyton leaving as a reason to worry, DT's numbers went UP this year when Brock took over (scored 5 of this 6 TDs with Brock from week 10 onward).
Click to expand...
I would say that the three main dimensions of competition for dynasty assets are age, talent, and production.

There are six wide receivers who were both more productive and younger than Demaryius last year in PPR: Brown, Julio, and Green, (who all have track records just as long as Demaryius', and in my mind are clearly better WRs overall), plus Hopkins, Beckham, and Robinson, (who are all about 5 years younger). Those six should be slam dunks over Demaryius, as they outcompete him in all three categories, often by substantial margins.

Dez Bryant was worse last year, but I think he's a better receiver, he likewise has just as good of a track record, and he's a year younger. He outcompetes Demaryius on two of the three dimensions, (age and talent), and is close on the third.

Alshon Jeffery was top-10 in 2013 and 2014, scored more points per game that Demaryius this year, and is two years younger. Like Dez, he outcompetes Demaryius on two of the three dimensions, (this time, age and production), and is close on the third.

That's eight receivers who in my mind are pretty clearly superior to Demaryius. They're all younger, all but Dez outperformed Demaryius last year, (but Dez has a fantastic history), and all but Alshon are more talented receivers, (but Alshon's pretty close).

After that, you get a bunch of guys who aren't Pareto-optimal, but who have such a crushing age advantage that just finishing pretty close in the other two categories is enough for me to prefer them in dynasty. In this bucket, I have Keenan Allen, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, and Amari Cooper.

Allen roundly thumped Demaryius in production this year, (he was on pace for 134/1450/8 receiving), and would have handily set the record for receptions through age 23 had he stayed healthy, (Fitz held the record with 230, Hopkins broke it this year with 239; Allen had 215 and needed just 3 per game over the back half to claim it).

Watkins, Evans, and Cooper are all sending out extremely strong talent signals. All three were top-10 NFL draft picks. Cooper just became the sixth player in the last 30 years with five or more 100-yard games as a rookie, joining Boldin (5), Julio (5), Hilton (5), Allen (5), and Beckham (7). Cooper and Keenan Allen are the only members of those list who were 21 as rookies.

Despite being two years younger as a rookie, Evans' first two seasons look remarkably similar to A.J. Green's (Green: 31 games, 279 targets, 2407 yards, 18 touchdowns. Evans: 30 games, 270 targets, 2257 yards, 15 touchdowns.) In fact, Evans is one of 7 receivers in the last thirty years to average 75 yards per game over his first two seasons, (minimum 20 games played); he joins Beckham, Moss, Gordon, Green, Boldin, and Holt. (Green, Boldin, and Holt were all 23 years old as rookies.)

Sammy Watkins' 2015 is sneakily remarkably similar to Odell Beckham's 2014. Both players were 22, both players started slowly due in part to injuries, and both players really turned on the jets over the final nine games. After 10/106/3 in his first three games, Beckham finished 2014 with 81/1199/9 in his last nine games. After 11/147/2 in his first four games, Watkins finished 2015 with 49/900/7 in his final nine. At first blush, Beckham's run looks well ahead, but if you rank all teams over the past two seasons by pass attempts, Beckham's Giants ranked 3rd with 377, (behind the 2015 Steelers and 2015 Ravens), while Watkins' Bills rank 63rd with 243, (ahead only of this year's Chiefs). So Beckham played on one of the pass-happiest teams in the league, while Watkins played one one of the least pass-happy; Watkins averaged more yards per target, more yards per team pass attempt, and accounted for a mind-boggling 49.3% of Buffalo's total receiving yards over his stretch compared to Beckham's still mind-boggling 43.8%.

I'd take all of those young up-and-comers over Demaryius; again, I think the talent could possibly be the same, the production shows early promise, and they're all five and a half years younger, at a minimum.

So that's twelve names right there that I have over Demaryius, (though not in that order). Two other names who I think at least deserve consideration are Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks. Neither are as good as Demaryius, but they're both much younger, tied to elite quarterbacks going forward, and have some solid production history of their own. I think that's more a philosophical question of whether you'd prefer a shorter run of higher production or a longer run of lower production, (for me, the answer is obviously "how much lower and how much longer?")

This is how "has actually finished WR5, WR1, WR2, and WR9 over the last 4 years" is not a WR1 in dynasty. (I have him 14th, behind the twelve I named plus Cobb, but ahead of Cooks.) It's not a negative case against Demaryius so much as it's a positive case for everyone else; this is the deepest WR corps we've seen in NFL history, and there are just a dozen guys who are either a ton younger than Demaryius and just as productive in the short term, or else they're a little bit younger than Demaryius, just as productive, and just as proven.

In Mike Clay's "way too early" 2016 fantasy rankings, he has Demaryius set up as WR9. Everyone ahead of him is younger than him. The five receivers behind him are all at least *FOUR YEARS* younger. Four is a lot of years. Based on historical aging patterns, I'd expect them to have at least double the remaining careers of Demaryius.

It's true that Demaryius has been a star over the last four years, (though it's not true that nobody has been more consistent or productive; Antonio Brown edges him by four points over that span in the stipulated 0.5 PPR scoring; no one else is within 50 points of either). But we don't get those points again. Calvin Johnson has been a star over the past six years, (Brandon Marshall is the only guy within 250 points of him), but we don't get those points again, either.

I'm far more concerned with what's going to happen over the next four years. And I think there are at least 12 guys whose futures look brighter; ergo, Demaryius Thomas is not a dynasty WR1, (for me).
Click to expand...
It may be semantics, but to me there's a clear difference between having someone ranked outside of their top 12 and "not being comfortable with them as a WR1".

The first looks at various aspects such as age and talent. The latter is mostly representative of production. I completely agree that DT may no longer be in the top 12 of dynasty rankings. I completely disagree that he should not be considered a WR1. If he's on your team, there are not 12 guys that I would start him over. His production over the last 4 years shows that as conclusively as any other WR. And I don't think that changes at all over the next 2-3 years.

FWIW, if Fred had stated he didn't have DT in his top 12, I wouldn't have posted. And DT is a guy that I've moved or will be looking to move in the near future for many of the reasons you outlined. It doesn't change the fact that he is the very definition of a WR1, IMO.

 
The way I calculate age, Demaryius just completed his age-28 season, (I use PFR's method, where the birthday you celebrate that year is the age you are for that year). I know wdcrob prefers to calculate players age based on how old they are on September 1st, instead, which would make this Demaryius' age 27 season. I think that's also reasonable and perhaps even superior, but I pulled my data from PFR, so I use PFR's method for the sake of consistency.

I haven't calculated 2015 stats yet, but I do have a database with every fantasy-relevant season from 1985 to 2014. Excluding players who are still active, the top 20 receivers in terms of fantasy value through their age 28 season over that span averaged 764.1 EVoB, (which stands for Estimated Value over Baseline, and is my preferred value measurement), with a low of 583.4 EVoB, (Hines Ward), and a median between 697.1 EVoB, (Carl Pickens), and 706.9 EVoB, (Chad Ochocinco).

Again, I haven't calculated 2015 yet, but Demaryius Thomas was at 520.5 EVoB coming into last year, and his career best was 186.5 EVoB, so I'd estimate he's going to finish below the median, with around 100 points fewer than the group average. In short, these guys are pretty solid comps for how productive Demaryius Thomas has been to this point of his career, and if anything, might be a hair generous.

This group of comps averaged 438.8 EVoB remaining after their age 28 season, for a total career EVoB of 1202.8. This means that, after their age 28 season was over, they had already produced 63.5% of their career value. They were just a hair over half as productive after their age 28 season as they were up through it.

Again, the way I calculate age hurts Demaryius Thomas, though he's hardly the only receiver in the sample who suffers that fate; if birthdays are relatively evenly distributed, I'd expect a third of the receivers in my sample to suffer from the same problem, where they're counted as a year older than they would be if I used their age on September 1st, instead. But just to be as generous as possible, let's ignore that and compare him to the top 20 receivers through age 27, (ignoring guys who are still active).

Through age 27, the top 20 receivers averaged 637.7 EVoB, with a low of 456.8 and a median of 594.2. In this group, Demaryius will almost certainly be just a bit above the median; if I had to guess, I'd bet he winds up near Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, and Sterling Sharpe, my #6, 7, and 8 receivers through age 27 by this method. So again, we're dealing with a pretty solid group of comparables.

After age 27, these 20 receivers averaged 503.7 EVoB, for a total career EVoB of 1141.4. This means that, after their age-27 season was over, they had already used up 55.9% of their career fantasy value.

Did excluding active players bias the comparison against Demaryius? Not hardly. The players so excluded were Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Anquan Boldin, Marques Colston, and Steve Smith. Only Smith had as much fantasy value after age 28 as before, (very close to a perfect 50/50 split, actually). Marshall might yet get there, but he has 800 EVoB through age 28, and my best guess puts him at 400 EVoB and counting after; he has a long way to go. Boldin, Colston, and Andre are all pretty clearly near the end; they averaged 750 EVoB through age 28 and just 365 EVoB after. Fitz and Calvin are both still active, but it wouldn't shock me if they both wound up with an even worse ratio, just because their through-28 value was so high; they averaged about 1048 EVoB through age 28, but entering 2015 averaged just 120.4 EVoB after; they both will have added to that total this year, but I have a hard time seeing them even reach 500, let alone 1000.

So what does this mean? Under even the most generous, (to a fault), set of comps, Demaryius Thomas has already used up 56% of his total expected fantasy value. Using the normal set of comps, he's used up about 64%. And this is just based on historical comparables; it doesn't understand that Demaryius was so productive in part because he was playing with a league MVP on possibly the greatest passing offense the NFL has ever seen. (Yes, Demaryius was still great this last year, but not 100/1500/12 great like he was on average from 2012-2014.)

Or, to put it another way... yes, Demaryius has been a star, but we don't get last year's points again. They're already gone.

 
gianmarco said:
It may be semantics, but to me there's a clear difference between having someone ranked outside of their top 12 and "not being comfortable with them as a WR1".

The first looks at various aspects such as age and talent. The latter is mostly representative of production. I completely agree that DT may no longer be in the top 12 of dynasty rankings. I completely disagree that he should not be considered a WR1. If he's on your team, there are not 12 guys that I would start him over. His production over the last 4 years shows that as conclusively as any other WR. And I don't think that changes at all over the next 2-3 years.

FWIW, if Fred had stated he didn't have DT in his top 12, I wouldn't have posted. And DT is a guy that I've moved or will be looking to move in the near future for many of the reasons you outlined. It doesn't change the fact that he is the very definition of a WR1, IMO.
Click to expand...
Totally fair.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Why is Hopkins ranked behind Green? Hopkins just had a better season in 2015 than Green has ever had, and he is 4 years younger. Hopkins also did it with an awful QB situation that will likely improve going forward.

IMO Robinson should also be higher than Green. Green really doesn't belong in tier 1 IMO.
Click to expand...
I'm going to have to rethink my top 15. I think you're right about Hopkins over Green. My intuitive reaction to those two is to trust Green more - I think that's because Green keeps cranking out similar WR1 seasons, but I don't think we've seen a "typical" Hopkins season yet. But for next year in redraft I have them very close and probably with a slight edge for Hopkins. So given the age difference, Hopkins should be a tier ahead of Green in dynasty rather than a tier behind.

There may be other guys near the top who I should reshuffle for similar reasons. There has been a lot of good discussion here, which is helpful.

 
Thank you for updating your rankings. They are a useful tool I use in my dyno toolbox.

Mr. Harstad, if u are still a fbg staff member, it would be greatly appreciated if you would update your dyno rankings on the website.

My thoughts (What I'm doing at these prices):

Mike Evans - I would have him behind Hopkins. To begin with, he has age and talent on his side but the real advantage he will have for, more likely than not, the rest of his career is the ability to play with a franchise qb who is going to target him relentlessly. (Buy)

Dez Bryant - This ranking may be commensurate with his current value, however, I feel a mega meltdown coming. Whether it's playing the rest of his career with an inferior qb or he goes Oakland Raiders' Randy Moss, he is going to be a frustrating asset to own in dynasty. (Sell,sell, sell)

Alshon Jeffrey - Going into a contract year, I think White was brought in to replace him. Maybe he will be resigned due to White's redshirt season but if he stays, fantasy wise, I believe he will be overshadowed by White going forward. (Sell)

Kelvin Benjamin - The worst thing about the injury for KB is Newton realizing he does not need him. (Sell)

Julian Edelman - Edelman and Brady are just right like Goldylocks and baby bear's things.

Fitz/Michael Floyd - The torch has been passed. They are flipped in my rankings (Sell/Buy)

Josh Gordan - Moving him in your rankings, I would place him right behind ARob. (Buy, buy, buy)

Baldwin - I love this guy. The 'Hawks are showing the desire to give Wilson weapons. Whether Richardson can come back, Lockette evolves into the go to guy, they draft someone, or they bring in a free agent, Baldwin's targets are going to evaporate. (Sell)

 
Couple others...

Blackmon's done.

DGB and Perriman are appropriate valued here IMO. However, I see them moving up significantly in the near future.

Travis Benjamin is also intriguing. I can envision a couple scenarios where he will be a strong value going forward, I'm buying him as well.

 
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