How do you weight FBG projections? (1 Viewer)

Now that the projections are up from all the usual FBG staffers, I was curious how other people weighted their projections (obviously if you make your own projections, then this doesn't apply).

There seems to be 3 major schools of thought:

A) Use only one staffer's projections -- pick someone you agree with, hoping that they correctly identify the breakout and above-performing players. (And an argument could be made for picking someone other than Joe & David if you have multiple owners who use FBG.)

B) Weight two or more relatively equally -- for when you don't have a particular staffer you agree with more than another. This might be the "safe" option as it keeps you from reaching too far based on a single staffer's assumptions, though it also dilutes any strong feelings that, if correct, could give you an advantage on draft day.

C) Weight one staffer >50%, but use one or more of the other staffers as counterpoint in case your primary projector might be "missing the boat."

For what it's worth, I've done all of these at one time or another (hell, the first year I played, I averaged projections from about 5 different sites), and haven't really found one method to be any better than another except in terms of having to process the numbers. I was curious if anyone had experience that suggested one method was better than another.

I don't.

I use the fbg projections as a reference to challenge my own projections, which I always do before reading anyone else's.

I then go back and decide, based on fbg's projections, whether or not to alter mine.

I use FBG projections as a reference to how other people in my league likely view players. Then take advantage of the overvalued/undervalued players accordingly.

I use them to see if there is a major divergence in how I see a player to how they (the FBG staff) have them ranked. If I do, I will revisit the player.

That being said, I'm definitely a "tier" convert.

Spike said:

I use them to see if there is a major divergence in how I see a player to how they (the FBG staff) have them ranked. If I do, I will revisit the player.

That being said, I'm definitely a "tier" convert.

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+1

In terms of the statistical projections, I only look at Dodds'. Also look at statistical projections of 1 other service. I will look at the rankings of various FBGs. though mainly to find potential outliers.

Pre-draft rookie rankings I've found not to be worth much...

Pre-season rankings are always very good!

I try and find a guys opinion who has a history of doing well and weigh that opinion more than most.

I always make my own decisions though...

Ack88 said:

I use the fbg projections as a reference to challenge my own projections, which I always do before reading anyone else's.

I then go back and decide, based on fbg's projections, whether or not to alter mine.

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This

I use this site along with some others to verify numbers and isolate differences....then start digging in and refining.

There's no one right way. You have to develop your own mix.

Currently for use in PD for drafting this year I have:

DD - QB 45; RB 55; WR 55; TE 45

BH - QB 55; RB 45; WR 45; TE 55

But FBG is not used exclusively.

Marked said:

Marked, on 15 Jun 2014 - 6:08 PM, said:There's no one right way. You have to develop your own mix.

Currently for use in PD for drafting this year I have:

DD - QB 45; RB 55; WR 55; TE 45

BH - QB 55; RB 45; WR 45; TE 55

But FBG is not used exclusively.

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Interesting. I haven't seen any comparisons in the last 3-4 years, but my mental recall of the last thing I found suggested that BH had the best track record with WR/TE's, DD did the best with QB's, and JW (followed closely by DD) had the best record with RB's. But whether this was a multiple-year analysis or just the previous year, I don't recall. BH is the only staffer I've personally used as a sole projector, largely because more than half my league uses FBG projections, and in past years, he had the most number of articles that explained the reasoning behind why he was high/down on particular players.

I'm surprised at how evenly the different weighting methods are used, though this early in the season, I suspect there's a much larger number of "make my own projections" types than I'd find if I asked this in August.

Using Projections Dominator, my weights pre-draft are fairly generic:

Dodds: QB25, RB25, WR25, TE25, Def100

Henry: QB25, RB25, WR25, TE25

Tremblay: QB25, RB25, WR25, TE25

Wood: QB25, RB25, WR25, TE25

Herman: PK100

I've found this pre-draft weighting to be more accurate (instead of just Dodds at 100% all positions) when comparing to my league mates drafting tendencies and how they value players/positions.

I really wish there were more options to weighting the Team Defense projections in PD.....Dodds can't be the only one who submits projections for Team Defenses within FBG staff.

Using Lineup Dominator in-season, I tend to use Blooms weekly projections more often than Dodds, but I take a look at both each week. Then I choose which I think are more in line with how I feel. Then I look at what LD suggests would be my optimal lineup. I don't always use the exact lineup it suggests, I use it as a guide to make my own choices.

Again, this is my system of weighting available FBG projections, for my league, within PD. It is not indicative of the optimal weighting solutions for everybody and every league.

Ruffrodys05 said:

I really wish there were more options to weighting the Team Defense projections in PD.....Dodds can't be the only one who submits projections for Team Defenses within FBG staff.

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Agreed. I've used CBS and Yahoo projections as well in the past, but I found them pretty poor, especially since my non-IDP leagues award points for low Points Against, which no one predicts very accurately.

Shane Falco said:

Spike said:

I use them to see if there is a major divergence in how I see a player to how they (the FBG staff) have them ranked. If I do, I will revisit the player.

That being said, I'm definitely a "tier" convert.

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+1

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+2

matuski said:

I don't.

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+1

SelenaCat said:

Marked said:

Marked, on 15 Jun 2014 - 6:08 PM, said:There's no one right way. You have to develop your own mix.

Currently for use in PD for drafting this year I have:

DD - QB 45; RB 55; WR 55; TE 45

BH - QB 55; RB 45; WR 45; TE 55

But FBG is not used exclusively.

Click to expand...

Interesting. I haven't seen any comparisons in the last 3-4 years, but my mental recall of the last thing I found suggested that BH had the best track record with WR/TE's, DD did the best with QB's, and JW (followed closely by DD) had the best record with RB's. But whether this was a multiple-year analysis or just the previous year, I don't recall. BH is the only staffer I've personally used as a sole projector, largely because more than half my league uses FBG projections, and in past years, he had the most number of articles that explained the reasoning behind why he was high/down on particular players.

I'm surprised at how evenly the different weighting methods are used, though this early in the season, I suspect there's a much larger number of "make my own projections" types than I'd find if I asked this in August.

Click to expand...

I based my PD %'s on draft accuracy averaged from 2010-12 (apparently 2013 isn't posted yet?!)

Here are rankings by position for sources in PD:

DD - QB 20; RB 02; WR 01; TE 10

BH - QB 04; RB 10; WR 06; TE 03

MT - QB nr; RB nr; WR nr; TE nr *not rated in top 20

JW - QB 16; RB 20; WR 05; TE 11

Not ideal, but what I have to work with for now.