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barackdhouse

Correlation between early drafting and FBG/FFPC success?

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I am wondering if anyone has statistics or info on how owners who drafted early in the season performed in the Championship round vs those who drafted closer to NFL week 1? I am assuming those who drafted closer to week 1 did better, but there are a number of factors that go into it, such as:

*Better value for certain players in early drafts

*Are there more pro's in the early drafts compared to maybe more joe's in the later drafts? Or is this the other way around, or negligible?

*

I'm hoping someone here can do the work for me. Just curious. In my mind it is crazy to draft early, but then again my wallet only allows me to play one or two of these each year. As such I prefer to know as much about each NFL roster as possible when I draft, even if that means skipping out on some value that may exist right now.

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The main event all draft the same weekend it is only the FBG $350 contest that you can draft in early and late. Advantages and disadvantages to doing both. I always believed that drafting earlier gave you the most benefit to trying to win the big prize because you could luck out on finding studs later who will be drafted much higher closer to week 1 starting or an injury gives you a guy you drafted in 10th round turning him into a stud (like in 2010 when Ben Tate went down giving Foster the job who was being taken in the 6th-8th rounds back in July that year)

Turns out for me at least I was wrong. In 2012 I finished 1st and 4th overall in the NFFC $350 contest against 1872 teams and those 2 drafts took place on Monday and Tuesday just a few days before the Thursday kickoff game.

Then last year in RTS I bested 2460 teams on a Saturday 5 days before the opening Thursday game.

I still think odds favor the early drafters I just had some nice luck.

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Thanks for the info. Yeah I misspoke when I said main event - I meant championship round. Were there owners that drafted early that did well in the championship round?

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The championship rds are a complete lottery. Just hope your squad catches lightning in a bottle for 3 weeks. The previous 2 overall winners were ~ 300-400th place entering the champ rds. Hardly elite squads.

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The championship rds are a complete lottery. Just hope your squad catches lightning in a bottle for 3 weeks. The previous 2 overall winners were ~ 300-400th place entering the champ rds. Hardly elite squads.

Haterz gonna hate hate hate

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H2H in general is more of a lottery. Never understood why so many prefer H2H, especially in money leagues. The H2H factor adds more luck because the league is won during a specific 3 week span.

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H2H in general is more of a lottery. Never understood why so many prefer H2H, especially in money leagues. The H2H factor adds more luck because the league is won during a specific 3 week span.

I think the last few posts on this thread are a perfect example of how it's impossible to agree on a format in fantasy football. If H2H is "luck" of the draw and points race over 3-weeks a "lottery", I'd love to know a format which doesn't incorporate either of those. :wall::D

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Seems to me that the FBG championship style is a good hybrid of the two systems. However, this year will be my first playing in a couple of Victory Points leagues. On paper I think that is the best system I have seen so far, but we'll see how it goes this season. If I win I will like it, if I lose I'm sure it will be because it is flawed. You're right, though, it's impossible to get a large FF community to agree. If they put their money in the pot, who cares?

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To get back to my original question, I'm going to be a little crazy and do an FBG early draft. I just think there is too much value in a few key spots not to roll the dice.

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H2H in general is more of a lottery. Never understood why so many prefer H2H, especially in money leagues. The H2H factor adds more luck because the league is won during a specific 3 week span.

I think the last few posts on this thread are a perfect example of how it's impossible to agree on a format in fantasy football. If H2H is "luck" of the draw and points race over 3-weeks a "lottery", I'd love to know a format which doesn't incorporate either of those. :wall::D

I don't think anyone is disputing the fact there is luck involved. We all agree there. Barring some rotisserie style football format, any system with H2H, there is always going to be some element of luck involved. Having said that, there are ways to minimize the 'luck factor' or at least try to.

My biggest beef about the champ rds, 1 round or 1 championship week is equal to your ENTIRE 11 week regular season scoring average. This is the main reason the champ rds are such a crapshoot. And also why the teams in 300th and 400th place can win this thing as easily as the #1 overall team going into the Champ rds. Myself, I'd give more creedance to dominant regular seasons then just 1/4 of your total score at end of year. I've suggested this in the past and went by the wayside (like most of everyone elses's suggestions ;) but i would make the regular season scoring average account for 50% of the Championship rd total vs the 25% only. And then make the 3 Championship rds average account for 50%. Is that a drastic change? No. But maybe now it would skew a bit more to the top 200 teams after reg season vs the 3-400 now.

I know u guys like the 'lottery/anyone can win it' factor but at the end of the day, are people NOT going to join if the reg season counted as 50% towards the final total? I would say you'd lose zero entrants and maybe even gain some.

Again, I know all of this will fall on deaf ears, but that is some of my .02.

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H2H in general is more of a lottery. Never understood why so many prefer H2H, especially in money leagues. The H2H factor adds more luck because the league is won during a specific 3 week span.

I think the last few posts on this thread are a perfect example of how it's impossible to agree on a format in fantasy football. If H2H is "luck" of the draw and points race over 3-weeks a "lottery", I'd love to know a format which doesn't incorporate either of those. :wall::D

I don't think anyone is disputing the fact there is luck involved. We all agree there. Barring some rotisserie style football format, any system with H2H, there is always going to be some element of luck involved. Having said that, there are ways to minimize the 'luck factor' or at least try to.

My biggest beef about the champ rds, 1 round or 1 championship week is equal to your ENTIRE 11 week regular season scoring average. This is the main reason the champ rds are such a crapshoot. And also why the teams in 300th and 400th place can win this thing as easily as the #1 overall team going into the Champ rds. Myself, I'd give more creedance to dominant regular seasons then just 1/4 of your total score at end of year. I've suggested this in the past and went by the wayside (like most of everyone elses's suggestions ;) but i would make the regular season scoring average account for 50% of the Championship rd total vs the 25% only. And then make the 3 Championship rds average account for 50%. Is that a drastic change? No. But maybe now it would skew a bit more to the top 200 teams after reg season vs the 3-400 now.

I know u guys like the 'lottery/anyone can win it' factor but at the end of the day, are people NOT going to join if the reg season counted as 50% towards the final total? I would say you'd lose zero entrants and maybe even gain some.

Again, I know all of this will fall on deaf ears, but that is some of my .02.

What you are suggesting has been talked about for years. Well before the Footballguys Players Championship, as far back as the old, now defunct WCOFF. People have tried to make the championship round and the regular season differently balanced with very similar percentage tweaks. In the end, it really comes down to whether we want to mess with the current format because we hope that another one may be better. And the answer is no. Not because we are stubborn or don't care but because we know that every format has its flaws. This one has them and any new one we change to will have its own. That is a fact of fantasy football and we know it well. So instead of chasing the "perfect" format, we will stay with what has been working. That's not to say we won't fix what's broken and we have done that. But this is a more of matter of preference: you prefer to have the top teams have more of an advantage in the Championship round while we prefer that teams further down the standings have a realistic chance at the big money.

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H2H in general is more of a lottery. Never understood why so many prefer H2H, especially in money leagues. The H2H factor adds more luck because the league is won during a specific 3 week span.

I think the last few posts on this thread are a perfect example of how it's impossible to agree on a format in fantasy football. If H2H is "luck" of the draw and points race over 3-weeks a "lottery", I'd love to know a format which doesn't incorporate either of those. :wall::D

My preference is total points. Plain and simple and removes the H2H luck factor.

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H2H in general is more of a lottery. Never understood why so many prefer H2H, especially in money leagues. The H2H factor adds more luck because the league is won during a specific 3 week span.

I think the last few posts on this thread are a perfect example of how it's impossible to agree on a format in fantasy football. If H2H is "luck" of the draw and points race over 3-weeks a "lottery", I'd love to know a format which doesn't incorporate either of those. :wall::D

My preference is total points. Plain and simple and removes the H2H luck factor.

Total points doesn't prove everything either. If you score 220 points one week and score 120 pts the next is your team better than the team that scored 170 points two weeks in a row ?

If you want the true best and most fair way the only way to do that is have every team play every other team every week so you get 0-11 wins a week.

That takes both the H2H luck factor out and the random scoring high one week and low the next week luck factor out as well.

Consistency is the name of the game not just scoring a bunch of points in a few weeks.

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H2H in general is more of a lottery. Never understood why so many prefer H2H, especially in money leagues. The H2H factor adds more luck because the league is won during a specific 3 week span.

I think the last few posts on this thread are a perfect example of how it's impossible to agree on a format in fantasy football. If H2H is "luck" of the draw and points race over 3-weeks a "lottery", I'd love to know a format which doesn't incorporate either of those. :wall::D

My preference is total points. Plain and simple and removes the H2H luck factor.

Total points doesn't prove everything either. If you score 220 points one week and score 120 pts the next is your team better than the team that scored 170 points two weeks in a row ?

If you want the true best and most fair way the only way to do that is have every team play every other team every week so you get 0-11 wins a week.

That takes both the H2H luck factor out and the random scoring high one week and low the next week luck factor out as well.

Consistency is the name of the game not just scoring a bunch of points in a few weeks.

Total points over the entire season. Who sai anything about points over a 2 week span??

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I'm doing 6 FBGs this year and for the first time, I decided to try drafting early. I drafted three leagues on 8/1-8/3 and will do the other three 9/7-9/9.

It was nice to land a number of players late that I'm sure will be going much higher after preseason. Obviously the trade off is the injury risk with those early picks but if you can avoid that and make it to week 1, there's a nice advantage for early drafters.

My condolences to all you Foster owners. :scared:

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