kittenmittens
Footballguy
Great points. That possibility doesn't appear to be as priced in as it should be but you're right, it could go up more.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (20 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
If you like Kirk then I overpaid. But when skill players hurt their feet, I'm out.
Gave: Christian Kirk WR ARI; 2019 2nd round pick 2.10 #19, 2019 1st round pick 1.4 #4
Got: Tim Patrick WR DEN; 2019 1st round pick 1.1 #1, 2019 3rd round pick 3.5 #24
Gave: Christian Kirk WR ARI; 2019 2nd round pick 2.10 #19, 2019 1st round pick 1.4 #4
Got: Tim Patrick WR DEN; 2019 1st round pick 1.1 #1, 2019 3rd round pick 3.5 #24
-OZ-
Footballguy
Thief!
Andy is building
"Other guy" has a decent team (Goff, Barkley, Lindsey, T Hill, thielen, AJ Green, Edelman, Howard, some depth)
Surprised you had to give up the 3.05 to 2.10 upgrade on top of 1.04/Kirk to land the 1.01. But that's a relatively small price to pay to seal the deal and get a trade done if you want it badly enough. So who is your 1.01?
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
The two usual suspects are the idea and it'll come down to landing spot, most likely.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
In this draft I’d take Kirk and the 1.04 over the 1.01 - not sure they’ll be all that much difference between the two picks and Kirk was a late first last season and looked good as a rookie.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Well, I made the offer so I agree. Was mostly just joking with Andy. I think it's very fair, unless Jacobs goes to KC.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'm willing to wager Kirk that the top two have a ceiling the rest don't.
Until the ugly roster I'm rehabbing has some elite talent on it it won't matter how many Christian Kirks it has.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Giving away young productive assets isn’t always the best way to rebuild a roster.
Obviously this has a chance to work out for you, but I just don’t see any standout “must have” guys to make this worth moving Kirk for (and I’m not some big Kirk fan - don’t own him anywhere). The draft will help sort things out a little but there’s 3-4 great landing spots for RBs and plenty of great spots for WRs to land.
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
FFPC, not involved but the guy giving the picks best wr is prbly Goodwin or R. Anderson, not really strong at rb w henry,coleman,hunt,drake and already had Wilson at QB. He needed a TE (after trading away Kittle who I had traded to him) and I like Howard but I think he could have helped his team a bit more than another qb.
2019 Pick 1.02
2019 Pick 1.09
2019 Pick 2.09
2020 2nd Round
2020 3rd Round
2020 4th Round
For
Garoppolo, Jimmy
Howard, O.J.
2019 Pick 4.06
2019 Pick 5.06
2019 Pick 6.06
2019 Pick 1.02
2019 Pick 1.09
2019 Pick 2.09
2020 2nd Round
2020 3rd Round
2020 4th Round
For
Garoppolo, Jimmy
Howard, O.J.
2019 Pick 4.06
2019 Pick 5.06
2019 Pick 6.06
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Not calling you out in any way but just an observation...
It's just strange how we extrapolate the best case for some guys and not others. For example, people, in general, seem to be all over Kirk for some reason but souring on Sutton when the latter actually had better rookie numbers than the former.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I wouldn't give up on either one yet and frankly I'd prefer Sutton. I've been trying to obtain Sutton all offseason so far with no luck. I have not made any offers for Kirk some I'm not some rabid pro-Kirk guy.
I don't think you made a terrible deal - and it could work out in you favor - I just would not have given up on Kirk after showing some promise just to move up in a draft where right now you could throw 6-7 names in a hat and pick them out randomly multiple times to create rookie ranking and someone would agree with each version you ended up with. I don't see much separation as of yet - even my favorite RB and WR have some flaws.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I might be the biggest OJ Howard fan here but man that's bad. Maybe in a 2qb, TE enhanced scoring league it's okay, sort of.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I know FFPC is 1.5 per reception for TEs - but it's not even like Howard is a high volume TE that gets helped that much in such a format. With the roster you listed this may be a trade that requires some intervention. Garoppolo doesn't even really help the guy.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
FFPC
Gave: Cohen, 1.02, 1.09
Got: 1.05, 2020 1st, 2020 2nd
These picks are almost definitely top 4. Guy has a really thin roster, easily bottom 2 in this league. I'm in a rebuild and targeting 2020 as my launch year so while I like Cohen, I have my eyes on those studs. And I think I can get my top 2 players in this year's draft at 3 and 5 but we shall see.
Trade now leaves me with 1.03, 1.05 and almost definitely 3 top 6 2020 1sts.
Thoughts?
Gave: Cohen, 1.02, 1.09
Got: 1.05, 2020 1st, 2020 2nd
These picks are almost definitely top 4. Guy has a really thin roster, easily bottom 2 in this league. I'm in a rebuild and targeting 2020 as my launch year so while I like Cohen, I have my eyes on those studs. And I think I can get my top 2 players in this year's draft at 3 and 5 but we shall see.
Trade now leaves me with 1.03, 1.05 and almost definitely 3 top 6 2020 1sts.
Thoughts?
Tejas
Footballguy
Honestly this is one of the most lobsided deals I’ve ever seen. I can’t fathom how someone would pay that much for a TE who's ended his first two seasons on IR, in a system (Arien’s) that’s presumably non-friendly for TE’s and a dime-a-dozen fantasy QB, which is single handily the least valuable commodity in FFPC. I wouldn’t have even given up 1.2 for Howard and Jimmy G.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I got a league where I have Cohen with picks 3 and 10. Almost close enough to really put myself in your shoes but I'm trying to compete and could see the difference between pick 2 and 3 being tangible. So if I was sitting on pick 2 in that league I"d pass right now, stand pat, but 50/50 chance if I could get this deal after the NFL draft I'd look at it. But again I'm trying to compete right now.
If I'm building for 2020 I go ahead and accept.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I guess I get the logic but I don't like the deal, at all. Unless that ends up being the top pick next year.
1.02 > 1.05
In most leagues the 9 would get you next year's first (I assume this is the key, you're betting on it getting the top or 2)
Cohen >> 2020 2nd
I get it, just don't like it.
It's already been said many times how bad this trade is but when you think of fact that one team also cleared two extremely valuable roster spots and acquiring team just made it harder to take advantage of value buys that always exist near FFPC cut deadline it's even worse then it looks.
FWIW I've offered picks 9 and 10 for attractive non-playoff type 2020 firsts and the owners of those picks don't want anything to do with that offer.
I've offered picks in 11-12 range for 2020 firsts that are not even non-playoff type locks and those owners don't want any of that either.
Also I view Cohen>1.9 and am insulted for him he got comped to a second.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Meno's response has been my experience too. This is a league of haves and have nots. The non-playoff teams all view next year as vastly superior to this draft and the playoff teams all have strong rosters where a late 1st this year doesn't do much for them.
FWIW I think about the value here as such:
Cohen = 1.05
1.02= 2020 1st
1.09 > 2020 2nd- but honestly not by that much
Im probably a little short on value here TBH but when I'm on the clock next year I doubt I mind much.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Foster and Warren are borderline droppable in FFPC, so I guess this comes down to how you view Damien Williams. I guess a late 1st is a pretty cheap dart throw for the starting RB in KC if he survives the draft, which I think he will. Don't particularly like the player but the value is for the 3 players rather easily I'd say.menobrown said:
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I’m kind of with oz on this but I’m confused how this gives you 3 top 6 2020 1sts, unless you have another from something else that you didn’t disclose. Usually 1.09 can pull a 2020 1st but you need a trade partner and that doesn’t always happen. Still, dropping from 1.02 to 1.05 maybe worth the 2020 2nd and then Cohen/1.09 for 2020 1st? Ok I guess. But the last line is confusing me.skinfanjon said:
Tejas
Footballguy
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Yeah from another trade.
Pretty much the reaction I expected. Should be able to get more for 2019 1sts but it's not happening so far.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
I happen to like both of those players, so I'd take them easily. Anxious to see what Dede can do with a competent QB and they extended Quincy and have expressed that they want to get him more involved in the offense this coming year. Both would be strong holds for me, personally.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Well, I see your line of thinking, but it’s also March. By the time the nfl Draft is complete this could look way different. If Chicago finally moves Howard, Cohen could spike in value. I feel like leaving Cohen out the deal still sounds fair- 1.02/1.09 for 1.05 and 2020 1/2 seems like a reasonable trade. Some drafts you might even see someone offer a 2020 1st to move from 1.05 to 1.02 closer to the draft. I understand you can’t automatically just trade picks or acquire the assets you want in every league though.
I get it, you have your plan and want to get your assets in line to execute it.
beef
Footballguy
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Yep, that's it exactly. Willing to take a small value hit to follow a strategy. And the flip side is if I waited until after the draft, bad landing spots could have made that pick way less desirable. I'll take a slam dunk top 4 pick next year and call it a day.
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
I agree it is terrible, but i think/hope it was just a bad move; smh and watch going forward.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Just had Damien Williams for 1.3 come across in one league. I can't find a believer in any of my leagues where I own him.
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Don Quixote
Footballguy
I noticed that the owner who acquired Williams was in another league with me where I own Williams. Just made the following deal:
Gave: Damien Williams and DaeSean Hamilton
Got: TY Hilton
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Nice deal. Would happily take TY here and I'm a believer in Damien maintaining some good value this year.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Wow no. You're conflating probable player/pick value with current market value. You know your league obviously better than I do but no way am I moving 1.02 for just a random 2020 1st and I can't imagine anyone not snap accepting the 1.02 for one (hope I'm not stepping on my own junk and that's a known lock early 2020 because that does give me pause). And as the rookie draft approaches those picks get even more valuable too. I'd give up my 2020 in a flash for 1.02 straight up right now or any of the 4 random ones I have from other owners. The only one I wouldn't snap accept is a virtual lock to be early next year, but that same owner in a different league just made the playoffs with just as bad an outlook a year ago and I now have the 1.13 as a result. So yeah I would probably move his too.skinfanjon said:
You still might feel that way and no way you'd do the trade but he's been pretty clear it's not a random 2020 1st, it's a top 4 lock.
I personally have had a lot better experience with picks working out when I target middling playoff teams in the FFPC draft playoff format. Seems like every year I get a surefire future top 4 pick it almost always ends up as pick 4-6 in FFPC. Usually the teams are so bad they can't win a draft playoff game. Also you have to be a bottom two team to lock in a surefire top 4 pick so a few times I've thought it was a lock top 4 pick but the team was like the third worst team in the league and not one of the two worst, did not get a draft playoff bye and stunk all their way in draft playoffs to 5-6.
I've landed probably 6-7 top two picks over last few years and almost every single time it was from a middling playoff team, a team where I felt was around like the 6th best team in the league and those picks were usually obtained for a later first. 1.7 was highest pick I ever gave up for a future first, that was last year and got me back 3 this year but I only did that because I had other considerations such as getting a pick in round 2 in an area I had no picks and wanted to one.
So right now as bad as this draft looks especially with lack of sure thing feel to top few picks I'd not be able to equate 1.2 to a sorry teams 2020 #1 just yet. I'd rather sit on the pick and let it percolate before I could assign it that value. But I would in a second give up a middling first this year for a #1 from a middling teams 2020.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
This is an entirely fair assessment and I don't mean to shine the spotlight on myself too much, but feel the urge to add info.
Here is the team whose 2020 1st I just acquired post trade:
QB- Brees, Stafford
RB- Kerryon, Cohen, Duke Johnson
WR: Golladay, Marvin Jones, Tate, James Washington
TE: Ian Thomas
Picks: 1.02, 1.09, 1.10, 1.11, 1.12
The picks give him a decent future but this team is awful in 2019. Next best players are Crowder and MSV.
I'm all in on 2020. I think there are 4-7 guys who would be the 1.01 this year. I now own the 1st for the two worst teams in our league, plus my own which is probably a non playoff team but is a real contender for the 1.01 in FFPC.
If this trade is Cohen, Metcalf/Jacobs, and like Harmon for Etienne/Shenault/Jeudy and (not gonna say my 1.05 but I like it), plus a 2nd in a VERY deep draft that would be a 1st this year in my estimation, I feel like it's an easy win.
I wish I could got more value but I'm trusting my plan and draft class evaluation.
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