Emmanuel Sanders WR16 vs ADP WR27? (1 Viewer)

I would just like people to enlighten me. Sanders WR finished as the WR16 in my league with horrible QB play from Manning and Osweiler, a run 1st team, and a strong defense. 

But yet he is going as the WR27 in leagues this year. He is only 29 (most WRs don't drop in production until 34 to 36). And Sanchez and P.Lynch can't be almost twice as bad as Manning/Osweiler. (Trust me I watched a few games and highlights) Last yr. Sanders had to adjust to passes that were under thrown, over thrown, and so on a lot.

What am I missing? 

And against better competition in the playoffs. 

Emmanuel Sanders had 230 receiving yards in the 2015 playoffs. Nobody else on the #Broncos had more than 61. https://t.co/VZj5rtNigC

I'm not saying you are wrong but who are the 10 guys you think should be ranked below him?

For me Jordan Mathews seems like an obvious one. I would take Sanders in front of him all day.

This happens every year, good players are bypassed by some because of talking points in the pre-draft lead up.

I think he's good value but the fact that his qb will be Sanchez/lynch/simian rightfully makes people drop him some. 

Then of course there are the youngsters who should improve and his current adp isn't surprising.  Imo he's a low wr2. 

Most WR production doesn't drop until age 34-36? Please show your math

I can pull up that data easily. But got some other things going on too. I'll get it for you. You could go look at Torry Holt and Roddy White to see what age they start dropping in statistical value. Pretty sure it was age 34 to 36. 

jacobo_moses said:

I can pull up that data easily. But got some other things going on too. I'll get it for you. You could go look at Torry Holt and Roddy White to see what age they start dropping in statistical value. Pretty sure it was age 34 to 36. 

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Both Holt and White's last 1,000 yd season came when they were 31.

I think Sanders had a great rapport with Manning, and despite Manning's overall play deteriorating, he still looked for Sanders a lot. I think post-Manning, the offense will be much more run heavy. Thomas is going to be the clear #1 WR, and I think both the pie, and Sanders share of it will be smaller. 

Frankly, WR27 is probably higher than I'd go for Sanders. 

foxco said:

Both Holt and White's last 1,000 yd season came when they were 31.

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White actually had 921 yds and 7 TDs when he was 33 in 2014. So that is still top 20/25 #s. So still my point u get. 

And 2013 and 2015? 

2012 at age 31 was he last great year, so his production dropped perceptantly at age 32, a far cry from production doesn't start until age 34-36

i would argue that generally, it happens before 32.

I don't know the exact age of the drop off of WR's but it's higher than RB's and we no longer have a wall for RB at 30. 

jacobo_moses said:

I can pull up that data easily. But got some other things going on too. I'll get it for you. You could go look at Torry Holt and Roddy White to see what age they start dropping in statistical value. Pretty sure it was age 34 to 36. 

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Holt was, in his prime, getting 1300+ receiving yards, and was, on average, the #7 WR.  He had decent years (but not stud WR years) at the age of 30 & 31; after the age of 31, he never even broke 800 receiving yards/season, and he was retired by 34.

Roddy White just turned 34 last November; and from 2007 until 2012 (when he turned 31), he averaged as the #8 WR.  In the last 3 years (since he turned 31, NOT 34 to 36), he has finished as the 54th FF WR, on average.

You are wrong here, and the two WRs you chose are pretty bad choices.  You could have used guys like TO or Rice to make your point, and you still would have been wrong, as they are the exception, not the rule; but at least those WRs wouldn't have been retired by the age of 34.

Bayhawks said:

Holt was, in his prime, getting 1300+ receiving yards, and was, on average, the #7 WR.  He had decent years (but not stud WR years) at the age of 30 & 31; after the age of 31, he never even broke 800 receiving yards/season, and he was retired by 34.

Roddy White just turned 34 last November; and from 2007 until 2012 (when he turned 31), he averaged as the #8 WR.  In the last 3 years (since he turned 31, NOT 34 to 36), he has finished as the 54th FF WR, on average.

You are wrong here, and the two WRs you chose are pretty bad choices.  You could have used guys like TO or Rice to make your point, and you still would have been wrong, as they are the exception, not the rule; but at least those WRs wouldn't have been retired by the age of 34.

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To be fair he was only "pretty sure".

His point I think though is that receivers can have good years going into their 30s. Not very far into them, I feel like 32 is the year where I start shaking my head purely based on age, but there can still be some good years. Roddy White had around 1300 yards at age 29-31 each year, Brandon Marshall had 1300 at age 29 and 1500 at age 31. Smith Sr. had around 1400 at age 32 and around 1200 at 33. It can happen and Sanders is far from too old. I agree that people are too down on him. He has a definite ceiling, I don't think he could be more than a low WR1 even if things worked out perfectly for him, but he should have a much safer floor than many above him. He's got the skill level to be a first option guy in most offenses in the league but lines up opposite of a guy that other teams have to respect even more than him. I like that

I think we can all agree that Jocobo's statement about the age where WR's start to decline is wrong but that is kind of besides the point, which is that we should not expect a significant drop in production at age 29.

However, the argument that he was WR16 last year so he should be ranked around there this year is flawed because of survivorship bias.   Among the players who finished below him last year are players who missed time due to injuries like Jordy Nelson, Kelvin Benjamin, Alshon Jeffery (probably a few others that I am missing) and some players who just had a bad year for whatever reason like Mike Evans.   Would you rank Sanders above any of those guys?

Not saying he's not undervalued.  I happen to think he is a good value at his current draft position, just not the the extent that the OP does.

travdogg said:

I think Sanders had a great rapport with Manning, and despite Manning's overall play deteriorating, he still looked for Sanders a lot. I think post-Manning, the offense will be much more run heavy. Thomas is going to be the clear #1 WR, and I think both the pie, and Sanders share of it will be smaller. 

Frankly, WR27 is probably higher than I'd go for Sanders. 

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Marauder said:

I think we can all agree that Jocobo's statement about the age where WR's start to decline is wrong but that is kind of besides the point, which is that we should not expect a significant drop in production at age 29.

However, the argument that he was WR16 last year so he should be ranked around there this year is flawed because of survivorship bias.   Among the players who finished below him last year are players who missed time due to injuries like Jordy Nelson, Kelvin Benjamin, Alshon Jeffery (probably a few others that I am missing) and some players who just had a bad year for whatever reason like Mike Evans.   Would you rank Sanders above any of those guys?

Not saying he's not undervalued.  I happen to think he is a good value at his current draft position, just not the the extent that the OP does.

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the 3 you name, plus the fact that Sanders was WR22 per game (although Bryant and Jeffrey are included above him), so WR24 might seem right to start off.

and then, Sanders was WR28 in weeks 10-17 when Oz started.  Again, indicating that his ADP is about right. 

The more I think about it, the more inclined I am to put him down towards WR30ish. A somewhat safer WR30ish than others (compared to Hurns, DJax, Marvin Jones and even Doug Baldwin).  but not close to WR16.

past performance is not guarantee of future results (work quote). Have a owner in one league shopping him hard all off season citing where he finished last year and any qb has to be equal or better than what he went through in 2015. Maybe, but I wouldn't pay more than a 2nd if I needed depth.

Sanders is OK on a win now roster. Tough to get excited about his situation or age. Never a red zone threat. Volume dependent and doubt he gets another 140 targets.

In terms of 30+ year old WRs that I trust, I prefer the physical studs bigger bodied ones (or tough as nails fearless ones like S Smith or Holt)  with great QB play.

I guess my point is how Sanders did in the playoffs, he is only 29, and his qb play will probably be about the same. I just see him as a reliable WR2 in any league you're in. ADPWR27 I would love to be in those leagues he is falling there. 

I just think people don't realize how impressive it is for a WR who is  suppose to be the #2 option on a run first, def heavy team, with mediocre qb play to finish as the WR16 in my 1/2 pt ppr league. And I just don't see much changing to this yr. That is all I'm saying. 

jacobo_moses said:

I guess my point is how Sanders did in the playoffs, he is only 29, and his qb play will probably be about the same. I just see him as a reliable WR2 in any league you're in. ADPWR27 I would love to be in those leagues he is falling there. 

I just think people don't realize how impressive it is for a WR who is  suppose to be the #2 option on a run first, def heavy team, with mediocre qb play to finish as the WR16 in my 1/2 pt ppr league. And I just don't see much changing to this yr. That is all I'm saying. 

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If its impressive for him to finish as a WR2 in your scoring system; that would indicate it's not normal.  If its not normal, than it doesn't make sense to expect him to do it again.

It was impressive when Peyton broke the passing TD record; he didn't do it again.

It was impressive when Can rushed for 14 TDs as a rookie; he hasn't done it again.

Impressive feats are impressive because they are hard.  Because they are hard, they are unlikely to repeated.  So if it Sanders' 2015 was impressive, it stands to reason it will be difficult to repeat.

Bayhawks said:

If its impressive for him to finish as a WR2 in your scoring system; that would indicate it's not normal.  If its not normal, than it doesn't make sense to expect him to do it again.

It was impressive when Peyton broke the passing TD record; he didn't do it again.

It was impressive when Can rushed for 14 TDs as a rookie; he hasn't done it again.

Impressive feats are impressive because they are hard.  Because they are hard, they are unlikely to repeated.  So if it Sanders' 2015 was impressive, it stands to reason it will be difficult to repeat.

It wasn't that impressive. I'm just saying it could be  easily duplicated  by him again.

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I guess my point is how Sanders did in the playoffs, he is only 29, and his qb play will probably be about the same. I just see him as a reliable WR2 in any league you're in. ADPWR27 I would love to be in those leagues he is falling there. 

I just think people don't realize how impressive it is for a WR who is  suppose to be the #2 option on a run first, def heavy team, with mediocre qb play to finish as the WR16 in my 1/2 pt ppr league. And I just don't see much changing to this yr. That is all I'm saying. 

Eric Decker scored even more last year, and is being drafted even later. In both cases, I think it comes down to being a bit wary of a receiver who is the second-best WR on a team without a good QB. Plus, they both got leapfrogged by a lot of higher upside receivers who did not produce as much as them last year, like Dez, Jordy, Kelvin Benjamin, Cobb, Hilton, Evans, and Cooper.

ZWK said:

Plus, they both got leapfrogged by a lot of higher upside receivers who did not produce as much as them last year, like Dez, Jordy, Kelvin Benjamin, Cobb, Hilton, Evans, and Cooper.

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This is why I was asking him to actually name the ten or so guys that shouldn't be ranked ahead of Sanders. We already had this discussion about another receiver but I can't remember which one.

jacobo_moses said:

Impressive feats are impressive because they are hard.  Because they are hard, they are unlikely to repeated.  So if it Sanders' 2015 was impressive, it stands to reason it will be difficult to repeat.

It wasn't that impressive. I'm just saying it could be  easily duplicated  by him again

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Why do you keep changing your words?  First, WRs don't fall off until 34-36.  "Oh wait, that's totally wrong?  I'm just saying finishing as a WR2 with all this stacked against him was an impressive feat. Oh, if it was that impressive a feat its going to be difficult to repeat, huh?  I'm just saying it could easily be duplicated."

He could finish as a WR2 again, but its unlikely.  There are a few WRs ranked ahead of him that I'd have behind him, but he's nowhere near a lock to be WR16 again, as you seem to desperately want to hear.

Marauder said:

I think we can all agree that Jocobo's statement about the age where WR's start to decline is wrong but that is kind of besides the point, which is that we should not expect a significant drop in production at age 29.

However, the argument that he was WR16 last year so he should be ranked around there this year is flawed because of survivorship bias.   Among the players who finished below him last year are players who missed time due to injuries like Jordy Nelson, Kelvin Benjamin, Alshon Jeffery (probably a few others that I am missing) and some players who just had a bad year for whatever reason like Mike Evans.   Would you rank Sanders above any of those guys?

Not saying he's not undervalued.  I happen to think he is a good value at his current draft position, just not the the extent that the OP does.

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Spot on for both bolded points. Guys that should be ranked above Sanders that Sanders finished ahead of due to injury:

Dez Bryant

Jordy Nelson

Alshon Jeffery

Keenan Allen

Kelvin Benjamin

On top of those guys, you've got a few guys with higher ceilings than Sanders being drafted ahead of him or players with improving situations.

Speaking of situations, his situation is unknown and probably worse. Last year DEN QB ranked 22nd in passing fantasy points. I don't expect that to improve. In fact, DT finished WR13 last year and is being drafted as WR13 this year. I feel like he's being overdrafted while Sanders' ADP is closer to reality.

The original post is really a poor man's version of Hurns' situation. He missed a game and played with a sports hernia all year and finished WR14 but his ADP is WR30. I expect some regression in the JAX passing offense, but also a little improvement from health and additional stats from a 16th game this year. His situation is much clearer than Sanders' situation. I honestly don't think Sanders merits discussion. He's right where he belongs. Maybe he stays healthy and a handful of guys ahead of him get injured and he finishes a few spots higher than his ADP, but I don't expect him to put up top 20 points per game stats. That kind of low ceiling doesn't merit a high ADP. And his floor is pretty low. If the DEN rushing attack works, Kubiak will roll with it. And if the new QB locks in on DT then Sanders could see less than 100 targets. I'm not saying either of these will happen, but they easily could.

DexterDew said:

past performance is not guarantee of future results (work quote). Have a owner in one league shopping him hard all off season citing where he finished last year and any qb has to be equal or better than what he went through in 2015. Maybe, but I wouldn't pay more than a 2nd if I needed depth.

Sanders is OK on a win now roster. Tough to get excited about his situation or age. Never a red zone threat. Volume dependent and doubt he gets another 140 targets.

In terms of 30+ year old WRs that I trust, I prefer the physical studs bigger bodied ones (or tough as nails fearless ones like S Smith or Holt)  with great QB play.

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I'm the owner shopping him "hard" this offseason. I really like Sanders, but I own Antonio/Dez/Jeffery/Watkins/DGB/Aiken + 2 high end devy WRs....kinda have a surplus.

The problem with Sanders is the general perception of him. Things like "Peyton made him" "he's not big enough" "didn't do it early in his career" etc. Generally, people don't want to believe that Sanders is very good. Thus he doesn't deserve targets in the future.

2015 season: 76/1135/6 in 15 games. He had 136 targets but only 3 drops  (2.2%). To put this into context, Watkins had a 3.1% drop rate, DT 5.1%, Bmarsh 5.8%, Ted Ginn 10.4%. This tells me despite a large amount of targets, he has good hands.

QB play: Thinking that Peyton made Sanders is the most backwards way of thinking. His arm strength was fading bad the last few years, Sanders has the speed to go deep...not a perfect match.

2015 Peyton 67.9 QB rating, 6.8 Yards per attempt, 59.8%, 9 TD vs 17 INT. Downright horrible! He averaged 1 TD pass per game he started.

2014 Peyton: 101.5 QB rating, 7.9 yards per attempt, 66.2%, 39 TD vs 15 INT. Much better season when you compare it to 2015. However, we remember Peyton's arm starting to drop off badly. Through the 9 games, Peyton averaged 3.2 TDs per game to only 1.42 over the last 7 games. Averaged 323 yards per game over the first 9 games vs 259 yards over the final 7 games. 

-If we combine the only 2 seasons Sanders has been in Denver, he had the "good Peyton" for only 9 games. He's had limp arm Peyton(averaging 1.1 passing TD per game) for 16 games!

-Mark Sanchez has 16 TDs passing in his last 10 starts(1.6 per game), which is actually an upgrade when compared to Peyton's 1.1 over the last 16 games. Now comparing the weapons Sanchez had in Philly vs DT/Sanders, I would expect those numbers to improve. His QB rating the last two years 88.4 and 80.7.

Quite frankly, I find what Sanders was able to accomplish in Denver with poor QB play and DT across from him as amazing. This is the time of year everyone drinks the Koolaid of every young WR is going to hit and all of the vets are sells because they're old. Perfect time of year to buy Sanders. He's played at a very good level for 2 years and I think he could even improve on his numbers.

FF Ninja said:

Spot on for both bolded points. Guys that should be ranked above Sanders that Sanders finished ahead of due to injury:

Dez Bryant

Jordy Nelson

Alshon Jeffery

Keenan Allen

Kelvin Benjamin

On top of those guys, you've got a few guys with higher ceilings than Sanders being drafted ahead of him or players with improving situations.

Speaking of situations, his situation is unknown and probably worse. Last year DEN QB ranked 22nd in passing fantasy points. I don't expect that to improve. In fact, DT finished WR13 last year and is being drafted as WR13 this year. I feel like he's being overdrafted while Sanders' ADP is closer to reality.

The original post is really a poor man's version of Hurns' situation. He missed a game and played with a sports hernia all year and finished WR14 but his ADP is WR30. I expect some regression in the JAX passing offense, but also a little improvement from health and additional stats from a 16th game this year. His situation is much clearer than Sanders' situation. I honestly don't think Sanders merits discussion. He's right where he belongs. Maybe he stays healthy and a handful of guys ahead of him get injured and he finishes a few spots higher than his ADP, but I don't expect him to put up top 20 points per game stats. That kind of low ceiling doesn't merit a high ADP. And his floor is pretty low. If the DEN rushing attack works, Kubiak will roll with it. And if the new QB locks in on DT then Sanders could see less than 100 targets. I'm not saying either of these will happen, but they easily could.

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141 and 136 targets the last two years and now he's going to get less than 100?

"maybe he stays healthy" -He missed 1 game in 2 years

"I don't expect him to put up top 20 points per game stats" -only 5 WRs performed this feat last season....so all you're saying is he's not top 5. But then lead in with "that kind of low ceiling doesn't merit a high ADP" This leaves me confused. So most (98%) WRs don't merit a high ADP then? 

Allen Hurns last 2 years = 115/1708/16. Sanders last 2 years = 177/2539/15.  Julius Thomas>any TE in Denver. Arob is at least equal to DT. Bortles>Denver QB. Denver D was already taking a step back losing Malik Jackson and Danny Travethon. Now Aqib Talib shot himself in the leg and something will happen there. Remember Plaxico went to jail for a year. Von Miller is threatening to hold out. Versus Jacksonville's defense signed Malik Jackson, drafted Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack + get top pick Dante Fowler back from his torn ACL. So how is the situation "much clearer" in Jacksonville for Hurns versus Sanders again?

tdmills said:

141 and 136 targets the last two years and now he's going to get less than 100?

"maybe he stays healthy" -He missed 1 game in 2 years

"I don't expect him to put up top 20 points per game stats" -only 5 WRs performed this feat last season....so all you're saying is he's not top 5. But then lead in with "that kind of low ceiling doesn't merit a high ADP" This leaves me confused. So most (98%) WRs don't merit a high ADP then? 

Allen Hurns last 2 years = 115/1708/16. Sanders last 2 years = 177/2539/15.  Julius Thomas>any TE in Denver. Arob is at least equal to DT. Bortles>Denver QB. Denver D was already taking a step back losing Malik Jackson and Danny Travethon. Now Aqib Talib shot himself in the leg and something will happen there. Remember Plaxico went to jail for a year. Von Miller is threatening to hold out. Versus Jacksonville's defense signed Malik Jackson, drafted Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack + get top pick Dante Fowler back from his torn ACL. So how is the situation "much clearer" in Jacksonville for Hurns versus Sanders again?

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Geez, man... really? Read what I wrote. I was outlining his downside. And I pretty clearly said "I'm not saying either of these will happen, but they easily could." Kubiak is a conservative coach. If he can run and play D, he will. I didn't predict Sanders to get less than 100 but I definitely don't expect him to get over 130 again.

You only quoted half my health comment. The other part of the "maybe" (the clue that there was more to my statement is the word "and"... very sneaky, eh?) was that better FF players get injured and he slips up the rankings like he did last year thanks to the five key injuries I noted.

Wtf are you talking about? Obviously 20 players put up top 20 ppg stats. I think this is a reading comprehension issue again. You must've read that as "put up 20 points" rather than "top 20". Calm down and read slower. I realize you are trying to hype the hell out of a player you are shopping and the overwhelming opinion in this thread is that his value is accurate, but take a breath. It'll be ok.

Hurns was an undrafted rookie. Comparing his first two years in the league to Sanders' last two years in the league is pretty silly. Want to compare their first two years in the league? 115/1708/16 vs. 50/664/4. OMG, Hurns is so much better!1!! I kid.. obviously Sanders was coming off the bench, but just wanted to show how a different arbitrary comparison could paint a different pointless story. The reality of the matter is that Hurns was productive while injured on only 105 targets and will be back in the same situation (although I expect a decrease in passing attempts and passing TDs) and healthy, while Sanders is going into an unknown situation - from QB22 to Sanchez/Lynch/whatever combo. You really think his production is going to go up even with fewer targets? I like Sanders as a player (and think he has at least 4 more good year left), but I can't endorse him in redraft at his ADP considering his 2016 FF situation.

tdmills said:

I'm the owner shopping him "hard" this offseason. I really like Sanders, but I own Antonio/Dez/Jeffery/Watkins/DGB/Aiken + 2 high end devy WRs....kinda have a surplus.

The problem with Sanders is the general perception of him. Things like "Peyton made him" "he's not big enough" "didn't do it early in his career" etc. Generally, people don't want to believe that Sanders is very good. Thus he doesn't deserve targets in the future.

2015 season: 76/1135/6 in 15 games. He had 136 targets but only 3 drops  (2.2%). To put this into context, Watkins had a 3.1% drop rate, DT 5.1%, Bmarsh 5.8%, Ted Ginn 10.4%. This tells me despite a large amount of targets, he has good hands.

QB play: Thinking that Peyton made Sanders is the most backwards way of thinking. His arm strength was fading bad the last few years, Sanders has the speed to go deep...not a perfect match.

2015 Peyton 67.9 QB rating, 6.8 Yards per attempt, 59.8%, 9 TD vs 17 INT. Downright horrible! He averaged 1 TD pass per game he started.

2014 Peyton: 101.5 QB rating, 7.9 yards per attempt, 66.2%, 39 TD vs 15 INT. Much better season when you compare it to 2015. However, we remember Peyton's arm starting to drop off badly. Through the 9 games, Peyton averaged 3.2 TDs per game to only 1.42 over the last 7 games. Averaged 323 yards per game over the first 9 games vs 259 yards over the final 7 games. 

-If we combine the only 2 seasons Sanders has been in Denver, he had the "good Peyton" for only 9 games. He's had limp arm Peyton(averaging 1.1 passing TD per game) for 16 games!

-Mark Sanchez has 16 TDs passing in his last 10 starts(1.6 per game), which is actually an upgrade when compared to Peyton's 1.1 over the last 16 games. Now comparing the weapons Sanchez had in Philly vs DT/Sanders, I would expect those numbers to improve. His QB rating the last two years 88.4 and 80.7.

Quite frankly, I find what Sanders was able to accomplish in Denver with poor QB play and DT across from him as amazing. This is the time of year everyone drinks the Koolaid of every young WR is going to hit and all of the vets are sells because they're old. Perfect time of year to buy Sanders. He's played at a very good level for 2 years and I think he could even improve on his numbers.

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If you really believe all these "selective" stats that you are throwing out there, why don't you hold onto Sanders?  You expect his QB play to be better & you think he could even improve on his numbers (a WR1 in 2014, a WR 2 in 2015), why push so hard to trade him?  If you have such depth at WR, trade someone else, whose perceived value is higher (Dez, Jeffery, or Watkins) & get more in return.  If you truly believed what you are posting-that Sanders is more valuable than people think, that is the smart move.  The fact that you are pushing hard to trade him & desperately trying to convince others of his value suggests that you don't truly believe what you're saying (at least, not all of it).

FF Ninja said:

Geez, man... really? Read what I wrote. I was outlining his downside. And I pretty clearly said "I'm not saying either of these will happen, but they easily could." Kubiak is a conservative coach. If he can run and play D, he will. I didn't predict Sanders to get less than 100 but I definitely don't expect him to get over 130 again.

You only quoted half my health comment. The other part of the "maybe" (the clue that there was more to my statement is the word "and"... very sneaky, eh?) was that better FF players get injured and he slips up the rankings like he did last year thanks to the five key injuries I noted.

Wtf are you talking about? Obviously 20 players put up top 20 ppg stats. I think this is a reading comprehension issue again. You must've read that as "put up 20 points" rather than "top 20". Calm down and read slower. I realize you are trying to hype the hell out of a player you are shopping and the overwhelming opinion in this thread is that his value is accurate, but take a breath. It'll be ok.

Hurns was an undrafted rookie. Comparing his first two years in the league to Sanders' last two years in the league is pretty silly. Want to compare their first two years in the league? 115/1708/16 vs. 50/664/4. OMG, Hurns is so much better!1!! I kid.. obviously Sanders was coming off the bench, but just wanted to show how a different arbitrary comparison could paint a different pointless story. The reality of the matter is that Hurns was productive while injured on only 105 targets and will be back in the same situation (although I expect a decrease in passing attempts and passing TDs) and healthy, while Sanders is going into an unknown situation - from QB22 to Sanchez/Lynch/whatever combo. You really think his production is going to go up even with fewer targets? I like Sanders as a player (and think he has at least 4 more good year left), but I can't endorse him in redraft at his ADP considering his 2016 FF situation.

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Yes, you looked at the worst case side of Sanders and I looked at the other side. 

I read your whole post, but see no reason to site "maybe he stays healthy" and yes I know the context you used. It just seemed out of line for a guy that hasn't missed much time. If you're going to talk about other players health and "if" they stay healthy. Sure, but throwing that in there didn't make much sense.

I did miss the word "top". My bad...stuff happens. It was early in the morning.

Aren't we only caring about the 2016 season for Hurns/Sanders? Why would comparing their last 2 seasons be silly? We're not discussing dynasty value of each player.

Sanders has an "unknown situation" despite being with the same HC that gave him 136 targets in 15 games with an elite defense. This is what puzzles me the most. Sure Peyton/Brock are gone...but how much is he really missing there?(see previous post).

Speaking of Hurns, I like him as well. But that's a different discussion.

Bayhawks said:

If you really believe all these "selective" stats that you are throwing out there, why don't you hold onto Sanders?  You expect his QB play to be better & you think he could even improve on his numbers (a WR1 in 2014, a WR 2 in 2015), why push so hard to trade him?  If you have such depth at WR, trade someone else, whose perceived value is higher (Dez, Jeffery, or Watkins) & get more in return.  If you truly believed what you are posting-that Sanders is more valuable than people think, that is the smart move.  The fact that you are pushing hard to trade him & desperately trying to convince others of his value suggests that you don't truly believe what you're saying (at least, not all of it).

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I personally don't think i'm pushing "hard" (which is why I used quotes) to move only Sanders. Dez/DGB/Aiken are also on the trade block. I've offered up Dez, DGB, and Antonio to other teams as well. I fully expect Sanders to stay on my roster for the 2016 season based on how I value him versus the community. So the narrative that i'm talking him up only to move him is a crap angle. I genuinely really like Sanders' game/value/potential.

What other stats would you want to include then if mine were "selective?"

tdmills said:

I personally don't think i'm pushing "hard" (which is why I used quotes) to move only Sanders. Dez/DGB/Aiken are also on the trade block. I've offered up Dez, DGB, and Antonio to other teams as well. I fully expect Sanders to stay on my roster for the 2016 season based on how I value him versus the community. So the narrative that i'm talking him up only to move him is a crap angle. I genuinely really like Sanders' game/value/potential.

What other stats would you want to include then if mine were "selective?"

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Just un-biased ones, maybe (accurate ones, too):

You said Manning averaged 1.1 TD/game over his 16 games since "his arm failed."  He actually averaged 1.2.  Then you used Sanchez' last 10 games.  Why not his last 16 (an "even" sample size)?  Possibly because if you use his last 16 games, you get an average of 1.3 TD/game, not the 1.6 stat you used?

So when using accurate and equal stats, you get 1.2 TD/game for Manning over his last 16 starts (since he turned from "good Manning") to 1.3 TD/game for Sanchez over his last 16 starts.  Hmm......

tdmills said:

Yes, you looked at the worst case side of Sanders and I looked at the other side. 

I read your whole post, but see no reason to site "maybe he stays healthy" and yes I know the context you used. It just seemed out of line for a guy that hasn't missed much time. If you're going to talk about other players health and "if" they stay healthy. Sure, but throwing that in there didn't make much sense.

I did miss the word "top". My bad...stuff happens. It was early in the morning.

Aren't we only caring about the 2016 season for Hurns/Sanders? Why would comparing their last 2 seasons be silly? We're not discussing dynasty value of each player.

Sanders has an "unknown situation" despite being with the same HC that gave him 136 targets in 15 games with an elite defense. This is what puzzles me the most. Sure Peyton/Brock are gone...but how much is he really missing there?(see previous post).

Speaking of Hurns, I like him as well. But that's a different discussion.

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I wasn't ONLY looking at his worst case scenario. That was just one part of my post and you quoted it like it was my prediction for him on the year.

The part about him staying healthy was only one part of the equation. I expect him to play 16 games next year but for him to surpass better FF players who get injured, his health was a vital part of the equation I was laying out. The bottom line was that Sanders played all 16 games last year, vaulting him past quite a few better FF players. By FBG scoring, he finished WR18 last year. If we look into players that missed multiple games (Dez, Jordy, Alshon, Kelvin, Keenan, Edelman) Sanders slips down the points per game scale probably to close to where his ADP is now.

Comparing Hurns fist two years in the league to Sanders' last two years is silly because it doesn't take into account that Hurns is learning and getting better whereas Sanders is at his peak. Also, you don't think there's a learning curve for undrafted rookies? You really think it's fair to count his rookie year? Additionally, the 2014 JAX offense was horrible. They totally changed the offense (new OC) in 2015 and it made a huge improvement (23.5 ppg vs 15.6 ppg). Finally, Hurns only had 73% of the targets that Sanders had during that span. I expect their target numbers to be much closer in 2016, so looking at their aggregate stats is misleading.

As I already mentioned, the Denver composite QB ranked 22nd in passing fantasy points. Expecting that to increase is very optimistic. They also ranked 12th in passing attempts. I expect that to decrease. As someone very familiar with Kubiak's playcalling, I'll be shocked if they throw the ball more this year unless the defense falls apart. Maybe the defense falls apart and Sanchez has a career year. It is possible. But I'm not betting on it.

He finished WR18 last year and has an ADP of WR31 right now. If everyone had stayed healthy last year, Sanders probably would've finished around WR25. Given the ugly QB situation, I can understand the slight discount this year. Barring the unforeseen Sanchez breakout year, Sanders' ceiling is low-end WR2. You can get Crabtree a round or two later who, IMO, has a much more stable situation and a better chance of putting up WR2 numbers. Neither guy is going to be a WR1, so I don't see a strong case for Sanders over some later drafted players, much less a case to increase his ranking.

So looking at the current ADP, who would you rank Sanders above? Starting at WR19: Cobb, Landry, Edelman, Maclin, Tate, Baldwin, Floyd, Matthews, Parker, Fitzgerald, Decker, Hurns.

Bayhawks said:

Just un-biased ones, maybe (accurate ones, too):

You said Manning averaged 1.1 TD/game over his 16 games since "his arm failed."  He actually averaged 1.2.  Then you used Sanchez' last 10 games.  Why not his last 16 (an "even" sample size)?  Possibly because if you use his last 16 games, you get an average of 1.3 TD/game, not the 1.6 stat you used?

So when using accurate and equal stats, you get 1.2 TD/game for Manning over his last 16 starts (since he turned from "good Manning") to 1.3 TD/game for Sanchez over his last 16 starts.  Hmm......

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Actually no, but we can go through and count if you'd like.

16) week 16 vs SD = 0 TD

15) week 9 vs KC = 0 TD vs 4 INT

14) wk 8 vs Ind = 2 TD

13) wk 7 vs GB = 0 TD

12) wk 6 vs Cle = 1 TD

11) wk 5 vs Oak = 0 TD

10) wk 4 vs Min = 1 TD

9) wk 3 vs Det = 2 Det

8) wk 2 vs KC = 3 TD

7) wk 1 vs Bal = 0 TD

(looking at Peyton's regular season stats anywhere...2015 = 9 passing TDs)

6) wk 16(2014) vs Oak = 0 TD

5) wk 15 vs Cin = 2 TD

4) wk 14 vs SD = 1 TD

3) wk 13 vs Buf = 0 TD

2) wk 12 vs KC = 2 TD

1) wk 11 vs Mia = 4 TD

9 TD in 2015 + 9 TD in 2014 = 18.

18/16 = 1.125 Passing TD per game.

If you wanted to get technical, Peyton threw for 2 TD in his 3 playoff games. Which would make the ratio 14 TD in 16 games, which is below 1 per game.

I didn't use Sanchez' 2013 statistics because stats from 3 years ago...stretching it IMO. But even so...1.3 or 1.6 ratio for Sanchez is still better than Peyton's 1.1. Hence reinforcing my point.

Over Peyton's last 16 regular season starts, the ratio is still 19 TD vs 16 games. 1.18. So I guess if you round, sure. But what the heck are you splitting hairs about? That's horrible...and still shows Peyton didn't make Sanders into anything. 

ZWK said:

Eric Decker scored even more last year, and is being drafted even later. In both cases, I think it comes down to being a bit wary of a receiver who is the second-best WR on a team without a good QB. Plus, they both got leapfrogged by a lot of higher upside receivers who did not produce as much as them last year, like Dez, Jordy, Kelvin Benjamin, Cobb, Hilton, Evans, and Cooper.

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This is probably why my dynasty team with Sanders and Decker did so well last year. They are exactly the kind of WR I like.  I have a lot of talent around them too but I love adding productive WR that seem to get undervalued every year.  My personal view is that DT and Sanders are being generally discounted too much because Manning is gone.  

The good old fashioned mistake everyone always makes. Picking upside over actual likely production. Most have more confidence in their gut than they really should.
Saying Sanders got leapfrogged by upside is hopes and dreams running your team. I use upside as a tie breaker, not to make my predictions. If as many people passed Sanders as you say, you might be inflating a lot of those players projected production. Zeke has the upside to be the best RB, does that mean that is his likely production?

I guess someone needs to decide if Manning had 19 or 18 TD's in his last 16 games so we can move on with this silly debate between 1.125 and 1.18. 

tdmills said:

Actually no, but we can go through and count if you'd like.

16) week 16 vs SD = 0 TD

15) week 9 vs KC = 0 TD vs 4 INT

14) wk 8 vs Ind = 2 TD

13) wk 7 vs GB = 0 TD

12) wk 6 vs Cle = 1 TD

11) wk 5 vs Oak = 0 TD

10) wk 4 vs Min = 1 TD

9) wk 3 vs Det = 2 Det

8) wk 2 vs KC = 3 TD

7) wk 1 vs Bal = 0 TD

(looking at Peyton's regular season stats anywhere...2015 = 9 passing TDs)

6) wk 16(2014) vs Oak = 0 TD

5) wk 15 vs Cin = 2 TD

4) wk 14 vs SD = 1 TD

3) wk 13 vs Buf = 0 TD

2) wk 12 vs KC = 2 TD

1) wk 11 vs Mia = 4 TD

9 TD in 2015 + 9 TD in 2014 = 18.

18/16 = 1.125 Passing TD per game.

If you wanted to get technical, Peyton threw for 2 TD in his 3 playoff games. Which would make the ratio 14 TD in 16 games, which is below 1 per game.

I didn't use Sanchez' 2013 statistics because stats from 3 years ago...stretching it IMO. But even so...1.3 or 1.6 ratio for Sanchez is still better than Peyton's 1.1. Hence reinforcing my point.

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We can go through and count, if you'd like, but again, try to be accurate.  Manning didn't start week 16 v SD.  His 16th start would have been against StL in 2014=389 yards, 1 TD.  19 TDs in 16 starts=1.19 TD/game, and obviously you round up; if it was 1.14, you'd round down.

And the fact that you have to go back 3 years to find 16 starts for Sanchez negates your argument that Sanders' QB situation isn't worse.  He hasn't started 16 games in the last 2 years shows that he isn't an NFL-caliber starting QB; i.e.-inferior QB situation this year.

But keep trying to convince yourself (and possible trade partners) that Sanders is a great WR2.  Maybe you'll get someone to believe it.