Slow news cycle, feels a lot longer then a week since the SB, go to mulling some things over since not much to discuss.
I'm thinking for most people the 2022 class exceeded expectations and also for most people the 2023 class looks disappointing based on earlier expectations. Maybe that's how it ends up, the positional strengths of both classes are certainly different, but again just wanted to compare the two at similar points so that maybe we keep an open mind on how deep this class might actually be as well as maybe a flimsy guide for how to value picks.
For this purpose I'm going to use Dane Brugler's top 100 list. For 2022 I'll use the one he put out in February 15th of 2022 and for the 2023 class I'll be using the one he put out February 14th of 2023.
These are from The Athletic so behind a paywall if you are not subscribed but here are the links:
Brugler 2022 top 100 pre-combine
Brugler 2023 top 100 pre-combine
So let's compare and I'll add a few caveats before we do.
Top 100 is relative, relative to other positions. That I can't really account for so if the non-fantasy related portions of a draft are weak or strong that does matter, but I can't really adjust for that-this is just a ballpark guide. Also I view Brugler as best media scout going-as in no actual NFL scouting experience, but he has his share of misses, which is par for the course. I'm all for doing a similar review if anyone has credible 2022/2023 lists from other sources post it. His was just easy to obtain to cross reference both classes and again I think he's pretty good and does get a lot of feedback from NFL teams.
QB's:
2022: 6 in his top 100. 2 1's(barely coming in at 31,32), 3 seconds and one in third round comp range. Average ranking of the 7 was 39.4.
2023: 4 in his top 100, all 1's with an average ranking of 8.5
Commentary: he whiffed badly last year, the league was lower on the QB's then he had them which I think most analyst whiffed on. I'm sure he thought like most that the NFL would push up mediocore QB's but they were not biting. But with QB's no one really cares about depth for fantasy purposes and this class looks considerably stronger at the top with 4 QB's his top 14 vs his highest last year at 31.
RB's:
2022: 5 in top 100, 3 projected as second round picks, the other two in last of the third round range with average ranking of the 5 as 67.6
2023: 10 in top 100, 2 '1s, a two, and 7 thirds. Average ranking of the 10 is 63.1.
Commentary: Those top 10 RB's making Brugler's list don't even include Tucker or McBride who various people have inside their top 5. Some people consider a RB who goes in first 3 rounds as a "premium pick", I have tended to cut that off as around pick 75 but this year some more grace might be given as I think the depth works against them. But that he can omit some of the RB's he did and still have 10 RB's AVERAGE out to being late seconds speaks to the incredible depth of this class! Last year the WR's pushed back the second tier of RB's which created one of the deeper looking RB draft classes in round two of my rookie drafts last year I could recall. This year I expect even more but in this case it won't be because WR's pushed a bunch of them into round two, just the depth spilling over. Most of my drafts, all non-SF so standard PPR, had 3 RB's chosen in round one. That number should spike and still leave behind a rich looking second round, my guess is the richest looking one in the slightly over 10 years I've been playing dynasty.
WR's:
2022- 14 in his top 100, 6 firsts, 2 seconds, 6 thirds. Average ranking of the 6 chosen in round one was 19.5, average ranking of all 14 was 49.42
2023: 13 in his top 100, 4 firsts, 3 seconds, 5 thirds and one in third round comp pick range. Average ranking of the 4 firsts was 23.25, average ranking of all 13 was 56.7
Summary: last year looks in hindsight like a very strong WR year but perhaps it should have looked that way a lot earlier. It's were most agree we are seeing a drop off in the draft and we are, it's the one position out of these 4 we that will look worse compared to last year but at the same time it does not look that terrible and has a solid amount of first/second round rookie draft candidates.
TE:
2022: 4 in his top 100 but highest was player 60. Overall 2 that ranked in second round range, the other two in third and average ranking of the 4 was 68.
2023: 7 in his top 100, the 6th ranked one was almost as high as last years top ranked one checking in at 61. All in all 4 were ranked in first round range, two more in second and combined ranking of those 6 was player 36.6. The 7th was player 100 so in third round comp range and he dragged the overall of the 7 TE's to a 45.7
Summary: this means very little to leagues that don't require a TE and not huge for those non TE premium leagues. For me most of my leagues are TE premium and while TE's have historically been rough early round investments I think in that style of league we'll going to see a lot go early. Maybe picking a TE early is not for you but in this format you'll still benefit from the class because they will push some players back to you. My guess is you'll see 4-6 TE's make up top 24 picks in TE premium leagues.
My conclusion when looking at both of these is this years class looks like it's going to abolish last years class at 3 of the 4 positions. The 4th position is WR and that's the one area that the 2022 projected class wins but if we are talking about how they were projected at this time the gap was not huge and smaller then the gap between any of the other 3 positions. I think some of us might have underrated the quailty of last years WR class but at the same time anyone who was saying the 2022 class projected considerably weaker then the 2023 class projected does not look wrong. I mentioned earlier this might be a flimsy guide to how to value draft picks. This does not really change how I feel about picks in the early to middle round one range, but it sure makes me put a higher regard on seconds and early thirds, especially in TE premium leagues.
I'm thinking for most people the 2022 class exceeded expectations and also for most people the 2023 class looks disappointing based on earlier expectations. Maybe that's how it ends up, the positional strengths of both classes are certainly different, but again just wanted to compare the two at similar points so that maybe we keep an open mind on how deep this class might actually be as well as maybe a flimsy guide for how to value picks.
For this purpose I'm going to use Dane Brugler's top 100 list. For 2022 I'll use the one he put out in February 15th of 2022 and for the 2023 class I'll be using the one he put out February 14th of 2023.
These are from The Athletic so behind a paywall if you are not subscribed but here are the links:
Brugler 2022 top 100 pre-combine
Brugler 2023 top 100 pre-combine
So let's compare and I'll add a few caveats before we do.
Top 100 is relative, relative to other positions. That I can't really account for so if the non-fantasy related portions of a draft are weak or strong that does matter, but I can't really adjust for that-this is just a ballpark guide. Also I view Brugler as best media scout going-as in no actual NFL scouting experience, but he has his share of misses, which is par for the course. I'm all for doing a similar review if anyone has credible 2022/2023 lists from other sources post it. His was just easy to obtain to cross reference both classes and again I think he's pretty good and does get a lot of feedback from NFL teams.
QB's:
2022: 6 in his top 100. 2 1's(barely coming in at 31,32), 3 seconds and one in third round comp range. Average ranking of the 7 was 39.4.
2023: 4 in his top 100, all 1's with an average ranking of 8.5
Commentary: he whiffed badly last year, the league was lower on the QB's then he had them which I think most analyst whiffed on. I'm sure he thought like most that the NFL would push up mediocore QB's but they were not biting. But with QB's no one really cares about depth for fantasy purposes and this class looks considerably stronger at the top with 4 QB's his top 14 vs his highest last year at 31.
RB's:
2022: 5 in top 100, 3 projected as second round picks, the other two in last of the third round range with average ranking of the 5 as 67.6
2023: 10 in top 100, 2 '1s, a two, and 7 thirds. Average ranking of the 10 is 63.1.
Commentary: Those top 10 RB's making Brugler's list don't even include Tucker or McBride who various people have inside their top 5. Some people consider a RB who goes in first 3 rounds as a "premium pick", I have tended to cut that off as around pick 75 but this year some more grace might be given as I think the depth works against them. But that he can omit some of the RB's he did and still have 10 RB's AVERAGE out to being late seconds speaks to the incredible depth of this class! Last year the WR's pushed back the second tier of RB's which created one of the deeper looking RB draft classes in round two of my rookie drafts last year I could recall. This year I expect even more but in this case it won't be because WR's pushed a bunch of them into round two, just the depth spilling over. Most of my drafts, all non-SF so standard PPR, had 3 RB's chosen in round one. That number should spike and still leave behind a rich looking second round, my guess is the richest looking one in the slightly over 10 years I've been playing dynasty.
WR's:
2022- 14 in his top 100, 6 firsts, 2 seconds, 6 thirds. Average ranking of the 6 chosen in round one was 19.5, average ranking of all 14 was 49.42
2023: 13 in his top 100, 4 firsts, 3 seconds, 5 thirds and one in third round comp pick range. Average ranking of the 4 firsts was 23.25, average ranking of all 13 was 56.7
Summary: last year looks in hindsight like a very strong WR year but perhaps it should have looked that way a lot earlier. It's were most agree we are seeing a drop off in the draft and we are, it's the one position out of these 4 we that will look worse compared to last year but at the same time it does not look that terrible and has a solid amount of first/second round rookie draft candidates.
TE:
2022: 4 in his top 100 but highest was player 60. Overall 2 that ranked in second round range, the other two in third and average ranking of the 4 was 68.
2023: 7 in his top 100, the 6th ranked one was almost as high as last years top ranked one checking in at 61. All in all 4 were ranked in first round range, two more in second and combined ranking of those 6 was player 36.6. The 7th was player 100 so in third round comp range and he dragged the overall of the 7 TE's to a 45.7
Summary: this means very little to leagues that don't require a TE and not huge for those non TE premium leagues. For me most of my leagues are TE premium and while TE's have historically been rough early round investments I think in that style of league we'll going to see a lot go early. Maybe picking a TE early is not for you but in this format you'll still benefit from the class because they will push some players back to you. My guess is you'll see 4-6 TE's make up top 24 picks in TE premium leagues.
My conclusion when looking at both of these is this years class looks like it's going to abolish last years class at 3 of the 4 positions. The 4th position is WR and that's the one area that the 2022 projected class wins but if we are talking about how they were projected at this time the gap was not huge and smaller then the gap between any of the other 3 positions. I think some of us might have underrated the quailty of last years WR class but at the same time anyone who was saying the 2022 class projected considerably weaker then the 2023 class projected does not look wrong. I mentioned earlier this might be a flimsy guide to how to value draft picks. This does not really change how I feel about picks in the early to middle round one range, but it sure makes me put a higher regard on seconds and early thirds, especially in TE premium leagues.
