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Hoosier16

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I've just finished reading the eBook and have a few questions for the staff or anyone else who may know the answers.

Dodds wrote a section on heuristics. Are these built into his projections? For example, does a RB get an additional adjustment for being a home favorite?If not, wouldn't that make the projections better? I realize that by starting with Vegas O/U and implied scores builds a little of that into the projections but it seems like his study was done using his projections, applying those filters after.

Second, are there any plans to add variance to the stats? Having a floor and ceiling based upon historical variance for each player or matchup would seem to be very helpful in construction GPP versus cash games. It could be two more options added to the points, value, and H value options.

 

Thanks.

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I do projections for baseball, but it's not worth the effort for football because good projections are so readily available (especially here).

That said, projections are predicated on the Vegas lines. There is not an additional adjustment for being a home favorite because that aspect is presumably already 'baked into' the line that Vegas releases. I'll let Dodds speak for himself on how much he sways from his model, but I've heard him say that he has subsequently tweaked a player's projections based on gut feeling about their individual matchup. My personal thinking is that we should let projections guide our thinking, but we need to subsequently use our own analyses to make tie-breaker decisions on players who are closely projected.

For your subsequent question, I think the projectionists avoid this in NFL because historical influences are so dramatically variable. For example, Mike Evans is seeing ridiculous volume this year since VJax went on the IR; if you were to use this season as a guideline for his ceiling projections next year, you'd probably be quite a distance off due to the fact that the Bucs won't be rolling out Adam Humphries across from him every game in 2017. You can go through the entire league and come up with similar scenarios where player performance is affected by personnel around them, ultimately leading to the same conclusion: It's tough to establish a floor/ceiling value on a player based on past performances because of the litany of factors that account for those numbers (i.e., surrounding cast, coaching changes, strength of opponents, win/loss record, weather conditions, etc).

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DD recently said that he uses his Game Predictor for NFL total scores instead of the Vegas line because they're more accurate in his opinion.  He also said that he doesn't back check to see if he was right.  I guess I am a little surprised by that unless he has years of data proving his belief.  

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Thanks for the responses. My thought on the heuristics was that if they were truly somewhat predictive based upon his current stats, then it would seem that making further adjustments based upon that would further improve the projections.

I still think having floor and ceiling projections would be beneficial. I don't really understand why they would be any worse then the projections themselves. All those problems listed affect the average projection as much as they would affect floors and ceilings.

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I know this is an old thread. I, too could use some guidance in trying to determine variance to try to decide if the player is a better suited fit for GPP or cash games.

Something like "realistic ceiling / floor" Like the ceiling with at least a 5-10% probability of happening - i realize that every RB for example has a theoretical ceiling of say 40 points, but that may be more realistic for say Kareem Hunt vs Terrance West, just for example.

Or, alternatively, a stat like "percent chance to hit tournament value / 3x"

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I remember now about 2 years ago I was wondering this same thing. I found an old thread of mine where I said this:

_____________________________________________

I was reading the "Consensus Value Plays" and saw this

Danny Tuccitto - Cook has a top-ranked 60.8% chance of achieving GPP value and a second-ranked 67.3% chance of achieving cash value. (Thu 4:37 AM)

Is there a place I can get those numbers for all players?

_____________________________________________

Still wondering...

 

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On 10/6/2017 at 11:18 AM, Charybdis said:

I remember now about 2 years ago I was wondering this same thing. I found an old thread of mine where I said this:

_____________________________________________

I was reading the "Consensus Value Plays" and saw this

Danny Tuccitto - Cook has a top-ranked 60.8% chance of achieving GPP value and a second-ranked 67.3% chance of achieving cash value. (Thu 4:37 AM)

Is there a place I can get those numbers for all players?

_____________________________________________

Still wondering...

 

Fantasylabs. 4for4.

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My recommendation would be to email Danny directly and ask him where/how he sources those projections.

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