Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
  • 0
OldTomMesko

Trade Involving OBJ and 1.01

Question

12 team PPR. QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, FLEX. IDP. 

Current relevant roster: 

RB: Bernard, Sproles, Thompson, Michael. 

WR: Hilton, Landry, Crabtree, DeSean, Stills, Enunwa, Woods. 

Picks: 1.01, 1.02, 1.05, 1.11, three 3rds, three 4ths.

I have been offered OBJ and Ameer Abdullah for my Landry, 1.01, and 1.05.

Part of my gut says to take it. I like the overall value. But at the same time, I'm giving up a lot of draft capital to primarily upgrade a strength. The reason I accumulated these picks was to get some much needed RB help from this class. I need RB help, a lot, and I don't know that this helps that. But ugh I want OBJ. So...

Do I take the deal as is? 

Do I try to see if he will drop the 1.05 from the deal? Do I offer 1.11 in exchange for dropping 1.05?

Do I just sit still until after the NFL draft and the real value of these picks is more apparent? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

19 answers to this question

Recommended Posts

  • 0

I prefer your final described option, since you hold quite a few assets going into the NFL draft later this month with a solid plan in place to remedy the major weakness of your franchise.  While OBJ is a nice dynasty asset, ownership of same does not gurantee a competitive team coming out of this season's rookie draft. You are basically "in the proverbial driver's seat" at this point in time, and any major dilution/shinkage of these 1st, 2nd, and 5th draft picks plus other choice positional players you roster will not really enhance your position from my perspective. I don't see the liability in waiting - other than  perhaps the other owner decides to modify his demands somehow which doesn't really impact your basic planning.  So, I recommend waiting, and scouting other potential player options if the NFL draft happens to turn out to be a major significant floperoo - just made that word up.

Good luck with whatever decisions you make in the coming remainder of April, and beyond.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

I would hold with what you have.

First, as you stated, you have definite need at RB with (currently) zero starters there.

Second, as you get closer to the draft, you might get a better offer.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

I definitely wait at this point.  I think that is too much to give up based on your roster construction.  As you stated you really need RB help and in PPR Landry isn't a bad piece to have.  The value of the picks will only increase as you get closer to the draft and the "shiny new toy" affect starts hitting other owners.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

I would keep the picks and Landry.  IMO, too much value on the picks side and with the 3 of the first 5 picks, you can get 2 RBs and a WR which could help you immediately.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0
Quote

The reason I accumulated these picks was to get some much needed RB help from this class

Trust your instincts and at least wait until after the draft as you in all probability still be able to do this deal then.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0
On 4/7/2017 at 9:23 AM, Spike said:

I would hold with what you have.

First, as you stated, you have definite need at RB with (currently) zero starters there.

Second, as you get closer to the draft, you might get a better offer.

This is great advice. Tell your partner that you are intrigued, but want the NFL draft to play out before you make a move.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

It's not a bad offer, but given your team makeup, you can't take that deal.  I would agree with Spike, wait until the draft and the 1.01 pick could skyrocket in value.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0
On 4/9/2017 at 5:32 PM, smbkrypt24 said:

I would take it.  I have OBJ as number 1 dynasty asset.  Im not completely sold on fournette

 

You might be right about OBJ being the top dynasty asset.  But he isn't worth Landry, the 1.1 and the 1.5.  Abdullah not a factor here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

Your major need is at running back. You can't let that blind you. Your team as is will struggle to win many games. Your team could possibly lock down three legit running backs if you keep your picks... (Fournette, Cook, McCaffery, Mixon). That would significantly turn your outlook around. Hold tight, at least until after the draft. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

I might offer Landry, the 1.5 and the 1.11 for OBJ.  Keep the first two picks and fill your glaring hole at RB.

He might be looking at Landry, Mixon and Howard depending on the league.  He has to be comfortable with his draft picks but I think this is more balanced.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

Try and make a move similar to what I did. I also owned the 1.1 and 1.2, 6&7. I ended up pushing #2, moving down to 4 and acquiring Sammy Watkins. 

 

You obviously need RB. As stands I'd say take Fournette/Davis and BPA and 5&11 looking at your team. (Definitely consider a TE if you need one this year)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0
On 4/12/2017 at 2:24 AM, East Bay Rounder said:

I'd counter with replacing the 1.05 with the 1.11... you'd still get one if not two RBs in the draft and get the #1 WR in fantasy.

I'd try and do this.  Maybe also include one of your worse RBs.

OBJ, Abdullah -> Landry, 1.01, 1.11, RB

Seems better to me. 1.02 and 1.05 should have great RBs available.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

When you can only start 3 WRs max, it lessens the value of all the WRs in comparison to other positions. 

I'd just stick with the picks and draft 3 of the top 4 RBs. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

From a pure trade value perspective I do not consider it out of line for the OBJ owner to ask that for him. I wouldn't be willing to pay that much for OBJ unless the rest of my roster was already stacked and I could afford to take the loss. I don't think your team is there yet.

Over the last 3 seasons (career stats) the difference in points per game between noodle head and Landry is 7 points. Pretty huge. Landry has performed as a solid WR two for fantasy in your scoring format though. He is also a very good player.

Using Mike Clays ranking Jarvis Landry is the 29th overall player. I think many drafted might select these rookies ahead of Landry, but looking at this draft pick value chart the 1.01 rookie pick is worth pick 30 in a start up, so Landry is similar value to pick 1.01 Clays list is for standard scoring leagues, Landry is worth more in PPR.

So this is similar to giving two 1st overall draft picks and a 5th overall pick in a draft class that seems to have a clear top five players for fantasy, although there may possibly be 12 good fantasy players from this draft, without knowing which of those will bust or fail to reach that kind of upside.

It is difficult to say what a fair price is for OBJ because you cannot really upgrade any further than him in the format right now.

I like Ameer Abdullah but Theo Riddick is not going away. Ameer does not make Clays top 240 list. He isn't worth very much right now. I think he might be undervalued in fact, but there are good reasons for that.

I think this guy is trying to get pick 1.05 for Ameer, which is pushing it, because Landry and the 1st overall pick are worth enough on their own. Not sure what your interest level is for Ameer.

I like the suggestion of countering Landry pick 1.05 and pick 1.11 that still is likely paying too much for OBJ though.

Considering your roster which is pretty strong at WR already (not that there isn't always room for one more) I think you are better off just keeping the picks. If your team was a bit stronger than it currently is I could see overpaying to upgrade. I don't think you can afford to do that at this time though.

More offers, and hopefully better ones to come in the days ahead.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

IMO Landry and 1.01 is a lot to pay for any player, including Beckham (Abdullah has no real value compared to the other pieces in the deal).  I would take 1.05 out entirely and that would be the limit of what I would be willing to give.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

In my mind Beckham is the #1 Dynasty asset but on the other hand take a look at this past year (yeah - only one year) at how many more points the top 3 or 4 RB's put up compared to best WR. WR is lower risk injury but top RB's bring a ton or points.  With a 1, 2, 5 pick position you are holding a lot of cards. Wait for the NFL draft and see who lands where - you will have a more clear idea. One or two of those top RB's lands with Oakland, Green Bay, or even the Skins and you have a relatively low risk high reward bet - especially if two of them fall to great spots. Plus everyone will be salivating - you might get a lesser player (Julio, Evans, M Thomas) for fewer picks on your side. You are in the drivers seat. Wish I was in your position. Time is on your side and no reason to wait. Maybe the guy with OBJ covets your picks more than you know and if he doesn't you are not a bad position even if this trade does not go through.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Answer this question...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.