Do I keep Rodgers?? (1 Viewer)

Standard scoring league. 1/25yd pass, 1/10yd rush/reception  4pt PaTD 6pt RuReTD

We do Auction draft but have an option to keep a player (for free) or to get a free pick in first round.

If I choose not to keep a player, I will have last pick in a Free agent draft before our auction draft begins.

The only player I would consider keeping is Aaron Rodgers, but I know the draw backs of have a QB as a keeper, but its Aaron Rodgers.  I've run though a couple of mock scenarios and if I don't keep Rodgers my best choices when my tun come will be some second/third tier RBs like Murray, Ajaya, and Gurley.  Second tier QB like Luck, Brees or Ryan and some first tier WR like Beckham, Jones, Evans or Nelson.

I'm pretty sure Rodgers will be piked up by someone before my turn.  Given the abovoe my choice will be to Keep Rodgers or pick up a one of the top tier WR's.  If a couple of those are drafted or kept, it could free up RB;s like Freeman or Howard. 

It's going to be a few weeks bore I need to make a decision, but any input is gratly appreciated.

Leave a link to your question and I will see if I can help.

You need to provide more information.

how many teams in your league?  What would rodgers cost be?  Who else could you keep instead?  

Your situation is very confusing.  You have an auction but you can get a first round pick if you don't keep anyone?  If you don't keep someone you get last pick in the draft.  What happens if you keep someone?  What pick do you get then?

Keeping a QB doesn't necessarily have any drawbacks.  It all depends on your other options and at what cost.  Your description of your draft is very confusing and you really haven't given enough information to figure out the cost of keeping Rodgers vs a different player (and who that may be) or what the advantage would be to not keep anyone vs the disadvantage of keeping a player. 

A little more information on who your system works would help us provide much better advice.   

Here's a bit more info:

12 teams 14 player roster $100 Auction budget (for 13 players)

Sorry about confusion, but let me try to explain.

Basically a "reverse snake" where starting with last years SB winner, and in first to worst order of last year's record each team one at a time is offered an opportunity to keep a player from their week 14 roster.  They also have option to not keep a player. Once we have reached the final team, we then go back through in worst to first order through the teams that decided not to keep a player to get a free pick from any available free agent..

For example SB winner keeps a player, as does SB loser, then team with next best record (3) keeps no one,  teams 4,5,6,9, 10 keep a player, 7 and 12 keep no one.  Then starting with team 12 followed by 12,7 and 3 select a free agent.  I'm team 3.  So I'm one of the first three that needs to decide if I want and who to keep and I'm projecting to be the last to pick a free agent if I didn't keep anyone amusing lat year's SB teams keep a player.

Rodgers will probably not be available when my turn comes as will most likely Brady.  There is a big drop in VBD value between Rodgers and Brady and then another big drop to QB3.  A

#1 QB with Rodgers VBD value I believe would go for about $30

So it appears the idea is to keep the player you believe will cost the most on the open market in auction.  Essentially you get one "free" player either by keeping him or drafting him.  So I would figure out which player will go for the highest auction price and take him.  That saves you the most money and allows you to spend it elsewhere. 

You mentioned Rodgers would go for about $30 but what would the elite WR's that you believe will be available for you if you don't keep Rodgers?  I would like to find the biggest value and keep that piece. 

Is this a 14 or 12 team league?  You stated 12 team but then your numbered example when to 14.  That probably makes a difference in deciding on keeping a QB or not.  There may be a bit more competition for QB's driving up their price in a 14 team league.   

BlueMeanie said:

Here's a bit more info:

12 teams 14 player roster $100 Auction budget (for 13 players)

Sorry about confusion, but let me try to explain.

Basically a "reverse snake" where starting with last years SB winner, and in first to worst order of last year's record each team one at a time is offered an opportunity to keep a player from their week 14 roster.  They also have option to not keep a player. Once we have reached the final team, we then go back through in worst to first order through the teams that decided not to keep a player to get a free pick from any available free agent..

For example SB winner keeps a player, as does SB loser, then team with next best record (3) keeps no one,  teams 4,5,6,9, 10 keep a player, 7,12,13 and 14 keep no one.  Then starting with team 14 followed by 13,12,7 and 3 select a free agent.  I'm team 3.  So I'm one of the first three that needs to decide if I want and who to keep and I'm projecting to be the last to pick a free agent if I didn't keep anyone amusing lat year's SB teams keep a player.

Rodgers will probably not be available when my turn comes as will most likely Brady.  There is a big drop in VBD value between Rodgers and Brady and then another big drop to QB3.  A

#1 QB with Rodgers VBD value I believe would go for about $30

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Huh?  This isn't making any sense.

Gally said:

So it appears the idea is to keep the player you believe will cost the most on the open market in auction.  Essentially you get one "free" player either by keeping him or drafting him.  So I would figure out which player will go for the highest auction price and take him.  That saves you the most money and allows you to spend it elsewhere. 

You mentioned Rodgers would go for about $30 but what would the elite WR's that you believe will be available for you if you don't keep Rodgers?  I would like to find the biggest value and keep that piece. 

Is this a 14 or 12 team league?  You stated 12 team but then your numbered example when to 14.  That probably makes a difference in deciding on keeping a QB or not.  There may be a bit more competition for QB's driving up their price in a 14 team league.   

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Your first statement is essentially true. I believe my choice comes down to Drafting Rodgers or selecting at worst a WR3 (Julio??) or  a RB7 or so (Freeman or Murray maybe) 

Sorry, it is a 12 team league.

WR3 probably in the $30 range also Since at best RB7 would most likely be available he will aslo go in the $30 range.  

What it comes down to is a QB1 (by far) better than a WR3 or RB7

I see no reason to keep Rodgers. Essentially the best 12 players are either drafted or kept, and Rodgers is not a top-12 player in my opinion. Of course, i'd also disagree that he is BY FAR the best QB but that is another discussion.

travdogg said:

I see no reason to keep Rodgers. Essentially the best 12 players are either drafted or kept, and Rodgers is not a top-12 player in my opinion. Of course, i'd also disagree that he is BY FAR the best QB but that is another discussion.

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Appreciate the input, but just about every top 200 list I've seen and including my own VBD calculations Rodgers shows up in the top 12 overall nearly 90% of the time.  Brady is second, but barely makes Top 20 on average. 

BlueMeanie said:

Your first statement is essentially true. I believe my choice comes down to Drafting Rodgers or selecting at worst a WR3 (Julio??) or  a RB7 or so (Freeman or Murray maybe) 

Sorry, it is a 12 team league.

WR3 probably in the $30 range also Since at best RB7 would most likely be available he will aslo go in the $30 range.  

What it comes down to is a QB1 (by far) better than a WR3 or RB7

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If you are saying that Rodgers, Julio, and Freeman will go for about the same dollar value it comes down to positional scarcity.  What positions are the other 11 players that will be kept.  If no other qb' s will be kept then I think I let rodgers go.  If 4 other qb's will be kept then Rodgers is probably the choice for me - provided the dollar value for him will be the same as julio

Gally said:

If you are saying that Rodgers, Julio, and Freeman will go for about the same dollar value it comes down to positional scarcity.  What positions are the other 11 players that will be kept.  If no other qb' s will be kept then I think I let rodgers go.  If 4 other qb's will be kept then Rodgers is probably the choice for me - provided the dollar value for him will be the same as julio

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I agree.  Since I have to make a decision to keep Rodgers early in the process and get my pick basically last in the process, it looks like, from the various scenarios I've looked at that Julio and/or Beckham might still be available to me as well a Freeman and/or  possibly Howard.  I believe Rodgers will be taken ahead of me, but who knows he might be there just to screw with me.  I'm now leaning toward not keeping anyone and hope more choices will be between a RB7/8 or better, WR3/4 or QB1 if Rodgers is still available. 

Appreciate the insight. Thanks

BlueMeanie said:

I agree.  Since I have to make a decision to keep Rodgers early in the process and get my pick basically last in the process, it looks like, from the various scenarios I've looked at that Julio and/or Beckham might still be available to me as well a Freeman and/or  possibly Howard.  I believe Rodgers will be taken ahead of me, but who knows he might be there just to screw with me.  I'm now leaning toward not keeping anyone and hope more choices will be between a RB7/8 or better, WR3/4 or QB1 if Rodgers is still available. 

Appreciate the insight. Thanks

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Assuming the top 2 teams have very good keepers, the question is basically Aaron Rodgers or the 1.12. 

According to ADP, Rodgers is going 18th overall. http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/adp.php

So from that perspective at least, guys like Howard, Murray, Jordy, etc. are viewed as more valuable than Rodgers. 

But it also comes down to your personal knowledge of the league auction tendencies and how much you want to invest in QB. If you think you can get a decent QB at a fair price in the auction, it's easier to swap Rodgers for a top-3 WR or mid-RB1. If everyone overpays for QBs in your auction typically and/or you want to build your team around the top QB, then it's not a reach at all to keep AR.

Dan Hindery said:

Assuming the top 2 teams have very good keepers, the question is basically Aaron Rodgers or the 1.12. 

According to ADP, Rodgers is going 18th overall. http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/adp.php

So from that perspective at least, guys like Howard, Murray, Jordy, etc. are viewed as more valuable than Rodgers. 

But it also comes down to your personal knowledge of the league auction tendencies and how much you want to invest in QB. If you think you can get a decent QB at a fair price in the auction, it's easier to swap Rodgers for a top-3 WR or mid-RB1. If everyone overpays for QBs in your auction typically and/or you want to build your team around the top QB, then it's not a reach at all to keep AR.

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That is something to think about.  ADP, IMHO, doesn't reveal a lot in determining a strategy for Auction draft other than where others are ranking players, it's more about, as you say. building a team around one or more players while getting the most bang for the buck. 

I wouldn't keep Rodgers if you can instead get a RB like Ajayi or Howard or a top 10 WR.  4 pts per passing TD somewhat diminishes the value of a QB vs RBs and WRs when we are talking about 1st/2nd round picks.  I would rather build around a stronger core at RB and WR and get a solid starting QB later on in that scoring.