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TRADE THREAD- President Trump signs Phase One of China agreement, China promises to double its purchases in 2020 (6 Viewers)

The soybean market as been down so far since this agreement was signed. From my daily marketing newsletter: In addition to the $200 billion in purchases, China also agreed to provide more protection for American companies’ intellectual property and to stop requiring U.S. companies to share their technology as a cost of doing business in China.

These specific requirements appear to be hard and fast rules of the agreement and if not met, harsh new U.S. tariffs would be enacted. However, the specifics end there, as the agreement contains no dollar amount targets for individual agricultural products and no timeframe for them to begin purchases.

The lack of meaningful Chinese buy orders left traders disappointed in a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” event.

 
James Daulton said:
Yea we really suffered with our unemployment going from > 10% to < 5%.  Debt going down once the recession was over, illegal immigration down, GDP the same as now, etc etc etc

WE REALLY SUFFERED!!!@@@!!!!
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Quite a payday for slowest recovery out of a recession EVER. 

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
The US and China will resolve differences over how the deal is implemented through bilateral consultations, starting at the working level and escalating to top-level officials.

If these consultations do not resolve disputes, there is a process for imposing tariffs or other penalties.
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- FT

My main feeling about this is I am glad that the China tariff's self-wounding is over. That might be the dumbest US non-military foreign policy I can recall for some time. For me, it's a wash and hopefully our ag centers can get their markets, which we created and owned, back. The only other thing is that this seems policy wise about trade targets rather than forcing China to adhere to procedures and policies for resolution, basically the WTO or some other sort of body like the TPP would have created (at least among member states). When China does not adhere we will just be back to Square 1.

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
My main feeling about this is I am glad that the China tariff's self-wounding is over.
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Is it?

SaintsInDome2006 said:
As part of the agreement, the US will cut by half the tariff rate it imposed on Sept 1 on a US$120 billion list of Chinese goods, to 7.5 per cent.

US tariffs of 25 per cent on US$250 billion worth of Chinese goods put in place earlier will remain immediately unchanged.
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It seems to me that the majority of the tariffs are continuing, to the detriment of consumers and manufacturers

 
msommer said:
SaintsInDome2006 said:
As part of the agreement, the US will cut by half the tariff rate it imposed on Sept 1 on a US$120 billion list of Chinese goods, to 7.5 per cent.

US tariffs of 25 per cent on US$250 billion worth of Chinese goods put in place earlier will remain immediately unchanged.
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It seems to me that the majority of the tariffs are continuing, to the detriment of consumers and manufacturers
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I had no idea, wow. Senseless.

 
Sheriff Bart said:
Because it isn't a contract for anything. They might as well said China is targeting buying 100 gazillion billion in ag products.  
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James Daulton said:
I’m guessing gazillion just isn’t in Trump’s vocabulary.  I think bigly is the highest unit of measure he’s familiar with.
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In a few days it probably will be a gazillion. Probably go up billions every time Trump talks about.

 
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JuniorNB said:
Hopefully this will allow the US to end the most socialist policy in my lifetime- handing billions to farmers damaged by Trump's trade war. Double the money spent as the 2009 auto bailout.  Funny how socialism is ok when it's used to put a band-aid on the president's errors. 
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You forgot "to a group of people that predominately voted for the president"

 
GoBirds said:
boots11234 said:
I would like to think if the shoe were on the other foot I’d be big enough to admit that Obama for example was doing a great job...if Obama on had the seeds trump does that is.  
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Totally and to give credit where it's due Obama did negotiate one of the best deals I've ever seen.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/07/trump-obama-book-deal-air-conditioning
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There’s a lot of questions I’d like to ask some people here about if Obama did what Trump was doing and how they’d feel about it, but the whataboutism answer would inevitably follow (that or silence.....)

 
dkp993 said:
There’s a lot of questions I’d like to ask some people here about if Obama did what Trump was doing and how they’d feel about it, but the whataboutism answer would inevitably follow (that or silence.....)
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Probably silence, as you are constantly in on the daily Trump bashing it wouldn’t be worth the time. 

 
GoBirds said:
Probably silence, as you are constantly in on the daily Trump bashing it wouldn’t be worth the time. 
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Falsehood.  Constantly and “daily Trump bashing” are not even close to accurate for me, regardless it also has absolutely nothing to do with my point but keep deflecting.  

Either way, you have a great day GB.  

 
dkp993 said:
Falsehood.  Constantly and “daily Trump bashing” are not even close to accurate for me, regardless it also has absolutely nothing to do with my point but keep deflecting.  

Either way, you have a great day GB.  
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Maybe the last few weeks you have not but you should check your posting history.

 
The Commish said:
symbolism is always great until it wears off and reality sets in.  it remains to be seen how this will play out unfortunately.  i'm kinda surprised they believe the markets are catching on to this as they suggest.  they've been pretty reactionary to this point.
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This is the same market that tanked every time possible new tariffs were announced and shot up every time a possible deal was announced.

 
Sheriff Bart said:
The Commish said:
symbolism is always great until it wears off and reality sets in.  it remains to be seen how this will play out unfortunately.  i'm kinda surprised they believe the markets are catching on to this as they suggest.  they've been pretty reactionary to this point.
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This is the same market that tanked every time possible new tariffs were announced and shot up every time a possible deal was announced.
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Someone does seem to be tweaking the algorithms.  By the way, that's a facet of today's "market" that few talk about or even know about.  IMO, it's a problem that showed itself a bit in the 2008-09 crisis.  Look at banks like Wachovia...they no longer exist primarily because of these computers.  This is a large part of the "confidence" based market we're a part of now.  It's interesting to watch everyone rush to blame or praise individuals for our stock market success/failure especially today.  It's always been unwise to attribute success of such a complex system to an individual(s) but now it's more popular than ever even though we are getting further and further away from individuals having much of anything to do with the markets.  Depending on who you ask anywhere from 40-60% of trades made today are done by computers.

 
Bucky86 said:
So we sent 30billion in aid to farms, yet they still reached an 8 year high in bankruptcies? 
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I've seen a few articles over the past couple of years talk about the suicide rate among farmers increasing too.  I know I saw one more recent than THIS, but to give a little reference behind it.

Research by four Cal Poly San Luis Obispo agriculture communication students found that suicide rates in agriculture are five times higher than the national average — and shockingly, even double the rate for military veterans. Among the reasons: net farm income worries (the leading cause), social isolation among farmers, pesticide-induced issues, and the ever-present stigma related to mental health issues in this country.
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Gopher State said:
After all the aid/help Obama gave GM, this is the long term result.
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The withdrawal of the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership will be a huge blow to some Australian producers but its biggest impact could be to relations in the Asia-Pacific.

With the stroke of his pen and a smile, US President Donald Trump lived up to his promise of killing the TPP between America, Australia, New Zealand and nine other Pacific nations.

The agreement was originally billed as the gold-standard in free trade deals and a strategy to blunt China’s dominance in the Asia-Pacific.

But just three days after the TPP’s champion, former president Barack Obama, moved out of the White House, Mr Trump signed the executive order to withdraw the US from the TPP.

It is a major blow to Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull as the TPP was the key plank of the nation’s trade policy.

“Everyone knows what that means, right?” Mr Trump said at the signing ceremony.

“We’ve been talking about this for a long time. It’s a great thing for the American worker.”

A slimmed down TPP, without the US, could emerge, although China is expected to move in and fill the hole left by America. China was not invited to join the TPP and had already been negotiating its own rival deal, the RCEP. ...
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2017 - Predictable, predicted.

 
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"Technically" GM paid it back, but not all in cash and the Treasury still owns GM stock.  Per Motley Fool.  

A breakdown of GM's repayment to date
Of that $49.5 billion that was lent to GM, the U.S. Treasury has so far recovered about $35.4 billion. Here's how it breaks down:

GM paid back $6.7 billion in cash, the last of which was paid in April 2010. That was when then-CEO Ed Whitacre declared in TV ads that GM's debt had been "paid in full." (I bet he wishes now that he hadn't said that.)
 

$13 billion via GM's IPO, back in 2010. GM didn't actually get any money from its own IPO – it was done primarily in order to let the government sell off part of its holdings. The Treasury Department sold about 45% of its total GM stock holdings in the IPO.
 

The U.S. received another $2.1 billion when GM bought back some preferred stock from the Treasury in late 2010.
 

The U.S. got another $5.5 billion when GM bought back 200 million shares of its stock from the Treasury last December. At the time, GM and the Treasury agreed that Treasury would sell its remaining holdings gradually, on the open market.
 

Treasury has received about $8.1 billion from its sales of GM stock on the open market since the beginning of 2013.
 

That leaves about $14.1 billion of the $49.5 billion loan still unpaid, and the Treasury Department with about 113 million shares of GM stock left to sell.

To break even, Treasury would have to get about $125 per share for its remaining shares. But GM's stock is currently trading around $36. At current prices, the Treasury's remaining stock is worth a little over $4 billion.
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Kind of sad about GM pulling out of Ausie and ending the Holden Colorado.  Always wanted want of those trucks.  

 
beef said:
I've seen a few articles over the past couple of years talk about the suicide rate among farmers increasing too.  I know I saw one more recent than THIS, but to give a little reference behind it.
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And in pretty large numbers, these guys keep voting for the people handing them the rope.

 
beef said:
Kind of sad about GM pulling out of Ausie and ending the Holden Colorado.  Always wanted want of those trucks.  
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Steering wheel's on the wrong side, mate

 
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Henry Ford said:
Depends what you mean.  GM completely complied with the terms of its loan-for-cash-and-stock agreement, the government sold that stock ultimately at a loss compared to the amount given to GM once it was all added up.
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GM complied with a deal that was set up to gift them money.  That’s not GMs fault per se, but in the end, taxpayers handed GM tens of billions that was never paid back.

The overall loss was pegged at around $30B I believe.  That includes a much smaller stake in Chrysler.

 
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jonessed said:
GM complied with a deal that was set up to gift them money.  That’s not GMs fault per se, but in the end, taxpayers handed GM tens of billions that was never paid back.

The overall loss was pegged at around $30B I believe.  That includes a much smaller stake in Chrysler.
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I don't believe that's accurate.  Last I saw it was $9.3 billion for the entire TARP according to the Treasury Department.

 
David Kiley for Forbes in 2016: cost was $9.7 billion:

The net cost to tax-payers was tallied to be $9.7 billion. But even that number is pretty meaningless. Harder to calculate, but no less real, is the economic impact of 1.55 million workers paying taxes on good jobs, fueling the economic growth of their communities, etc. There is a total of 7.25 million jobs impacted by the auto industry. Had the President not intervened, it’s not as if all those jobs would have vanished. But in the midst of a broad economic meltdown that extended overseas, $9.7 billion at the time seems cheap to insure peace of mind about keeping the auto industry in tact on a predictable course as the backbone of what is left of the U.S.’s manufacturing base.
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Trump economic adviser blames lower GDP on trade wars

A slowdown in U.S. growth last year was at least partly the fault of President Donald Trump’s global trade battles and the resulting hit to business investment, the administration’s top economist said on Thursday in an outlook for the coming years.

“Once we got renegotiation of trade agreements, we saw uncertainty in the market, and investment took a hit,” Tomas Philipson, acting chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, said in a briefing with reporters about the CEA’s annual Economic Report of the President.
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Henry Ford said:
GM and. Chrysler cost $30 billion, they made $15 billion, so the total tally was 9.7 billion?

Those numbers not only aren’t what I’m seeing, they literally don’t add up. 
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I thought the $9.7 billion was for TARP as a whole.  

It looks like you’re right.  The GM loss was about $11B.

 
jonessed said:
I thought the $9.7 billion was for TARP as a whole.  
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The Agriculture Department has already paid farmers more than $23 billion to offset their financial losses under Trump’s trade war since 2018, on top of other tariff relief measures like commodity purchases and marketing assistance.
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- Politico

- The farmer bailout stemming from Trump's trade policies is more than twice the TARP bailout.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
- Politico

- The farmer bailout stemming from Trump's trade policies is more than twice the TARP bailout.
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I’m not sure what the point of connecting these two things is.  The trade negotiations are a lot more complicated than farmer subsidies. We won’t know the full impact, good or bad, for some time.  Why do you see these policies as closely related?

 
jonessed said:
I’m not sure what the point of connecting these two things is.  The trade negotiations are a lot more complicated than farmer subsidies. We won’t know the full impact, good or bad, for some time.  Why do you see these policies as closely related?
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Because the loss of markets directly tied to the tariffs policies led to the need for the bailout.

 
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