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TRADE THREAD- President Trump signs Phase One of China agreement, China promises to double its purchases in 2020 (2 Viewers)

timschochet said:
Yes he did. But since he’s the one who did it I can blame him. In both cases those that supported him were short-sided IMO. 
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Yeah, I do know that you think that. I didn't mean to bring up these old saws; I think we both know each other's positions on them, and we disagree. 

 
rockaction said:
Yeah, I do know that you think that. I didn't mean to bring up these old saws; I think we both know each other's positions on them, and we disagree. 
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I enjoy my disagreements with you far more than I do many of my agreements with others here,, and I’ve learned much from them, because I really appreciate your ability to look inside complex issues and get to the heart of the matter. 

 
How Much Will the Trade War
Cost You by the End of the Year?

A new wave of tariffs by the Trump administration went into effect on Sunday, rendering the majority of goods imported to the United States from China subject to import taxes.

It is the latest move in a drawn-out conflict between the world’s two largest economies. This round — a 15 percent tariff on billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods as varied as cereal bowls, paint brushes and pajamas — is likely to hit American households in the most direct way yet.

By how much? About $460 over a year for the average family, according to an analysis from the economists Kirill Borusyak at University College London and Xavier Jaravel and at the London School of Economics.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/business/economy/trade-war-costs.html

That looks to be about 4 years without Costco for most families...

 
timschochet said:
New tariffs take effect: 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.axios.com/trump-trade-war-fresh-tariffs-on-chinese-imports-75b9a718-0715-4c2f-9a14-b8c21ff7db01.html
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Sinn Fein said:
How Much Will the Trade War
Cost You by the End of the Year?

A new wave of tariffs by the Trump administration went into effect on Sunday, rendering the majority of goods imported to the United States from China subject to import taxes.

It is the latest move in a drawn-out conflict between the world’s two largest economies. This round — a 15 percent tariff on billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods as varied as cereal bowls, paint brushes and pajamas — is likely to hit American households in the most direct way yet.

By how much? About $460 over a year for the average family, according to an analysis from the economists Kirill Borusyak at University College London and Xavier Jaravel and at the London School of Economics.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/business/economy/trade-war-costs.html

That looks to be about 4 years without Costco for most families...
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So stupid. Just quadrupling down now. If it didn't work the first 3 times, let's just try it again. Tillerson was correct....DJT is a m***n.

 
bradyfan said:
People in our offices located in China.  They keep doing the opposite of what I requested, and it is not the usual office politics.  I will probably have to use reverse psychology,  and pay much closer attention because I caught a new “sabotage” on Friday.
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What sort of job function?

 
Japan Struggles to Elude Trump Tariff Threat

Trump and Abe are seeking a final agreement in time for their expected meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly later this month.

But negotiators have only just begun working out details, such as how much tariffs will be cut for which items, Japanese government officials familiar with the negotiations told Reuters.

A deal this month could be tricky, as there’s little time to nail down the wording for politically sensitive areas such as farm products and autos, and clear any legal hurdles, the officials say.
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China August factory deflation deepens, prices fall most in three years; pork prices soar

China’s factory-gate prices shrank at the sharpest pace in three years in August, falling deeper into deflationary territory and reinforcing the urgency for Beijing to step up economic stimulus as the trade war with the United States intensifies.

The central bank on Friday cut banks’ reserve requirements for the seventh time since early 2018 to free up more money for lending, and analysts widely expect it to cut some of its key lending rates next week to reduce corporate borrowing costs.

China’s central bank governor Yi Gang said in late July that interest rate levels were appropriate and that cutting rates would mainly deal with the danger of deflation. But he said at the time that price changes in China remained moderate.

Surging food prices and higher consumer inflation will not be a barrier to policy easing, analysts said.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.8% from a year earlier, unchanged from July and beating analysts’ expectations at 2.6%, but still below China’s annual target of around 3%.

“Despite the higher CPI, we expect the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to cut interest rates in the fourth quarter this year,” ANZ said.

“China’s declining producer price index (PPI) carries more weight with policymakers in their monetary policy decisions, in our view.”

The food price index rose 10% on-year, from a 9.1% jump in July and the highest since January 2012. Pork prices soared 46.7%, after an increase of 27% in July, as African swine fever decimates the country’s herds.
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Henry Ford said:
This is not a reasonable legal interpretation of what this agreement says.

Those two paragraphs do not work together like that.  At all. It is definitely not that case that it means what you’re saying it means.  If a law clerk told me that’s what this agreement says I would fire him and would not provide a reference.  
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So, not only did those tariff threats spur real action from Mexico which has definitively slowed crossings at the border, Mexico has cooperated with the U.S. demand to act as a safe third country, and today the rule allowing the US to turn non-Mexican asylum seekers back to Mexico was affirmed by the Supreme Court...

https://www.apnews.com/a817cf3affb04f3d8ad3c4940366a5fe

I remember debating this 3 months ago and all the naysayers like yourself saying there was no teeth to the agreement. My words then, "we shall see".

Now we see.

 
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Mr Anonymous said:
So, not only did those tariff threats spur real action from Mexico which has definitively slowed crossings at the border, Mexico has cooperated with the U.S. demand to act as a safe third country, and today the rule allowing the US to turn asylum seekers back to Mexico was affirmed by the Supreme Court...

https://www.apnews.com/a817cf3affb04f3d8ad3c4940366a5fe

I remember debating this 3 months ago and all the naysayers like yourself saying there was no teeth to the agreement. My words then, "we shall see".

Now we see.
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I didn’t know back then if you were wrong; I just hoped you were. 

The SC decision is depressing. The plan itself is disgusting and anti-American. 

 
timschochet said:
I didn’t know back then if you were wrong; I just hoped you were. 

The SC decision is depressing. The plan itself is disgusting and anti-American. 
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I didn't spend that afternoon debating if it was the humane thing to do. I was being told that it was another phony agreement Trump made that would produce nothing and fizzle away. My argument was that some real steps were being taken by Mexico at gunpoint by Trump. And today it would be hard to argue that a dramatic difference hasn't been made at the border.

The most vocal person declaring that the agreement wasn't worth the folded paper it was scribbled on was @Henry Ford our resident legal eagle. Curious what he thinks now that Mexico held up their end of the deal. And as an offshoot, that the US policy behind it was held up by the SC.

 
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Mr Anonymous said:
So, not only did those tariff threats spur real action from Mexico which has definitively slowed crossings at the border, Mexico has cooperated with the U.S. demand to act as a safe third country, and today the rule allowing the US to turn non-Mexican asylum seekers back to Mexico was affirmed by the Supreme Court...

https://www.apnews.com/a817cf3affb04f3d8ad3c4940366a5fe

I remember debating this 3 months ago and all the naysayers like yourself saying there was no teeth to the agreement. My words then, "we shall see".

Now we see.
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Reread the article and the decision. 

The rule wasn’t affirmed. The injunction was dropped while the case moves forward.  

 
Mr Anonymous said:
I didn't spend that afternoon debating if it was the humane thing to do. I was being told that it was another phony agreement Trump made that would produce nothing and fizzle away. My argument was that some real steps were being taken by Mexico at gunpoint by Trump. And today it would be hard to argue that a dramatic difference hasn't been made at the border.

The most vocal person declaring that the agreement wasn't worth the folded paper it was scribbled on was @Henry Ford our resident legal eagle. Curious what he thinks now that Mexico held up their end of the deal. And as an offshoot, that the US policy behind it was held up by the SC.
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No it wasn’t.

 
This is kind of the problem with having these discussions. If you just take the administration at its word as to what things mean, there can’t be a discussion.  Because what they’re saying is simply not reality.  The Supreme Court didn’t uphold the policy.  It said the case goes on but we won’t enjoin the government from using it while the case goes on. 

So maybe you’ll eventually be right.  Today isn’t that day.  And treating it like it is simply magnifies the chasm of understanding between us when we’re trying to have a discussion. 

 
No, I'm right today as the discussion wasn't about what the Supreme Court would rule, it was whether or not there was teeth to the agreement with Mexico or not. I said there was, you said there wasn't. Here we are today and we know know that Mexico did what Trump wanted them to do. They became a safe third country and it allows the U.S. to turn away asylum seekers passing through Mexico. The tariff threat got the result Trump sought.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
No, I'm right today as the discussion wasn't about what the Supreme Court would rule, it was whether or not there was teeth to the agreement with Mexico or not. I said there was, you said there wasn't. Here we are today and we know know that Mexico did what Trump wanted them to do. They became a safe third country and it allows the U.S. to turn away asylum seekers passing through Mexico. The tariff threat got the result Trump sought.
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It is? 

Mexico may be an unexpected winner of the US-China trade war

So not only is Mexico not paying for the wall, you have to be in some serious denial to believe that lie, Trump starts a trade war that hurts the US and benefits Mexico. 

GENIUS! 

 
Mr Anonymous said:
Super. Also has nothing to do with the agreement in question.
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Neither does Mexico doing something bear on whether the US had the right to change its laws under the agreement which, spoiler, it still doesn’t. 

 
Mr Anonymous said:
No, I'm right today as the discussion wasn't about what the Supreme Court would rule, it was whether or not there was teeth to the agreement with Mexico or not. I said there was, you said there wasn't. Here we are today and we know know that Mexico did what Trump wanted them to do. They became a safe third country and it allows the U.S. to turn away asylum seekers passing through Mexico. The tariff threat got the result Trump sought.
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You should reread the discussion and this post and, you know, this recent (3 days ago) statement by Mexico’s Foreign Minister. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-immigration-mexico-ebrard/mexico-wont-be-safe-third-country-for-asylum-seekers-ebrard-idUSKCN1VU27T

 
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Since Mexico is now a "safe third country" that means there isn't going to be an "caravan invasion" in the next few months, right?  Anyone want to lay odds on there being no caravan invasions anymore?  I have some money burning a hole in my pocket.

 
Betsy Klein

@betsy_klein

President Trump on China trade in the East Room: "We’re looking for a complete deal, I’m not looking for a partial deal." Can it get done before the election? "No, I don’t think I can get it before the election."

:kicksrock:

 
Sinn Fein said:
Betsy Klein

@betsy_klein

President Trump on China trade in the East Room: "We’re looking for a complete deal, I’m not looking for a partial deal." Can it get done before the election? "No, I don’t think I can get it before the election."

:kicksrock:
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:lmao: Would think the almost literally Son of God would be a better negotiator. Maybe the best ever even. 

 
Don't worry, Trump will soon tweet that the quote is FAKE NEWS and that a complete deal with China should be ready to go "in a couple weeks."

 
Sinn Fein said:
Oh, by the way:

Bloomberg

@business

At $28 billion so far, the farm rescue is more than twice as expensive as the 2009 bailout of Detroit’s Big Three automakers, which cost taxpayers $12 billion  https://bloom.bg/30G2RS9 via @BW

I wonder when the farmers will be paying the bailout money back.  :coffee:
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And Im all for the farmers...but remember how many complained about the auto bailout?  Yet are silent now.

And this was all caused by actions of the president (unlike the auto bailout wasn't quite caused by presidential actions that resulted in them losing business like this).

The "people vote with their wallet" crowd are pretty quiet about it.

 
Henry Ford said:
Bayou Steel, one of the largest employers in LaPlace, Louisiana, has abruptly closed.  Tariffs blamed.

https://www.nola.com/news/business/article_eb4bdb54-e3bf-11e9-a105-1fbf4a4b79a4.html
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I had a client  file bankruptcy a couple of weeks ago because the trade war killed him.  Sucks as he employed about 100 people.  He had a number of autographed pictures of himself with Trump in his office.  I didn't have the gut to ask him if he was still a Trump supporter because the whole thing is so sad (dumb).

 
Sheriff Bart said:
Remember when the trade war was going to bring all of that manufacturing back to the US?

Dow drops more than 300 points after weakest manufacturing reading in 10 years
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Its really weird. 

Because there are a lot of smart people here, and in the Administration.  I mean, some of the smartest people ever.  And yet, nobody predicted that it was a bad idea to give tax breaks to corporations to use - not on Plant & Equipment, and not on R&D - but instead use that money to prop up stock prices via stock re-purchases.  Its almost like people were forgetting what happens when you artificially inflate asset prices - and are now shocked to see a downturn in manufacturing.

I am completely shuked.  :shrug:

 
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