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TRADE THREAD- President Trump signs Phase One of China agreement, China promises to double its purchases in 2020 (5 Viewers)

According to CNBC an hour ago nobody other than Trump or his inner circle has seen the actual deal yet.  Must be a real winner. :rolleyes:
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that China isn't committing to buy the 1000% increase (or whatever it was that the admin threw out) in ag products.  I bet it's not even a reset to the level prior to the trade war, essentially a net negative.

 
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I have no issue with you bringing it up and want to discuss it.  I originally asked if his statement was BS with a question mark and the end.  That could be construed that I thought you were posting BS so I've edited my original post.  

It makes perfect sense to think the Trump trade war would have huge negative impacts on the economy.  Costing the average person $1300 would be a huge impact.  I'm just trying to rationalize where that impact is actually being seen.  Personally I'm not seeing it, but I'm just one data point.
Perhaps part of that number includes the $10s of billions in farm subsidies Trump has paid to farmers to compensate them?  Since that’s just added debt, the average person still hasn’t felt it, is that’s why you see no huge impact.  
Just a guess.   :shrug:

 
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that China isn't committing to buy the 1000% increase (or whatever it was that the admin threw out) in ag products.  I bet it's not even a reset to the level prior to the trade war, essentially a net negative.
This likely opens a channel for more pork sales. Swine fever has killed about half the stocks in China so this makes sense.

 
This likely opens a channel for more pork sales. Swine fever has killed about half the stocks in China so this makes sense.
Speaking selfishly, I just hope the 25% tariffs on manufactured components (not finished goods) go down to zero. That's what's killing my industry.

 
Speaking selfishly, I just hope the 25% tariffs on manufactured components (not finished goods) go down to zero. That's what's killing my industry.
They just added 25% to injection molds produced in China.  We’ll see if it sticks this time, I believe automakers pushed and got it rescinded last time.  

 
The Z Machine said:
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that China isn't committing to buy the 1000% increase (or whatever it was that the admin threw out) in ag products.  I bet it's not even a reset to the level prior to the trade war, essentially a net negative.
Absolutely agree with you. They will buy what amount they want which will not be the amount they agreed to and will not get to Phase 2 before the elections

 
I think Phase 1 was always a figment of Trump's imagination.


I believe Phase 2 is a figment of the President's imagination, a nonexistent deal that never actually happened similar to Phase 1. But because he said it's almost a done deal, his staff are working to make something happen within this framework of phases he started repeating over and over again.


I can imagine the discussion going something like this back in October or whenever he first brought it up:

Xi: Well, Mr. President, removal of tariffs would be a requirement for us to proceed at all, a first phase, so to speak.

Trump: "something about his approval rating among Republicans."

Trump, later to reporters: "We're pretty much done with Phase One of a massive, huge trade deal. Any day now.

(US trade delegation, watching in horror, scrambles to retrofit something into this new construct for which they received no notification.)
I still think is the Occam's Razor explanation for how this is all going down.

 
Here's a story from today:

Here's what's in the phase one China trade deal Trump is signing this week

For all the pomp and circumstance expected at the signing ceremony — and repeated assurances from American negotiators — many are still unsure of exactly what the two nations are agreeing to.
We have been going through a translation process that I think we said was really a technical issue," Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Fox News on Sunday. "And people can see. This is a very, very extensive agreement."
:rolleyes:    Good God Almighty. :lmao:

 
Some summaries of the agreement released but no actual details and it's all targets for the Chinese to buy.  So in other words there isn't any actual agreement to buy Xbillion widgets.  It is also being reported that China doesn't have to stop buying products from other countries, that they used to buy from the US, prior to the trade war.

Sounds to me like China gets the pork products and poultry they want and Trump gets the "deal" he wants.  The US gets more "promises".

 
Some summaries of the agreement released but no actual details and it's all targets for the Chinese to buy.  So in other words there isn't any actual agreement to buy Xbillion widgets.  It is also being reported that China doesn't have to stop buying products from other countries, that they used to buy from the US, prior to the trade war.

Sounds to me like China gets the pork products and poultry they want and Trump gets the "deal" he wants.  The US gets more "promises".
As predicted day 1.  Will be interesting to see how this unfolds once given to the House and Senate if it ever gets finalized (which is always a large IF).

 
Sounds to me like China gets the pork products and poultry they want and Trump gets the "deal" he wants.  The US gets more "promises".
No way!  Who could have predicted?

So in summary, Trump damaged economic growth worldwide including US companies doing US manufacturing, cost Americans billions over the last year and a half due to tariffs, and didn't get any movement on IP theft or even greater access for US companies in China.  Net lose-lose-lose?  Art of the Deal?

 
As predicted day 1.  Will be interesting to see how this unfolds once given to the House and Senate if it ever gets finalized (which is always a large IF).


No way!  Who could have predicted?

So in summary, Trump damaged economic growth worldwide including US companies doing US manufacturing, cost Americans billions over the last year and a half due to tariffs, and didn't get any movement on IP theft or even greater access for US companies in China.  Net lose-lose-lose?  Art of the Deal?
Again, going as it is being reported on CNBC.  For example China is targeting 50 billion (it may have been more, it may have been less) in auto parts purchases.  The reporter was asked for more details, granular is the word they used, and she said that information hasn't been released.

 
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No way!  Who could have predicted?

So in summary, Trump damaged economic growth worldwide including US companies doing US manufacturing, cost Americans billions over the last year and a half due to tariffs, and didn't get any movement on IP theft or even greater access for US companies in China.  Net lose-lose-lose?  Art of the Deal?
Also, China doesn't have to stop subsidies.

 
It’s great news IF China keeps its promises. If they don’t, our farmers will be in a world of hurt (they are right now.) 

I guess all we can do is (a) hope China lives up to their word for once and (b) get a real deal-maker as President as soon as possible, someone who understands trade. 

 
It’s great news IF China keeps its promises. If they don’t, our farmers will be in a world of hurt (they are right now.) 

I guess all we can do is (a) hope China lives up to their word for once and (b) get a real deal-maker as President as soon as possible, someone who understands trade. 
All we have to do is trust China AND Trump?!!  That's it?!!

 
Haven't seen all the details of the deal but must of been a bit of a disappointment as soybean markets are down quite a bit today. There had been a bit of a rally the last few weeks.

 
Haven't seen all the details of the deal but must of been a bit of a disappointment as soybean markets are down quite a bit today. There had been a bit of a rally the last few weeks.
Because it isn't a contract for anything. They might as well said China is targeting buying 100 gazillion billion in ag products.  

 
And let’s not forget this Deal   Didn’t realize Obama could be such a deal maker. Amazing you enter the whitehouse a middle class community activist and leave a millionaire. 
Well when the entire world  loves you (except Russia, they're firmly Team Trump) you can write best selling books and are in demand as a speaker just like Trump will...

Sorry, I couldn't finish with a straight face. 

 
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And let’s not forget this Deal   Didn’t realize Obama could be such a deal maker. Amazing you enter the whitehouse a middle class community activist and leave a millionaire. 
I guess when your book deal is $65 million after the last POTUS book deal was $7 million you can do than. It’s unfortunate for us Americans he was never able to negotiate like that while in office. 

 
I guess when your book deal is $65 million after the last POTUS book deal was $7 million you can do than. It’s unfortunate for us Americans he was never able to negotiate like that while in office. 
Yea we really suffered with our unemployment going from > 10% to < 5%.  Debt going down once the recession was over, illegal immigration down, GDP the same as now, etc etc etc

WE REALLY SUFFERED!!!@@@!!!!

 
Yea we really suffered with our unemployment going from > 10% to < 5%.  Debt going down once the recession was over, illegal immigration down, GDP the same as now, etc etc etc

WE REALLY SUFFERED!!!@@@!!!!
Let's not forget he was the great divider, responsible for all the white male repression!

 
Am I seeing pretty much no real defense of this deal...only mocking Obama for some reason?

Is there anything in this deal that makes up for how much American businesses have been hurt by the tarrifs?  How much we (the taxpayers) are paying farmers to bail them out of the mess caused by the administration?

 
I agree with that assessment.  Trump created the damage and has "fixed" only about 1/3rd of it, but it's a "win" for him.  Ridiculous. 
A local radio host (and son of a farmer friend of mine who is on the National Soybean  Association board) posted this about this deal and Trump:

“He broke your legs, told you to walk it off for two years, and now he finally took you to the doctor to get it fixed, and you’re thanking him for all his hard work.”

 
He's making an attempt to fix problems those before him didn't have the stones too, what's not to like. 

https://www.ft.com/content/a01564ba-37d5-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4
For any who don't have this:

***

What's in the US-China phase one trade deal?

WASHINGTON (REUTERS) - United States President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He signed a deal on Wednesday (Jan 15) in the White House that cut some US tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for Chinese pledges to purchase more American farm, energy and manufactured goods and address some US complaints about intellectual property practices.

Below are details of the deal released by the United States Trade Representative.

Beijing has not yet released a version of the deal in Chinese, after an extended translation process that continued until Tuesday night.

CHINA PURCHASES

China agreed to increase purchases of American products and services by at least US$200 billion (S$270 billion) over the next two years, over a baseline established in 2017, with increased imports of US goods and services to “continue on this same trajectory for several years after 2021”.

China bought US$130 billion in US goods in 2017, before the trade war began, and US$56 billion in services, US data shows.

China has committed to US$77.7 billion in additional manufacturing purchases over two years, up from the 2017 level, the text says, which will be a US$32.9 billion increase in 2020 and a US$44.8 billion increase in 2021.

That means China’s imports of US manufactured goods, such as industrial machinery, electrical equipment, pharmaceutical products, aircraft, vehicles, optical and medical instruments, iron and steel, solar-grade polysilicon, hardwood lumber, and chemical products, among other goods, will total at least US$120 billion in 2020 and at least US$131.9 billion in 2021, USTR said in a fact sheet on the trade deal.

China has committed to at least US$52.4 billion in additional energy purchases over the two years, from a baseline of US$9.1 billion in 2017. That will be broken into US$18.5 billion additional in 2020 and US$33.9 billion in 2021.

China’s imports of energy products from the US, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG), crude oil, and metallurgical coal, will total at least US$30.1 billion in 2020 and at least US$45.5 billion in 2021.

China will also purchase US$37.9 billion in services from US companies above the 2017 level over the two years, US$12.8 billion above the 2017 level in 2020 and US$25.1 billion above the level in 2021.

That means China’s imports of US services, such as financial services, insurance services, cloud services, and travel services, will total at least US$99.9 billion in 2020 and at least US$112.2 billion in 2021.

China “shall ensure” additional purchases of US agriculture products by US$32 billion over two years, the deal says, including US$12.5 billion above the corresponding 2017 baseline of US$24 billion in 2020 and US$19.5 billion above the baseline in 2021.

As a result, China’s imports of US agricultural products, such as soybeans, cotton, grains, meats, ethanol, seafood, and the full range of other agricultural products will total at least US$80 billion over the next two years. China will also strive to purchase an additional US$5 billion of agricultural products annually, USTR said.

The added purchases would result in an average annual total of about US$40 billion, a number Mr Trump has touted before. At the signing ceremony on Wednesday, he said China’s agricultural purchases could reach US$50 billion.

TARIFFS

As part of the agreement, the US will cut by half the tariff rate it imposed on Sept 1 on a US$120 billion list of Chinese goods, to 7.5 per cent.

US tariffs of 25 per cent on US$250 billion worth of Chinese goods put in place earlier will remain immediately unchanged.

These remaining US tariffs could be removed once the two sides conclude a phase two trade agreement, Mr Trump said on Wednesday. He said he did not anticipate needing to negotiate a phase three agreement.

Tariffs that were scheduled to go into effect on Dec 15 on nearly US$160 billion worth of Chinese goods, including cellphones, laptop computers, toys and clothing, are suspended indefinitely. China’s retaliatory Dec 15 tariffs, including a 25 per cent tariff on US-made autos, have also been suspended.

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY

The deal includes stronger Chinese legal protections for patents, trademarks, copyrights, including improved criminal and civil procedures to combat online infringement, pirated and counterfeit goods, USTR said.

It contains commitments by China to follow through on previous pledges to eliminate any pressure for foreign companies to transfer technology to Chinese firms as a condition of market access, licensing or administrative approvals and to eliminate any government advantages for such transfers.

China also agreed to refrain from directly supporting outbound investment aimed at acquiring foreign technology to meet its industrial plans – transactions already restricted by stronger US security reviews.

CURRENCY 

The currency agreement contains pledges by China to refrain from competitive currency devaluations and to avoid manipulating exchange rates for competitive advantage – language that China has accepted for years as part of its commitments to the Group of 20 major economies.

Any violations would be subject to the enforcement mechanism for the overall deal, and could trigger tariffs. Both countries also agreed to publish relevant data on exchange rates and external balances on a prescribed schedule, USTR said.

ENFORCEMENT 

The US and China will resolve differences over how the deal is implemented through bilateral consultations, starting at the working level and escalating to top-level officials.

If these consultations do not resolve disputes, there is a process for imposing tariffs or other penalties.

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told reporters the US expected neither side would retaliate if appropriate action was taken as part of the process and following “consultation in good faith”.

CHINA FINANCIAL SERVICES

US officials said the deal includes improved access to China’s financial services market for US companies, including in banking, insurance, securities and credit rating services. It aims to address a number of longstanding US complaints about investment barriers in the sector, including foreign equity limitations and discriminatory regulatory requirements.

China, which has pledged for years to open up its financial services sector to more foreign competition, said the deal would boost imports of financial services from the US.

***

 
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