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Rank the rookie rbs so far

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I have a hard time seeing the defense getting better with Gregg Williams still running the defense. You guys see how often they played Jabril Peppers 30 yards off the line of scrimmage? First of all, that is absurdly and Peppers is a hybrid S/LB not a centerfielder. They completely negate his strengths when move him so far off the line of scrimmage. If there is anything that damns the Browns this year, it will be the coaching staff.

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6 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

You are right. Donnell Pumphrey put up insane stats for 3 years there. 2000/20, 2000/20, 2300/17 before Penny took over this year and had 2300/25. 

This was part of my issue with Penny is that I could not help but to compare him to Pumphrey who certainly isn't as powerful a runner as Penny is, but did look a lot quicker and elusive than Penny did in the same offense.

I found myself asking if Penny is actually a better RB than Pumphrey is.

The draft position clears that up pretty well for me, but Penny is going to have his work cut out for him behind that offensive line.

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

I have a hard time seeing the defense getting better with Gregg Williams still running the defense. You guys see how often they played Jabril Peppers 30 yards off the line of scrimmage? First of all, that is absurdly and Peppers is a hybrid S/LB not a centerfielder. They completely negate his strengths when move him so far off the line of scrimmage. If there is anything that damns the Browns this year, it will be the coaching staff.

I'm not refuting your point in any way. Just being a smart *pass* here, but the first baseball analogy I think of when I hear "hybrid S/LB" is "centerfielder".

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7 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

For me it's not just the SDSU thing.  He looks very unimpressive to me when I watch his videos.  I am having trouble reconciling that with how high several NFL teams seem to be on him.

I totally agree.  He gets a C+ on the eye test for me, but all these teams have him at a solid A.  I don't get it.  We must be wrong, right?

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7 minutes ago, hunter1 said:

I totally agree.  He gets a C+ on the eye test for me, but all these teams have him at a solid A.  I don't get it.  We must be wrong, right?

Yes

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47 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I'm not refuting your point in any way. Just being a smart *pass* here, but the first baseball analogy I think of when I hear "hybrid S/LB" is "centerfielder".

A safety linebacker hybrid should be playing near the line of scrimmage, as a strong side LB, strong safety or perhaps in the nickle role.

All have important run fit responsibilities and Peppers in particular, he has pass rush abilities, so you should want him to line up near the LOS so he can be a threat as a blitzer or just to make teams account for the possibility that he will blitz.

If you play Peppers as a free safety center fielder type role, he is not going to be able to do the things he is good at, and is forced into a role that he isn't that good at.

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After further thought supported by discussion here I have decided to move Chubb Freeman and Johnson down to tier two now with Michel.

So RB rankings would be this

Tier 11

Saquon Barkley

Tier 1

Derrius Guice 59 Redskins
Ronald Jones 38 Bucs
Rashaad Penny 27 Seahawks


Tier 2

Nick Chubb 35 Browns
Sony Michel 31 Patriots
Royce Freeman 71 Broncos
Kerryon Johnson 43 Lions

Tier 3

Ito Smith 128 Falcons
Kalen Ballage 131 Dolphins
Nyheim Hines 104 Colts
John Kelly 176 Rams
Bo Scarbrough 236 Cowboys
Mark Walton 112 Bengals

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2 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

After further thought supported by discussion here I have decided to move Chubb Freeman and Johnson down to tier two now with Michel.

So RB rankings would be this

Tier 11

Saquon Barkley

Tier 1

Derrius Guice 59 Redskins
Ronald Jones 38 Bucs
Rashaad Penny 27 Seahawks


Tier 2

Nick Chubb 35 Browns
Sony Michel 31 Patriots
Royce Freeman 71 Broncos
Kerryon Johnson 43 Lions

Tier 3

Ito Smith 128 Falcons
Kalen Ballage 131 Dolphins
Nyheim Hines 104 Colts
John Kelly 176 Rams
Bo Scarbrough 236 Cowboys
Mark Walton 112 Bengals

Pretty much agree with this. Only thing I might change is moving Hines to the top of tier 3. 

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2 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

Pretty much agree with this. Only thing I might change is moving Hines to the top of tier 3. 

I always have a hard time fitting players to my tier parameters.

Just about any RB with enough opportunity could finish as a top 12 RB which is what tier one means.

Tier two is having the upside to finish RB 13-24 for fantasy. After thinking about the time share possibilities and competition for opportunities, especially premium opportunities such as being a receiver, 

I decided that Chubb likely will be in a time share or more of a back up this season, which isn't the end of the world as rookies tend to have their best seasons in year two through 6 of their careers (largely due to injuries, time share, not being good at pass protection.. hell even Peterson had to time share as a rookie) but it does decrease the overall value of the player, using a 3 year window outlook. Also some uncertainty with the Browns if they do have a coaching change after this season.

Royce Freeman is a good receiving option as far as I can tell but Booker is good at that too. Not a total lock that he starts over Booker or doesn't split some with him. Still unknown how good the Broncos offensive line will be? It hasn't been very good. Case Keenum should improve their QB position which will help the RB and entire offense, but maybe not? In any case Denver isn't a great spot for a RB sans Peyton Manning.

Kerryon Johnson seems like he can catch alright as well, but Theo Riddick is very good at that, and he likely isn't going away.

I suppose I could apply the same reasoning to Derrius Guice with Chris Thompson taking the 3rd down receiving role. I just think Guice is a tier better than these other RB from pre NFL draft evaluation. So he stays at two for me.

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7 minutes ago, massraider said:

What does Ronald Jones do better than Chubb?

In my opinion Jones is faster than Chubb, has better acceleration to pull away from defenders, slightly more burst although Chubb also good at that, better footwork and balance than Chubb,  better pad level, also route running and blocking..

Chubb has a lot better Power and better vision than Jones. He has good burst and footwork as well, just not quite as good as Jones. While neither player had many receptions I thought Jones ran some pretty good routes in the games I charted, even though he wasn't getting the ball.

It is possible that my observations and charting are being affected by small sample size for Jones, as I have only charted 4 games for him and 12 for Chubb. Maybe I just happened to chart two of Jones best games as part of my sample and if I charted 10 games some of his flaws or bad games would even out their score from my charting.

Jones has 55.25 points on average for the 4 games I charted, while Chubb has 40.7 for context Jones total score is closer to my score for Guice 59.2 than it is to my score for Chubb.

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I don’t believe Ronald Jones is faster than Nick Chubb. 

““We wear a GPS system, and he ran a 22.3 miles-per-hour on that run,” Sony Michel said of Chubb’s dash a few days later on Nov. 21.”

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57 minutes ago, massraider said:

What does Ronald Jones do better than Chubb?

Jones ii undeniably pass blocks better and has better acceleration. They both are pretty fluid and have good vision, I'll give them a tie for that. 

What does Chubb do better?

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1 minute ago, Bojang0301 said:

I don’t believe Ronald Jones is faster than Nick Chubb. 

““We wear a GPS system, and he ran a 22.3 miles-per-hour on that run,” Sony Michel said of Chubb’s dash a few days later on Nov. 21.”

Link

I dont think Chubb is slow.

When I say I think he is faster than Chubb, I mean that in my charting there is a higher frequency of him demonstrating speed and acceleration to pull away from defenders. For the 4 games I charted 2.25 times per game. For acceleration 2 times per game (he must have been caught from behind.. didn't pull away on one of the speed runs). For Chubb it is 1.5 times per game. Its not a huge difference.

I have watched more games of Ronald Jones than I have charted, and he looks pretty fast to me.

As far as the measurement of Chubbs fastest speed its not something that I have enough data to try to put into context for comparison.

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I believe there is relevance to fastest speed, to what extent I don’t know. @ZWK seems to be messing around with it a bit in his formulas. Unfortunately the NFL is sort of holding hostage of some of the data. College teams it’s certainly not available unless you can find the random link on a google search or twitter. If Michel wasn’t lying about that Chubb run that would have been the fastest run in the NFL last year beating Fournette by just a hair. People should not be sleeping on Chubb, he may have injury and passing down concerns but no bones that he is an absolute freak show.

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4 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

PPR wise

Barkley

Guice

Chubb

Freeman

Jones

Penny

Johnson

Michel 

 

New England passes more than any other team.  They let Dion Lewis go in free agency.  I believe they took Michel because they can keep on the field all three downs and disguise the play.  Michel has natural hands and he is good in pass protection.  I give you that there are other running backs that can catch but will he be dead last on that list?  No

Edited by Donnybrook
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1 minute ago, Donnybrook said:

New England passes more than any other team.  They let Dion Lewis go in free agency.  I believe they took Michel because they can keep on the field all three downs and disguise the play.  Michel has natural hands and he is good in pass protection.  I give you that there is other running backs that can catch but will he be dead last on that list?  No

If you believe that then, of course, he would rank higher. I don't believe it.

My rank was almost totally based on situation.

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There's at least a possibility Michel is a 3 down back. They did pretty well last year with Dion Lewis as such. One thing about the Pats, just when you think you have them figured out....

Michel is the ultimate boom/bust pick.

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1 hour ago, cloppbeast said:

Jones ii undeniably pass blocks better and has better acceleration. They both are pretty fluid and have good vision, I'll give them a tie for that. 

What does Chubb do better?

Everything once you put the ball in their hands.

I think it's craziness to put them in the same category as ball carriers.

Jones runs hard, slashing up that middle, and fighting for yards. I don't think he has the body to do that in the NFL.

 

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28 minutes ago, massraider said:

Everything once you put the ball in their hands.

I think it's craziness to put them in the same category as ball carriers.

Jones runs hard, slashing up that middle, and fighting for yards. I don't think he has the body to do that in the NFL.

To each his own.

But Jones is the same weight as Devonta Freeman and Cook, only a bit taller. And similar to them, he rarely takes a big shot. 

Edited by cloppbeast

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13 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

To each his own.

But Jones is the same weight as Freeman and Cook, only a bit taller. And similar to them, he rarely takes a big shot. 

devonta or Royce freeman?

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34 minutes ago, Donnybrook said:

New England passes more than any other team.  They let Dion Lewis go in free agency.  I believe they took Michel because they can keep on the field all three downs and disguise the play.  Michel has natural hands and he is good in pass protection.  I give you that there are other running backs that can catch but will he be dead last on that list?  No

Even with Lewis you look at his box scores and he only had back to back good weeks at the end of the year.  He wasn't a reliable fantasy option all year until the fantasy playoffs.  White and Burkhead caught 86 passes between them and are still on the roster while Lewis only caught 32 of them.  Burkhead had 8 TD's and Gillislee had 5.  They have not consistently used one guy for a number of years and tend to vary their gameplan dramatically from week to week depending upon their opponent.  You just cannot rely on anybody not named Gronk or Brady on a week to week basis.  Their investment of a first round pick may indicate more usage but I wouldn't count on it unless he proves himself to be the guy for them. 

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3 hours ago, Boone22 said:

Pretty much agree with this. Only thing I might change is moving Hines to the top of tier 3. 

I was reading elsewhere that they may actually view Hines as a slot WR, based on his skillset.

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It is funny reading all these running back scouting reports.  Every running back that runs less that a 4.5 gets compared to Alvin Kamara. 

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How concerning is it that the Redskins have already come out and said Guice is a 2 down back and won't see the field on third down?

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12 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

How concerning is it that the Redskins have already come out and said Guice is a 2 down back and won't see the field on third down?

Not concerning at all.  Not sure what the expectation would have been after WAS drafted him and have Thompson coming back.

Limits his ceiling for sure, but not surprising or cause for alarm.

Edited by cobalt_27
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3 minutes ago, cobalt_27 said:

Not concerning at all.  Not sure what the expectation would have been after WAS drafted him and have Thompson coming back.

Limits his ceiling for sure, but not surprising or cause for alarm.

I see him going 2nd in a lot of these mocks though. Wouldn't we want a 3 down back there? 

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4 minutes ago, cobalt_27 said:

Not concerning at all.  Not sure what the expectation would have been after WAS drafted him and have Thompson coming back.

Limits his ceiling for sure, but not surprising or cause for alarm.

 

Plus, Thompson can only handle so many touches and isn't a paragon of health and durability. Guice will see some 3rd downs and catch some passes

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18 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

How concerning is it that the Redskins have already come out and said Guice is a 2 down back and won't see the field on third down?

If Guice is the type of back people believe he is, then the presence of a guy like Thompson shouldn’t play a huge role in your decision making.  For now Guice is a 2 down back.  Thompson could get hurt, traded or leave via free agency in the near future.  Situations change quickly so I always defer to talent, which Guice has in spades.  If another of the top RBs had a slam dunk situational landing spot I’d maybe consider bumping Guice a spot or two but who exactly would you bump him for? 

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21 minutes ago, Raback said:

If Guice is the type of back people believe he is, then the presence of a guy like Thompson shouldn’t play a huge role in your decision making.  For now Guice is a 2 down back.  Thompson could get hurt, traded or leave via free agency in the near future.  Situations change quickly so I always defer to talent, which Guice has in spades.  If another of the top RBs had a slam dunk situational landing spot I’d maybe consider bumping Guice a spot or two but who exactly would you bump him for? 

Penny? Seahawks have already said he is a 3 down guy. Although Carroll is aways overly optimistic and they didn't do anything to help the o-line. 

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22 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Penny? Seahawks have already said he is a 3 down guy. Although Carroll is aways overly optimistic and they didn't do anything to help the o-line. 

That’s my point.  I like Penny but he’s going to a team with a bad offensive line.  Also Carroll may have said that but Penny has yet to prove he has that skill set, especially pass blocking.  My point is simply that none of the landing spots were Zeke to Dallas good so I think people should stick to their rankings based primarily on talent. 

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13 minutes ago, Raback said:

That’s my point.  I like Penny but he’s going to a team with a bad offensive line.  Also Carroll may have said that but Penny has yet to prove he has that skill set, especially pass blocking.  My point is simply that none of the landing spots were Zeke to Dallas good so I think people should stick to their rankings based primarily on talent. 

I mean I am just talking it through. I don't have a confirmed decision, just floating names. Tampa is a spectacular landing spot but RoJo's lack of college passing reps leaves it a question mark. 

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

I see him going 2nd in a lot of these mocks though. Wouldn't we want a 3 down back there? 

In a vacuum, absolutely.  That’s a value judgment.  I’m only making the point that it shouldn’t be cause for *added* concern that WAS sees him as a 2-down back when that was pretty much established when he got drafted by them.

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29 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I mean I am just talking it through. I don't have a confirmed decision, just floating names. Tampa is a spectacular landing spot but RoJo's lack of college passing reps leaves it a question mark. 

Yup.  And to your previous point about the 1.02, unfortunately when Guice went to WAS and Chubb to CLE, inferior talents like Penny and Rojo have to be considered for that second pick, because of their perceived situations.  I still personally don’t think it’s enough to put Penny or Rojo above Guice and Chubb, but it certainly is a defensible position.

Everyone after Barkley has significant question marks and blemishes.

Edited by cobalt_27
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17 minutes ago, cobalt_27 said:

Yup.  And to your previous point about the 1.02, unfortunately when Guice went to WAS and Chubb to CLE, inferior talents like Penny and Rojo have to be considered for that second pick, because of their perceived situations.  I still personally don’t think it’s enough to put Penny or Rojo above Guice and Chubb, but it certainly is a defensible position.

Everyone after Barkley has significant question marks and blemishes.

How much do we factor in draft capital? How sure are we Guice is better than Penny or Sony or Rojo? 

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3 hours ago, Men-in-Cleats said:

Even with Lewis you look at his box scores and he only had back to back good weeks at the end of the year.  He wasn't a reliable fantasy option all year until the fantasy playoffs.  White and Burkhead caught 86 passes between them and are still on the roster while Lewis only caught 32 of them.  Burkhead had 8 TD's and Gillislee had 5.  They have not consistently used one guy for a number of years and tend to vary their gameplan dramatically from week to week depending upon their opponent.  You just cannot rely on anybody not named Gronk or Brady on a week to week basis.  Their investment of a first round pick may indicate more usage but I wouldn't count on it unless he proves himself to be the guy for them. 

Absolutely right. But I'm willing to assume they'll be taking a little off the shoulders of the 41yo GOAT.  There's plenty of other backs to take carries so there's no guarantee he's the bellcow, but I think we're seeing a change in philosophy there. 

I don't know where to rank Michel and have been offered a 19 first for him after taking him 1.12, but he could be great.

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

Penny? Seahawks have already said he is a 3 down guy. Although Carroll is aways overly optimistic and they didn't do anything to help the o-line. 

Brown and Britt are above average. They signed Fluker. Pocic and Ifedi have another year of experience. Fant will be back from injury. So the O-line should be improved.  They also brought in a new OC and O-line coach with different styles and philosophies favoring the run.

All that being said, they were the worst O-line/running game in the league last year, so that may still be an issue for Penny. 

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

I mean I am just talking it through. I don't have a confirmed decision, just floating names. Tampa is a spectacular landing spot but RoJo's lack of college passing reps leaves it a question mark. 

I agree it does because Jones didn't catch enough passes.

I have watched him enough that I have seen him run good routes however and his hands seem to be fine (from what few opportunities I have seen). The problem is Barkley does not really look for him. I noted many times where Jones was open but Barkley makes a poor decision, throwing an interception over the middle of the field, instead of getting the ball to Jones who had space to work with and was wide open. On the play I am talking about Jones is calling for the ball he is so open. He is running downfield and if Barkley could put it on him, he is getting 20 yards easily. Barkley just doesn't see him.

Jones is such a good blocker that the protection breaks down on several of the plays where he does run routes. Giving USC more incentive to have him block and give their QB a better chance to complete passes downfield.

Only time will tell but I think Jones ability as a receiver is better than the stats or evidence can show yet.

Edited by Biabreakable
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My first stab at it:


RB Saquon Barkley, Giants
-------------------------
RB Nick Chubb, Browns
RB Derrius Guice, Redskins
------------------------
RB Rashaad Penny, Seahawks
RB Royce Freeman, Broncos
RB Sony Michel, Patriots
-------------------------
RB Kerryon Johnson, Lions
RB Ronald Jones, Bucs

 

I have some thoughts on some of the late round guys, but will keep those to myself for now.

 

I usually try to stick pretty closely to NFL draft position, so I'm a little bit leery of putting Penny and Michel so low, but neither really wows me in clips. If I didn't know where these guys were drafted, I would not identify those two as better prospects than Chubb or Guice. And since the draft position is still somewhat close, I'll roll with my gut instinct there.


Freeman is an interesting guy because his tape is kind of vanilla, but he's big and he can play all three downs. He could start and rush for 1k+ as a rookie, but at the same time I don't think you're getting a special talent there.

 

Obviously not a fan of Jones and not totally sold on Johnson. I'd pick Jones as most likely to be a talent bust from this group since he's light, thin, and not very fast. People say Jamaal Charles, but Jamaal Charles can run.

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4 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

How concerning is it that the Redskins have already come out and said Guice is a 2 down back and won't see the field on third down?

Thompson is a very good third down back so people who assume Guice will get three down touches are likely to be disappointed. I don't see him as the RB2 in this draft.

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:2cents:

 

RB Saquon Barkley, Giants


-------------------------
RB Derrius Guice, Redskins

RB Ronald Jones, Bucs

RB Rashaad Penny, Seahawks

RB Sony Michel, Patriots
------------------------

RB Royce Freeman, Broncos

RB Nick Chubb, Browns

-------------------------
RB Kerryon Johnson, Lions

RB Nyheim Hines colts (possibly tier 3 in ppr, definitely tier 3 in best ball)

 

The rest are flyers.
 

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2 hours ago, -OZ- said:

RB Nyheim Hines colts (possibly tier 3 in ppr, definitely tier 3 in best ball)

I just started watching Hines and he impressed. He makes great cuts, has good instincts, and obviously quick and fast. He just looks like a running back to me and can find ways to wiggle himself extra yards. At 5'8" he has a low center of gravity which he uses to his advantage showing more power than he should for under 200 lbs.

The Colts backfield provides a great opportunity. Unless they sign CJ Anderson, it's completely up for grabs. I don't see any other RB there keeping Hines off the field completely. Only his lack of size will hold him back; but it wouldn't surprise me if it didn't. I could even see him playing featured back. . At a minimum he can handle 150-200 carries and most of the receptions out of the back field.

Here's a low risk/high reward pick in the middle of the 2nd.

Edited by cloppbeast
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2 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Here's a low risk/high reward pick at the end of 1st.

Can't agree with you on this.  After the Big 8 RBs, I'd put 3 WRs and 3 QBs ahead of someone like Hines.  And maybe even some TEs, even though I'm loathe to draft them early. He's a mid-2nd at the earliest, but I still wouldn't want to take that risk until I know how the Hines/Mack/Wilkins battle shakes out.  It's possible he could move up to a late-1st if your rookie draft takes place during training camp.

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1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

Can't agree with you on this.  After the Big 8 RBs, I'd put 3 WRs and 3 QBs ahead of someone like Hines.  And maybe even some TEs, even though I'm loathe to draft them early. He's a mid-2nd at the earliest, but I still wouldn't want to take that risk until I know how the Hines/Mack/Wilkins battle shakes out.  It's possible he could move up to a late-1st if your rookie draft takes place during training camp.

Probably a bit early for him. But this is a bad year for WRs. 

Mid second sounds better.

Edited by cloppbeast

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