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Dak Prescott Player Spotlight (1 Viewer)

Justin Bonnema

Justin Bonnema

Moderator
After a hiatus, we're bringing the Player Spotlight threads back to the Shark Pool. For those who are new around here, the Player Spotlights are a key feature of our preseason on the site. They're in-depth looks at key players, including pros and cons, and our staff projections. For years, we also included the best commentary from the Shark Pool. A few years ago, activity in the Pool died down and commentary waned. But, we have confidence in a resurgence.

So here's the deal. Discuss your thoughts about the player in question. We'll pick the best comments from the bunch and use them (and give you credit) in the published articles.

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Dak Prescott, QB - Dallas Cowboys

Without a doubt, waiting on quarterbacks until later rounds has all but become the default strategy in most formats. Dak Prescott offers a bit of an extreme version of that strategy with his current consensus ADP pushing him down to QB21 and 147th overall, which means his services are available in the 12th round or later in 12-team leagues. In short, he's being drafted as a backup.

The drop-off in production from the 2016 season to the 2017 season perhaps justifies the crowd's bearish attitude towards him, but Prescott still managed to finish as QB10 in 12-team leagues (Weeks 1-16) last year, despite a horrendous season for the Cowboys and despite his dip in consistency (was QB6 in 2016). He has now scored six rushing touchdowns each year of his NFL career and still gets the benefit of playing behind an elite offensive line and against defenses that will most likely focus on the Cowboys' rushing attack. Anyone who drafted him last year will most likely forget that he provided six Top-12 weeks at the position, and going into 2018, the Cowboys offer the 12th easiest strength of schedule for quarterbacks. 

So has the market over-corrected itself? With the Cowboys now younger and faster on offense, could we see a big rebound for Prescott and by extension, a massive payoff in draft value? Or is his ADP where it should be? Anyone brave enough to draft him as their QB1?

I'll hang up and listen.

 
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If the O-line and RB can force enough respect that the play action is consistently available.. he will do fine.  This is a QB who has demonstrated he can throw to open receivers.  

If the above does not occur, I see further regression.  This is also a QB who has not demonstrated an ability to throw receivers open.  Witten gone hurts imo.

 
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QB21 in redraft? Seems like incredible value. My guess is he'll be on a lot of championship teams.

He was a low-end QB1 last year despite having Zeke gone for however many games. Now that said, as a dynasty owner, it was painful to watch that stretch of games as the bloom came off the young stud QB rose. He looked pretty hopeless in a few of those. I don't expect him to hit the skids in 2018 but the tantalizing upside we saw end of 2016 has definitely plateaued. He'll be a career low-tier QB1 but with his rushing TDs will have a few weeks a year where he is QB1. Perfect QBBC candidate especially at that ADP. 

 
Prescott feels like maybe the hardest QB to project this year. He was the #1 overall QB for about half of last season, and unstartable for the other half. I think Dez and Witten could fall under the addition by subtraction logic, but I also wonder if defenses have figured Prescott out. I think his 12 rush TD's in 2 years, are a little unsustainable, as he's not a Newton-like rusher. I also think his rookie year efficiency, was a mirage, as 8 YPA, and only 4 INT's on 459 attempts were also unsustainable.

My projections: 3,600-21-12 passing 200-3 rushing. A mid-tier QB2 for me.

 
The QB position in FF is so plentiful in terms of options that where Dak currently is via ADP is not about having good QB depth but rather, can I sacrifice a roster spot versus mining the WW should I need a QB.

Someone drafting QB1 late in the draft might feel REALLY good about starting that guy week after week.  Via FFC, the 2016 MVP - Matt Ryan is QB11.  Philip RIvers is QB15.  Rivers threw for 4500 yards and 28 TD's (against 10 INT's).  Where does that leave Dak...?  Well, what we know about the DAL passing game is:

1) Loss of three prominent players (Dez, Witten, Butler), being replaced by Allen Hurns and Michael Gallup (primarily).

2) What made Dak an effective FF QB1 in 2016 was his efficiency, not his volume.  His 67.8% completion rate (v 62.9% in 2017), his YPA (7.99 v 6.78) and 23/4 TD:INT ratio.  Doing a 4pt for TD -2pt for INT calculation = 2016 (84 points) - 2017 (62 points).

There is simply so much depth at QB, that it's completely plausible to take your chances on your QB2 being on the WW versus rostering a player you are high on at RB/WR.  Perhaps even a 3rd DST is you have taken a streaming approach to the position.

 
@TheDirtyWord I think that's a good assessment in regards to taking flyers on late-round running backs or wide receivers (and tight ends) and letting waivers decide who your QB2 will be. I love that strategy. But I also think Dak's numbers were impacted by ineffective teammates like Dez Bryant. @travdogg nailed it with "addition by subtraction" regarding Bryant and Witten. Scott Linehan will hopefully reformat this offense to play to the strengths of the speed and versatility they now have on the field, including Tavon Austin, who I know won't get much love and that's understandable, but getting younger and faster should help Prescott a ton. Of course, rookies and new teammates breed all sorts of other problems.

 
Justin Bonnema said:
@TheDirtyWord I think that's a good assessment in regards to taking flyers on late-round running backs or wide receivers (and tight ends) and letting waivers decide who your QB2 will be. I love that strategy. But I also think Dak's numbers were impacted by ineffective teammates like Dez Bryant. @travdogg nailed it with "addition by subtraction" regarding Bryant and Witten. Scott Linehan will hopefully reformat this offense to play to the strengths of the speed and versatility they now have on the field, including Tavon Austin, who I know won't get much love and that's understandable, but getting younger and faster should help Prescott a ton. Of course, rookies and new teammates breed all sorts of other problems.
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Dez is/was polarizing.  And ultimately, I do think the juice was no longer worth the squeeze related to the Cowboys putting up with him.  Also, why have a guy on the tail end of his career (or at least approaching) it, who can be a disruptive personality in the spot of de facto WR1 with a young QB.  I get that.

But 'addition by subtraction' doesn't necessarily mean for the upcoming season. Any franchise architect has to take the long view and quite frankly, the players that are going to be in key roles for DAL (WR1/WR2/TE) are going to be bottom tier talent at this moment in time.  Let's recognize that the one good season Allen Hurns had was during that (in retrospect) weird season in JAX where he was still WR2 to Allen Robinson.  Right now - Hurns is DAL's WR1.  Is he going to be more/less effective than Dez last year?  Dez's stock may be low at the moment, but to say that the Cowboys are better at WR now (in the short term) than they were last year?  I can't agree at this juncture.

 
TheDirtyWord said:
Dez is/was polarizing.  And ultimately, I do think the juice was no longer worth the squeeze related to the Cowboys putting up with him.  Also, why have a guy on the tail end of his career (or at least approaching) it, who can be a disruptive personality in the spot of de facto WR1 with a young QB.  I get that.

But 'addition by subtraction' doesn't necessarily mean for the upcoming season. Any franchise architect has to take the long view and quite frankly, the players that are going to be in key roles for DAL (WR1/WR2/TE) are going to be bottom tier talent at this moment in time.  Let's recognize that the one good season Allen Hurns had was during that (in retrospect) weird season in JAX where he was still WR2 to Allen Robinson.  Right now - Hurns is DAL's WR1.  Is he going to be more/less effective than Dez last year?  Dez's stock may be low at the moment, but to say that the Cowboys are better at WR now (in the short term) than they were last year?  I can't agree at this juncture.
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I'm not overly excited about Hurns. But when healthy, he has been excellent. Unfortunately, I can't say the same about Terrance Williams (assuming he even stays on the team). I also thought this tweet was interesting regarding Beasley playing outside more, which would mean more snaps in the slot for Hurns. To loop this back to the quarterback, you're right that he's not surrounded by a lot of talent, but creativity can overcome that and I think investing a late-round pick in Prescott could payoff this year (obviously I'm in the minority with that take).

 
travdogg said:
Prescott feels like maybe the hardest QB to project this year. He was the #1 overall QB for about half of last season, and unstartable for the other half. I think Dez and Witten could fall under the addition by subtraction logic, but I also wonder if defenses have figured Prescott out. I think his 12 rush TD's in 2 years, are a little unsustainable, as he's not a Newton-like rusher. I also think his rookie year efficiency, was a mirage, as 8 YPA, and only 4 INT's on 459 attempts were also unsustainable.

My projections: 3,600-21-12 passing 200-3 rushing. A mid-tier QB2 for me.
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That's a reasonable projection and not all that far off from David Dodds and Bob Henry.

 
League and SB MVP. 19-0

pass attempts 666

passingyards 7,888

Passing touchdowns 77

Interceptions 0

rushing yards 2,290

rushing touchdowns 34 

 
Dak may be one of the most overrated QBs in the league. He had an impressive rookie season, and then last year teams seemed to have figured him out. We've seen this with many other QBs. qb21 is possibly a little low, but not by much. I see Dak as a good qb2 option for folks, but not much more. I don't need to get into the supporting cast, because I don't think that's the problem. The offense will run through Zeke as it should, and Dak will do enough to manage the offense enough to not lose games. I think the mojo wore off and he's revealed for what he is: an average to above average QB. 

what that means for Dak as far as fantasy goes: he wont cost you much but might get you close to a low end qb1 numbers as I think the depth is there at QB whe 10 or 11-18 wont be that big of a difference. perhaps this is the year of the ww qb. 

 
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In reality, almost no team asks less of their QB than Dallas does of Prescott.  He's a one-read guy operating behind an elite line with an elite RB.  Can you imagine what this guy would look like in Miami or Buffalo?  Go ahead, picture it.

On the other hand, he's proven to be trustworthy of what he's asked to do...which is mostly to either hand the ball off, connect on his first read, or tuck it.

His legs give him a chance to be a low end QB1, but if the situation becomes anything less than optimal, his value plummets.  After taking away two of his best receivers, I don't see how he is even top 15.  Yes, I know the stats for the first half of last season.  I've sold everywhere I have him and couldn't wait to unload him.

The Dallas offense is entirely unimaginative and he's the perfect guy to run it.  He may have a shot next year after Garrett gets fired, but he'll cost nothing to acquire by then anyway.

Sell and avoid.  Sell and avoid.

 
Forget the projections for a minute and look at some tape.  He throws a terrible ball. He makes decent decisions and adds some mobility but he’s throwing ducks out there. He gets some nice passes off but he also has a lot of passes that wobble down the field. He has the arm strength. He’s an athletic game manager that doesn’t take risks and limits mistakes. His supporting cast is questionable. He throws well on the run but puts himself out there too much and won’t sustain a healthy career if he keeps it up. 

2017 highlights looks more like a navy game

That’s my take. I picked him up during offseason waivers just before tomorrow went down, and now I’ve sold all my shares. I just don’t see the ceiling for 300/3 games, even with his rushing totals 

 
Snorkelson said:
Forget the projections for a minute and look at some tape.  He throws a terrible ball. He makes decent decisions and adds some mobility but he’s throwing ducks out there. He gets some nice passes off but he also has a lot of passes that wobble down the field. He has the arm strength. He’s an athletic game manager that doesn’t take risks and limits mistakes. His supporting cast is questionable. He throws well on the run but puts himself out there too much and won’t sustain a healthy career if he keeps it up. 

2017 highlights looks more like a navy game

That’s my take. I picked him up during offseason waivers just before tomorrow went down, and now I’ve sold all my shares. I just don’t see the ceiling for 300/3 games, even with his rushing totals 
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I think it's too early to dump shares of him but given the depth at the position I don't blame you. I respectfully disagree that he throws a terrible ball. He has thrown terrible balls, to be sure, but even the highlight reel you posted shows some great throws. Checkout this clip of every interception from 2017. Kind of a mixed bag: some bad throws, bad decisions, terrible footwork. But also some tough luck with deflected passes/hit as thrown/drops. He needs to improve but to win in redraft leagues, you don't need a QB regularly hitting a 300/3 ceiling (though that would be great). You just need an athletic game manager that isn't going to posts duds week in and week out, which I get is the concern with Prescott.

ETA: Prescott was one of 12 QBs last year to have at least four games with three or more passing touchdowns. Only Brady, Wilson, and Wentz had more than four. Perhaps Prescott's ceiling deserves a bit more love.

 
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Agreed Joe.

I've been wrong on Prescott both years. The first year I was convinced having to start a raw, mid-rounder in place of Romo meant disaster and yet Prescott was a borderline MVP candidate. I assume a full offseason as the established starter in Year 2 would mean greatness, and we know how that turned out. His ADP is so low it's hard not to love Prescott as your QB2 because we know he can deliver elite QB1 numbers under the right circumstances. 

 
All I have been hearing during last season and during this offseason was how Dak took a step back and has looked horrible. I then see an article that he had like a top 5 deep ball last year.  So does he have a below average intermediate and short range ball or is the community overreacting?

 
smbkrypt24 said:
All I have been hearing during last season and during this offseason was how Dak took a step back and has looked horrible. I then see an article that he had like a top 5 deep ball last year.  So does he have a below average intermediate and short range ball or is the community overreacting?
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I can't vouch for this person's analytics, but some interesting stats about how Prescott handled various defenses, including depth of throw: https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2018/05/20/dissecting-dak-breakdown-of-prescotts-spatial-throwing-accuracy/

 
Justin Bonnema said:
I can't vouch for this person's analytics, but some interesting stats about how Prescott handled various defenses, including depth of throw: https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2018/05/20/dissecting-dak-breakdown-of-prescotts-spatial-throwing-accuracy/
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Thanks for this article.  It looked like a lot of work for whoever put that together.  I was really into it and saw it was from Cowboyswire webpage so I hope that didn't skew any stats.  

However, what I got from this was that he struggled on Dez's side of the field in deep routes against deep zone, intermediate routes against single high matchups, and deep and intermediate against 2 high zone.   

Also, his worst area if we break it down as deep, intermediate, and short is intermediate by far. 

 
smbkrypt24 said:
Thanks for this article.  It looked like a lot of work for whoever put that together.  I was really into it and saw it was from Cowboyswire webpage so I hope that didn't skew any stats.  

However, what I got from this was that he struggled on Dez's side of the field in deep routes against deep zone, intermediate routes against single high matchups, and deep and intermediate against 2 high zone.   

Also, his worst area if we break it down as deep, intermediate, and short is intermediate by far. 
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Yup. This plot from airyards.com shows his completion% compared to the rest of the NFL in 2017. He was great short (obviously) and struggled in the short-intermediate area. If you include 2016, he was pretty much above average all over the field.

DakAY.png

 
Justin Bonnema said:
Yup. This plot from airyards.com shows his completion% compared to the rest of the NFL in 2017. He was great short (obviously) and struggled in the short-intermediate area. If you include 2016, he was pretty much above average all over the field.

View attachment 2879
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I would venture to say that most of the leagues QBs worst throw would be the intermediate route.  But by comparing it to the league average would help differentiate each QB in these areas.  Good or bad. Thank you for the article and chart.

 
smbkrypt24 said:
Thanks for this article.  It looked like a lot of work for whoever put that together.  I was really into it and saw it was from Cowboyswire webpage so I hope that didn't skew any stats.  

However, what I got from this was that he struggled on Dez's side of the field in deep routes against deep zone, intermediate routes against single high matchups, and deep and intermediate against 2 high zone.   

Also, his worst area if we break it down as deep, intermediate, and short is intermediate by far. 
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The trick with this is that there are (at least) two possible causes:

1) Dak somehow gets more accurate the harder he heaves the football (unlikely)

2) Dak is a conservative decision-maker, and thus only throws deep in the first place when he sees a broken coverage, leading to a relatively easy completion.

My money is on the second, which means, while the airyards charts are pretty, I’m not sure they are telling us anything predictive.  Also, since most third and longs are going to be routes where the first down marker is at intermediate range and the defense is sitting in a pattern designed to prevent that conversion, it wouldn’t surprise me if intermediate throws are harder than deep throws for most QBs.  But I haven’t done the math to prove that...

 
Arodin said:
The trick with this is that there are (at least) two possible causes:

1) Dak somehow gets more accurate the harder he heaves the football (unlikely)

2) Dak is a conservative decision-maker, and thus only throws deep in the first place when he sees a broken coverage, leading to a relatively easy completion.

My money is on the second, which means, while the airyards charts are pretty, I’m not sure they are telling us anything predictive.  Also, since most third and longs are going to be routes where the first down marker is at intermediate range and the defense is sitting in a pattern designed to prevent that conversion, it wouldn’t surprise me if intermediate throws are harder than deep throws for most QBs.  But I haven’t done the math to prove that...
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If we go with number two as the reason for Dak being top 5 in deep ball are we saying coverage broke down more against the Cowboys?  I don't particularly remember the credentials for being high on the list, but if it is strictly (or heavily weighted on) completion percentage your argument would make sense. If it is number of touchdowns or any other measure it would seem Dak would get docked for all areas, but completion percentage.

 
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smbkrypt24 said:
If we go with number two as the reason for Dak being top 5 in deep ball are we saying coverage broke down more against the Cowboys?  I don't particularly remember the credentials for being high on the list, but if it is strictly (or heavily weighted on) completion percentage your argument would make sense. If it is number of touchdowns or any other measure it would seem Dak would get docked for all areas, but completion percentage.
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It could mean coverage broke more often against the Cowboys.  But the more likely explanation is other QBs being more willing to take chances throwing into coverage deep than Dak.  That’s what I was suggesting.  

*I* could achieve a top rated deep passing rank if I never threw more than five yards unless the defender had fallen down.  I might only complete one deep pass, but I’d have a perfect deep passer rating!  (Assuming, of course I could survive even one hit from an NFL defender to be able to reach that point.  I can’t.)

 
Arodin said:
It could mean coverage broke more often against the Cowboys.  But the more likely explanation is other QBs being more willing to take chances throwing into coverage deep than Dak.  That’s what I was suggesting.  

*I* could achieve a top rated deep passing rank if I never threw more than five yards unless the defender had fallen down.  I might only complete one deep pass, but I’d have a perfect deep passer rating!  (Assuming, of course I could survive even one hit from an NFL defender to be able to reach that point.  I can’t.)
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The point I was trying to make was that if the metric measuring how good the deep ball is is only based on completion percentage or passer rating would pertain if it resulted in touchdown, then yes Dak would win this.  If they weigh total TDs or total yards thrown on deep balls that would greatly hurt Dak's numbers if as you say he only throws deep when coverage is broken.

 
smbkrypt24 said:
If we go with number two as the reason for Dak being top 5 in deep ball are we saying coverage broke down more against the Cowboys?  I don't particularly remember the credentials for being high on the list, but if it is strictly (or heavily weighted on) completion percentage your argument would make sense. If it is number of touchdowns or any other measure it would seem Dak would get docked for all areas, but completion percentage.
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He was top 5 efficiency, not production.  He was near the bottom on deep attempts if i recall.

 
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smbkrypt24 said:
Gotcha, I wasn't sure what the article I read was using to measure it.  Thanks for helping out.
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He was #21 in yardage beyond 20 yards and #27 in deep attempts.

So he was great on the deep ball... only he never threw the deep ball.  Draw your own conclusions.

 
This is why it will be so important for the running game to demand more in the box.  If the play action isn't available, Dak is not a playmaker through the air.

 
matuski said:
He was #21 in yardage beyond 20 yards and #27 in deep attempts.

So he was great on the deep ball... only he never threw the deep ball.  Draw your own conclusions.
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He was 32nd in deep passing attempt% and 5th in deep passing completion%, so this supports your argument.

matuski said:
This is why it will be so important for the running game to demand more in the box.  If the play action isn't available, Dak is not a playmaker through the air.
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100% this!

 
Put me in the camp of further regression.  He just doesn't look like a good qb to me and he's not as accurate or as mobile as russel wilson to really move the pocket and find the open recievers.

 
Alex Smith 2.0. Dak won't lose you many games but he's not going to carry the team on his shoulders to the postseason. He needs a strong supporting cast to shine.

 
I love all the naysayers. It’s gonna feel good being the only guy on the bandwagon. No room for any of you you after th season starts. 

 
I was surprised by some of the scoring referenced in the spotlight article, so I looked up how he did last season in one of my PPR dynasty leagues:

  1. 19.8 points vs NYG = QB14
  2. 22.3 points at DEN = QB7
  3. 24.75 points at ARI = QB15
  4. 27.1 points vs LAR = QB8
  5. 34.25 points vs GB = QB2
  6. Bye
  7. 32.3 points at SF = QB3
  8. 8.75 points at WAS = QB26
  9. 29.15 points vs KC = QB4
  10. 19.0 points at ATL = QB17 (Elliott out)
  11. 8.25 points vs PHI = QB29 (Elliott out)
  12. 8.95 points vs LAC = QB30 (Elliott out)
  13. 15.9 points vs WAS = QB24T (Elliott out)
  14. 29.9 points at NYG = QB4 (Elliott out)
  15. 19.8 points at OAK = QB20 (Elliott out)
  16. 11.15 points vs SEA = QB28
  17. 14.55 points at PHI = QB22
3 single digit fantasy point games by a QB is brutal. 2 of those occurred without Elliott, although those games were against PHI and LAC, which would have been tough matchups for Dak even with Elliott.

On the flip side, 4 top 4 finishes is impressive, although it is worth noting that Rodgers was out in 3 of those weeks and Watson was out in 2 of them. I wonder how many of his owners started Dak for all of those performances.

This data does not change my perspective on him. I do not see him as a QB1 in 2018.

 
tombonneau said:
QB21 in redraft? Seems like incredible value. My guess is he'll be on a lot of championship teams.

He was a low-end QB1 last year despite having Zeke gone for however many games. Now that said, as a dynasty owner, it was painful to watch that stretch of games as the bloom came off the young stud QB rose. He looked pretty hopeless in a few of those. I don't expect him to hit the skids in 2018 but the tantalizing upside we saw end of 2016 has definitely plateaued. He'll be a career low-tier QB1 but with his rushing TDs will have a few weeks a year where he is QB1. Perfect QBBC candidate especially at that ADP. 
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Win leagues? With that receiving core? Lol. In redraft it’s all about upside at qb.maybe he’ll be qb 10 but that’s still useless. Good chance he’ll be on waivers during bye weeks if you really want him.

 
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tombonneau said:
QB21 in redraft? Seems like incredible value. My guess is he'll be on a lot of championship teams.

He was a low-end QB1 last year despite having Zeke gone for however many games. Now that said, as a dynasty owner, it was painful to watch that stretch of games as the bloom came off the young stud QB rose. He looked pretty hopeless in a few of those. I don't expect him to hit the skids in 2018 but the tantalizing upside we saw end of 2016 has definitely plateaued. He'll be a career low-tier QB1 but with his rushing TDs will have a few weeks a year where he is QB1. Perfect QBBC candidate especially at that ADP. 
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I had him last year and while the variance between good and poor games was way too high for what I want out of my starter, grabbing a couple QBs late with Dak being the 2nd is certainly worth the upside.  I agree one of the better values in the draft especially in best ball formats.

 
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