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Sheldon Vogt

IDP prospects in rookie drafts

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I've been too busy to even work on research. With a deep class, I'll likely lean heavily on landing spot and a few trusted people/sites to help shape up my IDP draft board. 

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The top 2 guys in most leagues will be Devin White and Devin Bush. 2 great young looking LB in this class that are a tier ahead of Mack Wilson. They will both be first rounders and Wilson probably 2nd. 

Than comes all the edge guys. Nick Bosa, Josh Allen, Rashan Gary,  Montez Sweat, Clelim Ferrell, Brian Burns. These guys value will all depend on if going to a 4-3 or 3-4. If drafted by SF, Oakland, TB, Detroit, Buffalo, Miami, Atlanta, Seattle, or KC and all will have great value. Would be picks 3, 4, 5 with Wilson 6th. If drafted to 3-4 unless Allen to Jets and value is non existent. Allen would be outside top 10

Than you get to the 2 Donald maybe impact. Quinnen Williams and Ed Oliver both interesting.,either could be real good or useful. In DT required leagues, the value night increase

After this is more draft spot and situation. Guys like Blake Cashman, Germaine Pratt, TJ Edwards, Terrill Hanks, Drue Tranquill, Vosean Joseph, Tavon Coney, David Long, Javani Takitati, Bobby Okereke, Tre LamarCameron Smith and Jon Giles-Harris have been all over the place in mocks and rankings. I think spot for chance to start. Like Cincy, Denver, Oakland, Baltimore, Pittsburgh MLB or ILB might have nice value. Cleveland, Indy, Rams, GB, NO might have value also. If drafting today, they would all be outside top 10 but the Cincy guy would move up nicely if drafted by round 4. 

A few more guys who might have value at DE still. Guys like Jayon Ferguson, Joe Jackson, Charles Ohemineu, Oshane Ximines, Anthony Nelson and Jacai Polite could also have value. 

Some other DT like Lawrence, Wilkins, Simmons are also interesting depending on landing spots

There is 7 nice S by the looks of it. They will be drafted from end of 1st in NFL to 3rd round. But my value on them is low to mention. Adderley, Rapp, Gardner, Abrahm, Thornhill, Johnson being few names

i do mocks for my league done on mocks online if 3 rounds or more. 14 team league with Superflex 5 pts TD, TE premium with 2 PPR for them but start 11 O guys and 11 d. 

White has been end of 1, early 2 in most. Bush comes quickly. Wilson usually between pick 20 - 27. Bosa and Allen if going SF, Oak go between 17-24. Usually get one more as few teams at bottom of 2nd have DL issues. 3rd round sees run on the nice DL and than LB that go to nice situations and drafted in 3rd round. All over the place though. The DL in list 1 go quickly in the 3rd. If they go to a 4-3. Allen if Jets is end of 3rd or early 4th. Bosa goes early(18) because we have incompetent owner if drafted by Arizona or Jets because he owns Joey. But he should go mid 3rd at earliest. DB goes 4th round as I put little value but someone will draft earlier than I would. 2nd best scoring unit and got all on waivers. 

 

If I did draft today, I should have added. Not knowing spots and just on talent and guesses

  1. White. He I’d going top 15. Like all spots. Roquan like
  2. Bush. Safe pick. Probably top 20
  3. Bosa. I think good chance at SF but Ariz and Jets rishy
  4. Wilson. Again. Safe pick. Going late 1st or 2nd
  5. Allen. Tons of risk as mocked to Jets too muc
  6. Burns. Risky also but maybe not as much. GB terrible
  7. Gary. A little safer as DL for sure but is it end in 3-4
  8. Ferrell. I like him but so many scary spots
  9. Sweat. . Like guys above. Very risky
  10. Cashman. A little Esch in him. Again. Does he go late 2nd or 5th. 
  11. Williams. Pretty safe pick but upside lower. But if Donald like he could pay off
  12. Edwards. Plz like but 3rd to 5th round range
  13. Coney. Risk again. That is this class today. Better feel after draft
  14. Ferguson. Question is will he be just rusher
  15. Oliver. He would be higher but just DL in my league. Safer but size has been talked about
Edited by Crippler
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Round 1 is in the books. I still haven't done my homework, especially on the IDP side. So this is just my first take based on landing spots and likely positional designations.

Nick Bosa DE SF - Obvious pick, great landing spot as a 4-3 DE. Will be the first DE off the board in rookie drafts. 
Quinnen Williams DT NYJ - Ouch. 3-4 NT designation (already listed there on ourlads & roto) hurts his IDP value. Probably in on passing downs but still a tough landing spot.
Clelin Ferrell DE OAK - A good landing spot, likely the starting DE opposite Key in a 4-3. OAK as a team seems like a wildcard to me when predicting production. It all depends on Carr. The weapons around him got upgraded quite a bit in FA and drafting Jacobs. 
Devin White LB TB - Another obvious pick that will be the first LB off the board. Stud IDP for years. Gut punch for those of us hoping for a cheap steal when adding Deone Bucannon.
Josh Allen LB JAX - Stud player but will he be OLB or DE? Roto lists as DE but ourlads as SLB. What a difference a few letters make. It'll be tough to draft him for me, as I know others in my leagues will draft the talent regardless of designation.
Ed Oliver DT BUF - 4-3 DT that lands in a starting role, presumably. Solid choice in DT required leagues and will probably be cheap in rookie drafts with so much IDP talent in this draft.
Devin Bush LB PIT - Another stud ILB landing in a great spot. He'll be highly drafted and likely the only LB worth owning in PIT, forcing Williams/Bostic/etc. into smaller roles. I'm hoping Williams stays as the top ILB next to him but that's because I own him in a few leagues. :D
Rashan Gary DE GB - Drafted to a 3-4 so the value for IDP isn't great. Listed as EDGE everywhere pre-draft so he's likely an OLB. Like Allen, his talent will get him drafted higher than I'm willing to go to get him in my rookie drafts.  
Christian Wilkins DT MIA - Instantly becomes a top DT target for me in DT required leagues. Miami looks like a bad team on offense and that bodes well for IDP production. 
Brian Burns LB CAR - An EDGE guy that is slotted in as 4-3 DE on all sites today. Definitely looks like a high upside target that should be fairly inexpensive in rookie drafts b/c of the IDP depth. 
Dexter Lawrence DT NYG - Another DT designated at NT. To make matters worse, he's got Dalvin Tomlinson to compete with at that spot. Probably not drafting until very late in rookie drafts without some clarification of roles. 
Jeffery Simmons DT TEN - May not play this year and may be an NT? Double whammy. Could be a nice IR stash candidate for leagues that use it. Stash him and hope 2020 brings a system change or a DE designation. 
Darnell Savage Jr. S GB - There's a lot to like, especially when @Joe 8ryant calls him "a
Bob Sanders-esque safety" in today's email. If you were somehow holding out hope that Josh Jones was going to be a stud, the addition of Savage via draft and Amos via FA should make it clear Jones is not happening. 
Montez Sweat DE WAS - Another casualty of the wrong IDP system. EDGE listing makes him an OLB in a 3-4. Not a good option unless it's big-play / sack-heavy scoring leagues. 
Johnathan Abram S OAK - Really like the landing spot here. 2018 was a revolving door for OAK at S, with random names populating our posts through pre-season and Karl Joseph bouncing from starter to backup, then back to starter in-season. Another one with a very positive IDP note in Joe's email today, as a "
big nickel linebacker/Kam Chancellor type safety" that makes me drool. 
Jerry Tillery DT LAC - Another nice option for DT leagues, as a 4-3 DT that steps into a starting role after Philon moved on in FA. 
L. J. Collier DE SEA - A fairly obvious need pick to fill the hole left by the Clark trade. Looks like he's easily the best DE on their roster so the opportunity should be high for IDP production. 
Deandre Baker CB NYG - Does anybody care about CBs? Even if you do, do you want a NYG CB when the offense is Barkely or bust? I don't.

 

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On 4/26/2019 at 7:53 AM, Flying Elvis said:

Devin Bush LB PIT - Another stud ILB landing in a great spot. He'll be highly drafted and likely the only LB worth owning in PIT, forcing Williams/Bostic/etc. into smaller roles. I'm hoping Williams stays as the top ILB next to him but that's because I own him in a few leagues.

It'll almost certainly be Vince in '19 and probably '20.  Bostic's already been cut, Vince is getting paid (sorta) and, honestly, the rest of their ILB crop isn't starter worthy. It's the biggest reason why they went so hard for Bush in the first place.

 

Edited by 5-ish Finkle
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2 minutes ago, 5-ish Finkle said:

It'll almost certainly be Vince in '19 and probably '20.  Bostic's already been cut, Vince is getting paid (sorta) and, honestly, the rest of their ILB crop isn't starter worthy. It's the biggest reason why they went so hard for Bush in the first place.

 

Thanks for that... didn't see the cut news on Bostic. How big a threat is Mark Barron? Roto has Williams/Bush starting. Ourlads has Barron/Bush starting. Both guys have similar costs, so it's not a follow the money situation. I'd lean towards the incumbent and assume it's Vince's job to lose. 

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3 hours ago, Flying Elvis said:

Thanks for that... didn't see the cut news on Bostic. How big a threat is Mark Barron? Roto has Williams/Bush starting. Ourlads has Barron/Bush starting. Both guys have similar costs, so it's not a follow the money situation. I'd lean towards the incumbent and assume it's Vince's job to lose. 

I would lean Barron over Williams.  I think he is better for fantasy purposes - assuming he is healthy.  But the health is a big concern.  He seems to have an issue staying on the field.  Safer would be Williams but I think Barron has better upside (along with a higher risk).

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11 hours ago, Flying Elvis said:

Thanks for that... didn't see the cut news on Bostic. How big a threat is Mark Barron? Roto has Williams/Bush starting. Ourlads has Barron/Bush starting. Both guys have similar costs, so it's not a follow the money situation. I'd lean towards the incumbent and assume it's Vince's job to lose. 

Williams wears the green dot, too, so there's that.  Until someone unseats him in that regard he likely isn't going anywhere, IMO anyway, as far as the starting lineup is concerned (Now, I'm also guessing they expect Bush to relatively quickly take over the dot too, but we can't see the future) .  Plus, he's a good interior blitzer, which Butler has liked to utilize frequently to date.  He's signed through 2021, is a veteran of the current DC's system, and can play all three downs if he must.  Vince has warts, particularly in coverage, but as long as Butler is there I don't see them benching Williams over the next couple of seasons if he stays in one piece and the roster makeup remains similar.

Mark Barron, in my mind, was always sort of a hedge against being able to find ILB help in the draft.  Since they did, he potentially becomes a very nice bridge to Bush being a full-time starter, if that takes longer than expected, or a quality reserve/better coverage option in subs than Vince if Bush comes in and blows ish up from jump.   Barron has to be healthy though, because if he isn't....meh.  Last year his quality of play really took a nosedive, due in no small part to injuries.  Needs to prove he's got that in the rear-view.

 

Edited by 5-ish Finkle
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In David Larkins idp rookie rankings he mentions Q.Williams possible switch to a 4-3 end could be big.  

Are Jets switching to a 4-3 and would Williams play end? 

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All off-season info has consistently said the Jets will remain a 3-4. With Mclendon at 33 years old, even if they did switch to 4-3 it'd be a stretch to see Williams as a DE. He's NT (likely taking over Mclendon's snaps) and a DT if they go 4-3. They even introduced him as NT during the draft... don't see how that would result in a kick out to DE even if they did switch to 4-3 in 2020.

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My drafts are kicking off and I noticed a couple of things.  Josh Allen is listed on MFL as LB but Roto as DE.  There may be people scared off by the LB designation as JAX does play the Bradley 4-3 that has a strong EDGE tendency with their SAM, but he's a hand in the dirt guy to me all the way.  Drafting with confidence for a position change.  Same story with Justin Houston although he's far from a rookie.

Bosa just went at #21. After the first DB.  SMH at that, although I didn't want him either due to the positional valuation.  He'd have to be disruptively good to justify that.  While I believe he can do it, the odds aren't in favor.  I wonder how far Ferrel will drop - I'd much rather have him if he's there in the 4th and he might be with as much as the pick was panned.  I don't care if it was a reach, the dude has talent and there's nothing standing in his way of getting full time pass rusher snaps at a minimum.

I am flummoxed with the LB's after White.  Bush feels very overrated to me (is that my inner Buckeye though, and can I trust him to be rational?) so not liking his cost of acquisition and the air really came out of the Mack Wilson balloon.  Who are these other guys?  Tavai?  Takitaki (probably gonna draft him just so I can shout his name)?  Banogu/Pratt/Barton/Okere?  What is going on here?

I continue not to give one iota about the DB's.  I only even put Abram on my draft list, at 39 (he went 20), because he's a Raider but the ranking was certainly a subliminial queue not to draft him.  I'd rather sell my 5th's for $3 and grab someone off waivers for $1.

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RW calls Allen a LB on his player page but they have him in the Jax depth chart as a DE... Interesting. Something to watch

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Allen is one I would love to get if he's not too expensive. If he slides to round 4 he's likely to be a steal but the designation concern makes him a high risk selection that I'm not willing to pay for earlier than that. I absolutely want him as a stash guy with Yannick Ngakoue in his final year and Calais Campbell expiring in 2020. Allen could be a starting DE as early as next year. Then again, maybe they sign Yannick and suddenly things look bad for another season as LB? 

 

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11 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

My drafts are kicking off and I noticed a couple of things.  Josh Allen is listed on MFL as LB but Roto as DE.  There may be people scared off by the LB designation as JAX does play the Bradley 4-3 that has a strong EDGE tendency with their SAM, but he's a hand in the dirt guy to me all the way.  Drafting with confidence for a position change.  Same story with Justin Houston although he's far from a rookie.

Bosa just went at #21. After the first DB.  SMH at that, although I didn't want him either due to the positional valuation.  He'd have to be disruptively good to justify that.  While I believe he can do it, the odds aren't in favor.  I wonder how far Ferrel will drop - I'd much rather have him if he's there in the 4th and he might be with as much as the pick was panned.  I don't care if it was a reach, the dude has talent and there's nothing standing in his way of getting full time pass rusher snaps at a minimum.

I am flummoxed with the LB's after White.  Bush feels very overrated to me (is that my inner Buckeye though, and can I trust him to be rational?) so not liking his cost of acquisition and the air really came out of the Mack Wilson balloon.  Who are these other guys?  Tavai?  Takitaki (probably gonna draft him just so I can shout his name)?  Banogu/Pratt/Barton/Okere?  What is going on here?

I continue not to give one iota about the DB's.  I only even put Abram on my draft list, at 39 (he went 20), because he's a Raider but the ranking was certainly a subliminial queue not to draft him.  I'd rather sell my 5th's for $3 and grab someone off waivers for $1.

Thanks for this post. Agree on Bosa in that he's probably going to be taken too high for my tastes. The LBs drop off rather quickly but I actually think Bush is a bit underrated, at least compared to White. I don't see any great difference between them for fantasy and actually like Bush's situation a bit better. I liked Cashman quite a bit but the Jets landing spot is a real downer. I'd take a shot on Tavai purely on draft capital and Pratt due to situation/opportunity.

Completely agree on the DBs - there's basically no one I'm interested in this year at their value. Maybe Abram if he fell (but he won't), possibly Rapp as a S/LB hybrid type since the Rams LBs depth isn't good, but other than that....Thornhill maybe? I have to look into safety a bit more but as of now it's not that interesting. I'd rather take late WR/RB/TE fliers.

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Not sure why everyone is so high on White. Aside from his athleticism he doesn't seem to have the football IQ as someone like Roquon Smith. Watching his tape, the other LB actually stood out more than he did. Can someone explain what they see in White aside from his measurables? 

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White now isnt much different than Edmunds this time last year. There is at least some projection to his success potential. 

I'm in the minority, but I'd rather have Bush. But like last year with Rocky and Edmunds the difference is so tiny it isnt worth fighting about. 

The takeaway is you want them. 

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Lb's after Bush and White:

Okereke should be good, but Leonard's presence caps his ceiling even when he gets to 100% snaps.

I dont see whatever Detroit saw in Tavai. I also dont think they will be successful and the likelihood of a regime change with no ties to him are high, so I'm just ignoring him.

Pratt should be fine. But he will never be more than fine. Whether you should target him or not depends on how you feel about players like that. 

Me? I prefer lotto tickets. Greenlaw and BBK have higher ceilings, substantially lower floors, and we should know what to do with them fairly quickly late summer/early fall. 

If you're patient Takitaki is the one you want. He has the inside track to Kirksey's job in 2020. Mack Wilson is just a multi purpose backup plan. 

Edited by MAC_32
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Db: 

Let someone else be the first to Abram. Despite the dredge in front of him at LB Guenther's usage of safeties caps his upside. 

Use him as a trigger to consider Savage or Blair. 

Most leagues cant support developmental db's, but if yours does I'd rather wait and target Edwards, Hooker, and Redwine than pick up Thornhill, Rapp, or Adderley. They may start year one, but none of them will play anywhere near the box. Edwards, Hooker, and Redwine are behind box safeties that may be elsewhere/benched in 2020.

Edited by MAC_32
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DL:

I dont agree with Bramel about how early to target Oliver and Q. The former should be the first one, but he isn't Aaron Donald. If you dont like any of the top 10 receivers or 4 tight ends for any reason then by all means slide them behind Oliver. That's it though. If you weren't already high on them. Q? He may not be a DT. That needs factored into his draft day price. He has very little value as an end.

I'd rather target Tillery or Wilkins (but not Lawrence) later. Simmons too, but he's more league specific. Deep IR/taxi, high number of keepers, and of course DT required. 

At end? Ferrell has to be first behind Bosa because he is the only one that will certainly be listed as an end. I'd rank him as the 4th idp, but wouldnt consider him until at least some time in the third in most formats. I think Bosa can be justified in the first, but I'd rather play chicken and wait til the early second. 

Among the rest, I think Allen has the best chance to get classed as an end. He's also the next best available. I'm comfortable picking him anytime after Ferrell falls off the board. 

I dont like the chances of Burns, Sweat, or Allen getting classed as an end. After the first two are picked I'll take Collier instead. Then wait and see if impatient owners drop the rookie olb's in-season. Gary may get end classification, but I'm not interested. It'd be in a 3-4, he may or may not be injured, and if effort/passion for the game really isn't an issue I'll be the last one to believe it. 

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Brian Burns is same story as Allen - listed at LB in MFL but almost certainly a DE - listed as such on Roto depth chart and player page.

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On 4/26/2019 at 10:53 AM, Flying Elvis said:


Devin White LB TB - Another obvious pick that will be the first LB off the board. Stud IDP for years. Gut punch for those of us hoping for a cheap steal when adding Deone Bucannon.
 

So, um, yeah... why didn't any of you remind me that TB was going 3-4? Buc still has value! Only took me 2 weeks to realize I'm an idiot... almost dropped him in one league earlier today. Yikes... :D

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On 5/8/2019 at 3:25 PM, Hankmoody said:

Brian Burns is same story as Allen - listed at LB in MFL but almost certainly a DE - listed as such on Roto depth chart and player page.

Buyer beware... there was some talk of transitioning to a 3-4 for CAR. No idea how realistic it is, what kind of time frame, or how quickly Rivera's seat gets hot, but Burns has some OLB risk.

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Just drafted S Marquise Blair in Seattle in R5 of my rookie dynasty draft. He's playing SS with chatter of Seahawks camp indicating he's expected to start. McDougal will slide over to FS and Tedric to bench. They invested a R2 pick and plays like a big hitter. 

Feel like so much talk about the D line situation has overshadowed the other opportunities in the draft like this. 

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19 hours ago, Flying Elvis said:

So, um, yeah... why didn't any of you remind me that TB was going 3-4? Buc still has value! Only took me 2 weeks to realize I'm an idiot... almost dropped him in one league earlier today. Yikes... :D

David is still in TBB isn't he? I figured it was going to be David and White inside. 

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Ok I have a bunch of draft data now so I can share some more things:

1.  LB's stink in this draft.  All over the place, and a massive drop off after top 2.  In a couple drafts there were none drafted until round 4 - that's pick 49 in the 16 man draft.  Okere seems to be first but Quincy Williams is flying up fast with the Telvin news.  I was already very interested in him based on the draft capital JAX invested.  Pratt is atop this tier too but I know nothing about him.  For my money I'm waiting until the 6th-8th rounds and taking the guys that remain- Dru Tranquil, Vosean Joseph, Camerson Smith, Mack Wilson, Te'Von Coney, Ryan Connelly.  If they aren't there they aren't there but I'm not spending mid picks on fliers like them.  Ben Banogu from IND is listed at LB but he projects out to DE and Roto has him there too - steal alert.

2.  DB's are boring.  Again, late fliers only for me.  I got Blair in the 8th somehow, but otherwise I'm ignoring them.  No intriguing guys like Killebrew or Tartt from past drafts.

3.  There are a lot of DE options.  LJ Collier is getting largely ignored, and a bunch of them are still listed at LB by MFL.  I mentioned Banogu above and a bunch in previous posts.  I don't mind 3-4 DE or strong-side types later depending on league scoring, and quite a few are clocking in as values - Rashan Gary, Anthony Nelson, Zach Allen, and Austin Bryant have chances to rack up quite a few tackles and maybe 1/2 a dozen sacks - solid DL2 numbers. 

My leagues do FAAB.  I have a strong history of selling my mid picks for cash and then just filling in pieces from waivers.  This year's draft is ripe for that.  I can sell a 4th rounder for $5 and get a guy on waivers for $1 that I was probably considering in the 4th or 5th round.  And if I don't, that's fine, because my roster and taxi generally don't have room for those types of fliers anyway.  Worst case I jump back in in the 7th when picks are going for a buck or two.  Waivers don't run for a couple of weeks but so far I have seen

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58 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Ok I have a bunch of draft data now so I can share some more things:

1.  LB's stink in this draft.  All over the place, and a massive drop off after top 2.  In a couple drafts there were none drafted until round 4 - that's pick 49 in the 16 man draft.  Okere seems to be first but Quincy Williams is flying up fast with the Telvin news.  I was already very interested in him based on the draft capital JAX invested.  Pratt is atop this tier too but I know nothing about him.  For my money I'm waiting until the 6th-8th rounds and taking the guys that remain- Dru Tranquil, Vosean Joseph, Camerson Smith, Mack Wilson, Te'Von Coney, Ryan Connelly.  If they aren't there they aren't there but I'm not spending mid picks on fliers like them.  Ben Banogu from IND is listed at LB but he projects out to DE and Roto has him there too - steal alert.

2.  DB's are boring.  Again, late fliers only for me.  I got Blair in the 8th somehow, but otherwise I'm ignoring them.  No intriguing guys like Killebrew or Tartt from past drafts.

3.  There are a lot of DE options.  LJ Collier is getting largely ignored, and a bunch of them are still listed at LB by MFL.  I mentioned Banogu above and a bunch in previous posts.  I don't mind 3-4 DE or strong-side types later depending on league scoring, and quite a few are clocking in as values - Rashan Gary, Anthony Nelson, Zach Allen, and Austin Bryant have chances to rack up quite a few tackles and maybe 1/2 a dozen sacks - solid DL2 numbers. 

My leagues do FAAB.  I have a strong history of selling my mid picks for cash and then just filling in pieces from waivers.  This year's draft is ripe for that.  I can sell a 4th rounder for $5 and get a guy on waivers for $1 that I was probably considering in the 4th or 5th round.  And if I don't, that's fine, because my roster and taxi generally don't have room for those types of fliers anyway.  Worst case I jump back in in the 7th when picks are going for a buck or two.  Waivers don't run for a couple of weeks but so far I have seen

I've seen multiple places that Banogu could be at Sam, and Indy does have a void there.  Buyer beware for tackle heavy leagues. 

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Not sweating that.  He's not the physique of a SAM, he's long lanky and quick twitchy.  They have returning guys plus they drafted two other true LB besides Banogu, and Roto has Banogu listed at DE already.  At his prices there's really no need to proceed with caution, he's an easy cut as a 5th rounder.

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On 5/10/2019 at 11:42 PM, Flying Elvis said:

So, um, yeah... why didn't any of you remind me that TB was going 3-4? Buc still has value! Only took me 2 weeks to realize I'm an idiot... almost dropped him in one league earlier today. Yikes... :D

REALLY?

The question is how much/what percent base they will play because it doesn't fit their personnel, Gerald McCoy and his salary is a goner, JPP/Carl Nassib don't fit a 3-4, Devin White's upside diminished.  

I admit complete ignorance on this so is this true and if so what prompted the move and how are they justifying the switch?  

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Seems idiotic to me, as well. They hired Bowles and are switching. There have been reports that it will be "variable" and/or "versatile" but all seem to agree it will be a base 3-4. All designations will be headaches.... and likely poor fits given the personnel. Not sure how the designations will shake out so Buccs IDP owners beware.

ESPN article from March. Buccs own website from March. Talk started as soon as Bowles was hired in February-ish? 

 

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On 5/10/2019 at 11:42 PM, Flying Elvis said:

So, um, yeah... why didn't any of you remind me that TB was going 3-4? Buc still has value! Only took me 2 weeks to realize I'm an idiot... almost dropped him in one league earlier today. Yikes... :D

I did!

19 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

REALLY?

The question is how much/what percent base they will play because it doesn't fit their personnel, Gerald McCoy and his salary is a goner, JPP/Carl Nassib don't fit a 3-4, Devin White's upside diminished.  

I admit complete ignorance on this so is this true and if so what prompted the move and how are they justifying the switch?  

Yes really ;)

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/753987-all-32-defensive-schemes-and-key-players-within-them/

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The following player position changes will be made on Wednesday, May 15th, to bring our player database up-to-date with the FantasySharks.com depth charts:

CAR: Brian Burns from LB to DE

IND: Justin Houston from LB to DE

IND: Ben Banogu from LB to DE

JAX: Josh Allen from LB to DE

NE : Chase Winovich from LB to DE

Only surprise is Winovich, but it's kinda irrelevant to me.  I like the guy ok but NEP rarely stack up the stats.

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3 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

 Bowles is a genius IMHO.  He is not going to waste Devin White so don't drop him.  He's got legit value, I believe in Bowles.  He concocted an incredible defense in Arizona because he DID NOT have linebackers like Devin White and used big safeties but now he's got a stud LB and I think he will use him a ton.  I don't see him coming off the field with his coverage abilities.  

In his first practice with veterans, Devin White picked off Jameis Winston. That's his third pick since he's been in Tampa

Quote

In his first practice with veterans, Devin White picked off Jameis Winston. That's his third pick since he's been in Tampa. I was really impressed with the way he led the huddle. "Devin's not shy. That's what we like about him," Bruce Arians said. "He jumped out, [learned] the defense quickly for today's installation and wasn't bashful about calling the defense and getting everybody lined up."

Don't let the base fool you into thinking Devin White won't be the cornerstone or that his role will be diminished.  He's taking over as the leader, he's not coming off the field and Bowles isn't going to swap him out with a safety anytime soon.  

Bruce Arians: Devin White is everything we want as a person and player

I prefer White over Bush because the stat crew in Pittsburgh is historically stingy giving tackles, especially assists.  I totally forgot Todd Bowles got the DC gig and I have even greater confidence in Devin White now that he's got Bowles in his corner.

Devin White is a solid BUY IMHO. 

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2 minutes ago, Flying Elvis said:

Ahh... I see what happened now. @Bracie Smathers - my post was saying I almost dropped Deone Bucanon (aka "Buc" in my post). Nobody is worried about Bush's production. 

OK, I am not worried about Bush's production but the stat crew in Pittsburgh is stingy dishing out assists. 

I think Bush as the allegorical carpet to tie the defensive room together and that could mean the defense gets off the field sooner, i.e., less opportunities but White will be on the field a lot with Jameis on offense and if the defense is in transition. 

Bush could/should make the most NFL impact but I think White will get more iDP points.

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FWIW, I've scrubbed my rosters clean of Deone Bucannon and have no second thoughts about it. 

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Where do you start targeting these rookie IDPs?  I'm in a 10 team league where decent enough IDPs can often be found on the waivers - would spending a second on White or Bush or Bosa be too early?  I have the 11, and then the 14....and then the 21.  The 11 seems early for any defender, but maybe I can get the first one off the board at 14...and maybe one of those 3 slides to 21?

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If the leagues isn't deep and you can generally get value on the wire, I'd pass on the top guys unless you really need an LB. S, DE, and DT can be drafted very late this year (Allen 3.08 Ferrell 3.12 Burns 4.02 Collier still on the board) and only Abram & Thornhill drafted at S with 5.01 currently on the clock in a 12 team league with deep benches @56 per team. If you can't get "decent enough" offensive pieces on the waivers, that's where you should spend your early draft picks.

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38 minutes ago, matttyl said:

Where do you start targeting these rookie IDPs?  I'm in a 10 team league where decent enough IDPs can often be found on the waivers - would spending a second on White or Bush or Bosa be too early?  I have the 11, and then the 14....and then the 21.  The 11 seems early for any defender, but maybe I can get the first one off the board at 14...and maybe one of those 3 slides to 21?

Very league dependent, especially with how many you start.  My leagues all start at least 8 IDP and up to 11, so getting difference makers matters and depth is much harder to find.  Mine are all very tackle-heavy.

Bush/White - most years, stud LB start going at 10.  This year they are going much earlier.  I had 1.05 in one league I would have taken White before I traded out (and he was promptly taken by the guy I traded it to), took him 1.08 in another, and he went 1.05 and 1.07 in others.  Bush was 1.01, 1.02, (both terrible owners), 1.09, and 1.09 - 5-9 is about right.  This draft is weird, there aren't any real tier 2 LB's - it goes straight to T4 for me.  Usually you get guys like Leonard, Warner, Evans propping this tier up.  I don't like the value in 2019 at all and haven't drafted a single one before 71 since White.  I like guys like Vosean Joseph and Dru Tranquil as fliers way more than I like where Okereke and Pratt are being reached for.

Bosa - going 12-15 everywhere.  Elite potential, so I get it, but a tad rich for my blood.  I would have taken him 1.15 in one league with dynamic scoring.  That's where guys like he, Garrett, and Bosa1 go though.  The other DE's start in the 20's and I have zero interest there either.  DE isn't terribly hard to fill on the wire and in our scoring there's a big tier of about 40 guys within 2 PPG range.  If our scoring were more dynamic I'd be ok with Ferrell and Allen there, but as in I like collecting up the Banoku/Burns shots much later (helped by their initial LB listing on MFL).

No DB worth talking about - I love Abraham and his potential but he carries a 2nd round price tag and that's crazy given how easy it is to fill with vets on waivers for min bid.

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1 hour ago, matttyl said:

Where do you start targeting these rookie IDPs?  I'm in a 10 team league where decent enough IDPs can often be found on the waivers - would spending a second on White or Bush or Bosa be too early?  I have the 11, and then the 14....and then the 21.  The 11 seems early for any defender, but maybe I can get the first one off the board at 14...and maybe one of those 3 slides to 21?

As Hankmoody mentioned there is no way to know because it is very league specific.  Some leagues the IDP's are an afterthought because they have very little impact to your wins or losses.  In those cases I wouldn't worry about spending high draft capital on them.  In other leagues were you can build a team by the IDP then you may want go towards the end of the first round. 

 

A good place to start is to review past drafts for this league and see where the top IDP options started coming off the board.  This will help you figure out what your league mates like to do as well. 

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3 hours ago, matttyl said:

Where do you start targeting these rookie IDPs?  I'm in a 10 team league where decent enough IDPs can often be found on the waivers - would spending a second on White or Bush or Bosa be too early?  I have the 11, and then the 14....and then the 21.  The 11 seems early for any defender, but maybe I can get the first one off the board at 14...and maybe one of those 3 slides to 21?

Tl;dr - the others provided the detail, but really it just comes down to your specific leeg's replacement value. 

I have my own non-quantitative method to identifying replacement value and other related subjects, so saying anything further will probably only leave you asking more questions you probably don't need answers to.  But, if you want the answer to those questions I think you have to determine replacement value at each position.  Otherwise you will unintentionally not get good advice.  

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5 hours ago, matttyl said:

Where do you start targeting these rookie IDPs?  I'm in a 10 team league where decent enough IDPs can often be found on the waivers - would spending a second on White or Bush or Bosa be too early?  I have the 11, and then the 14....and then the 21.  The 11 seems early for any defender, but maybe I can get the first one off the board at 14...and maybe one of those 3 slides to 21?

One way you can quantify this is by a VBD analysis of the positional values in your league.

You take the worst starter of a position as the baseline. For example, in one of my league, 52 WRs are started every week. The 52nd WR, the "worst starting WR", had 141 points, while the 4th best WR had 334 points (I start at the 4th player and do blocks of 4 so that some unusual results of one player don't impact the math too much). So the top WR has an added value of 334-141 = 193.  The 20th best WR for example had 217 points, which is an added value of 217-141 = 76

You can do that with the IDP positions too. In this particular league, we start a total of 48 LB every week, the 48th LB at season end had 139 points, while the 4th best LB had 225. Thats an added value of 225-139= 86.

The DE position had a similar value, while the CB, DT had very low values (40), and S somewhere in between. (60).

Now you just have to interprate the math. As long as you draft rookie WRs that have a good shot a finishing above the top 20 WRs, drafting them was a way better choice than taking a very elite DE or LB. In this league IDP scoring is quite high so, the added value of a top 20 LB is at the same level as a top 32 WR, which is why I drafted White at the end of the first round. In leagues with way lower IDP scoring, that would have been a mistake because LBs may be easier to replace, and the added value very low.

Of course the choice of the baseline itself can be important too. In this example, I took the worst starter, but you could also take the worst rostered player, which is interesting too, as it would give you the added value over waiver wire replacement of a position (spoiler alert: LBs tend to fall in value with that baseline, while pass rushers are gaining. They are just harder to replace on the waivers).

Here is an example for one league:

https://i.imgur.com/UM5pgai.png

 

Edited by tonato

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I'm considering taking Brian Burns in a rookie draft where I need DL help immensely.  How probable is the Panthers' switch to the 3-4?  I am reading that Burns' selection signifies the move, but no word on this since late April and Burns was switched from LB to DE.  

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21 hours ago, nirad3 said:

I'm considering taking Brian Burns in a rookie draft where I need DL help immensely.  How probable is the Panthers' switch to the 3-4?  I am reading that Burns' selection signifies the move, but no word on this since late April and Burns was switched from LB to DE.  

Well, my take on what they've said is that they (along with the rest of the league) want to be "variable" sometimes 4-3, sometimes 3-4 depending on situation.  Burns is perfect for this as he can succeed in both.  

 

That doesn't clarify how he will be classified, which will depend on where he is listed on Carolina official chart, what the coaches say about 4-3 vs 3-4.  My opinion is that he will be a DE, but there is a chance he gets classified as a LB down the road.  He's also not great run defender yet, so he may even be more situational in the beginning.

 

Allen, is good at both, and to me, he seems more like a victim of personal than scheme- Campbell and Ngakoue should be starting at DE in their 4-3.  Allen also needs to be on the field.  He's best as a DE, but who is he bumping from the lineup- Ngakoue was one of the top players in pressures last year (and therefore one of my favorite buy low targets), but didn't get sacks.  

 

Will Allen "start" at OLB, because he is good enough in pass coverage to get away with that, will they move Campbell inside to DT (if that happens imagine Campbell's value changing depending on leagues scoring/starting players) so that Allen can line up at DE?  I guess he could not officially be a starter, but come in on passing downs, but a a player of his ability needs to be on the field full time, so I think that is unlikely.  The reason they haven't resigned Ngakoue is that they likely aren't going to pay him after this year (or Campbell retires, phases out) and Allen is a starting DE next year.

 

Anyway, too much uncertainty in my mind- I suspect he stays as a DE, but there is a decent chance that he gets switched back too...draft with caution.

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In today's FBG email:

Quote

 

Source: The Associated Press - Mark Long

Jacksonville Jaguars LB Joshua Allen was drafted to play at defensive end, according to defensive coordinator Todd Wash.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Allen is a prototypical EDGE player who can get around would-be blockers with bend and burst. He's going to be tasked with getting after the quarterback early and often. Allen does have athleticism to be used in coverage but that's not what he does best.

 

 

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On 4/26/2019 at 10:53 AM, Flying Elvis said:

Darnell Savage Jr. S GB - There's a lot to like, especially when @Joe 8ryant calls him "a Bob Sanders-esque safety" in today's email. If you were somehow holding out hope that Josh Jones was going to be a stud, the addition of Savage via draft and Amos via FA should make it clear Jones is not happening. 

Ryan Wood‏Verified account @ByRyanWood

#Packers WR Davante Adams had big praise for first-round rookie safety Darnell Savage Jr.: "He’s going to be that guy – I can tell. We definitely got a steal. I know we got him early, but I still think that he could have gone even earlier just based on what he’s doing out there."

1:53 PM - 12 Jun 2019

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On 5/15/2019 at 10:34 AM, Hankmoody said:

The following player position changes will be made on Wednesday, May 15th, to bring our player database up-to-date with the FantasySharks.com depth charts:

CAR: Brian Burns from LB to DE

IND: Justin Houston from LB to DE

IND: Ben Banogu from LB to DE

JAX: Josh Allen from LB to DE

NE : Chase Winovich from LB to DE

Only surprise is Winovich, but it's kinda irrelevant to me.  I like the guy ok but NEP rarely stack up the stats.

How long do you expect that to last?  I mean he's the Colts strong side LB right now, correct?  I did "draft" him with a mid 4th round pick just on the hopes that he keeps this designation.

Drafted Devin White at #21 (D Bush went #22).  I hope I got the right one.....

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2 hours ago, matttyl said:

How long do you expect that to last?  I mean he's the Colts strong side LB right now, correct?  I did "draft" him with a mid 4th round pick just on the hopes that he keeps this designation.

Who’s saying he’s the SLB?  Even their website says DE and that’s after he was traded after being an OLB

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