This time it’s more supposed to happen.
Isnt this supposed to happen every election?
i agree. Bernie, Joe, Warren, and Bootyjudge seem like they're in it for the long haul.Feeling more confident about this prediction with every passing day. Right now I have a hard time seeing any of the candidates getting 50% of the delegates.
And now Bloomberg is blasting tons of ads in the Super Tuesday states.i agree. Bernie, Joe, Warren, and Bootyjudge seem like they're in it for the long haul.
I agree too. If Bernie has a significant lead but less than 50% it's not going to end well for the Dems if they go with someone else.Feeling more confident about this prediction with every passing day. Right now I have a hard time seeing any of the candidates getting 50% of the delegates.
I would like to see your math on this one.It’s actually much more likely that by Super Tuesday or even before that, Joe Biden will be the clear nominee and the race will be effectively over.
I didn’t say mathematically; I said effectively.I would like to see your math on this one.
If he wins those states it will be with a plurality of like 25% of the vote. Even in South Carolina he’s getting like 35% of the vote. That’s not going to make anybody drop out.I didn’t say mathematically; I said effectively.
Biden’s one of the front runners in both Iowa and New Hampshire, though winning both would be an upset. But if he did win one or both and South Carolina, I think the race will be considered over and this is much more likely than a contested convention.
Candidates don't drop out because of the delegates other candidates receive, but due to whether or not their funding dries up. It used to amaze me how many candidates were gone after the "first in the nation" contests and just how quickly everyone jumps on the front runner(s) bandwagon. Maybe the big prizes in California and Texas makes this time different for an extra week, but I can also see those big prizes putting a fork into the race even sooner than normal.If he wins those states it will be with a plurality of like 25% of the vote. Even in South Carolina he’s getting like 35% of the vote. That’s not going to make anybody drop out.
Michael Bloomberg's funding will never dry up. Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg and Biden all reported big fundraising numbers last quarter, and all are closely bunched up in the early state polls. It's difficult for me to imagine any of them dropping out until it is very obvious that somebody else is going to win a majority of pledged delegates. And I think it will be months before there's going to be a candidate that will obviously get over 50%, if that ever happens.Candidates don't drop out because of the delegates other candidates receive, but due to whether or not their funding dries up. It used to amaze me how many candidates were gone after the "first in the nation" contests and just how quickly everyone jumps on the front runner(s) bandwagon. Maybe the big prizes in California and Texas makes this time different for an extra week, but I can also see those big prizes putting a fork into the race even sooner than normal.
Quoted from another thread.The 538 model gives about a 15% chance of a contested convention.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-what-are-the-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/
Nate Silver thinks the model is underestimating the chance a bit.
https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1220390108983123968
Based on last night’s results I don’t see any of the major candidates dropping out any time soon. On Super Tuesday there will be something like 5 candidates dividing up the delegates.I'll go with fatguyinalittlecoat's reasoning on this and say it seems like it's got a legitimate chance of happening.
I'd have to look into the delegate picture and Super Tuesday more. These races are really unpredictable. Somebody could seize momentum and just truck the field. California, Texas, Virginia, etc. Lot to digest. I'm not really a horse race guy; it just seems that if there's any year, this might be the one. Lots of funding, as you mentioned, being doled out in order to defeat Trump without a frontrunner to funnel money to yet.Based on last night’s results I don’t see any of the major candidates dropping out any time soon. On Super Tuesday there will be something like 5 candidates dividing up the delegates.
There isn’t much of an opportunity for this to happen. It’s NH, NV, SC, then Super Tuesday (where about 1/3 of all delegates will be up for grabs).I'd have to look into the delegate picture and Super Tuesday more. These races are really unpredictable. Somebody could seize momentum and just truck the field. California, Texas, Virginia, etc. Lot to digest. I'm not really a horse race guy; it just seems that if there's any year, this might be the one. Lots of funding, as you mentioned, being doled out in order to defeat Trump without a frontrunner to funnel money to yet.
538 model now gives a 23% chance of no candidate getting a majority of delegates: Model538 just launched a new feature to try to predict the outcome of the Democratic primary
Right now it gives a 13% chance to "nobody will get a majority of the delegates." I think that seriously underestimates the real number, but even if it doesn't, 13% still seems significant. Biden and Sanders are the only candidates right now that have a better than 13% chance of winning the nomination outright by winning a majority of the delegates.
This prediction held up well.It’s actually much more likely that by Super Tuesday or even before that, Joe Biden will be the clear nominee and the race will be effectively over.
Hey man it was likely on January 6th. It’s just not likely anymore.This prediction held up well.
Tim and I almost never agree on this stuff but I know he's put a lot of thought into his positions and he's willing to stick his neck out there and take crap when he's wrong... I respect thatI feel like you could open any thread in the PSF at random, post "Boy, tim sure got this one wrong didn't he?" and it would work perfectly.
I know -- I'm just giving him a hard time.Tim and I almost never agree on this stuff but I know he's put a lot of thought into his positions and he's willing to stick his neck out there and take crap when he's wrong... I respect that
I'd feel better about a contested convention if that showed 3 candidates tied for first instead of one clear leader.538 model now has a tie for first between Sanders and No One.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/
I believe Buttigieg, at a brokered convention, could ask his delegates to vote for Klobuchar, but I don't know how likely they are to oblige. I really don't know how a contested convention would work. It seems worth looking into.Assuming nobody single handedly gets 51% of the delegates, can two candidates combine their delegates and work together? Say, Pete and Amy make a deal to run together and combine theirs?
Didn’t an episode of Veep deal with this?I believe Buttigieg, at a brokered convention, could ask his delegates to vote for Klobuchar, but I don't know how likely they are to oblige. I really don't know how a contested convention would work. It seems worth looking into.
West Wing definitely did.Sweet J said:Didn’t an episode of Veep deal with this?Maurile Tremblay said:I believe Buttigieg, at a brokered convention, could ask his delegates to vote for Klobuchar, but I don't know how likely they are to oblige. I really don't know how a contested convention would work. It seems worth looking into.
Man would I love a Matt Santos right about nowWest Wing definitely did.
His healthcare plan was basically Buttigieg’s Medicare for all who want it.Man would I love a Matt Santos right about now
We could certainly used a president focused on climate change...cap'n grunge said:Enter All Gore. Time to give him his 2000 due.
Plus he'd be good on combating cyber threats because he invented the innernets.We could certainly used a president focused on climate change...
I believe that's exactly what would happen. The moderates would horse trade to a majority. If they stay in the race Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar should have 50%÷ combined. IMO Sanders will need to get there on his own to be the nominee.Maurile Tremblay said:I believe Buttigieg, at a brokered convention, could ask his delegates to vote for Klobuchar, but I don't know how likely they are to oblige. I really don't know how a contested convention would work. It seems worth looking into.
You are correct, and the scenario you describe seems very likely to me. Tom Perez should be spending every waking hour trying to figure out how to emerge from the convention without tearing the party apart.Am I correct in the below:
DNC re-wrote the rules this cycle to eliminate Super Delegates, but only from the First ballot. If there is not a clear cut winner (contested convention), the pledged delegates become un-pledged and Super Delegates are then introduced. If that happens, I can't see a Bernie Nomination. Almost certainly the Super Delegates would swing it to one of the establishment-approved candidate- Pete or Klobuchar. Or maybe even Bloomberg
For unity's sake, the nominees themselves would be able to solve this, and pretty simply: when all the delegates have been handed out after the final primary, second place and below should endorse the delegate leader going into the convention.You are correct, and the scenario you describe seems very likely to me. Tom Perez should be spending every waking hour trying to figure out how to emerge from the convention without tearing the party apart.