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Hot Sauce Guy

Evaluating IDP Matchups - philosophy

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Just thinking about this today....what makes a good matchup for IDP?

Seems like a lot of analysts miss on weekly projections/recommendations. 

It strikes me that IDP matchups may be counterintuitive. 

Often we get stuck thinking about a defensive player going up against a bad offense and/or a bad OL. LB/DL primarily.

Or defensive backs playing against a crappy QB.

And while there’s certainly a possibility of that working out, it seems like it’s a better bet to start defensive players against good teams/good offenses. 

How many times have you seen what you thought would be a jackpot matchup turn out to be a dud for your player because TOP heavily favored your IDP dude’s team? 

It’s hard to make tackles, or get sacks or Ints when you’re sitting on the sidelines watching your own team grind out the clock. 

And 3-and-outs mean your guys get 3 plays to make something happen? That’s not conducive to high tackle totals.

I’m going the opposite. Gimme matchups against great offenses - ones that can sustain drives. Gimme Zeke running 8x on a drive so my player can make 8 tackles. 

Not saying I’m the first to think of this - maybe others have said similar.  but most of what I read says the exact opposite & it just doesn’t make sense to me. It’s a simplistic approach to FF to say “opponent has a bad offense, IDP’s will feast” - because it’s more like famine for your players when they’re not on the field. 

Am I out in left field here? Would you rather have a LB facing the Rams or the Dolphins? 

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I have always IDP’d with the idea, I would rather have my players going against a high powered offense then a crappy one. Especially if the player is not a beast - basically any none stud LB. I will say an exception to that rule for me, is a stud DE, then I am less concerned unless it’s a team that just refuses to pass, which is rare these days. 

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I always prefer IDPs playing good-to-great offenses, and in matchups that will likely be fairly even games so both teams need to play out a full 4 quarters. A solid game with lots of offensive snaps means IDPs on both teams get plenty of opportunity. 

I also like IDPs on teams with a terrible offense, though. If their O goes 3 and out a lot the IDPs will get plenty of opportunity to wrack up points. However, this only extends to DL, ILB, and a true SS. CB, FS, and OLB are unlikely to get volume opportunity when the opposing O is running out the clock with rushing plays by the 2nd Q. 

Only true studs get in my lineup if they are facing a truly bad offense. Then again, that was the reason Jamie Collins was on my bench last week vs. MIA. :(

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I'd love to see some numbers crunched for LBs and safeties. I'd rather start a second LB (he who comes off the field in dime) against a run-heavy team. Run-heavy vs. fast-paced is a wash for play-callers. And I do contemplate which team will win when determining "run-heavy." I guess I'd avoid starting my LB against a dink-and-dunk passing offense that plays slow. No idea if that's supportable by data tho. Yeah, i agree that playing an LB against a really bad team is a bad idea. Likely pass heavy with too few snaps.

I'd really like to see some study about why some free safeties are compiling big tackle numbers. I think high snap numbers and poor LB play explain some of it. What about poor CB play?  How has Tracy Walker done it two weeks in a row? Week 1 can be explained away by total snap count, ok, but Week 2?

I did notice that, for the 2017 colts, there were Morrison games and Farley games. Morrison would eat when Indy was blown out, Farley otherwise. (Antonio Morrison was #2 LB next to John Bostic. Matthias Farley - strong safety playing a lot in the box after a Clayton Geathers injury.) Been processing those findings ever since.

Now that I think about it, this explains why I'm rolling with Sam Eguavoen, Ryan Connelly, and Preston Brown in a league where I'm going "0 LB." Not full time but busy against 4-minute offense.

Edited by tripp
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For corners, I look for a guy who's not an all-pro matched up with a Target hog but will gamble on a guy facing a turnover-prone QB like Fitzpatrick

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One more theory: how about a safety facing an elite tight end? Look at numbers for Eric Berry and Devin McCourty in the 2017 season opener - KC vs. NE (Gronk, kelce). Always wondered if that could apply more broadly.

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17 hours ago, tripp said:

One more theory: how about a safety facing an elite tight end? Look at numbers for Eric Berry and Devin McCourty in the 2017 season opener - KC vs. NE (Gronk, kelce). Always wondered if that could apply more broadly.

Same goes for Neal last week against Ertz

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