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Election Day 2019 (1 Viewer)

ren hoek said:
Kentucky Senate President Robert Stiversthrew another wrench into the state's razor-thin gubernatorial outcome late Tuesday night, saying that the legislature could decide the race.

Stivers' comments came shortly after Gov. Matt Bevin refused to concede to Attorney General Andy Beshear, who led by roughly 5,100 votes when all the precincts were counted.

“There’s less than one-half of 1%, as I understand, separating the governor and the attorney general,” Stivers said. “We will follow the letter of the law and what various processes determine.”    

Stivers, R-Manchester, said based on his staff’s research, the decision could come before the Republican-controlled state legislature. 

Under state law, Bevin has 30 days to formally contest the outcome once it is certified by the State Board of Elections. Candidates typically ask for a re-canvass of voting machines and a recount first.

The last contested governor's race was the 1899 election of Democrat William Goebel.

Stivers said he thought Bevin’s speech declining to concede to Beshear was “appropriate.” He said believes most of the votes that went to Libertarian John Hicks, who received about 2% of the total vote, would have gone to Bevin and made him the clear winner.

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/06/beshear-vs-bevin-legislature-could-decide-race-senate-president-says/4174103002/

This was the same argument used against Green Party voters in 16, and Nader voters in 2000.  Every time a bad candidate loses by a small margin, they blame 3rd party/independents for not going along with the two party system.  
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Would love to see him back this up with any facts.  If the GOP steals this election with funny games... man I don't know what will happen.  People voted for who they wanted to win.  You don't list a second place vote. 

 
timschochet said:
Agreed. The Bevin loss is of some immediate importance because apparently Bevin tried to hug Trump and talk about impeachment as much as possible and it didn’t work. 

But Virginia is far more problematic for Republicans long term IMO because of the loss of suburbia. When the GOP voters chose Trump in 2016 they made the deliberate decision to reject the findings of the “autopsy” of 2012, which warned that in order to be competitive in the future they would have to move away from nativism and anti-immigration rhetoric among other things. Instead they doubled down on it and now the autopsy is coming true. They cannot remain sustainable as a national party if they lose the suburbs, full stop. 
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I read that the four closest Senate races all went to Republicans so this election was a whisker away from ending up 25-15 instead of 21-19. Changing demographics will make it impossible for reactionary Trumpish Republicans from winning this state again in the near future.

North Carolina, you're next.

 
Bonzai said:
Hicks (libertarian candidate) got 28,426 votes.  Bevin lost by 5,000.

They're openly reveling in the fact that their candidate took votes away from Bevin.  I've never seen anything like this before:

"In an ideal world, we elect Libertarian candidates and advance liberty. Failing that, we push mainstream candidates toward liberty to advance the cause.

But if we can't do those things, we are happy to split the vote in a way that causes delicious tears. Tonight there are plenty of delicious tears from Bevin supporters."
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I read that most interesting statement on twitter earlier this morning. My first thought was, was Bevin not crazy enough for the Libertarians? And my second thought, based on a nugget buried in that statement was, do Libertarians in general support ranked choice voting? I had no idea, if true.

BTW, one other decision of note happened at the polls yesterday. New York City voters approved ranked choice voting by a 45-point(!) margin, making the city the largest jurisdiction in the country to implement it. How long before it goes statewide? Voters love it everywhere. Republican politicians hate it. Dems aren't crazy about it.

 
I'd be shocked if Mitch lost.  The big deal, even with a win, is that he might actually have to campaign and spend some money.  Not sure what his war chest is like.  RNC & big donor PACs might have to pony up.  

 
beef said:
I'd be shocked if Mitch lost.  The big deal, even with a win, is that he might actually have to campaign and spend some money.  Not sure what his war chest is like.  RNC & big donor PACs might have to pony up.  
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I don’t even think he has to do that. 

Trump will be on the ballot. He won Kentucky by 30. He’ll win again, not by 30 but he’ll win. McConnell will get the down ballot benefit. That’s enough. If it were an offyear then sure he might be in trouble. But it isn’t. 

 
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beef said:
I'd be shocked if Mitch lost.  The big deal, even with a win, is that he might actually have to campaign and spend some money.  Not sure what his war chest is like.  RNC & big donor PACs might have to pony up.  
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According to the Dallas Morning News

Donald Trump and the political action committees for Mitch McConnell, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Lindsey Graham, John Kasich and John McCain accepted $7.35 million in contributions from a Ukrainian-born oligarch who is the business partner of two of Russian president Vladimir Putin's favorite oligarchs and a Russian government bank.

 
300,000 people in Kentucky can’t vote because of felony convictions, resulting in the highest rate of black disenfranchisement in the country. 1 in 4 black Kentuckians can’t vote. Beshear pledged to use executive order to restore some of those voting rights which would amount to over 100,000 people regaining their right to vote. That is going to affect McConnell’s race for re-election.

 
cosjobs said:
According to the Dallas Morning News

Donald Trump and the political action committees for Mitch McConnell, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Lindsey Graham, John Kasich and John McCain accepted $7.35 million in contributions from a Ukrainian-born oligarch who is the business partner of two of Russian president Vladimir Putin's favorite oligarchs and a Russian government bank.
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I would like to be an oligarch. How much money do you need? 

 
Bevin was a deeply unpopular governor with zero charisma that made the brilliant move to go after teachers’ pensions, then suggested kids might be getting sexually abused and involved with drugs due to the teachers going on strike.

He ran against McConnell in a 2013 senate bid as a ‘tea party’ candidate and lost by 25 points.  Unlike Trump, who has a ~95% approval rating and is overwhelmingly popular with Republicans, Bevin was the most unpopular governor in the country and faced 40% disapproval from within his own party.  Though people would certainly like to believe it, it really wasn’t a referendum on Trump.  

 
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ren hoek said:
Bevin was a deeply unpopular governor with zero charisma that made the brilliant move to go after teachers’ pensions, then suggested kids might be getting sexually abused and involved with drugs due to the teachers going on strike. The guy’s an absolute mongoloid, with the political gamesmanship of a tree. 
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Oh lord.

 
ren hoek said:
Bevin was a deeply unpopular governor with zero charisma that made the brilliant move to go after teachers’ pensions, then suggested kids might be getting sexually abused and involved with drugs due to the teachers going on strike. The guy’s an absolute mongoloid, with the political gamesmanship of a tree. 

He ran against McConnell in a 2013 senate bid as a ‘tea party’ candidate and lost by 25 points.  Unlike Trump, who has a ~95% approval rating and is overwhelmingly popular with Republicans, Bevin was the most unpopular governor in the country and faced 40% disapproval from within his own party.  Though people would certainly like to believe it, it really wasn’t a referendum on Trump.  
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You realize the Mongols are a race/culture, right?

 
Reading a bit more about the Kentucky Gov race. Lots fell into place for this Dem to win. Mitch will win his next election so we can dispel that idea.

 
Gov. Bevin is speaking now live on my local news.

1) He is asking for a "re-canvas" - which is not a recount. Rather it is a "check-up" on the voting system (i.e. voting machine function, etc.) I do not know the specifics yet.

2) Claims that their were "irregularities" - only example he gave was to mention "affidavits" as a concern - more coming he says.

3) Reasons for request:

  • There is a history of vote fraud in KY. 
  • Our Sec State erred by appearing on TV to "call the election" while rolls were still being counted.
  • Notes that her father has legal issues related to KY politics.
  • Machines did not operate at some areas - and he is not sure if ballots were counted there.
  • References NC House District 9 as an example of a "broken process".
  • Wants the people of KY to have absolute confidence that their votes were counted and that the process works.
  • Wants to assure integrity. 
 
Man of Constant Sorrow said:
Gov. Bevin is speaking now live on my local news.

1) He is asking for a "re-canvas" - which is not a recount. Rather it is a "check-up" on the voting system (i.e. voting machine function, etc.) I do not know the specifics yet.

2) Claims that their were "irregularities" - only example he gave was to mention "affidavits" as a concern - more coming he says.

3) Reasons for request:

  • There is a history of vote fraud in KY. 
  • Our Sec State erred by appearing on TV to "call the election" while rolls were still being counted.
  • Notes that her father has legal issues related to KY politics.
  • Machines did not operate at some areas - and he is not sure if ballots were counted there.
  • References NC House District 9 as an example of a "broken process".
  • Wants the people of KY to have absolute confidence that their votes were counted and that the process works.
  • Wants to assure integrity. 
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As a fellow Kentuckian, and also a former poll worker, I’ll add my analysis.

1.Totally acceptable, IMO. That’s just checking the math.

2.We had affidavits and provisional ballots only when somebody insisted they were on the roster for that particular polling place but we couldn’t find them in the book. You call the county clerk, they check the main roster, you let them fill out a sealed ballot and an affidavit, and you moved on. PITA, but not irregular and certainly not 5,000 votes worth. The mostly octogenarians running the polls couldn’t rig that many if you offered them lifetime entries in Publishers Clearinghouse sweepstakes,plus there are no less than two reps of each party present at every polling place at all times to prevent this.

3. A. Would love to see his proof. If there is fraud It was in the hill counties where he won by lopsided margins and would likely decrease his tally.

3b.still counting is irrelevant. Polls were closed.

3c.yes, and I think she is an unqualified legacy who has hopped from office to office because she feels entitled to an elected position, but that not why we here

3d.see 3c. Many many political family trees here, and too much favoritism etc, but this is just more whining

3e. There are multiple machines at each polling place, I think I saw where one precinct in particular extended their hours, and there is a printout on the door of the precut posted with tallies of the votes cast there when polls closed. He knows good and well they were counted.

3f. This is KY not NC.

3g. The other guy got more votes. That’s how the process works. Take your ball and go home Matt.

3h. Lol.nothing says integrity like  throwing excuses at the wall hoping something will stick and accusing everyone else in the govt around you of fraud because you can’t possibly have lost. He only won his first primary by 86 votes. He has already been shown the playbook for how to lose with integrity.

 
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The General said:
Reading a bit more about the Kentucky Gov race. Lots fell into place for this Dem to win. Mitch will win his next election so we can dispel that idea.
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Yeah, telling everyone the only way the (always been free to cross) crumbling I75 bridge between Cindy and KY will be replaced is with tolls added two days before the election was a genius move even if that is truly the only solution. Those votes in Kenton, Campbell and Boone counties could have swung the whole thing.

but, yes, I don’t see Mitch losing unless maybe John Calipari runs against him (not sure if Matt Jones has enough juice).

 
Man of Constant Sorrow said:
Gov. Bevin is speaking now live on my local news.

1) He is asking for a "re-canvas" - which is not a recount. Rather it is a "check-up" on the voting system (i.e. voting machine function, etc.) I do not know the specifics yet.

2) Claims that their were "irregularities" - only example he gave was to mention "affidavits" as a concern - more coming he says.

3) Reasons for request:

  • There is a history of vote fraud in KY. 
  • Our Sec State erred by appearing on TV to "call the election" while rolls were still being counted.
  • Notes that her father has legal issues related to KY politics.
  • Machines did not operate at some areas - and he is not sure if ballots were counted there.
  • References NC House District 9 as an example of a "broken process".
  • Wants the people of KY to have absolute confidence that their votes were counted and that the process works.
  • Wants to assure integrity. 
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I think I’m starting to see why this guy was historically unpopular.

 
ren hoek said:
Bevin was a deeply unpopular governor with zero charisma that made the brilliant move to go after teachers’ pensions, then suggested kids might be getting sexually abused and involved with drugs due to the teachers going on strike.

He ran against McConnell in a 2013 senate bid as a ‘tea party’ candidate and lost by 25 points.  Unlike Trump, who has a ~95% approval rating and is overwhelmingly popular with Republicans, Bevin was the most unpopular governor in the country and faced 40% disapproval from within his own party.  Though people would certainly like to believe it, it really wasn’t a referendum on Trump.  
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Trump no longer has a 95% approval rating among Republicans. 

 
Bad news in PA - suburban slide continues for Republicans

The last time Democrats controlled the government in Delaware County, a suburb of Philadelphia, the U.S. Civil War had just ended.

But on Tuesday, Democrats ended a century and a half of Republican dominance. In two other Philadelphia-area suburbs, they captured Chester County’s board of commissioners for the first time in history and seized control of Bucks County’s board of commissioners for the first time since the 1980s.

The Democratic gains in Pennsylvania, a state crucial to U.S. President Donald Trump’s election in 2016, suggest Republicans have yet to staunch the bleeding in the suburbs, where voters have increasingly revolted against Trump’s heated rhetoric.

The results should “scare” Republicans ahead of the November 2020 election, said Douglas Heye, a strategist who previously worked for the Republican National Committee.

“More and more data suggests we’re seeing a flight away from Republicans in suburban areas,” Heye said.
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Rustoleum said:
As a fellow Kentuckian, and also a former poll worker, I’ll add my analysis.

1.Totally acceptable, IMO. That’s just checking the math.

2.We had affidavits and provisional ballots only when somebody insisted they were on the roster for that particular polling place but we couldn’t find them in the book. You call the county clerk, they check the main roster, you let them fill out a sealed ballot and an affidavit, and you moved on. PITA, but not irregular and certainly not 5,000 votes worth. The mostly octogenarians running the polls couldn’t rig that many if you offered them lifetime entries in Publishers Clearinghouse sweepstakes,plus there are no less than two reps of each party present at every polling place at all times to prevent this.

3. A. Would love to see his proof. If there is fraud It was in the hill counties where he won by lopsided margins and would likely decrease his tally.

3b.still counting is irrelevant. Polls were closed.

3c.yes, and I think she is an unqualified legacy who has hopped from office to office because she feels entitled to an elected position, but that not why we here 

3d.see 3c. Many many political family trees here, and too much favoritism etc, but this is just more whining

3e. There are multiple machines at each polling place, I think I saw where one precinct in particular extended their hours, and there is a printout on the door of the precut posted with tallies of the votes cast there when polls closed. He knows good and well they were counted.

3f. This is KY not NC.

3g. The other guy got more votes. That’s how the process works. Take your ball and go home Matt.

3h. Lol.nothing says integrity like  throwing excuses at the wall hoping something will stick and accusing everyone else in the govt around you of fraud because you can’t possibly have lost. He only won his first primary by 86 votes. He has already been shown the playbook for how to lose with integrity.
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Nice analysis. Thnx. 👍

Also, I need to correct part of my summary of his statement yesterday. I found a copy of it here - 2nd video down.

In regards to this:

Man of Constant Sorrow said:
2) Claims that their were "irregularities" - only example he gave was to mention "affidavits" as a concern - more coming he says.
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It appears that I misunderstood his affidavit remark. Here is what Gov. Bevin actually said:

... we are in the process of getting affidavits and other information that will help us to get a better understanding of what did or did not happen ...
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So, it is not a concern about the affidavits used for voting - rather he is producing them for his challenge. I apologize for my misstatement.

Also, the whole part on the Grimes family (3:06 - 4:39) is even more uncomfortable on the 2nd watch. (Grimes is KY Sec State.)

Finally - irt:

Man of Constant Sorrow said:
1) He is asking for a "re-canvas"
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It is spelled, "recanvass", apparently. Oops. :shrug:

 
👀 🔪 👀 McConnell advisor on @MattBevin: “When you treat people poorly for four years... that comes home to roost. You can't just be a jerk and there not be a consequence... There's nobody who thinks he won the election.”👀👀

 
Bonzai said:
Of course, but this came from the Libertarian Party, not the Democrats. I suppose they’re just trying to find something they can beat their chest about.  I just can’t believe they came out and said something like this.
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I agree this was bad form, and honestly the L Party is a joke, but I only just now got around to reading the rest of their post.  Can't say I blame them for being flippant toward Bevin:

“IN AN IDEAL WORLD, WE ELECT LIBERTARIAN CANDIDATES AND ADVANCE LIBERTY. FAILING THAT, WE PUSH MAINSTREAM CANDIDATES TOWARDS LIBERTY TO ADVANCE THE CAUSE.

BUT IF WE CAN’T DO THOSE THINGS, WE ARE ALWAYS HAPPY TO SPLIT THE VOTE IN A WAY THAT CAUSES DELICIOUS TEARS. TONIGHT THERE ARE PLENTY OF DELICIOUS TEARS FROM BEVIN SUPPORTERS.

HAD MATT BEVIN NOT DITCHED HIS LIBERTY LT GOVERNOR FOR A MITCH MCCONNELL PICKED ANTI LIBERTY, CORRUPT RUNNING MATE WHO HAS TRIED TO ELIMINATE KENTUCKIANS JURY TRIAL RIGHTS, HAD MATT BEVIN NOT PRESIDED OVER A HUGE SALES TAX INCREASE, HAD MATT BEVIN SUPPORTED ANY OF OUR KEY ISSUES ON CRIMINAL JUSTICE REFORM, MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION, EXPANDED GAMING, CUTTING TAXES, OR ACTED WITH THE LEAST BIT OF CIVILITY, WE PROBABLY WOULD NOT HAVE RUN A CANDIDATE. OF COURSE, HE DID THE OPPOSITE. AND HERE WE ARE.

WE SPLIT THE VOTE. AND WE COULD NOT BE MORE THRILLED. IF OUR FRIENDS IN THE MAJOR PARTIES DO NOT WANT THIS TO HAPPEN AGAIN, THEY SHOULD THINK ABOUT PASSING RANKED CHOICE VOTING. AND SUPPORTING OUR ISSUES.

IN THE MEANTIME, THANK YOU TO JOHN HICKS, ANN CORMICAN, KYLE HUGENBERG, JOSH GILPIN AND KYLE SWEENEY FOR RUNNING. YOUR EFFORT WAS APPRECIATED.

FOR THE BEVIN SUPPORTERS, YOUR TEARS ARE DELICIOUS,” THE PARTY POSTED ON FACEBOOK.

 
Dave Wasserman speculated on Twitter this morning that if Virginia Repubs hadn't gerrymandered so aggressively back in 2010 that they would have held on to the state legislature this year. Demographics changed more than they anticipated.

North Carolina, you're next.

 
Wow, this Bevin guy sounds as bad as Scott Walker when it comes to being an election loser poor sport.  

 
Andy Beshear@AndyBeshearKY·9m

It's official - thank you Kentucky. @GovMattBevin and his team have already begun a smooth transition. It's time to get to work!

Obviously Bevin had no friends or support locally or nationally to contest the election.  But credit where its due - it takes a big man to admit he lost the election to someone with more votes.

 
The General said:
@SaintsInDome2006 @Henry Ford

What's up with this Louisiana Gov race (shocked you have a Dem Governor honestly)? Who is expected to win?
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What Henry said. I just voted, it was pretty well attended at my precinct.

- The incumbent governor (D) actually pulled in like 46% IIRC on primary night and we have an open primary, so that typically would presage a win for him but obviously there has been a major push by Trump and the GOP here.

 
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I would add that the challenger is a terrible person and terrible candidate and that Bel Edwards is fairly popular, but enough liberals may stay home simply because of Edwards’ refusal to veto an abortion ban bill. 

 
Man of Constant Sorrow said:
Where are you watching results?

I'm seeing the R slightly ahead, but I am getting no analysis, so I have no clue what they are expecting to come in soon.
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NYT - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/16/us/elections/results-louisiana-governor-general-election.html

Dave Wasserman - good analysis - https://twitter.com/Redistrict

Predictit - https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5267/Which-party-will-win-the-2019-Louisiana-gubernatorial-race - this is real-time market, with most of the money currently on D - but no inside knowledge

 
Dave Wasserman@Redistrict
·
8m
Acaida Parish 100% in. Edwards (D) needed 28.7% per my benchmarks. He got 28.1%. But overall, more overperformance than underperformance for him. 

 
Dave Wasserman@Redistrict

I've yet to see a part of Louisiana where Eddie Rispone (R)'s numbers tonight have really impressed. #LAGOV

 
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