Best place to be leading into the playoffs...is not 1st place!?! (1 Viewer)

This comment applies to leagues where waivers run worst-to first weekly, like mine.

Also for context, in my league (14 teams) 6 make playoffs with the top 2 seeds earning a bye.

Every year, I've always strived to nab the top 2 seeds. This earns you a bye and minimizes the chance of a first round exit -- you at least will place Top 4. Huge advantage, and I want to build a team that moves ahead early and creates separation in terms of record, and then manage my team to stay ahead of the pack leading into the playoffs for those top seeds.

That said, over the last few years, thinking that being in 1st or 2nd may not be ideal. 

I am in first by a game and look to be playoff bound, even if I drop the remaining 3 given point total; been in first place for the majority of the season. This is not a beat-my-chest/look-at-me comment as it has screwed me multiple times this year thanks to worst-to-first waivers.

Time and time again I'm scooped by the #2-4 teams in quality pickups for depth or high value weekly waiver pickups.

Example: I am in bye hell this week with both starting RBs on bye, and needing to cover injury to WR and TE. I knew I wasn't getting Hill, but had Moestert in my sights as I think a) he'll be useful this week, and 2) has upside ROS thanks to the fragility of hte rest of that backfield. But he was taken by the #2 pick with his first waiver claim. This makes his team so much stronger this week and in terms of flex/depth, while I am left with scrubs. 

Happened with pre-emptive pickups like Foles where I was looking to cover starting QB injury and looking for depth/risk protection into the playoffs. Again, #2 team snagged him right before me.

Happened with hot pickups like Drake (#4 Team snagged him),  PIT D midseason (#3 team), Hunt (#3 team)....I could go on but this is already a bit of a  /   thread already.

tl:dr point being this: I am wondering if the huge advantage of getting a bye by being 1st and 2nd may be offset by being able to build depth, coverage, and upside by having a lower waiver claim every week. Seem a no-brainer to reduce the chances of a playoff loss/needing to win 2 instead of 3 games by being the highest seeds, but if your team is demostrably weaker compared to seeds 3-6 who have more of an advantage building depth/upside through waivers, that might help you win playoff games even more.

Yes, I know going FAAB or another method is a solve -- we're a bunch of old fogies in our league (myself included) and I've brought that up for a vote time and time again as commish - we seem set in our ways.

I hate waivers without FAAB. I'd rather have first come, first serve with no waiver periods than reverse order. I detest it. 

That said, good luck pointing to the shirt!

I think ensuring you "win" the first round with a bye is much more important than depth.  In the playoffs (once nfl byes are done) depth loses a lot of importance.  You are only going to win if your starters perform well and win the week.  It doesn't matter what your depth looks like.  As the season goes on I try and maximize starter potential by moving depth.  Once byes are over having three WR3's to choose from for 1 spot can drive you bonkers and get you in trouble.  Consolidate that depth into a WR2 (or WR1 if you trade well) and your starting lineup is much better and gives you a better chance to win. 

On a side note FAAB is much better than a worst to first order and should be the only way to go. 

Not even close.  The first round bye is infinitely more valuable.  Don't overthink it.

In your case, I would much rather get the bye and not have to play week 14.  My suggestion is to handcuff your team for the playoffs.  If you have a RB like Zeke, Pollard is much more important for you than Brian Hill.  You are in first for a reason - your starters are performing.  If the guys who put you in first start get injured just as your playoffs start, no amount of waiver picks are gonna help, except maybe the handcuffs to those players.

Interesting topic.  I'm in an 12 team league where 8 make the playoffs and waivers reset each week on standings.  It's a pain because it's a short bench (4) and good players become readily available.  Being a 1 seed offers nothing (I'm currently tied with 2 other teams for first) but Points for season leader gets a good chunk of money (50% of transaction fee's + more cash) so that's what I'm going for.

 The top seeds always lose round one as the bottom teams get healthier or come into the playoff's hot with priority claims.

There's not really anyway around it as the league won't adapt to blind bidding.  I have a love/hate relationship with this league.  You really have to navigate the year/bye's with a short bench and shallow lineup.  I've 2 for 1 a bunch of trades to form a lineup that's 250+ up on points with six weeks to go but with a shallow lineup, come playoff time, it's whoever DST or kicker goes off and whatever position player gets a 50+ yard TD or two.

But every passing week I watch other teams in the 6-8 seed range pick up players like JuJu and Kirk (I dropped Kirk last week on NE bye, our DST scoring is different)

FAAB is really the only way to go.   Worst to first is the absolute worst way to do waivers.

Even with old-fashioned waivers, which most casual leagues still cling to, the value of a bye is astronomical.  We all know that bad beats happen in the playoffs when all teams are strong and a fluke performance can swing outcomes.  Being able to dodge one of those variance bullets is huge, compared to adding a single performer to a lineup already strong enough to get there.

You know you don't have to jump all the way to FAAB, right? Most if not all of the free platforms offer rolling waiver order - where the first waiver run is set in the inverse order of draft position, and then each time a waiver claim is processed, that team moves to the back of the line. Effectively, in any given week, the waiver order is least recent to most recent waiver claim made.

It's not as strategic as FAAB, but it's a hell of a lot more fair than a weekly reset. Worst-to-first that resets every week would be an absolute deal-breaker for me in any new league.

I won't play in any leagues where waivers isn't run by FAAB.

That said, I want the bye in the 1st round every time.  I don't care how good your team is......you are never a lock to advance.  Even if you're a 20 point favorite, you're probably only a 70/30 favorite.

Say you're the best team in the playoffs and you will be a 3-2 favorite against all teams.  The odds of winning the championship is 36% with the bye vs 21% without the bye.  That's a big edge.

Mr. Irrelevant said:

You know you don't have to jump all the way to FAAB, right? Most if not all of the free platforms offer rolling waiver order - where the first waiver run is set in the inverse order of draft position, and then each time a waiver claim is processed, that team moves to the back of the line. Effectively, in any given week, the waiver order is least recent to most recent waiver claim made.

It's not as strategic as FAAB, but it's a hell of a lot more fair than a weekly reset. Worst-to-first that resets every week would be an absolute deal-breaker for me in any new league.

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I am not entirely sure I agree with this.  I don't think the worst to first is inherently unfair depending on what you are trying to accomplish.   The idea is that the lesser teams need more help and therefore get a priority waiver position.  This isn't unfair.  It's just one way to view how waivers should run.  It depends on what you are trying to accomplish.  I much prefer the blind bid because I think it gives an advantage to people that pay attention however I don't think the other's are deal breakers.  It just leads to a different strategy. 

Gally said:

I think ensuring you "win" the first round with a bye is much more important than depth.  In the playoffs (once nfl byes are done) depth loses a lot of importance.  You are only going to win if your starters perform well and win the week.  It doesn't matter what your depth looks like.  As the season goes on I try and maximize starter potential by moving depth.  

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Solid info here. A bye = a win.  That doubles your chance of winning.

Walking Boot said:

The bye is worth it. If you're concerned about waivers, consider this: with the bye, you get at least 1 or 2 more roster spots than your competition. You can go a full week without a kicker and not have to worry about a week 14 defense, too. That gives you room to claim backups, lotto tickets, and just extra guys in general to approach week 15 ahead of your competitors. 

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Agree, in leagues where I likely have the bye wrapped up, I've added a few DST's to play keep away for Week 15.

Gally said:

I am not entirely sure I agree with this.  I don't think the worst to first is inherently unfair depending on what you are trying to accomplish.   The idea is that the lesser teams need more help and therefore get a priority waiver position.  This isn't unfair.  It's just one way to view how waivers should run.  It depends on what you are trying to accomplish.  I much prefer the blind bid because I think it gives an advantage to people that pay attention however I don't think the other's are deal breakers.  It just leads to a different strategy. 

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My problem with it is that I don't think it lends to strategy, per se, at all. With FAAB, you have to decide "should I spend $X on this player or keep it in reserve for later?" With rolling order, it's "should I blow the high waiver priority I built up by holding off for a couple of weeks, or hold it in case a better option comes along next week?" But with a weekly reset, the only question is "OK, I'm in 5th place - am I gonna get any of the 3 guys I'd actually want to add to my roster this week, or not?" That's not strategy IMO, unless your strategy is "tank the first couple of games and hope a big name or two goes down so I can grab their replacements for free".

Reverse order is stupid.  FAAB is ok, but I prefer a waiver order that moves you to the bottom after making a transaction.

Mr. Irrelevant said:

My problem with it is that I don't think it lends to strategy, per se, at all. With FAAB, you have to decide "should I spend $X on this player or keep it in reserve for later?" With rolling order, it's "should I blow the high waiver priority I built up by holding off for a couple of weeks, or hold it in case a better option comes along next week?" But with a weekly reset, the only question is "OK, I'm in 5th place - am I gonna get any of the 3 guys I'd actually want to add to my roster this week, or not?" That's not strategy IMO, unless your strategy is "tank the first couple of games and hope a big name or two goes down so I can grab their replacements for free".

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Yes, doesn't help with strategy. Not arguing worst to first isn't a pain, but the argument guys in my league give is that it helps retain parity, enable guys who were really snakebitten to raise their team up, etc. I think those can also be solved with rolling or FAAB, but there you have it.

Gally said:

I am not entirely sure I agree with this.  I don't think the worst to first is inherently unfair depending on what you are trying to accomplish.   The idea is that the lesser teams need more help and therefore get a priority waiver position.  This isn't unfair.  It's just one way to view how waivers should run.  It depends on what you are trying to accomplish.  I much prefer the blind bid because I think it gives an advantage to people that pay attention however I don't think the other's are deal breakers.  It just leads to a different strategy. 

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this right here. my league went FAAB years ago and wont look back. but reverse order definitely has a place in ff, especially in more friendly leagues that have people who may not be "sharks." it keeps the league competitive and that's never a bad thing, like in a office league or a family league where winning by any means necessary isn't the goal.

We seem to be getting off topic.  The OP has already stated these guys are set in their ways, so let's get back to the question at hand.  Bye vs a better WW pick?  For me, it's 100% a no-brainer - gimme the bye.  What we are failing to talk about is that even if you are the bottom seed in the playoffs in this league, there are still 8 teams ahead of you on the WW list.  How many weeks are there where the 9th waiver pick nearing playoff time is actually worth anything?  Would this week's Brian Hill really be available to the guy in 6th place?  Not a chance in hell.  Remember, the 3rd place guy all season not only has to play in week 14, he is getting the 12th best waiver option each week, which amounts to garbage.

TheWinz said:

We seem to be getting off topic.  The OP has already stated these guys are set in their ways, so let's get back to the question at hand.  Bye vs a better WW pick?  For me, it's 100% a no-brainer - gimme the bye.  What we are failing to talk about is that even if you are the bottom seed in the playoffs in this league, there are still 8 teams ahead of you on the WW list.  How many weeks are there where the 9th waiver pick nearing playoff time is actually worth anything?  Would this week's Brian Hill really be available to the guy in 6th place?  Not a chance in hell.  Remember, the 3rd place guy all season not only has to play in week 14, he is getting the 12th best waiver option each week, which amounts to garbage.

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If the 3rd place guy is there all season then his team is doing quite well and probably is just improving depth off the waivers and isn't needing that to fill gaping holes.  As playoff's approach your depth is meaningless.  If you get a key injury to your top 5 QB that carried you all season getting someone off waivers isn't really going to replace him and your playoffs are probably done anyway.  Once the playoffs start it is 100% about your starting lineup.  Waiver wire filler at that point in the season generally won't help if you get key injuries.  Yes, there can be exceptions but if you have an injury mid game your season likely is over anyway even if you had top priority. 

Gally said:

If the 3rd place guy is there all season then his team is doing quite well and probably is just improving depth off the waivers and isn't needing that to fill gaping holes.  As playoff's approach your depth is meaningless.  If you get a key injury to your top 5 QB that carried you all season getting someone off waivers isn't really going to replace him and your playoffs are probably done anyway.  Once the playoffs start it is 100% about your starting lineup.  Waiver wire filler at that point in the season generally won't help if you get key injuries.  Yes, there can be exceptions but if you have an injury mid game your season likely is over anyway even if you had top priority. 

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Agreed.  My point was that in the OP's league, any team in 6th place or higher is getting scraps off the wire, because every week, 8 other teams are getting first dibs.

Gally said:

I am not entirely sure I agree with this.  I don't think the worst to first is inherently unfair depending on what you are trying to accomplish.   The idea is that the lesser teams need more help and therefore get a priority waiver position.  This isn't unfair.  It's just one way to view how waivers should run.  It depends on what you are trying to accomplish.  I much prefer the blind bid because I think it gives an advantage to people that pay attention however I don't think the other's are deal breakers.  It just leads to a different strategy. 

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Why would you want to give the trailing teams first chance at waivers week after week after week?  It is the definition of unfair. 

Several equitable ways to do it; blind bid, a rolling list... but "worst to first"?  Never.

TheWinz said:

We seem to be getting off topic.  The OP has already stated these guys are set in their ways, so let's get back to the question at hand.  Bye vs a better WW pick?  For me, it's 100% a no-brainer - gimme the bye.  What we are failing to talk about is that even if you are the bottom seed in the playoffs in this league, there are still 8 teams ahead of you on the WW list.  How many weeks are there where the 9th waiver pick nearing playoff time is actually worth anything?  Would this week's Brian Hill really be available to the guy in 6th place?  Not a chance in hell.  Remember, the 3rd place guy all season not only has to play in week 14, he is getting the 12th best waiver option each week, which amounts to garbage.

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I don't mind the divergence as it's brought up some good conversation, but thanks for your thoughts on the crux of the Q.

I think the consensus seems to be that it's better to have the bye -- for the great reasons you and others list.

Here's an additional thought experiment - I think the choice of "always prefer to have a bye" may also assume that your starters who got you to the dance are 100% healthy and firing on all cylinders. 

What if they aren't? 

My question was also borne from the fact that guys in lower seeds (even 2 through 6) are better able to fill their holes with better quality waiver selections than the #1 seed.

Would you rather have a bye as the #1 seed with a weaker squad thanks to injury and lack of depth/flex options than have to play in the first week of playoffs with stronger starting/bench options thanks to what you were able to do on the wire then the #1 seed could?

DropKick said:

Why would you want to give the trailing teams first chance at waivers week after week after week?  It is the definition of unfair. 

Several equitable ways to do it; blind bid, a rolling list... but "worst to first"?  Never.

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The reason to give them 1st waiver priority every week is because they are inferior teams and need the help.  This is set up to try and ensure parity in a league.  If the rich get richer then half the league stops participating and the league goes south.

If you are trying to keep parity this is a fair way to do this.  If you do not want to give a nudge to the last place team to try and help parity then FAAB or rolling priority is better.

I am not a fan of reverse priority only but there is a reason for it.

Gally said:

The reason to give them 1st waiver priority every week is because they are inferior teams and need the help.  This is set up to try and ensure parity in a league.  If the rich get richer then half the league stops participating and the league goes south.

If you are trying to keep parity this is a fair way to do this.  If you do not want to give a nudge to the last place team to try and help parity then FAAB or rolling priority is better.

I am not a fan of reverse priority only but there is a reason for it.

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We draft NFL style so last year's non-playoff teams get high draft picks.  They also start the season with waiver priority so they have ample opportunity to improve their team. 

I think you're going overboard in an attempt to create "parity".  Let teams compete by making shrewd picks or trades.  It's condescending to label them as inferior teams that need help.

DropKick said:

We draft NFL style so last year's non-playoff teams get high draft picks.  They also start the season with waiver priority so they have ample opportunity to improve their team. 

I think you're going overboard in an attempt to create "parity".  Let teams compete by making shrewd picks or trades.  It's condescending to label them as inferior teams that need help.

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Are you in a dynasty league?  That case is very much different than a redraft of friends/family/co-workers where there may be people that aren't living and breathing fantasy football.  In a dynasty league, I agree that is a different beast and should be FAAB style.

If you are in a redraft and do NFL style draft then I think that is completely unfair.  You have nobody from your team that won the league yet you get the last pick every round.  That is as unfair as it would get.

In friendly redraft leagues where people don't pay a lot of attention having a reverse waiver order has a purpose and a place to help keep the league competitive.  It's not a one size fits all situation but if you know that going in it is not inherently unfair.