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TripItUp

2020 Sleepers/Busts/Value Plays

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Buy: Zac Gallen, Stanton, and Frankie Montas

Sell At their price: Ohtani (he’s awesome, just tough to know what his play schedule will be - west coast makes it tough for daily leagues), Kris Bryant, Tatis Jr (had top 10 BABIP of all time at .410)

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@ToddZolecki
Jean Segura came to camp 14 pounds lighter. Eating better, sleeping more, no more whiskey. Said he is willing to play wherever the #Phillies want him to play.

Best shape of his life AND he gave up whiskey! Gettum.

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14 hours ago, bigmarc27 said:

Buy: Zac Gallen, Stanton, and Frankie Montas

Sell At their price: Ohtani (he’s awesome, just tough to know what his play schedule will be - west coast makes it tough for daily leagues), Kris Bryant, Tatis Jr (had top 10 BABIP of all time at .410)

I like Gallen, but something to follow.

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6 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

I like Gallen, but something to follow.

Definitely possible because he does have options, but if they’re serious about competing I think he starts with the club. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s there best starter by year’s end. 

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I figured his ADP would move by now, but since it hasn't just go ahead and pencil in Rafael Devers into your round 2 plan. He had a 22 adp on fantasy pros at the end of January and it's only moved to 21. Yahoo has him #31, but he may be more difficult to acquire in ESPN - #18.

He hit his first bomb of 2019 on May 3rd - from that day-on he net 112/32/105/4/315/351/594. The extrapolation from arbitrary end points game is always a dicey one, but a 135/38/126/5/315 full season line would be head turning (and he could run more). He's still just 23. And there are no warning signs in his under lying periph's - only reasons to expect more of the same or...more.

I'm still fleshing things out, but the only players I know I'm ranking over him in standard 5x5 are Acuna, Trout, Yelich, Bellinger, Lindor, and Story. If this sustains then I think the only way I don't get him is if I have a top 5 pick and I'm more than okay with that trade-off.

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Devers is a solid second rounder but I don't think he's first round material yet.  The power is legit but I'd rather draft a hitter who can give you double digit steals.  He had 8 SB last year but with only a 50% success rate.  One factor in his favor is when his new manager Ron Roenicke managed Milwaukee, the Brewers lead the lead in SBs.

3B is very deep this year.

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On 2/17/2020 at 11:25 AM, E-Z Glider said:
Quote

@ToddZolecki
Jean Segura came to camp 14 pounds lighter. Eating better, sleeping more, no more whiskey. Said he is willing to play wherever the #Phillies want him to play.

Best shape of his life AND he gave up whiskey! Gettum.

Mods, please move to the "best shape of his life" and/or "sober February" thread. TIA. 

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15 hours ago, Eephus said:

Devers is a solid second rounder but I don't think he's first round material yet.  The power is legit but I'd rather draft a hitter who can give you double digit steals.  He had 8 SB last year but with only a 50% success rate.  One factor in his favor is when his new manager Ron Roenicke managed Milwaukee, the Brewers lead the lead in SBs.

3B is very deep this year.

Me too, but unless you're willing to take batting average risk that list may just be Mookie and Trea. Mookie ran quite a bit less last year and the highest SB total under Dave Roberts/Andrew Friedman is 17. I'm torn about Trea vs. Devers, but now that I think about it if I'm in a spot to pick Trea then there's probably a good chance I can just come back with Devers.

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4 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

Me too, but unless you're willing to take batting average risk that list may just be Mookie and Trea. Mookie ran quite a bit less last year and the highest SB total under Dave Roberts/Andrew Friedman is 17. I'm torn about Trea vs. Devers, but now that I think about it if I'm in a spot to pick Trea then there's probably a good chance I can just come back with Devers.

NFBC ADP has Turner at #9 and Devers at #21 so it's possible to come away with both in 12 teamers.

Good point about LA's running game.  They've been below NL averages in SB attempts the past three years.

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11 minutes ago, Eephus said:

NFBC ADP has Turner at #9 and Devers at #21 so it's possible to come away with both in 12 teamers.

Good point about LA's running game.  They've been below NL averages in SB attempts the past three years.

With a manager who's famous for stealing a base.

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25 minutes ago, rodg12 said:

With a manager who's famous for stealing a base.

Managers seem to have less individual authority to control the running game than they once did.  Like everything else, it's part of organizational groupthink these days.  Roberts' Dodgers teams have attempted steals of 2nd at a Rate+ of 82 (par=100).  Roenicke had a SBA+ of 109 with the Brewers while Cora was 99 in his two years in Boston.

There are three modern managers who are among the top 50 career leaders in steals.  Molitor's teams stole 2nd at a league average rate while Davey Lopes the manager had a below average SBA+ of 91.  Maury Wills' two partial seasons managing the Mariners must have been fun.  They attempted steals of 2nd at a rate almost 30% higher than the already high rates of the early 80s.

 

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5 minutes ago, Eephus said:

Managers seem to have less individual authority to control the running game than they once did.  Like everything else, it's part of organizational groupthink these days.  Roberts' Dodgers teams have attempted steals of 2nd at a Rate+ of 82 (par=100).  Roenicke had a SBA+ of 109 with the Brewers while Cora was 99 in his two years in Boston.

There are three modern managers who are among the top 50 career leaders in steals.  Molitor's teams stole 2nd at a league average rate while Davey Lopes the manager had a below average SBA+ of 91.  Maury Wills' two partial seasons managing the Mariners must have been fun.  They attempted steals of 2nd at a rate almost 30% higher than the already high rates of the early 80s.

 

For sure!  Just thought it was a funny coincidence that his teams didn't run.  Good stats on Molitor, Lopes and Wills.

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Maury Wills brief managerial career sounds interesting

Quote

Reporters hammered Wills for his curious decision-making. Among his list of supposed blunders: He called for a relief pitcher but had forgotten to tell anyone to warm up. He said outfielder Leon Roberts would be his starting center fielder. The problem? The Mariners had traded Roberts more than a month earlier. Another time, he called infielder Dave Edler into the manager’s office and demoted him to Triple A. Then catcher Brad Gulden walked by. On a dime, Wills demoted Gulden instead of Edler

 

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On 2/18/2020 at 6:59 PM, Eephus said:

Devers is a solid second rounder but I don't think he's first round material yet.  The power is legit but I'd rather draft a hitter who can give you double digit steals.  He had 8 SB last year but with only a 50% success rate.  One factor in his favor is when his new manager Ron Roenicke managed Milwaukee, the Brewers lead the lead in SBs.

3B is very deep this year.

even those 8 steals are deceptive. i made offers on him in every league as soon as i sensed his bustout was genuine  (cuz his April was slow). i remember having an offer rebuffed in Cakeleeg in early June cuz he had 8 steals already. never got another, of course -

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I like Bumgarner...he regained velocity and other important metrics that makes me think he'll be under the radar in the middle rounds.   Yes, the move to AZ hurts some, but I think there's still value to be had.

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Kyle Schwarber in the 2nd half of last season had a .997 OPS, with 20 homeruns. This was with a semi-brutal stretch in August where he went about a week between hits.

It seemed like the light bulb clicked on for him. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, TripItUp said:

I like Bumgarner...he regained velocity and other important metrics that makes me think he'll be under the radar in the middle rounds.   Yes, the move to AZ hurts some, but I think there's still value to be had.

Love Bum in real life but there are other fantasy SPs around his 124 ADP (Montas, Gallen, Fried) that have higher upside.  None of them run the Mason Saunders alias schtick thought.

Edited by Eephus

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I've been burned by him before but I like Maikel Franco as an end of draft pick.

I'm still riding the Niko Goodrum bandwagon but I'm finally admitting defeat on Mikie Mahtook.

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9 hours ago, Encyclopedia Brown said:

Kyle Schwarber in the 2nd half of last season had a .997 OPS, with 20 homeruns. This was with a semi-brutal stretch in August where he went about a week between hits.

It seemed like the light bulb clicked on for him. 

Is Ross going to play him v lefties? Last season's 229/306/450 against them in 76 AB's was more than 100 OPS points better than his previous high. But that still may not be good enough to warrant every day AB's, especially if his leash is still short.

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7 hours ago, Eephus said:

I've been burned by him before but I like Maikel Franco as an end of draft pick.

We need to start a support group. I can't quit Maikel, even though he's asked me to repeatedly over the last 4 years.

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8 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

Is Ross going to play him v lefties? Last season's 229/306/450 against them in 76 AB's was more than 100 OPS points better than his previous high. But that still may not be good enough to warrant every day AB's, especially if his leash is still short.

There is really no one to sit Schwarber for. Almora was brutal last year, and Souza and Kipnis are stopgap type of players at this point in their careers. 

I would guess Ross slots him fifth and keeps him there. 

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Pitchers I like are Montas, Josh James (if he gets in the rotation), Nate Pearson (when he gets the call), Robbie Ray

 

Hitters I like are Mercado, Madrigal (when he gets the call),  Abreu (because he is boring and will be able to get later), K Davis will bounce back and stay healthy.  Yandy Diaz as a later corner guy.

 

Staying away from Houston hitters unless there is a big discount.  I think the weight of the pressure every away game will get to them.  Staying away from Suarez because I think the shoulder zaps his power. 

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