This post needs a downvote. He started with "if" for a reason. This is a horrible strawman post and does nothing but inflame the discussion. He didn't suggest it, he suggested if they "could" they "probably" would - you know, like how vaccines work? I would bet money that if they knew for sure that getting it once made you immune ala chicken pox (or even just long enough to get through the season) then a whole lot of players would willingly take the chance now while they are young and healthy and in the offseason.
I agree with this. that user has done his fair share of trolling this topic but I didn’t see that as a bad faith comment.
i do believe he’s playing fast & loose with estimations of seventy though. Claims of any player that gets it being just fine in 2 weeks when it can last months even with mild symptoms, or comments that only the elderly are severely impacted. Those simply aren’t true.
Not to dehumanize the tragedy, but a pandemic is largely about math.
in a given population, x% are going to catch it, y% will become very ill, and z% will die.
there are underlying factors for who that is, & how they’re effected. It initially hit concentrated populations, which gives a false sense of security to younger people that they shouldn’t be afraid of this disease.
some of those factors may include
• obesity
• diabetes or pre-diabetic conditions
• Sickle cell
• hepatitis
• herpes or other forms of STD
• any prior history of blood disease - think Eric Berry having battled Leukemia. He’s not the only player who’s beaten cancer or some other blood-related issue.
• and yes, age.
and in a population that spans a range, like an NFL locker room with coaches in their 40s-70s, equipment managers, players, etc, you’re going to see a wide range of effects in the event of an outbreak.
that’s why I said there was an early illusion of the elderly being disproportionately effected. Yes, the elderly are higher risk. Obviously. They’re higher risk of everything including dying of a hairline hip-fracture related case of sepsis after the tiniest of falls (how my grandmother went) - but in a larger population, where it isn’t the high concentration of the elderly, you’ll see a more proportionate distribution. the elderly will still be more vulnerable, but not like in a care facility where there are 48 elderly patients & 6 care givers. You can’t look at that and make any sort of sweeping generalization about a larger more diverse population.
i thought “disproportionate” needed no explanation yet here we are.
and yes HSG, I know there are potential long term effects. Yes, I know it's not just a killer of the elderly. I'm talking about what a young, ego-inflated bajillionaire NFL player would be willing to risk given the percentages vs. losing out on NFL games/season/career.
I think that’s a great point. I’m looking at it from the “what they should do” or “what the league might do”, but you’re spot on. Young players can be ego-driven, head strong. They may be comprised of a population similar to the general public, with many believing this is a hoax, some believing its a Q-Anon conspiracy that the global elite are infecting the water supply or whatever nutty thing’s going around the interwebs today. And some % will not want to play unless they believe it’s safe.
but you’re spot on that some players will be just fine with whatever because they want to make money & play football.
I think the impact of these early cases are going to be minimal for now. We all knew this was coming. Players are in their offseason stupidity mode. EZE is one of the dumbest players out there so no surprise he's one of the coronablazers. If anything it's a harsh reinforcement to the NFL and teams that there's going to be no letting up and they better plan now. If I'm an NFL team I would be preparing my meeting rooms to be virtual, with coaches and non-players in a different room. I might even just set up a whole ton of one-man rooms like when you go visit the home office and rotate meetings that way. The entire season is going to be one big distancing exercise. Fewer coaches on the sidelines. Players in a staging area that aren't playing. Maybe a stadium can clear out space under the stands for equipment and supplies to be stored to create distancing space on the field.
On the field, coaching will rule more supreme than in past seasons. Teams are going to have to make very fast, very significant adjustments to their games. Think about losing a player like EZE for 5 weeks - who do we think can handle that loss better, Mike McCarthy or a guy like Tomlin? The strongest coaching staffs are going to really stand out.
This will be fascinating to see. As a former PM, I can say the logistics are staggering for such a project. Teams or the league will have to hire epidemiologists, develop best practices, distancing, filter masks on the sidelines? Woof. It’s a lot. Coaching staffs are getting younger compared to past eras, but there are still some higher risk groups with regard to age & preexisting conditions.
also “2 weeks” is a time-frame people need to stop using. The illness can last for months. More typically it’s 2-3 weeks for mild symptoms. Then 2 weeks is the period that one needs to test negative to leave quarantine.
one thing you didn’t mention here - what if a HC gets it? Or an OC, DC? These aren’t easily replaceable positions. Not that replacing your QB or RB for a month would be easy, but losing a coach would not be nothing.
i don’t know the answers. It’ll be interesting to see what they do.