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Everything posted by strong

  1. i tried searching for this, but doesn't seem he's got his own thread. he's a tad undersized at 5'10" & 192 lbs. but he comps pretty well with danny woodhead. he saw 15% of the snaps week one. it's doubtful he'd ever see the workhorse role should anything happen to lamar, but i am surprised there's so little talk of such an explosive rookie who's basically the receiving down back for a team right off the bat. anyone stashing this guy or have hopes he works his way into fantasy relevancy this season?
  2. right. because my whole point is about having one bad FF game... but this isn't about results. it's about opportunities. and i'm curious about highly picked healthy rookie receivers getting little to no opportunities. and even though i know you're just being a #####, no. gurley wouldn't be any lower than he was the other day. i'm sure plenty of 2nd year RBs who had studly rookie years had a bad first game 2nd year. he still started. he's still the main focal point on offense. and be honest: would you draft fuller, shepard, sharpe, coleman ahead of treadwell now? i'm thinking a good number of people who drafted treadwell would pull a trigger straight up right now for any of those guys... and hey. i'm holding treadwell until he gets some game action at least. i'm just trying to find historical examples. i'm glad someone like roddy white exists. it just makes me a little nervous that it was so long ago...
  3. i agree. i'm not suggesting there's no need for patience with a rookie receiver or in dynasty. and i'm not exactly asking about guys who merely didn't set the world on fire in week one. i'm just interested in finding players with similar trajectories who didn't even see the field and were healthy. i think there's helpful context in looking at that. some around here are obviously uninterested in that sort of thing since each player is a unique snowflake and historical data be damned. but it seems you have to throw out a lot of previous data and find unique excuses (or reasons, i guess) for treadwell's inactivity to feel comfortable that his dyno value is in the same spot it was two days ago. i'm not making any predictions, but my guess is, though, that if rookie dyno drafts were held today, treadwell has fallen behind several players that he was ahead of just a week or two ago.
  4. right. because having a discussion about historical comps is being a veruca salt.
  5. troubling could be defined as of the last 42 round 1 receivers, only 1 was healthy and uninvolved in week 1 and still went on to be worth their dyno draft spot.(totally just making an assumption since so far we've only come up with one name...) and listen, i get that there's situation and reason to be patient. and i'm not suggesting he's cut worthy. but even assuming treadwell is in the worst spot ever of all time for a 1st round receiver in the last 11 years (which is an assumption), there's something to be said that he didn't even see a play. just trying to figure out what it means... most of you seem to feel it means nothing. but honestly that's not very compelling if roddy white is the only example we can find...
  6. interesting. first round player. active but not involved until midseason and turned it up after that. that's a good comp, especially if we buy into the idea that they didn't show much early in their rookie seasons for similar reasons. it is admittedly a little troubling that we've had to go back to 2005 considering there's been 42 first round receivers selected in that time frame...
  7. as a career arc? sure. it's nice to see that other players who were non-existent in their first game turned out fine. but as a comp, he was a 6th round pick and i think it's safe to operate under slightly different expectations with how 1st rounders and 6th rounders play in their rookie season.
  8. thanks. looked into these: d thomas: stress fracture and didn't suit up. first game week 2: 8 for 87 on 9 targets. michael crabtree: contract hold out and din't sign until october 7. suited up three weeks later. first game week 6: 5 for 56 on 6 targets. k allen: didn't play week 1 even after denario alexander suffered a torn ACL in preseason. after floyd suffered a season ending injury week 1, allen saw some playing time and targets week 2: 2 for 34 on 3 targets. a robinson: barely targeted week 1 but week 2: 4 for 75 on 6 targets. personally, i think comparing treadwell with later round picks muddies the waters. we all know there's been plenty of late bloomers. we're looking for high end draft picks who failed to move up the depth chart early on but still turned into productive pros. and allen robinson might be a decent comp here as someone who didn't show week 1 and gives us something to hope for. but still it's kind of disconcerting if there is hardly any precedent for this sort of "wait and see" approach on a first round talent... my hunch is if it doesn't seem like his playing time is going to increase soon and we don't get some positive news soon, i'd recommend biting the bullet and jumping ship hoping other people are still reading preseason dyno rankings.
  9. if you think finding historical comps is pointless, then fine. but personally, i'd rather not just throw darts blindfolded while listening to some coach speak... i come from a camp that believes if there are zero good comps then there's reason for alarm... even if it's one game.
  10. and while i agree that one game shouldn't change much, my question was can anyone find comps that give a healthy, benched round 1 receiver like treadwell a positive outlook. looking around, i don't see any examples that turned out bright. im fine on the theories of dyno and understand that his age is a factor. im curious about the realities and so far nobody has mentioned any names...
  11. so basically he didn't even see the field in week 1. he's either an amazing buy low in dyno or the future isn't bright. i'm trying to think of recent receivers who started so low on depth chart while healthy and still panned out in the first few years... not having much luck. anyone have any comps for this? any silver lining?
  12. @johnelway tweet: so much for wondering about his dyno value if he went somewhere else...
  13. emmanuel sanders on twitter: https://twitter.com/ESanders_10/status/772090531140734976 sounds like he's gunning for free agency. i know it's a long ways away and the landing spot matters a great deal, but i'm curious whether the likelihood he bolts for another team is a net positive or negative on his dyno value. could he put up WR1 numbers in the right situation?
  14. GRONK traveled with the team. John Paulsen said on his podcast that the pats have a long history of activating questionable players who travel with the team.
  15. The offense isn't as run heavy or conservative as advertised. And the double teams may diminish if the contributions from Harvin and Clay continue (Woods is also a decent threat too). Wait until Watkins gets healthy and then decide for yourself. I'm confident the points will be there. The offense is incredibly run heavy. Have to see about the injury, but I can't imagine starting him with any confidence until he has a fairly big game AND stays healthy, which could take a while. So far this hasn't been true. Um, of course it has been true so far. 97 rush 78 pass. Factoring in Taylor's 17 rushes (scrambles), the pass calls are about 50/50... which is pretty significant considering they had big, early leads in 2 of their first 3 games. 50/50 would still make them a bottom 5 passing team... even if you chose to count those running plays as passing plays. But, as I said above, you also have to factor in the fact that they raced out to large early leads in 2 out of their first 3 games. That's not going to happen again in most of their regular season games. In addition, Taylor is much better than anticipated and they are already starting to open up the offense more than at the start of the season. The passing opportunities and targets for Watkins are trending up once he's back. as a watkins owner, i think he's a great buy in dyno leagues right now. i still have faith in his talent, but i know as a watkins owner his price is pretty low right now and i'd consider some pretty low-ball offers right now.
  16. seems odd for a guy so young with so many reps to lose a step. but as a crowell believer and someone who invested in him in my contract league, i'm pretty disappointed in what he's shown this year. that said, i'm still holding out hope that things might look a little different with manziel in there. so i'll wait until the inevitable QB switch happens before i cut bait on him.
  17. i hope people bought low on him. no other FF player's value took such a hit after week 1 and had owners listening to offers. doubt he sniffs the top 3, but he couldve been had for a bag of chips yesterday and there's a good chance he still lands around QB8 or so. easily could have been had for a backup QB or WR4.
  18. yeah it was strange. never seen peterson in so many shotgun formations or the vikings using so many spread formations. and never seen him in on so many 3rd and longs. he's been a 2 down back his whole career. those are the takeaways. upside is for the first time in his career, peterson is a three down back and possibly could have 50+ catches. downside is bridgewater didn't look capable of sustaining much of an offense. he was wildly inaccurate last night.
  19. it was two straight play-action passes to be fair. they got cute, but they were trying to trick the 49ers and everyone else who thought peterson would get the ball on the first two plays.
  20. your team is going to be having problems if you get to the point where you're considering starting woodhead over those guys...
  21. it continues to shock me how quickly this guy gets a yard or two separation. that last route was just three steps and he was already pretty wide open. lookin forward to starting this guy for years. best part was a leaguemate who's been chirping about how much better kelvin is all year said before the play that if sammy scores he'll shut up about him forever. woohoo!
  22. Disagree. Neither is near NFL Starter Accuracy at the moment, and accuracy is probably a toss up between the two. But Pryor's got a stronger arm. His motion is a million times smoother, and Tebow takes about a second longer the get rid of the ball. As a QB, Pryor's got a better chance of succeeding as an NFL QB over the long term than Tebow does... of course that's not saying a whole lot.
  23. dear god. get a room (or sanzenbacher/bennett thread) you two.
  24. Anyone watching tonight? From twitter and stats, looks like he's in the game early and often... gotta like a rookie WR earning starter reps. How's he lookin?
  25. I think Bloom is going to regret that comment. Jeffery was arguably the best receiver in the SEC for the last two years. Struggled some midseason last year with terrible QB problems, but found his form late. I can't remember how many times he made SEC defenders look foolish. I like him. And I'm fine he's being drafted late-ish. I grabbed him at 2.7 in a rookie draft. Dude's got some mitts. http://i.minus.com/ifmYWclQe1ihG.gif
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