Good Posting Judge

I know it's been beaten to death in here, but the gambling advice on his show is uniformly terrible and should not be followed by anyone. This is no different than "the Daily Wager," "Fox Bet Live," Cowherd, etc.

Couple things I like comin' up: Florian Marku over Charlton -125 (playable up to -175 imo) Jamel Herring over Frampton +120/+110 (playable to -150, I think? I'm just way off the market on this one. Feel like it'll correct back towards me as we get closer tho) Had some intel about a fight this weekend, but the whole situation's a little too fuzzy and the books weren't cooperative. Alas. Everyone good?

He's going to (edit: drunkenly) hydroplane a Tesla into a tree and kill his girlfriend in a few years, isn't he?

Canelo/Smith over 9.5 rounds

Dave Mason, the head guy at BetOnline, said it was their biggest decision ever. By quite a bit. Some people were betting without realizing the rules had changed. other people followed them off the cliff. There was a loud argument on gambling twitter about who predicted election outcomes better, the modelers like Nate and Elliott Morris or the betting markets. I would say that debate's been pretty firmly decided.

Actually in a situation like this, it wouldn't surprise me. The liability books were carrying on Trump was massive. It's not true for random Thursday MAC games, but for something like this, I can def see it.

Playing against the market a bit, but I like Saucedo +170 in the co-main event. Should be a very close, high-volume fight.

Took him KO/UD -175. I like that more than KO, UD, or straight up, just because I think most Teofimo win-outcomes end up with him getting a KO, I don't see many Teo decisions/draws/close Lomachenko decisions. And if they're fighting close rounds the whole way through, again, I don't see Lomachenko seeing the end. But more often than not I think Loma controls this fight, also would not rule out a Lomachenko stoppage. -400 I'm pretty ambivalent on. If that were my only option I'd probably lay off, so I can't recommend it in a parlay.

Yeah I'm taking whatever they say and assuming he's like two levels below that.

LOL I gotta check this out.

I've been seriously handicapping boxing this year, and I run into the same thing, although boxing is by no means as tough to beat as the NFL so there are some pretty bad prices (Bet365 getting a new trader has tightened the opening price considerably, unfortunately). There are McGregor/Mayweather-eqsue differences pretty regularly where the market's off 15-20% from where I make it. Usually i try and take a step back and ask myself to try and figure out what I don't know. What are unknown variables, what might I be missing, etc. It's also a sport where there's a massive amount of uncertainty (even more than a pre-seasonless NFL), so I will usually temper my number, giving credit to the line and the fact that the linemaker (and other good bettors) are seeing a largely-subjective market differently than I am. Occasionally i just whiff badly. Most times I'm on the right side, but not by as much as I thought, and what I project to be an easy win turns into a draw (sometimes with a last-second knockdown ://///) or a win I have to sweat. Just constantly tell yourself that you're a moron at worst, half-a-moron at best. Works for me.

I'm the wrong person to ask.

Ew gross.

ESPN just signed deals with Draftkings and Caesars so yeah should be fun.

Why? What if the number is good for all four of them?