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Good Posting Judge

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Everything posted by Good Posting Judge

  1. I know it's been beaten to death in here, but the gambling advice on his show is uniformly terrible and should not be followed by anyone. This is no different than "the Daily Wager," "Fox Bet Live," Cowherd, etc.
  2. Couple things I like comin' up: Florian Marku over Charlton -125 (playable up to -175 imo) Jamel Herring over Frampton +120/+110 (playable to -150, I think? I'm just way off the market on this one. Feel like it'll correct back towards me as we get closer tho) Had some intel about a fight this weekend, but the whole situation's a little too fuzzy and the books weren't cooperative. Alas. Everyone good?
  3. He's going to (edit: drunkenly) hydroplane a Tesla into a tree and kill his girlfriend in a few years, isn't he?
  4. Dave Mason, the head guy at BetOnline, said it was their biggest decision ever. By quite a bit. Some people were betting without realizing the rules had changed. other people followed them off the cliff. There was a loud argument on gambling twitter about who predicted election outcomes better, the modelers like Nate and Elliott Morris or the betting markets. I would say that debate's been pretty firmly decided.
  5. Actually in a situation like this, it wouldn't surprise me. The liability books were carrying on Trump was massive. It's not true for random Thursday MAC games, but for something like this, I can def see it.
  6. Playing against the market a bit, but I like Saucedo +170 in the co-main event. Should be a very close, high-volume fight.
  7. Took him KO/UD -175. I like that more than KO, UD, or straight up, just because I think most Teofimo win-outcomes end up with him getting a KO, I don't see many Teo decisions/draws/close Lomachenko decisions. And if they're fighting close rounds the whole way through, again, I don't see Lomachenko seeing the end. But more often than not I think Loma controls this fight, also would not rule out a Lomachenko stoppage. -400 I'm pretty ambivalent on. If that were my only option I'd probably lay off, so I can't recommend it in a parlay.
  8. Yeah I'm taking whatever they say and assuming he's like two levels below that.
  9. I've been seriously handicapping boxing this year, and I run into the same thing, although boxing is by no means as tough to beat as the NFL so there are some pretty bad prices (Bet365 getting a new trader has tightened the opening price considerably, unfortunately). There are McGregor/Mayweather-eqsue differences pretty regularly where the market's off 15-20% from where I make it. Usually i try and take a step back and ask myself to try and figure out what I don't know. What are unknown variables, what might I be missing, etc. It's also a sport where there's a massive amount of uncertainty (even more than a pre-seasonless NFL), so I will usually temper my number, giving credit to the line and the fact that the linemaker (and other good bettors) are seeing a largely-subjective market differently than I am. Occasionally i just whiff badly. Most times I'm on the right side, but not by as much as I thought, and what I project to be an easy win turns into a draw (sometimes with a last-second knockdown ://///) or a win I have to sweat. Just constantly tell yourself that you're a moron at worst, half-a-moron at best. Works for me.
  10. If all the lines have moved and are generally in the same spot, i dunno about that. By Saturday a lot of big groups have weighed in, so the line's pretty sharp. It may get jiggled a bit on Sunday with injury news or whomever crushed the Rams today and bet them down to a pk. But if you can find a +3.5 somewhere at a square book like MyBookie or Bovada when Pinny and Cris have 3 flat, that's a solid bet in the long-run. One of the biggest gamblers in the US has built a pretty big syndicate doing just this for years and years, over and over and over.
  11. Got u fam: https://plusevanalytics.wordpress.com/2020/06/18/ev-in-the-supercontest/
  12. Everyone guards their own sauce pretty closely. Football is especially valuable because even though a double-digit ROI probably isn't realistic long-term, limits are crazy high and your outs are practically limitless. I would say if you're NFL. find someone who is independent and specializes in CFB. Or find someone who models baseball or hoops and share ideas w them, even though they're different sports. Most syndicates are an originator or a group of originators who specialize in different sports, and then someone who gathers PPH accounts to bet on/burn through. I (try) to beat MLB openers, for a few years now (up big this year, basically even the last two), and it's like level 1. Actually, level 1 is props/small sports, level 2 is openers. Level 3 is beating un-circled games once the limits are raised. If you're maxing openers, you're nowhere close in terms of volume to what the biggest guys are doing. And because a lot of price discovery has happened, it's a lot tougher.
  13. 1) there are real, legit pro gamblers/+ev semi-pro gamblers on Twitter. they're not TOO hard to find, but they also aren't putting 30 emojis and 3 gifs after every 5u play. 2) if you haven't built a mathematical model to beat NFL sides/totals, you're pretty much dead in the water long-term. It's too big of a market, the opening line's too good already, and then the people that move that line are even better still. The days of just having a good eye and a reasonably good understanding of statistics and being able to eyeball a line are long-gone.
  14. I think the Warriors should take Toppin. Wiseman's going to really cramp their spacing if you play him together with Green, and he's going to be targeted on PNR incessantly. Toppin can shoot, run PNR, and score inside on smaller defenders. Edwards leaves them pretty small, Ball's shooting has a ways to go and his dad's a pain in the ###, and probably needs the ball in his hands more. Toppin makes a lot of sense. Or maybe the Israeli cat, but I don't know much about him.
  15. Ruh roh: https://twitter.com/asoukuptx/status/1292894731878506497?s=20
  16. He was psychologically a wreck. Desiree Washington or no, there was really no way to get around the extreme poverty he faced, followed quickly by Cus basically turning him into a Terminator. It worked great for him being in the ring, but it didn't solve what a mess his life had been until that point. His autobiography is really great, he goes into all of it in great detail. Anyway, according to Andy Taylor who runs CSAC (they sanctioned that farcical 7-second women's bout last night, btw), it's an exhibition: no judges, ref is going to stop it quickly if anything bad happens, and they're gonna have 12 oz gloves instead of 10. I took Jones to win, but I don't even know if anyone's going to win. What's the 2020 equivalent of a newspaper decision?
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