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Everything posted by ericttspikes

  1. South Africa reports 6,141 new cases today, 1,000 less than yesterday and continuing its rapid descent. I'm still not understanding what the WHO is talking about when it comes out today and says: ‘Fueling Africa’s second wave’ The World Health Organization warned Thursday that more contagious variants of Covid-19 are “fueling Africa’s second wave” and the variant first identified in South Africa “is predominant and powering record case numbers in South Africa and the sub-region.” According to the WHO, the B.1.351 strain has now been identified in in Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, the French Indian Ocean region of Mayotte, Zambia and 24 other non-African nations. As of Monday, Coronavirus infections in the region have grown by 50% since Dec. 29 when compared with the previous four weeks, the WHO said. Covid-19 deaths have also been on the rise, roughly doubling over that same period. The numbers I see don't seem to align with that at all. Like many other countries, Africa looks to have experienced a second wave in late Nov/early Dec. As of today South Africa: trending way down. Botswana: trending down. Ghana: small spike, flat but maybe trending up?, Kenya: trending way down. Mayotte: seems like a spike, uneven reporting but looks flat to down, Zambia: looks like it got a later start, the midst of a second wave, 7 day average down to flat, could reverse up? If I were in Africa looking at the US cases, I think I'd be more worried of importing the US variant. I don't doubt the fear from the CDC and the WHO about the South African variant, I'm just not seeing it impacting Africa any worse than Europe or the US. Maybe they have different numbers?
  2. Keep an eye on Israel for the answer to this. Pfizer gave them a deal on the vaccine in return for data. As of a week ago, in a small study, there was optimism that it would reduce spread. Peter Weber January 20, 2021 The COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech is 95 percent effective at protecting against infection, large human trials found, but there is no conclusive evidence yet that the vaccines prevent transmission of the new coronavirus. "Early findings from Oxford/AstraZeneca revealed its vaccine could have some effect on transmitting the virus, while similar results have also been reported by Pfizer/BioNTech," Reuters reports. But "scientists do not yet know whether COVID-19 vaccinations will reduce transmission because this was not tested in the trials." A new study from Israel's Sheba Medical Center in Tel Hashomer suggested that the Pfizer vaccine does, in fact, reduce transmission. The small study of 102 medical workers found that after the second dose of the vaccine, 100 of the subjects had significantly higher levels of antibodies than even people who recovered from severe COVID-19 infections, The Jerusalem Post reports. "The results of the survey are in line with Pfizer's experiment and even better than expected," said Prof. Gili Regev-Yochay, director of Sheba's Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit. "I expect that the survey results of the other employees participating will be similar. There is certainly reason for optimism." It isn't clear how long immunity will last, and the results are preliminary, but Regev-Yochay said it appears to her that fully vaccinate people won't shed the virus, meaning they won't pass it on to others. https://news.yahoo.com/israeli-study-suggests-pfizer-covid-143104894.html
  3. Pfizer and BioNtech are working on a lyophilized, or powdered version, of the vaccine that will just need to be reconstituted in liquid to eliminate temp requirements. They expect to accomplish that this year.
  4. I've been in PFE for years. Can't say I can recommend it if you're looking for share appreciation. Basically has been 36 for years. Just a dividend play in the portfolio I have it in, and not a great one at that. Their upcoming earnings will shed some light on expected rev and guidance. They just spun off all their lagging legacy brands that were an anchor, so maybe that will lead to some share appreciation, but not sure. If they can't improve share price, management really has to change. I also have a large position of BNTX. Love the company, huge believer in the mRNA platform. I think Ugur Sahin and Ozlem Tureci are geniuses, but not sure about the stock. Tons of potential in oncology and they will have a large payday coming with revenue rolling in over the next few years from Comirnaty (the Covid vax) that will help fund their oncology trials. I feel it's massively undervalued based on potential and future rev, but the market doesn't think so to this point. The fact that it's an ADR might also suppress its value compared to US based companies like Moderna, but not really sure. I keep adding to my BNTX holdings as a believer in the founders, with the hope that their science wins out. BNTX is also kind of like a research lab more than a company. They really don't do PRs or cater to the investment community. I think this doesn't help their share price either. I don't own Moderna. My personal feeling is that they are more flashy and like to pump their stock. They play the game, and have government connections. It has served their stock well. Like BNTX, they validated the mRNA platform and the sky is the limit IMO. I think they are overvalued, but who knows. They seem to have a decent pipeline too. Edited to add that most people refer to the BioNTech vaccine as the Pfizer vaccine, which doesn't help the BNTX stock. BioNTech partnered with Pfizer to produce their vaccine in a 50/50 split for US and Europe. BioNTech has a similiar deal with Fosun pharma to serve China. As far as I know, Moderna goes it alone and captures a larger rev %, yet may not be able to produce the same quantity. That remains to be seen.
  5. Thanks. It seems that the panic press about the South African strain started when Cape Town experienced a second wave in late December, but they seemed to reach their peak a few days later and has gone down significantly since then. 21,000 a day to 7,000 a day, well below their Summer peak. Yet Fauci today is very concerned about it. I guess maybe there are some weird unknown biological things in play, but I'd still expect the arrow on case counts in South Africa to be pointing up based on the panic press about it in the last few weeks. Just seems that rational science based guys like Fauci are pulling alarm bells without really knowing the answers, which in a way undermines the current vaccine effort by spreading fear.
  6. The question I have about the South African variant is why isn't South Africa being decimated like the US is? In fact, South African cases are coming down rapidly. Weird.
  7. Results of an early lab study out today seems positive, but should know more in two weeks. Either way, the mRNA platform is well suited to quickly adapt if necessary. Novavax is a protien subunit vaccine, and I don't really know much about it or how adaptable that is. I do know that they don't require deep freezing but take longer to make. My guess is that Novavax will help fill the need of lower income countries, and maybe rural US, and a majority of the US supply will stick with mRNA for efficacy and adaptability. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-pfizer-vaccine-idUSKBN29W31M https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-works-against-mutations-found-in-u-k-south-africa-variants-lab-study-finds-11611802559
  8. I know some here got into the LOAK>DNMR trade a while ago, but I completely missed the boat on that SPAC. I have been watching for a while and started a position in DNMR on the dip this morning @ 46. Probably still overpaid, but wanted an ESG play and I'm fascinated by the concept and need for biopolymer plastics. Also, I always cringe watching It's A Wonderful Life when George Bailey didn't invest with Sam Wainwright...had to take a swing here.
  9. Mudhoney Tshirt, 11 month mullet and no pants.
  10. I still think this latest craziness is just a pump and dump from the usual masters of the universe, deep pocket guys. Musk and Palihapitiya are just some more vocal and transparent ones who piled in, but others in their tax bracket are mostly behind it IMO. The Reddit users think they are moving markets and sticking it to the man is a nice story and provides some cover. WSB people might of hatched the idea, and started the momentum, but no way an army of message board dudes, mostly buying small lots of GME @ $200+ are the sole pumpers, but will be the bag holders.
  11. Isn't that a smart move for the company? I'm not sure why GameStop hasn't done something similar. The best product Elon Musk ever made wasn't his cars, it was his stock. Tesla made bank on issuing stock.
  12. they only made $111 B in 3 months, meh. Gotta get some BK co's.
  13. It's so bad that Axe Capital just went under.
  14. In for 1000 shares of Blockbuster Video
  15. My daughter was also recently accepted to Purdue School of Engineering. MIT is her #1, but also realizes it is the longest of long shots, but she did get a few recommendation letters from some influential MIT alumni that can't hurt. We'll see. So, I'm thinking it will be Purdue for her, which is great as she loves the campus and is close to home; both important to her. I was curious about the $10k scholarship you received. Did that just come with the acceptance letter? We were on a webinar with Purdue admissions last night and they made is sound like scholarships weren't being offered until later in February/March.
  16. My neighbor runs his own boutique investment business after years at Goldman. He's convinced that WSB, Robinhooders and meme traders are just being used by deep pocket guys. Makes some sense. I'm sure Robinhood traders and WSB message board people "believe" they have this amazing power over the market. My neighbor doubts the true leverage of these investors and their ability to move markets like they think they are. They are portrayed as angry, WFH millennials with stimulus checks out to stick it to the man, and he says there is no way they alone are moving the markets. That the "man" is behind most of the money and are just an unwitting front. Thought that was interesting, and as always, the little guy will get crushed.
  17. In week after 2nd Pfizer vaccine shot, only 20 of 128,000 Israelis get COVID Figure represents 0.015 percent of people, indicating vaccine is hitting 95% efficiency rate predicted by clinical trials; top immunologist hails ‘exciting results’ https://www.timesofisrael.com/week-after-2nd-pfizer-vaccine-shot-only-20-of-128000-israelis-get-covid/
  18. Good to go on offense finally. I'm wondering how much of the declining numbers can be contributed to seasonality? Guess it seems kind of early to attribute declines solely to seasonality. Still good to see, and hope it continues.
  19. Covid cases PLUNGE and deaths down as UK confirms 6.6million receive first vaccine dose THE UK has reported 22,195 coronavirus cases in the past 24-hours, a huge dip on figures in recent weeks. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1388788/covid-news-cases-down-deaths-latest-vaccine-figures-statistics-uk-update
  20. You’re right. That is the deal with all SPACS. All guesses at this point. Heard a $15b number, which would be a bit over $30B at this point. Lucid will be going public, whether through CCIV or not, and I expect it’s market cap to be detached from reality. What that means is a guess, but don’t see any reason why it wouldn’t be similar to NIO on FOMO alone.
  21. I liked this series. Thought it should've been better, but liked it enough. Season 3 was kind of a slog for me. I had a hard time figuring out the different timelines.
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