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SSOG

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Posts posted by SSOG

  1. Ryan Mathews, at what point do you get out?I really believe in the talent but their comes a point when it's just not happening for one reason or another.

    Too soon, especially in an RB crop this weak. Norv is living on borrowed time. Who knows what the next coaching staff will do. More importantly, who would you get? How many RBs in the league possess both the youth and talent to match him.
  2. Interesting thought from another thread:ADP vs. Megatron in a non-PPR league. Who do you got? I am taking ADP, right now. Standard formats can't be measured fairly in blanket VBD - RBs have to get a bump based on rarity of consistant producers. I am comfortable in counting on 3 more years from ADP, and at this rate, even if Calvin puts up top 5 numbers ever year, it would take him twice as long to catch up in the VBD department; your return on investment is 4+ years away, in the way of a 31-32 YO WR.

    Since I think I might be the guy who inspired the comparison, I'll repost my thoughts over here. I'm in a 10-team dyno, and the Calvin owner has been pestering me trying to get me to trade him my ADP, Britt, and a 2013 first (mid-to-late) for Calvin. I agree with him that, in a vacuum, this represents fair value for Calvin. In fact, in a vacuum, I'd even prefer Calvin. My team does not exist in a vacuum, though. I'm loaded at receiver (Harvin and Cobb, who are the top two receivers in this format, plus Demaryius, Fitzgerald, Austin, and Britt), and while I have depth at RB (Charles is my rb3), it's not as much. Obviously, my team is a major contender (also have Brees, Rice, and Gronk), and there's no way I'd diminish my chances of winning a title right now even if it meant getting a solid long-term upgrade. Youth is awesome, but flags never age.
  3. For those discounting Ryan's high rate of success this season as an outlier of sorts...isn't this exactly what was expected of him once he was given an offense that was more fitted to his strengths? With the weapons he has, and being only 27, it's really tough not to slide him up into the top 5 dynasty QBs - even if you want to throw Luck, Cam, Brees and RG3 ahead of him - who else?

    Did you intentionally omit Rodgers? If you want to put Luck, Newton, RGIII, and Brees ahead of Ryan, then he isn't top 5, because he's definitely behind Rodgers.
    :lol: - no, actually I was just posting off the top of my head and in a hurry. I knew I would leave someone out. Yes, definately Rodgers as well. So top 6 - not just top 5.
    As I mentioned, Stafford has to be in the mix, too. Say what you want, but he's a 24 year old #1 overall pick with a 5000 yard season under his belt who will be throwing to arguably the best receiver in the league for the better part of the next decade. He very much belongs in the mix. I think those 7 guys, in one order or another, have to be the clear-cut, consensus top 7 dynasty QBs, though. Maybe there's one of those guys you hate, or one of the other guys you love, but if your top 7 doesn't contain at least 6 of those names, you're probably doing it wrong.
  4. For those discounting Ryan's high rate of success this season as an outlier of sorts...isn't this exactly what was expected of him once he was given an offense that was more fitted to his strengths? With the weapons he has, and being only 27, it's really tough not to slide him up into the top 5 dynasty QBs - even if you want to throw Luck, Cam, Brees and RG3 ahead of him - who else? He and Brees are less than 100 passing yards apart, and thats with Atlanta having lead many of their games early and by a significant margin.

    The Falcon's have changed the offense - and this may very well be simply a sign of things to come in the next few years.

    Thoughts?

    There's a young guy in Green Bay I kind of like, and think will turn out pretty good.

    I largely agree, though. You've got Rodgers, Brees, Griffin, Luck, Newton, Stafford, and Ryan. These are your top 7 dynasty QBs, in one order or another. I can understand some people are really high on someone else (maybe Dalton, Tannehill, or Flacco), while others might be really low on one of those guys (Newton, Stafford, Brees), but if you don't have at least 6 of those names in your top 7, you're probably doing it wrong.

  5. I kind of want to gauge the value of the lower 30 year old struggling QB for Dynasty.RomoVickEliRiversBig BenThey all seem to be in that low end starter / high end backup range right now. Draft pick wise, what would you accept for one of them and are any of them really looking like good buy lows right now?

    Ben's struggling? On pace for 4400 yards and 30 TDs.
    Are you buying him for a top 10 price?
    I would, all day long. Not a top 5 guy by any stretch, but after the uberstuds (Rodgers, Brees) and the young guns (Griffin, Luck, Newton, Stafford, Ryan) are off the board, who are you going with? Brady and Manning are great, but 5+ years older. Freeman? Tannehill? Flacco? Dalton? I trust Ben in my starting lineup much more than any of them over the next 3-5 years.
  6. If people are bailing on Stewart then this might be the best time to buy in his career. He is one of the most talented RBs in the league. Beating a dead horse at this point, but really wouldn't advocate selling this guy low right now. Tons of downside.

    Exactly. People are letting the past influence their judgment of the future. Imagine a hypothetical scenario: let's say that there's a super-talented RB who plays for an eccentric GM. Let's say the GM decides before every season he will flip a coin, and if it comes up heads, he will feature that RB for the rest of his career. Lots of people would be high on him his first season. If the first coin flip came up tails, lots of people would be high on him his second season. If the flip came up tails again, lots of people would be high on him his third season. Sure, at that point, some people would be saying "everyone overrated him, they thought he'd be a starter by now, I'm getting rid of him". Those people would be making a mistake- they'd be confusing past results with future prospects. Jonathan Stewart has faced a lot of coin flips so far in his career. They've all come up tails. That's unfortunate, but it does not mean his supporters were wrong for liking him before those coin flips, and it does not mean all future coin flips will continue to come up tails.
  7. I am guessing that he wants you to include the receving yardage and receiving TDs.

    Or, as they're otherwise known, "yards and touchdowns".Edit: I don't get what people see in Darren Sproles. Did you know that in his year and a half in New Orleans, he only has 720 yards and 2 TDs?
  8. We all get bad offers from time to time. Most aren't worthy of this thread... How about this one?Team A will giveMcFadden, Darren OAK RBGibson, Brandon STL WRJones, James GBP WRYear 2013 Round 2 Draft PickYear 2013 Round 2 Draft PickTo My Team forMathews, Ryan SDC RBBryant, Dez DAL WRJohnson, Steve BUF WRYear 2013 Round 1 Draft Pick

    I had to read it twice to figure out which side was the unbalanced side, which suggests it's not really "worst trade offer" material. I could easily see someone who believed that McFadden was a stud and Mathews would never be healthy who would prefer the McFadden side on that one.
  9. So, who to follow for good dynasty discussion on Twitter?

    SSOG
    I agree, and I have been following him. He doesn't really Tweet much, though. I follow FnL, too. Before yesterday they were about the only dynasty guys I followed. Now I'm following the DLF guys. Who else is out there?
    I do need to tweet more. The problem is that I don't really have a very twitter-friendly thought process. Too long, not very spontaneous. You'll notice around here that I'm much more likely to respond to other people's conversation trains than I am to start some of my own (and the ones I do start are rarely concise). With that said, I have it set up to get alerts whenever I get tweeted, and I try to respond very quickly, so any time anyone wants to start a dialogue, Twitter is a good way to reach me.
  10. just looked at your rankings SSOG ... do you still rank them Titus Young, Alshon Jeffrey, Ryan Broyles in that order?

    Those aren't his rankings. Can't remember the guy's name, but I know their not SSOG's.
    Jason Kirsner. He has an account here, but doesn't post much. Smart guy, though- really solid rankings. I'd rank them Jeffrey, Broyles, then Young. Although I'm not super-enthusiastic about any of them.
  11. Whats the #1 waiver position worth in a dynasty league? I don't particularly want it as I've found in the 1.5 seasons I've been involved in this league that there has been only 1 player worth using it on (and I had the #2 spot at the time) and it has inhibited me from making speculative picks between our off-season draft and the beginning of the season to fill out my roster.Does it matter if the person who wants it is in a rebuilding mode as opposed to "win now" mode?

    Depends on the time of the year and the depth of the league. In the first 3-4 weeks, #1 priority is worth as much as an early 2nd, IMO. After that, it's probably on par with a 3rd.
  12. I'd be interested in looking at some of the rosters of those that contribute heavily to this thread and seeing some commentary from the owners about how they built the rosters and their outlook moving forward. And discussion about that... maybe like a version of the in season dynasty trades thread.And I'd love to get some comments on my roster from the savvy dynasty posters here. But I know that is frowned upon. I avoid the AC forum, and I assume there isn't much dynasty activity there, especially not quality activity.Anyone else interested in this? If so, how best to go about it?

    I would be...but I'm already in several leagues with a few regular posters in this thread ;)
    It can be a blessing and a curse. When I was doing rankings weekly, I actually sent everyone in my league the link. Sometimes, it made it hard to buy a player I loved at his market value. Other times, people were approaching me with deals that I never would have thought to offer just because they saw something they disagreed with in my rankings. Anyway, I posted my team in my "main" dynasty. It's my first league, and the one that brought me into this thread in the first place. I've done others since, but that's still the sentimental favorite, the one I want to win if I can only win one. It's also the one where I developed my philosophy, and the one where I have been most successful in executing it.
  13. For me, Thomas is a top 10 pick in PPR dynasty startups. I think that will become the consensus as the season rolls on and he continues filling the box scores and highlight reels every week.

    If Thomas continues his pace and finishes with 1500+ yards, I agree. I just don't think he will.
  14. It might have been mentioned a few times in passing, but right now, I feel that RBs are pretty bad, not just for 2013 NFL draft, but dynasty as a whole. So many guys suck/are underperforming (CJ?K, DMC, Mathews, Charles), hurt (Murray, MJD), or aren't great PPR options (Ridley, Morris). Even Shady is underperforming relative to expectations, and Foster is currently RB1, supported by a huge number of carries. I can't really make sense of RB right now.

    I forget if it was this thread or another, but I was talking about that earlier. Back in 2009, something like 12 of the top 30 RBs were 24 or older ("young"), and another 8 or so were 25-26 ("middle aged"). This year, 5 RBs are young and 10 are middle aged. In 2009, the top four fantasy backs (Rice, Peterson, Johnson, Jones-Drew) were all 24 or younger. This season, you've got Richardson, Ridley, Martin, Morris, and Murray, and everyone else worth owning is already at the peak or on the downside. And next year's draft class at RB doesn't offer a whole lot of hope. Just a really, really weak time for dynasty RBs. On the other hand, it's a great time for dynasty WRs.
    So what's the play on RBs? I feel I have a pretty loaded WR corps (Green, Julio, Harvin, Cobb, D Moore, Brown, Roberts), but thin at RB (Forte, Martin, SJax, DRich, Rodgers, Vereen). I've targeted the young RBs (McCoy, TRich, Mathews) but were told they weren't for sale or the asking price was too high IMO (Harvin, Martin and 2 high 1sts for TRich). So is the play to stick with the WRs and do one's best with RBs or overpay given the dearth in the draft?
    The scarcity does inflate the value of the real top tier guys (Rice, Richardson, McCoy), but it also means that more teams are going to be doing without. If you can't get one of the top guys, then don't force things and overpay, just get good talents at other positions. These things ebb and flow over time. If an oversupply of talented young WRs leads to them being undervalued, then buy. If an under supply of talented young RBs leads to them being overvalued, sit out the feeding frenzy.
  15. I think the main issue is I see the tier difference after Julio (and realize you disagree there too). I would not entertain any trade of giving up Julio, Green, Harvin or of course Calvin for Cruz. Favoring elite talent over elite near term utilization.I would give up Fitz, Nicks, or Thomas for Cruz in the right scenario even though I might be slightly higher on those players long term.

    I agree with all of this. We talk about top 5 and top 10 because we have five fingers, but the reality is that we should be talking about the top 4. Calvin, Green, Julio, and Harvin are the class of dynasty right now. In the second group, you've got Cruz, Bay Bay, Nicks, Fitz, Marshall, and Nelson. I think the first four names are relatively interchangeable, and I think the second six are relatively interchangeable (although I think Cruz is the class of the group), but I think the groups are pretty firm.
  16. I don't have Bay Bay in my top 5 (Calvin, Green, Harvin, Julio, and Cruz, in one order or another), but agree that he simply has to be top 10 at this point. I also think that we owe McDaniels a bit of a retroactive apology: Demaryius over Dez was absolutely, positively, 100% the right move. Dez has turned out to be exactly the talented headcase everyone thought he'd be, but I imagine most franchises would far prefer the low-maintenance talent of Demaryius.

    Agree with this tbh. SSOG, where do you have Nicks currently? Seems like only 18 months ago he was held in the same regard as guys like DT and Harvin are now.
    Still top10, only a few slots below his peak ranking. Not a whole lot has changed. Anyone burying him, IMO, is guilty of short-term thinking.
  17. I don't have Bay Bay in my top 5 (Calvin, Green, Harvin, Julio, and Cruz, in one order or another), but agree that he simply has to be top 10 at this point. I also think that we owe McDaniels a bit of a retroactive apology: Demaryius over Dez was absolutely, positively, 100% the right move. Dez has turned out to be exactly the talented headcase everyone thought he'd be, but I imagine most franchises would far prefer the low-maintenance talent of Demaryius.

  18. It might have been mentioned a few times in passing, but right now, I feel that RBs are pretty bad, not just for 2013 NFL draft, but dynasty as a whole. So many guys suck/are underperforming (CJ?K, DMC, Mathews, Charles), hurt (Murray, MJD), or aren't great PPR options (Ridley, Morris). Even Shady is underperforming relative to expectations, and Foster is currently RB1, supported by a huge number of carries. I can't really make sense of RB right now.

    I forget if it was this thread or another, but I was talking about that earlier. Back in 2009, something like 12 of the top 30 RBs were 24 or older ("young"), and another 8 or so were 25-26 ("middle aged"). This year, 5 RBs are young and 10 are middle aged. In 2009, the top four fantasy backs (Rice, Peterson, Johnson, Jones-Drew) were all 24 or younger. This season, you've got Richardson, Ridley, Martin, Morris, and Murray, and everyone else worth owning is already at the peak or on the downside. And next year's draft class at RB doesn't offer a whole lot of hope. Just a really, really weak time for dynasty RBs. On the other hand, it's a great time for dynasty WRs.
  19. I know this might be slightly off topic, but:Am I panicking if I am considering trading my 2013 draft picks for 2014? This class reminds me a bit of the 2011 class, if you take out Julio and Green. I know players will emerge - Doug Martin wasn't a 1st round pick at this time last year, and that always happens. But I don't see any top end talent, outside of Geno Smith. There is depth at the WR spot, but aside from maybe Hunter, I don't see elite talent there, either.

    Nope. I've got a likely top4 2013 first, and I'm actively shopping it straight up for a 2014 first from some of the weaker teams. Haven't heard back from anyone yet.
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