12th pick with 2 flex on offense (1 Viewer)

[Darcimer]

There are several great discussions about the 12th (last) draft spot, like this one 12 slot,

but the premises are generally based on 12 team redraft and do not account for flex spots, or 6pt passing TDs.

After reading the great discussions, I am convinced that the last team in the first round should go RB/WR, thus leaving alot of flexibility to start sniping value plays in the next 5-6 rounds. I do not intend for this post to rehash the 12th spot strategy, but rather, how does having 2 flex spots in your starting line-up alter the strategy?

For discussion's sake, assume 1QB(6pts per TD), 1RB(1/2 ppr),1 WR ( ppr), 1 TE(ppr), and "2" Flex.

I can't possibly see any way the bottom of the draft can go RB/RB and leave WR's with ppr's like CJ/Holt/SS/TO even Fitz for the same guys that already have LJ, Tomlinson and Alexander. How do you think the two flex players will change the strategy?

Does this increase the value of the WR/WR option? I am still convinced that going Caddie/Steve Smith at 12/13 (although I am convinced that you can land Rudi or Westbrook there too) is the best route, because you can then have the options of going RB/WR again , or WR/WR or even RB/RB ( I see Dillon-Thomas Jones-Bush: Djax/Boldin/Driver/Wayne and, with the 6pt pssing TDs, maybe even get a gift here like Ward, Driver, Chambers, or Harrison, depending on how many QB's go early.) My point is that you're not pigeonholed into going in one direction. And I see alot of value possibly being here at WR in rounds 3/4.

Which means, I can be convinced that RB/RB is the better option, but I don't know how the flex alters VBD based drafting when you only need to start 1 RB.

Also, how does this variation alter when/where you take a QB? Let's face it, most performance leagues have Manning leading the entire league in scoring, with Brady and Hass right on his heals.

Thoughts?

Todd A.

 

[pigskinliquors]

I'm in one of these leagues, and simply use my point projections to choose WR's and RB's. Just choose the person (regardless of position, WR vs. RB) that you project to have the most points. In the last three years of this league, I have gone Rb, Rb, Rb, Wr, Wr. Not by methodological choice, it is just where the players with my highest projections fell.

 

[Z-Dog]

Agreed. If you are only required to start one WR and on RB, simply group all those players together as though they were one position, and select as VBD indicates.

 

[FGITLOTR]

I'm in the same position and have come to the conclusion that going RB/RB is your best bet IF you are happy with the second RB targeted. I will not just take a RB with the 13th pick for the sake of taking a RB in that spot-- I'm not taking McGahee, KJ, or Caddy, so if that's what's left, I'll most likely take Westy with #12 and a top WR, such as CJ, Holt, or Smith with #13. That said, I'm seriously considering Bush with #13, in the hope that he gets more touches than people think and Deuce is a shadow of his old self. By the way, there is no way Rudi is available at the end of the 1st in any kind of league

 

[pizzatyme]

My leagues at fantasybowl.com are like this.

I recommend you use the Draft Dominator to determine VBD. I have run several mock drafts.

Based on my projections, Peyton goes at 1.11 and Rudi is there @ 1.12. I then have KJ, Caddy, and Reggie as the next 3 RBs.

I choose Steve Smith @ 2.01.

This leaves the likes of Chris Brown, Ahman Green, and Fragile Fred at the top of the RB heap.

I also then take either TO or T. Holt @3.12, 4.01.

I like this as I get the premium WRs, I'm not sold on the production of this teir of RBs. I'd rather take RB with my next 3 picks and hope to land 1 solid #2 RB from this group.

This is just how I like to play it.

Keep in mind that the draft will not play out exactly like DD, so I can pick anyone that falls to me.

Usually, a top WR or 2 will go sooner than they should, which means greater value RBs falling to me there.

Good luck!

 

[Darcimer]

Agreed. If you are only required to start one WR and on RB, simply group all those players together as though they were one position, and select as VBD indicates.

OK, so with these "2 flex" systems, would you agree that the QB and TE become more valuable since the 1RB/1WR lineup requirement creates parity, since after the first RB/WR combo, they(WR's and RB's) are all equal? Or would you still subscribe to the old economics class foundation "scarcity of resources" theory? For example, nobody is going to dispute that Peyton is "projected" to clean house, possibly #1 point scorer in the NFL---fantasy-wise ( again assuming 6 pt tds) and on a pure FPTS basis, why wouldn't you grab him at 1.12? I realize most projections have Brady and Hass, even Bledsoe as tier 2 QB's, but the dropoff is huge, and in performance leagues it could as much as a 5-6 point differential, per game, from #1 to #2 Qbs. ( Again, I know projections are not an exact science. I have often noticed that winning the the draft is quite different from winning your league. If your projections suck, your team will suck, period.)I ask this because the guy who won the league last year drafted Gates and Gonzalez at 1.12/2.01(remember, ppr). He also got Larry J at 3.12 and Westbrook at 4.01--burning the Holmes owner, and then Brady late, who happened to have extraordinary value last year, as he was projected as QB8-ish. Now I don't have the courage to pull some crap like that, but was it just luck or simply an exercise in addition? Maybe the Guppy won?