14 Team Leagues (1 Viewer)

[JimboJim]

I know standard leagues are 12 teams, and that's what the talk of this board ususally centers around. However, for those of us who play in 14 team leagues and have been given the opportunity :X to draft in the 13th or 14th slot, I was wondering what strategies are being used, and/or what you might have already seen. Let's say that just for grins, the consensus "top 12" picks are the following:

LJ

SAlex

LT

Portis

Barber

Jackson

Jordan

Brown

Edge

Johnson

Caddy

Westbrook

Any thoughts where to go from here? Personally, the league I play in is a start 2RB, 2WR, 1TE and 1 WR/TE flex with a 0.5 ppr for all players.

If I had to predict the first two picks for the teams in the 13th and 14th positions, here's what I keep getting from each slot

13 - Willis McGahee: FBGs consensus has him as the #13 RB and I beleive that you have to take at least one RB in the first two rounds in a 14-team league. basically insert the top RB on your board at this spot.

14 - Back to back picks; like I said, one has to be a RB. Personal preference here, but I would probably take Kevin Jones. Parker should be solid too; I just can't see myself taking the risk on D. Davis without knowing about his knee.

15 - This is where it gets really tough. Personally, I do not touch Manning. Taking a/the top WR would really go a long way towards building a dynaimc team; especially in ppr and WR heavy leagues. However, waiting until picks 42 & 43 to acquire your second back could leave one looking at guys like Chris Brown, Dominic Rhodes... :X In the end, I don't think I could resist the temptatin and would go Steve Smith

16 - Ugly; all of the other top WRs have as many, if not more questions than Smith (Owens/Holt - new offense, Johnson - Palmer, Fitzgerald - run more...). The only picks here in my book would be either Domanick Davis, Willie Parker or Fitzgerald. Parker and McGahee would be a good backfiled; although a lot of risk in both RBs. Unless the news comes back better on Davis, I would take draft Fitz. Would not want to spend a second on a back that provide no vlaue this season and miss out on a top flight WR.

 

[ceo3west]

I know standard leagues are 12 teams, and that's what the talk of this board ususally centers around. However, for those of us who play in 14 team leagues and have been given the opportunity :X to draft in the 13th or 14th slot, I was wondering what strategies are being used, and/or what you might have already seen. Let's say that just for grins, the consensus "top 12" picks are the following:

LJ

SAlex

LT

Portis

Barber

Jackson

Jordan

Brown

Edge

Johnson

Caddy

Westbrook

Any thoughts where to go from here? Personally, the league I play in is a start 2RB, 2WR, 1TE and 1 WR/TE flex with a 0.5 ppr for all players.

If I had to predict the first two picks for the teams in the 13th and 14th positions, here's what I keep getting from each slot

13 - Willis McGahee: FBGs consensus has him as the #13 RB and I beleive that you have to take at least one RB in the first two rounds in a 14-team league. basically insert the top RB on your board at this spot.

14 - Back to back picks; like I said, one has to be a RB. Personal preference here, but I would probably take Kevin Jones. Parker should be solid too; I just can't see myself taking the risk on D. Davis without knowing about his knee.

15 - This is where it gets really tough. Personally, I do not touch Manning. Taking a/the top WR would really go a long way towards building a dynaimc team; especially in ppr and WR heavy leagues. However, waiting until picks 42 & 43 to acquire your second back could leave one looking at guys like Chris Brown, Dominic Rhodes... :X In the end, I don't think I could resist the temptatin and would go Steve Smith

16 - Ugly; all of the other top WRs have as many, if not more questions than Smith (Owens/Holt - new offense, Johnson - Palmer, Fitzgerald - run more...). The only picks here in my book would be either Domanick Davis, Willie Parker or Fitzgerald. Parker and McGahee would be a good backfiled; although a lot of risk in both RBs. Unless the news comes back better on Davis, I would take draft Fitz. Would not want to spend a second on a back that provide no vlaue this season and miss out on a top flight WR.

I am usually not one to reach, but in that situation you may want to go McGahee & C Taylor. I think he's got a good shot at top 10 if he stays healthy. If not, Owens is the pick with McGahee IMO. Sometimes you need to stray from popular rankings, especially in larger leagues.

 

[Premium Hands]

I know standard leagues are 12 teams, and that's what the talk of this board ususally centers around. However, for those of us who play in 14 team leagues and have been given the opportunity :X to draft in the 13th or 14th slot, I was wondering what strategies are being used, and/or what you might have already seen. Let's say that just for grins, the consensus "top 12" picks are the following:

LJ

SAlex

LT

Portis

Barber

Jackson

Jordan

Brown

Edge

Johnson

Caddy

Westbrook

Any thoughts where to go from here? Personally, the league I play in is a start 2RB, 2WR, 1TE and 1 WR/TE flex with a 0.5 ppr for all players.

If I had to predict the first two picks for the teams in the 13th and 14th positions, here's what I keep getting from each slot

13 - Willis McGahee: FBGs consensus has him as the #13 RB and I beleive that you have to take at least one RB in the first two rounds in a 14-team league. basically insert the top RB on your board at this spot.

14 - Back to back picks; like I said, one has to be a RB. Personal preference here, but I would probably take Kevin Jones. Parker should be solid too; I just can't see myself taking the risk on D. Davis without knowing about his knee.

15 - This is where it gets really tough. Personally, I do not touch Manning. Taking a/the top WR would really go a long way towards building a dynaimc team; especially in ppr and WR heavy leagues. However, waiting until picks 42 & 43 to acquire your second back could leave one looking at guys like Chris Brown, Dominic Rhodes... :X In the end, I don't think I could resist the temptatin and would go Steve Smith

16 - Ugly; all of the other top WRs have as many, if not more questions than Smith (Owens/Holt - new offense, Johnson - Palmer, Fitzgerald - run more...). The only picks here in my book would be either Domanick Davis, Willie Parker or Fitzgerald. Parker and McGahee would be a good backfiled; although a lot of risk in both RBs. Unless the news comes back better on Davis, I would take draft Fitz. Would not want to spend a second on a back that provide no vlaue this season and miss out on a top flight WR.

I am usually not one to reach, but in that situation you may want to go McGahee & C Taylor. I think he's got a good shot at top 10 if he stays healthy. If not, Owens is the pick with McGahee IMO. Sometimes you need to stray from popular rankings, especially in larger leagues.

My one league is a 14-teamer, PPR, 1RB/1WR/3 flex. I'm doing a mock as the 14th pick. The same 12 RBs mentioned above went as the top 12 picks, followed by Manning at 13. I went Holt/S Smith to see what I could get in rounds 3 and 4. It's a tough spot, especially if all the stud RBs go. If Edge, Caddy, or Westbrook slip, it's a gimme. But I would really be holding my nose if I had to take one of those other RBs. McGahee would be the one I could most live with. But in my league I can pretty much guarantee the first 12 picks won't be all RBs, so I'd probably be happy ending up with Westbrook/Edge and Chad/Smith/Fitz.Do you think going WR/WR is viable at 14/15 or is it suicidal? When it came back to me at 3.14 and 4.01 I took D. Foster/T. Jones. That was about where they are going ADP-wise (and Benson was already gone, and this mock took place after his injury), so I was pleased to end up with those 2. I'm sure DeAngelo won't come back to me at 7.14, so if I want to snag him, I'll have to spend 5.14 on him (I saw his ADP at 6.03 in 14-teamers). And at 6.01 I would go another WR/TE, such as Mason (hopefully), one of the TB WRs, Evans or Branch.

 

[Capt Hook]

There is a lot of depth later at good upside RB (Rhodes, Foster, Maroney, Benson etc), so I think you can go WR-WR without a problem, BUT

in the three or four 14 teamers I have done so far this year I have noticed that the best value at the end of the 13th and beginning of the 14th was at WR, so to take advantage of this you would have to have one RB in hand, which means EITHER

1) If you have a strong preference among KJones, FWP or C. Taylor, reaching slightly for one at 1-13, or

2) If you have a strong preference for one of the top WR, taking him at 1-13 and then taking whichever of the RB are left at 2-2

 

[TheWick]

I have the same dilemma in a very similar points and lineup setup league...except its 16 teams and I pick 15th. I have no idea what I'm gonna do. Might just go WR WR also and take a shot on several of the high upside RBs later....bout my only shot.

 

[sholditch]

I'm picking 12 of 14 on the 21st, and am seriously thinking about WR-WR. Here's why:

RB Tiers:

1: LJ, SA, LT

2: Portis, Edge, Barber

3: Rudi, Lamont, SJax, Brown, Caddy

4: Westy, Droughns, CT, KJ, Jamal, McGahee, JJ

5: Benson, Foster, Dillon, Deuce, TJones, Bush, Bell 'o' the week

6: Gore, Fred Taylor, Ahman Green, Chris Brown

7: DWill, Maroney, LenDale, Gado, MB3

so, at the 12 spot, assuming no one falls, I'm looking at best at a 4th tier RB, meanwhile, I have a great opportunity to have the best WR tandem in my league. Let's say I take Steve Smith at 12 and grab either CJ, Fitz, or Boldin on the way back, or Gates. But let's assume WR-WR. Chances are, this will spark at least a mild run on WRs in the second and third rounds.

tier 1: Steve Smith, Fitz, TO, Holt, CJ

tier 2: Boldin, Harrison

tier 3: R Moss

tier 4: SMoss, Plax, DJax, Chambers, Ward, Walker, Roy Williams

tier 5: Rod Smith, DMason, Wayne, T-Hous, Branch

so let's say I take SSmith @ 1.12, and the next four picks are Westy, Droughns, Fitz, and PManning. I take CJ @ 2.03. So 3 of the five tier 1 WRs are gone. I think it's safe to assume that by the time it comes back to me at 3.12, at least eight more receivers are gone (Holt, TO, Boldin, Harrison, RMoss, SMoss, Plax, Chambers) of 28 picks, so that leaves 13 picks of RBS and Gates, with a possible reach for Brady in the third. So possibly 11 more RBs off the board. We'll go by the tiers and say the next 11 are gone: KJ, Jamal, McGahee, Dillon, Deuce, Foster, CT, TJones, Bush, BOW, and Gore. So basically, by that point, I am screwed at RB. But chances are that one of Dillon, Deuce, or CBrown falls, and possibly Benson with the shoulder surgery and Jamal. So let's say, depending on who the flavor of the week is at that point, I take one of the Bells and Benson or TJones with my next two picks, and then grab whatever handcuff happens to fall at 5.12. It's pretty hairy but I think there are going to be a lot of RBs that fall that could easily produce well enough to make the WR-WR thing work. I need to do a mock and try this out.

 

[buckeye35]

I'm also picking 13 out of 14 in a redraft. We start 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1D/1K and by my 3rd round pick (#41), I can expect 25 RBs to be off the board.

I like McGahee in this spot. He went 4th in this league last year (FBG had his ADP as RB5). People are down on him because of the TD dropoff last year, but I think he'll bounce back.

According to the FBG ADP, I could probably land T.O. or Chad Johnson at #16. If I do that, every available RB is a reach in the 3rd round (Tatum Bell, DeShaun Foster, Joseph Addai, Deuce McAllister, Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones, Fred Taylor, Ahman Green). I'm looking at Addai with pick #41, depending on how camp shakes out -- he seems to have the most upside here and I'm not sold on Rhodes -- and then maybe Andre Johnson in the 4th. I'm just not crazy about the other WR options in this spot. Considering his ADP was about #30 last year, I think Johnson presents nice value here as he should improve with Moulds taking the pressure off. Fred Taylor is also interesting here (in place of Addai), but I don't know if I would take the risk.

But, then I started looking at going McGahee/Chester Taylor. In this scenario, I may still be able to get Addai and A. Johnson, so I'm pretty strong at RB now, but not so much at WR. Plus, given my league mates penchant for RBs, I might get lucky and have Roy Williams/Darrell Jackson/Santana Moss fall in my lap at #3. In either case, I'm pretty confident from here I could probably add depth with Lee Evans, Isaac Bruce and maybe Troy Williamson/Brandon Stokely later on. Bledsoe or Vick look like good value in the 6th, if either is still there, and I would look at Marion Barber III in the 7th for depth with a lot of upside. I like L.J. Smith to be Philly's #1 WR and I would take a shot on Kitna or Brunell as a backup to Bledsoe/Vick. Get a D and kicker and take a shot on a sleeper RB/WR or take McGahee's backup and I'm done.

So in my opinion, you're looking at possibly McGahee, C. Johnson, Addai & A. Johnson OR McGahee/C. Taylor, Addai (or a top WR that slips) & A. Johnson with the first 4 picks. I think you could go either way, depending on what you think you'll have left to pick from after that.

The key is knowing your league and what everyone's patterns are. FBGs' ADP was from July 25, so I'm sure this all will change with a new update. But based on that, this looks pretty good to me.

 

[a_f13nd]

I'm also picking 13 out of 14 in a redraft. We start 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1D/1K and by my 3rd round pick (#41), I can expect 25 RBs to be off the board.I like McGahee in this spot. He went 4th in this league last year (FBG had his ADP as RB5). People are down on him because of the TD dropoff last year, but I think he'll bounce back.According to the FBG ADP, I could probably land T.O. or Chad Johnson at #16. If I do that, every available RB is a reach in the 3rd round (Tatum Bell, DeShaun Foster, Joseph Addai, Deuce McAllister, Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones, Fred Taylor, Ahman Green). I'm looking at Addai with pick #41, depending on how camp shakes out -- he seems to have the most upside here and I'm not sold on Rhodes -- and then maybe Andre Johnson in the 4th. I'm just not crazy about the other WR options in this spot. Considering his ADP was about #30 last year, I think Johnson presents nice value here as he should improve with Moulds taking the pressure off. Fred Taylor is also interesting here (in place of Addai), but I don't know if I would take the risk.But, then I started looking at going McGahee/Chester Taylor. In this scenario, I may still be able to get Addai and A. Johnson, so I'm pretty strong at RB now, but not so much at WR. Plus, given my league mates penchant for RBs, I might get lucky and have Roy Williams/Darrell Jackson/Santana Moss fall in my lap at #3. In either case, I'm pretty confident from here I could probably add depth with Lee Evans, Isaac Bruce and maybe Troy Williamson/Brandon Stokely later on. Bledsoe or Vick look like good value in the 6th, if either is still there, and I would look at Marion Barber III in the 7th for depth with a lot of upside. I like L.J. Smith to be Philly's #1 WR and I would take a shot on Kitna or Brunell as a backup to Bledsoe/Vick. Get a D and kicker and take a shot on a sleeper RB/WR or take McGahee's backup and I'm done.So in my opinion, you're looking at possibly McGahee, C. Johnson, Addai & A. Johnson OR McGahee/C. Taylor, Addai (or a top WR that slips) & A. Johnson with the first 4 picks. I think you could go either way, depending on what you think you'll have left to pick from after that.The key is knowing your league and what everyone's patterns are. FBGs' ADP was from July 25, so I'm sure this all will change with a new update. But based on that, this looks pretty good to me.

Did you run the numbers through DD to see which of those two teams is better? I really like the McGahee/Taylor idea. Taylor may go uber late in some drafts, and people might raise their eyebrows, but I think he's just like Lamont Jordan. I think taking a receiver makes good sense in Start 3-Wr, but either way you're going to be suffering at RB2 at the expense of a surer thing at WR. If you can trust Taylor to produce, which I think you can, I'd do it.Also wondering why everyone keeps leaving Willie Parker out of their tiers. Isn't McGahee/Willie Parker or Chester Taylor/Willie Parker a pretty decent backfield. I think it's likely that at least one person will pull the trigger on a WR or Manning beforehand, so it might very well be Westbrook, Willie Parker or Westbrook, McGahee. That would be a hard backfield to beat...

 

[SFBayDuck]

Just pulled 14th pick in a 14 team, start 1QB, 2RB,2WR,TE,K,D,2 Flex league with 1 ppr for WR and TE. This makes going heavy on WR early even more appealing as we can start 4 and get that ppr.

I'm going to have to run a few mocks to see what RBs I can pick up in rounds 3-6 if I do that. The problem I always see with going WR early is that you end up reaching for RBs later on, often passing up some great value at WR.

 

[a_f13nd]

Just pulled 14th pick in a 14 team, start 1QB, 2RB,2WR,TE,K,D,2 Flex league with 1 ppr for WR and TE. This makes going heavy on WR early even more appealing as we can start 4 and get that ppr.I'm going to have to run a few mocks to see what RBs I can pick up in rounds 3-6 if I do that. The problem I always see with going WR early is that you end up reaching for RBs later on, often passing up some great value at WR.

All the mocks I've run seem to favor going either WR-WR or RB-RB. I think RB-RB is the safer choice, because you can scoop up occasional Third RB value, and get tons of WR value while the people who went WR-WR must scramble for a starter RB.If you'd be fine to take an RBBC as your 2nd back, you could probably even take WR-RB, but all indications are that this is the worst of both worlds.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Drafting 16 in a 16-team league.

 

[LordHusker]

I've been in a 14-team league for many years. It's the sports department fantasy league at a newspaper. In other words, it's a bunch of sportswriters and a new other non-sports journalists. I tend to get the 14th pick. It's almost a joke that I always draft out of the bottom. Last year, with the 12th pick, I grabbed Moss, then Owens on the way back up.

My season was very unpleasant.

Grab a RB. At least one RB. Otherwise, you will be a dead man. I say this after trying about every technique there is in a larger league.

 

[Kub]

I have the 13th pick in a 14 team league. We start 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 flex RB/WR/TE. 1 pt/10 yds for runners/receivers, 1 pt/50 yds passing & 6 pts for all TDs.

That said, I am looking very hard at Willis MacGahee, Reggie Bush, Willie Parker, and Peyton Manning with my first 2 picks. Normally, it is against my better judgement to go QB that early, but I don't love the other options. IMO, all of the top WRs have their drawbacks for my tastes/draft position. Westbrook is too much of a health risk.

However, unlike most people here, I don't think that drafting in this spot is a bad draw this year. Of course, I'd prefer to be in the top 3, followed by 4th/5th. After that, I like my chances where I am at. If someone goes "off the board" for Peyton and/or a WR(which I think is likely), that allows one of the more proven backs to fall to me. Worst case scenario, I wind up with 2 of the 4 players I mentioned above.

 

[JimboJim]

Just finished the draft I started this topis in ragards to...

Initial keep-three league draft. 14 teamer; start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1WR/TE , K, D... 0.5 PPR.

I know I jumped the gun on Maroney, but I figured having him and Bush would make for some attractive trade bait during the offseason.

All kept players are kept at a price of draft pick in the round they were last drafted,

Plummer (6.1)

Favre (12.1)

McGahee (1.14)

Bush (2.1)

Maroney (4.1)

De. Willaims (8.1)

Me. Moore (14.1)

Verron Hayes (18.1)

Walker (3.14)

Andre Johnson (5.14)

Mi. Clayton (7.14)

Jenkins (10.1)

Curtis (11.14)

Eric Parker (13.14)

H. Miller (9.14)

M. Lewis (17.14)

Stover (16.1)

Miami (15.14)

 

[SFBayDuck]

Assuming 12 RBs go before it gets to me at 14 (which is pretty typical in my league), I'll be looking at guys like McGahee, K. Jones, Parker, Bush, Droughns, and Westbrook. There are no safe bets here, although my thinking is McGahee probably is the safest with Parker next.

So what do you do at 2.01? If you go WR, and you can choose from among the top tier. But then you have to wait 27 picks before you get a shot at your RB2, and if things go well you'll be choosing from among guys like Dillon, Foster, Addai, Bell, Gore, and T. Jones, and worse case having to choose from among guys like Taylor, Benson, McAllister, or Green if round 3 stays heavy on the RBs. That's a big risk to take with one of those guys from the latter group as your RB2, and you pretty much have to take 2 of them right there in the hopes that one will actually be servicable.

The safe bet seems to be to take McGahee and Parker, but there just doesn't seem to be much upside there. If you think Martz is going to fire up the Detroit offense, you can look at K. Jones here as your RB2. Or you could swing for the fences and take Bush at 2.01. I know that's high, but with Westbrook's injury questions I'm worried about him, and as much as I like Droughns I just don't see much upside there.

My league allows 2 flex and WR/TE get 1 ppr so I'm leaning towards going RB/WR, but having to put one of those RBs likely to be available at 3.14 in my lineup every week is a bit scary.

 

[a_f13nd]

Assuming 12 RBs go before it gets to me at 14 (which is pretty typical in my league), I'll be looking at guys like McGahee, K. Jones, Parker, Bush, Droughns, and Westbrook. There are no safe bets here, although my thinking is McGahee probably is the safest with Parker next. So what do you do at 2.01? If you go WR, and you can choose from among the top tier. But then you have to wait 27 picks before you get a shot at your RB2, and if things go well you'll be choosing from among guys like Dillon, Foster, Addai, Bell, Gore, and T. Jones, and worse case having to choose from among guys like Taylor, Benson, McAllister, or Green if round 3 stays heavy on the RBs. That's a big risk to take with one of those guys from the latter group as your RB2, and you pretty much have to take 2 of them right there in the hopes that one will actually be servicable. The safe bet seems to be to take McGahee and Parker, but there just doesn't seem to be much upside there. If you think Martz is going to fire up the Detroit offense, you can look at K. Jones here as your RB2. Or you could swing for the fences and take Bush at 2.01. I know that's high, but with Westbrook's injury questions I'm worried about him, and as much as I like Droughns I just don't see much upside there.My league allows 2 flex and WR/TE get 1 ppr so I'm leaning towards going RB/WR, but having to put one of those RBs likely to be available at 3.14 in my lineup every week is a bit scary.

I've been approaching it exactly the same way. I'm thinking either McGahee/Bush or McGahee Parker, with a very slim chance of picking one of those RB and a top WR. I'm heavily leaning Bush, because he looks great. I think either Bush or Jones has decent upside, but I'd rather have Jones for the See I Told You So aspect. And hey if he doesn't pan out, you can always blame it on having a bad draft slot. What were you supposed to do with 14?

 

[SFBayDuck]

Assuming 12 RBs go before it gets to me at 14 (which is pretty typical in my league), I'll be looking at guys like McGahee, K. Jones, Parker, Bush, Droughns, and Westbrook. There are no safe bets here, although my thinking is McGahee probably is the safest with Parker next. So what do you do at 2.01? If you go WR, and you can choose from among the top tier. But then you have to wait 27 picks before you get a shot at your RB2, and if things go well you'll be choosing from among guys like Dillon, Foster, Addai, Bell, Gore, and T. Jones, and worse case having to choose from among guys like Taylor, Benson, McAllister, or Green if round 3 stays heavy on the RBs. That's a big risk to take with one of those guys from the latter group as your RB2, and you pretty much have to take 2 of them right there in the hopes that one will actually be servicable. The safe bet seems to be to take McGahee and Parker, but there just doesn't seem to be much upside there. If you think Martz is going to fire up the Detroit offense, you can look at K. Jones here as your RB2. Or you could swing for the fences and take Bush at 2.01. I know that's high, but with Westbrook's injury questions I'm worried about him, and as much as I like Droughns I just don't see much upside there.My league allows 2 flex and WR/TE get 1 ppr so I'm leaning towards going RB/WR, but having to put one of those RBs likely to be available at 3.14 in my lineup every week is a bit scary.

I've been approaching it exactly the same way. I'm thinking either McGahee/Bush or McGahee Parker, with a very slim chance of picking one of those RB and a top WR. I'm heavily leaning Bush, because he looks great. I think either Bush or Jones has decent upside, but I'd rather have Jones for the See I Told You So aspect. And hey if he doesn't pan out, you can always blame it on having a bad draft slot. What were you supposed to do with 14?

To add to the fun, when I run a mock in the DD with 12 RBs and a WR taken in the first 13, DVBD spits out Gates as the highest value at 1.14, and then the top WR available at 2.01. I just can't see going that route, although with our WR-friendly lineups and scoring I'm trying to figure out if I could make WR/WR work for me. Plugging say Holt and CJ into my lineup every week when we can start 4 WRs would sure be nice. But having to stick Gore and Addai, for example, into my RB lineup every week gives me nightmares.

 

[SFBayDuck]

bump to see if any others with the 14th slot have any thoughts.

 

[sholditch]

Just completed a draft in a 14-teamer at the 12 spot. Caddy fell as someone took Manning and Lordan went before him. Naturally I grabbed him without a second thought and went with CJ in the second.

But assuming it does go as you way, I truly beleive that WR-WR is the way to go. I was dead set on that strategy if Caddy did not fall, and I now have the option of reverting back to it since I have been offered SSmith for Caddy. Not biting though as I really wanted Caddy.

Assuming 3WR and 2RB, if everyone if off the board like you said, I really think that the value lies in something like a SSmith/Holt or Fitz/TO combo, whatever your heart decides. I'd much rather have two stud WRs than two mid-tier backs. McGahee is an option but has anythying changed in Buffalo? Nope. Expect something similar to last year's numbers, which do not warrant a 1st round pick.

Let's pretend Caddy hadn't fallen into my lap and I went Smith/CJ. I was able to get Jamal in the third, Bush in the fourth (not everyone is as high on him in redraft as they are around here), ended up taking Matt Jones in the fifth and Mike Bell in the sixth. I would have been just as happy with Jamal as my starter as anyone from the McGahee/FWP/Dunn/KJ/JJ tier. If I had gone WR-WR these would be my starters at RB and WR:

SSmith

CJ

Matt Jones

Lewis

Bush/Mike Bell

Having a knockout punch at WR and a very serviceable starting RB duo is better IMHO than slightly better RB group and a bunch of Mediocre WRs. BTW, my best choise at 3.12 over Jamal was Santana Moss. The bush pick at 4 was a computer lockup deal, but pretty good value nonetheless.

 

[a_f13nd]

Assuming 12 RBs go before it gets to me at 14 (which is pretty typical in my league), I'll be looking at guys like McGahee, K. Jones, Parker, Bush, Droughns, and Westbrook. There are no safe bets here, although my thinking is McGahee probably is the safest with Parker next. So what do you do at 2.01? If you go WR, and you can choose from among the top tier. But then you have to wait 27 picks before you get a shot at your RB2, and if things go well you'll be choosing from among guys like Dillon, Foster, Addai, Bell, Gore, and T. Jones, and worse case having to choose from among guys like Taylor, Benson, McAllister, or Green if round 3 stays heavy on the RBs. That's a big risk to take with one of those guys from the latter group as your RB2, and you pretty much have to take 2 of them right there in the hopes that one will actually be servicable. The safe bet seems to be to take McGahee and Parker, but there just doesn't seem to be much upside there. If you think Martz is going to fire up the Detroit offense, you can look at K. Jones here as your RB2. Or you could swing for the fences and take Bush at 2.01. I know that's high, but with Westbrook's injury questions I'm worried about him, and as much as I like Droughns I just don't see much upside there.My league allows 2 flex and WR/TE get 1 ppr so I'm leaning towards going RB/WR, but having to put one of those RBs likely to be available at 3.14 in my lineup every week is a bit scary.

I've been approaching it exactly the same way. I'm thinking either McGahee/Bush or McGahee Parker, with a very slim chance of picking one of those RB and a top WR. I'm heavily leaning Bush, because he looks great. I think either Bush or Jones has decent upside, but I'd rather have Jones for the See I Told You So aspect. And hey if he doesn't pan out, you can always blame it on having a bad draft slot. What were you supposed to do with 14?

To add to the fun, when I run a mock in the DD with 12 RBs and a WR taken in the first 13, DVBD spits out Gates as the highest value at 1.14, and then the top WR available at 2.01. I just can't see going that route, although with our WR-friendly lineups and scoring I'm trying to figure out if I could make WR/WR work for me. Plugging say Holt and CJ into my lineup every week when we can start 4 WRs would sure be nice. But having to stick Gore and Addai, for example, into my RB lineup every week gives me nightmares.

I had another thread about Gates and the DD. It makes sense that Gates and Manning will have the highest DVBD, but sometimes the value move has you shying away from strict DVBD. Basically, while the dropoff between Gates and, say, Todd Heap may be higher than the dropoff between Parker and D Foster, but you can't get a Ben Watson-esque-level RB in Round 9 or a Roethlisberge-esque-level RB in Round 8. The RB in those rounds will be uber terrible. So, go with what makes sense--RB/RB or RB/WR and don't abide directly by DD.

 

[LordHusker]

Just completed a draft in a 14-teamer at the 12 spot. Caddy fell as someone took Manning and Lordan went before him. Naturally I grabbed him without a second thought and went with CJ in the second.But assuming it does go as you way, I truly beleive that WR-WR is the way to go. I was dead set on that strategy if Caddy did not fall, and I now have the option of reverting back to it since I have been offered SSmith for Caddy. Not biting though as I really wanted Caddy.Assuming 3WR and 2RB, if everyone if off the board like you said, I really think that the value lies in something like a SSmith/Holt or Fitz/TO combo, whatever your heart decides. I'd much rather have two stud WRs than two mid-tier backs. McGahee is an option but has anythying changed in Buffalo? Nope. Expect something similar to last year's numbers, which do not warrant a 1st round pick.Let's pretend Caddy hadn't fallen into my lap and I went Smith/CJ. I was able to get Jamal in the third, Bush in the fourth (not everyone is as high on him in redraft as they are around here), ended up taking Matt Jones in the fifth and Mike Bell in the sixth. I would have been just as happy with Jamal as my starter as anyone from the McGahee/FWP/Dunn/KJ/JJ tier. If I had gone WR-WR these would be my starters at RB and WR:SSmithCJMatt JonesLewisBush/Mike BellHaving a knockout punch at WR and a very serviceable starting RB duo is better IMHO than slightly better RB group and a bunch of Mediocre WRs. BTW, my best choise at 3.12 over Jamal was Santana Moss. The bush pick at 4 was a computer lockup deal, but pretty good value nonetheless.

I went WR-WR last year: Moss and Owens. I had a horrible year. So just be careful.

 

[SFBayDuck]

Assuming 12 RBs go before it gets to me at 14 (which is pretty typical in my league), I'll be looking at guys like McGahee, K. Jones, Parker, Bush, Droughns, and Westbrook. There are no safe bets here, although my thinking is McGahee probably is the safest with Parker next. So what do you do at 2.01? If you go WR, and you can choose from among the top tier. But then you have to wait 27 picks before you get a shot at your RB2, and if things go well you'll be choosing from among guys like Dillon, Foster, Addai, Bell, Gore, and T. Jones, and worse case having to choose from among guys like Taylor, Benson, McAllister, or Green if round 3 stays heavy on the RBs. That's a big risk to take with one of those guys from the latter group as your RB2, and you pretty much have to take 2 of them right there in the hopes that one will actually be servicable. The safe bet seems to be to take McGahee and Parker, but there just doesn't seem to be much upside there. If you think Martz is going to fire up the Detroit offense, you can look at K. Jones here as your RB2. Or you could swing for the fences and take Bush at 2.01. I know that's high, but with Westbrook's injury questions I'm worried about him, and as much as I like Droughns I just don't see much upside there.My league allows 2 flex and WR/TE get 1 ppr so I'm leaning towards going RB/WR, but having to put one of those RBs likely to be available at 3.14 in my lineup every week is a bit scary.

I've been approaching it exactly the same way. I'm thinking either McGahee/Bush or McGahee Parker, with a very slim chance of picking one of those RB and a top WR. I'm heavily leaning Bush, because he looks great. I think either Bush or Jones has decent upside, but I'd rather have Jones for the See I Told You So aspect. And hey if he doesn't pan out, you can always blame it on having a bad draft slot. What were you supposed to do with 14?

To add to the fun, when I run a mock in the DD with 12 RBs and a WR taken in the first 13, DVBD spits out Gates as the highest value at 1.14, and then the top WR available at 2.01. I just can't see going that route, although with our WR-friendly lineups and scoring I'm trying to figure out if I could make WR/WR work for me. Plugging say Holt and CJ into my lineup every week when we can start 4 WRs would sure be nice. But having to stick Gore and Addai, for example, into my RB lineup every week gives me nightmares.

I had another thread about Gates and the DD. It makes sense that Gates and Manning will have the highest DVBD, but sometimes the value move has you shying away from strict DVBD. Basically, while the dropoff between Gates and, say, Todd Heap may be higher than the dropoff between Parker and D Foster, but you can't get a Ben Watson-esque-level RB in Round 9 or a Roethlisberge-esque-level RB in Round 8. The RB in those rounds will be uber terrible. So, go with what makes sense--RB/RB or RB/WR and don't abide directly by DD.

Trust me, that's my thinking as well, not like would even consider Gates at the 1/2 turn (or Manning for that matter).

 

[SFBayDuck]

Just completed a draft in a 14-teamer at the 12 spot. Caddy fell as someone took Manning and Lordan went before him. Naturally I grabbed him without a second thought and went with CJ in the second.But assuming it does go as you way, I truly beleive that WR-WR is the way to go. I was dead set on that strategy if Caddy did not fall, and I now have the option of reverting back to it since I have been offered SSmith for Caddy. Not biting though as I really wanted Caddy.Assuming 3WR and 2RB, if everyone if off the board like you said, I really think that the value lies in something like a SSmith/Holt or Fitz/TO combo, whatever your heart decides. I'd much rather have two stud WRs than two mid-tier backs. McGahee is an option but has anythying changed in Buffalo? Nope. Expect something similar to last year's numbers, which do not warrant a 1st round pick.Let's pretend Caddy hadn't fallen into my lap and I went Smith/CJ. I was able to get Jamal in the third, Bush in the fourth (not everyone is as high on him in redraft as they are around here), ended up taking Matt Jones in the fifth and Mike Bell in the sixth. I would have been just as happy with Jamal as my starter as anyone from the McGahee/FWP/Dunn/KJ/JJ tier. If I had gone WR-WR these would be my starters at RB and WR:SSmithCJMatt JonesLewisBush/Mike BellHaving a knockout punch at WR and a very serviceable starting RB duo is better IMHO than slightly better RB group and a bunch of Mediocre WRs. BTW, my best choise at 3.12 over Jamal was Santana Moss. The bush pick at 4 was a computer lockup deal, but pretty good value nonetheless.

I went WR-WR last year: Moss and Owens. I had a horrible year. So just be careful.

Now that had more to do with the 2 WRs you selected having unexpectedly bad years than anything else. If you went RBRB last year with Deuce and CuMart, for example, your year would've been just as bad.

 

[buckeye35]

I'm also picking 13 out of 14 in a redraft. We start 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1D/1K and by my 3rd round pick (#41), I can expect 25 RBs to be off the board.

I like McGahee in this spot. He went 4th in this league last year (FBG had his ADP as RB5). People are down on him because of the TD dropoff last year, but I think he'll bounce back.

According to the FBG ADP, I could probably land T.O. or Chad Johnson at #16. If I do that, every available RB is a reach in the 3rd round (Tatum Bell, DeShaun Foster, Joseph Addai, Deuce McAllister, Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones, Fred Taylor, Ahman Green). I'm looking at Addai with pick #41, depending on how camp shakes out -- he seems to have the most upside here and I'm not sold on Rhodes -- and then maybe Andre Johnson in the 4th. I'm just not crazy about the other WR options in this spot. Considering his ADP was about #30 last year, I think Johnson presents nice value here as he should improve with Moulds taking the pressure off. Fred Taylor is also interesting here (in place of Addai), but I don't know if I would take the risk.

But, then I started looking at going McGahee/Chester Taylor. In this scenario, I may still be able to get Addai and A. Johnson, so I'm pretty strong at RB now, but not so much at WR. Plus, given my league mates penchant for RBs, I might get lucky and have Roy Williams/Darrell Jackson/Santana Moss fall in my lap at #3. In either case, I'm pretty confident from here I could probably add depth with Lee Evans, Isaac Bruce and maybe Troy Williamson/Brandon Stokely later on. Bledsoe or Vick look like good value in the 6th, if either is still there, and I would look at Marion Barber III in the 7th for depth with a lot of upside. I like L.J. Smith to be Philly's #1 WR and I would take a shot on Kitna or Brunell as a backup to Bledsoe/Vick. Get a D and kicker and take a shot on a sleeper RB/WR or take McGahee's backup and I'm done.

So in my opinion, you're looking at possibly McGahee, C. Johnson, Addai & A. Johnson OR McGahee/C. Taylor, Addai (or a top WR that slips) & A. Johnson with the first 4 picks. I think you could go either way, depending on what you think you'll have left to pick from after that.

The key is knowing your league and what everyone's patterns are. FBGs' ADP was from July 25, so I'm sure this all will change with a new update. But based on that, this looks pretty good to me.

With an updated ADP to look at, plus a few weeks of new information to sort through, these are my changes to my earlier thoughts from this spot (which I'll be picking from in 3 days!!!)I still like McGahee at 13. But coming back at 16, I want Willie Parker, if he's still there. If not, I might pull the trigger on Bush. If both are gone (the guy picking #14 will definitely take 2 RBs, always does), I'm going to take a look at K. Jones and Dunn -- I don't like C. Taylor anymore, something about him bothers me; I don't like Westbrook either, I don't trust that he'll stay healthy. There's a small chance I might go with R.Moss, C. Johnson or Holt at 16, if they are available and Parker is gone.

At #41 and #44, if I ended up taking Bush, I'll probably add another RB at 41 to be safe. I would likely be looking at these guys, who won't make it back to me in the 5th round: F. Taylor, T. Jones, Gore, D. Foster, Addai & Mike Bell. The safest bet may be Gore -- no real competition for carries anymore. I also still like Taylor here. If I have Bush as my RB2, then Taylor seems like a real nice insurance plan here, with a lot of upside. Addai & Bell are reaches here at this point, not knowing how the carries will shake out. I feel I can add Barber III/DeAngelo Williams/C. Brown/Maroney in the 5th/6th and be pretty set at the position (with a Jerious Norwodd/Verron Haynes/Wali Lundy thrown in as a sleeper later for some depth!) Then at #44, I'm going WR, hoping that Mason is there. If not, I still like A. Johnson or I would take Driver. If I ended up with R. Moss, for example, at #16, then I would take two of the above backs with these picks.

At #69 & #72, give me Lee Evans! If he's gone and I have 3 RBs/1 WR, I might take Drew Bennett (it seems a little early, but I like him enough to get him as my #2 here and he might not make it back to me at #97). If not -- and I don't like to take QBs this early -- but if those two WRs are gone, I'm taking Bledsoe, Warner or Vick because I think they each represent excellent value here. If I have 2 WRs already and just 2 RBs, I'll be looking at grabbing two of these: Barber III/DeAngelo Williams/C. Brown/Maroney.

So if all goes well, I'm looking at this team after 6 rounds: McGahee, Parker, F. Taylor, Mason, Evans, C. Brown. If this pans out, I'd like to add, in no particular order, Bruce, Williamson, L.J. Smith, some combination of A. Brooks/Favre/Leftwich/Kitna/Simms, the best kicker and D on the board towards the end and a few guys like Greg Jennings, J. Norwood, V. Haynes or even a 2nd TE if I can snag Watson later (there are 15 rounds).

 

[taz]

I'm picking 14th/15th in a 14-team PPR league (start 2RB/3WR, and we can only draft 4 RBs/6 WRs). I'm leaning toward going WR/WR, or at least RB/WR. RBs always go early, and assuming Manning goes in the first round, I'm not 100% comfortable with the RBs who likely will be available:

RB: McGahee/Cadillac/Westbrook

However, at WR, I'm probably looking my choice of two among: CJohnson/Holt/Fitz/Harrison

Seems like there's a good number of RB2-3 types who'll be available. I'd have to hope there's a run at QB (Palmer, Brady, Hasselbeck, EManning) and WR (Boldin/Owens/Moss/Chambers/Wayne) and even Gates/Heap/Shockey in Rds. 2-3, which might enable me to grab two of:

FWP/Dunn/CTaylor/JJones/JLewis/DFoster/KJones/Gore/CBrown

and fill my other two RB slots with a DWilliams/Addai type.

I always wait on my QB, so that should leave me with someone like Bulger/TGreen.

So what I have to ask myself: Do I want to settle with two 'B' starting RBs in the first round and hope for Wayne/Chambers/Ward/RWilliams types at WR, or snag two 'A' WRs and hope two of the RBs in the 18-25 range fall to me?

 

[MrJamela]

I'm pulling 13 out of 16.

I'm reasonably certain I can get McGahee or Bush on the first round, but I doubt the other will be available on the way back.

Westbrook seems to be the best value based on our scoring, but he scares the heck out of me.

 

[SFBayDuck]

Draft went down Friday night. First 13 picks were all RBs, leaving me with a choice of McGahee, the Joneses, Taylor, Westie, Bush, or Jamal. I went with McGahee, and then just couldn't pull the trigger on one of those other guys at that spot, so I grabbed S. Smith (narrowly over Holt). By the time it got back to me at 3.14, 27 RBs were off the board along with 12 WRs, Manning, and Gates. When I went WR at 2.01 I did so with the hope that Droughns or Foster would be here (and dreaming of both), but they went 3.07 and 3.12. So I grabbed my top ranked WR and RB in Wayne and Mike Bell.

I filled out my RBs with A. Green at 6.01 (C. Brown went 5.13, Taylor, Barlow, Duckett, G. Jones went right after Green in the 6th) and MBIII at 8.01 (Davenport and Michael Turner were the next 2 RBs taken), and added M. Muhammad at 5.14 as my WR3.

Biggest surprise was how far QBs slipped, and at 7.14 McNabb was still sitting there (Peyton, Palmer, Hasselbeck, and Brady were the only QBs off the board). I've never taken a QB that early, but couldn't pass up the value there. I had planned on going RB/TE here, but I got lucky and Ben Watson was still there when it got back to me at 9.14.

So for those picking 13th/14th and considering going RB/WR at the turn, this gives you an idea of what RB choices you may be looking at in later rounds. And if I had gone WR/WR, I'd be looking at a RB group composed of guys like M. Bell, C. Brown, F. Taylor, Barlow, Deuce, Addai/Rhodes, MBIII, etc.

Of course every league varies and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

 

[a_f13nd]

Draft went down Friday night. First 13 picks were all RBs, leaving me with a choice of McGahee, the Joneses, Taylor, Westie, Bush, or Jamal. I went with McGahee, and then just couldn't pull the trigger on one of those other guys at that spot, so I grabbed S. Smith (narrowly over Holt). By the time it got back to me at 3.14, 27 RBs were off the board along with 12 WRs, Manning, and Gates. When I went WR at 2.01 I did so with the hope that Droughns or Foster would be here (and dreaming of both), but they went 3.07 and 3.12. So I grabbed my top ranked WR and RB in Wayne and Mike Bell. I filled out my RBs with A. Green at 6.01 (C. Brown went 5.13, Taylor, Barlow, Duckett, G. Jones went right after Green in the 6th) and MBIII at 8.01 (Davenport and Michael Turner were the next 2 RBs taken), and added M. Muhammad at 5.14 as my WR3. Biggest surprise was how far QBs slipped, and at 7.14 McNabb was still sitting there (Peyton, Palmer, Hasselbeck, and Brady were the only QBs off the board). I've never taken a QB that early, but couldn't pass up the value there. I had planned on going RB/TE here, but I got lucky and Ben Watson was still there when it got back to me at 9.14.So for those picking 13th/14th and considering going RB/WR at the turn, this gives you an idea of what RB choices you may be looking at in later rounds. And if I had gone WR/WR, I'd be looking at a RB group composed of guys like M. Bell, C. Brown, F. Taylor, Barlow, Deuce, Addai/Rhodes, MBIII, etc.Of course every league varies and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Every draft has unpredictability. I got this at 14th slot. Really everything fell to me:Brett FavreDrew BledsoePhilip RiversCadillac WilliamsWillis McGaheeReuben DroughnsJerius NorwoodRoy WilliamsRod SmithTerry GlennAntonio BryantReggie WilliamsBen WatsonJay FeelyAZ DDET D