1st 5 round thinking (1 Viewer)

[Binky The Doormat]

Going by Antsports ADP of only serious mocks. Also our league uses auction for the first three rounds ($100 total - if you spend all of your money before getting your 2nd or 3rd player, you just go to the bottom - 36th pick and so on).

Below is the list as it exists today (knowing there WILL be significant changes before my draft the last Friday in August):

1. LaDainian Tomlinson RB SDC 1.01.08 1.01 1.02 00.28 13 We have seen LT and sometimes another guys go at $100 and get pics 35/36

2. Adrian Peterson RB MIN 1.02.08 1.01 1.03 00.51 12 Love him but not as much as LT

3. Steven Jackson RB STL 1.03.38 1.02 1.05 00.77 13 Like him alot this year - I will try and rake him as cheaply as possible

4. Brian Westbrook RB PHI 1.03.50 1.02 1.05 00.90 12 If I can't get SJax - I will happily take him at what should be a bit cheaper

5. Joseph Addai RB IND 1.05.46 1.04 1.08 00.97 13 (These to me are the potential biggest spends for our league at RB)

6. Frank Gore RB SFO 1.07.08 1.05 1.10 01.44 13

7. Randy Moss WR NEP 1.08.62 1.04 2.01 02.84 13

8. Tom Brady QB NEP 1.09.00 1.05 2.02 03.11 13 He will go high - maybe as high as AP or SJax - maybe the $100 I expect for LT

9. Marion III Barber RB DAL 1.09.78 1.06 2.02 02.54 9

10. Clinton Portis RB WAS 1.10.15 1.07 2.05 02.85 13

11. Marshawn Lynch RB BUF 1.11.23 1.07 2.03 02.24 13

12. Larry Johnson RB KCC 1.12.33 1.09 2.06 03.08 12

13. Reggie Wayne WR IND 2.01.85 1.09 2.06 02.70 13

14. Peyton Manning QB IND 2.02.17 1.07 2.09 04.69 12

15. Willis McGahee RB BAL 2.03.64 1.09 2.11 03.98 11

16. Terrell Owens WR DAL 2.03.77 1.10 2.08 02.89 13

17. Reggie Bush RB NOS 2.04.17 1.12 3.01 04.11 12

18. Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAC 2.05.20 2.01 2.10 02.78 10

19. Ryan Grant RB GBP 2.06.08 2.02 2.12 02.57 12

20. Braylon Edwards WR CLE 2.08.08 2.03 3.03 03.84 13

21. Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI 2.08.85 2.01 2.12 02.88 13

22. Andre Johnson WR HOU 2.09.08 2.06 2.12 01.93 13

23. Tony Romo QB DAL 2.12.40 2.07 3.08 04.58 10

24. Steve Smith WR CAR 3.01.20 2.09 3.08 03.19 10

25. Marques Colston WR NOS 3.02.08 2.09 3.05 02.06 13

26. Laurence Maroney RB NEP 3.02.50 2.04 3.10 06.35 10

27. TJ Houshmandzadeh WR CIN 3.02.92 3.01 3.07 01.98 13

28. Chad Johnson WR CIN 3.04.50 2.12 3.10 02.84 12

29. Torry Holt WR STL 3.07.25 3.03 3.11 02.42 12

30. Jamal Lewis RB CLE 3.07.55 2.11 4.09 07.30 11

31. Michael Turner RB ATL 3.07.63 2.04 4.11 09.55 8

32. Wes Welker WR NEP 3.10.15 3.06 4.05 03.58 13

33. Anquan Boldin WR ARI 3.10.18 3.07 4.01 01.78 11

34. Drew Brees QB NOS 3.10.58 3.02 4.10 06.82 12

35. Brandon Jacobs RB NYG 3.11.17 2.12 4.09 05.51 12

36. Ronnie Brown RB MIA 3.12.46 3.03 4.07 04.56 13

37. Plaxico Burress WR NYG 3.12.46 3.06 4.07 03.64 13

38. Brandon Marshall WR DEN 4.01.38 3.05 4.09 04.74 13

39. Earnest Graham RB TBB 4.02.17 3.04 5.01 06.07 12

40. Carson Palmer QB CIN 4.03.00 3.04 4.11 06.93 10

41. Roy Williams WR DET 4.05.62 3.12 5.02 03.86 13

42. Willie Parker RB PIT 4.05.82 3.04 5.08 08.26 11

43. Jason Witten TE DAL 4.06.10 3.10 5.02 04.79 10

44. Thomas Jones RB NYJ 4.06.75 3.10 5.03 05.41 12

45. Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT 4.10.00 3.01 5.10 12.44 6

46. Calvin Johnson WR DET 4.10.25 4.01 5.11 06.67 8

47. Santonio Holmes WR PIT 4.10.92 3.11 5.12 06.47 12

48. Julius Jones RB SEA 5.01.25 4.04 5.12 07.03 8

49. Greg Jennings WR GBP 5.01.44 4.04 5.09 05.90 9

50. Edgerrin James RB ARI 5.03.00 4.06 5.10 05.97 11

51. Antonio Gates TE SDC 5.03.75 4.02 6.06 07.25 12

52. Lee Evans WR BUF 5.04.00 4.08 6.04 08.29 7

53. Rudi Johnson RB CIN 5.05.00 4.06 6.04 07.58 9

54. Selvin Young RB DEN 5.06.55 4.08 6.08 07.31 11

55. Kellen Winslow TE CLE 5.06.64 4.07 6.06 06.20 11

56. Darren McFadden RB OAK 5.09.64 4.01 8.09 16.91 11

57. Marvin Harrison WR IND 5.10.18 4.10 6.07 07.52 11

58. Derek Anderson QB CLE 5.10.40 4.10 7.12 10.59 10

59. Lendale White RB TEN 5.11.63 5.02 7.04 08.35 8

60. Dwayne Bowe WR KCC 5.12.89 5.03 7.10 09.13 9

61. Roddy White WR ATL 6.02.25 5.01 7.10 09.78 8

62. Tony Gonzalez TE KCC 6.02.36 5.03 7.01 06.99 11

63. Chris Chambers WR SDC 6.03.00 4.03 7.03 11.79 9

64. Jonathan Stewart RB CAR 6.03.56 5.05 7.04 08.03 9

65. Dallas Clark TE IND 6.05.43 4.10 7.06 11.89 7

66. Donovan McNabb QB PHI 6.08.50 6.01 7.04 05.63 8

67. Kevin Smith RB DET 6.09.56 5.04 7.09 10.06 9

68. Matt Hasselbeck QB SEA 6.10.30 5.12 7.11 07.45 10

69. Chris Cooley TE WAS 6.10.60 5.09 7.11 07.85 10

70. DeAngelo Williams RB CAR 6.11.00 5.01 8.05 16.16 6

71. Matt Forte RB CHI 6.11.00 6.02 7.07 06.16 7

72. Jerricho Cotchery WR NYJ 6.12.67 6.04 9.04 13.59 6

 

[Binky The Doormat]

My RB tiers

Tier 1 - LT alone

Tier 2

SJax

AP

Westbrook

Tier 3

Addai

Gore

Tier 4

Portis

LJ (not as safe as Lynch - but very high on upside - don't know if I would really pull the trigger over Lynch when the time comes)

Lynch

Grant

Tier 5

Barber

McGahee

MJD

Tier 6

J. Lewis

Edge

Rudi

T. Jones

LenDale

L. Maroney (yes here ...)

Turner

W. Parker (yes here ...)

Graham

Tier 7

J. Stewart

McFadden

B. Jacobs

Forte

R. Brown (I want him next year - not this year)

K. Smith

 

[GoBirds]

My RB tiersTier 1 - LT aloneTier 2SJaxAPWestbrookTier 3AddaiGoreTier 4Portis LJ (not as safe as Lynch - but very high on upside - don't know if I would really pull the trigger over Lynch when the time comes)LynchGrant Tier 5BarberMcGaheeMJDTier 6J. LewisEdgeRudiT. JonesLenDale L. Maroney (yes here ...)TurnerW. Parker (yes here ...)GrahamTier 7J. StewartMcFaddenB. JacobsForteR. Brown (I want him next year - not this year)K. Smith

no reggie?

 

[Binky The Doormat]

WR Tiers

Tier 1

Moss

TO

Tier 2

Fitz

Wayne

Edwards

Colston

A Johnson

Tier 3

S. Smith

Housh

Ocho

Boldin

Marshall (only if can get in 4th or 5th)

Tier 4

Holt

Burress

Welker (if ok - not clear what is wrong)

I think reliability really drops off at this point

Tier 5

S. Homles

Roy Williams

Marvin Harrison

Dwayne Bowe

G. Jennings

 

[Binky The Doormat]

Standard flex line up with TE required:

1st Rd

- all RBs but Brady and Moss (fairly typical - almost all RBs with a top QB and WR)

2nd Rd

- pretty hard to go RB with the drop off in RBs here over a top 7-8 WR

- lunless something weird happens you are looking at MJD/Grant/McGahee here vs. any WR except Moss

- don't tell me you would consider R. Bush here in a limited PPR or R. Brown or J. Lewis??

- QBs are going quicker this year - Peyton going early if not taken in the 1st, Romo is going mid-late and I suspect that Brees may be headed this way

3rd Rd

- Here is the real problem as I see it - the RBs have just really thinned out; so if you didn't stretch on a RB over a WR in the 2nd - you are really faced with a leap here

- likely looking at Brown/Maroney/Lewis/TurnerMcFadden/Jacobs vs. S. Smith/Housh/Ocho/Holt/Marshall/Boldin/Plax

- Brees is definitely gone early if he makes it to the this rd, and Palmer/Ben are starting to appear more and more late here (not smart)

4th Rd

- You know what? Take a look - this has to be the worst round for value. I mean this is the 4th round!!! Who is here? I believe my 4th pick should be a dominating player don't you? This is a mess.

- RBs - Graham/FWP/TJones ...JJones - are you kidding me!!! Let someone else bury their pick - the only guy I would consider here is TJones and that scares the hell out of me at the 4th pick

- WRs - Plax/Marshall/Roy Williams/Calvin Johnson/S. Holmes - I tell you Plax disappears, Marshall is scaring me with all the crap, Roy W and Calvin won't both dominate - and very possibly neither, S. Holmes - encouraging, but dominating - a lot of tools on that team now.

- QBs - Ben is more likely to go here than the 3rd, but don't count on seeing him in the 5th - ain't happenin'; don't be suprised to see Derek Anderson go late here as well (not that you would want him there)

- TEs - the appearance ...Witten going mid-4th; you may see Gates go soon after - but more normally along with Winslow in the 5th

5th

- Some decent RB values here - unless you and others felt rightfully compelled to reach for some of these guys in the 4th - WHICH I SEE ALOT IN MOCKS

- RBs - Edge/Rudi/LenDale/McFadden/Selvin Young - me likey lots!!!!!! Excellent, excellent RB3s; not so excited about RB2s though. A healthy Rudi excites me; I am not in the camp that says Edge has had it - but he doesn't have the ceiling I would like to see from my RBs; Lendale will compete with some carries but he still will be the guy in a pass poor O this year; McFadden - not counting on but could be spectacular - why i like him as a great RB 3 with a less exciting but solid guy in the wings; S. Young could be a top RB 2 or better (though the whole Denver RB deal is still there)

- WRs - Jennings/Evans/Harrison/Bowe - I will monitor Harrison but I am going RB here unless something incredibly wacky happens

- QBs - This is primarily where Anderson goes as QB7, though occasionally McNabb will float in there as well; its a pretty lean QB round normally

- TEs - Gonzo may go here - but more likely starts the next rung of TEs in the sixth with Clark and Cooley

Summary:

- There is such a big drop off in RBs after the first 5-6 and then 7-12 unless it is likely to shove into going WR with picks 2/3 or WR/QB if you want a shot at a true top tier 1 WR and Brees or a a QB/WR gets you Manning/Romo and Holt/Johnson type WR1

- a giant (and I mean giant) drop in reliable RBs after the early 2nd mean you had better not miss out on a quality RB guy in the 5th

- TEs - I am waiting - but the if the pickings are just too yucky in the 4th and you believe in Gates/Witten go for it - that likely won't be me