1st pick 2011 Fantasy drafts (1 Viewer)

[imagroid]

I take AP. Safest bet to finish top 10, and in round 1 you want to avoid the big bust. You also start a minimum of 2 RBs which makes them more valuable. You start 1 QB. I wouldn't take Vick because you can get similar performance from one of the other top QBs, and you only need to start 1.Those who use DVBD know this is the correct line of thinking.

What other QB are you getting at pick 2.12 or later that puts up similar performances to Vick?

If you take Vick at 1.01, what RB are YOU getting at 2.12?And what is the differential between the two pairs?Next - when are you taking Kolb or a different backup QB?

Take a look at the top 12 RB's on a PPG basis. 1/2 of them were available at 2.12

 

[atl3695]

Vick/Foster/MJDThree horse race IMHO.

Suprised at all the love for MJD in this thread. He started slow (less than 12 pts. in four of his first six games in PPR), and even now after his great run is still only RB#9 in standard PPR leagues. In addition to the top names like CJ and ADP, is behind Ray Rice, McCoy, McFadden and Charles.His TD's way are down and he is on pace for the lowest number of receptions and receiving yards in his career.How could anyone even consider MJD at #1?

Maybe because he's finished top 9 in 4 of the 5 years he's been in the league. The other finish was 13th during his 2nd year when he was still splitting time. One of those finishes was a 3rd overall. There's value to consistency and top production even if it's not overall #1 production. It's similar to Peyton Manning being the #1 QB for so long despite only one #1 finish in 13 years.

Peterson especially and to a lesser extent Johnson have show the same type of consistency during their career and don't show the decline of MJD. Not saying he shouldnt be one of the top 6 or 7 chosen, but no way #1. Peterson just as consistent and has shown he can produce under any circumstance.

 

[Captain Hook]

I would vote for Vick. And for those claiming that you shouldn't draft a QB with the #1 overall pick - I will say the exception is when you have a guy that produces like a QB1 and a RB1 simultaneously. The rush yards make him almost a no-brainer #1 pick.

In leagues where passing touchdowns are four points and rushing touchdowns six points,My bad - didn't double check figures from another site.....Vick is seven points per game better than Rivers and Brees, but stillEIGHT of the top twelve scorers are quarterbacks (as well as #s13-15)EDITED for error in ppg numbers

 

[atl3695]

I would vote for Vick. And for those claiming that you shouldn't draft a QB with the #1 overall pick - I will say the exception is when you have a guy that produces like a QB1 and a RB1 simultaneously. The rush yards make him almost a no-brainer #1 pick.

In leagues where passing touchdowns are four points and rushing touchdowns six points,Even WITH the rushing yards, Vick is less than a point per game better than Rivers and Breesless than two points per game better than Peyton and RodgersAnd EIGHT of the top twelve scorers are quarterbacks (as well as #s13-15)

You are not counting the 3 games Vick missed where you dont take a 0 but start someone else.

 

[atl3695]

double post

 

[gianmarco]

Even WITH the rushing yards, Vick is less than a point per game better than Rivers and Breesless than two points per game better than Peyton and Rodgers

What kind of goofy scoring system has this as a result? I don't have a single league where Vick isn't a minimum of 5 ppg higher than the #2 QB.

 

[gethugefast1]

Thus my dilemma...We have a (1) player keeper league

I have...

ADP, Foster & Vick (whoever I keep, I give up the other 2)

Safe to assume (not jinx), I'll be taking the championship this weekend & end up w/the #12 pick

So normal 1st round is our keeper round... end up drafting at the turn 2.12 & 3.01

 

[atl3695]

Even WITH the rushing yards, Vick is less than a point per game better than Rivers and Breesless than two points per game better than Peyton and Rodgers

What kind of goofy scoring system has this as a result? I don't have a single league where Vick isn't a minimum of 5 ppg higher than the #2 QB.

He is using total points not ppg played. Vick is about 10-20 points in front of the other qb's in most leagues which is less than 2 per game, but doesnt take into account games Vick didnt start.

 

[imagroid]

I would vote for Vick. And for those claiming that you shouldn't draft a QB with the #1 overall pick - I will say the exception is when you have a guy that produces like a QB1 and a RB1 simultaneously. The rush yards make him almost a no-brainer #1 pick.

In leagues where passing touchdowns are four points and rushing touchdowns six points,Even WITH the rushing yards, Vick is less than a point per game better than Rivers and Breesless than two points per game better than Peyton and RodgersAnd EIGHT of the top twelve scorers are quarterbacks (as well as #s13-15)

TERRIBLE post

 

[Captain Hook]

Even WITH the rushing yards, Vick is less than a point per game better than Rivers and Breesless than two points per game better than Peyton and Rodgers

What kind of goofy scoring system has this as a result? I don't have a single league where Vick isn't a minimum of 5 ppg higher than the #2 QB.

My bad - see correction above - Vick is seven points per game better than Rivers and Brees

 

[gethugefast1]

Thus my dilemma...We have a (1) player keeper leagueI have...ADP, Foster & Vick (whoever I keep, I give up the other 2) Safe to assume (not jinx), I'll be taking the championship this weekend & end up w/the #12 pickSo normal 1st round is our keeper round... end up drafting at the turn 2.12 & 3.01

BTW...If you ignore the Redskin game Vick got knocked out of early (I'm ingnoring it), Vick averaged 29+ points per/game in our league. 8 points more per/game then Rodgers.Foster outscored Mcfadden by 1 point & ADP by 3 points per/game...that's a huge margin in FF for Vick!!!

 

[Buckna]

ADP will be the #1 pick for the risk-adverse, Vick will be the #1 for the swing for the fencers. I wouldn't fault someone for taking either one.

You dont' think people will consider the top RB of 2010(by far and away)Foster will definitely go #1 in a significant percentage of drafts next year.

Define significant? It will almost certainly be less than the number of drafts ADP will go first overall in. ADP has a track record, most people will err on the side of caution.Will Peyton Hillis go #2 overall in a significant percentage of drafts next year?Edit: I thought about it some more and I think I see what you were saying. Yes, I can easily see some people choosing Foster over ADP as the home-run pick, but I happen to think it will be a smaller minority. Whether they are correct criticisms or not, I think a lot of people are going to see the undrafted status, the Steve Slaton fluke/Kubiak system with past RB's, the turmoil with the coaching with the Texans, etc and have a lot of reservations. ADP has some issues right now with the coach/QB situation, but he has a pedigree, a proven track record and has shown the ability to overcome those same issues in the past. Plus the coach/QB will be a lot clearer come August.

 

[Utter Chaos]

I would vote for Vick. And for those claiming that you shouldn't draft a QB with the #1 overall pick - I will say the exception is when you have a guy that produces like a QB1 and a RB1 simultaneously. The rush yards make him almost a no-brainer #1 pick.

How is Vick and QB1 AND a RB1 simultaneously? His rushing yards is what makes him a QB1. He has 613 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns this year in 11 games. That's an average of 55.7 yards and .72 touchdowns a week. That is not a RB1. Just counting Vick's rushing yards would put him tied for 24th amoung RB's with a 9.9 weekly average. That's barely RB2. If you just count his passing stats he's probably about 8th in passing points per week. Add them up he's definitely a QB1 but seperately he's an average QB1 and a low end RB2.

 

[Utter Chaos]

Thus my dilemma...We have a (1) player keeper league

I have...

ADP, Foster & Vick (whoever I keep, I give up the other 2)

Safe to assume (not jinx), I'll be taking the championship this weekend & end up w/the #12 pick

So normal 1st round is our keeper round... end up drafting at the turn 2.12 & 3.01

BTW...If you ignore the Redskin game Vick got knocked out of early (I'm ingnoring it), Vick averaged 29+ points per/game in our league. 8 points more per/game then Rodgers.Foster outscored Mcfadden by 1 point & ADP by 3 points per/game...that's a huge margin in FF for Vick!!!

Ummmm, if you're going to ignore Vick's Redskin game then shouldn't you do the same with Rodgers' Detroit game?

 

[Buzzbait]

ADP in a landslide for me. Foster "might" be better but I know ADP will be solid. CJ would be the next player I would consider. He isn't having the year people expected but he's still a stud. As for Vick? No way no how I'm taking a QB at 1.1.

 

[gianmarco]

I would vote for Vick. And for those claiming that you shouldn't draft a QB with the #1 overall pick - I will say the exception is when you have a guy that produces like a QB1 and a RB1 simultaneously. The rush yards make him almost a no-brainer #1 pick.

In leagues where passing touchdowns are four points and rushing touchdowns six points,My bad - didn't double check figures from another site.....Vick is seven points per game better than Rivers and Brees, but still

EIGHT of the top twelve scorers are quarterbacks (as well as #s13-15)

EDITED for error in ppg numbers

I'm glad you fixed your post, but you can't say "but still" as if your original point is still correct. It would be fine if it were only 2ppg like you originally contended. 7ppg is an INCREDIBLE difference. That's almost an extra starting spot. And that's comparing him to the next 2 ELITE QBs. When you figure his advantage against even "just" a top 6-7 guy, then you're talking about 10+ppg advantage over 1/2 your league.

Who cares if 8 of the top 12 scorers are QBs? If one of those QBs is significantly outscoring all the rest of those guys, it doesn't matter where they fall. You could have 30 QBs in the top 30 in scoring, but if one of those QBs is outscoring the 2nd highest QB by 50 ppg/week, you better believe you want that QB.

This debate has gotten silly at some levels. If you have a player scoring 7 ppg better than the #2 ranked player at the same position, then that guy is simply the most valuable player in the league. It could be a QB, RB, WR, TE, or even a K for that matter. Those trying to argue that, just because he's a QB, he doesn't deserve to be 1.1 aren't making any sense. If I told you that I know 100% for sure that next year Vick is going to continue to score 7ppg more than the #2 ranked QB, then he's absolutely worth the #1 overall pick.

The question isn't whether that advantage is worth it. The question is whether or not Vick can sustain that kind of production to warrant the #1 pick. But, if you know this year's stats would be completely replicated, Vick is the 1.1 pick hands down.

 

[plyka]

For everyone suggesting Brady, keep in mind that the top QB's this year are really close as far as fantasy points go. In my league, it goes:Rivers 363Brees 361Vick 355Brady 348Manning 343Rodgers 325I don't think taking a QB #1 is a good idea at all.

This is a disingenious post. Vick missed a good chunk of games while Manning hasn't missed 1, niether has Rivers. Comparing their numbers is disingenious at best. The proper way to measure is points per game played, or at least adding in a potential backups numbers during the games missed by each QB since that's what would happen in fantasy. It's not like i left the QB position open when Vick went down for my team this year, lol.

 

[plyka]

Chris Johnson. Who else has proven they can put up 2,000 yards?

OJ Simpson, but I'm not sure if you can pick him in Yahoo! leagues so he is out for me.

 

[moderated]

I would vote for Vick. And for those claiming that you shouldn't draft a QB with the #1 overall pick - I will say the exception is when you have a guy that produces like a QB1 and a RB1 simultaneously. The rush yards make him almost a no-brainer #1 pick.

In leagues where passing touchdowns are four points and rushing touchdowns six points,My bad - didn't double check figures from another site.....Vick is seven points per game better than Rivers and Brees, but still

EIGHT of the top twelve scorers are quarterbacks (as well as #s13-15)

EDITED for error in ppg numbers

I'm glad you fixed your post, but you can't say "but still" as if your original point is still correct. It would be fine if it were only 2ppg like you originally contended. 7ppg is an INCREDIBLE difference. That's almost an extra starting spot. And that's comparing him to the next 2 ELITE QBs. When you figure his advantage against even "just" a top 6-7 guy, then you're talking about 10+ppg advantage over 1/2 your league.

Who cares if 8 of the top 12 scorers are QBs? If one of those QBs is significantly outscoring all the rest of those guys, it doesn't matter where they fall. You could have 30 QBs in the top 30 in scoring, but if one of those QBs is outscoring the 2nd highest QB by 50 ppg/week, you better believe you want that QB.

This debate has gotten silly at some levels. If you have a player scoring 7 ppg better than the #2 ranked player at the same position, then that guy is simply the most valuable player in the league. It could be a QB, RB, WR, TE, or even a K for that matter. Those trying to argue that, just because he's a QB, he doesn't deserve to be 1.1 aren't making any sense. If I told you that I know 100% for sure that next year Vick is going to continue to score 7ppg more than the #2 ranked QB, then he's absolutely worth the #1 overall pick.

The question isn't whether that advantage is worth it. The question is whether or not Vick can sustain that kind of production to warrant the #1 pick. But, if you know this year's stats would be completely replicated, Vick is the 1.1 pick hands down.

LOL at those using total points and using that as Vick's PPG.

Not saying vick is the sure #1 pick, but he's as good a pick there as anyone else.

 

[footballnerd]

Some people still dont get it on vick. If he stays in Philly he is EASILY the number 1 overall pick. The next player isn't even close.

6 pt passing TD formats I could see this. In other formats I love people who take QB the first round while I go RB.

 

[gianmarco]

Some people still dont get it on vick. If he stays in Philly he is EASILY the number 1 overall pick. The next player isn't even close.

6 pt passing TD formats I could see this. In other formats I love people who take QB the first round while I go RB.

Vick is more valuable in 4 pt passing TD formats. HTH.

 

[footballnerd]

Some people still dont get it on vick. If he stays in Philly he is EASILY the number 1 overall pick. The next player isn't even close.

6 pt passing TD formats I could see this. In other formats I love people who take QB the first round while I go RB.

Vick is more valuable in 4 pt passing TD formats. HTH.

move valuable than an RB1?

 

[Wu-banger]

Some people still dont get it on vick. If he stays in Philly he is EASILY the number 1 overall pick. The next player isn't even close.

6 pt passing TD formats I could see this. In other formats I love people who take QB the first round while I go RB.

I long been against taking a QB in the 1st or early 2nd Round and this past year gave me a great example as to why you shouldnt....In my 12 team redraft league where all tds are 6pts... Manning, Brady, Rodgers and Brees all went towards the back end of the 1st Round of this past years draft.... some owners were going with the "safe" pick since so many question marks surround the 1st round last year.NOT ONE TEAM selecting a QB in Rd 1 made the playoffs....very telling in my opinion.I do not think Vick would be the exception to this rule..... part of Vicks value this year is were owners acquired him...Free Agent most likely.I'll take Peterson as #1 overall and pair him with a QB value in the 3rd or 4th Round..... guys like Manning, Romo, Rodgers may slide over taking Vick #1 and hoping on a #1 RB in the start of Round 2 is still there.

 

[gianmarco]

Some people still dont get it on vick. If he stays in Philly he is EASILY the number 1 overall pick. The next player isn't even close.

6 pt passing TD formats I could see this. In other formats I love people who take QB the first round while I go RB.

Vick is more valuable in 4 pt passing TD formats. HTH.

move valuable than an RB1?

What does that have to do with my statement? You said you could see Vick being taken 1st in a 6 pt passing TD format but not in other formats. I'm pointing out that Vick EASILY has more value in a 4 pt passing TD league. I'll let you think about why.As for your 2nd irrelevant question to the above, yes, he's more valuable than a RB1 if he's outscoring the #2 QB by as much as he is now. The difference between them is significantly larger than the difference between RB1 and RB2. It's VBD.

 

[flc735]

here is an example:

peyton- might fall to 2.12 in 2011

rivers - was available at 2.12 in 2010

charles/bradshaw- you should be able to get one of these guys at 2.12 in 2011

so im giving peyton/rivers the qb value of the 2.12 pick and charles/bradshaw the rb value at the 2.12 pick

in ppr

AP + peyton/rivers

gave you about 43 ppg

vick + charles/bradshaw (rb's you could get at 2.12 if your lucky)

gave you about 49 ppg

i took out APs week 14 game and vicks week 4 game

so there you are, if all players preform the same, vick gives you a 6 ppg advantage

in other words, vick would have to average about 6 ppg less next year to make this a wash

 

[Utter Chaos]

Some people still dont get it on vick. If he stays in Philly he is EASILY the number 1 overall pick. The next player isn't even close.

6 pt passing TD formats I could see this. In other formats I love people who take QB the first round while I go RB.

I long been against taking a QB in the 1st or early 2nd Round and this past year gave me a great example as to why you shouldnt....In my 12 team redraft league where all tds are 6pts... Manning, Brady, Rodgers and Brees all went towards the back end of the 1st Round of this past years draft.... some owners were going with the "safe" pick since so many question marks surround the 1st round last year.NOT ONE TEAM selecting a QB in Rd 1 made the playoffs....very telling in my opinion.I do not think Vick would be the exception to this rule..... part of Vicks value this year is were owners acquired him...Free Agent most likely.I'll take Peterson as #1 overall and pair him with a QB value in the 3rd or 4th Round..... guys like Manning, Romo, Rodgers may slide over taking Vick #1 and hoping on a #1 RB in the start of Round 2 is still there.

That's basically what I said in post 86. It's a heck of a lot easier to find a QB to plug in later in the season then it is a RB. It's better to have the stud RB and a low 1st tier or 2nd tier QB. (For 2011 I'd consider Vick, Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Peyton, and Rivers as 1st tier, 2nd tier would be any other QB not on the Browns, Raiders, 49ers, Panthers, or cardinals).

 

[Utter Chaos]

here is an example:

peyton- might fall to 2.12 in 2011

rivers - was available at 2.12 in 2010

charles/bradshaw- you should be able to get one of these guys at 2.12 in 2011

so im giving peyton/rivers the qb value of the 2.12 pick and charles/bradshaw the rb value at the 2.12 pick

in ppr

AP + peyton/rivers

gave you about 43 ppg

vick + charles/bradshaw (rb's you could get at 2.12 if your lucky)

gave you about 49 ppg

i took out APs week 14 game and vicks week 4 game

so there you are, if all players preform the same, vick gives you a 6 ppg advantage

in other words, vick would have to average about 6 ppg less next year to make this a wash

charles will probably be gone by the 10th pick in 2011. At pick 2.12 you're looking at the RB15 range which would be Steven Jackson territory.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Peterson has done a little more than CJ with a little less IMO, I would take ADP 1st

 

[imagroid]

Some people still dont get it on vick. If he stays in Philly he is EASILY the number 1 overall pick. The next player isn't even close.

6 pt passing TD formats I could see this. In other formats I love people who take QB the first round while I go RB.

I long been against taking a QB in the 1st or early 2nd Round and this past year gave me a great example as to why you shouldnt....In my 12 team redraft league where all tds are 6pts... Manning, Brady, Rodgers and Brees all went towards the back end of the 1st Round of this past years draft.... some owners were going with the "safe" pick since so many question marks surround the 1st round last year.NOT ONE TEAM selecting a QB in Rd 1 made the playoffs....very telling in my opinion.I do not think Vick would be the exception to this rule..... part of Vicks value this year is were owners acquired him...Free Agent most likely.I'll take Peterson as #1 overall and pair him with a QB value in the 3rd or 4th Round..... guys like Manning, Romo, Rodgers may slide over taking Vick #1 and hoping on a #1 RB in the start of Round 2 is still there.

That's basically what I said in post 86. It's a heck of a lot easier to find a QB to plug in later in the season then it is a RB. It's better to have the stud RB and a low 1st tier or 2nd tier QB. (For 2011 I'd consider Vick, Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Peyton, and Rivers as 1st tier, 2nd tier would be any other QB not on the Browns, Raiders, 49ers, Panthers, or cardinals).

Not good posting at all. First off, sample size. 1 league does not qualify. Secondly, its clear that Manning & Brady in the 1st are huge reaches. Anybody who understood VBD, wouldn't have done that because they could have taken either in the 2nd. Only telling thing there is horrible drafters didn't make the playoffs. I agree that it's easier to find plug in QB's late in the season, but overall there are more top 10-20 RB's & WR's that are waiver pickups. Vick is already the #1 QB in standard scoring and he's spotting the field 3 games. Wayyy too much value, especially when 1/2 of the top RB1's where taken 2.12 and later.

 

[thehornet]

Some people still dont get it on vick. If he stays in Philly he is EASILY the number 1 overall pick. The next player isn't even close.

6 pt passing TD formats I could see this. In other formats I love people who take QB the first round while I go RB.

I long been against taking a QB in the 1st or early 2nd Round and this past year gave me a great example as to why you shouldnt....In my 12 team redraft league where all tds are 6pts... Manning, Brady, Rodgers and Brees all went towards the back end of the 1st Round of this past years draft.... some owners were going with the "safe" pick since so many question marks surround the 1st round last year.

NOT ONE TEAM selecting a QB in Rd 1 made the playoffs....very telling in my opinion.

I do not think Vick would be the exception to this rule..... part of Vicks value this year is were owners acquired him...Free Agent most likely.

I'll take Peterson as #1 overall and pair him with a QB value in the 3rd or 4th Round..... guys like Manning, Romo, Rodgers may slide over taking Vick #1 and hoping on a #1 RB in the start of Round 2 is still there.

That's basically what I said in post 86. It's a heck of a lot easier to find a QB to plug in later in the season then it is a RB. It's better to have the stud RB and a low 1st tier or 2nd tier QB. (For 2011 I'd consider Vick, Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Peyton, and Rivers as 1st tier, 2nd tier would be any other QB not on the Browns, Raiders, 49ers, Panthers, or cardinals).

No it isn't.

 

[cr8f]

I think Darren McFadden should be in the conversation as well.

I think you don;t want to win your league.

Nothing wrong with conversing. Taking him #1 is another matter.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

I think a lot of the situations outside Jacksonville have big IFSADP - who is playing quarterback?CJ - who is playing QB again, AND who is coaching the team?Foster - who is coaching the team? Overall this may be the most productive offense (helped by more attempts since the defense is so bad)Charles - how many carries will Jones get? Will Cassel be asked to pass more?Vick doesn't even get in the discussion as far as I am concerned (unless it's a QB flex or two QB league)

Captain: In Vick's 10 starts not including his injury game, he is averaging 32 points a game. 32! That may be unprecedented.

Tom Brady - 2007 - 33.6No one that I know of took Brady at #1 overall the next year.

 

[footballnerd]

Some people still dont get it on vick. If he stays in Philly he is EASILY the number 1 overall pick. The next player isn't even close.

6 pt passing TD formats I could see this. In other formats I love people who take QB the first round while I go RB.

Vick is more valuable in 4 pt passing TD formats. HTH.

move valuable than an RB1?

What does that have to do with my statement? You said you could see Vick being taken 1st in a 6 pt passing TD format but not in other formats. I'm pointing out that Vick EASILY has more value in a 4 pt passing TD league. I'll let you think about why.As for your 2nd irrelevant question to the above, yes, he's more valuable than a RB1 if he's outscoring the #2 QB by as much as he is now. The difference between them is significantly larger than the difference between RB1 and RB2. It's VBD.

my thinking is I wouldn't take a QB over an RB in the first round unless it was a 6 pt passing TD league, in other formats I can get a stronger more consistent combo of Rivers (drafted later) and RB 1.1 than I can with Vick and RB 2.12. I'm playing the odds of both positions becoming strong contributing options.

 

[jackdubl]

That's basically what I said in post 86. It's a heck of a lot easier to find a QB to plug in later in the season then it is a RB. It's better to have the stud RB and a low 1st tier or 2nd tier QB. (For 2011 I'd consider Vick, Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Peyton, and Rivers as 1st tier, 2nd tier would be any other QB not on the Browns, Raiders, 49ers, Panthers, or cardinals).

No it isn't.

2009 keeper league - drafted Ray Rice in 5th rd2010 keeper league - drafted Arian Foster in the 3rd rd and Phillip Rivers in the 2nd rd(as the final tier 1 QB)

IMO, it's way easier to find a quality RB in rounds 3-5 than a quality QB. Even Bloom had to finally admit it, QB by committee is NOT the winning approach. The traditional reason you don't take a QB early is that you can get a comparable one later, and that is still true. But you will rarely find a later QB who can blow up the way RBs do. Over the last two years: Charles, Hillis, Foster, Rice, Forte, McFadden, BJGE, etc... - name any QB you could have taken or picked up late that would have been a better deal than getting one of these guys later. RB is historically the easiest position to fill during a season.

 

[thehornet]

That's basically what I said in post 86. It's a heck of a lot easier to find a QB to plug in later in the season then it is a RB. It's better to have the stud RB and a low 1st tier or 2nd tier QB. (For 2011 I'd consider Vick, Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Peyton, and Rivers as 1st tier, 2nd tier would be any other QB not on the Browns, Raiders, 49ers, Panthers, or cardinals).

No it isn't.

2009 keeper league - drafted Ray Rice in 5th rd2010 keeper league - drafted Arian Foster in the 3rd rd and Phillip Rivers in the 2nd rd(as the final tier 1 QB)

IMO, it's way easier to find a quality RB in rounds 3-5 than a quality QB. Even Bloom had to finally admit it, QB by committee is NOT the winning approach. The traditional reason you don't take a QB early is that you can get a comparable one later, and that is still true. But you will rarely find a later QB who can blow up the way RBs do. Over the last two years: Charles, Hillis, Foster, Rice, Forte, McFadden, BJGE, etc... - name any QB you could have taken or picked up late that would have been a better deal than getting one of these guys later. RB is historically the easiest position to fill during a season.

you are talking baout something completely different. See bolded above.

 

[flc735]

here is an example:

peyton- might fall to 2.12 in 2011

rivers - was available at 2.12 in 2010

charles/bradshaw- you should be able to get one of these guys at 2.12 in 2011

so im giving peyton/rivers the qb value of the 2.12 pick and charles/bradshaw the rb value at the 2.12 pick

in ppr

AP + peyton/rivers

gave you about 43 ppg

vick + charles/bradshaw (rb's you could get at 2.12 if your lucky)

gave you about 49 ppg

i took out APs week 14 game and vicks week 4 game

so there you are, if all players preform the same, vick gives you a 6 ppg advantage

in other words, vick would have to average about 6 ppg less next year to make this a wash

charles will probably be gone by the 10th pick in 2011. At pick 2.12 you're looking at the RB15 range which would be Steven Jackson territory.

ok, putting sjax in there you'll get vick+sjax = about 47 ppg. still an advantage for vick

 

[jackdubl]

That's basically what I said in post 86. It's a heck of a lot easier to find a QB to plug in later in the season then it is a RB. It's better to have the stud RB and a low 1st tier or 2nd tier QB. (For 2011 I'd consider Vick, Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Peyton, and Rivers as 1st tier, 2nd tier would be any other QB not on the Browns, Raiders, 49ers, Panthers, or cardinals).

No it isn't.

2009 keeper league - drafted Ray Rice in 5th rd2010 keeper league - drafted Arian Foster in the 3rd rd and Phillip Rivers in the 2nd rd(as the final tier 1 QB)

IMO, it's way easier to find a quality RB in rounds 3-5 than a quality QB. Even Bloom had to finally admit it, QB by committee is NOT the winning approach. The traditional reason you don't take a QB early is that you can get a comparable one later, and that is still true. But you will rarely find a later QB who can blow up the way RBs do. Over the last two years: Charles, Hillis, Foster, Rice, Forte, McFadden, BJGE, etc... - name any QB you could have taken or picked up late that would have been a better deal than getting one of these guys later. RB is historically the easiest position to fill during a season.

you are talking baout something completely different. See bolded above.

What'd I miss?

 

[thehornet]

That's basically what I said in post 86. It's a heck of a lot easier to find a QB to plug in later in the season then it is a RB. It's better to have the stud RB and a low 1st tier or 2nd tier QB. (For 2011 I'd consider Vick, Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Peyton, and Rivers as 1st tier, 2nd tier would be any other QB not on the Browns, Raiders, 49ers, Panthers, or cardinals).

No it isn't.

2009 keeper league - drafted Ray Rice in 5th rd2010 keeper league - drafted Arian Foster in the 3rd rd and Phillip Rivers in the 2nd rd(as the final tier 1 QB)

IMO, it's way easier to find a quality RB in rounds 3-5 than a quality QB. Even Bloom had to finally admit it, QB by committee is NOT the winning approach. The traditional reason you don't take a QB early is that you can get a comparable one later, and that is still true. But you will rarely find a later QB who can blow up the way RBs do. Over the last two years: Charles, Hillis, Foster, Rice, Forte, McFadden, BJGE, etc... - name any QB you could have taken or picked up late that would have been a better deal than getting one of these guys later. RB is historically the easiest position to fill during a season.

you are talking baout something completely different. See bolded above.

What'd I miss?

You are talking about finding quality rb's later in the draft and I commented that it isn't easier to find a fill in QB later in the season than it is to find a rb

 

[KellysHeroes]

I think Darren McFadden should be in the conversation as well.

I think you don;t want to win your league.

Nothing wrong with conversing. Taking him #1 is another matter.

I could see taking him after ADP and CJ, I rather DMC than Ray Rice or Jones Drew

 

[KellysHeroes]

I bet Minny once again acquires an Vet QB, McNabb most likey

 

[jackdubl]

What'd I miss?

You are talking about finding quality rb's later in the draft and I commented that it isn't easier to find a fill in RB later in the season than it is to find a qb.

Ok. I was actually addressing both. Charles was a WW pickup last year, Hillis and BJGE were this year. You won't find a QB to pickup that will outproduce those guys. If you scour the WW from season start to finish, you will have much better oppurtunities at RB than QB. This is due to the frequency of RB injuries and also because it's easy for a backup RB to produce at a high level. If you need a guy to fill in last minute, then yes, you can always find a QB to plug in and rarely a RB.

 

[thehornet]

What'd I miss?

You are talking about finding quality rb's later in the draft and I commented that it isn't easier to find a fill in RB later in the season than it is to find a qb.

Ok. I was actually addressing both. Charles was a WW pickup last year, Hillis and BJGE were this year. You won't find a QB to pickup that will outproduce those guys. If you scour the WW from season start to finish, you will have much better oppurtunities at RB than QB. This is due to the frequency of RB injuries and also because it's easy for a backup RB to produce at a high level, but rarely a backup QB. If you need a guy to fill in last minute, then yes, you can always find a QB to plug in and rarely a RB.

i hear what you are sayinh.I actually wrote that backwards. I do not thin it is is easier to find a qb at this time of the year than a rb. I mean some guys are starting webb, tebow and troy smith right now. i can find a better fill in rb right now than those qb options.sorry to sidetrack the thread.

 

[Banger]

Some people still dont get it on vick. If he stays in Philly he is EASILY the number 1 overall pick. The next player isn't even close.

6 pt passing TD formats I could see this. In other formats I love people who take QB the first round while I go RB.

I long been against taking a QB in the 1st or early 2nd Round and this past year gave me a great example as to why you shouldnt....In my 12 team redraft league where all tds are 6pts... Manning, Brady, Rodgers and Brees all went towards the back end of the 1st Round of this past years draft.... some owners were going with the "safe" pick since so many question marks surround the 1st round last year.NOT ONE TEAM selecting a QB in Rd 1 made the playoffs....very telling in my opinion.I do not think Vick would be the exception to this rule..... part of Vicks value this year is were owners acquired him...Free Agent most likely.I'll take Peterson as #1 overall and pair him with a QB value in the 3rd or 4th Round..... guys like Manning, Romo, Rodgers may slide over taking Vick #1 and hoping on a #1 RB in the start of Round 2 is still there.

If he were the #1 pick this year he would be the best value outside of maybe Foster. Don't get caught in a trap of following the herd, I've been very successful in my big money league for years by bucking "conventional wisdom". If scarcity and value dictate great value based on your scoring system who cares what anyone else does?I haven't protected a QB in over a decade in my keeper league but there's no doubt that he would be my #1 keeper this year. You have to change your strategies as player's values changes. To treat Vick like other QBs is a mistake IMO because he's become a good/very good QB but is also a RB1/2. Prorating Vicks rushing stats alone put him at around 1,000 yards and 12.8 TDs. Vicks value was based on the fact that he crushed every other player at his position by a WIDE margin...he was the Gates of QBs (a much more valuable position).

 

[Steel Town]

I would vote for Vick. And for those claiming that you shouldn't draft a QB with the #1 overall pick - I will say the exception is when you have a guy that produces like a QB1 and a RB1 simultaneously. The rush yards make him almost a no-brainer #1 pick.

How is Vick and QB1 AND a RB1 simultaneously? His rushing yards is what makes him a QB1. He has 613 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns this year in 11 games. That's an average of 55.7 yards and .72 touchdowns a week. That is not a RB1. Just counting Vick's rushing yards would put him tied for 24th amoung RB's with a 9.9 weekly average. That's barely RB2. If you just count his passing stats he's probably about 8th in passing points per week. Add them up he's definitely a QB1 but seperately he's an average QB1 and a low end RB2.

Maybe not exactly simultaneously, but his passing stats on their face make him a QB1 - meaning that his stats should make him in the top 12. Just looking at 2010 stats, his passing touchdowns (20) are in line with guys like Freeman/Cutler/Roethlisberger. All of them are QB1's, at least in my book. Looking at yardage (2755), he is on par with guys like Cassel/Garrard/Freeman/Cutler - again, all guys that could easily be starting for fantasy owners any week of the season, including this week. So, without rushing yards - the guy is legitimately top 12.When you consider his rushing stats, you can make the same argument as above. Looking at his rushing yards (613), he is comparable to guys like Forte/Moreno/LT/BJGE. These guys probably aren't true rb1 material, but legitimate rb2 for some owners. Factor in rushing touchdowns (8) and he is in stride with or above guys like, Ray Rice/MJD/SJax/Gore. All of those guys have less rushing/receiving touchdowns than Vick has rushing touchdowns. In retrospect, you don't get a QB1/RB1 in one player with Vick. You do get a QB1/RB2 in one player and you can't say that about anyone else.....I came along way to say - Vick is good - damn good, and I wouldn't be surprised to see anyone take him with the #1 pick next year.

 

[heidbrink]

...What I REALLY learned from this thread is that there will be more value in the first round (and 2nd) than in many years. ...

No doubt. The talent pool seems deeper than ever. I'm kicking around trading out of the first completely next year.

 

[Utter Chaos]

What'd I miss?

You are talking about finding quality rb's later in the draft and I commented that it isn't easier to find a fill in RB later in the season than it is to find a qb.

Ok. I was actually addressing both. Charles was a WW pickup last year, Hillis and BJGE were this year. You won't find a QB to pickup that will outproduce those guys. If you scour the WW from season start to finish, you will have much better oppurtunities at RB than QB. This is due to the frequency of RB injuries and also because it's easy for a backup RB to produce at a high level. If you need a guy to fill in last minute, then yes, you can always find a QB to plug in and rarely a RB.

In my league Micheal Vick was a free agent and I drafted Hillis. Years ago Kurt Warner and Tom Brady were a free agents. Other free agent QBs in 2010 that helped teams were Jon Kitna, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Shaun Hill, Josh Freeman, and David Garrard. For every Jamal charles and BGJE there's also plenty of Keiland Williams, James Starks, Mike Harts, Lawrence Maroneys, Deji Karim, Julius Jones, Javarris James, etc.It's easier to fill in for your QB after the draft than it is a RB. Sure, you're may get lucky sometimes but for the most part finding a QB is easier. Say you have the 5th rated QB and he goes down (Tony Romo for example). Since most fantasy teams carry two QB's there's about 24 to 27 QB's rostered in a 12 team league. That means there's at least 5 starting QB's you can pick up and recoup some of those points. Now you lose your 5th rated RB (Frank Gore for example). Most teams have about 4 RB so there's 48 running backs rostered. That doesn't leave a lot of choices.I'd be willing to bet if you go back 10 years you'll find more free agent QB's in the top 10 at their position than you would RBs.

 

[gianmarco]

6 pt passing TD formats I could see this. In other formats I love people who take QB the first round while I go RB.

Vick is more valuable in 4 pt passing TD formats. HTH.

move valuable than an RB1?

What does that have to do with my statement? You said you could see Vick being taken 1st in a 6 pt passing TD format but not in other formats. I'm pointing out that Vick EASILY has more value in a 4 pt passing TD league. I'll let you think about why.As for your 2nd irrelevant question to the above, yes, he's more valuable than a RB1 if he's outscoring the #2 QB by as much as he is now. The difference between them is significantly larger than the difference between RB1 and RB2. It's VBD.

my thinking is I wouldn't take a QB over an RB in the first round unless it was a 6 pt passing TD league, in other formats I can get a stronger more consistent combo of Rivers (drafted later) and RB 1.1 than I can with Vick and RB 2.12. I'm playing the odds of both positions becoming strong contributing options.

I understand your thinking. Unfortunately, it's incorrect. If you would take Vick in the 1st round in a 6 pt passing TD league, then you should DEFINITELY take him in the 1st round in a 4 pt passing TD league. I don't think you understand why that is so I'll help out.Michael Vick already has 8 rushing TDs. That's double the next QB (Rodgers, Garrard, Tebow). The thing is, those rushing TDs are part of what makes Vick so valuable. In a 4 pt passing TD league, Vick's rushing TDs are counting as 6 pts each and help inflate his value compared to other QBs. Vick is never going to throw as many passing TDs as Manning/Brady/Rivers/Brees. Thus, if you decrease the amount that those other QBs are getting for their increased passing TDs compared to the amount Vick gets for his rushing TDs, that in turn makes Vick that much more valuable. If all TDs are 6 pts, then it's just a matter of total TDs and it evens the playing field. It matters not how much QBs score vs. other positions. It matters how QBs score compared to their peers. If you make passing TDs worth 20 pts each it doesn't make QB more important because they score more compared to RB or WR. It makes QB more important because it's only going to magnify the difference between a QB like Brady/Brees compared to Jason Campbell or even a "decent" QB like Flacco. So, what you're looking for when looking at taking a QB that high is if he's going to outdistance himself from his peers. A 4 pt passing TD league benefits Vick more than a 6 pt passing TD league because the latter negates part of his rushing advantage he holds over all other QBs. Thus, if you consider him in the 1st round in a 6 pt passing TD league, you should consider him even more in a 4 pt passing TD league.

 

[Steel Town]

my thinking is I wouldn't take a QB over an RB in the first round unless it was a 6 pt passing TD league, in other formats I can get a stronger more consistent combo of Rivers (drafted later) and RB 1.1 than I can with Vick and RB 2.12. I'm playing the odds of both positions becoming strong contributing options.

I understand your thinking. Unfortunately, it's incorrect. If you would take Vick in the 1st round in a 6 pt passing TD league, then you should DEFINITELY take him in the 1st round in a 4 pt passing TD league. I don't think you understand why that is so I'll help out.

Michael Vick already has 8 rushing TDs. That's double the next QB (Rodgers, Garrard, Tebow). The thing is, those rushing TDs are part of what makes Vick so valuable. In a 4 pt passing TD league, Vick's rushing TDs are counting as 6 pts each and help inflate his value compared to other QBs. Vick is never going to throw as many passing TDs as Manning/Brady/Rivers/Brees. Thus, if you decrease the amount that those other QBs are getting for their increased passing TDs compared to the amount Vick gets for his rushing TDs, that in turn makes Vick that much more valuable. If all TDs are 6 pts, then it's just a matter of total TDs and it evens the playing field.

It matters not how much QBs score vs. other positions. It matters how QBs score compared to their peers. If you make passing TDs worth 20 pts each it doesn't make QB more important because they score more compared to RB or WR. It makes QB more important because it's only going to magnify the difference between a QB like Brady/Brees compared to Jason Campbell or even a "decent" QB like Flacco. So, what you're looking for when looking at taking a QB that high is if he's going to outdistance himself from his peers. A 4 pt passing TD league benefits Vick more than a 6 pt passing TD league because the latter negates part of his rushing advantage he holds over all other QBs. Thus, if you consider him in the 1st round in a 6 pt passing TD league, you should consider him even more in a 4 pt passing TD league.

..... Very

 

[Banger]

What'd I miss?

You are talking about finding quality rb's later in the draft and I commented that it isn't easier to find a fill in RB later in the season than it is to find a qb.

Ok. I was actually addressing both. Charles was a WW pickup last year, Hillis and BJGE were this year. You won't find a QB to pickup that will outproduce those guys. If you scour the WW from season start to finish, you will have much better oppurtunities at RB than QB. This is due to the frequency of RB injuries and also because it's easy for a backup RB to produce at a high level. If you need a guy to fill in last minute, then yes, you can always find a QB to plug in and rarely a RB.

In my league Micheal Vick was a free agent and I drafted Hillis. Years ago Kurt Warner and Tom Brady were a free agents. Other free agent QBs in 2010 that helped teams were Jon Kitna, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Shaun Hill, Josh Freeman, and David Garrard. For every Jamal charles and BGJE there's also plenty of Keiland Williams, James Starks, Mike Harts, Lawrence Maroneys, Deji Karim, Julius Jones, Javarris James, etc.It's easier to fill in for your QB after the draft than it is a RB. Sure, you're may get lucky sometimes but for the most part finding a QB is easier. Say you have the 5th rated QB and he goes down (Tony Romo for example). Since most fantasy teams carry two QB's there's about 24 to 27 QB's rostered in a 12 team league. That means there's at least 5 starting QB's you can pick up and recoup some of those points. Now you lose your 5th rated RB (Frank Gore for example). Most teams have about 4 RB so there's 48 running backs rostered. That doesn't leave a lot of choices.I'd be willing to bet if you go back 10 years you'll find more free agent QB's in the top 10 at their position than you would RBs.

I don't know, this year you could have found Blount, Tolbert, BGJE, Hillis (in some leagues), Ivory, Fred Jackson, Brandon Jackson, Lynch, Woodhead, Torrain, and I'm sure there are others that I'm missing.

 

[Utter Chaos]

What'd I miss?

You are talking about finding quality rb's later in the draft and I commented that it isn't easier to find a fill in RB later in the season than it is to find a qb.

Ok. I was actually addressing both. Charles was a WW pickup last year, Hillis and BJGE were this year. You won't find a QB to pickup that will outproduce those guys. If you scour the WW from season start to finish, you will have much better oppurtunities at RB than QB. This is due to the frequency of RB injuries and also because it's easy for a backup RB to produce at a high level. If you need a guy to fill in last minute, then yes, you can always find a QB to plug in and rarely a RB.

In my league Micheal Vick was a free agent and I drafted Hillis. Years ago Kurt Warner and Tom Brady were a free agents. Other free agent QBs in 2010 that helped teams were Jon Kitna, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Shaun Hill, Josh Freeman, and David Garrard. For every Jamal charles and BGJE there's also plenty of Keiland Williams, James Starks, Mike Harts, Lawrence Maroneys, Deji Karim, Julius Jones, Javarris James, etc.It's easier to fill in for your QB after the draft than it is a RB. Sure, you're may get lucky sometimes but for the most part finding a QB is easier. Say you have the 5th rated QB and he goes down (Tony Romo for example). Since most fantasy teams carry two QB's there's about 24 to 27 QB's rostered in a 12 team league. That means there's at least 5 starting QB's you can pick up and recoup some of those points. Now you lose your 5th rated RB (Frank Gore for example). Most teams have about 4 RB so there's 48 running backs rostered. That doesn't leave a lot of choices.I'd be willing to bet if you go back 10 years you'll find more free agent QB's in the top 10 at their position than you would RBs.

I don't know, this year you could have found Blount, Tolbert, BGJE, Hillis (in some leagues), Ivory, Fred Jackson, Brandon Jackson, Lynch, Woodhead, Torrain, and I'm sure there are others that I'm missing.

And how many of those are in the top 10 (or even top 20 for that matter)?In my second league using average points per week:QB: Vick (1), Stafford (7), Fitzpatrick (9), Garrard (17), Kitna (18), Freeman (19), Hill (20)RB: Hillis (4), Torrain (16), Tolbert (20)