1st Pick in 12-team PPR (or half): What's Your Strategy? (1 Viewer)

[ATB]

Couldn't find a thread already started for those with the 1st pick in upcoming drafts. 

Anyone want to discuss strategy?

Personally, I find myself really unsure of what to do at the 2/3 turn. I've done a number of mocks and here's what I've learned so far:

I feel really thin at WR when I decide to snag a top QB or TE or both early. What seems to create a stronger team is going RB-WR-WR-RB (obviously depending on the flow of your particular draft). I find myself often taking CMC-Robinson-Parker-Conner/Gordon. That feels really solid to me and then I just snag best player from there but focus more on backup WRs and aim for Gibson and Kelley at the end of the draft as I feel good about theirs situations and talent.

I make sure to pay attention to the flow of the draft so I can try to get one of Wilson/Prescott/Murray in the middle of the draft or, if I miss on those, make sure to snag one of Allen/Wentz/Newton in the last few rounds. 

Personally, I think I'm just going to be content with gambling on a breakout TE this year. I would love to have Kelce or Kittle but I don't want to be thin at other positions to do so. Plus I feel really good about either Hockenson or Fant hitting their second-year stride. 

 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four]

CMC #1 for me. No shocker. 2/3 turn I love taking a TE, usually Kittle and best player available whether it be a RB, WR, or QB. I know many will say taking both QB and TE early is not a viable strategy but knowing I get a big advantage at TE and/or QB puts it over the top for me.

CMC

Kittle/Kelce

Mahomes/Jackson

Is very appealing to me.

 

[ATB]

CMC #1 for me. No shocker. 2/3 turn I love taking a TE, usually Kittle and best player available whether it be a RB, WR, or QB. I know many will say taking both QB and TE early is not a viable strategy but knowing I get a big advantage at TE and/or QB puts it over the top for me.

CMC

Kittle/Kelce

Mahomes/Jackson

Is very appealing to me.

Yeah, that was my first thought when I landed the first pick, but I tried quite a few drafts with this strategy and I felt really thin at WR/RB after that, especially at WR. 

The main problem is that you can't know for sure what will fall to you and sometimes you end up completely screwed at WR after those first three rounds. 

 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four]

Yeah, that was my first thought when I landed the first pick, but I tried quite a few drafts with this strategy and I felt really thin at WR/RB after that, especially at WR. 

The main problem is that you can't know for sure what will fall to you and sometimes you end up completely screwed at WR after those first three rounds. 

I think I feel successful in this draft strategy for a few reasons. One, I like some of the later WR options more than some. Two, most of my leagues are start 2 receivers not three. And three, Im of the mindset that things change so much week to week that even with holes in your team you can find guys to fill in and give you adequate points. Play the matchups. But I get that drafting one or two of an early QB / TE is not for everyone.

 

[ATB]

I think I feel successful in this draft strategy for a few reasons. One, I like some of the later WR options more than some. Two, most of my leagues are start 2 receivers not three. And three, Im of the mindset that things change so much week to week that even with holes in your team you can find guys to fill in and give you adequate points. Play the matchups. But I get that drafting one or two of an early QB / TE is not for everyone.

Well, you have me rethinking this a little bit now. That's a good point on how you have to play the waiver wire week to week anyway, and I would much rather play the wire with RB/WR than with QB/TE because those latter two categories seem to be thinner on the wire because guys tend to hoard those positions and/or stream them. 

I think I'll try some mocks going RB-QB-WR-WR/RB and see what happens.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I just drafted from there Friday night. 12 man pr

I went CMC- Evans, J.Conner, K.Allen, Z.Ertz, Brady, D.Johnson.

In my league the top 2 QBs and top 2 TEs were gone by my 2/3 turn. Happy with Ertz a turn later because I like having elite TE in that league

just my .02

 

[Gally]

I just drafted from there Friday night. 12 man pr

I went CMC- Evans, J.Conner, K.Allen, Z.Ertz, Brady, D.Johnson.

In my league the top 2 QBs and top 2 TEs were gone by my 2/3 turn. Happy with Ertz a turn later because I like having elite TE in that league

just my .02

That is a good reminder not to get tied into positions.  I find it best to use my combined draft board and take BPA when my slot comes up.  Getting tied up with I gotta take a RB here or there usually is a recipe for missing out on great value based on how each draft unfolds.  There is no one size fits all and trying to force something never seems to work well. 

 

[MAC_32]

CMC #1 for me. No shocker. 2/3 turn I love taking a TE, usually Kittle and best player available whether it be a RB, WR, or QB. I know many will say taking both QB and TE early is not a viable strategy but knowing I get a big advantage at TE and/or QB puts it over the top for me.

CMC

Kittle/Kelce

Mahomes/Jackson

Is very appealing to me.

3.1 is not a good spot for wr. You miss the elite tier and the options available aren't much different than the middle of the 4th guys that won't fall to your pick. I won't talk someone off this strategy if they fall.

 

[kyoun1e]

If I had the #1 pick there is no question I would try and go:

1) CMC

2) Kittle/Kelce

3) Mahommes

You would have the top ranked player at three positions. 

Then draft your ### off.

And then manage your waiver wire ### off.

 

[The Stench of Death]

I just had a draft at #1 in a 12-team full PPR (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 FLEX), so I'll share how it went, hopefully this helps, especially as it pertains to going WR/WR in the 2nd/3rd.  The one "issue" is that it's a keeper league (1 keeper) so Kenyan Drake, Derrick Henry, Miles Sanders, and Lamar Jackson were all unavailable in this draft, which skews the early picks a bit in terms of player availability.  Those four and Devin Singletary (me) were the only 5 players kept.  Less of a factor in the later rounds.

1 - McCaffrey

2/3 - Kittle and Kelce as well as Mahomes were all taken (Mahomes at 2.11 just as I was ready to pull the trigger.)  I took Evans and Allen Robinson over the available RBs (Gordon, Carson, Gurley and Fournette) as I had a feeling WRs would fly off the board the next 24 picks.

4/5 - 13 more receivers went in rounds 3 & 4.  Had a choice of David Johnson, Mark Ingram, LeVeon Bell and Kareem Hunt here and took Johnson.  Rather than take another back (as I already also have Singletary as a keeper,) I took DK Metcalf in the 5th to round out my WRs.  Woods, Lockett, Ridley, Allen, Kupp, Chark, Thielen, and McLaurin all gone.  Choice was basically between Metcalf, Sutton, Parker, Hilton, Diggs, and the Cincy WRs, all of whom went in the 5th/6th along with Gallup, Landry and Fuller.

6/7 - Was thinking about QB here but Prescott, Murray, Wilson and Brees (?) all went in the 6th.  Ertz, Andrews, Higbee, Jared Cook, Hunter Henry and Gronk also had been picked (what?) and Darren Waller was still there, so I jumped on him.  Wanted to go WR in the 7th, but De'Andre Swift was still hanging around and presented the best value, so I took him.

8/9 - WRs have been picked over for the most part and I didn't like the value here, so was forced to go elsewhere again.  James White was clearly my highest rated player available, so I went for a 5th RB.  Ryan was the only QB plucked since my last set of picks, so I was happy to find Deshaun Watson sitting there and took him at 9.1 (QB8)

10/11 - Desperately needing receiver, I was zeroed in on Deebo Samuel, but the same guy that snaked Mahomes a pick ahead of me took him at 10.11.  Pickings were fairly slim, so I took two upside and pray guys in Mecole Hardman and Preston Williams.

12/13 - Wanted to go receiver here and only had 1 pick because my 13th was spent to keep Singletary.  Took Roethlisberger instead of a WR because he was my 13th ranked QB and I sensed a backup QB run coming (wisely - 8 QBs went in the 13th and 14th rounds and I would have had Garoppolo or Minshew as my backup.)

14/15 - took Lutz as K3 (kickers have decent value in our scoring) and Sammy Watkins as "Hardman insurance."

16/17 - Ebron as backup TE and New England DST

18 - Flyer here for keeper potential, wanted Bryce Love, but he went in the 17th, so I took Claypool from Pittsburgh as he could establish himself as a threat for next year if the camp reports are true, so if he pans out, I could keep him next year for a 16th rounder.

QB - Deshaun Watson, Roethlisberger

RB - McCaffrey, David Johnson, Singletary, Swift, White

WR - Evans, A. Robinson, Metcalf, Hardman, Preston Williams, Watkins, Claypool

TE - Waller, Ebron

K - Lutz

DST - New England

Overall, I think a pretty solid team.  Good upside scoring potential with solid depth at QB and RB.  WR depth is weak and I'd be throwing darts when bye weeks hit or if injuries to my top 3 occur, but WR seems to be the easiest position to find quality on the wire typically.  McLaurin and AJ Brown were undrafted last year and there are still a few guys out there right now that could be fill-ins if my drafted guys don't pan out.  Also have an opportunity to trade from my depth at RB (5 top-30 guys in a 12-team league is nice) to get another playable WR if necessary.

 

[ATB]

If I had the #1 pick there is no question I would try and go:

1) CMC

2) Kittle/Kelce

3) Mahommes

You would have the top ranked player at three positions. 

Then draft your ### off.

And then manage your waiver wire ### off.

This was my first instinct too. I didn't love my final roster when I mocked but maybe that's just because a lot my later picks have to be hidden gems and you can't know if they'll hit until a few weeks into the season. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Such a luxury to have back for back at the 24-25 spot. 

Impossible to know who’s gonna be there, but CMC/Drake/ARob or CMC/ARob/Golladay or CMC/Kittle/MEvans is an awfully nice way to start a team. 

Value will fall to you at 1 so you have to be flexible enough to take advantage of it. 

Personally, i would probably try to have 3 RBs in my first 5 picks. If a RB I love isn’t on the board at the 2/3 turn, I likely grab WR/WR IR TE/WR the plan on back to back RBs 4/5. 

the challenge with that strategy is if you have savvy owners at 2-3 they’re gonna scoop up RBs on the even rounds because you’ve made yourself somewhat predictable gong into the 4th with only CMC. Picking 1.03 on Friday & every round I’ll be looking at the draft board to see what picks 1-2 need. More and more when mocking, I find myself “reaching” slightly for the RB (Hunt/RoJo/maybe Taylor) at 4.10 because the turn always seems to need one. There are usually 4-5 WRs I like there, but that’s about the end of a tier of RBs that I see a steep decline afterwards. 

That’s why you should probably hope a decent RB comes to you at 2.12. I wouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger on a Drake. So if you go RB/RB/WR it’s harder for the 2-3 spots to anticipate your picks. 

 

[barackdhouse]

My strategy from the 1 spot?

To crush my enemies, to see them driven before me, and to hear the lamentations of their women.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

My strategy from the 1 spot?

To crush my enemies, to see them driven before me, and to hear the lamentations of their women.

Ease up there Conan. If you’re not wearing leather wristbands, you may not draft like this. That’s not just a good idea, it’s the law. 

 

[barackdhouse]

Ease up there Conan. If you’re not wearing leather wristbands, you may not draft like this. That’s not just a good idea, it’s the law. 

I've had an embarrassingly high number of #1 slot draws. Hopefully I don't squander them. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I've had an embarrassingly high number of #1 slot draws. Hopefully I don't squander them. 

Drafting 1.03 my entire goal is to screw the guys at 1.01-1.02 every even round. 

If a value pick falls it is 10000% my job to be the stopper, scooping up every even round value player who’s dropped past their ADP. 

i hope to frustrate the 1-2 so much it throws off their entire draft.

And maybe build myself a decent team as well, as a secondary goal.  

 

[barackdhouse]

Such a luxury to have back for back at the 24-25 spot. 

Impossible to know who’s gonna be there, but CMC/Drake/ARob or CMC/ARob/Golladay or CMC/Kittle/MEvans is an awfully nice way to start a team. 

Close to this:

LAMAR

CMC

HUNT

EVANS

METCALF

SLAYTON

PITTMAN

FANT

LEGATRON

KC

BROWNS

DOBBINS

GIBSON

AP

HINES

AIYUK

HARRY

HERNDON

EBRON

MINSHEW

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Close to this:

LAMAR

CMC

EVANS

It’s a heck of a start to a team for sure. 

 

[ATB]

That your target list, @barackdhouse?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That your target list, @barackdhouse?

I think it's a team he drafted. 

 

[kutta]

In my draft over the weekend I had the 1.01 and took CMC.

At the 2-3 turn, Lamar, Mahomes, Kelce, and Kittle were all gone. I took Golladay and Godwin and was VERY happy.

I didn’t like many of the RB’s at the 4-5 turn, and I felt I had a great start to my WR corps, so I took Waller and Kyler Murray here.

I filled in my drafts with Kerryon, Moss, Akers, and Henderson at RB, and Fuller at WR.

I won’t list more than that, but overall, I’m really happy with this team. I just need that RB 2 spot to hit with one of those guys.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

I play in a redraft PPR where QB TD = 6.  I had the first pick and tried to trade down with no reasonable offers - so I went with Mahomes at one and was then able to come back with Beckham and Golloday (zero RB strategy unfortunately).  Wound up with Ekeler and Chubb as my RBs.  If Mahomes replicates last year I hit a home run - if he drops off I am screwed.

 

[Gally]

Drafting 1.03 my entire goal is to screw the guys at 1.01-1.02 every even round. 

If a value pick falls it is 10000% my job to be the stopper, scooping up every even round value player who’s dropped past their ADP. 

i hope to frustrate the 1-2 so much it throws off their entire draft.

And maybe build myself a decent team as well, as a secondary goal.  

This right here is the crux of fantasy football drafting but not necessarily in the intended way as listed above.  The crux is knowing where that value is regardless of ADP.  Just because ADP says a guys is 2.4 and you are getting him at 3.01 doesn't mean it's the right thing to do if the guy is no good.  Don't be a slave to ADP and figure out your own values.  Figuring out this nuance is key to a good draft. 

There are many times I have seen an ADP "value" and let him go hoping that those after me will take him because I don't think the guy is going to match his drafted value (even though it is an ADP value).  This allows worse players to be taken and gives me a better player after that. 

 

[Gally]

I play in a redraft PPR where QB TD = 6.  I had the first pick and tried to trade down with no reasonable offers - so I went with Mahomes at one and was then able to come back with Beckham and Golloday (zero RB strategy unfortunately).  Wound up with Ekeler and Chubb as my RBs.  If Mahomes replicates last year I hit a home run - if he drops off I am screwed.

I don't think 6 pt QB TD's elevates the QB position with respect to other positions because it is still relative to the other QB's.  That doesn't change.  The only thing this does is hurt the running QB's because they don't get the rush TD advantage.  I wouldn't take Mahomes 1.01 just because passing TD's are 6 pts. 

As a question though, if you took Mahomes (1.01), OBJ (2.12), and Golladay (3.01) how in the heck did Chubb fall to 4.12 or 5.01?  That seems like terrible drafting by your league mates. 

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

I don't think 6 pt QB TD's elevates the QB position with respect to other positions because it is still relative to the other QB's.  That doesn't change.  The only thing this does is hurt the running QB's because they don't get the rush TD advantage.  I wouldn't take Mahomes 1.01 just because passing TD's are 6 pts. 

As a question though, if you took Mahomes (1.01), OBJ (2.12), and Golladay (3.01) how in the heck did Chubb fall to 4.12 or 5.01?  That seems like terrible drafting by your league mates. 

Lot of table talk at the draft around Kareem Hunt so he was left untouched.  Out league seems to be heavily weighted to WRs over RBs for some reason.

Honestly I was going to take CMC at 1.01.  But just had a gnawing feeling that he is going to return to earth this year and Mahomes will outstrip every other QB not named Lamar Jackson by a substantial amount.  Mixon also went later than expected in our draft but I just missed him when I took Chubb.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This right here is the crux of fantasy football drafting but not necessarily in the intended way as listed above.  The crux is knowing where that value is regardless of ADP.  Just because ADP says a guys is 2.4 and you are getting him at 3.01 doesn't mean it's the right thing to do if the guy is no good.  Don't be a slave to ADP and figure out your own values.  Figuring out this nuance is key to a good draft. 

Yes, clearly - that's why I said "value" as well as ADP. Everyone values every player differently - I mean I will take players I consider the values, not be a mindless zombie clicking a guy who's ADP is way too high. 

There are many times I have seen an ADP "value" and let him go hoping that those after me will take him because I don't think the guy is going to match his drafted value (even though it is an ADP value).  This allows worse players to be taken and gives me a better player after that. 

For sure. No question - we are 100% in agreement on this. 

 

[IHEARTFF]

CMC 

Conner

Lamar/bpa

 

[jm192]

I've been mocking it on Yahoo as one of my main redraft leagues is Friday with me picking 1st.

Seems to always fall

1.  CMC

2.  Conner

3.  OBJ/Evans.  

Kelce/Kittle aren't falling.  Mahommes/Jackson are, but I'm still iffy on going QB there.  Will mock it up a few times and see how the teams fall.

 

[jm192]

1.  CMC

2.  Kittle

3.  Mahommes

4.  Sutton

5.  Mostert

6.  Montgomery

7.  TY Hilton

Don't love it.  The RB's were bare when it got back to me.  

 

[kutta]

Lot of table talk at the draft around Kareem Hunt so he was left untouched.  Out league seems to be heavily weighted to WRs over RBs for some reason.

Honestly I was going to take CMC at 1.01.  But just had a gnawing feeling that he is going to return to earth this year and Mahomes will outstrip every other QB not named Lamar Jackson by a substantial amount.  Mixon also went later than expected in our draft but I just missed him when I took Chubb.

So Mixon, Chubb, and Ekeler all went at the end of the 4th or early 5th? That is just insane. All those guys are round 1-2 picks.

So, yes, if you can get Chubb and Ekeler in rounds 4-5, you should take Mahomes in the first.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

So Mixon, Chubb, and Ekeler all went at the end of the 4th or early 5th? That is just insane. All those guys are round 1-2 picks.

So, yes, if you can get Chubb and Ekeler in rounds 4-5, you should take Mahomes in the first.

File that under N for things that will never happen in any league other than maybe that person’s. 

been mocking like crazy the last few days & Eke & Chubb are gone by 2.10

one mock of ~50 Chubb made it. Never Eke

 

[barackdhouse]

I think it's a team he drafted. 

It is, from a couple months ago

 

[jm192]

Had 1 just fall

1.  CMC

2.  Sanders

3.  Hopkins

4.  Sutton

5.  Akers

6.  Montgomery

7.  Matt Ryan

I'm here for it.