cstu
Footballguy
I decided to do a study on WR's and when they tend to breakout - or fail to ever do so. Going through every WR would have been a big project so I focused on 1st round WR's, mainly because these are the guys people tend to hold onto longer because of their 'potential'.
I looked at how 1st round WR's have fared since 1990 and found some interesting patterns. By their 3rd year, 1st round WR's generally post a 1000 yard season if they are ever going to do so. A few exceptions were Wayne, Harrison, Morton and Moore who did it in their 4th year (it's worth noting that these guys did have 700+ yard seasons in their first 3 years).
Michael Westbrook didn't put up a 1000 yard season (his only one) until his 5th year, but he was plagued with injuries before then. No other 1st round WR's posted a 1000 yard if they didn't have one in their first 4 years.
1st round WR's who post a 1000 yard season by their 3rd (and sometimes 4th) year usually go on to multiple 1000 yard seasons:
Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Javon Walker, Santana Moss, Wayne, Burress, Holt, Moss, Keyshawn, Harrison, Moulds, Morton, Derrick Alexander, Curtis Conway and Herman Moore.
However, some 1st round WR's broken-out early only to become big disappointments:
Year Drafted in the 1st:
2004 - Michael Clayton - 1st year breakout (80/1193/7), but nothing for the past 3 years
2002 - Ashley Lelie - 3rd year breakout (54/1084/7), but nothing for the past 3 years
2001 - Koren Robinson - 2nd year breakout (78/1240/5), career down the drain after
2001 - Rod Gardner - 2nd year breakout (71/1006/8), career down the drain after
1999 - David Boston - 2nd year breakout (71/1156/7), huge year following (98/1598/8), career down the drain after
1996 - Eddie Kennison - 1st year breakout (54/924/9), big drop off for years until making a comeback late in his career
1995 - Michael Westbrook - 5th year breakout (65/1191/9), career down the drain after
1994 - Charles Johnson - 3rd year breakout (60/1008/3), career down the drain after
Here are the list of recent 1st round WR's who have had 1000 yard seasons (or very close to it) by their 3rd year:
2007 - Bowe - 1st (995/5)
2006 - S. Holmes - 2nd (948/8)
2005 - Edwards - 3rd (80/1269/16)
2005 - R. White - 3rd (83/1202/6)
2004 - Roy Williams - 3rd (82/1310/7)
2004 - Lee Evans - 3rd (82/1292/8)
NFL rostered 1st round WR's who appear to they will never become 1000 yard receivers (or if they do it will be only once):
2004 - Reggie Williams and Michael Jenkins
2003 - Bryant Johnson
2002 - Donte Stallworth
This doesn't mean these guys don't hold FF value, just that they are unlikely to become 1000 yard WR's.
2008 is a make-or-break year for these 4th year WR's:
2005 - Williamson, Matt Jones and Mark Clayton
I looked at how 1st round WR's have fared since 1990 and found some interesting patterns. By their 3rd year, 1st round WR's generally post a 1000 yard season if they are ever going to do so. A few exceptions were Wayne, Harrison, Morton and Moore who did it in their 4th year (it's worth noting that these guys did have 700+ yard seasons in their first 3 years).
Michael Westbrook didn't put up a 1000 yard season (his only one) until his 5th year, but he was plagued with injuries before then. No other 1st round WR's posted a 1000 yard if they didn't have one in their first 4 years.
1st round WR's who post a 1000 yard season by their 3rd (and sometimes 4th) year usually go on to multiple 1000 yard seasons:
Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Javon Walker, Santana Moss, Wayne, Burress, Holt, Moss, Keyshawn, Harrison, Moulds, Morton, Derrick Alexander, Curtis Conway and Herman Moore.
However, some 1st round WR's broken-out early only to become big disappointments:
Year Drafted in the 1st:
2004 - Michael Clayton - 1st year breakout (80/1193/7), but nothing for the past 3 years
2002 - Ashley Lelie - 3rd year breakout (54/1084/7), but nothing for the past 3 years
2001 - Koren Robinson - 2nd year breakout (78/1240/5), career down the drain after
2001 - Rod Gardner - 2nd year breakout (71/1006/8), career down the drain after
1999 - David Boston - 2nd year breakout (71/1156/7), huge year following (98/1598/8), career down the drain after
1996 - Eddie Kennison - 1st year breakout (54/924/9), big drop off for years until making a comeback late in his career
1995 - Michael Westbrook - 5th year breakout (65/1191/9), career down the drain after
1994 - Charles Johnson - 3rd year breakout (60/1008/3), career down the drain after
Here are the list of recent 1st round WR's who have had 1000 yard seasons (or very close to it) by their 3rd year:
2007 - Bowe - 1st (995/5)
2006 - S. Holmes - 2nd (948/8)
2005 - Edwards - 3rd (80/1269/16)
2005 - R. White - 3rd (83/1202/6)
2004 - Roy Williams - 3rd (82/1310/7)
2004 - Lee Evans - 3rd (82/1292/8)
NFL rostered 1st round WR's who appear to they will never become 1000 yard receivers (or if they do it will be only once):
2004 - Reggie Williams and Michael Jenkins
2003 - Bryant Johnson
2002 - Donte Stallworth
This doesn't mean these guys don't hold FF value, just that they are unlikely to become 1000 yard WR's.
2008 is a make-or-break year for these 4th year WR's:
2005 - Williamson, Matt Jones and Mark Clayton
