When do the good WR's break out? (1 Viewer)

[TheWinz]

FWIW… I’d probably re-define breakout as a Top 25 or Top 30 performance as Top 12 seems limiting. I’d be thrilled to have a rookie or second year WR end up ranked #18 as they are going to be starter worthy. Even ranked #27 they are starter worthy even if I’d prefer to have stronger options at WR3.

Agreed. I think it should get tougher for the first few seasons. As you said, if a rookie finishes as a fantasy relevant asset, they are likely on their way to greatness, or at least goodness. Ladd McConkey finished with 82/1149/7, but he didn't make the list because he didn't finish 2 spots higher? That was 100% a breakout year! Most leagues can start at least 3 WR's, so perhaps something like:
Rookie - top 36
2nd year - top 24
3rd year and beyond - top 12

I figured guys like Ladd, BTJ and Nabers didn't make the list because they're not in their 4th year yet.

If you scroll up this thread, you will see they made the list for rookies breaking out, but only Nabers and BTJ (Ladd finished WR14)

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

FWIW… I’d probably re-define breakout as a Top 25 or Top 30 performance as Top 12 seems limiting. I’d be thrilled to have a rookie or second year WR end up ranked #18 as they are going to be starter worthy. Even ranked #27 they are starter worthy even if I’d prefer to have stronger options at WR3.

Agreed. I think it should get tougher for the first few seasons. As you said, if a rookie finishes as a fantasy relevant asset, they are likely on their way to greatness, or at least goodness. Ladd McConkey finished with 82/1149/7, but he didn't make the list because he didn't finish 2 spots higher? That was 100% a breakout year! Most leagues can start at least 3 WR's, so perhaps something like:
Rookie - top 36
2nd year - top 24
3rd year and beyond - top 12

I love running the numbers for insights and you’ve done well here. I typically will run numbers in a lot of different directions to calibrate insights.

What did you use as source data? FBG end of season rankings on the player profiles?

Yes, FBG stats are easy to view and accurate. But I don't view them on the player profiles. I use the player stats under the tools dropdown menu. They only go back about 20 years, but that's certainly all the sample size needed. I always use full PPR scoring as well, as that's what all my leagues are. And I prefer to use end of season rankings, because it's just too hard doing points per game. If you try that, you end up setting your own cutoffs, like saying QB Joe Milton was QB6 last year, because he actually was if you use points per game. Here's a quick link...

https://www.footballguys.com/playerhistoricalstats?pos=wr&yr=2024&startwk=1&stopwk=18&profile=p

Thanks for the link! I’ve not seen that.

—

I’m definitely bought into the idea that 2nd round WRs typically need two years and 3rd round WRs typically need three years. I’m going with that rule of thumb until I can see a better rule of thumb.

I’m in a contract league and, based on a limited analysis, I found that for the most part you want QBs that were 1st round (NFL draft) picks. Later round picks that perform at a high level are rare. For WRs, you want 1st or 2nd round picks. Picks that perform well from the 3rd or later rounds are rare. I’m not sure about TEs yet. They might be like WRs but I need more data. Plus, they peak later so I’ve largely become disinterested in drafting them preferring to pick them up when they’ve been in the league 3-5 years. I could say the same about QBS really. Just wait until they’ve been in the league a while then draft them as free agents after their first contract is up. What I found most interesting is the top RBs can come from literally any round. Just look at your draft board of the final stats from last year and RBs are all over the board from 1st-5th round picks.

According to my RB redraft board…

Henry (2nd)
Taylor (2nd)
Achane (3rd)
Williams (5th)
Irving (4th)
Brown (5th)
Cook (2nd)
Kamara (3rd)
Hall (2nd)
Walker (2nd)
Conner (3rd)
Hubbard (4th)
Swift (2nd)
Jones (5th)
Monty (3rd)
Warren (UFA)
Tracy (5th)
Henderson (2nd)
Robinson (3rd) — Prior to trade
Harvey (2nd)
Dobbins (2nd)
Pacheco (7th)

The rest of the top 30 are 1sts.

 

[TheWinz]

The rest of the top 30 are 1sts.

Can you post your complete top 30 list? I want to do something.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

The rest of the top 30 are 1sts.

Can you post your complete top 30 list? I want to do something.

Sure, this list was just FBG projections for 2025 with 1/2 PPR for a 12 team league.

Bijan
Gibbs
Barkley
McCaffrey
Henry
Jeanty
Taylor
Achane
Jacob’s
Williams
Irving
Brown
Cook
Kamara
Hall
Walker
Hampton
Conner
Hubbard
Swift
Pollard
Jones
Monty
Warren
Tracy
Henderson
Robinson
Harvey
Dobbins
Pacheco

 

[TheWinz]

The rest of the top 30 are 1sts.

Can you post your complete top 30 list? I want to do something.

Sure, this list was just FBG projections for 2025 with 1/2 PPR for a 12 team league.

Bijan
Gibbs
Barkley
McCaffrey
Henry
Jeanty
Taylor
Achane
Jacob’s
Williams
Irving
Brown
Cook
Kamara
Hall
Walker
Hampton
Conner
Hubbard
Swift
Pollard
Jones
Monty
Warren
Tracy
Henderson
Robinson
Harvey
Dobbins
Pacheco

Thanx. Gimme a few minutes...

 

[TheWinz]

RB's that were the 1st picked in their drafts
Jeanty, Robinson, Hall, Jacobs, Barkley

RB's that were the 2nd picked in their drafts
Hampton, Gibbs, Walker, Swift, McCaffrey, Henry

RB's that were the 3rd picked in their drafts
Cook, Taylor

RB's that were the 4th picked in their drafts
Henderson, Montgomery

RB's that were the 5th picked in their drafts
Harvey, Dobbins, Kamara

RB's that were the 6th picked in their drafts
Irving, Achane

RB's that were the 8th picked in their drafts
Hubbard, Conner

RB's that were the 10th picked in their drafts
Brown

RB's that were the 11th picked in their drafts
Pollard

RB's that were the 14th picked in their drafts
Tracy

RB's that were the 15th picked in their drafts
Williams

RB's that were the 19th picked in their drafts
Jones

RB's that were the 22nd picked in their drafts
Pacheco

RB's that were undrafted
Warren

I assume the Robinson near the bottom of your list is Brian. If so, he is certainly not projected to finish top 30 any longer. Half of the list were picked 5th or later in their drafts.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

RB's that were the 1st picked in their drafts
Jeanty, Robinson, Hall, Jacobs, Barkley

RB's that were the 2nd picked in their drafts
Hampton, Gibbs, Walker, Swift, McCaffrey, Henry

RB's that were the 3rd picked in their drafts
Cook, Taylor

RB's that were the 4th picked in their drafts
Henderson, Montgomery

RB's that were the 5th picked in their drafts
Harvey, Dobbins, Kamara

RB's that were the 6th picked in their drafts
Irving, Achane

RB's that were the 8th picked in their drafts
Hubbard, Conner

RB's that were the 10th picked in their drafts
Brown

RB's that were the 11th picked in their drafts
Pollard

RB's that were the 14th picked in their drafts
Tracy

RB's that were the 15th picked in their drafts
Williams

RB's that were the 19th picked in their drafts
Jones

RB's that were the 22nd picked in their drafts
Pacheco

RB's that were undrafted
Warren

I assume the Robinson near the bottom of your list is Brian. If so, he is certainly not projected to finish top 30 any longer. Half of the list were picked 5th or later in their drafts.

Fascinating.

The lesson here, and of course having a decades worth of data might be better, is draft round or draft position (good one!) has a “relatively” low correlation to high performance as compared to other positions. Notably versus QB and WR (per my modest data analysis.) Not today but at some point I may run more robust schedules on it.

I don’t know if this is helpful in redraft or dynasty but it’s a big deal in a contract league where rookies get a four year contract and then eventually can be available in a free agent draft. I hardly see the point in drafting any position beside RB right now. I also tend to move my 1st round picks for proven players rather than incubate QBs, WRs and TEs for 1-3 years.