Travdogg's positional rankings (summer edition) (2 Viewers)

[H8fulHuck]

@travdogg excellent thoughtful content! One of my favorite reads round here. Appreciate your thoughts and opinions.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

3. Lamar Jackson, he 100% should have been the NFL MVP last season, he had peak Rodgers efficacy, but with 900 rushing yards too. But fantasy wise, its likely he declines a bit. The 2 best fantasy QB seasons in the last 6 years belong to Jackson, there's really nowhere to go but down. A 41-4 TD/INT ratio is unsustainable, as is a TD pass on 8.6% of your passes. The Ravens also had a pretty awful defense for much of last season, but they figured it out late, and that should carry over to this season.

I agree with this. There's almost no way he can keep those efficiency numbers up,

Couple of caveats, though.

1. I think the defense being good will help him with scoring opportunities. Maybe the RBs get the bulk of that advantage, but Jackson will get some of it either passing or running.

2. He's got the best receiving group he's ever had.

Tier 1 is extremely tightly packed. I can make a case for any of them #1.

I wasn't disagreeing with your ranking at all. Just pointing out a few things that could be more in his favor this year than last September.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

Love it. Not sure how CeeDee is number 1 and and Dak isn't even ranked. - NM, this has already been addressed.

I think Daniel’s and the Skins take a significant step back this season. Love the kid but new receivers, a much harder schedule, not sneaking up on anyone this season = gonna be a down year for them.


Great job Trav

 

[travdogg]

3. Lamar Jackson, he 100% should have been the NFL MVP last season, he had peak Rodgers efficacy, but with 900 rushing yards too. But fantasy wise, its likely he declines a bit. The 2 best fantasy QB seasons in the last 6 years belong to Jackson, there's really nowhere to go but down. A 41-4 TD/INT ratio is unsustainable, as is a TD pass on 8.6% of your passes. The Ravens also had a pretty awful defense for much of last season, but they figured it out late, and that should carry over to this season.

I agree with this. There's almost no way he can keep those efficiency numbers up,

Couple of caveats, though.

1. I think the defense being good will help him with scoring opportunities. Maybe the RBs get the bulk of that advantage, but Jackson will get some of it either passing or running.

2. He's got the best receiving group he's ever had.

Tier 1 is extremely tightly packed. I can make a case for any of them #1.

I wasn't disagreeing with your ranking at all. Just pointing out a few things that could be more in his favor this year than last September.

I didn't think you were disagreeing, I just wanted to double down on how close tier 1 of QBs is.

I've really liked the teams I've drafted in best ball that had a tier 1 QB and a tier 1 TE.

 

[RedBird33]

Great stuff, thank you!

Where does Rome Odunze rank?

 

[travdogg]

Great stuff, thank you!

Where does Rome Odunze rank?

Was just outside the top-40, in a group with Diggs, Mooney, and Golden.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Good to have these back and welcome to the 2025 season!

Early Observations

QB

Trevor Lawrence - feel like he's going to be this years empty hype vehicle. I do get that they brought in Travis...but I feel that's an experiment in and of itself in terms of how he's used. And as we approach year 6, I just wonder if there's any there there.

Justin Herbert - Herbert may have cut his hair (I've stopped keeping track)...but physically, Lawrence/Herbert match-up pretty tight. Yet he's not ranked even though he'll be in Year 2 under Harbaugh/Roman and his 2nd half last year, was pretty good. And he brings rushing upside unlike Goff. While you might say the reconstitution of their run game means more emphasis on this part of their offense, when it comes to the Lawrence/Cohen pairing - don't forget the TB rushing attack last year was more productive than ATL's with Bijan. Probably the most glaring omission IMO.

JJ - Go plant your flag. I'm cool with this even though I feel it's optimistic. Reasoning solid though.

RB - overall, alot of chalk here. Although...

Isiah Pacheco - It doesn't take long for shine to rub off on RB's. Especially Day 3 ones. But Kareem Hunt and Elijah Mitchell do little to scare me off a 100% Pacheco...and the lead RB in KC feels like a much productive player than RB28.

WR - OK...so let's discuss

Garrett Wilson/Ladd McConkey - Let's just compare 2024 seasons. McConkey had 45 more yards and the same amount of TD's on 41 fewer targets. In terms of efficiency, that an absolute chasm of a delta. Now yes, 100% true that GW's target volume decreased significantly upon Davante's arrival and his efficiency improved. But now the WR depth chart behind his catastrophic, which I'm sure you're factoring into an absolute target bonanza. But he was 4th in the NFL in targets last year. Yes, he's an enticing prospect...but we're in Year 4 now. And while I get, it's been lousy situation after lousy situation, last year wasn't that lousy.

Meanwhile, McConkey as you point out took half a season to get it. His last 9 games producing a 52/761/5 line on 64 targets. Not to get generational, but he seems very Marvin Harrisonny (Sr.) to me. Obviously you can say the difference between #8 & #13 is slim...but I think Ladd is on a different tier.

DK Metcalf - I get it. PIT & Aaron Rodgers are going to be polarizing this year. And your point is valid with respect to Rodgers' preference for precision. But WR33? For a $30M/year #1 WR...a level of production being predicted that rivals Quentin Johnson/Rashod Bateman? WR33 would be disappointing. It would increase the suicide rate in PIT. While Olave, saddled with whoever is going to be playing QB in NO is WR27?

TE

TJ Hockenson - I actually really like this as a sneaky 'emergent veteran' play. 2022 was when he was traded. He was having a HUGE year in 2023 before the injury and as you point out, he's coming back from that injury last year. You really can't argue with Bowers/McBride/Kittle in the order of your choice as the Top 3...but I wouldn't be surprised to see TJH break into this year.

Travis Kelce - One of the more underrated aspects of his legacy IMO is that he's one of the saltiest mofos to ever play the position. Think about it the elites historically. Winslow = smooth. Gates = similar. Gonzo - matinee idol nice guy. Gronk - bro. But Kelce...I mean certainly off the field he's affable. But he's a pretty nasty fruck on the field. And I do think he's salty about being embarrassed in the SB. And I do think an offseason of doing to Taylor thing last year didn't exactly prep him great for 2024. So we'll see if his off-season approach with the Taylor thing having calmed down quite a bit makes a difference.

But he was still 3rd in TE targets last year...and while he may not be the TD monster he used to be - 3 feels low. Too low to replicate. And quite frankly, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for KC to establish his red zone presence in that offense again.

 

[pinkstapler]

Add me to the list of thank you's. This was a great read as always.

And tbh, while there are a few guys I'd have in different spots; there weren't many where I'd have moved them more than 4-5 spots in either direction.

Really, from a macro view, this just reinforces what I've already decided to be my redraft strategy for this year.

1. Hammer WR early, the drop off is real. Like to walk away with 2 in the first 3 rounds. 3 in the first 5.
2. Either get a top 4 TE, or be the first to grab one right before people start taking backups (so around TE12-15)
3. Shot gun approach at RB through the middle and late rounds. I HATE the amount of red flags tier 2/3 guys have relative to their ADP, outside maybe one or two. I'd like to leave a draft with a minimum of 6. All I need are two each week.
4. Wait ALLLLLLLL DAYYYYY on QB. Like I may wait until people are already taking a 2nd one, unless they are ranking them like you (and me haha). And then I'll likely back to back them (which always pisses people off, and usually starts the league scramble to get a backup earlier). Gimme two of TLaw/JJ McC/Stafford/Tua/Maye with an ADP all QB18 or later and I wouldn't be surprised to see any of them finish top 12. Sure, chances of it are less than earlier QBs; but getting them for a 5+ round discount, the cost to value is the best of any position in the 2025 draft IMO. And then spend those rounds accruing higher upside RB/WR for flex/injury/lottery ticket.

 

[(HULK)]

9. Brock Purdy, move over Rodney Dangerfield, there is a new Mr. gets no respect. I almost feel like Purdy is still getting being Mr. Irrelevant held against him. He's been a top-10 QB since he took over in 2022, and even last year was QB9 despite getting half a season from Aiyuk/Trent Williams, and like 3 games from CMC, and having a clearly not right Deebo. Despite all that, Purdy still had an elite YPA and added some major rushing value that may or not be sticky. Now CMC is back, Aiyuk should be at some point, and its possible Pearsall takes a step forward after being shot in the chest last summer.

Thank you. I've been arguing this in dynasty circles, everyone is way too low on the guy. His floor was last season and that was still QB1 level.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I love this thread and look forward to it each year. It makes my work easy and many times "TD" says what is on my mind.
I might not agree with everything and we will get to some of that in future posts but I feel no need to rebuttal much because these threads allow us to see what others are thinking
That can be very useful in the Redrafts coming up soon

I applaud @travdogg for continuing to do this for many years now, it's like a security blanket for a lot of us
It cuts thru the bullspit and gets down to brass tax quickly which most of the folks who frequent this thread find refreshing

Been on the road for weeks, just finding this thread, lot to catch up on
Most of the prominent loudmouths in the Shark Pool myself included look to Travdogg to measure their POV on players
Occasionally he and I disagree and its usually involving the Miami Dolphins because I am a biased/jaded fan

 

[fred_1_15301]

@travdogg Where would you rank Odunze? Any chance he breaks out?

 

[tjford]

Even if I don't always agree, I like reading your logic on why you value who you do where you do.

 

[JohnnyU]

Yes, I appreciate threads like this. @travdogg puts a lot of thought into it. It generates a lot of discussion that is important for the reason why we're here in the first place.

 

[tjford]

One question for @travdogg ...

If the justification for Trevor Lawrence at #12 is that Brian Thomas Jr. (ranked 6) and Travis Hunter (ranked 23) carry him to QB1 finish, where does Matthew Stafford shake out with Puka Nacua (ranked 5) and Davante Adams (ranked 18)? Or am I discounting Lawrence's rushing upside and passing game to the backs too much?

 

[travdogg]

@travdogg Where would you rank Odunze? Any chance he breaks out?

Just outside the top-40. He may break out, but he also may be the #4 target on the Bears. We don't really have a template for how Ben Johnson would use an Odunze type. As a Bears fan, I will say, it worries me slightly that they felt the need to go TE/WR with their first 2 picks. Maybe that means nothing and its BPA (I like both Loveland and Burden a lot) but it also could mean they were underwhelmed with Odunze.

 

[travdogg]

One question for @travdogg ...

If the justification for Trevor Lawrence at #12 is that Brian Thomas Jr. (ranked 6) and Travis Hunter (ranked 23) carry him to QB1 finish, where does Matthew Stafford shake out with Puka Nacua (ranked 5) and Davante Adams (ranked 18)? Or am I discounting Lawrence's rushing upside and passing game to the backs too much?

You pretty much nailed it. Stafford contributes nothing as a runner, and Lawrence is an above average runner.

 

[Chaka]

Yes, I appreciate threads like this. @travdogg puts a lot of thought into it. It generates a lot of discussion that is important for the reason why we're here in the first place.

Sure, but I wish he would post it as a 37 minute video instead of a list.

 

[wgoldsph]

Yes, I appreciate threads like this. @travdogg puts a lot of thought into it. It generates a lot of discussion that is important for the reason why we're here in the first place.

Sure, but I wish he would post it as a 37 minute video instead of a list.

Don't hate the algorithm

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'm bumping this thread because it's one of the few pure Redraft threads in the Shark Pool.
The individual players threads are slanted fairly hard on dynasty outlooks vs solely 2025

-I cannot emphasize it enough to people trying to gather info for Redraft, you must drown out the dynasty heads.
I have a thread on it somewhere but it's time to focus on Week 1

 

[Ministry of Pain]

"9. Bucky Irving, my favorite sleeper from last season (I had him on all but 1 team last year) Irving led the league in yards after contact per play last year (a very independent RB stat) and also led the league in % of runs over 30 yards. By the end of the season, he was playing 70% of the snaps, and that feels likely to carry over, even with the OC change. He also caught 90% of his passes last season, an all-time record for rookies with at least 40 targets. Its possible he makes a Gibbs-like leap in year 2. The biggest issue to me is Liam Coen. Tampa Bay had over 1000 more rushing yards, almost 2 more yards per carry, and 8 more rush TDs than in 2023. The run game also had a big spike after Godwin got hurt."


And for most of those reasons you list, I have grabbed Irving as my RB1 in the 2nd round behind a front line WR in the 1st
I'm not as high this year on some of the veteran RBs that killed it last year when we got some decent value taking Saquon in the back of the 1st, Henry in the 2nd, Jacobs 3rd-4th
I share your enthusiasm and can see that year 2 leap/jump in the same way Gibbs jumped in Year 2 and us now a Top 5 pick, he was a very late1st/early 2nd last year
I think Bucky will be a 2026 1st round pick which means he will have a strong 2025

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Early August Bump
Training Camp reports are coming in
I'm interested in some of the QBs after the 1st 15 we have listed here

 

[RaidersAreOne]

I am surprised Chase isn't your #1 WR. I am floored he isn't even your #2.

 

[travdogg]

I am surprised Chase isn't your #1 WR. I am floored he isn't even your #2.

I'm almost finished with a preseason update, and he's still WR3 and 5th overall for me. I don't hate him, but I think last season is almost certainly his ceiling.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

These rankings are meant to appeal to the broadest range of players so its 4pt pass TD, and half PPR.

QB
Tier 1:
1. Josh Allen, its tight at the top, but I lean Allen due to his incredible consistency. He's been a top-3 QB in 5 straight seasons. While his passing yards have gone down almost 50 yards per game since Joe Brady took over, his rush TDs have more than doubled going from 13 (in 21-22) to 28. I don't see that part of Buffalo's offense changing at all. Allen I think also gets a small bonus from not being particularly reliant upon anyone around him. He isn't going to be sunk by an injury to one of his weapons. Its also possible one of his weapons does break out.

2. Jayden Daniels, I was very tempted to put him #1. He was #3 per game last year, throwing out the Panthers game he went down on the 1st series in (a game Mariota went for almost 30 in, who knows what Daniels would have done?) he's a strong candidate to lead the position in rushing yards, and unlike Lamar, calls his own number quite a bit (not as much as Allen/Hurts) at the GL. Also, unlike everyone else in this tier, his offense was clearly upgraded around him, adding Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil.

3. Lamar Jackson, he 100% should have been the NFL MVP last season, he had peak Rodgers efficacy, but with 900 rushing yards too. But fantasy wise, its likely he declines a bit. The 2 best fantasy QB seasons in the last 6 years belong to Jackson, there's really nowhere to go but down. A 41-4 TD/INT ratio is unsustainable, as is a TD pass on 8.6% of your passes. The Ravens also had a pretty awful defense for much of last season, but they figured it out late, and that should carry over to this season.

4. Jalen Hurts, the tush push survived, so Hurts is basically a lock for 12+ rush TDs. Hurts has been the QB2 PPG since taking the starting job in 2020. He's also got BY FAR the best weapons of this tier, and arguably just in general. Its a little less pretty than the other 3, but Hurts gets the job done just the same. Its also possible a new OC throws the ball more, or that the defense (which lost multiple starters) or Barkley take a step back. I've done a handful of best ball drafts, and like the teams more that have a QB from this tier than waiting.

Tier 2:
5. Joe Burrow, I thought about making Burrow a tier of his own, but I really hate doing that. Burrow is likely to lead the NFL in passing, but the lack of rushing keeps him in tier 2, even if he's basically the new Drew Brees. Burrow had the 20th most pass attempts in NFL history last season, some regression is likely, and he's also more weapon reliant than most, even though I'd argue he elevates Chase/Higgins as much or more than they do him. Its just a very condensed offense. There is absolutely a scenario where Burrow throws for 5000-50. But he almost has to if he's gonna be a tier 1 guy.

Tier 3:
8. Justin Fields, Fields has been a top-10 fantasy QB (QB7 PPG since 2022) his entire career, and Aaron Glenn came out and said "we want Fields running" which other coaches have often attempted to curb. Glenn also mentioned using Fields on tush pushes, which would be a huge boon as Fields has only 2 1-yard TDs in his career. If he stays healthy, there is a Burrow level ceiling here. Of course, more so than anyone else in the top-15, he's dependent on his rushing, which also increases his injury risk. He also doesn't have a lot of weapons to work with in the passing game. Unlike in Pittsburgh, he's got no real chance of being benched, as only 36 year old (and even less durable) Tyrod Taylor is the #2. If I don't end up with a tier 1 guy, I'm probably waiting past the tier 2 guys and grabbing someone from this tier, maybe 2 of them.

9. Brock Purdy, move over Rodney Dangerfield, there is a new Mr. gets no respect. I almost feel like Purdy is still getting being Mr. Irrelevant held against him. He's been a top-10 QB since he took over in 2022, and even last year was QB9 despite getting half a season from Aiyuk/Trent Williams, and like 3 games from CMC, and having a clearly not right Deebo. Despite all that, Purdy still had an elite YPA and added some major rushing value that may or not be sticky. Now CMC is back, Aiyuk should be at some point, and its possible Pearsall takes a step forward after being shot in the chest last summer.

10. JJ McCarthy, everything has lined up for him in 2025. Darnold gone, and only replaced by zero threat Sam Howell, and huge interior OL upgrades. I think Kevin O'Connell is as QB friendly a HC as any in the league. I don't think Sam Darnold is a good QB, he's a passable starter, Cousins was an above average starter, I think McCarthy could quickly prove to be better than either, and even if he's not, in 2023 when Cousins was out Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens combined for QB13 in his absence, despite not having Jefferson for many of those games. My 2 most drafted QBs are Fields and McCarthy, and I feel great about that.

Tier 4:

12. Trevor Lawrence, absolutely love the Liam Coen hire. Lawrence has been arguably the biggest boom/bust QB the last few years, and I feel that's largely been because Doug Pederson was trying to force deep balls, but Lawrence had his most success throwing to Kirk/Engram in the short/intermediate range. Those guys are both gone, but Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter could be as good as any 1-2 punch at WR in the NFL in short order, and Coen has already shown the blueprint for this in Tampa. He's also been a sneaky runner, where 300-4 feels safe if he stays healthy (Al-Shaair should have gotten an indefinite suspension last year for his hit on Lawrence) and this team may have lots of trouble rushing possibly leading to a pass attempt spike.

13. Caleb Williams, he had a really interesting rookie season, where he was extremely boom/bust. He was either in the top-5 or out of the top-20 almost every week. The offseason went about as well as possible for him, with multiple OL upgrades, and the top 2 rookie picks being pass catchers, not to mention the crown jewel of assistant coaches coming on to be his HC. He needs a lot of work on his pocket awareness, but its reasonable to wonder if he just lost confidence and that's a fixable issue. Williams averaged just under 30 rushing yards per game, but with 0 rushing scores. That number could easily jump to 2-4 with nothing about his usage changing.

-Danels is the CJS of 2025, he'll take a step back with Washington, I question if they can make the Playoffs. They were ahead of schedule.
Allen--LJax-Burrow is how I would rank the Top3, Hurts so much surrounding talent, hard to not place him Top 5
Fields at #8 seems rather lofty, I could watch Purdy and JJ McCarthy land on opponents teams, no problem

It appears you like younger QBs over proven veterans you can draft cheaper. TLaw and Caleb need to actually prove it on the field before I would take them over others you haven't listed
I like CJS and the discount this season, big fan of Geno Smith late
Penix is talented and a 2nd year QB that wouldn't be this cheap IMO had he started all season, people would talk him up more.
Vets late like Rodgers and Russ, decent bye week QBs to pair with studs you take early
Meaning you don't need another QB if you have Allen-LJ or Burrow until you get to almsot the last round of your redrafts or just work waivers

 

[RaidersAreOne]

I am surprised Chase isn't your #1 WR. I am floored he isn't even your #2.

I'm almost finished with a preseason update, and he's still WR3 and 5th overall for me. I don't hate him, but I think last season is almost certainly his ceiling.

Fair enough. Triple crowns aren't easy to come by so I think that would be the ceiling for most players in history. I am just surprised you have him 3rd given nothing has changed regarding his situation.

Burrow further removed from injury, Higgins brought back to take attention away, a bad Bengals D has somehow gotten worse, they will likely lead the league in passing attempts, etc.

Chase is not only WR1 for me but player #1 overall.

 

[Deamon]

I'm almost finished with a preseason update

Anxiously awaiting.

 

[Ilov80s]

I am surprised Chase isn't your #1 WR. I am floored he isn't even your #2.

I'm almost finished with a preseason update, and he's still WR3 and 5th overall for me. I don't hate him, but I think last season is almost certainly his ceiling.

Considering only 2 WRs have ever have had fantasy seasons on par with Chase's 2024, I have to agree it's the ceiling for Chase. And for everyone else too.

 

[King of the Jungle]

I am surprised Chase isn't your #1 WR. I am floored he isn't even your #2.

I'm almost finished with a preseason update, and he's still WR3 and 5th overall for me. I don't hate him, but I think last season is almost certainly his ceiling.

Fair enough. Triple crowns aren't easy to come by so I think that would be the ceiling for most players in history. I am just surprised you have him 3rd given nothing has changed regarding his situation.

Burrow further removed from injury, Higgins brought back to take attention away, a bad Bengals D has somehow gotten worse, they will likely lead the league in passing attempts, etc.

Chase is not only WR1 for me but player #1 overall.

I think the biggest challenge to ranking is not projecting the upcoming year to last years production and finding those potential differences. There are a lot of positives when looking at the Bengals passing game however, so tough to not have Chase at the top spot. I do think if Higgins can stay healthy, the production between the two will be much closer.

 

[Ilov80s]

I am surprised Chase isn't your #1 WR. I am floored he isn't even your #2.

I'm almost finished with a preseason update, and he's still WR3 and 5th overall for me. I don't hate him, but I think last season is almost certainly his ceiling.

Fair enough. Triple crowns aren't easy to come by so I think that would be the ceiling for most players in history. I am just surprised you have him 3rd given nothing has changed regarding his situation.

Burrow further removed from injury, Higgins brought back to take attention away, a bad Bengals D has somehow gotten worse, they will likely lead the league in passing attempts, etc.

Chase is not only WR1 for me but player #1 overall.

I think the biggest challenge to ranking is not projecting the upcoming year to last years production and finding those potential differences. There are a lot of positives when looking at the Bengals passing game however, so tough to not have Chase at the top spot. I do think if Higgins can stay healthy, the production between the two will be much closer.

This is a good post. helps me see why Chase at WR3 can make sense.

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

Nice. now don't have to do any research.

 

[Ray_T]

nice job TravDogg
with respect to this quote....

Nico Collins, the WR3 PPG, he's #1 in the NFL the last 2 years in YPRR, and fantasy points per route, the problem is, he needs more routes. Some of that is staying healthy, and some of that is just odd WR usage in Houston. Hopefully the new OC Caley immediately shelves the odd WR rotation the Texans have had. Caley came from the Rams, where he (in theory) learned a thing or 2 about getting the ball in your best WRs hands as often as possible. Nico has #1 overall upside, he just needs more work, which is very possible. Among WRs who were top-10 PPG, only Mike Evans had fewer weekly catches. Collins at his best, looks a lot like Terrell Owens to me.

part of the reason Hes not performed better is because the Houston Line was terrible last year. PFF had a nice writeup on their 2025 o line rankings. I think they had a D grade last year and predicted to be the worst line in the NFL this year.

When your QB has people in his face, that affects the results for the WR to some degree and I think this is part of it.

Not disagreeing with your analysis at all. this is just extra information that suppliments your astute analysis here.

 

[travdogg]

I'm almost finished with a preseason update

Anxiously awaiting.

Just about done, probably after the first preseason week is done, just to make sure we don't get any massive injury news. Also, since its draft season now, I'm doing a top-150 overall to supplement the positional changes. So, less analysis (not a ton more to say about most of these guys) but more rankings.

 

[TampaMike19]

Great work as always @travdogg ! We greatly appreciate the insight behind your process.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I would think Henderson is a must in your new Top 30 RBs

 

[wgoldsph]

Is this preseason nonsense over with yet? I want more @travdogg