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Travdogg's positional rankings (summer edition) (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter travdogg
- Start date
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
I wasn't disagreeing with your ranking at all. Just pointing out a few things that could be more in his favor this year than last September.
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
Love it. Not sure how CeeDee is number 1 and and Dak isn't even ranked. - NM, this has already been addressed.
I think Daniel’s and the Skins take a significant step back this season. Love the kid but new receivers, a much harder schedule, not sneaking up on anyone this season = gonna be a down year for them.
Great job Trav
I think Daniel’s and the Skins take a significant step back this season. Love the kid but new receivers, a much harder schedule, not sneaking up on anyone this season = gonna be a down year for them.
Great job Trav
I didn't think you were disagreeing, I just wanted to double down on how close tier 1 of QBs is.
I've really liked the teams I've drafted in best ball that had a tier 1 QB and a tier 1 TE.
Was just outside the top-40, in a group with Diggs, Mooney, and Golden.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Good to have these back and welcome to the 2025 season!
Early Observations
QB
Trevor Lawrence - feel like he's going to be this years empty hype vehicle. I do get that they brought in Travis...but I feel that's an experiment in and of itself in terms of how he's used. And as we approach year 6, I just wonder if there's any there there.
Justin Herbert - Herbert may have cut his hair (I've stopped keeping track)...but physically, Lawrence/Herbert match-up pretty tight. Yet he's not ranked even though he'll be in Year 2 under Harbaugh/Roman and his 2nd half last year, was pretty good. And he brings rushing upside unlike Goff. While you might say the reconstitution of their run game means more emphasis on this part of their offense, when it comes to the Lawrence/Cohen pairing - don't forget the TB rushing attack last year was more productive than ATL's with Bijan. Probably the most glaring omission IMO.
JJ - Go plant your flag. I'm cool with this even though I feel it's optimistic. Reasoning solid though.
RB - overall, alot of chalk here. Although...
Isiah Pacheco - It doesn't take long for shine to rub off on RB's. Especially Day 3 ones. But Kareem Hunt and Elijah Mitchell do little to scare me off a 100% Pacheco...and the lead RB in KC feels like a much productive player than RB28.
WR - OK...so let's discuss
Garrett Wilson/Ladd McConkey - Let's just compare 2024 seasons. McConkey had 45 more yards and the same amount of TD's on 41 fewer targets. In terms of efficiency, that an absolute chasm of a delta. Now yes, 100% true that GW's target volume decreased significantly upon Davante's arrival and his efficiency improved. But now the WR depth chart behind his catastrophic, which I'm sure you're factoring into an absolute target bonanza. But he was 4th in the NFL in targets last year. Yes, he's an enticing prospect...but we're in Year 4 now. And while I get, it's been lousy situation after lousy situation, last year wasn't that lousy.
Meanwhile, McConkey as you point out took half a season to get it. His last 9 games producing a 52/761/5 line on 64 targets. Not to get generational, but he seems very Marvin Harrisonny (Sr.) to me. Obviously you can say the difference between #8 & #13 is slim...but I think Ladd is on a different tier.
DK Metcalf - I get it. PIT & Aaron Rodgers are going to be polarizing this year. And your point is valid with respect to Rodgers' preference for precision. But WR33? For a $30M/year #1 WR...a level of production being predicted that rivals Quentin Johnson/Rashod Bateman? WR33 would be disappointing. It would increase the suicide rate in PIT. While Olave, saddled with whoever is going to be playing QB in NO is WR27?
TE
TJ Hockenson - I actually really like this as a sneaky 'emergent veteran' play. 2022 was when he was traded. He was having a HUGE year in 2023 before the injury and as you point out, he's coming back from that injury last year. You really can't argue with Bowers/McBride/Kittle in the order of your choice as the Top 3...but I wouldn't be surprised to see TJH break into this year.
Travis Kelce - One of the more underrated aspects of his legacy IMO is that he's one of the saltiest mofos to ever play the position. Think about it the elites historically. Winslow = smooth. Gates = similar. Gonzo - matinee idol nice guy. Gronk - bro. But Kelce...I mean certainly off the field he's affable. But he's a pretty nasty fruck on the field. And I do think he's salty about being embarrassed in the SB. And I do think an offseason of doing to Taylor thing last year didn't exactly prep him great for 2024. So we'll see if his off-season approach with the Taylor thing having calmed down quite a bit makes a difference.
But he was still 3rd in TE targets last year...and while he may not be the TD monster he used to be - 3 feels low. Too low to replicate. And quite frankly, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for KC to establish his red zone presence in that offense again.
Early Observations
QB
Trevor Lawrence - feel like he's going to be this years empty hype vehicle. I do get that they brought in Travis...but I feel that's an experiment in and of itself in terms of how he's used. And as we approach year 6, I just wonder if there's any there there.
Justin Herbert - Herbert may have cut his hair (I've stopped keeping track)...but physically, Lawrence/Herbert match-up pretty tight. Yet he's not ranked even though he'll be in Year 2 under Harbaugh/Roman and his 2nd half last year, was pretty good. And he brings rushing upside unlike Goff. While you might say the reconstitution of their run game means more emphasis on this part of their offense, when it comes to the Lawrence/Cohen pairing - don't forget the TB rushing attack last year was more productive than ATL's with Bijan. Probably the most glaring omission IMO.
JJ - Go plant your flag. I'm cool with this even though I feel it's optimistic. Reasoning solid though.
RB - overall, alot of chalk here. Although...
Isiah Pacheco - It doesn't take long for shine to rub off on RB's. Especially Day 3 ones. But Kareem Hunt and Elijah Mitchell do little to scare me off a 100% Pacheco...and the lead RB in KC feels like a much productive player than RB28.
WR - OK...so let's discuss
Garrett Wilson/Ladd McConkey - Let's just compare 2024 seasons. McConkey had 45 more yards and the same amount of TD's on 41 fewer targets. In terms of efficiency, that an absolute chasm of a delta. Now yes, 100% true that GW's target volume decreased significantly upon Davante's arrival and his efficiency improved. But now the WR depth chart behind his catastrophic, which I'm sure you're factoring into an absolute target bonanza. But he was 4th in the NFL in targets last year. Yes, he's an enticing prospect...but we're in Year 4 now. And while I get, it's been lousy situation after lousy situation, last year wasn't that lousy.
Meanwhile, McConkey as you point out took half a season to get it. His last 9 games producing a 52/761/5 line on 64 targets. Not to get generational, but he seems very Marvin Harrisonny (Sr.) to me. Obviously you can say the difference between #8 & #13 is slim...but I think Ladd is on a different tier.
DK Metcalf - I get it. PIT & Aaron Rodgers are going to be polarizing this year. And your point is valid with respect to Rodgers' preference for precision. But WR33? For a $30M/year #1 WR...a level of production being predicted that rivals Quentin Johnson/Rashod Bateman? WR33 would be disappointing. It would increase the suicide rate in PIT. While Olave, saddled with whoever is going to be playing QB in NO is WR27?
TE
TJ Hockenson - I actually really like this as a sneaky 'emergent veteran' play. 2022 was when he was traded. He was having a HUGE year in 2023 before the injury and as you point out, he's coming back from that injury last year. You really can't argue with Bowers/McBride/Kittle in the order of your choice as the Top 3...but I wouldn't be surprised to see TJH break into this year.
Travis Kelce - One of the more underrated aspects of his legacy IMO is that he's one of the saltiest mofos to ever play the position. Think about it the elites historically. Winslow = smooth. Gates = similar. Gonzo - matinee idol nice guy. Gronk - bro. But Kelce...I mean certainly off the field he's affable. But he's a pretty nasty fruck on the field. And I do think he's salty about being embarrassed in the SB. And I do think an offseason of doing to Taylor thing last year didn't exactly prep him great for 2024. So we'll see if his off-season approach with the Taylor thing having calmed down quite a bit makes a difference.
But he was still 3rd in TE targets last year...and while he may not be the TD monster he used to be - 3 feels low. Too low to replicate. And quite frankly, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for KC to establish his red zone presence in that offense again.
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pinkstapler
Footballguy
Add me to the list of thank you's. This was a great read as always.
And tbh, while there are a few guys I'd have in different spots; there weren't many where I'd have moved them more than 4-5 spots in either direction.
Really, from a macro view, this just reinforces what I've already decided to be my redraft strategy for this year.
1. Hammer WR early, the drop off is real. Like to walk away with 2 in the first 3 rounds. 3 in the first 5.
2. Either get a top 4 TE, or be the first to grab one right before people start taking backups (so around TE12-15)
3. Shot gun approach at RB through the middle and late rounds. I HATE the amount of red flags tier 2/3 guys have relative to their ADP, outside maybe one or two. I'd like to leave a draft with a minimum of 6. All I need are two each week.
4. Wait ALLLLLLLL DAYYYYY on QB. Like I may wait until people are already taking a 2nd one, unless they are ranking them like you (and me haha). And then I'll likely back to back them (which always pisses people off, and usually starts the league scramble to get a backup earlier). Gimme two of TLaw/JJ McC/Stafford/Tua/Maye with an ADP all QB18 or later and I wouldn't be surprised to see any of them finish top 12. Sure, chances of it are less than earlier QBs; but getting them for a 5+ round discount, the cost to value is the best of any position in the 2025 draft IMO. And then spend those rounds accruing higher upside RB/WR for flex/injury/lottery ticket.
And tbh, while there are a few guys I'd have in different spots; there weren't many where I'd have moved them more than 4-5 spots in either direction.
Really, from a macro view, this just reinforces what I've already decided to be my redraft strategy for this year.
1. Hammer WR early, the drop off is real. Like to walk away with 2 in the first 3 rounds. 3 in the first 5.
2. Either get a top 4 TE, or be the first to grab one right before people start taking backups (so around TE12-15)
3. Shot gun approach at RB through the middle and late rounds. I HATE the amount of red flags tier 2/3 guys have relative to their ADP, outside maybe one or two. I'd like to leave a draft with a minimum of 6. All I need are two each week.
4. Wait ALLLLLLLL DAYYYYY on QB. Like I may wait until people are already taking a 2nd one, unless they are ranking them like you (and me haha). And then I'll likely back to back them (which always pisses people off, and usually starts the league scramble to get a backup earlier). Gimme two of TLaw/JJ McC/Stafford/Tua/Maye with an ADP all QB18 or later and I wouldn't be surprised to see any of them finish top 12. Sure, chances of it are less than earlier QBs; but getting them for a 5+ round discount, the cost to value is the best of any position in the 2025 draft IMO. And then spend those rounds accruing higher upside RB/WR for flex/injury/lottery ticket.
(HULK)
(Smash)
Thank you. I've been arguing this in dynasty circles, everyone is way too low on the guy. His floor was last season and that was still QB1 level.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I love this thread and look forward to it each year. It makes my work easy and many times "TD" says what is on my mind.
I might not agree with everything and we will get to some of that in future posts but I feel no need to rebuttal much because these threads allow us to see what others are thinking
That can be very useful in the Redrafts coming up soon
I applaud @travdogg for continuing to do this for many years now, it's like a security blanket for a lot of us
It cuts thru the bullspit and gets down to brass tax quickly which most of the folks who frequent this thread find refreshing
Been on the road for weeks, just finding this thread, lot to catch up on
Most of the prominent loudmouths in the Shark Pool myself included look to Travdogg to measure their POV on players
Occasionally he and I disagree and its usually involving the Miami Dolphins because I am a biased/jaded fan
I might not agree with everything and we will get to some of that in future posts but I feel no need to rebuttal much because these threads allow us to see what others are thinking
That can be very useful in the Redrafts coming up soon
I applaud @travdogg for continuing to do this for many years now, it's like a security blanket for a lot of us
It cuts thru the bullspit and gets down to brass tax quickly which most of the folks who frequent this thread find refreshing
Been on the road for weeks, just finding this thread, lot to catch up on
Most of the prominent loudmouths in the Shark Pool myself included look to Travdogg to measure their POV on players
Occasionally he and I disagree and its usually involving the Miami Dolphins because I am a biased/jaded fan
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
One question for @travdogg ...
If the justification for Trevor Lawrence at #12 is that Brian Thomas Jr. (ranked 6) and Travis Hunter (ranked 23) carry him to QB1 finish, where does Matthew Stafford shake out with Puka Nacua (ranked 5) and Davante Adams (ranked 18)? Or am I discounting Lawrence's rushing upside and passing game to the backs too much?
If the justification for Trevor Lawrence at #12 is that Brian Thomas Jr. (ranked 6) and Travis Hunter (ranked 23) carry him to QB1 finish, where does Matthew Stafford shake out with Puka Nacua (ranked 5) and Davante Adams (ranked 18)? Or am I discounting Lawrence's rushing upside and passing game to the backs too much?
Just outside the top-40. He may break out, but he also may be the #4 target on the Bears. We don't really have a template for how Ben Johnson would use an Odunze type. As a Bears fan, I will say, it worries me slightly that they felt the need to go TE/WR with their first 2 picks. Maybe that means nothing and its BPA (I like both Loveland and Burden a lot) but it also could mean they were underwhelmed with Odunze.
You pretty much nailed it. Stafford contributes nothing as a runner, and Lawrence is an above average runner.
Chaka
Footballguy
Sure, but I wish he would post it as a 37 minute video instead of a list.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Don't hate the algorithm
