2 weeks =/= trend, but 4 weeks = trend (1 Viewer)

[FF Ninja]

So we've officially hit the mark where trends mean something. What have you guys noticed that was not anticipated? There are a lot, but I'll just throw out a few to get it started by glancing at receptions and carries to see what sticks out:

Keenan - it was said he would lose too many targets to Henry and Tyrell, but he's still the apple of Rivers' eye. He's on pace for 160 targets, 96 rec, 1336 yards. His kidney and ACL are healthy and he's back at full strength. He's only 25. Easily a top 10 WR. Top 5 in PPR, IMO.

Diggs - he's an NFL and fantasy WR1. Even with Case Keenum. On pace for 128 targets, 88 rec, 1564 yards. With Cook out, his targets could increase. The guy seemed perpetually dinged up dating back to college... nothing major but just had trouble staying on the field. Good to see what he can do when fully healthy.

Thielen - can't mention Diggs without mentioning Thielen. He's also on an incredible pace: 128 targets, 96 rec, 1432 yards. Treadwell fans are going to have to be very, very patient.

Shepard - he was a surprise at #11 in receptions with 21. I guess some of this is due to the OBJ injury. Marshall still has more targets than Shepard, but isn't doing much with them. Think this is a trend that will continue or will Shepard's efficiency be rewarded? He's been playing about 100% of the snaps through 3 weeks (haven't seen week's snaps yet). 

Amari Cooper - had to scroll down to 51st to find him. What's going on here?

Lots of weirdness at WR, so plenty of other players we could discuss.

CJA - has roughly the same workload as Devaonta Freeman. Yes, JC looks like he's healthy and still good, but his touches are clearly being managed and CJA is doing just fine holding down the workhorse role. On pace for 292 carries and 40 rec. 

Abdullah - Riddick is still a thorn in his side, but maybe that is changing. In the meantime his owners will have to settle for volume over value of touches, although in week 4 he did score on a 3 yard carry (despite getting his in the backfield at the 5) and got more targets than Riddick. He's making people miss and getting YAC. He's on pace for 264 carries and 36 rec. 

Gurley - on pace for 344 carries and 80 rec... but on a decent offense this time. Think he misses Jeff Fisher?

Not much else terribly notable among the top 20 RBs. Gordon and Crowell are both seeing lower usage and lower ypc than anticipated. Ty Montgomery has been dominating snaps, but his 3.3 ypc leaves something to be desired. 

Ertz - they said he's just a week 17 champion, it'll never carry over. Well, here he is leading the league in TE rec and yards. On pace for 144 targets, 104 rec, and 1304 yards. 

Engram - just 4 receptions separate #2 from #9, but Engram has caught on quickly in NE with 19 through 4 games. He's been pretty consistent with never less than 4 receptions so far. 

TE is mostly a mess with injuries to Olsen, Reed, and Eifert and slow starts for Jimmy Graham and Rudolph along with the every-other-week disappearing act by Hunter Henry.

 

[davearm]

I was curious to see if 3 consecutive weeks of roughly 5-70-1 is enough of a trend for folks to call Chris Hogan a legit WR2, or whether he's still seen as a TD-dependent WR3/flex guy.

 

[gabes1919]

RB

Thompson - incomplete because we need to see tonight but he may be 2015 Danny Woodhead in terms of his usage and importance to the team.

Abdullah - must agree with the work and Riddick is getting less and less each week.

Duke Johnson - he consistently has more snaps, averaging 5 catches/game and is getting the odd TD here and there. I wish they would give him more carries but this team is always trailing and Duke looks like the first read. Love him, I see him overtaking this backfield (if he hasn't already) and Crowell walking next year.

Seahawks - even when you think you know, you don't. Sucks

Saints - AP is obsolete, Ingram is the early downs with some catches here and there, Kamara is the primary 3rd down back. It may not be the most productive situation for fantasy but I think it's clear now.

Lynch - no longer a bell cow and no longer even that good. People who drafted him have made a mistake and I don't think the Raiders will correct it. They will continue with that cruel 3 headed freak show until someone makes their heads explode.

WR

Chicago - avoid them unless you have to. Too much inconsistency week to week

Arizona - one of those 3 guys behid Fitz is going to have a big week but you'll never know which

Rams - same deal, best match up will have the best week and you'll be damned if you can guess.

Hopkins - this is what we thought we were getting last year with Osweiler coming in. The man is a target animal and Fuller is just going to help him get open even more. Enjoy the ride, Hopkins believers deserve it.

Hogan - he is everything Brady wants in a WR. Cooks owners can cry and Amendola owners can argue but 4 TDs on the year don't lie. Hogan could be a WR1 by year's end.

Pryor - we've all been fooled. He's not who we thought he was. He just hasn't looked like the type of guy we wanted him to develope into. He has speed and not a whole lot else has shown.

Cooper - just to echo, what is going on with him. Evans had the dropsies in his second year but not like this. That whole offense looks shot.

TE

Clay - he is the offense now. McCoy is fine but is facing ridiculously tough fronts. Clay will be last year's Pitta.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Diggs - he's an NFL and fantasy WR1. Even with Case Keenum. On pace for 128 targets, 88 rec, 1564 yards. With Cook out, his targets could increase. The guy seemed perpetually dinged up dating back to college... nothing major but just had trouble staying on the field. Good to see what he can do when fully healthy.

I like Diggs, but the worrisome thing is that he's done this through 4 games every year, and failed to continue it every year, yet he is still being moved right now at strong WR1 prices.

Here is his pace through 4 games each of his seasons so far:

2015: 100 rec, 1676 yards
2016: 100 rec, 1488 yards
2017: 88 rec, 1564 yards

Obviously he failed to continue that pace each of the previous two years.  He certainly looks the part, and injuries probably played a role in that, but people seem to be wowed by this start this year thinking it solidifies him as a strong WR1.  However, the reality is it's not even his best 4 game start and he has a history of fading after 4 games.

CJA is very much the same.  With both guys there is a legitimate concern that they are just in the first step of the same trend they've repeated so many times before (starting strong, then fading) that does not really seem like it is getting factored into their value.

 

[FF Ninja]

I like Diggs, but the worrisome thing is that he's done this through 4 games every year, and failed to continue it every year, yet he is still be moved right now at strong WR1 prices.

Here is his pace through 4 games each of his seasons so far:

2015: 100 rec, 1676 yards
2016: 100 rec, 1488 yards
2017: 88 rec, 1564 yards

Obviously he failed to continue that pace each of the previous two years.  He certainly looks the part, and injuries probably played a role in that, but people seem to be wowed by this start this year thinking it solidifies him as a strong WR1.  However\ the reality is it's not even his best 4 game start and he has a history of fading after 4 games.

CJA is very much the same.  With both guys there is a legitimate concern that they are just in the first step of the same trend they've repeated so many times before (starting strong, then fading) that does not really seem like it is getting factored into their value.

Excellent point. His injuries still worry me, but the fact that he's putting up these yards with Keenum makes me feel better about him continuing at or near this pace if he can stay healthy. I think the OL play has improved this year which lets Diggs run more varied routes. The OL play last year led to Bradford checking down and the OC calling more possession routes for Diggs.

Like you said CJA is similar. His hot starts and then subsequent fades are directly the result of injuries. This might sound weird, but I think WR injury trends are more telling than RB trends (depending on the type of injury). RBs are more prone to get rolled up on or tackled strangely so their injuries are often unpredictable. However, if a WR is missing time due to a hamstring, calf, groin, etc, it is often just his body rather than an unlucky hit. So I don't really think CJA is at much more risk to get injured than any other RB, but I do think Diggs is more likely to miss time than other WRs. 

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Kamara - 230 YFS/2 TD's.  Ingram has a role, but Payton's man crush is this guy.

Dez - 16 receptions/40 targets.  Two ways to look at this but the volume is there.

Fournette - On pace for 372 touches...hasn't been explosive, but high floor.  Can he withstand that level of NFL workload though?

Melvin - 67 touches (16.8/game).  Was a breakout in 2016 because of volume (22.7 touches).  And career YPC is awful.

Martavis - 10 receptions.  I don't think this offense truly takes off until BB/Martavis connection 'hits'.

 

[Interseptopus]

Shepard - he was a surprise at #11 in receptions with 21. I guess some of this is due to the OBJ injury. Marshall still has more targets than Shepard, but isn't doing much with them. Think this is a trend that will continue or will Shepard's efficiency be rewarded? He's been playing about 100% of the snaps through 3 weeks (haven't seen week's snaps yet). 

Everyone panicked when they signed Marshall. I never do this, but I took a lot of flack for suggesting Marshall will amount to nothing that I feel I deserve a pat on the back for being right on this one

 

[zamboni]

You may not want Eli Manning as your real-life QB, but in a lost season for the Giants where he will throw, throw and throw some more, he may have by far his best fantasy season.

And now he scores rushing TDs!

 

[Interseptopus]

Excellent point. His injuries still worry me, but the fact that he's putting up these yards with Keenum makes me feel better about him continuing at or near this pace if he can stay healthy. I think the OL play has improved this year which lets Diggs run more varied routes. The OL play last year led to Bradford checking down and the OC calling more possession routes for Diggs.

I do think Diggs is more likely to miss time than other WRs. 

This confuses me... 

He was hurt in 2016 with a groin strain, then strained his knee, and his groin again. The case could be made that he never recovered from the original groin strain, hurt his knee as a result, and then re-strained his groin in December. 

By all accounts he should be fully healed at this point

You say that Allen is a "top 5 WR"... but he has a way more significant injury history than Diggs. Allen has as many games over the last 3 seasons combined as Diggs played last season... For some reason a pulled groin from 1 year ago "worries you" but a torn ACL and lacerated kidney don't!?

FWIW... Allen pulled his groin in 2014. Might want to change your mind... that groin strain might still be lingering

According to the two links above, Allen has 2x more chance to miss time due to injury than Diggs. 

Also, looking at Allen's history... he has a tendency to get all of these injuries landing... the guy doesn't know how to land properly without hurting himself

 

[FF Ninja]

This confuses me... 

He was hurt in 2016 with a groin strain, then strained his knee, and his groin again. The case could be made that he never recovered from the original groin strain, hurt his knee as a result, and then re-strained his groin in December. 

By all accounts he should be fully healed at this point

Dating back to college, I don't think he's ever played a full season. So maybe my wording wording was confusing... I'm not sure, but what I was trying to say is that after 4-5 straight years with some sort of injury, I'm not counting on this year being the one he avoids injury. I like Diggs a lot, but I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up being the next Hakeem Nicks or Miles Austin.

 

[Dizzy]

I like Diggs, but the worrisome thing is that he's done this through 4 games every year, and failed to continue it every year, yet he is still being moved right now at strong WR1 prices.

Here is his pace through 4 games each of his seasons so far:

2015: 100 rec, 1676 yards
2016: 100 rec, 1488 yards
2017: 88 rec, 1564 yards

Obviously he failed to continue that pace each of the previous two years.  He certainly looks the part, and injuries probably played a role in that, but people seem to be wowed by this start this year thinking it solidifies him as a strong WR1.  However\ the reality is it's not even his best 4 game start and he has a history of fading after 4 games.

CJA is very much the same.  With both guys there is a legitimate concern that they are just in the first step of the same trend they've repeated so many times before (starting strong, then fading) that does not really seem like it is getting factored into their value.

I worry more about the entire MIN offense without an effective running game (again) now that Cook is gone.

First glance says that Diggs (and Thielen) will see increased targets, but not if the offense spends less time on the field going forward (3&out, 3&out, etc.).

 

[Interseptopus]

Dating back to college, I don't think he's ever played a full season. So maybe my wording wording was confusing... I'm not sure, but what I was trying to say is that after 4-5 straight years with some sort of injury, I'm not counting on this year being the one he avoids injury. I like Diggs a lot, but I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up being the next Hakeem Nicks or Miles Austin.

He's more likely than any other WR to miss time... yet Allen is a top 5 WR ROS in yuor opinion... just doesn't make sense. Go back to college for Allen too... tore his PCL, fractured an ankle (Allen has a 5 year history of injury every season)

 

[Interseptopus]

I worry more about the entire MIN offense without an effective running game (again) now that Cook is gone.

First glance says that Diggs (and Thielen) will see increased targets, but not if the offense spends less time on the field going forward (3&out, 3&out, etc.).

Cook absolutely helped Diggs and Thielen out. I think Murray can be servicable but not as dynamic as Cook. That hurts big time. Cook was a threat in the rush and pass, opening things up for Diggs. More targets, but I think that hurts Thielen more than Diggs; Diggs finds ways to get open. However yes, this is bad news regardless. 

 

[FF Ninja]

He's more likely than any other WR to miss time... yet Allen is a top 5 WR ROS in yuor opinion... just doesn't make sense. Go back to college for Allen too... tore his PCL, fractured an ankle

Bone injuries don't worry me AT ALL unless you start to see a Kevin White-esque trend emerging. PCL's are typically the result of unfortunate tackles (although I don't know about Keenan's in particular). The narrative that Keenan is injury prone always annoys the hell out of me. I mean, ACL tears happen. If they happen to the same guy twice then maybe it's a trend, but then again didn't Gore tear both ACLs in college to never again have a knee issue? Keenan gets the label because of a lacerated kidney one year and an ACL the very next year which caused a lot of missed time. Had these injuries happened late in the season he'd probably get a pass. Same with everyone calling Abdullah injury prone after one single missed time injury in six years. It's all about timing.

For Diggs it seems like it's always something nagging that's keeping him as questionable throughout the week and then you have to wonder if you're going to start him if he plays. To me, I'd rather just have the guy out for the season than to start him where he's a ghost of himself - I think that's largely what has caused these drop offs after hot starts. Plus, I recall reading scouting reports citing durability as a reason he'd fall in the draft, so I guess I'm just wary about him. I'm not giving him away where I've got him, but I've definitely been scanning teams with injuries and guys like Amari Cooper...

 

[Interseptopus]

Bone injuries don't worry me AT ALL unless you start to see a Kevin White-esque trend emerging. PCL's are typically the result of unfortunate tackles (although I don't know about Keenan's in particular). The narrative that Keenan is injury prone always annoys the hell out of me. I mean, ACL tears happen. If they happen to the same guy twice then maybe it's a trend, but then again didn't Gore tear both ACLs in college to never again have a knee issue? Keenan gets the label because of a lacerated kidney one year and an ACL the very next year which caused a lot of missed time. Had these injuries happened late in the season he'd probably get a pass. Same with everyone calling Abdullah injury prone after one single missed time injury in six years. It's all about timing.

For Diggs it seems like it's always something nagging that's keeping him as questionable throughout the week and then you have to wonder if you're going to start him if he plays. To me, I'd rather just have the guy out for the season than to start him where he's a ghost of himself - I think that's largely what has caused these drop offs after hot starts. Plus, I recall reading scouting reports citing durability as a reason he'd fall in the draft, so I guess I'm just wary about him. I'm not giving him away where I've got him, but I've definitely been scanning teams with injuries and guys like Amari Cooper...

1. So you're saying a 1 year old groin strain concerns you more than an ACL tear? 

You're incorrect on Allen...

Sep 11, 2016NFLKnee ACL Tear Grade 3Keenan Allen tore his ACL in Week 1, and missed the rest of the 2016 season.

Nov 1, 2015NFLAbdomen Kidney BruiseAllen came down for a touchdown pass hard on his back and lacerated his kidney. He had to undergo surgery and was placed on IR.

Oct 18, 2015NFLInguinal Hip SprainKeenan Allen suffered a minor hip strain which sidelined him for one quarter but was able to return to the following week's action.

Dec 14, 2014NFLPedal Ankle Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1Allen got pulled awkwardly in his Week 15 game against the Broncos and had to leave with a sprained ankle and fractured collarbone. He missed the final 2 games of the season.

Dec 14, 2014NFLShoulder Clavical FractureAllen got pulled awkwardly in his Week 15 game against the Broncos and had to leave with a sprained ankle and fractured collarbone. He missed the final 2 games of the season.

Oct 5, 2014NFLInguinal Groin Pull Grade 1Allen suffered a Grade 1 groin pull but wasn't forced to miss any games because of it.

Dec 8, 2013NFLShoulder A/C Joint SprainAllen fell on his shoulder awkwardly during Week 14 and strained his A/C joint but didn't miss any games as a result.

Nov 17, 2013NFLKnee Strain Grade 1Allen strained his knee but was unaffected by the injury.

Oct 27, 2012Non-NFLKnee PCL Tear Grade 3During college, Allen tore his PCL in his left knee ruling him out for 3 games.

Mar 1, 2012Non-NFLPedal Ankle FractureAllen fractured his ankle in a basketball game in 2012 but didn't miss any games as a result.

Allen I count:
Organ/internal injury: 1
Bone injury: 2
Soft tissue injury (strains, sprains, tears): 7

Diggs I count:
Soft tissue injury (strains, sprains, tears): 3 (2 were the exact same injury just aggravated)

The math just doesn't add up, but sure keep your stock in Allen- it's clear you have some. 

 

[FF Ninja]

Everyone panicked when they signed Marshall. I never do this, but I took a lot of flack for suggesting Marshall will amount to nothing that I feel I deserve a pat on the back for being right on this one

Did you call Shepard as a WR2? If so (and it comes true) I'll stand in line to give you a pat on the back. I was a big Shepard fan until they gave Marshall that starting job. He's still only on pace for 108 targets despite Eli being on pace for 664 attempts, so I'm not as pumped about him as I once was... but there's a chance. Marshall has out targeted him the past two weeks for some unknown reason. And Odell hasn't been very efficient with his targets, either. 10-6-46 for Marshall in week 4, OBJ was 15-7-90, while Shepard was 5-5-54. Maybe McAdoo notices and makes an effort to utilize him more, but I'm not counting on it yet.

 

[Skoo]

You may not want Eli Manning as your real-life QB, but in a lost season for the Giants where he will throw, throw and throw some more, he may have by far his best fantasy season.

And now he scores rushing TDs!

This is all well and good, just know that the week he plays Cleveland at home in a week you need to win he will put up 126 yards passing, 0 TDs and 3 INTs.

He's one of those guys that looks like he had a decent season at the end, but you can never confidently start week-to-week.

 

[zamboni]

Getting back to the topic at hand, it seems like Wentz and Watson seem to have gotten it in terms of both NFL and fantasy. 

Quite possible we see some changing of the guard in terms of the top 10 QBs.

 

[zamboni]

This is all well and good, just know that the week he plays Cleveland at home in a week you need to win he will put up 126 yards passing, 0 TDs and 3 INTs.

He's one of those guys that looks like he had a decent season at the end, but you can never confidently start week-to-week.

Too true, but this is one of the worst teams they've had in recent memory - only the passing game seems to be the positive. A lot more catch up situations and if he's throwing the ball 40-50 times, the passing numbers will accumulate.

 

[Interseptopus]

Did you call Shepard as a WR2? If so (and it comes true) I'll stand in line to give you a pat on the back. I was a big Shepard fan until they gave Marshall that starting job. He's still only on pace for 108 targets despite Eli being on pace for 664 attempts, so I'm not as pumped about him as I once was... but there's a chance. Marshall has out targeted him the past two weeks for some unknown reason. And Odell hasn't been very efficient with his targets, either. 10-6-46 for Marshall in week 4, OBJ was 15-7-90, while Shepard was 5-5-54. Maybe McAdoo notices and makes an effort to utilize him more, but I'm not counting on it yet.

I was just going back in my archives to find the exact quote. I may have time yet to find it but I got through the month of March and it was mostly Packer talk. One person I did find who was bummed about Marshall and thought he'd do well was you. I think you said "he didn't come to NYG for 115 targets" or something along those lines. 

I believe my statement/prediction was something along the lines of that I did not think Marshall would amount to much in NY and I felt that Shepard would emerge with better stats than Marshall. I am not so sure I called him a WR2 specifically as much as I felt like he'd be a startable fantasy WR. 

 

[FF Ninja]

1. So you're saying a 1 year old groin strain concerns you more than an ACL tear? 

You're incorrect on Allen...

Allen I count:
Organ/internal injury: 1
Bone injury: 2
Soft tissue injury (strains, sprains, tears): 7

Diggs I count:
Soft tissue injury (strains, sprains, tears): 3 (2 were the exact same injury just aggravated)

The math just doesn't add up, but sure keep your stock in Allen- it's clear you have some. 

No doubt on the bolded. I've been pretty vocal about him the past 2 offseasons. All in!   I like how you are counting a groin pull that never impacted Allen as well as a shoulder injury. If the injury doesn't limit a player, I don't worry about it. If the injury is from an awkward tackle, I don't worry about it. Nagging soft tissue injuries, those worry me. Lacerated internal organs... not even worth talking about.

But if you want to ignore the fact that Diggs couldn't stay healthy in college which caused a lot of NFL scouts to take pause and pretend like I'm only worried about last year's groin injury then you can just keep arguing against that straw man all day. It is amusing me. I'm hoping it is nothing since I've got some Diggs stock, but it should concern everyone. (so that is the long answer to your silly question at the top. The short answer is "no, there's obviously more that concerns me")

 

[Interseptopus]

No doubt on the bolded. I've been pretty vocal about him the past 2 offseasons. All in!   I like how you are counting a groin pull that never impacted Allen as well as a shoulder injury. If the injury doesn't limit a player, I don't worry about it. If the injury is from an awkward tackle, I don't worry about it. Nagging soft tissue injuries, those worry me. Lacerated internal organs... not even worth talking about.

But if you want to ignore the fact that Diggs couldn't stay healthy in college which caused a lot of NFL scouts to take pause and pretend like I'm only worried about last year's groin injury then you can just keep arguing against that straw man all day. It is amusing me. I'm hoping it is nothing since I've got some Diggs stock, but it should concern everyone. (so that is the long answer to your silly question at the top. The short answer is "no, there's obviously more that concerns me")

He left one game early because of an injury and the other one he wasn't limited. Yeah, not as concerning, but still a yellow flag on a guy for an injury history. 

2012: As a freshman Diggs missed 1 game due to an ankle injury
2013: As a sophomore he suffered a season ending injury midway through (broken fibula)
2014: His last season as a junior, he played every game until Penn state where he he finished a game with a lacerated Kidney . This ended his season


So since we don't worry about bone injuries or lacerated kidneys, clearly Allen still has him beat 

 

[FF Ninja]

I was just going back in my archives to find the exact quote. I may have time yet to find it but I got through the month of March and it was mostly Packer talk. One person I did find who was bummed about Marshall and thought he'd do well was you. I think you said "he didn't come to NYG for 115 targets" or something along those lines. 

I believe my statement/prediction was something along the lines of that I did not think Marshall would amount to much in NY and I felt that Shepard would emerge with better stats than Marshall. I am not so sure I called him a WR2 specifically as much as I felt like he'd be a startable fantasy WR. 

Yeah, I think I just specifically said that I was high on Shepard until they signed Marshall. And Marshall is currently on pace for 120 targets. Good or not, he's holding Shepard back. And I think if you keep reading whatever thread that was, I don't think you'll see me say anything positive about Marshall. IIRC, I just held the opinion that he signed with NY to start and to get targets. He didn't sign expecting to be the WR3.

I hope they correct course, because that team is painful to watch. However, I don't have a lot of confidence. This is a team that ignored the OL, spent money on a 33 yo Marshall, and went into week 1 with Paul Perkins as their RB1. Their priorities are hard to understand. But I'm very happy to see Shepard not totally getting pushed to the side.

 

[Buckna]

I was just going back in my archives to find the exact quote. I may have time yet to find it but I got through the month of March and it was mostly Packer talk. One person I did find who was bummed about Marshall and thought he'd do well was you. I think you said "he didn't come to NYG for 115 targets" or something along those lines. 

I believe my statement/prediction was something along the lines of that I did not think Marshall would amount to much in NY and I felt that Shepard would emerge with better stats than Marshall. I am not so sure I called him a WR2 specifically as much as I felt like he'd be a startable fantasy WR. 

As a Shepherd owner in dynasty I felt he was a distinct hold after the Marshall signing. I think it was in the Marshall thread that someone posted the metrics, but he was one of the worst WR's in the league in advanced stats last year as a Jet, he looked very much like Andre Johnson's last year in Houston where volume alone masked some of the decline.

I was more worried about the drafting of Engram though. He plus Marshall have really cut into that target pie but Shepherd has done a lot better than I expected this year despite that.

 

[FF Ninja]

He left one game early because of an injury and the other one he wasn't limited. Yeah, not as concerning, but still a yellow flag on a guy for an injury history. 

As a freshman Diggs missed 1 game due to an ankle injury
As a sophomore he suffered a season ending injury midway through (broken fibula)
His last season as a junior, he played every game until Penn state where he he finished a game with a lacerated Kidney . This ended his season


So since we don't worry about bone injuries or lacerated kidneys, clearly Allen still has him beat 

Thanks for digging up his college injuries. I honestly feel a lot better now about being a Diggs owner. 

 

[Interseptopus]

Thanks for digging up his college injuries. I honestly feel a lot better now about being a Diggs owner. 

I'm more impressed he came back in on the next series bleeding from his kidneys... 

 

[FF Ninja]

Getting back to the topic at hand, it seems like Wentz and Watson seem to have gotten it in terms of both NFL and fantasy. 

Quite possible we see some changing of the guard in terms of the top 10 QBs.

Who do you think has lost it?

 

[FF Ninja]

I'm more impressed he came back in on the next series bleeding from his kidneys... 

If you like that I've got some random trivia for you... Chris Sims (replacement level QB from the mid-2000s) finished a game with like a ruptured spleen or something like that. I remember reading about it and being impressed with him for gutting it out. That's a guy who didn't want to lose his job!

 

[Interseptopus]

If you like that I've got some random trivia for you... Chris Sims (replacement level QB from the mid-2000s) finished a game with like a ruptured spleen or something like that. I remember reading about it and being impressed with him for gutting it out. That's a guy who didn't want to lose his job!

I remember that... that's even more crazy. I always get him and Charles confused... I catch myself typing Chris instead of Charles at times. Same team makes it even worse. 

 

[FF Ninja]

As a Shepherd owner in dynasty I felt he was a distinct hold after the Marshall signing. I think it was in the Marshall thread that someone posted the metrics, but he was one of the worst WR's in the league in advanced stats last year as a Jet, he looked very much like Andre Johnson's last year in Houston where volume alone masked some of the decline.

I was more worried about the drafting of Engram though. He plus Marshall have really cut into that target pie but Shepherd has done a lot better than I expected this year despite that.

Totally agree. Selling him at that point would've netted pennies on the dollar. And so far this year the pie has gotten much bigger, so Sterling's smaller slice is still about the same volume as his slice last year. He'll be an interesting guy to watch as far as career arc. Kind of reminds me of Golden Tate - can play outside or slot quite well. Small, but not tiny. Good speed. By the time his contract is up, Eli will be just about done.

 

[zamboni]

Who do you think has lost it?

Speaking in terms of redraft, Luck is an obvious one due to injury. But even healthy ones, Cousins, Bortles and Flacco were all top 10 in my league last year, and they strike me as taking steps back. I could also see a reversion back to the mean with Ryan, and Stafford has a much better defense this year that may prevent a lot of shootouts.

Just speculating though at this stage.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

You may not want Eli Manning as your real-life QB, but in a lost season for the Giants where he will throw, throw and throw some more, he may have by far his best fantasy season.

And now he scores rushing TDs!

Maybe.  His current pace is well off several of his career best fantasy seasons though.  Granted he didn't have OBJ for essentially two games and it took a bit for Marshall and him to start to gel even a little bit.

I think sometimes we forget the good fantasy numbers Eli has put up in the past.  Fairly recently he had 4400/35 and 4400/31 seasons.  A few years prior to that he almost broke 5000 passing yards with 4900/29.

So far this year he is on pace for 4400/24.

 

[TeeDub]

Are we completely done with marshawn lynch? I don't think anyone was expecting a good game from him yesterday, and just Friday he was a hold for the rest of the season cause he still looked like the old beast mode

 

[gabes1919]

Are we completely done with marshawn lynch? I don't think anyone was expecting a good game from him yesterday, and just Friday he was a hold for the rest of the season cause he still looked like the old beast mode

Leastmode is more like it... He hasn't looked good for someone running behind what is supposedly the best O-line in football. He's not the 3rd down guy and defense are punishing the run because the pass has been pretty putrid with the exception of Crabtree in one game. I would be done with Lynch if I had any stock at all. He looks disinterested. He used to run like he had something to prove to every person on the field. Ever since the Superbowl when they didn't hand him the ball, he's looked like he's on the field because it's his job and not even on he particularly likes. Probably burned out and not physically what he was

 

[FF Ninja]

Are we completely done with marshawn lynch? I don't think anyone was expecting a good game from him yesterday, and just Friday he was a hold for the rest of the season cause he still looked like the old beast mode

He looked legit the first two weeks, but the offense has been terrible the past two weeks. Not sure how he's supposed to transcend a crappy offense. If Carr is not injured long term, I think Lynch is a good buy low.

 

[FF Ninja]

Speaking in terms of redraft, Luck is an obvious one due to injury. But even healthy ones, Cousins, Bortles and Flacco were all top 10 in my league last year, and they strike me as taking steps back. I could also see a reversion back to the mean with Ryan, and Stafford has a much better defense this year that may prevent a lot of shootouts.

Just speculating though at this stage.

I don't think anyone was expecting top 10 from Bortles or Flacco. I'm still skeptical about Watson. But yeah, Wentz might be sneaking into the top 10. He could be Matt Ryan-esque. 

 

[ponchsox]

Getting back to the topic at hand, it seems like Wentz and Watson seem to have gotten it in terms of both NFL and fantasy. 

Quite possible we see some changing of the guard in terms of the top 10 QBs.

Jared Goff certainly appears to be the real deal. Gets some tougher matchups starting week five.

 

[ponchsox]

I don't think anyone was expecting top 10 from Bortles or Flacco. I'm still skeptical about Watson. But yeah, Wentz might be sneaking into the top 10. He could be Matt Ryan-esque. 

The problem is Philly is kicking way too many FG. 

 

[mikel2014]

Isaiah Crowell has to be one of the biggest disappointments for me. I expected far more from Crowell than he's put up this year. I bought in to the improved o-line, increased pass catching role at the end of last year, and the expectation of workhorse role. 

On the season he has 184 yards total, rushing and receiving, to go along with 0 TDs. 25 points on the year. He's not startable at this point. 

 

[FF Ninja]

Hogan - he is everything Brady wants in a WR. Cooks owners can cry and Amendola owners can argue but 4 TDs on the year don't lie. Hogan could be a WR1 by year's end.

Yes they do! TDs are some of the sneakiest, least trustworthy buggers in the fantasy world. It is best not to chase them. Hogan only has 26 targets. Nobody is going to be a WR1 with 104 targets. You'd be lucky to get WR2 numbers from 104 targets. Amendola missed a game and Brady is on pace for 620 attempts. The numbers indicate that Hogan is a sell high.

Kamara - 230 YFS/2 TD's.  Ingram has a role, but Payton's man crush is this guy.

Dez - 16 receptions/40 targets.  Two ways to look at this but the volume is there.

Fournette - On pace for 372 touches...hasn't been explosive, but high floor.  Can he withstand that level of NFL workload though?

Melvin - 67 touches (16.8/game).  Was a breakout in 2016 because of volume (22.7 touches).  And career YPC is awful.

Martavis - 10 receptions.  I don't think this offense truly takes off until BB/Martavis connection 'hits'.

I missed this earlier, but these are good points. Dez sure appears to be a nice trade target. I'm not as high as you on Kamara, though. Ingram got 62% of the snaps to Kamara's 35% last week. As for Martavis, there just aren't enough targets to go around in Pit. JuJu is getting more play than I expected... not that I drafted Martavis - I didn't, just didn't expect JuJu to be the one that stole the targets. 

 

[davearm]

Yes they do! TDs are some of the sneakiest, least trustworthy buggers in the fantasy world. It is best not to chase them. Hogan only has 26 targets. Nobody is going to be a WR1 with 104 targets. You'd be lucky to get WR2 numbers from 104 targets. Amendola missed a game and Brady is on pace for 620 attempts. The numbers indicate that Hogan is a sell high.

Your point is well taken on the targets.  The hope with Hogan has to be that he can continue to exceed whatever the league average is for TD/target.  In his role, and in that offense, it seems likely he will.

 

[FF Ninja]

Your point is well taken on the targets.  The hope with Hogan has to be that he can continue to exceed whatever the league average is for TD/target.  In his role, and in that offense, it seems likely he will.

Same could be said for Gronk, but he has more targets and half the TDs that Hogan does... The law of averages is coming for Hogan.

So far this season Brady has thrown a TD every 15.5 pass attempts (very similar to last year). Based on that, Hogan should get 78 more targets and 5 more TDs. 

 

[There it is]

- I didn't, just didn't expect JuJu to be the one that stole the targets. 

Is JuJu a pick up.

Excellent read all!

 

[FF Ninja]

Is JuJu a pick up.

I don't think so. He's not getting enough targets to be in your lineup, but he's getting enough to irk Martavis owners, I'm sure.

 

[There it is]

I don't think so. He's not getting enough targets to be in your lineup, but he's getting enough to irk Martavis owners, I'm sure.

Agree.

 

[davearm]

Same could be said for Gronk, but he has more targets and half the TDs that Hogan does... The law of averages is coming for Hogan.

So far this season Brady has thrown a TD every 15.5 pass attempts (very similar to last year). Based on that, Hogan should get 78 more targets and 5 more TDs. 

If we give Hogan 70 yards a game (i.e. 840 yards ROS) and 5 total TDs for the remaining 12 games, that's 114 standard points, or 9.5 ppg.  At 60 yards a game, it's 8.5 ppg.

In last week's top 200 forward, 9.5 ppg was good for WR8.  8.5 was good for WR17.  Even with some regression in TDs, he's still a borderline WR1 in a 12-teamer (assuming the yards hold up).

 

[The Hank]

Martavis - 10 receptions.  I don't think this offense truly takes off until BB/Martavis connection 'hits'.

Stat line doesn't show it, but they appeared to be more in sync - almost connected on a long TD pass (Martvis had about 3-5 yds of separation on corner but Ben overthrew him)

 

[FF Ninja]

If we give Hogan 70 yards a game (i.e. 840 yards ROS) and 5 total TDs for the remaining 12 games, that's 114 standard points, or 9.5 ppg.  At 60 yards a game, it's 8.5 ppg.

In last week's top 200 forward, 9.5 ppg was good for WR8.  8.5 was good for WR17.  Even with some regression in TDs, he's still a borderline WR1 in a 12-teamer (assuming the yards hold up).

WR17 =/= WR1 in 12 teamer, but more importantly, why are we giving him 60 or 70 yards a game? He's averaging 53.5 yards per game at a very respectable 14.3 ypr. I see no reason for that to change. So what I'm seeing is 7.85 ppg going forward.

 

[The Hank]

I don't think so. He's not getting enough targets to be in your lineup, but he's getting enough to irk Martavis owners, I'm sure.

Homer here - I'm adding him.

He is the clear #3/slot option for the Steelers (Eli Rogers was a healthy scratch this week) - steadily increasing his route %'s and is gaining team's trust in his devastating run blocking skills.

Running script has been exaggerated past few games to get Le'Veon on track - with attention being on AB and Martavis stretching the field, with TE's struggling - his #'s could increase

 

[davearm]

WR17 =/= WR1 in 12 teamer, but more importantly, why are we giving him 60 or 70 yards a game? He's averaging 53.5 yards per game at a very respectable 14.3 ypr. I see no reason for that to change. So what I'm seeing is 7.85 ppg going forward.

If you tell me at a given range of projections, a guy will fall between WR8 and WR17, I'd call that guy a borderline WR1.

Anyway, you had him at 78 more targets.  In 19 games with NE, Hogan has averaged 10.6 yards per target.  10.6 x 78 = 830 yards, plus 5 TDs = 113 points = 9.4 ppg.