2006 Debriefing (1 Viewer)

[Jene Bramel]

Everybody loves pointing out the great calls they made that pushed them to win titles. Nobody likes having their mistakes paraded for everybody to see. Still, if you really want to hone your IDP horse sense, examining faulty analysis and missed opportunities is the best way to improve your IDP skills.

Who did you miss badly on in 2006? Which players did you vastly over or underestimate? Which players still have you flummoxed over their 2006 production?

What lessons have you learned (or want to learn) for 2007?

 

[pacman_fl]

This was my first year that I played in a league requiring IDP's so I have been amazed at the analysis involved on the defensive side. As I have mentioned in other posts, the insight, analysis and advice offered in this forum was what got me through the year (and hopefully set better for next year). Since it was a last minute decsion to join this league I only utilized projections from 1 site and went from there. I think the positive for me was that I waited on the defensive side and loaded up on offense. Luckily, none of my early offensive players were busts but many of the early IDP's were.

Just like offensive drafts, I learned you don't necessarily win with your early/stud IDP picks but rather the later value, upside picks or free agents. The next step for me is identifying those 2nd string young guys (I'm in a dynasty) or late season starters (Cooper, Gaither, Jeanty for example - who I picked up because of here) who have an opportunity to shine next year. I also learned a good NFL DT is not a good fantasy play (per se), OLB's can have great weeks but you need consistency and CB's (based on my scoring system) are a wasted spot for the most part. Lastly, I am curious to see what happens with some of the potentional "on the move" players (June, Briggs, Barnett?).

I will say that I have talked to buddies of mine who are long time fantasy players but have never competed in an IDP league and have told them all that the format has re-energized my "fantasy motor" and made me appreciate watching an NFL game even more than before.

Special thanks to you Jene for the terrific job you do here. BTW - I had asked about your subscriber info in a separate post. Based on the value here (plus your comments) I am a new subscriber even though I swore I would NEVER use any service. Looking forward to those IDP Dynasty ranking updates.

 

[Jestefarean]

I'm in a dynasty league with a full D and I learned (as I seem to relearn every year) to be weary of the hype. I seem to fall into the trap of trading solid veterans for potential every year...and while some folks always live up to potential for every Hali, Ryans, and Hawk there are tons of also-rans who we all loved during preseason. I'm going to try and remember to limit my number of "risks" next year.

 

[msommer]

I missed badly on Crowder when I traded him for a RB that did squat. I could have really used him when Spikes underwhelmed and Thurman got suspended for the year.

 

[Colt Of Personality]

I missed badly on Crowder when I traded him for a RB that did squat. I could have really used him when Spikes underwhelmed and Thurman got suspended for the year.

My story is somewhat the opposite of yours and has a happier ending. Though I have been playing this game for something like 25 yrs, I still tend to "fall in love" with certain rookies right after the NFL rookie draft. This year was no different. The player was LB Chad Greenway.

Long story short was I missed out on drafting him and tried to trade MY 2nd round rookie pick, Maurice Jones-Drew, in every conceivable trade which would give me the players needed to get me Greenway, but in the end - the team who owned him would not budge.

Well, Greenway gets a season ending injury and Jones-Drew can be mentioned in the same breath with "rookie of the year"

I guess the moral of the story is TRY to wait until you see where these rookies fit in before making quick decisions. I might have been kicking myself all season long.

 

[stevegamer]

I learned that IDP depth is really handy in a deep league, however, you need to have players that you're willing to simply drop when they get hurt.

There's not a lot you can do when you lose lots of players to IR - I had been scrambling for weeks due to injuries, and a benching or two.

I no longer want to have 6 young guys I love for dynasty at a position where I can only start 4 - I then need to drop some of them, and that's not a comfortable feeling, knowing you're dropping a player who will help someone else.

 

[dapace2]

DBs are plentiful.

You've got about 20 who separate themselves with consistent high scoring, but then there's 60 more who seem to have similar type potential.

This means there is almost always decent scoring DBs available on the waiver wire.

What I learned is to not use up very many roster spots because my 6 & 7 DBs are the same as the top 5 FA DBs.

 

[Musesboy]

Everybody loves pointing out the great calls they made that pushed them to win titles. Nobody likes having their mistakes paraded for everybody to see. Still, if you really want to hone your IDP horse sense, examining faulty analysis and missed opportunities is the best way to improve your IDP skills.Who did you miss badly on in 2006? Which players did you vastly over or underestimate? Which players still have you flummoxed over their 2006 production? What lessons have you learned (or want to learn) for 2007?

I have four years of IDP experience and feel that I have learned a few things, but I still think of myself as a novice.1) I don't have the instinctive feel for defense like I believe I have with offense. There are offensive players that aren't starters, but obviously have talent. I have mental lists and know who I think may emerge when given the chance. All my defensive knowledge is made up of the opinions of others and my own depth of knowledge simply isn't there.2) Things change fast in the IDP world. A player that looks like a young stud can quickly drop off the following season. I believe that there are several reasons for that. We tend to think in fantasy terms, and we look at production rather than the actual talent of a player. With defense, a weak NFL player can be a good fantasy player. The scheme played by the team can have a huge effect. The overall strength of the team is also a factor. Many of the stud LBs have played for teams that were regular losers. Teams just run on them every game after gaining the lead. I keep thinking of Vilma. He was possibly the most valuable fantasy player on IDP teams last year, and a young stud for dynasty purposes. The Jets switched schemes and that hurt him immediately. To make things worse, they got competitive and started winning some games. Opponents couldn't run all over them as in the previous year. The Colts are another example. It's hard for Freeney to get sacks when all the QB does is hand off in an attempt to keep Manning and the offense off the field for as long as possible. So be very careful when trading offense for defense in a dynasty format.3) Great defensive players can play at a high level for a long time.4) An almost unknown backup can produce in the right situation when given the chance.5) There are very few elite DEs, but they are extremely valuable if you can get them. LBs and DBs are much easier to obtain through the waiver wire or rookie draft.6) Rookies can produce immediately if given the starting role in the right situation.7) Some dynasty studs can be demoted by their NFL team, even if we are blinded by their fantasy production. Michael Lewis and Michael Boulware quickly lost value due to that this year.

 

[Biabreakable]

I would say the main thing I have learned this year actualy happened just recently in duscussion of role seperation between LILB and RILB in 3-4 defenses with Jene in the Andra Davis thread. I think it is a very important distinction to look at and evaluate as so many teams have made the shift to 3-4 from 4-3 recently as coaching hires from the Patriots as well as other teams copying the Patriots scheme has caused this shift.

I plan to do a historical study of the numbers and see how many times the LILB does indeed score more than the RILB. If this has allready been done than please let me know about it before I commit the time to doing it.

There was a time back in the 80s and early to mid 90s when the 3-4 defense was more prevalent in the league. IIRC over half of the teams in the NFL were using it and almost all of the AFC teams were using it during that time. It then faded to a point that almost no teams were using it anymore. Cowhlers Steelers being one of the few teams that still employed the defense. I think the Steelers were really able to take advantage of this during that time frame as the personel they needed for the defense were not in high demand throughout the league with most teams using a 4-3 but that is not so much the case for them anymore. And the chin may be leaving the Steelers after this season now which could lead to a shift in thier teams scheme, philosophy and personel.

I am not clear if the 3-4 defenses being used today are the same as those that were used a decade ago however. For example the Bills 3-4 defense back then had Bruce Smith as thier dominant RDE and did not blitz thier ROLB as often as other 3-4 defense may be doing so today. IIRC Cornelius Bennett was used most often as a coverage multi purpose ROLB while the Bills would use other OLBs such as Bryce Paup as primarily pass rushers from the strong side of the defense giving balance to the alignment with pressure on the Qb coming from both sides.

I am not sure how easy it will be to find defensive statistics from this long ago either. If anyone has suggestion for a good resource for this it would be much apprechiated.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Great thread so far. In no particular order, here's what I learned this year.

I've got a long way to go to get my redraft chops back. In particular, if you're going to use a strategy in which you try to corner the market on IDP studs in a redraft league, you better get some studs.

Stick to your guns when doing scheme analysis but don't jump to conclusions to fit your personal biases when there are extenuating factors. Just because the Jack LB role in Dallas has been good in the past doesn't mean it'll make a stud out of Akin Ayodele. And don't even get me started on AJ Hawk or Chris Hope. Yeesh.

When in doubt about conflicting rookie scouting reports, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, trust Bloom. He knows things.

Don't give up on "official" depth charts when they're wrong at first glance. There's still valuable information to be gleaned. I was only with Rovers part way on the Vilma thing. Had I paid enough attention to the botched Jet gamebooks, I would've been with him all the way. And avoided taking Vilma in a couple of redraft situations.

I'm not sure I buy this one yet but it's been pleasantly surprising to me. Looking over my performance in the Coaches Corner threads, I think it may be possible to predict the relative success of a given IDP in any given week with some idea of the scheme, the gameplan, the surrounding cast, and the trends of similar players. It's also entirely possible that I'm a lucky SOB who should quit while he's ahead.

On the other hand, I think the key is "relative" success. I think if I tried to project 12-15 players per team per week as Norton does that I'd fail miserably and want to disembowel myself in the process.

 

[chook]

I have four years of IDP experience and feel that I have learned a few things, but I still think of myself as a novice.1) I don't have the instinctive feel for defense like I believe I have with offense. There are offensive players that aren't starters, but obviously have talent. I have mental lists and know who I think may emerge when given the chance. All my defensive knowledge is made up of the opinions of others and my own depth of knowledge simply isn't there.2) Things change fast in the IDP world. A player that looks like a young stud can quickly drop off the following season. I believe that there are several reasons for that. We tend to think in fantasy terms, and we look at production rather than the actual talent of a player. With defense, a weak NFL player can be a good fantasy player. The scheme played by the team can have a huge effect. The overall strength of the team is also a factor. Many of the stud LBs have played for teams that were regular losers. Teams just run on them every game after gaining the lead. I keep thinking of Vilma. He was possibly the most valuable fantasy player on IDP teams last year, and a young stud for dynasty purposes. The Jets switched schemes and that hurt him immediately. To make things worse, they got competitive and started winning some games. Opponents couldn't run all over them as in the previous year. The Colts are another example. It's hard for Freeney to get sacks when all the QB does is hand off in an attempt to keep Manning and the offense off the field for as long as possible. So be very careful when trading offense for defense in a dynasty format.3) Great defensive players can play at a high level for a long time.4) An almost unknown backup can produce in the right situation when given the chance.5) There are very few elite DEs, but they are extremely valuable if you can get them. LBs and DBs are much easier to obtain through the waiver wire or rookie draft.6) Rookies can produce immediately if given the starting role in the right situation.7) Some dynasty studs can be demoted by their NFL team, even if we are blinded by their fantasy production. Michael Lewis and Michael Boulware quickly lost value due to that this year.

Actually, excellent posting. Excellent thread.

 

[Musesboy]

Actually, excellent posting. Excellent thread.

Thanks

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

So many things to talk about... A few that come to mind immediately:

1) Watch out for former DEs at DT in leagues that break that position out on its own. Vonnie Holliday was a revelation for me in a couple of leagues, and Cory Redding and Raheem Brock were also excellent everyweek plays at DT (Redding, once he switched to DT)

2) My bias for talent over hustle and motor really hurt me in the my DE assessments. Among others, I had Aaron Kampman, Jared Allen, and Tamba Hali too low, and Adewale Ogunleye and Dwight Freeney too high.

3) Time to stop automatically discounting 3-4 OLBs. Shawne Merriman and Demarcus Ware saw to that, and Kamerion Wimbley is right on their heels. There's a new crop in the pipeline this year with guys like Anthony Spencer and Lamarr Woodley coming soon to your QBs neighborhood.

4) Time for the Bob Sanders infatuation to end. Dude just can't stay healthy. Hopefully I'll be able to steal him drafts next year, but I won't count on him as a starter.

more to come...

 

[dirtyhalos]

michael lewis and adam archuleta killed my once stellar safety group......

 

[stevegamer]

DBs are plentiful. You've got about 20 who separate themselves with consistent high scoring, but then there's 60 more who seem to have similar type potential. This means there is almost always decent scoring DBs available on the waiver wire. What I learned is to not use up very many roster spots because my 6 & 7 DBs are the same as the top 5 FA DBs.

This is an excellent point - my young & studly secondary took a bunch of hits this season from injury, demotion, and plain slippage of play. So I ended up carrying a guy like Boulware all year, even though he got demoted because I didn't want to lose him, and he was part of my draft success that got me into contention with a bad team I took over. Unfortunately, I probably got too attached to my DB's since I turned them over completely and found good players everywhere I looked - basically ending up with 5 guys in the top 15-20 going into the season on my roster, plus rookies in Whitner & Harper.

 

[Warpig]

I whiffed completely when I drafted Patrick Kerney AND Bryce Fisher. Both of those guys were bums. I got sick of seeing Fisher never being around the football (how did that guy get 9 sacks last year?) and Patrick repeatedly tearing his pec muscle or whatever it was.

I scored picking up Ken Hamlin. He's been a staple in my lineup all season. I think everyone was afraid he wouldn't be able to make a full come back this year. But he proved them all wrong! Excellent value!

DT's are a dime a dozen.

Most 3-4 LB's aren't very good point producers. Sure, they're mediocre, but far from stud material.

How did Bart Scott NOT make it to the pro bowl?!?!?

 

[stevegamer]

Elite players are nice, but injury prone elite players at the same spot can be problematic.

Having Bert Berry & John Abraham on the same roster was too devastating when Osi went down as well.

I'm not sure what to do there, since anyone can get injured, but once you have players with a track record of getting hurt, they become hard to trade, and you won't get value.

I never thoguht I'd see the day where I had rostering decisions on how many playrs to keep at each spot on a 45 man roster.

 

[PatsWillWin]

This was my first season doing IDP's. I learned a great deal, and about 90% of it came from this site and this forum. So thanks a lot.

One thing I learned maybe partly due to enterting the IDP field is that it is very common for some managers to over-value offensive players compared to IDP's, even in a favorable scoring format. I'm in one dynasty league that really rewards the "big play". Around Week 4 or 5, I was noticing that the scoring for IDP's was much more significant than I thought, and despite a strong offensive team, I was at a disadvantage because I had overlooked the DL position too much. A guy in my league updates his trade block basicallying saying "I need a RB."

I ended up trading him Ron Dayne + 2nd for Jared Allen + 1st. Allen was a monster the rest of the season, and Dayne did nothing until the past couple of weeks.

I probably fleeced the guy anyway, but I think it shows that there was a clear emphasis on getting a "starting RB", and if he had to give up a DL, then that's definitely worth it.

 

[RUN HARD]

#1 Should have came here Prior To Draft

#2 Should have came here after Draft

#3 Should have came here during season

#4 Should not have CUT Hamlin

#5 Picking 1st IDP in RD #26 in Year 1 Draft...not good.

 

[lions327]

Good things I did that I learned from past years...depending on roster size, don't be too fast to give up on players coming off injuries and/or underachieving, such as Sean Jones and Ken Hamlin, to name a couple.

An IDP stud isn't necessarily a great player (Demorrio Williams). But if thses kind of players get a chance to start, they will produce points. But hanging onto them after they are benched is pointless to me.

My biggest weakness is picking starting LB's. I wasn't as concerned with matchups as I should have been...namely playing certain LB's against teams that never run.

And I had a few players to watch for and let one completely slip my mind, regarding grabbing them before roster moves ended. Stephen Cooper was one I can't believe I forgot about.

You can rebuild IDP's pretty fast compared to offensive players.

And no matter how much you know, you can always learn more.

 

[Pick]

You can pick up decent scorers on the WW.

 

[ffchamp1]

You can pick up decent scorers on the WW.

This is an excellant point.For 13 yrs I have lived by the "turn your roster by 1/3rd" every year and it has paid off in spades. I beieve that the 2nd tier positions in our game are the target areas for this theory.A guy like Cedric Griffin who did not start until later ended up being a great play because of the system, playing opposite Winfield and being a rookie.I believe that offensive backups can be picked up via the WW during the year and I believe that S's, CB's and DL's SHOULD be picked up during the year. Due to the high injury rate, inconsistancy year in and year out, and the wealth of quality players it is so important to stay on top of the WW.A couple of things I learned or had reiterated3-4 ILB's can kill you if there is a position changeOLB's will always vary depending on the scoring systemIt is fine to have a S and LB from the same team as long as that DEF is on the field alot (Bethea/Brackett)Rookies hit a wall, some bounce back, some for the year (D Johnson in 05, D Jackson in 06)It is all about scoring systems. If you have a stud player, it takes alot to overcome an unfriendly scoring system.Do not give up on a young player. Thomas Davis may have been left for dead by many but he had a very good year and looks to be a solid fixture for years as the SLB in CARTom

 

[Rozelle]

I missed on Thomas Howard ... Big Time.

What I learned ...

Jean has been a great asset to FBG's and the IDP'ers of the world.

This is still the best place to come for IDP info.

Thanks to all who contribute!

 

[houndirish]

Echoing previous sentiments on talent in regard to scheme. I too got stung by Vilma's move this offseason. I had several quality offers for him last offseason but wouldn't consider parting with him since I loed the thought of a stud LB to anchor my D. Now I don't disagree with the anchor part but every D player, no matter their talent level, is susceptible to a major downfall, and I suppose spike too, in production, based on scheme changes. When I think of the A-list offensive players I could've gotten had I been willing to part with Vilma I have to fight back tears.

I also learned to absolutely stick to your value board on redraft draft day. This is the first year I did that. I overcame the tempation to simply add RB 2 in round 2 just because I knew I needed to have that extra firepower. Instead I ended up superdeep at WR with Steve Smith, Donald Driver, Lee Evans and Javon Walker taken in the first 8 rounds (IDP league). I added value plays in Chris Henry and Deion Branch late and cruised to my first title in that league in year #8 of competition.

My belief in Bloom's extensive research was reaffirmed. Jene became an excellent weekly IDP advisor.

Lastly I learned that if you put in a ton of your own research you should at least trust the conclusions you come to. I was superhigh on Maurice Jones Drew in my rookie draft. Had him the #7 rated prospect overall. Was terrified he wouldn't fall to me in round 2 and was prepared to make aggressive offers to get him. Nobody bit on my deals but I was fortunate to have him fall to me at pick 2.5. I stopped counting how many times I secondguessed my inflated opinion of the guy compared to the TV talking heads. But every time I started to doubt myself I'd rewatch his highlight reels from the UCLA-Cal game or the Oregon State game and I'd reaffirm my belief. I guess my point in this ramble is if you're going to pour time and energy into your own research, don't be afraid to disagree with what the "experts" on TV spew. If you're simply going to follow their advice, there's no need to spend the additional time. Sure you'll still be wrong at times (I was very down on Norwood) but it's not like the talking heads are batting 1.000!

 

[stevegamer]

Good point about drafting "your guys" - I'd much rather fail with my guys than fail with someone else's guys.

I've also learned I'd like to try a dynasty league from scratch - it's been fun fixing the team I inherited, but I like to think I could do a very good job of not having such problems in the first place.

 

[Pick]

I've also learned I'd like to try a dynasty league from scratch - it's been fun fixing the team I inherited, but I like to think I could do a very good job of not having such problems in the first place.

I hear ye. I love my dynasty league but I inherited a joke of a squad and it'd be nice to see what I could do from scratch.

 

[Pick]

You can pick up decent scorers on the WW.

This is an excellant point.For 13 yrs I have lived by the "turn your roster by 1/3rd" every year and it has paid off in spades. I beieve that the 2nd tier positions in our game are the target areas for this theory.A guy like Cedric Griffin who did not start until later ended up being a great play because of the system, playing opposite Winfield and being a rookie.I believe that offensive backups can be picked up via the WW during the year and I believe that S's, CB's and DL's SHOULD be picked up during the year. Due to the high injury rate, inconsistancy year in and year out, and the wealth of quality players it is so important to stay on top of the WW.

I should add that I play in a 16-team dynasty league with 53-man rosters and a 5-man d-squad. So you'd think the WW would be thin but that's far from true. I can only imagine what's available in smaller leagues.

Do not give up on a young player.

I hear that. I've been impatient in the past but have learned bit by bit to give the young IDPs time (similar to how you have to let WRs develop).

 

[WhoDat]

Good point about drafting "your guys" - I'd much rather fail with my guys than fail with someone else's guys.

I've also learned I'd like to try a dynasty league from scratch - it's been fun fixing the team I inherited, but I like to think I could do a very good job of not having such problems in the first place.

I strongly suggest you look into joining any of the Zealot leagues that should form this spring. Random thoughts...things I tried...things I learned

If you are new to IDP play, then check in here through the offseason. The regulars have been nails with their feelings on incoming defensive rookies especially linebackers. Seriously, pay close attention...very close attention...

It is handy to have a top tier CB on your team. For example, a guy like Pac Man Jones. I hate the price tag in an initial draft but a top CB that doubles has a return man is well worth it. Yes, you can find good DB talent on the WW but a guy like McGee, Hall, Bailey or Jones can really make a difference.

Casual IDP owners still get caught up on names.

Conversely, you can build a great team in an initial draft with defensive players that only hardcore FF, IDP players could name.

It is easier to identify blue chip defensive talent; make wise draft selections and get a decent ROI than doing the same with offensive players. I opted to stay away from lottery ticket WR and RB in my rookie drafts this year and only take high-end defensive talent. It works. (For example, it was very possible that an owner could have used rookie picks in Rounds 2-4 to get Sims, Ryans, Hali and Page.) You can quickly build depth. You can cover weekly scoring gaps on offense with a great all around defense especially at LB. You can eventually trade defense for offense or defense for draft picks. However, I discovered it takes patience and a willingness to stick with a plan built around 2-3 rookie drafts.

Your best players should play on Sundays. I think I lost 4 games by a combined 20 points in one league this year. It was directly related to some really bad decisions I made at DE and DB over the middle part of the season. I knew better...I really knew better...but I failed to control the urge. Thus, please learn from my mistake.

Play. Your. Best. Players. Always.

 

[Smizzy]

1. unless you can get a DB who picks the ball off alot and likes to tackle Id rather draft a Safety. They amass more tackles and score more points.

2. Stats are a funny number to base DL IDP's on. I like Tackles. The DE who has 7 tackles out scores the guy with 2 sacks 7 - 6.

3. Tackles = Rushing Yards. I look at tackles like rushing yards. My IDP doesn't have to score a TD(Sack ,INT) as long as he racks up the yards(tackles). Guys with high tackle totals are who I target.

 

[Rozelle]

Echoing previous sentiments on talent in regard to scheme. I too got stung by Vilma's move this offseason. I had several quality offers for him last offseason but wouldn't consider parting with him since I loed the thought of a stud LB to anchor my D. Now I don't disagree with the anchor part but every D player, no matter their talent level, is susceptible to a major downfall, and I suppose spike too, in production, based on scheme changes. When I think of the A-list offensive players I could've gotten had I been willing to part with Vilma I have to fight back tears.

I also learned to absolutely stick to your value board on redraft draft day. This is the first year I did that. I overcame the tempation to simply add RB 2 in round 2 just because I knew I needed to have that extra firepower. Instead I ended up superdeep at WR with Steve Smith, Donald Driver, Lee Evans and Javon Walker taken in the first 8 rounds (IDP league). I added value plays in Chris Henry and Deion Branch late and cruised to my first title in that league in year #8 of competition.

My belief in Bloom's extensive research was reaffirmed. Jene became an excellent weekly IDP advisor.

Lastly I learned that if you put in a ton of your own research you should at least trust the conclusions you come to. I guess my point in this ramble is if you're going to pour time and energy into your own research, don't be afraid to disagree with what the "experts" on TV spew. If you're simply going to follow their advice, there's no need to spend the additional time. Sure you'll still be wrong at times (I was very down on Norwood) but it's not like the talking heads are batting 1.000!

Absolutley! Excellant advise! If I'm high on someone, I dont waiver. The mistake I make, is maybe drafting them higher than I should. Sure you miss, but like houndirish said, nobody bats 1.000.

 

[stevegamer]

Good point about drafting "your guys" - I'd much rather fail with my guys than fail with someone else's guys.

I've also learned I'd like to try a dynasty league from scratch - it's been fun fixing the team I inherited, but I like to think I could do a very good job of not having such problems in the first place.

I strongly suggest you look into joining any of the Zealot leagues that should form this spring. Random thoughts...things I tried...things I learned

If you are new to IDP play, then check in here through the offseason. The regulars have been nails with their feelings on incoming defensive rookies especially linebackers. Seriously, pay close attention...very close attention...

It is handy to have a top tier CB on your team. For example, a guy like Pac Man Jones. I hate the price tag in an initial draft but a top CB that doubles has a return man is well worth it. Yes, you can find good DB talent on the WW but a guy like McGee, Hall, Bailey or Jones can really make a difference.

Casual IDP owners still get caught up on names.

Conversely, you can build a great team in an initial draft with defensive players that only hardcore FF, IDP players could name.

It is easier to identify blue chip defensive talent; make wise draft selections and get a decent ROI than doing the same with offensive players. I opted to stay away from lottery ticket WR and RB in my rookie drafts this year and only take high-end defensive talent. It works. (For example, it was very possible that an owner could have used rookie picks in Rounds 2-4 to get Sims, Ryans, Hali and Page.) You can quickly build depth. You can cover weekly scoring gaps on offense with a great all around defense especially at LB. You can eventually trade defense for offense or defense for draft picks. However, I discovered it takes patience and a willingness to stick with a plan built around 2-3 rookie drafts.

Your best players should play on Sundays. I think I lost 4 games by a combined 20 points in one league this year. It was directly related to some really bad decisions I made at DE and DB over the middle part of the season. I knew better...I really knew better...but I failed to control the urge. Thus, please learn from my mistake.

Play. Your. Best. Players. Always.

Thanks, I might check out Zealots - I've got years in a IDP dynasty league, so I'm pretty hardcore by now.I actually find it harder to identify blue chip defensive talent, but I can identify red chip (would that be the level below blue?) talent easily & well. Generally I draft talented players on O, they udnerperform due to being hurt or playing for the Lions or both, and then I am in a quandary. My targetted IDP guys usually pan out well at DB & LB, especially for the value if I get them int he draft. I've only drafted one DL in 4 years, and he's failed, and I haven't had need there until injuries this year, so I've been mostly ignoring it.

My biggest problem is reading injuries - IDP stud or near stud who is questionable or off injury report due to practicing twice. Berry/Umeniyora/Abraham/Peterson/Quarles/Wilson have really confounded me this season.

Guy I most missed on was Jermaine Phillips - cut him after his lull weeks 5-6, should've dropped Boulware.

 

[Beaumont]

Work the waiver wire for CBs after the season begins and give them a one year deal ...

Daven Holly. Asante Samuel. Jason Webster. Walt Harris. Anthony Henry. Fakhir Brown. They all had weekly averages in the top 40. Its like free gold sitting in the trash ...

 

[msommer]

I missed badly on Crowder when I traded him for a RB that did squat. I could have really used him when Spikes underwhelmed and Thurman got suspended for the year.

My story is somewhat the opposite of yours and has a happier ending. Though I have been playing this game for something like 25 yrs, I still tend to "fall in love" with certain rookies right after the NFL rookie draft. This year was no different. The player was LB Chad Greenway.

Long story short was I missed out on drafting him and tried to trade MY 2nd round rookie pick, Maurice Jones-Drew, in every conceivable trade which would give me the players needed to get me Greenway, but in the end - the team who owned him would not budge.

Well, Greenway gets a season ending injury and Jones-Drew can be mentioned in the same breath with "rookie of the year"

I guess the moral of the story is TRY to wait until you see where these rookies fit in before making quick decisions. I might have been kicking myself all season long.

It's not all bad, the Rb will likely change teams and should compete for a starting job, making him an asset again. Also I got to pick up Leroy Hill when his owned somehow soued on him early in the season, and I hit big time on Wimbley. I took a shot at Keiaho, Keyaron Fox and Reggie Torbor for potential value next year (Keiaho probably only in 2008, and Torbor probably not at all)

 

[msommer]

Work the waiver wire for CBs after the season begins and give them a one year deal ...Daven Holly. Asante Samuel. Jason Webster. Walt Harris. Anthony Henry. Fakhir Brown. They all had weekly averages in the top 40. Its like free gold sitting in the trash ...

The days I pay top dollar at DB are over I think. Although Chris Hope sure did help my team (Marlon McCree however did not...)

 

[Hell Diablo]

I enjoy IDP and have had a lot of success in redrafts.

Here's what I do...

1) Even with IDP you still have offensive players to get. Make sure you have points at every starting position. Do not reach for your IDP sleeper when there are only 1 or 2 TEs that are threats to score every week available. Most new IDPers already know how to draft a good offensive team and that's so important as well. It's about balance. I can't stress enough how many times my offense sucked bad but was bailed out by my defense going off. It's so true that defense wins championships, especially in IDP.

2) This has been beaten to death, but take the guys no one knows about that you learned about on here, for instance Kerry Rhodes last year, and (ugg, I can't remember his name) the young safety from the 49ers who finished very strong this year. His weekly production is excellent since he started, but he will be in the middle of the pack in scoring because he only became the starter recently. You can get these guys late and it will produce big time.

3) Stay on top of things through this forum. If your LB is underachieving or gets hurt, this is the best place to find out who is sitting on the waiver wire that will be top 10 by the end of the year.

4) Basically, come here every day or two and see what's being said about players and make the moves.

I hope this helps and wasn't too wordy.

Excellent thread by the way.

 

[Rovers]

I learned to follow coaching (even DC's, OC's and asst's) and possible D scheme changes very closely.

For instance, I had picked up Furrey in 2005, after he was converted from WR to S by martz in his last year in St Louis. He went through our FA bidding period without any takers, especially because he was cut by the new StL coaching staff. But, I held onto him.... and before I had to assign a contract, Matrz picked him up for Detroit to be a WR. Bingo! I gave him a 3 year contract, and he was a top 20 WR.

Whenever a coach goes out and gets a player who he had earlier, there is a super sleeper for you.

As far as my hits with Rhodes and Vilma this year, I have the luxury of going to a lot of Jets training camps. I was also able to see a fall off for Coleman.... new coaches... new schemes. I was however very off in my projections for Justin Miller. Mangini's coverage schemes are complicated, and Miller just doesn't seem smart enough to grasp it well enough.

I learned you can't have enough good LB's. But.... they are even more susceptable to a down turn from scheme changes, while there are DB's who aren't.... like Champ Bailey. This year I locked up a solid corp of DB's who looked safe.... Lito Sheppard, Bailey, Rhodes, S Spencer, Carlos Rodgers. All with multi year contracts. I realise most people feel DB's can always be had, but with this group, (we use fake league $ to blind bid on FA's) I didn't have to spend any $ looking for DB's.... instead I kept spending my league FA $ looking for LB's and DL's. By saving league $, I was also able to trade for an LB or two using some of that extra cash.

K Mitchell was probably my biggest miss. I thought Edwards would use the same 4-3 that funnelled tackles to Vilma in KC as well..... but he was a huge dissappointment. Gaither may have been my best FA aquisition... time will tell.

In 16 team leagues, I've found it better to lock up my DB's and turn over rocks looking for up and coming LB's and DL's instead. I've also found owners who are willing to trade for stud DB's that may have good depth at the other D positions. Last year I moved both M Williams and A Wilson for great values in return.

I hope I learned to stop over valuing youth in dynasty leagues!