GoBears84
Footballguy
This is part 6 in an effort to analyze the predictions from 2006 Projections Dominator as compared to the year’s final results. So far we’ve looked at kickers, QB's, RB's, WR’s and TE’s. I plan on putting the Top 200 together when done to see how it all plays out.
I have the 2006 actual data from this years PD and I'm using standard FBG scoring:
1 Pt per Sack
2 Pts per Safety
2 Pts per Interception
2 Pts per Fumble Recovery
6 Pts per Touchdowns
5,4,3,2,1,0 for allowing 0,5,10,15,20,25 points.
I am using the 2006 PD projections (projforxx.php where xx is the initials of the expert) dated 9/4/2006. Total Team Defense TD’s aren’t in the PD so I added them in manually.
As I’ve noted in all previous accounts, the analysis method below is that recommended to me by the statistician at my company and may not be the same approach you might want to take. I’m happy to share the data with anybody else who would like to see it. Just PM me.
I calculated the Points Per Game (PG) for 2006 and for Dodds and Smith by inputting the data into the VBD application and calculating the corresponding points and dividing by 16. From there I subtracted the predictions from the actuals to get a residual (a measure of how far off the prediction was) which I then squared.
Because Defenses are limited on the roster, I limited my analysis to the top 24, the top 12, and 12-24.
The means of the Points per Game residual from the predictions were:
…………..…………Top 24………Top 12………...13 to 24
Dodds …………....1.97…………..2.67…………..0.76
Smith ……….…....2.01…………..2.45…………..1.44
The variances were:
…………..…………Top 24………Top 12………...13 to 24
Dodds …………....2.75…………..3.12…………..0.80
Smith ………….....2.15…………..2.35…………..1.54
The data analysis comparing the means and the variances suggests that the experts are statistically different. Although the mean residuals of the top 24 appear to be the same, the differences between the predictions of the top 12 and 13-24 are significant. Dodds and Smith have similar accuracy on the Top 12, Smith has a better variance; but for 13-24, Dodds had statistically better predictions, by over 0.5 point per team per game.
Looking at the residuals, from 13-24 Smith was off considerably on the Raiders, Jaguars and the Panthers.
Another interesting trend is that the predictions were off the most for the top 6 scoring teams, suggesting that Dodds and Smith seriously under predicted the top Defenses.
I hope to put all of the offensive predictions (QB, RB, WR, TE) together tomorrow to look at them as one group.
Joel
I have the 2006 actual data from this years PD and I'm using standard FBG scoring:
1 Pt per Sack
2 Pts per Safety
2 Pts per Interception
2 Pts per Fumble Recovery
6 Pts per Touchdowns
5,4,3,2,1,0 for allowing 0,5,10,15,20,25 points.
I am using the 2006 PD projections (projforxx.php where xx is the initials of the expert) dated 9/4/2006. Total Team Defense TD’s aren’t in the PD so I added them in manually.
As I’ve noted in all previous accounts, the analysis method below is that recommended to me by the statistician at my company and may not be the same approach you might want to take. I’m happy to share the data with anybody else who would like to see it. Just PM me.
I calculated the Points Per Game (PG) for 2006 and for Dodds and Smith by inputting the data into the VBD application and calculating the corresponding points and dividing by 16. From there I subtracted the predictions from the actuals to get a residual (a measure of how far off the prediction was) which I then squared.
Because Defenses are limited on the roster, I limited my analysis to the top 24, the top 12, and 12-24.
The means of the Points per Game residual from the predictions were:
…………..…………Top 24………Top 12………...13 to 24
Dodds …………....1.97…………..2.67…………..0.76
Smith ……….…....2.01…………..2.45…………..1.44
The variances were:
…………..…………Top 24………Top 12………...13 to 24
Dodds …………....2.75…………..3.12…………..0.80
Smith ………….....2.15…………..2.35…………..1.54
The data analysis comparing the means and the variances suggests that the experts are statistically different. Although the mean residuals of the top 24 appear to be the same, the differences between the predictions of the top 12 and 13-24 are significant. Dodds and Smith have similar accuracy on the Top 12, Smith has a better variance; but for 13-24, Dodds had statistically better predictions, by over 0.5 point per team per game.
Looking at the residuals, from 13-24 Smith was off considerably on the Raiders, Jaguars and the Panthers.
Another interesting trend is that the predictions were off the most for the top 6 scoring teams, suggesting that Dodds and Smith seriously under predicted the top Defenses.
I hope to put all of the offensive predictions (QB, RB, WR, TE) together tomorrow to look at them as one group.
Joel
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