Scoresman
Footballguy
This is true. For some reason this morning I thought 31=easy but no, it’s hard. I blame it on the notovirus I got this weekend.
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Things I'm Noticing while doing Projections for each Team/Player (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Scoresman
- Start date
This is true. For some reason this morning I thought 31=easy but no, it’s hard. I blame it on the notovirus I got this weekend.
massraider
Footballguy
The variable outcomes for almost every player in this offense are hilarious.
Las Vegas isn't everything. But it's significant. Much of it depends on how much value one puts on the coordinators. I put quite a bit.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
I always project points per game.
Scoresman
Footballguy
Yeah from a team perspective, I look at Vegas futures and other key changes like OL changes, major defensive changes, and coaching changes. Coaching changes tend to be potentially significant.
For Detroit, the largest discrepancy was the Vegas win total of 10.5 vs 15 last year. To me that screams playing from behind more often and a higher passing ratio. The OC change matters too but they essentially hired from within, so I’m not weighing it too much.
Scoresman
Footballguy
Yeah, I look at this and see how what I’m projecting compares to previous years on a per game basis.
Grid71
Footballguy
Detroit outdoor games article
I didn’t fact check it, but think Detroit only played 1 cold weather game in each of the last 2 seasons. Looks like a similar pattern in 2025. Last 7 games are all dome stadiums except week 18 in Chicago.
Conditions couldn’t be much better for Goff and company.
Ben Johnson going to Chicago could be significant. I think it’ll help Chicago more than hurt Detroit.
I didn’t fact check it, but think Detroit only played 1 cold weather game in each of the last 2 seasons. Looks like a similar pattern in 2025. Last 7 games are all dome stadiums except week 18 in Chicago.
Conditions couldn’t be much better for Goff and company.
Ben Johnson going to Chicago could be significant. I think it’ll help Chicago more than hurt Detroit.
Scoresman
Footballguy
Green Bay
The Packers had one of the biggest Pass:Run ratio swings from 2023 to 2024. 57/45 in 2023 to 48/52 in 2024. Most of this can be attributed to signing Josh Jacobs. All signs point to them using Jacobs the same so I'm not projecting anything too different from last year.
Their OL lost some pieces but should still be solid.
While Jordan Love dropped back to pass much less, he was more efficient. The question is whether this can be maintained. I assume part of this efficiency is due to defenses having to account for Jacobs. Since this hasn't changed, I'm projecting similar to last year.
The Packers had one of the biggest Pass:Run ratio swings from 2023 to 2024. 57/45 in 2023 to 48/52 in 2024. Most of this can be attributed to signing Josh Jacobs. All signs point to them using Jacobs the same so I'm not projecting anything too different from last year.
Their OL lost some pieces but should still be solid.
While Jordan Love dropped back to pass much less, he was more efficient. The question is whether this can be maintained. I assume part of this efficiency is due to defenses having to account for Jacobs. Since this hasn't changed, I'm projecting similar to last year.
Scoresman
Footballguy
Houston
Houston disappointed in 2024 and I'm not convinced they are much better this year. Their OL was amongst the worst in the league, and they did little to address this. They did, however, hire a new OL coach, so sometimes that can make a difference. While being a terrible OL overall, the running game averaged 4.4 YPC last year after 3.7 both years before. That's a decent bump.
The Texans hired a TE coach as their new OC. Not sure the effect of this, but I am giving Dalton Schultz a bit of a bump.
CJ Stroud was a much better QB when Collins was in the lineup last year. I'll be optimistic and assume he plays more games, improving Stroud's efficiency accordingly. I am not projecting a return to his 2023 numbers though.
Joe Mixon is Joe Mixon. I could probably just copy his statline from the last 2 years for his 2025 projection. And that's pretty much what I did. I dont see him doing much better than 4-4.2 YPC behind that line. Random note, Houston's catch rates for their RBs was terribly low last year. RBs are usually in the 75-85% catch rate, but last year HOU RBs had a 67% catch rate. Are they scheming RBs running WR routes or something? Or just Stroud being pressured constantly?
Houston disappointed in 2024 and I'm not convinced they are much better this year. Their OL was amongst the worst in the league, and they did little to address this. They did, however, hire a new OL coach, so sometimes that can make a difference. While being a terrible OL overall, the running game averaged 4.4 YPC last year after 3.7 both years before. That's a decent bump.
The Texans hired a TE coach as their new OC. Not sure the effect of this, but I am giving Dalton Schultz a bit of a bump.
CJ Stroud was a much better QB when Collins was in the lineup last year. I'll be optimistic and assume he plays more games, improving Stroud's efficiency accordingly. I am not projecting a return to his 2023 numbers though.
Joe Mixon is Joe Mixon. I could probably just copy his statline from the last 2 years for his 2025 projection. And that's pretty much what I did. I dont see him doing much better than 4-4.2 YPC behind that line. Random note, Houston's catch rates for their RBs was terribly low last year. RBs are usually in the 75-85% catch rate, but last year HOU RBs had a 67% catch rate. Are they scheming RBs running WR routes or something? Or just Stroud being pressured constantly?
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I think Carolina wants to be heavy in the run game and short passing game. That is what the OL is built for and Dowdle supports it.
Jalen Coker was a guy who really looked the part last year so might be a popular sleeper. Some folks liked him more than Legette on the field. Where do you have him stacked in targets?
Scoresman
Footballguy
Indianapolis
I'm pretty down on the Colts this year. I went in expecting to project something similar to last year for their players, but that did not play out. The main reason are the team's splits when Richardson was QB vs not.
To no surprise, when Richardson was QB, the entire team had worse stats than when he was. Jonathan Taylor in particular. The problem is, they don't have Joe Flacco anymore to replace Richardson, they have Daniel Jones who is much more similar to Richardson. He's a better passer than Richardson, but I dont think he's as good as Flacco. So my logic is to lean more towards the splits including Richardson than without. This mean an overall slight dip for all Colts players.
I'm pretty down on the Colts this year. I went in expecting to project something similar to last year for their players, but that did not play out. The main reason are the team's splits when Richardson was QB vs not.
To no surprise, when Richardson was QB, the entire team had worse stats than when he was. Jonathan Taylor in particular. The problem is, they don't have Joe Flacco anymore to replace Richardson, they have Daniel Jones who is much more similar to Richardson. He's a better passer than Richardson, but I dont think he's as good as Flacco. So my logic is to lean more towards the splits including Richardson than without. This mean an overall slight dip for all Colts players.
Scoresman
Footballguy
He shows up as 4th on the depth chart everywhere I look. I have him at about a 10% target share vs 14 for Legette.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Vegas didn't actually have them at 15 wins last year did they? What was the preseason line? I don't know but 15 seems insane for Vegas.
I think Vegas puts ton of weight on the change in OC as well. And generally do from case to case. But the bigger point here is that 15 games is stupid ridiculously high. 10.5 is also a big number. When was the last time Vegas had someone at +14 wins, or +13 prior to the season expanding a few years back?
I think the significant drop from the prior *result* of 15 wins and the current *projection* of 10.5 is an inflated perception. It's probably fair to say Vegas anticipates a drop but how big is it actually compared to last year's preseason talk?
***decides to look it up and comes up with the following line for Vegas' win total projection for 2024 Detroit***
It's 10.5 folks. Do with that what you will.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Vegas projections for Detroit wins:
2024: 10.5
2025: 10.5
2024: 10.5
2025: 10.5
Scoresman
Footballguy
I compared to actual 2024 wins to see what the anticipated dropoff is. I agree that 10.5 is low. I have them at about 12. 15 is hard to repeat.
I think what he's saying is Las Vegas didn't have them projected for 15 wins in 2024.
This was the sentence that had us confused.
I think what you meant is "Vegas has them winning 10.5 games in 2025 while they won 15 last year"
Scoresman
Footballguy
Yeah I could have worded that better for sure. I do think it's more valuable to look at actual wins last year vs projected this year to see the dropoff Vegas is predicting. I dont see much value in last year's vegas prediction. Vegas is never going to predict 15 wins.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Well, it's comparing apples to oranges. You can't compare the result from last year to a prediction this year (or last) as if it's the same scale. They *are* relatable but it isn't the same equation. I agree with your assessment that 12 is probably more like where it ought to be for 2025, and so then we could still say that Vegas thinks they will regress if 12 is the baseline. But starting from a baseline of 15 is something that Vegas is not doing and neither should we. Because it is apples and oranges. You can't say Vegas will never use 15 (which I stated in my first sentence) and then use that same number as a reference. I'm sorry that but that isn't good process.
And it isn't because of how you worded it. I wasn't confused. You meant it like that. And it is ok to compare apples to oranges but we have to do it right. 12 really should be closer to a baseline here because indeed 15 is insane.
Yes. but I get what he's saying and I think the comparison had value.
They won 15 games last year. Las Vegas says they'll win 10.5 this year. Yes, it's apples and oranges but that's useful information in my opinion.
Scoresman
Footballguy
Except I think the comparison of the two is more valuable than using last year’s Vegas line even though it’s technically apples and oranges. I’m not using it to measure Vegas’ accuracy. I’m just trying to get the most relevant data to project an nfl team.
What if you were trying to project a quarterback? What is more useful, last year’s Vegas player prop, or last year’s actual result? I think the actual result is more useful.
When I saw the Vegas line of 10.5 I thought it was low, but the takeaway is that they expect regression from last year. That’s why I look at that data point.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
What are you going to use the Win Loss lines for in regards to individual player projections?
Losing teams throw the ball more because they are losing.
As far as the Vegas line for number of games each team will win, I think there may be a misunderstanding here.
Setting the line at 10.5 is not Vegas expecting regression from a team that won 15 games the previous season. Its saying who knows what is going to happen? Its been a winning team so the line doesn't get set at average 8.5 games but it also is not saying the team will regress from how good they were the previous season. Its saying they cant make any money unless they get action on both sides. So they want the line to be low enough to attract action from the Bulls. If they set the line too high and say the QB gets injured or any other acts of god occur and they are losing their shirts.
Losing teams throw the ball more because they are losing.
As far as the Vegas line for number of games each team will win, I think there may be a misunderstanding here.
Setting the line at 10.5 is not Vegas expecting regression from a team that won 15 games the previous season. Its saying who knows what is going to happen? Its been a winning team so the line doesn't get set at average 8.5 games but it also is not saying the team will regress from how good they were the previous season. Its saying they cant make any money unless they get action on both sides. So they want the line to be low enough to attract action from the Bulls. If they set the line too high and say the QB gets injured or any other acts of god occur and they are losing their shirts.
Scoresman
Footballguy
I use the Vegas lines as one of many sanity checks of my team totals. So when I see a team that is likely to lose more games, I should expect them to pass more than last year and vice versa.
Scoresman
Footballguy
Jacksonville
The Jaguars had a down year last year, but made one of the better coaching changes of the offseason and a number of other improvements that have me thinking a return to fighting for a playoff spot might even be in the cards.
Liam Coen's Buccaneer's offense was one of the highest in the league in RB volume, particularly in the passing game. Figuring who is going to benefit from this is a challenge, however. It seems to be some sort of three way committee and now there are trade rumors surrounding Etienne. I'm confident in my total team RB projection of 435 carries, 1,956 yards, 13 TDs. As training camp proceeds, I'll tweak individual ratios. Right now Etienne is slightly leading over Tank in carries.
They made clear improvements on the offensive line, which I think will be huge. They won 4 games last year. Vegas had them at 7.5 this year.
Liam Coen has been vocal about BTJ being the focus of the passing game and I am projecting accordingly with a 24.5% target share.
The Jaguars had a down year last year, but made one of the better coaching changes of the offseason and a number of other improvements that have me thinking a return to fighting for a playoff spot might even be in the cards.
Liam Coen's Buccaneer's offense was one of the highest in the league in RB volume, particularly in the passing game. Figuring who is going to benefit from this is a challenge, however. It seems to be some sort of three way committee and now there are trade rumors surrounding Etienne. I'm confident in my total team RB projection of 435 carries, 1,956 yards, 13 TDs. As training camp proceeds, I'll tweak individual ratios. Right now Etienne is slightly leading over Tank in carries.
They made clear improvements on the offensive line, which I think will be huge. They won 4 games last year. Vegas had them at 7.5 this year.
Liam Coen has been vocal about BTJ being the focus of the passing game and I am projecting accordingly with a 24.5% target share.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
I had a very tough time with the Bear’s projections. They used serious draft capital bringing in two receivers in CL and Burden. How do they impact target rates? Meanwhile, I cannot help remembering that swift was traded when Ben Johnson was the OC. Does that suggest how BJ views Swift? If so, does that mean that Roschon be the beneficiary, or will they bring in someone (Dobbins, Chubb)?
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
The tough part of projecting the Jags is what impact will oline have on Cohen’s offensive approach. I would like to know why you believe they made improvements in the oline. I have checked various sites oline grades and they universally have the Bucs oline graded in the top 10 and the Jags in the bottom 5 (FBG have the Bucs at 6 and the Jags at 31) If these ranks are accurate how does that change Cohen’s approach.
Scoresman
Footballguy
Kansas City
Lots of interesting tidbits I found when researching the Chiefs. Last year, they had the lowest pass rate of the Mahomes era, by a lot. They are usually passing at a 20-61% rate, last year this dipped to 58%. This is crazy because they did not run the ball well at all, averaging only 4 YPC. Maybe its because they won 15 games, or because of Kelce's decline. Not sure I see a repeat of this because of the next stat.
Pro Football Reference has an expected W/L stat that takes the points for/against and projects what a team would usually end up with in terms of wins and losses. Last year's Chiefs team had the highest discrepancy in expected vs actual wins all time. They were expected to win 59.7% of their games, but won 88%. The Chiefs definitely have knack for finding a way to win, and they still made the Superbowl after having an expected win number of around 10. But that is a big discrepancy that screams for some regression.
The O line has had some moving parts. They were slightly better than average last year and they seemed to address issues in the draft, but time will tell if they can get back to form here.
Bottom line. I'm bumping their pass rate up a bit and overall passing stats. The return of Rice will help the passing game and if W/L regression hits, they may need to pass more. Rushing wise, I'm assuming last year's increase was a bit of a blip and partially due to their outlier win total. But it's hard to be confident about Chief's projections outside of Mahomes' consistency. It's easy to foresee regression, but time and time again they prove doubters wrong.
EDIT: I forgot about Worthy's rushing. Projecting similar to last year I actually come closer to matching last year's low pass rate. Not sure how I feel about this, but ok for now.
Lots of interesting tidbits I found when researching the Chiefs. Last year, they had the lowest pass rate of the Mahomes era, by a lot. They are usually passing at a 20-61% rate, last year this dipped to 58%. This is crazy because they did not run the ball well at all, averaging only 4 YPC. Maybe its because they won 15 games, or because of Kelce's decline. Not sure I see a repeat of this because of the next stat.
Pro Football Reference has an expected W/L stat that takes the points for/against and projects what a team would usually end up with in terms of wins and losses. Last year's Chiefs team had the highest discrepancy in expected vs actual wins all time. They were expected to win 59.7% of their games, but won 88%. The Chiefs definitely have knack for finding a way to win, and they still made the Superbowl after having an expected win number of around 10. But that is a big discrepancy that screams for some regression.
The O line has had some moving parts. They were slightly better than average last year and they seemed to address issues in the draft, but time will tell if they can get back to form here.
Bottom line. I'm bumping their pass rate up a bit and overall passing stats. The return of Rice will help the passing game and if W/L regression hits, they may need to pass more. Rushing wise, I'm assuming last year's increase was a bit of a blip and partially due to their outlier win total. But it's hard to be confident about Chief's projections outside of Mahomes' consistency. It's easy to foresee regression, but time and time again they prove doubters wrong.
EDIT: I forgot about Worthy's rushing. Projecting similar to last year I actually come closer to matching last year's low pass rate. Not sure how I feel about this, but ok for now.
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Scoresman
Footballguy
They added Robert Hainsey in FA, which should help tremendously. The Jaguars were particularly bad at run blocking last year and he should be a big improvement on paper. Their 2 draft picks also seem to grade out as huge upgrades, especially Milium who should see playing time sooner rather than later.
I also feel like The Jags have been one of the most poorly coached teams of Lawrence's tenure. I'm expecting the new coaching staff to have a high impact on the whole team.
Grid71
Footballguy
MarShawn Lloyd is my most targeted player in bestball drafts. Appendicitis and hamstring issue nixed most of his rookie campaign. The guy has juice. In college had high avoided tackle rate, yards after contact.
The lone game he played for Green Bay, Lloyd had 7 touches before getting injured. Don't be surprised if touches are distributed enough to put a significant dent in Jacob's ceiling.
Maybe a Cheesehead can add their thoughts.
Scoresman
Footballguy
Thanks, yes, feedback from team fans is why I made this thread.
For Lloyd, I have him at 115 carries, 483 yards, 5 TDs, which at a glance is on the high side compared to other projectors, especially with how much of a bell cow Jacobs proved to be last year.
Grid71
Footballguy
I'm probably in the minority expecting Jones to start most/all games for Indy this season.
In best ball drafts, I see Richardson getting drafted far more frequently than Jones who usually doesn't get drafted at all. Maybe it's fantasy community wish casting Richardson to start, but logically Danny Dimes is easily the better NFL QB. Change of scenery should help.
Scoresman
Footballguy
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers were expected to run more in 2024 and they definitely did. Their pass rate went from 60% down to 52%. Looking deeper however, their pass rate from week 7 on was 57%. The only thing I can find to explain this was JK Dobbins missing a good chunk of games during that span and Gus Edwards essentially being ineffective. Signing Harris and drafting Hampton is a clear indicator to me that they still want to run first so that is what I am projecting.
I think their offensive line is very well rounded and has top 10 potential. Becton is an immediate starter and upgrade, especially for the run game.
The Chargers had the best scoring defense in 2024. Looks like they had some departures in the offseason, but other signings don't have me too worried here. They should continue to be good enough to keep this a run heavy team.
The switch to a run heavy offense was not due to any shortcoming of Justin Herbert. His efficiency skyrocketed last year. 7.7 yards per pass attempt and only 3 interceptions, both career bests. But this is still a run first team. I have the team throwing around 520 passes which is in line with most projectors and similar to last year. Except Mike Clay has them throwing 574 times, which I struggle to justify.
My Hampton/Harris split is 200/170 carries.
The Chargers were expected to run more in 2024 and they definitely did. Their pass rate went from 60% down to 52%. Looking deeper however, their pass rate from week 7 on was 57%. The only thing I can find to explain this was JK Dobbins missing a good chunk of games during that span and Gus Edwards essentially being ineffective. Signing Harris and drafting Hampton is a clear indicator to me that they still want to run first so that is what I am projecting.
I think their offensive line is very well rounded and has top 10 potential. Becton is an immediate starter and upgrade, especially for the run game.
The Chargers had the best scoring defense in 2024. Looks like they had some departures in the offseason, but other signings don't have me too worried here. They should continue to be good enough to keep this a run heavy team.
The switch to a run heavy offense was not due to any shortcoming of Justin Herbert. His efficiency skyrocketed last year. 7.7 yards per pass attempt and only 3 interceptions, both career bests. But this is still a run first team. I have the team throwing around 520 passes which is in line with most projectors and similar to last year. Except Mike Clay has them throwing 574 times, which I struggle to justify.
My Hampton/Harris split is 200/170 carries.
Instinctive
Footballguy
I try my best to use YPRR, but often use YPT (target) because YPRR is paywalled or hard to track down.
The Most Predictable Wide Receiver Stats
Metrics that measure talent are much more important for wide receivers relative to running backs. And in many ways that makes sense. If a coaching staff so chooses, they can give any running back a massive amount of touches. That’s not the case at wide receiver. On a typical pass play, a WR is...www.4for4.com
I guess yards per route run and receptions for first downs really sticky compared to yards per reception.
There is a bunch of information about that I've been reading before I take a crack at it.
GregR
Footballguy
I don't do FF anymore, but would have loved this thread back when I was still playing. Great job, @Scoresman
Scoresman
Footballguy
I try my best to use YPRR, but often use YPT (target) because YPRR is paywalled or hard to track down.The Most Predictable Wide Receiver Stats
Metrics that measure talent are much more important for wide receivers relative to running backs. And in many ways that makes sense. If a coaching staff so chooses, they can give any running back a massive amount of touches. That’s not the case at wide receiver. On a typical pass play, a WR is...
I guess yards per route run and receptions for first downs really sticky compared to yards per reception.
There is a bunch of information about that I've been reading before I take a crack at it.
Paywalled information is becoming a real hurdle. I previously used footballoutsiders excellent offensive line rankings and dvoa stats, but then I think pff bought them and most of it vanished behind a paywall. I couldn’t even get final prior year offensive line rankings anymore. All of my offensive line info is now piecemealed from random sites and Reddit threads.
I get why paywalls exist but I’m not subscribing to multiple sites that all have the different pieces of info I want.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Last year, Chargers RB's had 373 carries. I know it was distributed between 4 different RB's, but mainly because of injury. Assuming Dobbins isn't eating into the carries, I think the Hampton/Harris duo will top 400 carries. Last year, here were the tandems over 370:
Robinson/Allgeier - 441 carries
Gibbs/Montgomery - 435 carries
Barkley/Gainwell - 420 carries
Jacobs/Wilson - 404 carries
Harris/Warren - 383 carries
Williams/Corum - 374 carries
Henry/Hill - 372 carries
If both Hampton and Harris stay healthy, I am having a hard time giving them only 370 carries total, unless, as I said, Dobbins eats too. Last year the Chargers were 29th in the NFL with only 1017 offensive plays. Perhaps you have them with a very small offensive play count again?
Scoresman
Footballguy
I have the chargers running 973 plays last year per pro football reference.
I have them at 525 passes, 489 runs for a total of 1,014 offensive plays. About 40 more than last year. Which seems about right, even generous considering Harbaugh’s slow pace of play.
After Harris/Hampton, I have RBs 3-5 with 55 total carries, and Herbert with 64. That totals out to 489.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Actually, they ran 1017 plays. They were sacked 44 times. But yes, remove those and you get 510 pass/463 rush for a total of 973.
Last year, LAC averaged 31.1 carries in their 11 wins, and only 20.2 carries in their 6 losses. I'm hoping for all the rushing Hampton/Harris can handle.
By the way, this thread RULES!!!
Scoresman
Footballguy
Thanks! The replies and discussion rule too!
Yeah I didn’t mention but I battled this sack discrepancy in total plays last year. I get my team stat downloads from pro football reference because of how much useful info they have, easily downloaded to excel, and free!
So I have to adjust for sacks to keep my projections and historical team totals in check. It’s worth it to keep using them as a data source.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I wonder what the difference is between the 2 metrics as far as predictive ability?I try my best to use YPRR, but often use YPT (target) because YPRR is paywalled or hard to track down.The Most Predictable Wide Receiver Stats
Metrics that measure talent are much more important for wide receivers relative to running backs. And in many ways that makes sense. If a coaching staff so chooses, they can give any running back a massive amount of touches. That’s not the case at wide receiver. On a typical pass play, a WR is...
I guess yards per route run and receptions for first downs really sticky compared to yards per reception.
There is a bunch of information about that I've been reading before I take a crack at it.
I would guess it's pretty close.
TheWinz
Footballguy
I said I would post my LAC numbers, so here goes:
QB
I am only projecting stats for Justin Herbert. Perhaps Heinicke/Lance can come in during garbage time, but why project some QB for a few snaps here and there?
Justin Herbert - 540 attempts, 360 completions, 4050 yards, 25 TD's, 7 INT's, 60 carries, 270 yards, 3 TD's
RB
Here is probably where I will freak people out. Most have Hampton outcarrying Harris, but I am not ready to do that for 2025.
Najee Harris - 220 carries, 920 yards, 9 TD's, 30 catches, 210 yards, 1 TD
Omarion Hampton - 200 carries, 900 yards, 7 TD's, 35 catches, 260 yards, 1 TD
The rest - 30 carries, 140 yards, 1 TD, 10 catches, 70 yards, 0 TD
WR
Crazy stat - Mike Williams, known as a guy who misses time, is the only WR in history to play in 18 regular season games in a season. He played 9 games each for NYJ and PIT last year.
Ladd McConkey - 90 catches, 1200 yards, 8 TD's
I am having a hard time assigning individual numbers to Mike Williams, Tre Harris, and Quentin Johnston, so just going to give them all numbers as a trio
WR2-WR4 - 120 catches, 1600 yards, 10 TD's
The rest - 10 catches, 100 yards, 0 TD
TE
Finkle and Einhorn. Einhorn and Finkle. If I can't decide, they split evenly.
Tyler Conklin - 30 catches, 280 yards, 2.5 TD's
Will Dissly - 30 catches, 280 yards, 2.5 TD's
The rest - 5 catches, 50 yards, 0 TD
I will surely adjust some of these numbers as time goes on.
QB
I am only projecting stats for Justin Herbert. Perhaps Heinicke/Lance can come in during garbage time, but why project some QB for a few snaps here and there?
Justin Herbert - 540 attempts, 360 completions, 4050 yards, 25 TD's, 7 INT's, 60 carries, 270 yards, 3 TD's
RB
Here is probably where I will freak people out. Most have Hampton outcarrying Harris, but I am not ready to do that for 2025.
Najee Harris - 220 carries, 920 yards, 9 TD's, 30 catches, 210 yards, 1 TD
Omarion Hampton - 200 carries, 900 yards, 7 TD's, 35 catches, 260 yards, 1 TD
The rest - 30 carries, 140 yards, 1 TD, 10 catches, 70 yards, 0 TD
WR
Crazy stat - Mike Williams, known as a guy who misses time, is the only WR in history to play in 18 regular season games in a season. He played 9 games each for NYJ and PIT last year.
Ladd McConkey - 90 catches, 1200 yards, 8 TD's
I am having a hard time assigning individual numbers to Mike Williams, Tre Harris, and Quentin Johnston, so just going to give them all numbers as a trio
WR2-WR4 - 120 catches, 1600 yards, 10 TD's
The rest - 10 catches, 100 yards, 0 TD
TE
Finkle and Einhorn. Einhorn and Finkle. If I can't decide, they split evenly.
Tyler Conklin - 30 catches, 280 yards, 2.5 TD's
Will Dissly - 30 catches, 280 yards, 2.5 TD's
The rest - 5 catches, 50 yards, 0 TD
I will surely adjust some of these numbers as time goes on.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
We are right in the middle of the rookie rb hype portion of the season. You just can't come in here and say this. It's reckless. It's like your opinion man. A reckless opinion. Ha ha
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Great thread and info.
I just wanted to throw out there that I think Carolina might be sneaky good this year and in traditional leagues it might be difficult to start these their players especially the wide receivers. It might be a game of guess which wr receiver to start. I think Legette will look better this year moving inside.
I just wanted to throw out there that I think Carolina might be sneaky good this year and in traditional leagues it might be difficult to start these their players especially the wide receivers. It might be a game of guess which wr receiver to start. I think Legette will look better this year moving inside.
Love that you're going against the grain a bit. Can you elaborate on why you see it this way?
TheWinz
Footballguy
1) Harbaugh knew exactly who he was getting - a RB who hasn't missed a game through college and the pros. Tread left = TONS!!
2) Harris is no slouch receiving, as evidenced by his 43 catches as a senior, and 45-catch average in the pros. No need to pull him on passing downs.
3) I have the Harris/Hampton tandem pretty close, but for 2025, I think Harris gets more work early on, and slowly cedes touches as the season goes on.
Scoresman
Footballguy
This is a bit more optimistic than mine but still fairly close. My biggest point of contention is the high number of plays you have them running, which IMO doesn't really jive with Harbaugh's slow pace. In his 4 years with the 49ers, his highest play count was barely over 1000, most years were 960-970 plays (this includes sacks).
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I think they simply decided they were committing to Gibbs who they had just drafted #12 and figured they could get some return value for him. Not necessarily an indictment. Swift had certainly had some trouble staying healthy but his last 2 seasons have been solid. I've wondered if the talk about Ben Johnson being down on Swift were/are overblown. I've been a pretty big Swift supporter for a while now but I was fairly shocked the Bears didn't draft at *least* one back in the higher rounds. And the talk of picking up someone like Chubb or Dobbins seems somewhat unlikely to me. Could totally be wrong and I like both players a lot but I don't think Chubb is going to play again and Dobbins might be the same. I don't think anyone else that is available is going to threaten Swift at this point. And I think the lack of the Bears pulling the trigger on a meaningful RB acquisition by now says a lot about how Ben Johnson views Swift. Said the homer.
Scoresman
Footballguy
Los Angeles Rams
I'm generally projecting the Rams similar to last year in play volume and ratio. But I feel weird about it because of a few reasons.
The O line last year was banged up and had a ton of positional changes week to week, and still ended up top 10 in both pass and run blocking. This is a top line in the league if healthy and possibly even if they aren't.
Then you have Kyren Williams, who could only muster 4.1 YPC behind this line. He really did not run the ball well, grading poorly in PFFs grading system. He had poor yards after contact %, explosive run %, missed tackle %, etc. but at the same time looked great in the red zone, ranking high in red zone carries, and TDs. Oh, and he also has fumbling issues. McVay has also expressed a desire to spread the ball around more. I am most likely avoiding this backfield.
I dont have Davante eating into Puka's targets too much. He can take Kupp's old workload and probably be a bit more efficient with it. Also, last year, the Rams WR4+ collectively had a 23.9% target share, which is very high. I see that going down with the addition of Adams and a healthy Higbee.
I'm generally projecting the Rams similar to last year in play volume and ratio. But I feel weird about it because of a few reasons.
The O line last year was banged up and had a ton of positional changes week to week, and still ended up top 10 in both pass and run blocking. This is a top line in the league if healthy and possibly even if they aren't.
Then you have Kyren Williams, who could only muster 4.1 YPC behind this line. He really did not run the ball well, grading poorly in PFFs grading system. He had poor yards after contact %, explosive run %, missed tackle %, etc. but at the same time looked great in the red zone, ranking high in red zone carries, and TDs. Oh, and he also has fumbling issues. McVay has also expressed a desire to spread the ball around more. I am most likely avoiding this backfield.
I dont have Davante eating into Puka's targets too much. He can take Kupp's old workload and probably be a bit more efficient with it. Also, last year, the Rams WR4+ collectively had a 23.9% target share, which is very high. I see that going down with the addition of Adams and a healthy Higbee.
zoonation
Footballguy
There is a danger in looking at his "stats on paper" given that he took the Garbage Time King title from Dak last year. Having said that, I expect he will be much better this season when it matters.
