2025 Instinctive's "Second Look" - Players whose projection differs from consensus ranks (3 Viewers)

[Instinctive]

To be updated throughout this evening. One post per position to follow.

So I've been doing this a long time. Some hits and some misses are bound to ensue. But every year, what I find most valuable are a couple things

1. This forces a completely data driven second look at some guys
2. There's usually some great discussion in here to ID methodology challenges or issues with underlying assumptions
3. There's no better way to find value than to see where you're different from the consensus

REMEMBER WHEN POSTING - these are projections. It's a model, with my tweaks, based on Warren Sharp's preview book plus historical data (plays/team, plays/coach, run/pass splits by playcaller, YPT, YPRR, efficiency changes as you age, injury returns, etc. To make discussion fruitful - STATE WHY YOU DISAGREE WITH SOMETHING - that's the whole point. So we can learn.

Some History:
It all started with league winner Jerome Harrison. Then it became some position by position threads. Post grad school, it became the "divergent projections discussions" - 2021, 2022, and 2024 (I guess I was busy in 2023). There are some obvious misses in there, but in the past 4 years you can also see major league winners for anyone who got them - Saquon and Henry last year, Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp's triple crown year, Etienne in 2022...big hits. Home runs. (and, again, some strikeouts. But when you're looking for undervalued guys, the strikeouts hurt a lot less than the home runs help).


I used FBG's current consensus ADP tool to decide what consensus was and therefore where I am meaningfully different with just these raw projections. Note that all of these are 0.5 PPR, so I guess some of the slottier guys and pass catching backs would move up a little in full PPR, but since I'm staying intra position, I think the effect isn't huge. It is 4pt passing TDs so the rushers are getting a boost from that.


This year's BLUF:

Quarterbacks:
Higher on Brock Purdy (QB6, consensus 10) and Jordan Love (QB7, consensus 17)

Lower on Bo Nix (QB15, consensus 8) and Baker Mayfield (QB22, consensus 7)

Running Backs:
Higher on Josh Jacobs (RB1, consensus 9), Jeanty (RB3, consensus 6), JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey (RB13, consensus 24 and RB 14, consensus 22), Pacheco (RB16, consensus 24), Charbonnet (RB22, consensus 37), Bigsby (RB25, consensus 40)

Lower on James Cook (RB20, consensus 13) and Breece Hall (RB28, consensus 14)

Wide Receivers:
Higher on Tyreek (WR4, consensus 13), Nico Collins (WR3, consensus 7), Davante Adams (WR10, consensus 18), Jaylen Waddle (WR14, consensus 31), Keon Coleman (WR17, consensus 48). Zay Flowers (WR21, consensus 29) and Ricky Pearsall (WR25, consensus 39)

Lower on Justin Jefferson (WR13, consensus 2), Malik Nabers (WR8, consensus 4), Amon-Ra St Brown (WR20, consensus 5), and Garrett Wilson (WR31, consensus 15)

Tight Ends:
Higher on Andrews (TE4, consensus 7), Njoku (TE5, consensus 9), Kincaid (TE7, consensus 13) - and I have TE5-10 all pretty close, and Brenton Strange (TE11, consensus 21)

Lower on Hockenson (TE10, consensus 5) and Engram (TE16, consensus 8)



Details to follow!

 

[Instinctive]

Quarterbacks

Higher on Brock Purdy (QB6, consensus 10): 544 PA, 4787 yards, 33 TDs, 14 INTs, 60 carries for 238 yards and 3 TDs

San Francisco has one of the easiest schedules of opposing defenses ever. It's remarkably easy for a team that should be remarkably good on offense anyway. It's mind blowing. I'm surprised I don't have CMC as too high but he's a top3-5 guy everywhere anyway. Purdy showed last year that he is a top tier QB. He's the real deal. And he has the best playcaller/designer in the NFL with great weapons at his disposal AND AN INCREDIBLY EASY AND SOFT SCHEDULE OF OPPOSING DEFENSES.

8.8 YPA is a slight improvement on last year but still down almost a full yard from 2023. 6% TD ratio is up from last year's 4.4%, but down from 7.6 and 7.0 his first two seasons. 544 attempts would be the most he's been n pace to throw in SF, but it's still only a 51% pass split vs the runs I project, which is right in the wheelhouse with this team. if anything derails this, it would be volume.


Higher on Jordan Love (QB7, consensus 17): 553 PA, 4696 yards, 34 TDs, 13 INTs, 42 carries for 170 yards and 2 TDs

I think Golden and his own health improve on last year and bring us up from 8 YPA to 8.5. In his fully healthy 2023, they threw it 579 times. Easier schedule than last year as well, so I'm ok with the improved YPA and an uptick from 5.9% TDs to 6.2% TDs. He's steadily improved every year and I apparently think this offense is going to HUM this year (more on that with Jacobs). i think GB could have the best offensive stats in the league, so it's an offense I think you want to grab pieces of wherever you are able.

Lower on Bo Nix (QB15, consensus 8): 544 PA, 3808 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 82 carries for 367 yards and 2 TDs

I believe I have him running a little less than others? He ran i 92 times last year, and I think improved pocket presence from him is likely to dial that back a little as most were scrambles not designed runs. YPA improves to 7, TD rate falls a tiny bit from 5.1% to 4.8% (they play some tough pass defenses and have a phenomenal run blocking line and now have two RBs who don't suck, so i think redzone work becomes more ground heavy). Maybe I'm crazy but the receivers aren't great either and I am just not sure what would lead someone to jump him way up in rushing or in TD passes or in YPA.

Lower on Baker Mayfield (QB22, consensus 7): 561 PA, 4151 yards, 28 TDs, 15 INTs, 42 carries for 128 yards and 1 TD

Talk about TD overperformance. Sharp has him at more than 12 TD passes over expectation last year. So I'm obviously expecting that to come back down, especially without the playcaller who made it happen. Taking YPA back to 7.4 (which would be the second highest mark since 2018 after last season and is more in line with his 7.2, 7.3, 7.2, 6.5, 7.1 leading into 2024) which is still quite good. He doesn't really run. I've still got him at a totally respectable 5% TD ratio, in line with his career 5.6, 4.1, 5.3, 4.1, 3, 4.9...and then last year's 7.2% anomaly. Offense takes a small step back, they run in a couple more near the goal line...it doesn't take much for these pure pocket passers to drop in rankings if they don't throw 700 passes and 40 TDs.

 

[Instinctive]

Running Backs

Higher on Josh Jacobs (RB1, consensus 9): 306 carries, 1377 yards, 15 TDs, 11% target share for 50/425/2

Great offense with great playcaller. Good offensive line. Every element of their opposing rush defense schedule is projected weaker than last year. Same carry pace as last 2 seasons, less than the one before (he's a workhorse, and durable). Kept his 5% TD ratio on rushes because the offense is so good and he's so clearly the GL guy. If there's a weak spot in the projection, I think it's those TDs. Last year was only a 9% target share, but prior 3 years were 13, 11, and 11 so I bumped him back up a little.

FWIW, he's basically tied with Bijan. If he dropped down to 9% target share that would be around 20 fantasy points, and he'd drop to #2, but now basically tied with Jeanty, CMC, Saquon, and Achane all within 2 points of each other.


Higher on JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey (RB13, consensus 24 and RB 14, consensus 22)
Dobbins: 245 carries, 1175 yards, 15 TDs, 5% target share for 22/122/1
Harvey: 163 carries, 849 yards, 5 TDs, 17% target share for 74/601/3

They have the best run blocking OL in the league. They have the 5th best shift in rush defenses faced (meaning it gets easier, and by more than almost every team). The pass defenses faced are about the same, so they should see more success running...and that's before you consider just how many yards before and after contact they got last year (read: they got a lot before and very little after) and how little explosion they had in the run game (and the weakest projected part of this seasons slate? Defenses that give up explosive runs!). Javonte was 45th out of 46 qualifying RBs in rush yards over expectation. 46/46 in yards after contact per rush. 44/46 in longest rush. 42 of 46 in YPC. Dude suu-uuuu-uuucked.

Harvey's explosive run rate? Second among all rookie backs to TreVeyon Henderson. Dobbins last year? 6th in the NFL among all RBs in explosive run rate (13.8% of rushes). There's an interesting thing here, which is that Dobbins grades out really well in pass pro but he's always been a pretty meh receiver. Whereas Harvey's college receiving stats indicate he is a big play waiting to happen...but he's bad in pass pro (kind of like Jahmyr Gibbs was). I think based on prior Payton offenses that it's more likely Harvey and Dobbins see passing down work together and Harvey sees a decent amount of motion, slot, etc as well as designed screens and such.


Higher on Pacheco (RB16, consensus 24): 304 carries for 1397 yards, 9 TDs, 4% target share for 19/112/0

Bounce back on YPC to 2023 levels. KC's projected for the easiest explosive rush defenses faced slate. he doesn't catch the ball much and he doesn't get the goal line TDs because they like all their little gadget plays and padding Mahomes' stats a bit, but he is THE GUY running the ball there. Hunt was slow and didn't create much on his own last year. Mitchell is apparently a cut candidate. Brashard Smith is a slot receiver. I think we'll see Hunt get a lot of the receiving work (and the 2/3 TEs after Kelce) but I think Pacheco is gonna eat.


Higher on Charbonnet (RB22, consensus 37): 204 carries for 898 yards, and 8 TDs with 9% target share for 40/308/1

I have Walker getting 45% of carries and Charbonnet getting 40%. Walker 11% of targets, Charbonnet 9%. These backs feel like they have to be involved heavily in the passing game due to the receiver situation and because Klint Kubiak sure seems to like targeting them everywhere he goes. I gave both backs 4.4 YPC - I think Walker dances and hits more hoe runs, but Charbonnet hits the hole hard and gets consistent gains. Kubiak also likes to run a lot of plays, so that creates more opportunities for volume.

If I were actually ranking them, KWIII already have lower body challenges this preseason would create additional upside.


Higher on Bigsby (RB25, consensus 40): 238 carries for 1142 yards and 10 TDs, 4% target share for 13/101/0

I've been trying to parse camp reports and put that in concert with Coen's style over time and the skillsets we've seen the past couple seasons in Jacksonville. I'm giving Bigsby 50% of the team's rushing share, (30% to Etienne) but very little 3rd down work (seems like that will be all Etienne). With Coen's arrival and what seem like some OL improvements combined with better playcalling and a MUCH easier run schedule (they get more easy than any other team, after facing one of the hardest run defense schedules last season to a middle of the road / bottom half slate this season), I bumped him up to 4.8 YPC from 4.6 last season. I think it's probably sensible to target both JAC guys at cost right now.


Lower on James Cook (RB17, consensus 13):

Fewer TDs. Same YPC, roughly same rush share, roughly same target share. Just taking his 7.7% of carries for TDs back to 4% (prior two seasons were 2.2% and 0.8%). Basically the opposite of last year when I banged the drum of "he's gonna score more TDs 0.8% is really unlucky with his usage. "


Lower on Breece Hall (RB28, consensus 14): 221 carries for 995 yards and 6 TDs with 8% target share for 28/220/1

Fields takes away TD chances and rushing opportunities. The OL is maybe better? Their schedule gets WAY easier, which scares me a little to be low on guys but I just think Fields is bad and bad for RBs. Although on the carries he does get, I bumped his YPC up to 4.5. The thing is, if the offense is bad, they'll run fewer plays. They'll have fewer scoring opportunities. It's not super complicated. I even kept him at 2.5% rush TDs because of the easier schedule and his ability to break one now and again.

 

[Instinctive]

Wide Receivers:

Higher on Tyreek Hill (WR4, consensus 13) and Jaylen Waddle (WR14, consensus 31)
Tyreek: 28% target share for 115/1445/12
Waddle: 25% target share for 103/1378/7

I just view Miami as an exceptionally concentrated offense. The Ringer calls it "pass it to the Italians" from Kicking & Screaming. I agree with them. This still leaves 18% for Achane and 29% for other receivers and TEs. Hill's Miami tenure was 29.1, 32.1, and 20.8. Waddle has been at 24.2, 20, 22.3, and then 15.9 last season. This overall is basically a statement that I believe last year was an anomaly and this year is a return to normalcy and Mike McDaniel is an excellent offensive coach. OL, while still possibly bad, seems better. Schedule is easier.

I'm copy pasting the same TD ratio for Hill as last season still (it was in line with his other years) at 7.5%, and bumping his YPT up to 8.8. His years in Miami have been 10.1, 10.5 and 7.8. 8.8 is a little bit of splitting the baby. I think they won't be as stable on the line as in 22/23, but they'll be better than last year. I think Hill isn't as quick and fast as 2-3 years ago...but I also think he was hurt last year and isn't totally washed or anything.

Similar for Waddle. He was hurt last year and I think moreso than was let on. Between that and Tua being out a lot, he didn't get targeted much or downfield much. I think he bounces back too.



Higher on Davante Adams (WR10, consensus 18)



Higher on Keon Coleman (WR17, consensus 48)



Higher on Ricky Pearsall (WR25, consensus 39)




Lower on Justin Jefferson (WR13, consensus 2)



Lower on Amon-Ra St Brown (WR20, consensus 5)



Lower on Garrett Wilson (WR31, consensus 15)

 

[Instinctive]

Tight Ends:

Higher on David Njoku (TE5, consensus 9)


Higher on Dalton Kincaid (TE7, consensus 13)


Higher on Brenton Strange (TE11, consensus 21)



Lower on TJ Hockenson (TE10, consensus 5)


Lower on Evan Engram (TE16, consensus 8)

 

[LawFitz]

Was a little worried you wouldn't do this for us this year after you joined Sharkpool UNO. Looking forward to the write ups, which have been some of the best I've seen on these boards and off in years past.

 

[Scoresman]

I disagree

 

[Instinctive]

OK QB post done

 

[Instinctive]

I'm tired. I have kids. Will add more thoughts tomorrow sometime.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Echoing how much I love these thread Instinctive. Appreciate all the work you put into this!

 

[Chaka]

Great thread as always. Thanks for the work.

I would think with Tyreek at WR 4 (13) and Waddle at 14 (31) that you would have Tua much higher rated than consensus as well.

No?

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Great thread as always. Thanks for the work.

I would think with Tyreek at WR 4 (13) and Waddle at 14 (31) that you would have Tua much higher rated than consensus as well.

No?

I think there's a not-insignificant chance that Miami is a dumpster fire this year. Obviously he doesn't agree, will be interesting to see what he says.

 

[travdogg]

Love seeing the calls and some differing opinions.

I am gonna be really interested in your logic on Josh Jacobs as RB1, Keon Coleman>Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the low rankings of Jefferson/Hockenson (that I hope is based on a lot more than just McCarthy is unproven, because those guys were still elite with Nick Mullens in 2023)

I'm totally with you on Nix, Collins, Nabers, Kincaid, and especially Hall.

 

[LawFitz]

Keon Coleman>Amon-Ra St. Brown

 

[LawFitz]

totally with you on Nix

Usually agree with both of you on most calls, but planting my flag against with this one. Nix passed my eye test last preseason - dude can throw and run - and then exceeded it in season. He's a year and a legit WR1 from exploding IMO, and he has Sean raw
-dawg Payton actively stealing impact draft picks from lowly teams to find that WR1.

And I disagree that Dungver's newly acquired legit RBs will hinder their passing game. It’s a wonder they succeeded last year without any semblance of legit running and now they have two upside additions, including one who is lowkey Ashton Jeanty without the pocketbook.

You two are sleeping on the Bronkies, IMO. I may be a year early on this. We shall see...

 

[Instinctive]

totally with you on Nix

Usually agree with both of you on most calls, but planting my flag against with this one. Nix passed my eye test last preseason - dude can throw and run - and then exceeded it in season. He's a year and a legit WR1 from exploding IMO, and he has Sean raw
-dawg Payton actively stealing impact draft picks from lowly teams to find that WR1.

And I disagree that Dungver's newly acquired legit RBs will hinder their passing game. It’s a wonder they succeeded last year without any semblance of legit running and now they have two upside additions, including one who is lowkey Ashton Jeanty without the pocketbook.

You two are sleeping on the Bronkies, IMO. I may be a year early on this. We shall see...

Lower on Bo Nix (QB15, consensus 8): 544 PA, 3808 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 82 carries for 367 yards and 2 TDs

I believe I have him running a little less than others? He ran i 92 times last year, and I think improved pocket presence from him is likely to dial that back a little as most were scrambles not designed runs. YPA improves to 7, TD rate falls a tiny bit from 5.1% to 4.8% (they play some tough pass defenses and have a phenomenal run blocking line and now have two RBs who don't suck, so i think redzone work becomes more ground heavy). Maybe I'm crazy but the receivers aren't great either and I am just not sure what would lead someone to jump him way up in rushing or in TD passes or in YPA.

So where do you think he'll accrue more points?

 

[Instinctive]

Great thread as always. Thanks for the work.

I would think with Tyreek at WR 4 (13) and Waddle at 14 (31) that you would have Tua much higher rated than consensus as well.

No?

I have Tua QB18, which feels about the same as consensus 22.

587 PA, 4500 yards, 26 and 12, No rushing basically. Just a super concentrated offense.

 

[Instinctive]

Love seeing the calls and some differing opinions.

I am gonna be really interested in your logic on Josh Jacobs as RB1, Keon Coleman>Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the low rankings of Jefferson/Hockenson (that I hope is based on a lot more than just McCarthy is unproven, because those guys were still elite with Nick Mullens in 2023)

I'm totally with you on Nix, Collins, Nabers, Kincaid, and especially Hall.

Let's start with Amon-Ra.

25% target share (140 targets)
108/1164/7
212 points

Coleman
20% target share (112 targets)
65/1144/12
221 points

So they're the same tier, and my default scoring impacts the slottier guys like ARSB more than others (0.5 PPR - full PPR he gains 21.5 points over Coleman and is ahead of him, so your scoring matters). It pretty much comes down to TDs - I think BUF throws 32 of them and DET throws 26 of them, and I think Coleman gets a large chunk of that pie and ARSB doesn't.

 

[FarFromHome]

Wow. Great stuff man. Last time I did any type of projections like this it was the spring of 1984 for MLB baseball.

 

[LawFitz]

totally with you on Nix

Usually agree with both of you on most calls, but planting my flag against with this one. Nix passed my eye test last preseason - dude can throw and run - and then exceeded it in season. He's a year and a legit WR1 from exploding IMO, and he has Sean raw
-dawg Payton actively stealing impact draft picks from lowly teams to find that WR1.

And I disagree that Dungver's newly acquired legit RBs will hinder their passing game. It’s a wonder they succeeded last year without any semblance of legit running and now they have two upside additions, including one who is lowkey Ashton Jeanty without the pocketbook.

You two are sleeping on the Bronkies, IMO. I may be a year early on this. We shall see...

Lower on Bo Nix (QB15, consensus 8): 544 PA, 3808 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 82 carries for 367 yards and 2 TDs

I believe I have him running a little less than others? He ran i 92 times last year, and I think improved pocket presence from him is likely to dial that back a little as most were scrambles not designed runs. YPA improves to 7, TD rate falls a tiny bit from 5.1% to 4.8% (they play some tough pass defenses and have a phenomenal run blocking line and now have two RBs who don't suck, so i think redzone work becomes more ground heavy). Maybe I'm crazy but the receivers aren't great either and I am just not sure what would lead someone to jump him way up in rushing or in TD passes or in YPA.

So where do you think he'll accrue more points?

Nix played in 18 games last year, including playoffs.

In the front nine, he threw 8 TD passes. In the back nine he threw 22 TDs.

In the front nine, he rushed for 4 TDs. In the back nine he rushed for 0 TDs.

In the first four games of that back nine, he rushed a total of 9 times for 9 yards. In the last five games of the year, immediately after his bye, he rushed 29 times for 169 yards.

A lot of the variance above can be explained by a rather significant difference in quality of defensive opponents from front nine to back. You point out a tough schedule this year, which may completely trump the trend I just posted. I'll concede that.

The Broncos also improved their running backs, potentially dramatically, but I think that helps more than hurts Nix, as D's won't be able to drop as many bodies into coverage.

The team also improved on paper what was already the #1 NFL defense. This may be a big limiting factor, when combo'd with an improved run game, but they were #1 last year and that didn't stop Nix from rocketing to QB7 by the end of the season (4 pt pass).

I'll end by saying Nix passed the eye test for me last year and that I am a big believer in his coach to help him avoid any 2nd yr falloff. His WRs are mid unless 3rd yr Mims really breaks loose (he might), so again I may be a year early in being high on Nix, but I do think he finishes as a low-end QB1 this year, with upside if he continues playing like he did back half of last season.

 

[Instinctive]

Jacobs write up:

Higher on Josh Jacobs (RB1, consensus 9): 306 carries, 1377 yards, 15 TDs, 11% target share for 50/425/2

Great offense with great playcaller. Good offensive line. Every element of their opposing rush defense schedule is projected weaker than last year. Same carry pace as last 2 seasons, less than the one before (he's a workhorse, and durable). Kept his 5% TD ratio on rushes because the offense is so good and he's so clearly the GL guy. If there's a weak spot in the projection, I think it's those TDs. Last year was only a 9% target share, but prior 3 years were 13, 11, and 11 so I bumped him back up a little.

FWIW, he's basically tied with Bijan. If he dropped down to 9% target share that would be around 20 fantasy points, and he'd drop to #2, but now basically tied with Jeanty, CMC, Saquon, and Achane all within 2 points of each other.

 

[Instinctive]

totally with you on Nix

Usually agree with both of you on most calls, but planting my flag against with this one. Nix passed my eye test last preseason - dude can throw and run - and then exceeded it in season. He's a year and a legit WR1 from exploding IMO, and he has Sean raw
-dawg Payton actively stealing impact draft picks from lowly teams to find that WR1.

And I disagree that Dungver's newly acquired legit RBs will hinder their passing game. It’s a wonder they succeeded last year without any semblance of legit running and now they have two upside additions, including one who is lowkey Ashton Jeanty without the pocketbook.

You two are sleeping on the Bronkies, IMO. I may be a year early on this. We shall see...

Lower on Bo Nix (QB15, consensus 8): 544 PA, 3808 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 82 carries for 367 yards and 2 TDs

I believe I have him running a little less than others? He ran i 92 times last year, and I think improved pocket presence from him is likely to dial that back a little as most were scrambles not designed runs. YPA improves to 7, TD rate falls a tiny bit from 5.1% to 4.8% (they play some tough pass defenses and have a phenomenal run blocking line and now have two RBs who don't suck, so i think redzone work becomes more ground heavy). Maybe I'm crazy but the receivers aren't great either and I am just not sure what would lead someone to jump him way up in rushing or in TD passes or in YPA.

So where do you think he'll accrue more points?

Nix played in 18 games last year, including playoffs.

In the front nine, he threw 8 TD passes. In the back nine he three 22 TDs.

In the front nine, he rushed for 4 TDs. In the back nine he rushed for 0 TDs.

In the first four games of that back nine, he rushed a total of 9 times for 9 yards. In the last five games of the year, immediately after his bye, he rushed 29 times for 169 yards.

A lot of the variance above can be explained by a rather significant difference in quality of defensive opponents from front nine to back. You point out a tough schedule this year, which may completely trump the trend I just posted. I'll concede that.

The Broncos also improved their running backs, potentially dramatically, but I think that helps more than hurts Nix, as D's won't be able to drop as many bodies into coverage.

The team also improved on paper what was already the #1 NFL defense. This may be a big limiting factor, when combo'd with an improved run game, but they were #1 last year and that didn't stop Nix from rocketing to QB7 by the end of the season (4 pt pass).

I'll end by saying Nix passed the eye test for me last year and that I am a big believer in his coach to help him avoid any 2nd yr falloff. His WRs are mid unless 3rd yr Mims really breaks loose (he might), so again I may be a year early in being high on Nix, but I do think he finishes as a low-end QB1 this year, with upside if he continues playing like he did back half of last season.

I say this like a robot (because I want to know and update my thoughts if I am convinced, not win internet argument points): so where do you think he'll accrue more points? This is why FF discussions can get heated at times. Everything you say is true, but it could all be true and he ends up exactly where I've posted - everything you said is factored into the numbers. What does low end QB1 mean? He's 30 points behind my QB10, 35 behind my QB9, 40 behind my QB8...so you either think some of those guys will be worse, or Nix will be better - by around 30-50 points. (My interpretation of low end QB1).

FWIW - I don't think this projection indicates a 2nd year falloff. I've projected a better QB with a tougher schedule, a WAY better run game, and less TD luck.

Will he have a higher TD% than 4.8%? Last year was 5.1%. I suppose if you think the back half is who he AND the Broncos (who had literally the worst full time RB group in the NFL) are now, you'd bump him up to around 7%? That's pretty high though. It would give him 38 TD passes (12 more, 72 more points, that's a big needle mover).

Do you think he's going to run more than 5 times a game? (the last five games stat was 6 times a game, so one more rush per game, 17 games, 4.5-5 YPC...that's 80-ish yards and maybe a TD?) That probably isn't moving the needle much - 0.5 points per game or so.

Is he going to throw for a higher YPA? I already bumped him up to 7 YPA based on his second half, but tempered by a really tough passing schedule.

 

[Instinctive]

Higher on JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey (RB13, consensus 24 and RB 14, consensus 22)
Dobbins: 245 carries, 1175 yards, 15 TDs, 5% target share for 22/122/1
Harvey: 163 carries, 849 yards, 5 TDs, 17% target share for 74/601/3

They have the best run blocking OL in the league. They have the 5th best shift in rush defenses faced (meaning it gets easier, and by more than almost every team). The pass defenses faced are about the same, so they should see more success running...and that's before you consider just how many yards before and after contact they got last year (read: they got a lot before and very little after) and how little explosion they had in the run game (and the weakest projected part of this seasons slate? Defenses that give up explosive runs!). Javonte was 45th out of 46 qualifying RBs in rush yards over expectation. 46/46 in yards after contact per rush. 44/46 in longest rush. 42 of 46 in YPC. Dude suu-uuuu-uuucked.

Harvey's explosive run rate? Second among all rookie backs to TreVeyon Henderson. Dobbins last year? 6th in the NFL among all RBs in explosive run rate (13.8% of rushes). There's an interesting thing here, which is that Dobbins grades out really well in pass pro but he's always been a pretty meh receiver. Whereas Harvey's college receiving stats indicate he is a big play waiting to happen...but he's bad in pass pro (kind of like Jahmyr Gibbs was). I think based on prior Payton offenses that it's more likely Harvey and Dobbins see passing down work together and Harvey sees a decent amount of motion, slot, etc as well as designed screens and such.

 

[LawFitz]

totally with you on Nix

Usually agree with both of you on most calls, but planting my flag against with this one. Nix passed my eye test last preseason - dude can throw and run - and then exceeded it in season. He's a year and a legit WR1 from exploding IMO, and he has Sean raw
-dawg Payton actively stealing impact draft picks from lowly teams to find that WR1.

And I disagree that Dungver's newly acquired legit RBs will hinder their passing game. It’s a wonder they succeeded last year without any semblance of legit running and now they have two upside additions, including one who is lowkey Ashton Jeanty without the pocketbook.

You two are sleeping on the Bronkies, IMO. I may be a year early on this. We shall see...

Lower on Bo Nix (QB15, consensus 8): 544 PA, 3808 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 82 carries for 367 yards and 2 TDs

I believe I have him running a little less than others? He ran i 92 times last year, and I think improved pocket presence from him is likely to dial that back a little as most were scrambles not designed runs. YPA improves to 7, TD rate falls a tiny bit from 5.1% to 4.8% (they play some tough pass defenses and have a phenomenal run blocking line and now have two RBs who don't suck, so i think redzone work becomes more ground heavy). Maybe I'm crazy but the receivers aren't great either and I am just not sure what would lead someone to jump him way up in rushing or in TD passes or in YPA.

So where do you think he'll accrue more points?

Nix played in 18 games last year, including playoffs.

In the front nine, he threw 8 TD passes. In the back nine he three 22 TDs.

In the front nine, he rushed for 4 TDs. In the back nine he rushed for 0 TDs.

In the first four games of that back nine, he rushed a total of 9 times for 9 yards. In the last five games of the year, immediately after his bye, he rushed 29 times for 169 yards.

A lot of the variance above can be explained by a rather significant difference in quality of defensive opponents from front nine to back. You point out a tough schedule this year, which may completely trump the trend I just posted. I'll concede that.

The Broncos also improved their running backs, potentially dramatically, but I think that helps more than hurts Nix, as D's won't be able to drop as many bodies into coverage.

The team also improved on paper what was already the #1 NFL defense. This may be a big limiting factor, when combo'd with an improved run game, but they were #1 last year and that didn't stop Nix from rocketing to QB7 by the end of the season (4 pt pass).

I'll end by saying Nix passed the eye test for me last year and that I am a big believer in his coach to help him avoid any 2nd yr falloff. His WRs are mid unless 3rd yr Mims really breaks loose (he might), so again I may be a year early in being high on Nix, but I do think he finishes as a low-end QB1 this year, with upside if he continues playing like he did back half of last season.

I say this like a robot (because I want to know and update my thoughts if I am convinced, not win internet argument points): so where do you think he'll accrue more points? This is why FF discussions can get heated at times. Everything you say is true, but it could all be true and he ends up exactly where I've posted - everything you said is factored into the numbers. What does low end QB1 mean? He's 30 points behind my QB10, 35 behind my QB9, 40 behind my QB8...so you either think some of those guys will be worse, or Nix will be better - by around 30-50 points. (My interpretation of low end QB1).

FWIW - I don't think this projection indicates a 2nd year falloff. I've projected a better QB with a tougher schedule, a WAY better run game, and less TD luck.

Will he have a higher TD% than 4.8%? Last year was 5.1%. I suppose if you think the back half is who he AND the Broncos (who had literally the worst full time RB group in the NFL) are now, you'd bump him up to around 7%? That's pretty high though. It would give him 38 TD passes (12 more, 72 more points, that's a big needle mover).

Do you think he's going to run more than 5 times a game? (the last five games stat was 6 times a game, so one more rush per game, 17 games, 4.5-5 YPC...that's 80-ish yards and maybe a TD?) That probably isn't moving the needle much - 0.5 points per game or so.

Is he going to throw for a higher YPA? I already bumped him up to 7 YPA based on his second half, but tempered by a really tough passing schedule.

What is your actual projection for Nix? If you are under 30 passing TDs and 3750 yds, I'd take the over. If you are under 2.5 rush TDs and 250 yds, I'd take the over.

 

[Instinctive]

totally with you on Nix

Usually agree with both of you on most calls, but planting my flag against with this one. Nix passed my eye test last preseason - dude can throw and run - and then exceeded it in season. He's a year and a legit WR1 from exploding IMO, and he has Sean raw
-dawg Payton actively stealing impact draft picks from lowly teams to find that WR1.

And I disagree that Dungver's newly acquired legit RBs will hinder their passing game. It’s a wonder they succeeded last year without any semblance of legit running and now they have two upside additions, including one who is lowkey Ashton Jeanty without the pocketbook.

You two are sleeping on the Bronkies, IMO. I may be a year early on this. We shall see...

Lower on Bo Nix (QB15, consensus 8): 544 PA, 3808 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 82 carries for 367 yards and 2 TDs

I believe I have him running a little less than others? He ran i 92 times last year, and I think improved pocket presence from him is likely to dial that back a little as most were scrambles not designed runs. YPA improves to 7, TD rate falls a tiny bit from 5.1% to 4.8% (they play some tough pass defenses and have a phenomenal run blocking line and now have two RBs who don't suck, so i think redzone work becomes more ground heavy). Maybe I'm crazy but the receivers aren't great either and I am just not sure what would lead someone to jump him way up in rushing or in TD passes or in YPA.

So where do you think he'll accrue more points?

Nix played in 18 games last year, including playoffs.

In the front nine, he threw 8 TD passes. In the back nine he three 22 TDs.

In the front nine, he rushed for 4 TDs. In the back nine he rushed for 0 TDs.

In the first four games of that back nine, he rushed a total of 9 times for 9 yards. In the last five games of the year, immediately after his bye, he rushed 29 times for 169 yards.

A lot of the variance above can be explained by a rather significant difference in quality of defensive opponents from front nine to back. You point out a tough schedule this year, which may completely trump the trend I just posted. I'll concede that.

The Broncos also improved their running backs, potentially dramatically, but I think that helps more than hurts Nix, as D's won't be able to drop as many bodies into coverage.

The team also improved on paper what was already the #1 NFL defense. This may be a big limiting factor, when combo'd with an improved run game, but they were #1 last year and that didn't stop Nix from rocketing to QB7 by the end of the season (4 pt pass).

I'll end by saying Nix passed the eye test for me last year and that I am a big believer in his coach to help him avoid any 2nd yr falloff. His WRs are mid unless 3rd yr Mims really breaks loose (he might), so again I may be a year early in being high on Nix, but I do think he finishes as a low-end QB1 this year, with upside if he continues playing like he did back half of last season.

I say this like a robot (because I want to know and update my thoughts if I am convinced, not win internet argument points): so where do you think he'll accrue more points? This is why FF discussions can get heated at times. Everything you say is true, but it could all be true and he ends up exactly where I've posted - everything you said is factored into the numbers. What does low end QB1 mean? He's 30 points behind my QB10, 35 behind my QB9, 40 behind my QB8...so you either think some of those guys will be worse, or Nix will be better - by around 30-50 points. (My interpretation of low end QB1).

FWIW - I don't think this projection indicates a 2nd year falloff. I've projected a better QB with a tougher schedule, a WAY better run game, and less TD luck.

Will he have a higher TD% than 4.8%? Last year was 5.1%. I suppose if you think the back half is who he AND the Broncos (who had literally the worst full time RB group in the NFL) are now, you'd bump him up to around 7%? That's pretty high though. It would give him 38 TD passes (12 more, 72 more points, that's a big needle mover).

Do you think he's going to run more than 5 times a game? (the last five games stat was 6 times a game, so one more rush per game, 17 games, 4.5-5 YPC...that's 80-ish yards and maybe a TD?) That probably isn't moving the needle much - 0.5 points per game or so.

Is he going to throw for a higher YPA? I already bumped him up to 7 YPA based on his second half, but tempered by a really tough passing schedule.

What is your actual projection for Nix? If you are under 30 passing TDs and 3750 yds, I'd take the over. If you are under 2.5 rush TDs and 250 yds, I'd take the over.

I'm going to be a little funny and point out that it's in the post you quoted

544 PA, 3808 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 82 carries for 367 yards and 2 TDs

My question is more about where are you finding the extra yards or points or TDs? Is it volume or efficiency?

 

[Ilov80s]

Keon Coleman>Amon-Ra St. Brown

I don't think anyone would said Keon is a better player than Amon Ra but Coleman is attached to the #1 QB who is also desperate for a pass catchers to step up where as Amon Ra is part of a very crowded offense.

 

[LawFitz]

totally with you on Nix

Usually agree with both of you on most calls, but planting my flag against with this one. Nix passed my eye test last preseason - dude can throw and run - and then exceeded it in season. He's a year and a legit WR1 from exploding IMO, and he has Sean raw
-dawg Payton actively stealing impact draft picks from lowly teams to find that WR1.

And I disagree that Dungver's newly acquired legit RBs will hinder their passing game. It’s a wonder they succeeded last year without any semblance of legit running and now they have two upside additions, including one who is lowkey Ashton Jeanty without the pocketbook.

You two are sleeping on the Bronkies, IMO. I may be a year early on this. We shall see...

Lower on Bo Nix (QB15, consensus 8): 544 PA, 3808 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 82 carries for 367 yards and 2 TDs

I believe I have him running a little less than others? He ran i 92 times last year, and I think improved pocket presence from him is likely to dial that back a little as most were scrambles not designed runs. YPA improves to 7, TD rate falls a tiny bit from 5.1% to 4.8% (they play some tough pass defenses and have a phenomenal run blocking line and now have two RBs who don't suck, so i think redzone work becomes more ground heavy). Maybe I'm crazy but the receivers aren't great either and I am just not sure what would lead someone to jump him way up in rushing or in TD passes or in YPA.

So where do you think he'll accrue more points?

Nix played in 18 games last year, including playoffs.

In the front nine, he threw 8 TD passes. In the back nine he three 22 TDs.

In the front nine, he rushed for 4 TDs. In the back nine he rushed for 0 TDs.

In the first four games of that back nine, he rushed a total of 9 times for 9 yards. In the last five games of the year, immediately after his bye, he rushed 29 times for 169 yards.

A lot of the variance above can be explained by a rather significant difference in quality of defensive opponents from front nine to back. You point out a tough schedule this year, which may completely trump the trend I just posted. I'll concede that.

The Broncos also improved their running backs, potentially dramatically, but I think that helps more than hurts Nix, as D's won't be able to drop as many bodies into coverage.

The team also improved on paper what was already the #1 NFL defense. This may be a big limiting factor, when combo'd with an improved run game, but they were #1 last year and that didn't stop Nix from rocketing to QB7 by the end of the season (4 pt pass).

I'll end by saying Nix passed the eye test for me last year and that I am a big believer in his coach to help him avoid any 2nd yr falloff. His WRs are mid unless 3rd yr Mims really breaks loose (he might), so again I may be a year early in being high on Nix, but I do think he finishes as a low-end QB1 this year, with upside if he continues playing like he did back half of last season.

I say this like a robot (because I want to know and update my thoughts if I am convinced, not win internet argument points): so where do you think he'll accrue more points? This is why FF discussions can get heated at times. Everything you say is true, but it could all be true and he ends up exactly where I've posted - everything you said is factored into the numbers. What does low end QB1 mean? He's 30 points behind my QB10, 35 behind my QB9, 40 behind my QB8...so you either think some of those guys will be worse, or Nix will be better - by around 30-50 points. (My interpretation of low end QB1).

FWIW - I don't think this projection indicates a 2nd year falloff. I've projected a better QB with a tougher schedule, a WAY better run game, and less TD luck.

Will he have a higher TD% than 4.8%? Last year was 5.1%. I suppose if you think the back half is who he AND the Broncos (who had literally the worst full time RB group in the NFL) are now, you'd bump him up to around 7%? That's pretty high though. It would give him 38 TD passes (12 more, 72 more points, that's a big needle mover).

Do you think he's going to run more than 5 times a game? (the last five games stat was 6 times a game, so one more rush per game, 17 games, 4.5-5 YPC...that's 80-ish yards and maybe a TD?) That probably isn't moving the needle much - 0.5 points per game or so.

Is he going to throw for a higher YPA? I already bumped him up to 7 YPA based on his second half, but tempered by a really tough passing schedule.

What is your actual projection for Nix? If you are under 30 passing TDs and 3750 yds, I'd take the over. If you are under 2.5 rush TDs and 250 yds, I'd take the over.

I'm going to be a little funny and point out that it's in the post you quoted

544 PA, 3808 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 82 carries for 367 yards and 2 TDs

My question is more about where are you finding the extra yards or points or TDs? Is it volume or efficiency?

Sorry, totally missed that... I'm good with your numbers, except I'd bump pass TDs to 31 and rush to 3 (with upside from there, if back-half Nix continues).

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Well done overall! Some comments on your observations

Quarterbacks

Higher on Jordan Love (QB7, consensus 17): 553 PA, 4696 yards, 34 TDs, 13 INTs, 42 carries for 170 yards and 2 TDs

I think Golden and his own health improve on last year and bring us up from 8 YPA to 8.5. In his fully healthy 2023, they threw it 579 times. Easier schedule than last year as well, so I'm ok with the improved YPA and an uptick from 5.9% TDs to 6.2% TDs. He's steadily improved every year and I apparently think this offense is going to HUM this year (more on that with Jacobs). i think GB could have the best offensive stats in the league, so it's an offense I think you want to grab pieces of wherever you are able.

Lower on Baker Mayfield (QB22, consensus 7): 561 PA, 4151 yards, 28 TDs, 15 INTs, 42 carries for 128 yards and 1 TD

Talk about TD overperformance. Sharp has him at more than 12 TD passes over expectation last year. So I'm obviously expecting that to come back down, especially without the playcaller who made it happen. Taking YPA back to 7.4 (which would be the second highest mark since 2018 after last season and is more in line with his 7.2, 7.3, 7.2, 6.5, 7.1 leading into 2024) which is still quite good. He doesn't really run. I've still got him at a totally respectable 5% TD ratio, in line with his career 5.6, 4.1, 5.3, 4.1, 3, 4.9...and then last year's 7.2% anomaly. Offense takes a small step back, they run in a couple more near the goal line...it doesn't take much for these pure pocket passers to drop in rankings if they don't throw 700 passes and 40 TDs.

I think people have really forgotten about Love and what he went thru just to stay on the field last year. Couple that with a notion I feel more convinced of every year that a QB's second year starting becomes more challenging because they are facing DC's and defenses that have had an offfseason to study the book on them and I love the value on...Love

I know you mentioned he doesn't really run, but he was 10th in QB rushing yards last year. 378/3 is pretty respectable rushing support for a QB - so you have him crashing down quite a bit. Perhaps that is the anamoly for him, but he's got it in his toolbox. And if he can produce 3+ pts/game on the ground, he's going to have to really regress passing wise IMO.

Seems like you'll be filling in commentary on other players...some that caught my attention.

JK Dobbins - I do think he's being overlooked and his injury history certainly has shrapnel spread all over the FF community. Your projections do feel a bit optimistic though. Going back to QB rushing...QB's rushed for close to 17% more yardage in 2024 vs 2023 (although 2023 represented an 8.1% decline fro 2022)...but the trend the last couple of years for defenses has been to takeaway the big play it seems. And if that's the case, that probably is incentive for QB's who can use their legs, to use their legs So I'm not sure if Nix really falls off too much in the attempts department.

And if we just use 92 he had last year, that's 500 carries between JK/Harvey/Nix. And we haven't included the crumbs of McLaughlin/Estime and WR runs.

Pacheco - I'm also higher than most on Pacheco. Interested though in how you came to his low target share since he went 49/44/244/2 in 2023.

Tyreek - We all know the talent...and obviously you're accounting for an optimal situation that focuses more on the players ability to produce to those targets versus ancillary conditions that could cause disruption. And I think I saw in another thread you allude to that. But IMO, if you're ranking Top 5, those ancillary conditions can't be SO present.

 

[Instinctive]

Well done overall! Some comments on your observations

Quarterbacks

Higher on Jordan Love (QB7, consensus 17): 553 PA, 4696 yards, 34 TDs, 13 INTs, 42 carries for 170 yards and 2 TDs

I think Golden and his own health improve on last year and bring us up from 8 YPA to 8.5. In his fully healthy 2023, they threw it 579 times. Easier schedule than last year as well, so I'm ok with the improved YPA and an uptick from 5.9% TDs to 6.2% TDs. He's steadily improved every year and I apparently think this offense is going to HUM this year (more on that with Jacobs). i think GB could have the best offensive stats in the league, so it's an offense I think you want to grab pieces of wherever you are able.

Lower on Baker Mayfield (QB22, consensus 7): 561 PA, 4151 yards, 28 TDs, 15 INTs, 42 carries for 128 yards and 1 TD

Talk about TD overperformance. Sharp has him at more than 12 TD passes over expectation last year. So I'm obviously expecting that to come back down, especially without the playcaller who made it happen. Taking YPA back to 7.4 (which would be the second highest mark since 2018 after last season and is more in line with his 7.2, 7.3, 7.2, 6.5, 7.1 leading into 2024) which is still quite good. He doesn't really run. I've still got him at a totally respectable 5% TD ratio, in line with his career 5.6, 4.1, 5.3, 4.1, 3, 4.9...and then last year's 7.2% anomaly. Offense takes a small step back, they run in a couple more near the goal line...it doesn't take much for these pure pocket passers to drop in rankings if they don't throw 700 passes and 40 TDs.

I think people have really forgotten about Love and what he went thru just to stay on the field last year. Couple that with a notion I feel more convinced of every year that a QB's second year starting becomes more challenging because they are facing DC's and defenses that have had an offfseason to study the book on them and I love the value on...Love

I know you mentioned he doesn't really run, but he was 10th in QB rushing yards last year. 378/3 is pretty respectable rushing support for a QB - so you have him crashing down quite a bit. Perhaps that is the anamoly for him, but he's got it in his toolbox. And if he can produce 3+ pts/game on the ground, he's going to have to really regress passing wise IMO.

Seems like you'll be filling in commentary on other players...some that caught my attention.

JK Dobbins - I do think he's being overlooked and his injury history certainly has shrapnel spread all over the FF community. Your projections do feel a bit optimistic though. Going back to QB rushing...QB's rushed for close to 17% more yardage in 2024 vs 2023 (although 2023 represented an 8.1% decline fro 2022)...but the trend the last couple of years for defenses has been to takeaway the big play it seems. And if that's the case, that probably is incentive for QB's who can use their legs, to use their legs So I'm sure if Nix really falls off too much in the attempts department.

And if we just use 92 he had last year, that's 500 carries between JK/Harvey/Nix. And we haven't included the crumbs of McLaughlin/Estime and WR runs.

Pacheco - I'm also higher than most on Pacheco. Interested though in how you came to his low target share since he went 49/44/244/2 in 2023.

Tyreek - We all know the talent...and obviously you're accounting for an optimal situation that focuses more on the players ability to produce to those targets versus ancillary conditions that could cause disruption. And I think I saw in another thread you allude to that. But IMO, if you're ranking Top 5, those ancillary conditions can't be SO present.

Will tackle this when I get home but do want to make one thing clear: these are NOT my rankings. These are stat projections of the "likeliest" scenario I see. Rankings would include things like adjusting for risk.

 

[ProstheticRGK]

Thanks for the work on this. Very good stuff.

 

[Instinctive]

RB post fully updated


Higher on Pacheco (RB16, consensus 24): 304 carries for 1397 yards, 9 TDs, 4% target share for 19/112/0

Bounce back on YPC to 2023 levels. KC's projected for the easiest explosive rush defenses faced slate. he doesn't catch the ball much and he doesn't get the goal line TDs because they like all their little gadget plays and padding Mahomes' stats a bit, but he is THE GUY running the ball there. Hunt was slow and didn't create much on his own last year. Mitchell is apparently a cut candidate. Brashard Smith is a slot receiver. I think we'll see Hunt get a lot of the receiving work (and the 2/3 TEs after Kelce) but I think Pacheco is gonna eat.

 

[Instinctive]

This is the likeliest outcome me/my model see in Seattle:

Higher on Charbonnet (RB22, consensus 37): 204 carries for 898 yards, and 8 TDs with 9% target share for 40/308/1

I have Walker getting 45% of carries and Charbonnet getting 40%. Walker 11% of targets, Charbonnet 9%. These backs feel like they have to be involved heavily in the passing game due to the receiver situation and because Klint Kubiak sure seems to like targeting them everywhere he goes. I gave both backs 4.4 YPC - I think Walker dances and hits more hoe runs, but Charbonnet hits the hole hard and gets consistent gains. Kubiak also likes to run a lot of plays, so that creates more opportunities for volume.

If I were actually ranking them, KWIII already have lower body challenges this preseason would create additional upside.

 

[Instinctive]

I really think both guys in JAC are buys, but Bigsby is undervalued based on the model:

Higher on Bigsby (RB25, consensus 40): 238 carries for 1142 yards and 10 TDs, 4% target share for 13/101/0

I've been trying to parse camp reports and put that in concert with Coen's style over time and the skillsets we've seen the past couple seasons in Jacksonville. I'm giving Bigsby 50% of the team's rushing share, (30% to Etienne) but very little 3rd down work (seems like that will be all Etienne). With Coen's arrival and what seem like some OL improvements combined with better playcalling and a MUCH easier run schedule (they get more easy than any other team, after facing one of the hardest run defense schedules last season to a middle of the road / bottom half slate this season), I bumped him up to 4.8 YPC from 4.6 last season. I think it's probably sensible to target both JAC guys at cost right now.

 

[Instinctive]

I really doubt I'll roster any Jets based on price.

Lower on James Cook (RB17, consensus 13):

Fewer TDs. Same YPC, roughly same rush share, roughly same target share. Just taking his 7.7% of carries for TDs back to 4% (prior two seasons were 2.2% and 0.8%). Basically the opposite of last year when I banged the drum of "he's gonna score more TDs 0.8% is really unlucky with his usage. "


Lower on Breece Hall (RB28, consensus 14): 221 carries for 995 yards and 6 TDs with 8% target share for 28/220/1

Fields takes away TD chances and rushing opportunities. The OL is maybe better? Their schedule gets WAY easier, which scares me a little to be low on guys but I just think Fields is bad and bad for RBs. Although on the carries he does get, I bumped his YPC up to 4.5. The thing is, if the offense is bad, they'll run fewer plays. They'll have fewer scoring opportunities. It's not super complicated. I even kept him at 2.5% rush TDs because of the easier schedule and his ability to break one now and again.

 

[Instinctive]

Well done overall! Some comments on your observations

Quarterbacks

Higher on Jordan Love (QB7, consensus 17): 553 PA, 4696 yards, 34 TDs, 13 INTs, 42 carries for 170 yards and 2 TDs

I think Golden and his own health improve on last year and bring us up from 8 YPA to 8.5. In his fully healthy 2023, they threw it 579 times. Easier schedule than last year as well, so I'm ok with the improved YPA and an uptick from 5.9% TDs to 6.2% TDs. He's steadily improved every year and I apparently think this offense is going to HUM this year (more on that with Jacobs). i think GB could have the best offensive stats in the league, so it's an offense I think you want to grab pieces of wherever you are able.

Lower on Baker Mayfield (QB22, consensus 7): 561 PA, 4151 yards, 28 TDs, 15 INTs, 42 carries for 128 yards and 1 TD

Talk about TD overperformance. Sharp has him at more than 12 TD passes over expectation last year. So I'm obviously expecting that to come back down, especially without the playcaller who made it happen. Taking YPA back to 7.4 (which would be the second highest mark since 2018 after last season and is more in line with his 7.2, 7.3, 7.2, 6.5, 7.1 leading into 2024) which is still quite good. He doesn't really run. I've still got him at a totally respectable 5% TD ratio, in line with his career 5.6, 4.1, 5.3, 4.1, 3, 4.9...and then last year's 7.2% anomaly. Offense takes a small step back, they run in a couple more near the goal line...it doesn't take much for these pure pocket passers to drop in rankings if they don't throw 700 passes and 40 TDs.

I think people have really forgotten about Love and what he went thru just to stay on the field last year. Couple that with a notion I feel more convinced of every year that a QB's second year starting becomes more challenging because they are facing DC's and defenses that have had an offfseason to study the book on them and I love the value on...Love


I know you mentioned he doesn't really run, but he was 10th in QB rushing yards last year. 378/3 is pretty respectable rushing support for a QB - so you have him crashing down quite a bit. Perhaps that is the anamoly for him, but he's got it in his toolbox. And if he can produce 3+ pts/game on the ground, he's going to have to really regress passing wise IMO.

i think the bolded is in reference to Baker, right? Last year sticks out like a giant anomaly on his rushing (in addition to his TDs passing)

Last year he had 60 carries (previous full season paces were 62, 31, and 37) for 6.3 YPC (previous YPC were 2.6, 2.9, and 3.6). I bumped him down 1 carry per game and back to his typical 3 YPC. Previous TD rushing rates were 1.6%, 3.2%, and 2.7% prior to last year's 5%. I bumped him to a fairly normal 3% for QBs.

So even if he kept the extra 1 carry per game, I think it only turns into another 50 yards. That's not nothing, I guess, but it's not meaningful either IMO.

 

[Instinctive]

Well done overall! Some comments on your observations

JK Dobbins - I do think he's being overlooked and his injury history certainly has shrapnel spread all over the FF community. Your projections do feel a bit optimistic though. Going back to QB rushing...QB's rushed for close to 17% more yardage in 2024 vs 2023 (although 2023 represented an 8.1% decline fro 2022)...but the trend the last couple of years for defenses has been to takeaway the big play it seems. And if that's the case, that probably is incentive for QB's who can use their legs, to use their legs So I'm not sure if Nix really falls off too much in the attempts department.

And if we just use 92 he had last year, that's 500 carries between JK/Harvey/Nix. And we haven't included the crumbs of McLaughlin/Estime and WR runs.

if we knock off 10 carries from Dobbins and give them back to Nix (I did project him for 82 carries still), I'd have Dobbins at 234 rushes for still over 1100 yards. I don't think Nix rushing is impacting him. I do however project 544 rushes for Denver. They have an outstanding defense and the best OLine in the NFL, including #1 in run block win rate. They have a tough passing defense schedule but only around the 20th most difficult run defense schedule (17th overall efficiency, 26th explosive prevention). Right now the split is:

163 Harvey
245 Dobbins
82 Nix
54 others

If anything about the Dobbins projection is what worries me for being high, it is bumping him up from 5% to 6% TD rate. But I think his new offense is better, he's the guy, and (again) they have the best run blocking line in the league. So I figure more red zone trips and more inside the 5 runs.

 

[Scoresman]

Well done overall! Some comments on your observations

JK Dobbins - I do think he's being overlooked and his injury history certainly has shrapnel spread all over the FF community. Your projections do feel a bit optimistic though. Going back to QB rushing...QB's rushed for close to 17% more yardage in 2024 vs 2023 (although 2023 represented an 8.1% decline fro 2022)...but the trend the last couple of years for defenses has been to takeaway the big play it seems. And if that's the case, that probably is incentive for QB's who can use their legs, to use their legs So I'm not sure if Nix really falls off too much in the attempts department.

And if we just use 92 he had last year, that's 500 carries between JK/Harvey/Nix. And we haven't included the crumbs of McLaughlin/Estime and WR runs.

if we knock off 10 carries from Dobbins and give them back to Nix (I did project him for 82 carries still), I'd have Dobbins at 234 rushes for still over 1100 yards. I don't think Nix rushing is impacting him. I do however project 544 rushes for Denver. They have an outstanding defense and the best OLine in the NFL, including #1 in run block win rate. They have a tough passing defense schedule but only around the 20th most difficult run defense schedule (17th overall efficiency, 26th explosive prevention). Right now the split is:

163 Harvey
245 Dobbins
82 Nix
54 others

If anything about the Dobbins projection is what worries me for being high, it is bumping him up from 5% to 6% TD rate. But I think his new offense is better, he's the guy, and (again) they have the best run blocking line in the league. So I figure more red zone trips and more inside the 5 runs.

544 rush attempts seems high. Denver ran 461/451/444 times each of the last 3 years. That's a big increase even with new RBs and schedule. Vegas projects them at 9.5 wins, right around last year's actual total. You mention the great defense and OL, but they had that last year. 544 is within 10 rushes of Baltimore last year as a benchmark.

 

[Instinctive]

Well done overall! Some comments on your observations

JK Dobbins - I do think he's being overlooked and his injury history certainly has shrapnel spread all over the FF community. Your projections do feel a bit optimistic though. Going back to QB rushing...QB's rushed for close to 17% more yardage in 2024 vs 2023 (although 2023 represented an 8.1% decline fro 2022)...but the trend the last couple of years for defenses has been to takeaway the big play it seems. And if that's the case, that probably is incentive for QB's who can use their legs, to use their legs So I'm not sure if Nix really falls off too much in the attempts department.

And if we just use 92 he had last year, that's 500 carries between JK/Harvey/Nix. And we haven't included the crumbs of McLaughlin/Estime and WR runs.

if we knock off 10 carries from Dobbins and give them back to Nix (I did project him for 82 carries still), I'd have Dobbins at 234 rushes for still over 1100 yards. I don't think Nix rushing is impacting him. I do however project 544 rushes for Denver. They have an outstanding defense and the best OLine in the NFL, including #1 in run block win rate. They have a tough passing defense schedule but only around the 20th most difficult run defense schedule (17th overall efficiency, 26th explosive prevention). Right now the split is:

163 Harvey
245 Dobbins
82 Nix
54 others

If anything about the Dobbins projection is what worries me for being high, it is bumping him up from 5% to 6% TD rate. But I think his new offense is better, he's the guy, and (again) they have the best run blocking line in the league. So I figure more red zone trips and more inside the 5 runs.

544 rush attempts seems high. Denver ran 461/451/444 times each of the last 3 years. That's a big increase even with new RBs and schedule. Vegas projects them at 9.5 wins, right around last year's actual total. You mention the great defense and OL, but they had that last year. 544 is within 10 rushes of Baltimore last year as a benchmark.

Yeah, could be. Volume there is definitely the biggest risk. I just see that schedule and think they have to be far closer to 50/50 than they want. I think they'll almost be like Detroit AFC West.

 

[Instinctive]

Miami guys:

Higher on Tyreek Hill (WR4, consensus 13) and Jaylen Waddle (WR14, consensus 31)
Tyreek: 28% target share for 115/1445/12
Waddle: 25% target share for 103/1378/7

I just view Miami as an exceptionally concentrated offense. The Ringer calls it "pass it to the Italians" from Kicking & Screaming. I agree with them. This still leaves 18% for Achane and 29% for other receivers and TEs. Hill's Miami tenure was 29.1, 32.1, and 20.8. Waddle has been at 24.2, 20, 22.3, and then 15.9 last season. This overall is basically a statement that I believe last year was an anomaly and this year is a return to normalcy and Mike McDaniel is an excellent offensive coach. OL, while still possibly bad, seems better. Schedule is easier.

I'm copy pasting the same TD ratio for Hill as last season still (it was in line with his other years) at 7.5%, and bumping his YPT up to 8.8. His years in Miami have been 10.1, 10.5 and 7.8. 8.8 is a little bit of splitting the baby. I think they won't be as stable on the line as in 22/23, but they'll be better than last year. I think Hill isn't as quick and fast as 2-3 years ago...but I also think he was hurt last year and isn't totally washed or anything.

Similar for Waddle. He was hurt last year and I think moreso than was let on. Between that and Tua being out a lot, he didn't get targeted much or downfield much. I think he bounces back too.

 

[Scoresman]

Miami guys:

Higher on Tyreek Hill (WR4, consensus 13) and Jaylen Waddle (WR14, consensus 31)
Tyreek: 28% target share for 115/1445/12
Waddle: 25% target share for 103/1378/7

I just view Miami as an exceptionally concentrated offense. The Ringer calls it "pass it to the Italians" from Kicking & Screaming. I agree with them. This still leaves 18% for Achane and 29% for other receivers and TEs. Hill's Miami tenure was 29.1, 32.1, and 20.8. Waddle has been at 24.2, 20, 22.3, and then 15.9 last season. This overall is basically a statement that I believe last year was an anomaly and this year is a return to normalcy and Mike McDaniel is an excellent offensive coach. OL, while still possibly bad, seems better. Schedule is easier.

I'm copy pasting the same TD ratio for Hill as last season still (it was in line with his other years) at 7.5%, and bumping his YPT up to 8.8. His years in Miami have been 10.1, 10.5 and 7.8. 8.8 is a little bit of splitting the baby. I think they won't be as stable on the line as in 22/23, but they'll be better than last year. I think Hill isn't as quick and fast as 2-3 years ago...but I also think he was hurt last year and isn't totally washed or anything.

Similar for Waddle. He was hurt last year and I think moreso than was let on. Between that and Tua being out a lot, he didn't get targeted much or downfield much. I think he bounces back too.

I think Tua's concussions forced their hand here along with their poor Oline play in terms of YPT and aDOT. Tua is still a concussion away from disaster and their Oline is really not much better so it's hard for me to see them returning to the deep ball like in year's past if their best interest is to keep Tua healthy.

In terms of target share, I have Tyreek at 21.5, Waddle at 19, and Achane at 17.

 

[Instinctive]

Miami guys:

Higher on Tyreek Hill (WR4, consensus 13) and Jaylen Waddle (WR14, consensus 31)
Tyreek: 28% target share for 115/1445/12
Waddle: 25% target share for 103/1378/7

I just view Miami as an exceptionally concentrated offense. The Ringer calls it "pass it to the Italians" from Kicking & Screaming. I agree with them. This still leaves 18% for Achane and 29% for other receivers and TEs. Hill's Miami tenure was 29.1, 32.1, and 20.8. Waddle has been at 24.2, 20, 22.3, and then 15.9 last season. This overall is basically a statement that I believe last year was an anomaly and this year is a return to normalcy and Mike McDaniel is an excellent offensive coach. OL, while still possibly bad, seems better. Schedule is easier.

I'm copy pasting the same TD ratio for Hill as last season still (it was in line with his other years) at 7.5%, and bumping his YPT up to 8.8. His years in Miami have been 10.1, 10.5 and 7.8. 8.8 is a little bit of splitting the baby. I think they won't be as stable on the line as in 22/23, but they'll be better than last year. I think Hill isn't as quick and fast as 2-3 years ago...but I also think he was hurt last year and isn't totally washed or anything.

Similar for Waddle. He was hurt last year and I think moreso than was let on. Between that and Tua being out a lot, he didn't get targeted much or downfield much. I think he bounces back too.

I think Tua's concussions forced their hand here along with their poor Oline play in terms of YPT and aDOT. Tua is still a concussion away from disaster and their Oline is really not much better so it's hard for me to see them returning to the deep ball like in year's past if their best interest is to keep Tua healthy.

In terms of target share, I have Tyreek at 21.5, Waddle at 19, and Achane at 17.

Who else is going to catch balls then? That many targets out there implies there's value with someone like Jonnu was last season.