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2024 Instinctive's "Take a Second Look" - guys way different from consensus (1 Viewer)

Instinctive

Instinctive

Footballguy
EDITL feeling like a dummy but found an error where some rushing TDs were getting skipped. So need to re-do a few players. THANK YOU to @travdogg for doing a little match checking.


Hey everyone! Welcome to 2024's thread where I take all my top down/rate stat-based, heavily strength of schedule influenced (using Warren Sharp's data) projections and compare them to the FBG consensus rankings to see where guys are that may warrant being avoided at ADP and where potential big value lies.

Usual spiel: some of these will seem crazy, like a few years ago when I had Cooper Kupp like 30 spots higher than anyone else and projected 1800+ yards and double digit TDs (he went on to win the triple crown of receiving that season) or when Mike Williams was a top 10 WR for 10 weeks to open the year. Some of them will definitely not work out! I was far too low on Josh Allen two years in a row, for example.

All my ranks are based on a very boring 1/2RB/2WR/1TE/1 WRT flex half PPR, 4pt pass TD 25 pts per pass yard, 10/rush rec, 6 rush/rec TD league.

For the tl;dr version:
QB: Super high on Mahomes as QB2, with Allen at 1 and the two of them in a solo tier. Low on Stroud. Screwup in rush TDs vaulted Hurts back up to QB6 and moved Allen past Mahomes. It also moved Anthony Richardson way up. Others mostly unaffected.

RB: Upon fixing the rush TD error some things changed and others didnt move much. I still have JK Dobbins is my first "that's insane" guy at 14. I could very clearly be reading tea leaves wrong and this one indicated Gus Edwards, but either way I think the LAC backfield is super high opportunity for league winning style upside value. I love Saquon at RB2, Mixon is very high at RB6. Still a bit down on Kyren at RB17 and not nearly as high on James Conner. Etienne moves up a bit, Kamara and Cook fall a bit. Derrick Henry up to RB5.

WR: I do LOVE Ceedee, but in a tier of his own as WR1 not just as ranked first. I have Kupp up to 4th vs FBG 13th, and Puka down at 29th vs 8th. The three insane ones show up here: Brian Thomas Jr. and George Pickens and Keon Coleman, as WRs 8, 9, and 11. If I were to plant the flag on one, it's George Pickens, who looks like a very Tannehill/AJBrown style season under Smith as OC. I'm also much higher on Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown (makes sense if I think Mahomes goes nuclear), and much lower on Drake London and Mike Evans (in large part because their top down QB stats + target distribution implies less opportunity than people seem to think). (no changes here, rushing TDs had no real impact)

TE: I apparently love Jake Ferguson. Just think Dallas targets are hyper concentrated in Lamb and then him with not much else talent-wise, and they'll throw a LOT with a poor running game. I'm otherwise pretty chalk at TE, with Kelce, Ferguson, Andrews, LaPorta, McBride as the top 5 all around 200-210 points. (no changes here, rushing TDs didn't affect them).

Posts to follow by position!
 
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QBs:

Preamble: I actually feel really good about the guys I'm high on. Like sometimes I feel out on a limb, but sometimes I feel like a guy had a down year or two or injury and I'm just saying chances are the guy is who he's always been and if he is...watch out! I especially feel that way about Mahomes and I think about Kyler too. Love...I've basically just taken his second half and projected it out a bit with offensive growth but with some stabilization in rate metrics down a bit towards league averages. And still he ends up super high. Love I'm worried I may be too low on...but "higher than everyone else" will have to do I think.

Higher on Mahomes: I have Mahomes as QB2 in a bvirtual tie with Josh Allen.

Stats: 5432 yards, 39 TDs, 13 INTs, 351 rushing, 2 rush TDs

654 PA (that's 38.5/game and that's 8.3 YPA), (that's back up to 6% TD rate) 65 carries (in line with 75, 61, and 66 past few years with 5.4 YPC is a little less than the 5.8, 5.9, and 5.2 average of his last 3 seasons and a rush TD% of 3%, after seasons of 6.6, 0, and 3)

Historically, teams run between 59 and 69 plays per game. Andy Reid teams generally tend to be on the higher end. Better offenses generally tend to the higher end and passing a ton (SFO, and BAL seem like exceptions that prove the rule). I have KC at 1112 non-sack plays, which puts them squarely in the top 30% but not in the top 3. It lines up very well with Mahomes' career outside of last season. The 8.3 YPA would be a middle of the road YPA for his career, versus the dregs of 7.0 last season with his worst receiving corps ever. I think Rice is excellent, Brown is going to be great for them, and Worthy should combine with Brown to bring back a real deep element. I think this uplifts Kelce too, as even slowing down, he'll have a lot more room to operate and that's a win for everyone.

Higher on Kyler Murray: 4281 yards, 29 TDs, 13 INTs, 487 rushing, 5 rush TDs

High attempts in line with his return to form second half of last season, and understanding that this Cardinals offense was pretty good and only gets better in the offseason this year. I only have him at 6.9 YPA because I think he's possibly already in decline, but he's historically been at 6.9, 7.1, 7.9 before last year's 6.1. I don't even have him doing an insane amount of rushing, with only 85 attempts (5/game), a 4.6% pass TD rate right in line with his career averages when healthy, 5.8 YPC would be middle of the road average for him, and I think I'm maybe conservative on the rushes given recent paces of 107, 104, and 94 were he to play all 17 games the past 3 seasons.


Jordan Love is projecting improvement for the year...but actually pulling back a little bit from his final 10 games. I just took him from his season long 7.2 YPA to his final ten games 7.9 YPA and bumped his TD rate from 5.5% season long up to 5.8% (below his final ten games rate). I may be conservative here - I'm thinking the final ten had some luck, I think the schedule he plays this year is a little tougher, more film out on him, etc...but also all the players around him should be better so I'm not sure. I maybe am too low still.




Lower on Jalen Hurts: This one also feels super reasonable on second look, so I'll likely be avoiding him. 4069 yards, 24 TDs, 12 INTs, 612 rushing, 10 rush TDs

Identical pass attempts, actually increasing YPA with Moore now. With Saquon, I took his rush attempts down by 1.5/game. It's the low yardage and passing TDs. EDIT: FOUND AN ERROR IN RUSH TD FORMULA SO HURTS IS UP TO QB6.



Tier-wise:

Allen
Mahomes

Lamar

Dak
Hurts
Kyler
Richardson
Love
Burrow

Caleb Williams
Purdy
Goff
Stroud
Daniels
Lawrence
Deshaun
Herbert
 
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RBs:

My preamble here is to remember a couple principles: RBs get hurt and you can't predict which ones. PPG matters far more than season-long totals to me on every position, but it's especially prescient here. So unless a guy is for sure already hurt or suspended, everyone gets a full season projection. That means I am almost certainly inflated to individuals vs what will actually happen, but that's what I find more insightful.

CHANGES: Conner was benefitted by phantom rush TDs that belonged to others from one dumb unlocked reference cell. I am about the same on him as everyone else, apparently. Same with Kamara. Still much lower on Kyren overall, but at RB17, not RB22. Still low on JT at RB14.

High on Saquon: I have him as RB2 a little ahead of Bijan and Breece. Philadelphia rushing attack is a machine, their rush schedule isn't too tough, and while Hurts will steal some TDs, I think it'll be a little less and the yardage he's gonna compile is massive.

1358 rush, 10 TDs, 52 for 390 rec, 2 TDs

He's getting a 14% target share, which would be a fine rate for him historically but does represent a consolidation of Philly RB targets. 17 carries a game seems well within reach for this OLine.



High on JK Dobbins: It all comes down to this. I think the Chargers run the ball 25 times a game, and I think Dobbins gets 60% of that. That's 255 carries, 4.8 YPC, only 3% rush TD rate. If he gets the bulk here, he will be a league winner.

That comes to 1224 yards and 8 TDs, with 348 rec and another TD on 43 recs.

If Edwards got the bulk instead, same thing, But Dobbins can catch a pass so I gave him an 11% target share too. Still 4th or 5th on the team that would put him.



(HOLDS TRUE) Low on Taylor: it's mostly just TDs - still giving him 2260 carries for 1248 yards. With Richardson I just don't see many receptions and I've got him at only 7 TDs. He's like a better Gus Edwards, only instead of Lamar who never gets redzone use, it'll be tank Richardson who projects more like Allen/Hurts. FWIW he's still basically my RB8. When doing the writeup, I'm less "omg" about this.

(HOLDS TRUE) Low on Kyren Williams: Dialing some stats back reasonable to give him: 255 carries for 1148 yards, 10 TDs, 195 rec yards and 1 more TD. That would certainly be respectable.

Carries: He was on a 323 carry pace last year. I call BS, especially drafting Corum.
YPC: He was at 4.0, ran for 5.0 last year, I'm giving him 4.5
TD rate over 5% last year - putting him at 4% is still above the league expectation
Kept his 4.3 YPT identical
His target share jumped from just under 4% to just under 12%. I'm dialing it back to 8%.
He scored on 6% of targets - most RBs are between 0 and 2.5 - I dialed him back to 2%.
 
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WRs



Kupp and Puka: Maybe I'm a bit blind here, so would love some discussion. But Kupp is awesome, and he was hurt and never close to 100% last year.

Kupp has a higher first-read target share than Puka when they were both on the field.
Kupp has a WAY higher red-zone target share (38% to 30%) - and this tilts even farther to Kupp when he was actually playing, as Puka was bolstered by 5 games without Kupp taking those targets.

All that to say, even while everyone acknowledges Kupp was never healthy last year, he was the #1 receiver. I don't see why that would change now.

So:
Kupp gets a 6% TD rate (last 3 years 8.4, 6.1, and 5.3) and Puka gets 4% (3.8% last year - so I'm assuming he improves in spite of the above!!)
Kupp gets a 29% target share (my adjusted metric had him at 31.5, 34.9, and now 26.4 last year when never healthy) and Puka gets 25% (he was at 27.4% last year...again without a healthy Kupp and in many games with no Kupp at all).

That gives us: TGT/Rec/YDS/TDs
Kupp 164/125/1463/10
Nacua 142/94/1204/6

Fire away!


Super high on George Pickens: Some things aren't that hard. Who likes to throw deep balls, and still tosses a pretty good one? Russell Wilson. Who else likes to toss deep balls? Justin Fields. Who likes to call deep balls off play action? Arthur Smith. Who likes to catch deep balls? George Pickens. Who else will catch a pass on the Steelers? Pat Freiermuth. Is he a big-time threat? No.

86/1380/9 on 138 targets (28% share) .

I've modeled a lot of this off AJ Brown with Tannehill and Smith also, a remarkably similar QB we don't think is good, receiver who is a big play guy, and not much else to throw to. I'm upping Pickens from 4.8% and 4.7% to 6.5% TDs (I think the redzone targets concentrate on him). I'm dropping his YPT from 10.8 to an even 10 (in line with guys like Brown in TEN and DK in SEA with Russ. This is only 493 PA for Pittsburgh too, near the bottom of the league!


Brian Thomas Jr and Keon Coleman
Thomas: easy, I gave him 24% of the targets in JAC. That leaves 19% each for Kirk and Engram and 17% for GabeDave, 12% for Etienne. Maybe that's too concentrated overall and other guys will get more than 9%...but I don't think so.

Engram magically had 23% last year but historically doesn't really eclipse 16%. GabeDave has been at 10, 18, and 14% his last 3 years. I think 17% may be generous for a deep ball merchant who doesn't seem that great at catching them. Kirk has been at 17%, 22%, and 19% (again, remember I'm trying to adjust for target share only in games played not full season). So 19% makes sense when he's not the best WR on the team. SOMEONE HAS TO CATCH THE BALL. I think it's the stud rookie with big play ability and strength and speed.

Keon Coleman: I can repeat all the same stuff but basically he gets 26% target share in Buffalo and Shakir is at 11%. Kincaid at 21%, Samuel at 14%. I just don't believe in Shakir. He was 4% and 8% his first two seasons. Guys who are gonna be target hogs tend not to wait until year three to show it, even if Diggs was there. If I'm wrong and Shakir is great every target he gets eats into this. I just don't think he's gonna do that.
 
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Jake Ferguson love letter:

TE2. But I also have him and Kelce around 220 and the next 3 guys at around 205 (Andrews, LaPorta, McBride)

107/1159/8 and I think the TDs may be light.

152 targets is 23% of my projection for Dallas. Ceedee getting 29%.

I'm taking him to 7.6 YPT (career 7.9 and then 7.5)
His target share jumped from 8% rookie to 17% and now to 23% IMO, as he came on stronger and stronger all year. (7-4-7-7-3-1-4 became 8-8-8-8-6-6)
Rec TD rate dropped from 9% to 5% last year - I'm only bumping him back up to 6% and I think there's upside room for sure in that figure the way Dak looks to all TEs and especially now him in the redzone (look at prior guys like Schultz in Dallas).

I love love love this guy this year. I have McBride as a keeper option int he 9th round in a league and I'm debating taking Ferguson a little earlier than ADP anyway, or straight up not keeping McBride (which I won't actually do but the thought crossing my mind is crazy).
 
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Wow, thanks this is really awesome and at this point in the "over studying phase", super interesting.
 
I’m sure you can understand why Dobbins is ranked where he is. People are scared off by his injury history and unsure if he can ever fully recover.

Pre-injury talent plus opportunity adds up to something very good, but it’s unclear whether the pre-injury talent is still there to its full potential.

But yes, the Chargers are going to run a ton more than they used to, and I am fading their passing game as a result.
 
Instinctive said:
Hey everyone! Welcome to 2024's thread where I take all my top down/rate stat-based, heavily strength of schedule influenced (using Warren Sharp's data) projections and compare them to the FBG consensus rankings to see where guys are that may warrant being avoided at ADP and where potential big value lies.

Usual spiel: some of these will seem crazy, like a few years ago when I had Cooper Kupp like 30 spots higher than anyone else and projected 1800+ yards and double digit TDs (he went on to win the triple crown of receiving that season) or when Mike Williams was a top 10 WR for 10 weeks to open the year. Some of them will definitely not work out! I was far too low on Josh Allen two years in a row, for example.

All my ranks are based on a very boring 1/2RB/2WR/1TE/1 WRT flex half PPR, 4pt pass TD 25 pts per pass yard, 10/rush rec, 6 rush/rec TD league.

For the tl;dr version:
QB: I am way higher on Mahomes than most as overall QB1 in a tier of his own. I have Kyler Murray and Jordan Love as borderline top 5 guys instead of borderline QB1s. I am WAY lower on Hurts than others, at QB10.

RB: My projections spit out RB5-6-7 as Kamara, Cook, and Conner (FBG has at 16, 11, and 20). I have Jonathan Taylor down at 13, Kyren Williams down at 22, and JK Dobbins is my first "that's insane" guy at 15. I could very clearly be reading tea leaves wrong and this one indicated Gus Edwards, but either way I think the LAC backfield is super high opportunity for league winning style upside value.

WR: I do LOVE Ceedee, but in a tier of his own as WR1 not just as ranked first. I have Kupp up to 4th vs FBG 13th, and Puka down at 29th vs 8th. The three insane ones show up here: Brian Thomas Jr. and George Pickens and Keon Coleman, as WRs 8, 9, and 11. If I were to plant the flag on one, it's George Pickens, who looks like a very Tannehill/AJBrown style season under Smith as OC. I'm also much higher on Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown (makes sense if I think Mahomes goes nuclear), and much lower on Drake London and Mike Evans (in large part because their top down QB stats + target distribution implies less opportunity than people seem to think).

TE: I apparently love Jake Ferguson. Just think Dallas targets are hyper concentrated in Lamb and then him with not much else talent-wise, and they'll throw a LOT with a poor running game. I'm otherwise pretty chalk at TE, with Kelce, Ferguson, Andrews, LaPorta, McBride as the top 5 all around 200-210 points.

Posts to follow by position!
Click to expand...

Thanks. I'm assuming you're doing full projections for every player? Would love to see those too. Thanks.
 
Joe Bryant said:
Instinctive said:
Hey everyone! Welcome to 2024's thread where I take all my top down/rate stat-based, heavily strength of schedule influenced (using Warren Sharp's data) projections and compare them to the FBG consensus rankings to see where guys are that may warrant being avoided at ADP and where potential big value lies.

Usual spiel: some of these will seem crazy, like a few years ago when I had Cooper Kupp like 30 spots higher than anyone else and projected 1800+ yards and double digit TDs (he went on to win the triple crown of receiving that season) or when Mike Williams was a top 10 WR for 10 weeks to open the year. Some of them will definitely not work out! I was far too low on Josh Allen two years in a row, for example.

All my ranks are based on a very boring 1/2RB/2WR/1TE/1 WRT flex half PPR, 4pt pass TD 25 pts per pass yard, 10/rush rec, 6 rush/rec TD league.

For the tl;dr version:
QB: I am way higher on Mahomes than most as overall QB1 in a tier of his own. I have Kyler Murray and Jordan Love as borderline top 5 guys instead of borderline QB1s. I am WAY lower on Hurts than others, at QB10.

RB: My projections spit out RB5-6-7 as Kamara, Cook, and Conner (FBG has at 16, 11, and 20). I have Jonathan Taylor down at 13, Kyren Williams down at 22, and JK Dobbins is my first "that's insane" guy at 15. I could very clearly be reading tea leaves wrong and this one indicated Gus Edwards, but either way I think the LAC backfield is super high opportunity for league winning style upside value.

WR: I do LOVE Ceedee, but in a tier of his own as WR1 not just as ranked first. I have Kupp up to 4th vs FBG 13th, and Puka down at 29th vs 8th. The three insane ones show up here: Brian Thomas Jr. and George Pickens and Keon Coleman, as WRs 8, 9, and 11. If I were to plant the flag on one, it's George Pickens, who looks like a very Tannehill/AJBrown style season under Smith as OC. I'm also much higher on Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown (makes sense if I think Mahomes goes nuclear), and much lower on Drake London and Mike Evans (in large part because their top down QB stats + target distribution implies less opportunity than people seem to think).

TE: I apparently love Jake Ferguson. Just think Dallas targets are hyper concentrated in Lamb and then him with not much else talent-wise, and they'll throw a LOT with a poor running game. I'm otherwise pretty chalk at TE, with Kelce, Ferguson, Andrews, LaPorta, McBride as the top 5 all around 200-210 points.

Posts to follow by position!
Click to expand...

Thanks. I'm assuming you're doing full projections for every player? Would love to see those too. Thanks.
Click to expand...
That would make more sense, now that I see placeholders for comments on the positions. So I should hold my questions until further notice.
 
VikingFrog said:
Winning IS Everything said:
Love your out of the box takes, and appreciate you posting them. I agree with Kupp. I think he will surprise folks this year and out perform Nacua.
Click to expand...
What is the “why” behind this thought process @Instinctive … I’m not even disagreeing with it, I’m just curious why the data and your instincts point to Kupp drastically outperforming Puka.
Click to expand...

My good fellow

Why? How?

The man’s name is Instinctive
 
Instinctive said:
I have Kupp up to 4th vs FBG 13th, and Puka down at 29th vs 8th.
Click to expand...
I'd be interested to see the rationale / breakdown of this one. When Kupp came back last season and both these guys played together (Weeks 5 through 19), Puka ranked 7th in ppg (16.85) while Kupp ranked 28th (13.24 ppg). That was a drop off from 22.6 in 2023 and 25.7 in 2022. Kupp is 31 now (the age where most WR tend to see their numbers drop off and/or start missing some time). Allen and Adams both were 31 and ranked in the Top 10 last season (the last WR prior to that was Edelman in 2019). I am more curious as to why Nacua (8 years younger) tumbles so far.
 
Anarchy99 said:
When Kupp came back last season and both these guys played together (Weeks 5 through 19), Puka ranked 7th in ppg (16.85) while Kupp ranked 28th (13.24 ppg).
Click to expand...
While Kupp came back he got injured almost out of the box after coming back. So while he played in most games he was far from healthy or his usual self. I am guessing that is part of the reason there is a disparity.

Now Kupp being older does have its risks (especially with injury) but if both are healthy I have Kupp higher than Puka. The question is will Kupp stay healthy?
 
Good content. Appreciate all new angles.

I need to see how many rushing TDs you gave Jalen Hurts and what input you have for the Kyren/Corum split. Those are the 2 I'm hung up on. Hurts basically can't finish that low if he scores double digit rushing TDs again, which he should. Kyren, I just think you see the backfield usage much different than the rest of us.
 
Love threads like this, and can definitely see many of these happening. Brian Thomas and Puka seem particularly crazy though lol
 
QBs:

Preamble: I actually feel really good about the guys I'm high on. Like sometimes I feel out on a limb, but sometimes I feel like a guy had a down year or two or injury and I'm just saying chances are the guy is who he's always been and if he is...watch out! I especially feel that way about Mahomes and I think about Kyler too. Love...I've basically just taken his second half and projected it out a bit with offensive growth but with some stabilization in rate metrics down a bit towards league averages. And still he ends up super high. Love I'm worried I may be too low on...but "higher than everyone else" will have to do I think.

Higher on Mahomes: I have Mahomes as QB2 in a bvirtual tie with Josh Allen.

Stats: 5432 yards, 39 TDs, 13 INTs, 351 rushing, 2 rush TDs

654 PA (that's 38.5/game and that's 8.3 YPA), (that's back up to 6% TD rate) 65 carries (in line with 75, 61, and 66 past few years with 5.4 YPC is a little less than the 5.8, 5.9, and 5.2 average of his last 3 seasons and a rush TD% of 3%, after seasons of 6.6, 0, and 3)

Historically, teams run between 59 and 69 plays per game. Andy Reid teams generally tend to be on the higher end. Better offenses generally tend to the higher end and passing a ton (SFO, and BAL seem like exceptions that prove the rule). I have KC at 1112 non-sack plays, which puts them squarely in the top 30% but not in the top 3. It lines up very well with Mahomes' career outside of last season. The 8.3 YPA would be a middle of the road YPA for his career, versus the dregs of 7.0 last season with his worst receiving corps ever. I think Rice is excellent, Brown is going to be great for them, and Worthy should combine with Brown to bring back a real deep element. I think this uplifts Kelce too, as even slowing down, he'll have a lot more room to operate and that's a win for everyone.

Higher on Kyler Murray: 4281 yards, 29 TDs, 13 INTs, 487 rushing, 5 rush TDs

High attempts in line with his return to form second half of last season, and understanding that this Cardinals offense was pretty good and only gets better in the offseason this year. I only have him at 6.9 YPA because I think he's possibly already in decline, but he's historically been at 6.9, 7.1, 7.9 before last year's 6.1. I don't even have him doing an insane amount of rushing, with only 85 attempts (5/game), a 4.6% pass TD rate right in line with his career averages when healthy, 5.8 YPC would be middle of the road average for him, and I think I'm maybe conservative on the rushes given recent paces of 107, 104, and 94 were he to play all 17 games the past 3 seasons.


Jordan Love is projecting improvement for the year...but actually pulling back a little bit from his final 10 games. I just took him from his season long 7.2 YPA to his final ten games 7.9 YPA and bumped his TD rate from 5.5% season long up to 5.8% (below his final ten games rate). I may be conservative here - I'm thinking the final ten had some luck, I think the schedule he plays this year is a little tougher, more film out on him, etc...but also all the players around him should be better so I'm not sure. I maybe am too low still.




Lower on Jalen Hurts: This one also feels super reasonable on second look, so I'll likely be avoiding him. 4069 yards, 24 TDs, 12 INTs, 612 rushing, 10 rush TDs

Identical pass attempts, actually increasing YPA with Moore now. With Saquon, I took his rush attempts down by 1.5/game. It's the low yardage and passing TDs. EDIT: FOUND AN ERROR IN RUSH TD FORMULA SO HURTS IS UP TO QB6.



Tier-wise:

Allen
Mahomes

Lamar

Dak
Hurts
Kyler
Richardson
Love
Burrow

Caleb Williams
Purdy
Goff
Stroud
Daniels
Lawrence
Deshaun
Herbert
 
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RB post updated also:

RBs:

My preamble here is to remember a couple principles: RBs get hurt and you can't predict which ones. PPG matters far more than season-long totals to me on every position, but it's especially prescient here. So unless a guy is for sure already hurt or suspended, everyone gets a full season projection. That means I am almost certainly inflated to individuals vs what will actually happen, but that's what I find more insightful.

High on Alvin Kamara: I went into this exercise thinking "Kamara is pretty washed I think." I had him last year as a huge value pick off a suspension (I always go for talented guys out the first 4 weeks, it's literally never failed me). But I came out of it thinking who cares if he's washed, it may not matter.

906 rush yards, 4 rush TDs, 624 rec yards, 83 rec, 3 rec TDs

That's it. Pretty pedestrian with a lot of room for TD upside. 18% target share (104 targets) lines up with 17.4, 17, and 18.6 target shares (not sure officially, but I have tried to approximate target share when actually playing, so last year's official is much lower for the team since he missed 4 games). Yards per target of 6 (6.6, 6.4, and 5.4 last 3 years) and a 4.1 YPC (slight improvement) because they can't possibly suck at blocking as much as last season and their projected run defense schedule is much easier.

High on James Conner: I think a lot of people are high on Conner - he was awesome last year.

959 yards, 7 TDs, 279 rec yards, 45 rec, 2 rec TDs

9% target share. falls back a bit to 4.7 YPC on only 204 carries (pace last year was 272, prior years 229 and 239). low to average 3.5% rush TD rate. And a lot of upside from these IMO. He could be the 3rd target getter instead of the 5th, he could get more TDs as this offense moves the ball, he could get way more carries, etc. Doing this writeup I may move him above Kamara even though the projections have him lower (it's also art, not pure science!).


High on JK Dobbins: It all comes down to this. I think the Chargers run the ball 25 times a game, and I think Dobbins gets 60% of that. That's 255 carries, 4.8 YPC, only 3% rush TD rate. If he gets the bulk here, he will be a league winner.

That comes to 1224 yards and 8 TDs, with 348 rec and another TD on 43 recs.

If Edwards got the bulk instead, same thing, But Dobbins can catch a pass so I gave him an 11% target share too. Still 4th or 5th on the team that would put him.



Low on Taylor: it's mostly just TDs - still giving him 2260 carries for 1248 yards. With Richardson I just don't see many receptions and I've got him at only 7 TDs. He's like a better Gus Edwards, only instead of Lamar who never gets redzone use, it'll be tank Richardson who projects more like Allen/Hurts. FWIW he's still basically my RB8. When doing the writeup, I'm less "omg" about this.

Low on Kyren Williams: Dialing some stats back reasonable to give him: 255 carries for 1148 yards, 10 TDs, 195 rec yards and 1 more TD. That would certainly be respectable.

Carries: He was on a 323 carry pace last year. I call BS, especially drafting Corum.
YPC: He was at 4.0, ran for 5.0 last year, I'm giving him 4.5
TD rate over 5% last year - putting him at 4% is still above the league expectation
Kept his 4.3 YPT identical
His target share jumped from just under 4% to just under 12%. I'm dialing it back to 8%.
He scored on 6% of targets - most RBs are between 0 and 2.5 - I dialed him back to 2%.
 
Got the WR thoughts up too:

WRs



Kupp and Puka: Maybe I'm a bit blind here, so would love some discussion. But Kupp is awesome, and he was hurt and never close to 100% last year.

Kupp has a higher first-read target share than Puka when they were both on the field.
Kupp has a WAY higher red-zone target share (38% to 30%) - and this tilts even farther to Kupp when he was actually playing, as Puka was bolstered by 5 games without Kupp taking those targets.
All that to say, even while everyone acknowledges Kupp was never healthy last year, he was the #1 receiver. I don't see why that would change now.

So:
Kupp gets a 6% TD rate (last 3 years 8.4, 6.1, and 5.3) and Puka gets 4% (3.8% last year - so I'm assuming he improves in spite of the above!!)
Kupp gets a 29% target share (my adjusted metric had him at 31.5, 34.9, and now 26.4 last year when never healthy) and Puka gets 25% (he was at 27.4% last year...again without a healthy Kupp and in many games with no Kupp at all).

That gives us: TGT/Rec/YDS/TDs
Kupp 164/125/1463/10
Nacua 142/94/1204/6

Fire away!


Super high on George Pickens: Some things aren't that hard. Who likes to throw deep balls, and still tosses a pretty good one? Russell Wilson. Who else likes to toss deep balls? Justin Fields. Who likes to call deep balls off play action? Arthur Smith. Who likes to catch deep balls? George Pickens. Who else will catch a pass on the Steelers? Pat Freiermuth. Is he a big-time threat? No.

86/1380/9 on 138 targets (28% share) .

I've modeled a lot of this off AJ Brown with Tannehill and Smith also, a remarkably similar QB we don't think is good, receiver who is a big play guy, and not much else to throw to. I'm upping Pickens from 4.8% and 4.7% to 6.5% TDs (I think the redzone targets concentrate on him). I'm dropping his YPT from 10.8 to an even 10 (in line with guys like Brown in TEN and DK in SEA with Russ. This is only 493 PA for Pittsburgh too, near the bottom of the league!


Brian Thomas Jr and Keon Coleman
Thomas: easy, I gave him 24% of the targets in JAC. That leaves 19% each for Kirk and Engram and 17% for GabeDave, 12% for Etienne. Maybe that's too concentrated overall and other guys will get more than 9%...but I don't think so.

Engram magically had 23% last year but historically doesn't really eclipse 16%. GabeDave has been at 10, 18, and 14% his last 3 years. I think 17% may be generous for a deep ball merchant who doesn't seem that great at catching them. Kirk has been at 17%, 22%, and 19% (again, remember I'm trying to adjust for target share only in games played not full season). So 19% makes sense when he's not the best WR on the team. SOMEONE HAS TO CATCH THE BALL. I think it's the stud rookie with big play ability and strength and speed.

Keon Coleman: I can repeat all the same stuff but basically he gets 26% target share in Buffalo and Shakir is at 11%. Kincaid at 21%, Samuel at 14%. I just don't believe in Shakir. He was 4% and 8% his first two seasons. Guys who are gonna be target hogs tend not to wait until year three to show it, even if Diggs was there. If I'm wrong and Shakir is great every target he gets eats into this. I just don't think he's gonna do that.
 
Love this thread Instinctive. Thanks for doing it. I have been eyeing Kyler and Kupp myself. Hoping I can get them in my upcoming drafts.
 
AND TE IS DONE TOO

Jake Ferguson love letter:

TE2. But I also have him and Kelce around 220 and the next 3 guys at around 205 (Andrews, LaPorta, McBride)

107/1159/8 and I think the TDs may be light.

152 targets is 23% of my projection for Dallas. Ceedee getting 29%.

I'm taking him to 7.6 YPT (career 7.9 and then 7.5)
His target share jumped from 8% rookie to 17% and now to 23% IMO, as he came on stronger and stronger all year. (7-4-7-7-3-1-4 became 8-8-8-8-6-6)
Rec TD rate dropped from 9% to 5% last year - I'm only bumping him back up to 6% and I think there's upside room for sure in that figure the way Dak looks to all TEs and especially now him in the redzone (look at prior guys like Schultz in Dallas).

I love love love this guy this year. I have McBride as a keeper option int he 9th round in a league and I'm debating taking Ferguson a little earlier than ADP anyway, or straight up not keeping McBride (which I won't actually do but the thought crossing my mind is crazy).
 
Instinctive said:
Got the WR thoughts up too:

WRs



Kupp and Puka: Maybe I'm a bit blind here, so would love some discussion. But Kupp is awesome, and he was hurt and never close to 100% last year.

Kupp has a higher first-read target share than Puka when they were both on the field.
Kupp has a WAY higher red-zone target share (38% to 30%) - and this tilts even farther to Kupp when he was actually playing, as Puka was bolstered by 5 games without Kupp taking those targets.
All that to say, even while everyone acknowledges Kupp was never healthy last year, he was the #1 receiver. I don't see why that would change now.

So:
Kupp gets a 6% TD rate (last 3 years 8.4, 6.1, and 5.3) and Puka gets 4% (3.8% last year - so I'm assuming he improves in spite of the above!!)
Kupp gets a 29% target share (my adjusted metric had him at 31.5, 34.9, and now 26.4 last year when never healthy) and Puka gets 25% (he was at 27.4% last year...again without a healthy Kupp and in many games with no Kupp at all).

That gives us: TGT/Rec/YDS/TDs
Kupp 164/125/1463/10
Nacua 142/94/1204/6

Fire away!


Super high on George Pickens: Some things aren't that hard. Who likes to throw deep balls, and still tosses a pretty good one? Russell Wilson. Who else likes to toss deep balls? Justin Fields. Who likes to call deep balls off play action? Arthur Smith. Who likes to catch deep balls? George Pickens. Who else will catch a pass on the Steelers? Pat Freiermuth. Is he a big-time threat? No.

86/1380/9 on 138 targets (28% share) .

I've modeled a lot of this off AJ Brown with Tannehill and Smith also, a remarkably similar QB we don't think is good, receiver who is a big play guy, and not much else to throw to. I'm upping Pickens from 4.8% and 4.7% to 6.5% TDs (I think the redzone targets concentrate on him). I'm dropping his YPT from 10.8 to an even 10 (in line with guys like Brown in TEN and DK in SEA with Russ. This is only 493 PA for Pittsburgh too, near the bottom of the league!


Brian Thomas Jr and Keon Coleman
Thomas: easy, I gave him 24% of the targets in JAC. That leaves 19% each for Kirk and Engram and 17% for GabeDave, 12% for Etienne. Maybe that's too concentrated overall and other guys will get more than 9%...but I don't think so.

Engram magically had 23% last year but historically doesn't really eclipse 16%. GabeDave has been at 10, 18, and 14% his last 3 years. I think 17% may be generous for a deep ball merchant who doesn't seem that great at catching them. Kirk has been at 17%, 22%, and 19% (again, remember I'm trying to adjust for target share only in games played not full season). So 19% makes sense when he's not the best WR on the team. SOMEONE HAS TO CATCH THE BALL. I think it's the stud rookie with big play ability and strength and speed.

Keon Coleman: I can repeat all the same stuff but basically he gets 26% target share in Buffalo and Shakir is at 11%. Kincaid at 21%, Samuel at 14%. I just don't believe in Shakir. He was 4% and 8% his first two seasons. Guys who are gonna be target hogs tend not to wait until year three to show it, even if Diggs was there. If I'm wrong and Shakir is great every target he gets eats into this. I just don't think he's gonna do that.
Click to expand...
Coleman - Just read a report he's not getting separation. Of course Samuel has turf toe.

Thomas - What was Kirk's share last year? I don't see anything that happened to change that.

Nice take on Pickens, ditto Kupp.
 
BassNBrew said:
Instinctive said:
Got the WR thoughts up too:

WRs



Kupp and Puka: Maybe I'm a bit blind here, so would love some discussion. But Kupp is awesome, and he was hurt and never close to 100% last year.

Kupp has a higher first-read target share than Puka when they were both on the field.
Kupp has a WAY higher red-zone target share (38% to 30%) - and this tilts even farther to Kupp when he was actually playing, as Puka was bolstered by 5 games without Kupp taking those targets.
All that to say, even while everyone acknowledges Kupp was never healthy last year, he was the #1 receiver. I don't see why that would change now.

So:
Kupp gets a 6% TD rate (last 3 years 8.4, 6.1, and 5.3) and Puka gets 4% (3.8% last year - so I'm assuming he improves in spite of the above!!)
Kupp gets a 29% target share (my adjusted metric had him at 31.5, 34.9, and now 26.4 last year when never healthy) and Puka gets 25% (he was at 27.4% last year...again without a healthy Kupp and in many games with no Kupp at all).

That gives us: TGT/Rec/YDS/TDs
Kupp 164/125/1463/10
Nacua 142/94/1204/6

Fire away!


Super high on George Pickens: Some things aren't that hard. Who likes to throw deep balls, and still tosses a pretty good one? Russell Wilson. Who else likes to toss deep balls? Justin Fields. Who likes to call deep balls off play action? Arthur Smith. Who likes to catch deep balls? George Pickens. Who else will catch a pass on the Steelers? Pat Freiermuth. Is he a big-time threat? No.

86/1380/9 on 138 targets (28% share) .

I've modeled a lot of this off AJ Brown with Tannehill and Smith also, a remarkably similar QB we don't think is good, receiver who is a big play guy, and not much else to throw to. I'm upping Pickens from 4.8% and 4.7% to 6.5% TDs (I think the redzone targets concentrate on him). I'm dropping his YPT from 10.8 to an even 10 (in line with guys like Brown in TEN and DK in SEA with Russ. This is only 493 PA for Pittsburgh too, near the bottom of the league!


Brian Thomas Jr and Keon Coleman
Thomas: easy, I gave him 24% of the targets in JAC. That leaves 19% each for Kirk and Engram and 17% for GabeDave, 12% for Etienne. Maybe that's too concentrated overall and other guys will get more than 9%...but I don't think so.

Engram magically had 23% last year but historically doesn't really eclipse 16%. GabeDave has been at 10, 18, and 14% his last 3 years. I think 17% may be generous for a deep ball merchant who doesn't seem that great at catching them. Kirk has been at 17%, 22%, and 19% (again, remember I'm trying to adjust for target share only in games played not full season). So 19% makes sense when he's not the best WR on the team. SOMEONE HAS TO CATCH THE BALL. I think it's the stud rookie with big play ability and strength and speed.

Keon Coleman: I can repeat all the same stuff but basically he gets 26% target share in Buffalo and Shakir is at 11%. Kincaid at 21%, Samuel at 14%. I just don't believe in Shakir. He was 4% and 8% his first two seasons. Guys who are gonna be target hogs tend not to wait until year three to show it, even if Diggs was there. If I'm wrong and Shakir is great every target he gets eats into this. I just don't think he's gonna do that.
Click to expand...
Coleman - Just read a report he's not getting separation. Of course Samuel has turf toe.

Thomas - What was Kirk's share last year? I don't see anything that happened to change that.

Nice take on Pickens, ditto Kupp.
Click to expand...
I bolded the Kirk answer in there already. I totally agree. He was a 19% and I have him at 19%.
 
Instinctive said:
AND TE IS DONE TOO

Jake Ferguson love letter:

TE2. But I also have him and Kelce around 220 and the next 3 guys at around 205 (Andrews, LaPorta, McBride)

107/1159/8 and I think the TDs may be light.

152 targets is 23% of my projection for Dallas. Ceedee getting 29%.

I'm taking him to 7.6 YPT (career 7.9 and then 7.5)
His target share jumped from 8% rookie to 17% and now to 23% IMO, as he came on stronger and stronger all year. (7-4-7-7-3-1-4 became 8-8-8-8-6-6)
Rec TD rate dropped from 9% to 5% last year - I'm only bumping him back up to 6% and I think there's upside room for sure in that figure the way Dak looks to all TEs and especially now him in the redzone (look at prior guys like Schultz in Dallas).

I love love love this guy this year. I have McBride as a keeper option int he 9th round in a league and I'm debating taking Ferguson a little earlier than ADP anyway, or straight up not keeping McBride (which I won't actually do but the thought crossing my mind is crazy).
Click to expand...
With production like this (and I anticipate Pitts being in the same realm), there's a great case to be made for taking Kelce early and then Pitts/Ferguson as a flex). In a flex x 2 league I actually LaPorta/Pitts/Ferguson so my money is where my mouth is. That playoff game last year opened my eyes.
 
Instinctive said:
BassNBrew said:
Instinctive said:
Got the WR thoughts up too:

WRs



Kupp and Puka: Maybe I'm a bit blind here, so would love some discussion. But Kupp is awesome, and he was hurt and never close to 100% last year.

Kupp has a higher first-read target share than Puka when they were both on the field.
Kupp has a WAY higher red-zone target share (38% to 30%) - and this tilts even farther to Kupp when he was actually playing, as Puka was bolstered by 5 games without Kupp taking those targets.
All that to say, even while everyone acknowledges Kupp was never healthy last year, he was the #1 receiver. I don't see why that would change now.

So:
Kupp gets a 6% TD rate (last 3 years 8.4, 6.1, and 5.3) and Puka gets 4% (3.8% last year - so I'm assuming he improves in spite of the above!!)
Kupp gets a 29% target share (my adjusted metric had him at 31.5, 34.9, and now 26.4 last year when never healthy) and Puka gets 25% (he was at 27.4% last year...again without a healthy Kupp and in many games with no Kupp at all).

That gives us: TGT/Rec/YDS/TDs
Kupp 164/125/1463/10
Nacua 142/94/1204/6

Fire away!


Super high on George Pickens: Some things aren't that hard. Who likes to throw deep balls, and still tosses a pretty good one? Russell Wilson. Who else likes to toss deep balls? Justin Fields. Who likes to call deep balls off play action? Arthur Smith. Who likes to catch deep balls? George Pickens. Who else will catch a pass on the Steelers? Pat Freiermuth. Is he a big-time threat? No.

86/1380/9 on 138 targets (28% share) .

I've modeled a lot of this off AJ Brown with Tannehill and Smith also, a remarkably similar QB we don't think is good, receiver who is a big play guy, and not much else to throw to. I'm upping Pickens from 4.8% and 4.7% to 6.5% TDs (I think the redzone targets concentrate on him). I'm dropping his YPT from 10.8 to an even 10 (in line with guys like Brown in TEN and DK in SEA with Russ. This is only 493 PA for Pittsburgh too, near the bottom of the league!


Brian Thomas Jr and Keon Coleman
Thomas: easy, I gave him 24% of the targets in JAC. That leaves 19% each for Kirk and Engram and 17% for GabeDave, 12% for Etienne. Maybe that's too concentrated overall and other guys will get more than 9%...but I don't think so.

Engram magically had 23% last year but historically doesn't really eclipse 16%. GabeDave has been at 10, 18, and 14% his last 3 years. I think 17% may be generous for a deep ball merchant who doesn't seem that great at catching them. Kirk has been at 17%, 22%, and 19% (again, remember I'm trying to adjust for target share only in games played not full season). So 19% makes sense when he's not the best WR on the team. SOMEONE HAS TO CATCH THE BALL. I think it's the stud rookie with big play ability and strength and speed.

Keon Coleman: I can repeat all the same stuff but basically he gets 26% target share in Buffalo and Shakir is at 11%. Kincaid at 21%, Samuel at 14%. I just don't believe in Shakir. He was 4% and 8% his first two seasons. Guys who are gonna be target hogs tend not to wait until year three to show it, even if Diggs was there. If I'm wrong and Shakir is great every target he gets eats into this. I just don't think he's gonna do that.
Click to expand...
Coleman - Just read a report he's not getting separation. Of course Samuel has turf toe.

Thomas - What was Kirk's share last year? I don't see anything that happened to change that.

Nice take on Pickens, ditto Kupp.
Click to expand...
I bolded the Kirk answer in there already. I totally agree. He was a 19% and I have him at 19%.
Click to expand...
Thanks. Shocked he was that low. Guess it makes sense with Engram getting a thousand receptions last year.
 
BONUS WR TAKE:

I love Christian Watson. I have him very high also. He's outstanding every time he plays and he got the my legs weigh different treatment. We're all wondering what happens in GB, I think he's the alpha dog.
 
Instinctive said:
Jordan Love is projecting improvement for the year...but actually pulling back a little bit from his final 10 games. I just took him from his season long 7.2 YPA to his final ten games 7.9 YPA and bumped his TD rate from 5.5% season long up to 5.8% (below his final ten games rate). I may be conservative here - I'm thinking the final ten had some luck, I think the schedule he plays this year is a little tougher, more film out on him, etc...but also all the players around him should be better so I'm not sure. I maybe am too low still.
Click to expand...
I think he's the best QB value. Deep group of young pass catchers, mobility and room for growth given it was his first year as a starter. 4000 yards, 30+ TDs and 250/3 on the ground seems very realistic.
 
Instinctive said:
Kupp and Puka: Maybe I'm a bit blind here, so would love some discussion. But Kupp is awesome, and he was hurt and never close to 100% last year.

Kupp has a higher first-read target share than Puka when they were both on the field.
Kupp has a WAY higher red-zone target share (38% to 30%) - and this tilts even farther to Kupp when he was actually playing, as Puka was bolstered by 5 games without Kupp taking those targets.

All that to say, even while everyone acknowledges Kupp was never healthy last year, he was the #1 receiver. I don't see why that would change now.

So:
Kupp gets a 6% TD rate (last 3 years 8.4, 6.1, and 5.3) and Puka gets 4% (3.8% last year - so I'm assuming he improves in spite of the above!!)
Kupp gets a 29% target share (my adjusted metric had him at 31.5, 34.9, and now 26.4 last year when never healthy) and Puka gets 25% (he was at 27.4% last year...again without a healthy Kupp and in many games with no Kupp at all).

That gives us: TGT/Rec/YDS/TDs
Kupp 164/125/1463/10
Nacua 142/94/1204/6

Fire away!
Click to expand...

I introduced myself to the Shark Pool by registering to argue Marvin Harrison was done-zo in 2007. The result was not unlike Oh Dae-su vs. the Hallway in Oldboy. That was the day I learned you can be right and still be wrong if you're right in the wrong way.

I've been reminded of that first interaction often this summer. I believe Puka is already a superstar and there will be no significant regression. I think he will easily outperform his ADP.

In the last 6 years, Cooper Kupp has averaged enough yards per game to have had a 1K season every time. Even in his rookie year, he would have topped 925 if he hadn't missed time. That's the thing, he always misses time, and as a result only has two seasons with 1,000 yards receiving.

Missed games:
  1. 1
  2. 8
  3. 0
  4. 1 (26 yards short)
  5. 0 (triple crown season)
  6. 8
  7. 5
Anyway, I have him as WR18 in full PPR, beginning of the 4th round. I have Nacua WR8, early 2nd round. If they're both healthy they will both be plus assets on any FF team. I don't see 31 year old Kupp has having tremendous upside but he def will return value at his current ADP. It's my opinion he won't massively outperform it, but it's OK to disagree.
 
Love this thread! I do very much appreciate flag plants, and projections.

I do have to nitpick a little, as some math don't add up. If Kyler and Hurts put up what you project, Hurts would be the better player. Same thing applies with Conner and Kyren.

I will say, if there is a Nico Collins this season, I think Christian Watson is the best candidate. One of the biggest reasons Collins was such a value, is nobody was confident who the Texans top guy was, and that's true of GB too. I like throwing a few darts at GB, but it tends to be Watson or Wicks. I also like the Jake Ferguson call. McCarthy isn't gonna change who he is, and the Dallas RB room might be the worst in the NFC. To an extent, I think Cooks is probably underrated too.
 
travdogg said:
Love this thread! I do very much appreciate flag plants, and projections.

I do have to nitpick a little, as some math don't add up. If Kyler and Hurts put up what you project, Hurts would be the better player. Same thing applies with Conner and Kyren.

I will say, if there is a Nico Collins this season, I think Christian Watson is the best candidate. One of the biggest reasons Collins was such a value, is nobody was confident who the Texans top guy was, and that's true of GB too. I like throwing a few darts at GB, but it tends to be Watson or Wicks. I also like the Jake Ferguson call. McCarthy isn't gonna change who he is, and the Dallas RB room might be the worst in the NFC. To an extent, I think Cooks is probably underrated too.
Click to expand...

Yeah you're right. There's something wrong with my AZ tab - good catch. I'm gonna mess with it and see what happened.

EDIT: my points sheet had an unlocked rush TD reference cell so some guys were getting credit and some guys weren't. Thank you for taking a deeper look.
 
Last edited:
Found my error. Some rush TDs were being incorrectly counted. I've updated the QB and RB posts. Sorry if I screwed up anyone drafting last night. This is why I post these things, for community feedback!


TL;dr version is Hurts moved back up to QB5, Kyler stayed really high at QB6, Richardson jumped up to QB7.

RBs: Taylor and Kyren I'm still low on, but Conner fell way down. Saquon jumped up to RB2, Kamara and Cook fell to back end RB1s. Mixon jumps to RB6and Etienne to RB7.
 
Arizona suddenly seems to have a good stable of skill players. McBride and Harrison are probably overrated in ADP while Wilson and Dortch are good sleepers. Conner is a guy I've always liked in a fair spot. Would love to talk myself into a story that Arizona has a top offense but 1) Poor OL and 2) not sure Kyler is an above average NFL QB.
 
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