Early 2025 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings (Single QB) (2 Viewers)

[sushinsky4tsar]

Max Brosmer could find a reserve role for an NFL Team. I dropped him (and Brady Cook) from my final Single-QB rankings, but perhaps I should have listed him for Superflex rankings.

Fair omission. At one point, there was a lot of optimism that he would break the long streak of Gophers QBs not getting drafted. Obviously, it would be late if it happened. I could see a team liking him as a developmental option to fast-track for a cheap backup role. But I think most teams are hunting bigger game with their 3rd QB spot these days.

 

[socrates]

Dynasty Rookie Rankings (Single QB, PPR, No TE Premium)

ROUND ONE

1.01 | RB1 | Ashton Jeanty | Boise St. | 5-8 ½ | 211 | – | Rd. 1
1.02 | RB2 | Omarion Hampton | UNC | 5-11 ¾ | 221 | 4.48 | Rd 2
1.03 | RB3 | TreVeyon Henderson | Ohio State | 5-10 ⅛ | 202 | 4.43 | Rd. 2
1.04 | WR1* | Travis Hunter | Colorado | 6-0 ⅜ | 188 | – | Rd. 1
1.05 | WR2 | Tetairoa McMillan | Arizona | 6-4 ⅛ | 219 | – | Rd. 1
1.06 | RB4 | Quinshon Judkins | Ohio State | 5-11 ⅝ | 221 | 4.48 | Rd. 2
1.07 | WR3 | Luther Burden III | Missouri | 6-0 | 206 | 4.41 | Rd. 2
1.08 | RB5 | Kaleb Johnson | Iowa | 6-1 | 224 | 4.57 | Rd. 2
1.09 | WR4 | Emeka Egbuka | Ohio State | 6-0 ⅞ | 202 | 4.48 (Pro Day) | Rd. 2
1.10 | WR5 | Matthew Golden | Texas | 5-11 | 191 | 4.29 | Rd. 1
1.11 | TE1 | Tyler Warren | Penn State | 6-5 ½ | 256 | – | Rd. 1
1.12 | TE2 | Colston Loveland | Michigan | 6-5 ¾ | 248 | – | Rd. 1

ROUND TWO

2.01 | WR6 | Jayden Higgins | Iowa State | 6-4 ⅛ | 214 | 4.47 | Rd. 2
2.02 | RB6 | Dylan Sampson | Tennessee | 5-8 ⅛ | 200 | 4.42 (Pro Day) | Rd. 3
2.03 | RB7 | Cameron Skattebo | Arizona State | 5-9 ½ | 219 | 4.57 (Pro Day) | Rd 3
2.04 | WR7 | Jaylin Noel | Iowa State | 5-10 ¼ | 194 | 4.39 | Rd. 2
2.05 | TE3 | Mason Taylor | LSU | 6-5 ⅛ | 251 | 4.65 (Pro Day) | Rd. 2
2.06 | WR8 | Tre Harris | Ole Miss | 6-2 ⅜ | 205 | 4.54 | Rd 2
2.07 | RB8 | Devin Neal | Kansas | 5-11 ⅛ | 213 | 4.58 | Rd. 4
2.08 | QB1 | Cam Ward | Miami | 6-2 | 223 | – | Rd. 1
2.09 | WR9 | Elic Ayomanor | Stanford | 6-1 ¾ | 206 | 4.44 | Rd 3
2.10 | WR10 | Jalen Royals | Utah State | 6-0 | 205 | 4.42 | Rd. 3
2.11 | RB9 | R.J. Harvey, Jr. | UCF | 5-8 | 205 | 4.40 | Rd. 4
2.12 | TE4 | Elijah Arroyo | Miami | 6-5 ⅛ | 250 | 4.62 (Pro Day) | Rd. 2

ROUND THREE

3.01 | WR11 | Jack Bech | TCU | 6-1 ¼ | 214 | – | Rd. 3
3.02 | WR12 | Tory Horton | Colorado State | 6-2 ½ | 196 | 4.41 | Rd. 4
3.03 | WR13 | Kyle Williams | Washington State | 5-10 ⅝ | 190 | 4.40 | Rd. 3
3.04 | WR14 | Tai Felton | Maryland | 6-1 ⅛ | 183 | 4.37 | Rd. 5
3.05 | WR15 | Isaiah Bond | Texas | 5-10 ⅝ | 180 | 4.39 | Rd. 2
3.06 | RB10 | Trevor Etienne | Georgia | 5-8 ¾ | 198 | 4.42 | Rd. 5
3.07 | RB11 | Bhayshul Tuten | Virginia Tech| 5-9 ¼ | 200 | 4.32 | Rd. 4
3.08 | RB12 | DJ Giddens | Kansas State | 6-0 ¼ | 212 lbs | 4.43 | Rd. 4
3.09 | QB2 | Shedeur Sanders | Colorado | 6-1 ½ | 212 | 4.80 (Pro Day) | Rd. 1
3.10 | RB13 | Damien Martinez | Miami (FL) | 5-11 ⅝ | 217 | 4.51 | Rd. 4
3.11 | RB14 | Brashard Smith | SMU | 5-9 ⅞| 194 | 4.39 | Rd. 5
3.12 | QB3 | Jalen Milroe | Alabama | 6-1 ⅞ | 217 | 4.37 (Pro Day) | Rd. 2

ROUND FOUR

4.01 | RB15 | Jaydon Blue | Texas | 5-9 | 196 | 4.38 | Rd. 5
4.02 | RB16 | Tahj Brooks | Texas Tech | 5-9 ¼ | 214 | 4.52 | Rd. 7
4.03 | RB17 | Jordan James | Oregon | 5-9 ½ | 205 | 4.55 | Rd. 6
4.04 | WR16 | Savion Williams | TCU | 6-3 ⅞ | 222 | 4.48 | Rd. 3
4.05 | TE5 | Harold Fannin, Jr. | Bowling Green | 6-3 ¼ | 241 | 4.72 | Rd. 3
4.06 | RB18 | Jarquez Hunter | Auburn | 5-9 ⅜ | 204 | 4.44 | Rd. 6
4.07 | RB19 | Ollie Gordon II | Oklahoma State | 6-1 ⅜ | 226 lbs | 4.61 | Rd. 5
4.08 | QB4 | Jaxson Dart | Ole Miss | 6-2 ¼ | 223 | – | Rd. 1
4.09 | WR17 | Tez Johnson | Oregon | 5-9 ⅞ | 154 | 4.51 | Rd. 4
4.10 | WR18 | Xavier Restrepo | Miami | 5-9 ⅞ | 209 | 4.83 | Rd. 4
4.11 | TE6 | Terrance Ferguson | Oregon | 6-5 ⅜ | 247 | 4.63 | Rd. 4
4.12 | RB20 | Raheim Sanders | South Carolina | 6-0 | 217 | 4.46 | Rd. 6

ROUND FIVE

5.01 | RB21 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Arizona | 5-11 | 208 | 4.45 (Pro Day) | UDFA
5.02 | RB22 | Woody Marks | USC | 5-10 ⅛ | 207 lbs | 4.54 | Rd. 7
5.03 | RB23 | LeQuint Allen Jr. | Syracuse | 6-0 ⅛ | 204 | 4.50 | UDFA
5.04 | RB24 | Kyle Monangai | Rutgers | 5-8 ¼ | 211 | 4.60 | Rd. 6
5.05 | WR19 | Kaden Prather | Maryland | 6-3 ½ | 204 | 4.46 | UDFA
5.06 | QB5 | Tyler Shough| Louisville | 6-4 | 225 | – | Rd. 3
5.07 | TE7 | Gunnar Helm | Texas | 6-5 | 241 | 4.84 | Rd. 3
5.08 | TE8 | Oronde Gadsden II | Syracuse | 6-4 ⅝ | 243 | – | Rd. 5
5.09 | WR20 | Nick Nash | San Jose State | 6-2 ½ | 203 | 4.57 | Rd. 7
5.10 | WR21 | Dont’e Thornton Jr. | Tennessee | 6-4 ⅝ | 205 | 4.30 | Rd. 6
5.11 | WR22 | Jaylin Lane | Virginia Tech | 5-9 ¾ | 191 | 4.34 | Rd. 6
5.12 | WR23 | Isaac TeSlaa | Arkansas | 6-3 ⅝ | 214 | 4.43 | Rd. 6

 

[socrates]

Awesome list. I feel like I've reached a lot of the same opinions that you have at your top tiers. In a 1QB, I have Milroe in the same tier and probably draft ahead of Sanders based solely on the ceiling potential for a cheat code QB. I like Shaedeur's chances of sticking and would have a harder time passing on that in a Superflex. At this point, not willing to draft any QB in a 1QB before the 2.3 and not planning on it at that spot either, but open to it.

Haven't come around to Golden yet on the same tier as Burden & Egbuka, but might get there based on draft capital. Have a couple of picks in the top 5 of an rb needy team and Hunter is the only WR I'm likely to break ties for, but I haven't written off Tet as a possibility. With that said, hard to argue for Hunter in his own tier with the very unique and real obstacles he's up against for great fantasy wr production.

Mentioning the name just because your list is so deep, check out Daniel Jackson wr minn if you're looking to add any more names to your bottom WR tiers. His QB (Brosmer) might find a home somewhere as well.

Thank you @sushinsky4tsar I have gone back and forth on Milroe. His ceiling exceeds any other QB in this class, and it is not even close. He has elite physical talent. We have also witnessed a number of raw talented QBs waste away in the league because they do not possess the basic accuracy and decision-making skills to break through. Milroe is arguably more talented than Justin Fields, Anthony Richardson, Trey Lance or Malik Willis. His physical talent puts him in a class with Lamar Jackson and Michael Vick, and I am definitely in on drafting that kind of upside, probably even ahead of Sanders, as you say, in a single QB league. No QB in this class should be drafted until the mid 2nd.

Yep, ultimately expecting Milroe to flame out. Just comes down to at what point are you willing to "waste" a pick based on the ceiling, which could largely be realized if he manages to stick as a starting QB.

Not necessarily easy to throw a 3rd round dynasty pick at him based on how much love there is for Day 3 RBs this year. I'd probably be willing to take a shot at that point of a 1QB depending on the early reports.

I "waste" many of my rookie picks, so why not waste a pick swinging for the fences, right? Every so often you catch lightning in a bottle, but if he flames out, you cut your losses and take another swing.

You make a great point, however, about who you are willing to spend that pick on. You get a limited number of swings. Use them wisely. Taking a swing on Milroe means not taking a swing on someone else, and there are some really good players (especially RBs) in Rounds 3-4 worth taking a shot at.

I currently have Milroe at 3.12. Just ahead of him, I have DJ Giddens, Damien Martinez and Brashard Smith. I would probably rather take my shot on any of those RBs. (Milroe arguably has the higher ceiling, but perhaps the lower floor, as well.) At the beginning of Round Four, I have Jaydon Blue, Tahj Brooks, Jordan James, Savion Williams and Harold Fannin, Jr. I would rather swing for the fences on Milroe ahead of any of those.

 

[socrates]

POST NFL DRAFT
Dynasty Rookie Rankings (Single QB, PPR, No TE Premium)

ROUND ONE

1.01 | RB1 | Ashton Jeanty | LV Raiders | 5-8 ½ | 211 | – | Rd 1, Pk 6
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
1.02 | RB2 | Omarion Hampton | LA Chargers | 5-11 ¾ | 221 | 4.48 | Rd 1, Pk 22
1.03 | RB3 | TreVeyon Henderson | NE Patriots | 5-10 ⅛ | 202 | 4.43 | Rd 2, Pk 6
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
1.04 | WR1* | Travis Hunter | JAC Jaguars | 6-0 ⅜ | 188 | – | Rd 1, Pk 2
1.05 | WR2 | Tetairoa McMillan | CAR Panthers | 6-4 ⅛ | 219 | – | Rd 1, Pk 8
1.06 | RB4 | Quinshon Judkins | CLE Browns | 5-11 ⅝ | 221 | 4.48 | Rd 2, Pk 4
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
1.07 | RB5 | R.J. Harvey, Jr. | DEN Broncos | 5-8 | 205 | 4.40 | Rd 2, Pk 28
1.08 | RB6 | Kaleb Johnson | PIT Steelers | 6-1 | 224 | 4.57 | Rd 3, Pk 19
1.09 | TE1 | Colston Loveland | CHI Bears | 6-5 ¾ | 248 | – | Rd 1, Pk 10
1.10 | WR3 | Emeka Egbuka | TB Bucs | 6-0 ⅞ | 202 | 4.48 (Pro Day) | Rd 1, Pk 19
1.11 | TE2 | Tyler Warren | IND Colts | 6-5 ½ | 256 | – | Rd 1, Pk 14
1.12 | WR4 | Matthew Golden | GB Packers | 5-11 | 191 | 4.29 | Rd 1, Pk 23

ROUND TWO

2.01 | WR5 | Luther Burden III | CHI Bears | 6-0 | 206 | 4.41 | Rd 2, Pk 7
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
2.02 | WR6 | Jayden Higgins | HOU Texans | 6-4 ⅛ | 214 | 4.47 | Rd 2, Pk 2
2.03 | WR7 | Tre Harris | LA Chargers | 6-2 ⅜ | 205 | 4.54 | Rd 2, Pk 23
2.04 | WR8 | Kyle Williams | NE Patriots | 5-10 ⅝ | 190 | 4.40 | Rd 3, Pk 5
2.05 | WR9 | Jack Bech | LV Raiders | 6-1 ¼ | 214 | – | Rd 2, Pk 26
2.06 | TE3 | Mason Taylor | NY Jets | 6-5 ⅛ | 251 | 4.65 (Pro Day) | Rd 2, Pk 10
2.07 | RB7 | Cameron Skattebo | NY Giants | 5-9 ½ | 219 | 4.57 (Pro Day) | Rd 4, Pk 3
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
2.08 | QB1 | Cam Ward | TEN Titans | 6-2 | 223 | – | Rd 1, Pk 1
2.09 | WR10 | Jaylin Noel | HOU Texans | 5-10 ¼ | 194 | 4.39 | Rd 3, Pk 15
2.10 | TE4 | Terrance Ferguson | LA Rams | 6-5 ⅜ | 247 | 4.63 | Rd 2, Pk 14
2.11 | TE5 | Elijah Arroyo | SEA Seahawks | 6-5 ⅛ | 250 | 4.62 (Pro Day) | Rd 2, Pk 18
2.12 | RB8 | Bhayshul Tuten | JAC Jaguars| 5-9 ¼ | 200 | 4.32 | Rd 4, Pk 2
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~

 

[-OZ-]

POST NFL DRAFT
Dynasty Rookie Rankings (Single QB, PPR, No TE Premium)

ROUND ONE

1.01 | RB1 | Ashton Jeanty | LV Raiders | 5-8 ½ | 211 | – | Rd 1, Pk 6
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
1.02 | RB2 | Omarion Hampton | LA Chargers | 5-11 ¾ | 221 | 4.48 | Rd 1, Pk 22
1.03 | RB3 | TreVeyon Henderson | NE Patriots | 5-10 ⅛ | 202 | 4.43 | Rd 2, Pk 6
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
1.04 | WR1* | Travis Hunter | JAC Jaguars | 6-0 ⅜ | 188 | – | Rd 1, Pk 2
1.05 | WR2 | Tetairoa McMillan | CAR Panthers | 6-4 ⅛ | 219 | – | Rd 1, Pk 8
1.06 | RB4 | Quinshon Judkins | CLE Browns | 5-11 ⅝ | 221 | 4.48 | Rd 2, Pk 4
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
1.07 | RB5 | R.J. Harvey, Jr. | DEN Broncos | 5-8 | 205 | 4.40 | Rd 2, Pk 28
1.08 | RB6 | Kaleb Johnson | PIT Steelers | 6-1 | 224 | 4.57 | Rd 3, Pk 19
1.09 | TE1 | Colston Loveland | CHI Bears | 6-5 ¾ | 248 | – | Rd 1, Pk 10
1.10 | WR3 | Emeka Egbuka | TB Bucs | 6-0 ⅞ | 202 | 4.48 (Pro Day) | Rd 1, Pk 19
1.11 | TE2 | Tyler Warren | IND Colts | 6-5 ½ | 256 | – | Rd 1, Pk 14
1.12 | WR4 | Matthew Golden | GB Packers | 5-11 | 191 | 4.29 | Rd 1, Pk 23
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~

ROUND TWO

2.01 | WR5 | Luther Burden III | CHI Bears | 6-0 | 206 | 4.41 | Rd 2, Pk 7
2.02 | WR6 | Jayden Higgins | HOU Texans | 6-4 ⅛ | 214 | 4.47 | Rd 2, Pk 2
2.03 | WR7 | Tre Harris | LA Chargers | 6-2 ⅜ | 205 | 4.54 | Rd 2, Pk 23
2.04 | WR8 | Kyle Williams | NE Patriots | 5-10 ⅝ | 190 | 4.40 | Rd 3, Pk 5
2.05 | WR9 | Jack Bech | LV Raiders | 6-1 ¼ | 214 | – | Rd 2, Pk 26
2.06 | TE3 | Mason Taylor | NY Jets | 6-5 ⅛ | 251 | 4.65 (Pro Day) | Rd 2, Pk 10
2.07 | RB7 | Cameron Skattebo | NY Giants | 5-9 ½ | 219 | 4.57 (Pro Day) | Rd 4, Pk 3
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
2.08 | QB1 | Cam Ward | TEN Titans | 6-2 | 223 | – | Rd 1, Pk 1
2.09 | WR10 | Jaylin Noel | HOU Texans | 5-10 ¼ | 194 | 4.39 | Rd 3, Pk 15
2.10 | TE4 | Terrance Ferguson | LA Rams | 6-5 ⅜ | 247 | 4.63 | Rd 2, Pk 14
2.11 | TE5 | Elijah Arroyo | SEA Seahawks | 6-5 ⅛ | 250 | 4.62 (Pro Day) | Rd 2, Pk 18
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
2.12 | RB8 | Bhayshul Tuten | JAC Jaguars| 5-9 ¼ | 200 | 4.32 | Rd 4, Pk 2

Good stuff.
Curious - in IDP, assuming standard scoring, where do you put the top IDPs?
Off hand I’m thinking maybe Campbell 2.08 just ahead of Ward?

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

That second round looks bleak to me.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

That second round looks bleak to me.

Yeah, Burden and Skattebo are the only ones in that tier I'd be happy to throw an early 2nd round pick at today. Not exactly homeruns. Bears 3rd WR on a team with 2TEs and a 4th round RB, but I like the prospects enough to take a swing. I'm confident that the cream will rise to the top from the pool of Day 3 RBs, Day 2 TEs and WRs to fill out most if not all of the 2nd round with coveted picks by August.

The bounty of riches to be had deep into round 3 of rookie drafts was way overplayed by many of the talking heads. I could still see some values getting there factoring in irrational leaguemates.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

POST NFL DRAFT
Dynasty Rookie Rankings (Single QB, PPR, No TE Premium)

I would venture that you hit on as many of your pre-draft predictions as anyone that was willing to go out on the limb and project NFL draft capital pre-draft. Nice work!

 

[massraider]

POST NFL DRAFT
Dynasty Rookie Rankings (Single QB, PPR, No TE Premium)

ROUND ONE

1.01 | RB1 | Ashton Jeanty | LV Raiders | 5-8 ½ | 211 | – | Rd 1, Pk 6
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
1.02 | RB2 | Omarion Hampton | LA Chargers | 5-11 ¾ | 221 | 4.48 | Rd 1, Pk 22
1.03 | RB3 | TreVeyon Henderson | NE Patriots | 5-10 ⅛ | 202 | 4.43 | Rd 2, Pk 6
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
1.04 | WR1* | Travis Hunter | JAC Jaguars | 6-0 ⅜ | 188 | – | Rd 1, Pk 2
1.05 | WR2 | Tetairoa McMillan | CAR Panthers | 6-4 ⅛ | 219 | – | Rd 1, Pk 8
1.06 | RB4 | Quinshon Judkins | CLE Browns | 5-11 ⅝ | 221 | 4.48 | Rd 2, Pk 4
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
1.07 | RB5 | R.J. Harvey, Jr. | DEN Broncos | 5-8 | 205 | 4.40 | Rd 2, Pk 28
1.08 | RB6 | Kaleb Johnson | PIT Steelers | 6-1 | 224 | 4.57 | Rd 3, Pk 19
1.09 | TE1 | Colston Loveland | CHI Bears | 6-5 ¾ | 248 | – | Rd 1, Pk 10
1.10 | WR3 | Emeka Egbuka | TB Bucs | 6-0 ⅞ | 202 | 4.48 (Pro Day) | Rd 1, Pk 19
1.11 | TE2 | Tyler Warren | IND Colts | 6-5 ½ | 256 | – | Rd 1, Pk 14
1.12 | WR4 | Matthew Golden | GB Packers | 5-11 | 191 | 4.29 | Rd 1, Pk 23
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~

ROUND TWO

2.01 | WR5 | Luther Burden III | CHI Bears | 6-0 | 206 | 4.41 | Rd 2, Pk 7
2.02 | WR6 | Jayden Higgins | HOU Texans | 6-4 ⅛ | 214 | 4.47 | Rd 2, Pk 2
2.03 | WR7 | Tre Harris | LA Chargers | 6-2 ⅜ | 205 | 4.54 | Rd 2, Pk 23
2.04 | WR8 | Kyle Williams | NE Patriots | 5-10 ⅝ | 190 | 4.40 | Rd 3, Pk 5
2.05 | WR9 | Jack Bech | LV Raiders | 6-1 ¼ | 214 | – | Rd 2, Pk 26
2.06 | TE3 | Mason Taylor | NY Jets | 6-5 ⅛ | 251 | 4.65 (Pro Day) | Rd 2, Pk 10
2.07 | RB7 | Cameron Skattebo | NY Giants | 5-9 ½ | 219 | 4.57 (Pro Day) | Rd 4, Pk 3
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
2.08 | QB1 | Cam Ward | TEN Titans | 6-2 | 223 | – | Rd 1, Pk 1
2.09 | WR10 | Jaylin Noel | HOU Texans | 5-10 ¼ | 194 | 4.39 | Rd 3, Pk 15
2.10 | TE4 | Terrance Ferguson | LA Rams | 6-5 ⅜ | 247 | 4.63 | Rd 2, Pk 14
2.11 | TE5 | Elijah Arroyo | SEA Seahawks | 6-5 ⅛ | 250 | 4.62 (Pro Day) | Rd 2, Pk 18
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
2.12 | RB8 | Bhayshul Tuten | JAC Jaguars| 5-9 ¼ | 200 | 4.32 | Rd 4, Pk 2

I think it's a really fun class, very much eye of the beholder. I feel like I can poke holes in the dynasty outlooks of all these dudes, aside from Jeanty.

I like Henderson and Harvey's landing spots, I like that Harvey is a bit thicker, and I can get him alter, but he is also old, and didn't do anything for 4 years in college. That's nerve-wracking.
I feel like Hunter over TMac is a bet on greatness, and a good call. I am bummed about TMac's landing spot, I want a team that scores 30. But I can make a good argument that he gets a lot of work there, and maybe I am wrong about the franchise. Deciding between a CLE RB or a CAR WR at 5.......I just had to check to make sure I wasn't picking there in any rookie drafts. But what if Sanders, after all the noise, takes over at QB and plays well? It's a different team all of a sudden.

Kaleb in PIT is probably going to be a fine value, but not the pick I make. He looks like the less interesting half of a RBBC, and I don't take those guys. And he doesn't look as good as Najee did coming out.
Think I have Tyler Warren higher than most. I may change my mind. I thought Warren looks smoother and more dangerous on the field. I like the QB in CHI, but I there's a lot of young mouths to feed there.

Egbuka might be a really great value. Might be a guy catching 90 balls a year, just not this year. I haven't thought about it much, but I am picking 7, and if I had to guess, it'd be Warren/Egbuka as a decision.
I maybe take a swing on Burden over Golden. Pretty sure I would. How many fantasy owners can feel confident about how the GB target situation could break down? I am already exposed to this heartburn already (I have Reed/Doubs/Wicks in various teams), and by the time of most rookie drafts, we won't be able to get ANY clarity. I think it is just as likely that Doubs and Reed take a step forward.

So I agree with that big break right there, I just swap those two guys. It's really, really really weird to me that DJ Moore's lack of enthusiasm was seen as a reason they took Burden, a guy people have vocally questioned his work ethic. But he is a unique player, and I'm a believer in Caleb and the coach. He could also be completely buried, if Loveland is special, and Odunze is as well.

I probably have Kyle Williams at the top of the next tier, he doesn't have Nico, McConkey and Bowers across from him. Someone will take Skattebo before I do, I am not even thinking about him. With Kupp gone, I am going to be looking HARD at the athletic TE the Rams took.

 

[socrates]

POST NFL DRAFT
Dynasty Rookie Rankings (Single QB, PPR, No TE Premium)

ROUND ONE

1.01 | RB1 | Ashton Jeanty | LV Raiders | 5-8 ½ | 211 | – | Rd 1, Pk 6
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
1.02 | RB2 | Omarion Hampton | LA Chargers | 5-11 ¾ | 221 | 4.48 | Rd 1, Pk 22
1.03 | RB3 | TreVeyon Henderson | NE Patriots | 5-10 ⅛ | 202 | 4.43 | Rd 2, Pk 6
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
1.04 | WR1* | Travis Hunter | JAC Jaguars | 6-0 ⅜ | 188 | – | Rd 1, Pk 2
1.05 | WR2 | Tetairoa McMillan | CAR Panthers | 6-4 ⅛ | 219 | – | Rd 1, Pk 8
1.06 | RB4 | Quinshon Judkins | CLE Browns | 5-11 ⅝ | 221 | 4.48 | Rd 2, Pk 4
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
1.07 | RB5 | R.J. Harvey, Jr. | DEN Broncos | 5-8 | 205 | 4.40 | Rd 2, Pk 28
1.08 | RB6 | Kaleb Johnson | PIT Steelers | 6-1 | 224 | 4.57 | Rd 3, Pk 19
1.09 | TE1 | Colston Loveland | CHI Bears | 6-5 ¾ | 248 | – | Rd 1, Pk 10
1.10 | WR3 | Emeka Egbuka | TB Bucs | 6-0 ⅞ | 202 | 4.48 (Pro Day) | Rd 1, Pk 19
1.11 | TE2 | Tyler Warren | IND Colts | 6-5 ½ | 256 | – | Rd 1, Pk 14
1.12 | WR4 | Matthew Golden | GB Packers | 5-11 | 191 | 4.29 | Rd 1, Pk 23
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~

ROUND TWO

2.01 | WR5 | Luther Burden III | CHI Bears | 6-0 | 206 | 4.41 | Rd 2, Pk 7
2.02 | WR6 | Jayden Higgins | HOU Texans | 6-4 ⅛ | 214 | 4.47 | Rd 2, Pk 2
2.03 | WR7 | Tre Harris | LA Chargers | 6-2 ⅜ | 205 | 4.54 | Rd 2, Pk 23
2.04 | WR8 | Kyle Williams | NE Patriots | 5-10 ⅝ | 190 | 4.40 | Rd 3, Pk 5
2.05 | WR9 | Jack Bech | LV Raiders | 6-1 ¼ | 214 | – | Rd 2, Pk 26
2.06 | TE3 | Mason Taylor | NY Jets | 6-5 ⅛ | 251 | 4.65 (Pro Day) | Rd 2, Pk 10
2.07 | RB7 | Cameron Skattebo | NY Giants | 5-9 ½ | 219 | 4.57 (Pro Day) | Rd 4, Pk 3
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
2.08 | QB1 | Cam Ward | TEN Titans | 6-2 | 223 | – | Rd 1, Pk 1
2.09 | WR10 | Jaylin Noel | HOU Texans | 5-10 ¼ | 194 | 4.39 | Rd 3, Pk 15
2.10 | TE4 | Terrance Ferguson | LA Rams | 6-5 ⅜ | 247 | 4.63 | Rd 2, Pk 14
2.11 | TE5 | Elijah Arroyo | SEA Seahawks | 6-5 ⅛ | 250 | 4.62 (Pro Day) | Rd 2, Pk 18
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
2.12 | RB8 | Bhayshul Tuten | JAC Jaguars| 5-9 ¼ | 200 | 4.32 | Rd 4, Pk 2

Good stuff.
Curious - in IDP, assuming standard scoring, where do you put the top IDPs?
Off hand I’m thinking maybe Campbell 2.08 just ahead of Ward?

Thank you. I have been playing fantasy football for over 35 years, but never dabbled in IDP. I suspect it would depend on your scoring rules, but it seems like Abdul Carter would sit atop IDP rankings.

 

[socrates]

That second round looks bleak to me.

The lustre of the second round has certainly been tarnished a bit, but I still think there is some value to be had.

 

[socrates]

That second round looks bleak to me.

Yeah, Burden and Skattebo are the only ones in that tier I'd be happy to throw an early 2nd round pick at today. Not exactly homeruns. Bears 3rd WR on a team with 2TEs and a 4th round RB, but I like the prospects enough to take a swing. I'm confident that the cream will rise to the top from the pool of Day 3 RBs, Day 2 TEs and WRs to fill out most if not all of the 2nd round with coveted picks by August.

The bounty of riches to be had deep into round 3 of rookie drafts was way overplayed by many of the talking heads. I could still see some values getting there factoring in irrational leaguemates.

I really wanted to rank Skattebo higher, but the hit rate of Round 4 RBs is abysmal. I still think there are some potential values even into Round 3, but the rich depth touted pre-draft has been severely diminished.

 

[socrates]

POST NFL DRAFT
Dynasty Rookie Rankings (Single QB, PPR, No TE Premium)

I would venture that you hit on as many of your pre-draft predictions as anyone that was willing to go out on the limb and project NFL draft capital pre-draft. Nice work!

Thank you, my friend. I would consider it an exercise in Shark Pool groupthink, as the input of others factored heavily into the rankings.

 

[Gatorade]

No way I would draft Kylie Williams that high. I just don't see that kind of production coming out of NE for any WR prospect.
Other than that it looks good.

 

[socrates]

I like Henderson and Harvey's landing spots, I like that Harvey is a bit thicker, and I can get him alter, but he is also old, and didn't do anything for 4 years in college. That's nerve-wracking.

I am sure some fantasy managers are down on Henderson's landing spot, but I believe he will excel in NE. We saw him thrive in a shared role with Judkins last season, and that could continue in NE with Stevenson.

Harvey's age is definitely a concern, but I try not to look too far ahead. Harvey projects as an every-down back in a Sean Payton offense. Count me in.

I feel like Hunter over TMac is a bet on greatness, and a good call.

There is an obvious risk with Hunter, but so far, I am hearing all of the right things coming out of Jacksonville. I prefer Jacksonville to Cleveland, so this was a win for Hunter.

Kaleb in PIT is probably going to be a fine value, but not the pick I make. He looks like the less interesting half of a RBBC, and I don't take those guys. And he doesn't look as good as Najee did coming out.

Najee (the draftee) was arguably a better receiving version of Kaleb Johnson, but Najee never lived up to expectations. It will be interesting to see how far KJ falls in rookie drafts. He fell further in the NFL Draft than I expected.

Think I have Tyler Warren higher than most. I may change my mind. I thought Warren looks smoother and more dangerous on the field. I like the QB in CHI, but I there's a lot of young mouths to feed there.

My concern is less about Tyler Warren than the Colts. I believe in Shane Steichen, but unless AR develops, this offense will continue to be near the bottom in passing offense. I would still be excited to land Warren.

Egbuka might be a really great value. Might be a guy catching 90 balls a year, just not this year. I haven't thought about it much, but I am picking 7, and if I had to guess, it'd be Warren/Egbuka as a decision.

You are spot on. I love the talent AND the team. In the short-term, he may have to suffer through a limited role. Egbuka is best deployed out of the slot, but Godwin also thrives in the slot and just signed a new contract.

I maybe take a swing on Burden over Golden. Pretty sure I would. How many fantasy owners can feel confident about how the GB target situation could break down? I am already exposed to this heartburn already (I have Reed/Doubs/Wicks in various teams), and by the time of most rookie drafts, we won't be able to get ANY clarity. I think it is just as likely that Doubs and Reed take a step forward.

Golden is an upgrade over Christian Watson, but he does not look like a WR1 to me. This is a team loaded with WR2s, and that is a bit concerning.

So I agree with that big break right there, I just swap those two guys. It's really, really really weird to me that DJ Moore's lack of enthusiasm was seen as a reason they took Burden, a guy people have vocally questioned his work ethic. But he is a unique player, and I'm a believer in Caleb and the coach. He could also be completely buried, if Loveland is special, and Odunze is as well.

I am willing to bet on Burden's talent; put him in a young, exciting offense run by Ben Johnson -- count me in. There are many mouths to feed, but I cannot drop him too far.

I probably have Kyle Williams at the top of the next tier, he doesn't have Nico, McConkey and Bowers across from him. Someone will take Skattebo before I do, I am not even thinking about him. With Kupp gone, I am going to be looking HARD at the athletic TE the Rams took.

I probably did not rank Kyle Williams high enough. This is a great fit for him in NE.

It is disappointing that Skattebo fell out of Day 2, and while I like Tyrone Tracy, he is not cemented in as a starter. I had to drop Skattebo to the bottom of this tier, and like you said, someone else will probably take Skattebo higher than I would.

I am definitely in on Terrance Ferguson. He is the best TE prospect the Rams have had under McVay.

 

[socrates]

No way I would draft Kylie Williams that high. I just don't see that kind of production coming out of NE for any WR prospect.
Other than that it looks good.

Interesting. This represents a pretty big jump for Kyle Williams in my rankings, but in truth, I considered him even higher. I believe he has a chance to be the WR1 in New England with a young developing QB. I was higher than the consensus on Kyle Williams for months, but he has had a meteoric rise late.

 

[-OZ-]

No way I would draft Kylie Williams that high. I just don't see that kind of production coming out of NE for any WR prospect.
Other than that it looks good.

Interesting. This represents a pretty big jump for Kyle Williams in my rankings, but in truth, I considered him even higher. I believe he has a chance to be the WR1 in New England with a young developing QB. I was higher than the consensus on Kyle Williams for months, but he has had a meteoric rise late.

I was about to ask @Gatorade his reasoning. It seems to be a great fit with a team on the rise, with a QB who needs a playmaker badly.

 

[Gatorade]

No way I would draft Kylie Williams that high. I just don't see that kind of production coming out of NE for any WR prospect.
Other than that it looks good.

Interesting. This represents a pretty big jump for Kyle Williams in my rankings, but in truth, I considered him even higher. I believe he has a chance to be the WR1 in New England with a young developing QB. I was higher than the consensus on Kyle Williams for months, but he has had a meteoric rise late.

I was about to ask @Gatorade his reasoning. It seems to be a great fit with a team on the rise, with a QB who needs a playmaker badly.

I do not watch any college football basically. From everything I have read before the draft, he might be a good WR2 on the right team. Yes, there is no competition for him in NE, but there is also no one else to draw coverage away from him. I think the WR crew in NE will be similar to what it has been in Green Bay the last couple of years. Every week someone different will emerge. Plus, with the addition of Henderson, they will be more of a running team and Henderson will get a lot of receptions out of the backfield.

 

[socrates]

No way I would draft Kylie Williams that high. I just don't see that kind of production coming out of NE for any WR prospect.
Other than that it looks good.

Interesting. This represents a pretty big jump for Kyle Williams in my rankings, but in truth, I considered him even higher. I believe he has a chance to be the WR1 in New England with a young developing QB. I was higher than the consensus on Kyle Williams for months, but he has had a meteoric rise late.

I was about to ask @Gatorade his reasoning. It seems to be a great fit with a team on the rise, with a QB who needs a playmaker badly.

I do not watch any college football basically. From everything I have read before the draft, he might be a good WR2 on the right team. Yes, there is no competition for him in NE, but there is also no one else to draw coverage away from him. I think the WR crew in NE will be similar to what it has been in Green Bay the last couple of years. Every week someone different will emerge. Plus, with the addition of Henderson, they will be more of a running team and Henderson will get a lot of receptions out of the backfield.

Fair points. Kyle Williams has been a late riser in the draft process, but he should not be overlooked. Would he be better served as the WR2 in a system? Maybe. However, I love his opportunity. Other receivers I have in that same tier, Higgins, Harris, and Bech, all face their own challenges, so I think he fits in this tier, and his ceiling potential as a WR1 is arguably higher than the others. Once I get out of the first round of rookie drafts, I tend to prioritize ceiling.

Williams led Washington State with 70 catches for 1,198 yards and 14 touchdowns, and he averaged 17.1 yards-per-catch last season. I really took notice of Williams when he was reportedly uncoverable in Senior Bowl practices. He was the fastest receiver at the Senior Bowl (reportedly over 22 mph), he is an excellent route runner, and he is dynamic after the catch.

New England does not have a clear WR1. Stefon Diggs was signed, but he will turn 32 this season, he is coming off an ACL tear, and he looks like a shadow of his former self. They also have 2024 draft picks Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker. Polk was a Round 2 pick last season, but he managed only 12 receptions for 87 yards and 2 TDs during his rookie campaign. Javon Baker was even worse. Was it the team? Perhaps. Gone is Mayo, and Vrabel takes the reigns.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Egbuka, Golden, and Burden going to WR rich teams is incredibly annoying

 

[MAC_32]

Egbuka, Golden, and Burden going to WR rich teams is incredibly annoying

So was JSN.

Look how that turned out.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Egbuka, Golden, and Burden going to WR rich teams is incredibly annoying

So was JSN.

Look how that turned out.

That’s true

 

[SayWhat?]

Egbuka, Golden, and Burden going to WR rich teams is incredibly annoying

One of these does not fit in the camp of “going to a WR rich team” scenario, does it?

 

[KellysHeroes]

Egbuka, Golden, and Burden going to WR rich teams is incredibly annoying

unless I'm in a rebuild and can be patient, I'm valuing the top 4 or 5 RBs over this tier of WRs.

 

[socrates]

ROUND THREE

3.01 | RB9 | Dylan Sampson | CLE Browns | 5-8 ⅛ | 200 | 4.42 (Pro Day) | Rd 4, Pk 24
3.02 | RB10 | Trevor Etienne | CAR Panthers | 5-8 ¾ | 198 | 4.42 | Rd 4, Pk 12
3.03 | WR11 | Jalen Royals | KC Chiefs | 6-0 | 205 | 4.42 | Rd 4, Pk 31
3.04 | WR12 | Elic Ayomanor | TEN Titans | 6-1 ¾ | 206 | 4.44 | Rd 4, Pk 34
3.05 | WR13 | Tai Felton | MIN Vikings | 6-1 ⅛ | 183 | 4.37 | Rd 3, Pk 38
3.06 | TE6 | Harold Fannin, Jr. | CLE Browns | 6-3 ¼ | 241 | 4.72 | Rd 3, Pk 3
3.07 | WR14 | Savion Williams | GB Packers | 6-3 ⅞ | 222 | 4.48 | Rd 3, Pk 23
3.08 | RB11 | Devin Neal | NO Saints | 5-11 ⅛ | 213 | 4.58 | Rd 6, Pk 8
3.09 | WR15 | Tory Horton | SEA Seahawks | 6-2 ½ | 196 | 4.41 | Rd 5, Pk 30
3.10 | WR16 | Chimere Dike | TEN Titans | 6-1 | 196 | 4.34 | Rd 4, Pk 1
3.11 | QB2 | Jalen Milroe | SEA Seahawks | 6-1 ⅞ | 217 | 4.37 (Pro Day) | Rd 3, Pk 28
3.12 | QB3 | Jaxson Dart | NY Giants | 6-2 ¼ | 223 | – | Rd 1, Pk 25

ROUND FOUR

4.01 | RB12 | Jarquez Hunter | LA Rams | 5-9 ⅜ | 204 | 4.44 | Rd 4, Pk 15
4.02 | WR17 | Pat Bryant | DEN Broncos | 6-2 | 204 | 4.61 | Rd 3, Pk 10
4.03 | TE7 | Gunnar Helm | TEN Titans | 6-5 | 241 | 4.84 | Rd 4, Pk 18
4.04 | WR18 | Isaac TeSlaa | DET Lions | 6-3 ⅝ | 214 | 4.43 | Rd 3, Pk 6
4.05 | RB13 | Jaydon Blue | DAL Cowboys | 5-9 | 196 | 4.38 | Rd 5, Pk 12
4.06 | RB14 | DJ Giddens | IND Colts | 6-0 ¼ | 212 lbs | 4.43 | Rd 5, Pk 14
4.07 | RB15 | Jordan James | SF 49ers | 5-9 ½ | 205 | 4.55 | Rd 5, Pk 9
4.08 | RB16 | Brashard Smith | KC Chiefs | 5-9 ⅞| 194 | 4.39 | Rd 7, Pk 12
4.09 | RB17 | Damien Martinez | SEA Seahawks | 5-11 ⅝ | 217 | 4.51 | Rd 7, Pk 7
4.10 | RB18 | Tahj Brooks | CIN Bengals | 5-9 ¼ | 214 | 4.52 | Rd 6, Pk 17
4.11 | TE8 | Oronde Gadsden II | LA Chargers | 6-4 ⅝ | 243 | – | Rd 5, Pk 29
4.12 | RB19 | Ollie Gordon II | MIA Dolphins | 6-1 ⅜ | 226 lbs | 4.61 | Rd 6, Pk 3

 

[Gatorade]

Shocking how far Ollie Gordon has fallen. This time last year people were saying he would be one of the top RBs this year.

 

[socrates]

Shocking how far Ollie Gordon has fallen. This time last year people were saying he would be one of the top RBs this year.

You are so right. Gordon had a season in 2023 like Skattebo had in 2024, winning the Doak Walker Award, before being arrested for DUI and then having a disappointing season. Timing is everything. Gordon is a tremendous athlete with great size for the position. The Dolphins brought in Alexander Mattison, but it would be no surprise if Gordon edged out Mattison to be the power back in the offense, and he is a solid receiver out of the backfield. We may all be sleeping on him.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Shocking how far Ollie Gordon has fallen. This time last year people were saying he would be one of the top RBs this year.

Gordon had a season in 2023 like Skattebo had in 2024, and he won the Doak Walker Award, before being arrested for DUI and then having a disappointing season. Timing is everything. Gordon is a tremendous athlete and has great size for the position. The Dolphins brought in Alexander Mattison, but it would be no surprise if Gordon edged out Mattison to be the power back in the offense, and he is a solid receiver out of the backfield. We may all be sleeping on him.

Heck, Gordon got himself drafted with the D-dub. I'll be keeping an eye out for Raheim Sanders for any chance of #2 material on the Chargers in '26, along with Donny Edwards on the Jets (gulp). This class owed us more RB studs getting to the finish line. I'm keeping the light on!

 

[socrates]

Shocking how far Ollie Gordon has fallen. This time last year people were saying he would be one of the top RBs this year.

Gordon had a season in 2023 like Skattebo had in 2024, and he won the Doak Walker Award, before being arrested for DUI and then having a disappointing season. Timing is everything. Gordon is a tremendous athlete and has great size for the position. The Dolphins brought in Alexander Mattison, but it would be no surprise if Gordon edged out Mattison to be the power back in the offense, and he is a solid receiver out of the backfield. We may all be sleeping on him.

Heck, Gordon got himself drafted with the D-dub. I'll be keeping an eye out for Raheim Sanders for any chance of #2 material on the Chargers in '26, along with Donny Edwards on the Jets (gulp). This class owed us more RB studs getting to the finish line. I'm keeping the light on!

No doubt. This is a nice RB class, but imagine what it could have been! So many Devy darlings who fell off the map.

 

[socrates]

Egbuka, Golden, and Burden going to WR rich teams is incredibly annoying

It definitely presents a challenge for these draftees, but they all benefit from being drafted to emerging offenses.

Egbuka may have to cut his teeth learning from veterans Godwin and Evans, but they are both aging stars, so I won't ding Egbuka too much here. The crowded receiver room should be more of a short-term obstacle. Egbuka is no stranger to working alongside other very talented receivers, and I believe he will fit well in this offense.

Burden finds himself in an offense on the rise. Despite the competition for touches, I think this could be a win for Burden. It will require some patience, however. I think the competition may bring out the best in Burden, and if he proves he is up to the challenge, the situation will work itself out in time.

Golden finds himself in an offense crowded with WR2s. GB is ripe for a WR1 talent; I just don't know that Golden fits the bill. He is an upgrade over Watson, and he is paired with a young, talented QB. I actually love this opportunity for Golden, and his ceiling is very high. Can he seize it? We shall see. This situation is somewhat similar to what Kyle Williams faces in New England.

 

[pinkstapler]

Egbuka, Golden, and Burden going to WR rich teams is incredibly annoying

It definitely presents a challenge for these draftees, but they all benefit from being drafted to emerging offenses.

Egbuka may have to cut his teeth learning from veterans Godwin and Evans, but they are both aging stars, so I won't ding Egbuka too much here. The crowded receiver room should be more of a short-term obstacle. Egbuka is no stranger to working alongside other very talented receivers, and I believe he will fit well in this offense.

Burden finds himself in an offense on the rise. Despite the competition for touches, I think this could be a win for Burden. It will require some patience, however. I think the competition may bring out the best in Burden, and if he proves he is up to the challenge, the situation will work itself out in time.

Golden finds himself in an offense crowded with WR2s. GB is ripe for a WR1 talent; I just don't know that Golden fits the bill. He is an upgrade over Watson, and he is paired with a young, talented QB. I actually love this opportunity for Golden, and his ceiling is very high. Can he seize it? We shall see. This situation is somewhat similar to what Kyle Williams faces in New England.

Ahhh... I love to be back into full blown optimism now for the next few months lol. It's seriously my favorite time of the season. Agree with all three of these takes.

And as for Kyle Williams, I think I just missed on him is what I've settled on. He was screaming up draft boards of fantasy analysts and NFL analysts alike prior to the draft, wound up with solid draft capital, and landed in one of my favorite projected WR landing spots. When a bunch of fantasy guys I listen to and respect, including Harmon, are touting this guys abilities... rather than hold onto my previous beliefs, I'll lean towards the more logical conclusion of "I may have been wrong on this guy".

While I've heard Harmon liken him to early career Steff Digs, I know that comp might be too bombastic for people to swallow whole. I'd say once I caught up on him he reminded me a lot of Jayden Reed. Reed hasn't exactly boomed, but his metrics in the NFL are excellent for what he's done with the opportunities given. Williams won't be walking into a room with 4 other receivers who all have solid draft capital either. I think he'll be a target for me by the early to mid second round, be a toss up between him and Bech for me there at the top of that next tier of WRs. Even if they dip back into the well and get a true WR1 next year, I'll be happy to have a solid young WR linked with a solid young QB on what looks like a rising offense.

 

[socrates]

Egbuka, Golden, and Burden going to WR rich teams is incredibly annoying

It definitely presents a challenge for these draftees, but they all benefit from being drafted to emerging offenses.

Egbuka may have to cut his teeth learning from veterans Godwin and Evans, but they are both aging stars, so I won't ding Egbuka too much here. The crowded receiver room should be more of a short-term obstacle. Egbuka is no stranger to working alongside other very talented receivers, and I believe he will fit well in this offense.

Burden finds himself in an offense on the rise. Despite the competition for touches, I think this could be a win for Burden. It will require some patience, however. I think the competition may bring out the best in Burden, and if he proves he is up to the challenge, the situation will work itself out in time.

Golden finds himself in an offense crowded with WR2s. GB is ripe for a WR1 talent; I just don't know that Golden fits the bill. He is an upgrade over Watson, and he is paired with a young, talented QB. I actually love this opportunity for Golden, and his ceiling is very high. Can he seize it? We shall see. This situation is somewhat similar to what Kyle Williams faces in New England.

Ahhh... I love to be back into full blown optimism now for the next few months lol. It's seriously my favorite time of the season. Agree with all three of these takes.

And as for Kyle Williams, I think I just missed on him is what I've settled on. He was screaming up draft boards of fantasy analysts and NFL analysts alike prior to the draft, wound up with solid draft capital, and landed in one of my favorite projected WR landing spots. When a bunch of fantasy guys I listen to and respect, including Harmon, are touting this guys abilities... rather than hold onto my previous beliefs, I'll lean towards the more logical conclusion of "I may have been wrong on this guy".

While I've heard Harmon liken him to early career Steff Digs, I know that comp might be too bombastic for people to swallow whole. I'd say once I caught up on him he reminded me a lot of Jayden Reed. Reed hasn't exactly boomed, but his metrics in the NFL are excellent for what he's done with the opportunities given. Williams won't be walking into a room with 4 other receivers who all have solid draft capital either. I think he'll be a target for me by the early to mid second round, be a toss up between him and Bech for me there at the top of that next tier of WRs. Even if they dip back into the well and get a true WR1 next year, I'll be happy to have a solid young WR linked with a solid young QB on what looks like a rising offense.

That is where I have Williams, as well. I have him one spot ahead of Bech, just based on Williams' ceiling potential, and I was tempted to rank him even higher. Perhaps Williams is not going to seize the WR1 role long term, but that still leaves some room for production, like you say. If he emerges as the WR1, we will all wonder why we did not rank him in Round 1.

And don't even get me started on Jayden Reed lol. He is being misused in Green Bay!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

POST NFL DRAFT
Dynasty Rookie Rankings (Single QB, PPR, No TE Premium)

ROUND ONE

1.01 | RB1 | Ashton Jeanty | LV Raiders | 5-8 ½ | 211 | – | Rd 1, Pk 6
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
1.02 | RB2 | Omarion Hampton | LA Chargers | 5-11 ¾ | 221 | 4.48 | Rd 1, Pk 22
1.03 | RB3 | TreVeyon Henderson | NE Patriots | 5-10 ⅛ | 202 | 4.43 | Rd 2, Pk 6
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
1.04 | WR1* | Travis Hunter | JAC Jaguars | 6-0 ⅜ | 188 | – | Rd 1, Pk 2
1.05 | WR2 | Tetairoa McMillan | CAR Panthers | 6-4 ⅛ | 219 | – | Rd 1, Pk 8
1.06 | RB4 | Quinshon Judkins | CLE Browns | 5-11 ⅝ | 221 | 4.48 | Rd 2, Pk 4
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
1.07 | RB5 | R.J. Harvey, Jr. | DEN Broncos | 5-8 | 205 | 4.40 | Rd 2, Pk 28
1.08 | RB6 | Kaleb Johnson | PIT Steelers | 6-1 | 224 | 4.57 | Rd 3, Pk 19
1.09 | TE1 | Colston Loveland | CHI Bears | 6-5 ¾ | 248 | – | Rd 1, Pk 10
1.10 | WR3 | Emeka Egbuka | TB Bucs | 6-0 ⅞ | 202 | 4.48 (Pro Day) | Rd 1, Pk 19
1.11 | TE2 | Tyler Warren | IND Colts | 6-5 ½ | 256 | – | Rd 1, Pk 14
1.12 | WR4 | Matthew Golden | GB Packers | 5-11 | 191 | 4.29 | Rd 1, Pk 23
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~

ROUND TWO

2.01 | WR5 | Luther Burden III | CHI Bears | 6-0 | 206 | 4.41 | Rd 2, Pk 7
2.02 | WR6 | Jayden Higgins | HOU Texans | 6-4 ⅛ | 214 | 4.47 | Rd 2, Pk 2
2.03 | WR7 | Tre Harris | LA Chargers | 6-2 ⅜ | 205 | 4.54 | Rd 2, Pk 23
2.04 | WR8 | Kyle Williams | NE Patriots | 5-10 ⅝ | 190 | 4.40 | Rd 3, Pk 5
2.05 | WR9 | Jack Bech | LV Raiders | 6-1 ¼ | 214 | – | Rd 2, Pk 26
2.06 | TE3 | Mason Taylor | NY Jets | 6-5 ⅛ | 251 | 4.65 (Pro Day) | Rd 2, Pk 10
2.07 | RB7 | Cameron Skattebo | NY Giants | 5-9 ½ | 219 | 4.57 (Pro Day) | Rd 4, Pk 3
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
2.08 | QB1 | Cam Ward | TEN Titans | 6-2 | 223 | – | Rd 1, Pk 1
2.09 | WR10 | Jaylin Noel | HOU Texans | 5-10 ¼ | 194 | 4.39 | Rd 3, Pk 15
2.10 | TE4 | Terrance Ferguson | LA Rams | 6-5 ⅜ | 247 | 4.63 | Rd 2, Pk 14
2.11 | TE5 | Elijah Arroyo | SEA Seahawks | 6-5 ⅛ | 250 | 4.62 (Pro Day) | Rd 2, Pk 18
2.12 | RB8 | Bhayshul Tuten | JAC Jaguars| 5-9 ¼ | 200 | 4.32 | Rd 4, Pk 2
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~

Thanks for putting yourself out there and starting this back in January
I'm honestly just taking it in. This will be my first time competing in a Dynasty League this year in well over a decade, I tend to focus solely on Redraft
I like Burden in Chicago a. lot more than others, 2nd Rd looks nice if he falls there.

Jeanty, Hampton, Harvey, Johnson all seem like quicker rewards over some of the other 1st Rd names.
Golden ahead of Burden? I like his QB a little more but not by leaps and bounds, didn't like what I saw last season after he got paid.
Crowded WR room at the moment but I see Green Bay trading at least one of their current WRs, Watson needs to be moved along while he still has a little shine
I think teams would be interested in Watson more so than Doubs but he's also likely gonna need a change of scenery

 

[socrates]

POST NFL DRAFT
Dynasty Rookie Rankings (Single QB, PPR, No TE Premium)

ROUND ONE

1.01 | RB1 | Ashton Jeanty | LV Raiders | 5-8 ½ | 211 | – | Rd 1, Pk 6
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
1.02 | RB2 | Omarion Hampton | LA Chargers | 5-11 ¾ | 221 | 4.48 | Rd 1, Pk 22
1.03 | RB3 | TreVeyon Henderson | NE Patriots | 5-10 ⅛ | 202 | 4.43 | Rd 2, Pk 6
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
1.04 | WR1* | Travis Hunter | JAC Jaguars | 6-0 ⅜ | 188 | – | Rd 1, Pk 2
1.05 | WR2 | Tetairoa McMillan | CAR Panthers | 6-4 ⅛ | 219 | – | Rd 1, Pk 8
1.06 | RB4 | Quinshon Judkins | CLE Browns | 5-11 ⅝ | 221 | 4.48 | Rd 2, Pk 4
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
1.07 | RB5 | R.J. Harvey, Jr. | DEN Broncos | 5-8 | 205 | 4.40 | Rd 2, Pk 28
1.08 | RB6 | Kaleb Johnson | PIT Steelers | 6-1 | 224 | 4.57 | Rd 3, Pk 19
1.09 | TE1 | Colston Loveland | CHI Bears | 6-5 ¾ | 248 | – | Rd 1, Pk 10
1.10 | WR3 | Emeka Egbuka | TB Bucs | 6-0 ⅞ | 202 | 4.48 (Pro Day) | Rd 1, Pk 19
1.11 | TE2 | Tyler Warren | IND Colts | 6-5 ½ | 256 | – | Rd 1, Pk 14
1.12 | WR4 | Matthew Golden | GB Packers | 5-11 | 191 | 4.29 | Rd 1, Pk 23
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~

ROUND TWO

2.01 | WR5 | Luther Burden III | CHI Bears | 6-0 | 206 | 4.41 | Rd 2, Pk 7
2.02 | WR6 | Jayden Higgins | HOU Texans | 6-4 ⅛ | 214 | 4.47 | Rd 2, Pk 2
2.03 | WR7 | Tre Harris | LA Chargers | 6-2 ⅜ | 205 | 4.54 | Rd 2, Pk 23
2.04 | WR8 | Kyle Williams | NE Patriots | 5-10 ⅝ | 190 | 4.40 | Rd 3, Pk 5
2.05 | WR9 | Jack Bech | LV Raiders | 6-1 ¼ | 214 | – | Rd 2, Pk 26
2.06 | TE3 | Mason Taylor | NY Jets | 6-5 ⅛ | 251 | 4.65 (Pro Day) | Rd 2, Pk 10
2.07 | RB7 | Cameron Skattebo | NY Giants | 5-9 ½ | 219 | 4.57 (Pro Day) | Rd 4, Pk 3
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~
2.08 | QB1 | Cam Ward | TEN Titans | 6-2 | 223 | – | Rd 1, Pk 1
2.09 | WR10 | Jaylin Noel | HOU Texans | 5-10 ¼ | 194 | 4.39 | Rd 3, Pk 15
2.10 | TE4 | Terrance Ferguson | LA Rams | 6-5 ⅜ | 247 | 4.63 | Rd 2, Pk 14
2.11 | TE5 | Elijah Arroyo | SEA Seahawks | 6-5 ⅛ | 250 | 4.62 (Pro Day) | Rd 2, Pk 18
2.12 | RB8 | Bhayshul Tuten | JAC Jaguars| 5-9 ¼ | 200 | 4.32 | Rd 4, Pk 2
~~~~~~ Tier Break ~~~~~~

Thanks for putting yourself out there and starting this back in January
I'm honestly just taking it in. This will be my first time competing in a Dynasty League this year in well over a decade, I tend to focus solely on Redraft
I like Burden in Chicago a. lot more than others, 2nd Rd looks nice if he falls there.

Jeanty, Hampton, Harvey, Johnson all seem like quicker rewards over some of the other 1st Rd names.
Golden ahead of Burden? I like his QB a little more but not by leaps and bounds, didn't like what I saw last season after he got paid.
Crowded WR room at the moment but I see Green Bay trading at least one of their current WRs, Watson needs to be moved along while he still has a little shine
I think teams would be interested in Watson more so than Doubs but he's also likely gonna need a change of scenery

Thanks, MoP. I agree with your assessment of the Packers' situation.

I may have dinged Burden a bit too much in my rankings for the crowded WR room and lower draft capital. Prior to the NFL Draft, Burden was clearly ahead of Golden. I gave the nod here to Golden based on his immediate potential ceiling at Green Bay (this is the opportunity I wish Burden was presented with), but if I were on the clock, I might have a hard time drafting Golden ahead of Burden. On reflection, I would at least include Burden in the same tier as Egbuka and Golden, even if he did not garner Round One Capital. I probably let my disappointment affect my rankings there. (I edited my rankings to change the tier break, but left Golden as my 1.12 and Burden as my 2.01)

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Agree on Burden vs Golden. How I viewed the prospects coming in, compared to the actual draft capital and immediate opportunity. I'm still holding Burden ahead for now, but that's going to be a very spicy take to execute on the clock.

Other draft capital dilemmas:

Had Warren just ahead of Loveland back-to-back coming in. Loveland goes 10, bump him ahead as the more pure receiving TE, despite Kmet. Burden selection felt like a tipping point to bump Warren back ahead of Loveland.

Didn't count on Harvey going that high. I didn't have him in the same tier as Kaleb Johnson coming in. Still have Kaleb Johnson just ahead, but I'm thinking I'll probably have to come home to the 2nd round RB once we get a taste of what Payton has planned.

I know it's only two picks, but I begrudgingly gave the nod to Judkins over Henderson. Didn't feel great about it and I'm sure I would have switched back regardless, but the Sampson selection in round 4 gave me the excuse I needed to confidently switch back to Henderson.

I'm fairly certain that the logical side of me will not allow me to pass up on a late 1st round RB, but Henderson will be screaming at me to give him the bump ahead of Hampton. Hard to tune out a number of analysts I respect being so down on Hampton. Needless to say, I more or less have Hampton, Henderson, Judkins in the same tier, rather I should or not.

At this point, I'm also having a hard time giving the 2nd round TEs the edge ahead of Fannin. Not really in the market, so haven't given a ton of thought or research to any of these guys. Just seemed like there was slightly more optimism for Fannin's potential coming in based on what I was listening to.

 

[IHEARTFF]

3.01 | RB9 | Dylan Sampson | CLE Browns | 5-8 ⅛ | 200 | 4.42 (Pro Day) | Rd 4, Pk 24
3.02 | RB10 | Trevor Etienne | CAR Panthers | 5-8 ¾ | 198 | 4.42 | Rd 4, Pk 12

3.08 | RB11 | Devin Neal | NO Saints | 5-11 ⅛ | 213 | 4.58 | Rd 6, Pk 8

4.01 | RB12 | Jarquez Hunter | LA Rams | 5-9 ⅜ | 204 | 4.44 | Rd 4, Pk 15

4.05 | RB13 | Jaydon Blue | DAL Cowboys | 5-9 | 196 | 4.38 | Rd 5, Pk 12
4.06 | RB14 | DJ Giddens | IND Colts | 6-0 ¼ | 212 lbs | 4.43 | Rd 5, Pk 14
4.07 | RB15 | Jordan James | SF 49ers | 5-9 ½ | 205 | 4.55 | Rd 5, Pk 9
4.08 | RB16 | Brashard Smith | KC Chiefs | 5-9 ⅞| 194 | 4.39 | Rd 7, Pk 12
4.09 | RB17 | Damien Martinez | SEA Seahawks | 5-11 ⅝ | 217 | 4.51 | Rd 7, Pk 7
4.10 | RB18 | Tahj Brooks | CIN Bengals | 5-9 ¼ | 214 | 4.52 | Rd 6, Pk 17
4.12 | RB19 | Ollie Gordon II | MIA Dolphins | 6-1 ⅜ | 226 lbs | 4.61 | Rd 6, Pk 3

RB roulette here trying to sort out who will have standalone value and who will win the injury lottery

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

3.01 | RB9 | Dylan Sampson | CLE Browns | 5-8 ⅛ | 200 | 4.42 (Pro Day) | Rd 4, Pk 24
3.02 | RB10 | Trevor Etienne | CAR Panthers | 5-8 ¾ | 198 | 4.42 | Rd 4, Pk 12

3.08 | RB11 | Devin Neal | NO Saints | 5-11 ⅛ | 213 | 4.58 | Rd 6, Pk 8

4.01 | RB12 | Jarquez Hunter | LA Rams | 5-9 ⅜ | 204 | 4.44 | Rd 4, Pk 15

4.05 | RB13 | Jaydon Blue | DAL Cowboys | 5-9 | 196 | 4.38 | Rd 5, Pk 12
4.06 | RB14 | DJ Giddens | IND Colts | 6-0 ¼ | 212 lbs | 4.43 | Rd 5, Pk 14
4.07 | RB15 | Jordan James | SF 49ers | 5-9 ½ | 205 | 4.55 | Rd 5, Pk 9
4.08 | RB16 | Brashard Smith | KC Chiefs | 5-9 ⅞| 194 | 4.39 | Rd 7, Pk 12
4.09 | RB17 | Damien Martinez | SEA Seahawks | 5-11 ⅝ | 217 | 4.51 | Rd 7, Pk 7
4.10 | RB18 | Tahj Brooks | CIN Bengals | 5-9 ¼ | 214 | 4.52 | Rd 6, Pk 17
4.12 | RB19 | Ollie Gordon II | MIA Dolphins | 6-1 ⅜ | 226 lbs | 4.61 | Rd 6, Pk 3

RB roulette here trying to sort out who will have standalone value and who will win the injury lottery

I've got Tuten (jax), Woody Marks (hou), Croskey-Merritt (was), and Monangai (chi) in this gaggle as well.

 

[socrates]

3.01 | RB9 | Dylan Sampson | CLE Browns | 5-8 ⅛ | 200 | 4.42 (Pro Day) | Rd 4, Pk 24
3.02 | RB10 | Trevor Etienne | CAR Panthers | 5-8 ¾ | 198 | 4.42 | Rd 4, Pk 12

3.08 | RB11 | Devin Neal | NO Saints | 5-11 ⅛ | 213 | 4.58 | Rd 6, Pk 8

4.01 | RB12 | Jarquez Hunter | LA Rams | 5-9 ⅜ | 204 | 4.44 | Rd 4, Pk 15

4.05 | RB13 | Jaydon Blue | DAL Cowboys | 5-9 | 196 | 4.38 | Rd 5, Pk 12
4.06 | RB14 | DJ Giddens | IND Colts | 6-0 ¼ | 212 lbs | 4.43 | Rd 5, Pk 14
4.07 | RB15 | Jordan James | SF 49ers | 5-9 ½ | 205 | 4.55 | Rd 5, Pk 9
4.08 | RB16 | Brashard Smith | KC Chiefs | 5-9 ⅞| 194 | 4.39 | Rd 7, Pk 12
4.09 | RB17 | Damien Martinez | SEA Seahawks | 5-11 ⅝ | 217 | 4.51 | Rd 7, Pk 7
4.10 | RB18 | Tahj Brooks | CIN Bengals | 5-9 ¼ | 214 | 4.52 | Rd 6, Pk 17
4.12 | RB19 | Ollie Gordon II | MIA Dolphins | 6-1 ⅜ | 226 lbs | 4.61 | Rd 6, Pk 3

RB roulette here trying to sort out who will have standalone value and who will win the injury lottery

I've got Tuten (jax), Woody Marks (hou), Croskey-Merritt (was), and Monangai (chi) in this gaggle as well.

It is going to take some time to sort this out, I suspect. I still love this RB class, but the depth may have also allowed some teams to put off drafting a RB. Still, it is hard to ignore the lack of Draft capital. Here is my list of RBs in this 'gaggle', all drafted on Day 3 of the NFL Draft, and all with warts:

2.12 | RB8 | Bhayshul Tuten | JAC Jaguars| 5-9 ¼ | 200 | 4.32 | Rd 4, Pk 2
Etienne and Bigsby seem fairly well entrenched at the top of this depth chart, so Tuten may be fighting for scraps.
3.01 | RB9 | Dylan Sampson | CLE Browns | 5-8 ⅛ | 200 | 4.42 (Pro Day) | Rd 4, Pk 24
Sampson must contend with fellow rook Quinshon Judkins, but if he can carve out a RBBC role, he may still salvage some value. Disappointing draft destination.
3.02 | RB10 | Trevor Etienne | CAR Panthers | 5-8 ¾ | 198 | 4.42 | Rd 4, Pk 12
This is a bit of a jumbled-up backfield. Hubbard and Brooks may make Etienne’s value minimal.
3.08 | RB11 | Devin Neal | NO Saints | 5-11 ⅛ | 213 | 4.58 | Rd 6, Pk 8
Probably mere depth, but if he can challenge Kendre Miller (or if Kendre Miller battles injuries again), Neal could spell Kamara.
4.01 | RB12 | Jarquez Hunter | LA Rams | 5-9 ⅜ | 204 | 4.44 | Rd 4, Pk 15
Hunter could overtake Corum to be the primary reserve behind Kyren Williams.
4.05 | RB13 | Jaydon Blue | DAL Cowboys | 5-9 | 196 | 4.38 | Rd 5, Pk 12
Blue will be vying for a receiving back role. I may have him too high in this list, but if he wins a role, he could have some PPR value behind Williams and Sanders.
4.06 | RB14 | DJ Giddens | IND Colts | 6-0 ¼ | 212 lbs | 4.43 | Rd 5, Pk 14
It was disappointing that Giddens did not find a better home. He will challenge Khalil Herbert for a reserve role behind Taylor.
4.07 | RB15 | Jordan James | SF 49ers | 5-9 ½ | 205 | 4.55 | Rd 5, Pk 9
This is a good offensive fit for James, and we saw last season how injuries can quickly challenge a depth chart. I like his chances of starting the season as the Niners’ RB3 behind CMC and Guerendo.
4.08 | RB16 | Brashard Smith | KC Chiefs | 5-9 ⅞| 194 | 4.39 | Rd 7, Pk 12
Brings quickness and receiving ability to the Chiefs.
4.09 | RB17 | Damien Martinez | SEA Seahawks | 5-11 ⅝ | 217 | 4.51 | Rd 7, Pk 7
I like Martinez, but this will be a difficult Depth Chart to ascend
4.10 | RB18 | Tahj Brooks | CIN Bengals | 5-9 ¼ | 214 | 4.52 | Rd 6, Pk 17
Not great depth behind Chase Brown, so Brooks could find a role.
4.12 | RB19 | Ollie Gordon II | MIA Dolphins | 6-1 ⅜ | 226 lbs | 4.61 | Rd 6, Pk 3
Former Doak Walker Award winner. Gordon will battle Mattison to be the power back behind Achane (and Jaylen Wright).
5.03 | RB20 | Woody Marks | HOU Texans | 5-10 ⅛ | 207 lbs | 4.54 | Rd 4, Pk 14
Marks will be looking to carve out a receiving role
5.07 | RB23 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS Commanders | 5-11 | 208 | 4.45 (Pro Day) | Rd 7, Pk 29
Croskey-Merritt is a deep sleeper in this class. He is an older prospect, but I like his odds to stick in Washington.
5.08 | RB21 | LeQuint Allen Jr. | JAC Jaguars | 6-0 ⅛ | 204 | 4.50 | Rd 7, Pk 20
Very crowded, especially with the additions of both Tuten and Allen.
5.10 | RB22 | Kyle Monangai | CHI Bears | 5-8 ¼ | 211 | 4.60 | Rd 7, Pk 17
I felt like Chicago would draft a RB, and Monangai is the guy, but not until Rd. 7. Probably stuck behind Swift and Roschon.

 

[socrates]

Had Warren just ahead of Loveland back-to-back coming in. Loveland goes 10, bump him ahead as the more pure receiving TE, despite Kmet. Burden selection felt like a tipping point to bump Warren back ahead of Loveland.

Exactly where I was before the Draft. Warren faces less competition for touches in a worse passing offense. I will likely go back and forth on this all summer.

Didn't count on Harvey going that high. I didn't have him in the same tier as Kaleb Johnson coming in. Still have Kaleb Johnson just ahead, but I'm thinking I'll probably have to come home to the 2nd round RB once we get a taste of what Payton has planned.

I have them back-to-back, but Harvey has the better draft capital and better destination. His age is a bit of a concern, but I opted for Harvey ahead of KJ. I would be happy getting either.

I know it's only two picks, but I begrudgingly gave the nod to Judkins over Henderson. Didn't feel great about it and I'm sure I would have switched back regardless, but the Sampson selection in round 4 gave me the excuse I needed to confidently switch back to Henderson.

The thought had crossed my mind as well. Sampson's addition in Cleveland ended any thoughts of Judkins over Henderson.

I'm fairly certain that the logical side of me will not allow me to pass up on a late 1st round RB, but Henderson will be screaming at me to give him the bump ahead of Hampton. Hard to tune out a number of analysts I respect being so down on Hampton. Needless to say, I more or less have Hampton, Henderson, Judkins in the same tier, rather I should or not.

Chargers was always a prime destination for a RB, and while Najee takes some of the polish off this, I am still going to keep him ahead of Henderson. I have them in the same tier, and Judkins is really more like only a half tier below them.

At this point, I'm also having a hard time giving the 2nd round TEs the edge ahead of Fannin. Not really in the market, so haven't given a ton of thought or research to any of these guys. Just seemed like there was slightly more optimism for Fannin's potential coming in based on what I was listening to.

I had already pushed Mason and Arroyo ahead of Fannin, and Ferguson was pushing toward that. Fannin now becomes a value pick.

 

[pinkstapler]

I know the cut offs are cut offs for a reason; but been saying the past 3 months about the depth of this RB class. The fact that 2 RBs went in the first 3 picks of the 4th round means something, especially considering they were both projected third round picks (it didn't come out of nowhere). And really, 5 went in the first 15 picks of the fourth round. The statistics are what they are; can't argue it. I just think these guys, especially Cam and Tuten, are going to be why the hit rates are at 24%/8% for 4th round guys and not 18%/4%. If there was a year where a few extra 4ths land, I think this is the one.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

4.06 | RB14 | DJ Giddens | IND Colts | 6-0 ¼ | 212 lbs | 4.43 | Rd 5, Pk 14
It was disappointing that Giddens did not find a better home. He will challenge Khalil Herbert for a reserve role behind Taylor.

I'm a little bit higher on the Giddens landing spot, even behind JT. Really, one the guys from this group that catches my eye the most as I scroll through. Maybe I'm just too traumatized from years of rostering Herbert to give him the respect he deserves.

Chicago.... this was really one of the disappointing teams that I was hoping would step up earlier. I was really getting psyched for Henderson landing in Burden's spot. I'm not sure if they were sniped by NE. Probably not if they waited until round 7. It feels like Etienne or Cook could be in play if things go sideways, but maybe they just like Swift and/or Roschon a lot more than I think they should.

 

[menobrown]

3.01 | RB9 | Dylan Sampson | CLE Browns | 5-8 ⅛ | 200 | 4.42 (Pro Day) | Rd 4, Pk 24
3.02 | RB10 | Trevor Etienne | CAR Panthers | 5-8 ¾ | 198 | 4.42 | Rd 4, Pk 12

3.08 | RB11 | Devin Neal | NO Saints | 5-11 ⅛ | 213 | 4.58 | Rd 6, Pk 8

4.01 | RB12 | Jarquez Hunter | LA Rams | 5-9 ⅜ | 204 | 4.44 | Rd 4, Pk 15

4.05 | RB13 | Jaydon Blue | DAL Cowboys | 5-9 | 196 | 4.38 | Rd 5, Pk 12
4.06 | RB14 | DJ Giddens | IND Colts | 6-0 ¼ | 212 lbs | 4.43 | Rd 5, Pk 14
4.07 | RB15 | Jordan James | SF 49ers | 5-9 ½ | 205 | 4.55 | Rd 5, Pk 9
4.08 | RB16 | Brashard Smith | KC Chiefs | 5-9 ⅞| 194 | 4.39 | Rd 7, Pk 12
4.09 | RB17 | Damien Martinez | SEA Seahawks | 5-11 ⅝ | 217 | 4.51 | Rd 7, Pk 7
4.10 | RB18 | Tahj Brooks | CIN Bengals | 5-9 ¼ | 214 | 4.52 | Rd 6, Pk 17
4.12 | RB19 | Ollie Gordon II | MIA Dolphins | 6-1 ⅜ | 226 lbs | 4.61 | Rd 6, Pk 3

RB roulette here trying to sort out who will have standalone value and who will win the injury lottery

Training camp is going to be so interesting this year and no doubt we'll get a bunch of stuff wrong from that. Have never seen such a confusing RB landscape. Expected it, but does not make it any less confusing.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

I know the cut offs are cut offs for a reason; but been saying the past 3 months about the depth of this RB class. The fact that 2 RBs went in the first 3 picks of the 4th round means something, especially considering they were both projected third round picks (it didn't come out of nowhere). And really, 5 went in the first 15 picks of the fourth round. The statistics are what they are; can't argue it. I just think these guys, especially Cam and Tuten, are going to be why the hit rates are at 24%/8% for 4th round guys and not 18%/4%. If there was a year where a few extra 4ths land, I think this is the one.

I'm with you on these two. Liked both a lot coming in and top of the 4th vs compensatory 3rd rounder selection makes very little difference to me in how I view them.

I will admit to having blinders on just how good or flawed Tyrone Tracy's game might be. I think there's room to carve out a role or even take the top spot, so I'm still very bullish on Skattebo and have a 1.12 or 2.3 pick waiting for him.

Tuten, I don't love the way the depth chart looks, but something seems up here. Weird to invest an early 4th if they're happy with Etienne-Bigsby up top. Weird the way they double-tapped on Laquint Allen. I think one of the higher ranked UDFAs Ja'Quinden Jackson signed as well. Seems a little excessive if Etienne or Bigsby aren't on the outs.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Didn't count on Harvey going that high. I didn't have him in the same tier as Kaleb Johnson coming in. Still have Kaleb Johnson just ahead, but I'm thinking I'll probably have to come home to the 2nd round RB once we get a taste of what Payton has planned.

I have them back-to-back, but Harvey has the better draft capital and better destination. His age is a bit of a concern, but I opted for Harvey ahead of KJ. I would be happy getting either.

I made a pledge to myself not to action any gut feelings in the opposite direction of draft capital when the gap between Harvey and Johnson is this wide. Just listened to Ray Garvin call Harvey his #3 RB, ahead of Henderson and Judkins, but all on the same tier. Not sure I'm quite to that level yet, but he made some compelling points. At any rate, Harvey > KJ, as it should be adjusting to the new realities we now know.

 

[pinkstapler]

I know the cut offs are cut offs for a reason; but been saying the past 3 months about the depth of this RB class. The fact that 2 RBs went in the first 3 picks of the 4th round means something, especially considering they were both projected third round picks (it didn't come out of nowhere). And really, 5 went in the first 15 picks of the fourth round. The statistics are what they are; can't argue it. I just think these guys, especially Cam and Tuten, are going to be why the hit rates are at 24%/8% for 4th round guys and not 18%/4%. If there was a year where a few extra 4ths land, I think this is the one.

I'm with you on these two. Liked both a lot coming in and top of the 4th vs compensatory 3rd rounder selection makes very little difference to me in how I view them.

I will admit to having blinders on just how good or flawed Tyrone Tracy's game might be. I think there's room to carve out a role or even take the top spot, so I'm still very bullish on Skattebo and have a 1.12 or 2.3 pick waiting for him.

Tuten, I don't love the way the depth chart looks, but something seems up here. Weird to invest an early 4th if they're happy with Etienne-Bigsby up top. Weird the way they double-tapped on Laquint Allen. I think one of the higher ranked UDFAs Ja'Quinden Jackson signed as well. Seems a little excessive if Etienne or Bigsby aren't on the outs.

Yeah I think I'm ready to have to wait on these guys really hitting that first top 12 RB season (if they ever even do). TBH, even the top backs I love and will be taking with an early 1st round pick might have to wait till 2027 to really hit stride because of some backfield competition.

I forget the numbers, but I know I heard/read much of the fantasy RB boom this past year was also due to a very, very low injury rate among starting RBs. Feels like something ripe to regress to the mean. While completely unpredictable, that could certainly fall to the favor of some of these round 4/5 rookies as well. All you need is an opportunity at RB, and if you're able to capitalize, it tends to lock you into a role and make people forget about your draft round pretty quick.

 

[socrates]

I know the cut offs are cut offs for a reason; but been saying the past 3 months about the depth of this RB class. The fact that 2 RBs went in the first 3 picks of the 4th round means something, especially considering they were both projected third round picks (it didn't come out of nowhere). And really, 5 went in the first 15 picks of the fourth round. The statistics are what they are; can't argue it. I just think these guys, especially Cam and Tuten, are going to be why the hit rates are at 24%/8% for 4th round guys and not 18%/4%. If there was a year where a few extra 4ths land, I think this is the one.

I have gotta believe you are right. It seems like the great depth at RB in this year's class led to teams addressing other needs and delaying their selection of a RB. Cam, Tuten and Sampson really should have been Round Three selections. It will be fun to revisit this thread later.

 

[socrates]

I'm a little bit higher on the Giddens landing spot, even behind JT. Really, one the guys from this group that catches my eye the most as I scroll through. Maybe I'm just too traumatized from years of rostering Herbert to give him the respect he deserves.

You may be right. I am not completely sold on Herbert, so this may not be such a bad destination for Giddens. Still, even if he leapfrogs Herbert, Giddens is mostly just a handcuff to JT.

Chicago.... this was really one of the disappointing teams that I was hoping would step up earlier. I was really getting psyched for Henderson landing in Burden's spot. I'm not sure if they were sniped by NE. Probably not if they waited until round 7. It feels like Etienne or Cook could be in play if things go sideways, but maybe they just like Swift and/or Roschon a lot more than I think they should.

I really thought Chicago would make a play for a speedy back. Once they missed out on Henderson, I wondered if they might target either Tuten or Sampson. This may be a win for Swift.

 

[massraider]

Egbuka, Golden, and Burden going to WR rich teams is incredibly annoying

It definitely presents a challenge for these draftees, but they all benefit from being drafted to emerging offenses.

Egbuka may have to cut his teeth learning from veterans Godwin and Evans, but they are both aging stars, so I won't ding Egbuka too much here. The crowded receiver room should be more of a short-term obstacle. Egbuka is no stranger to working alongside other very talented receivers, and I believe he will fit well in this offense.

Burden finds himself in an offense on the rise. Despite the competition for touches, I think this could be a win for Burden. It will require some patience, however. I think the competition may bring out the best in Burden, and if he proves he is up to the challenge, the situation will work itself out in time.

Golden finds himself in an offense crowded with WR2s. GB is ripe for a WR1 talent; I just don't know that Golden fits the bill. He is an upgrade over Watson, and he is paired with a young, talented QB. I actually love this opportunity for Golden, and his ceiling is very high. Can he seize it? We shall see. This situation is somewhat similar to what Kyle Williams faces in New England.

Yeah. Liking a player is one thing, but if there's a path to the guy being the #1 target, you target those dudes

 

[Moonlight]

I'm a little bit higher on the Giddens landing spot, even behind JT. Really, one the guys from this group that catches my eye the most as I scroll through. Maybe I'm just too traumatized from years of rostering Herbert to give him the respect he deserves.

You may be right. I am not completely sold on Herbert, so this may not be such a bad destination for Giddens. Still, even if he leapfrogs Herbert, Giddens is mostly just a handcuff to JT.

Chicago.... this was really one of the disappointing teams that I was hoping would step up earlier. I was really getting psyched for Henderson landing in Burden's spot. I'm not sure if they were sniped by NE. Probably not if they waited until round 7. It feels like Etienne or Cook could be in play if things go sideways, but maybe they just like Swift and/or Roschon a lot more than I think they should.

I really thought Chicago would make a play for a speedy back. Once they missed out on Henderson, I wondered if they might target either Tuten or Sampson. This may be a win for Swift.

There should be some other plan in place besides relying on Swift. Swift was bounced from Detroit while Ben Johnson was there and he was bounced from Philly after one year there.
I would suggest that the Bears sign one of the remaining FAs, Dobbins might work better. Don’t see how they can stick with Swift for the whole season.

 

[socrates]

I'm a little bit higher on the Giddens landing spot, even behind JT. Really, one the guys from this group that catches my eye the most as I scroll through. Maybe I'm just too traumatized from years of rostering Herbert to give him the respect he deserves.

You may be right. I am not completely sold on Herbert, so this may not be such a bad destination for Giddens. Still, even if he leapfrogs Herbert, Giddens is mostly just a handcuff to JT.

Chicago.... this was really one of the disappointing teams that I was hoping would step up earlier. I was really getting psyched for Henderson landing in Burden's spot. I'm not sure if they were sniped by NE. Probably not if they waited until round 7. It feels like Etienne or Cook could be in play if things go sideways, but maybe they just like Swift and/or Roschon a lot more than I think they should.

I really thought Chicago would make a play for a speedy back. Once they missed out on Henderson, I wondered if they might target either Tuten or Sampson. This may be a win for Swift.

There should be some other plan in place besides relying on Swift. Swift was bounced from Detroit while Ben Johnson was there and he was bounced from Philly after one year there.
I would suggest that the Bears sign one of the remaining FAs, Dobbins might work better. Don’t see how they can stick with Swift for the whole season.

I absolutely agree with you. I was certain they were going to draft a RB to challenge Swift. It appears they may be targeting FA Nick Chubb, but would he push Swift out or just complement him?