Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
I'd be a lot happier as a Swift owner if Chubb was their choice over Dobbins.It appears they may be targeting FA Nick Chubb, but would he push Swift out or just complement him?
I'd be a lot happier as a Swift owner if Chubb was their choice over Dobbins.It appears they may be targeting FA Nick Chubb, but would he push Swift out or just complement him?
This was a terribly difficult decision between these two. Burden has been ahead of Golden in my rankings right along (although I had them in the same tier). I tend to be slow to adjust my rankings when I feel they were based on a solid foundation. However, Golden gets the Rd. 1 Draft capital and the clearer path to a significant role, so I feel compelled to rank him ahead of Burden. Even so, I might still select Burden if I am on the clock with this decision. I keep reminding myself that this is a Ben Johnson-led offense, with Caleb Williams at QB. Luther Burden was arguably the best after-the-catch receiver in this class, something Ben Johnson prioritizes and schemes for. But for it being a crowded receiver room, this is a perfect fit. Burden is an Alpha, and I will gamble on him rising to the top, but his path is not going to be easy.Agree on Burden vs Golden. How I viewed the prospects coming in, compared to the actual draft capital and immediate opportunity. I'm still holding Burden ahead for now, but that's going to be a very spicy take to execute on the clock.
I'd be a lot happier as a Swift owner if Chubb was their choice over Dobbins.It appears they may be targeting FA Nick Chubb, but would he push Swift out or just complement him?
First instinct is Ayomanor is my 3rd round target.
Never understood so many people's displeasure with Swift over the years. First it was "he's always injured 3 games a year", then "he doesn't play through injury" and "he's playing but he's questionable every game" (the previous two statements seem to conflict anyway), now it's "he doesn't run with the right style". Dude is a career 4.4yd/att, 5.9yd/target guy. His rushing success% is better than Saquon. (Succ% is an arbitrary stat, but it seems really hard to say he's a below-average starting RB based on pretty much any numbers you want to pull up.)I absolutely agree with you. I was certain they were going to draft a RB to challenge Swift. It appears they may be targeting FA Nick Chubb, but would he push Swift out or just complement him?There should be some other plan in place besides relying on Swift. Swift was bounced from Detroit while Ben Johnson was there and he was bounced from Philly after one year there.I'm a little bit higher on the Giddens landing spot, even behind JT. Really, one the guys from this group that catches my eye the most as I scroll through. Maybe I'm just too traumatized from years of rostering Herbert to give him the respect he deserves.
You may be right. I am not completely sold on Herbert, so this may not be such a bad destination for Giddens. Still, even if he leapfrogs Herbert, Giddens is mostly just a handcuff to JT.
Chicago.... this was really one of the disappointing teams that I was hoping would step up earlier. I was really getting psyched for Henderson landing in Burden's spot. I'm not sure if they were sniped by NE. Probably not if they waited until round 7. It feels like Etienne or Cook could be in play if things go sideways, but maybe they just like Swift and/or Roschon a lot more than I think they should.
I really thought Chicago would make a play for a speedy back. Once they missed out on Henderson, I wondered if they might target either Tuten or Sampson. This may be a win for Swift.
I would suggest that the Bears sign one of the remaining FAs, Dobbins might work better. Don’t see how they can stick with Swift for the whole season.
I'm a little bit higher on the Giddens landing spot, even behind JT. Really, one the guys from this group that catches my eye the most as I scroll through. Maybe I'm just too traumatized from years of rostering Herbert to give him the respect he deserves.
You may be right. I am not completely sold on Herbert, so this may not be such a bad destination for Giddens. Still, even if he leapfrogs Herbert, Giddens is mostly just a handcuff to JT.
Thank you. Great points.I'm a little bit higher on the Giddens landing spot, even behind JT. Really, one the guys from this group that catches my eye the most as I scroll through. Maybe I'm just too traumatized from years of rostering Herbert to give him the respect he deserves.
You may be right. I am not completely sold on Herbert, so this may not be such a bad destination for Giddens. Still, even if he leapfrogs Herbert, Giddens is mostly just a handcuff to JT.
I think the first "staging area" for all of these backs that we're trying to get to is the #2 spot on their depth chart. Most will have company and are probably in a split (at best) or committee in the event of the starter going down. However, if we're thinking of any of them as the guy that would hold the most value if the #1 goes down, we're on the right track. Those are the guys gaining value.
Ultimately, they only really matter if they have the profile to run away with the job if the starter goes down or to make some serious noise in a backup role. Taylor would obviously be a huge hurdle that Giddens couldn't hope to clear and could only wait out. However, given the age and previous contract spat, it might be a situation where the Colts are willing to move on a year too early than keeping him a year too long out of loyalty. The contract only has him locked in for 2025, with $13M cap savings in 2026. If there was an injury and Giddens killed it, stranger things have happened. With that said, all of these guys are long shots for a reason.
Easier path to the #2 spot... maybe Ollie Gordon in Miami, depending on how they feel about Wright? He would seem to fit as a big back complement to Achane.
Maybe Tahj Brooks in Cincy depending on where we're at with Moss. Maybe Woody Marks in Houston as much as they seem to hate Dameon Pierce as a RB. In these cases, I don't like the profile as much as a Giddens or Gordon to run away with the top job some day. But there is one analyst that really likes Brooks and another that was trumpeting Marks going into '24. For the latter, top half of round 4 capital might indicate some perceived upside from the team beyond a career backup.
I didn't watch a lot of early years Swift, but watching every Bears game last year he was an average RB at best. He is frustrating because you can see the yards he was leaving on the field. It's clear his vision isn't great, and he tends to look for the homerun vs getting the easy yards. Top 4 in the league in tackles for loss (second in yards lost), Tied for 79th in yards after contact and one of the worst broken tackle rates in the league with 36 rush attempts per broken tackle.Never understood so many people's displeasure with Swift over the years. First it was "he's always injured 3 games a year", then "he doesn't play through injury" and "he's playing but he's questionable every game" (the previous two statements seem to conflict anyway), now it's "he doesn't run with the right style". Dude is a career 4.4yd/att, 5.9yd/target guy. His rushing success% is better than Saquon. (Succ% is an arbitrary stat, but it seems really hard to say he's a below-average starting RB based on pretty much any numbers you want to pull up.)I absolutely agree with you. I was certain they were going to draft a RB to challenge Swift. It appears they may be targeting FA Nick Chubb, but would he push Swift out or just complement him?There should be some other plan in place besides relying on Swift. Swift was bounced from Detroit while Ben Johnson was there and he was bounced from Philly after one year there.I'm a little bit higher on the Giddens landing spot, even behind JT. Really, one the guys from this group that catches my eye the most as I scroll through. Maybe I'm just too traumatized from years of rostering Herbert to give him the respect he deserves.
You may be right. I am not completely sold on Herbert, so this may not be such a bad destination for Giddens. Still, even if he leapfrogs Herbert, Giddens is mostly just a handcuff to JT.
Chicago.... this was really one of the disappointing teams that I was hoping would step up earlier. I was really getting psyched for Henderson landing in Burden's spot. I'm not sure if they were sniped by NE. Probably not if they waited until round 7. It feels like Etienne or Cook could be in play if things go sideways, but maybe they just like Swift and/or Roschon a lot more than I think they should.
I really thought Chicago would make a play for a speedy back. Once they missed out on Henderson, I wondered if they might target either Tuten or Sampson. This may be a win for Swift.
I would suggest that the Bears sign one of the remaining FAs, Dobbins might work better. Don’t see how they can stick with Swift for the whole season.
Yeah, his yards per carry were down last year. Good points on the yards after contact and broken tackle rates.I didn't watch a lot of early years Swift, but watching every Bears game last year he was an average RB at best. He is frustrating because you can see the yards he was leaving on the field. It's clear his vision isn't great, and he tends to look for the homerun vs getting the easy yards. Top 4 in the league in tackles for loss (second in yards lost), Tied for 79th in yards after contact and one of the worst broken tackle rates in the league with 36 rush attempts per broken tackle.Never understood so many people's displeasure with Swift over the years. First it was "he's always injured 3 games a year", then "he doesn't play through injury" and "he's playing but he's questionable every game" (the previous two statements seem to conflict anyway), now it's "he doesn't run with the right style". Dude is a career 4.4yd/att, 5.9yd/target guy. His rushing success% is better than Saquon. (Succ% is an arbitrary stat, but it seems really hard to say he's a below-average starting RB based on pretty much any numbers you want to pull up.)I absolutely agree with you. I was certain they were going to draft a RB to challenge Swift. It appears they may be targeting FA Nick Chubb, but would he push Swift out or just complement him?There should be some other plan in place besides relying on Swift. Swift was bounced from Detroit while Ben Johnson was there and he was bounced from Philly after one year there.I'm a little bit higher on the Giddens landing spot, even behind JT. Really, one the guys from this group that catches my eye the most as I scroll through. Maybe I'm just too traumatized from years of rostering Herbert to give him the respect he deserves.
You may be right. I am not completely sold on Herbert, so this may not be such a bad destination for Giddens. Still, even if he leapfrogs Herbert, Giddens is mostly just a handcuff to JT.
Chicago.... this was really one of the disappointing teams that I was hoping would step up earlier. I was really getting psyched for Henderson landing in Burden's spot. I'm not sure if they were sniped by NE. Probably not if they waited until round 7. It feels like Etienne or Cook could be in play if things go sideways, but maybe they just like Swift and/or Roschon a lot more than I think they should.
I really thought Chicago would make a play for a speedy back. Once they missed out on Henderson, I wondered if they might target either Tuten or Sampson. This may be a win for Swift.
I would suggest that the Bears sign one of the remaining FAs, Dobbins might work better. Don’t see how they can stick with Swift for the whole season.
Great stuff!Some changes in my rankings since April:
I ended up moving Luther Burden back up to my WR3. I was initially disappointed with how things played out on Draft Day for him, but he finds himself in an emerging offense. He faces a lot of competition, but in terms of Dynasty, I believe Chicago is a plus for Burden. Burden has elite RAC ability, and that should fit well in Ben Johnson's offense.
I also moved Emeka Egbuka ahead of Colston Loveland. Like Burden, Egbuka faces a a lot of competition for touches in the short-term. However, you don't have to look too far down the road to see a golden opportunity for Egbuka.
TreVeyon Henderson is still my 1.03, but I did move him down into the tier with Hunter, McMillan and Judkins.
Cam Skattebo remains my RB7, but he moved up a couple of spots to 2.05 for me. The Draft Capital was disappointing, but he has a great opportunity with the Giants. Still, he was a Day 3 pick. Hard to get too excited about him as a long-term starter.
Same for Bhayshul Tuten. I ticked him up one spot, but I don't have much faith that he is a long-term fantasy starter, and his short-term opportunity is not as good as Skattebo's.
Jarquez Hunter moved up several spots in my rankings. He should push Corum for the RB2 role.
Jalen Royals also bumps up a couple of spots. I wanted to move him up even higher, but with young wideouts Rice and Worthy already rostered ahead of him, Royals' role may be limited.
I think there is an opportunity for Blue in Dallas, but that window may be limited to this season. I don't see him as the long-term answer for the Cowboys. I keep expecting Dallas to pull the trigger on a RB early in the Draft, but they keep missing out. That may change in 2026. Their future starter is probably not currently on their roster.Great stuff!Some changes in my rankings since April:
I ended up moving Luther Burden back up to my WR3. I was initially disappointed with how things played out on Draft Day for him, but he finds himself in an emerging offense. He faces a lot of competition, but in terms of Dynasty, I believe Chicago is a plus for Burden. Burden has elite RAC ability, and that should fit well in Ben Johnson's offense.
I also moved Emeka Egbuka ahead of Colston Loveland. Like Burden, Egbuka faces a a lot of competition for touches in the short-term. However, you don't have to look too far down the road to see a golden opportunity for Egbuka.
TreVeyon Henderson is still my 1.03, but I did move him down into the tier with Hunter, McMillan and Judkins.
Cam Skattebo remains my RB7, but he moved up a couple of spots to 2.05 for me. The Draft Capital was disappointing, but he has a great opportunity with the Giants. Still, he was a Day 3 pick. Hard to get too excited about him as a long-term starter.
Same for Bhayshul Tuten. I ticked him up one spot, but I don't have much faith that he is a long-term fantasy starter, and his short-term opportunity is not as good as Skattebo's.
Jarquez Hunter moved up several spots in my rankings. He should push Corum for the RB2 role.
Jalen Royals also bumps up a couple of spots. I wanted to move him up even higher, but with young wideouts Rice and Worthy already rostered ahead of him, Royals' role may be limited.
The one player in your rankings that stands out as way below ADP is Blue RB DAL. Care to expand on your thoughts on him? (Sorry if you’ve done this already up thread. I’ve read every post in this thread but certainly haven’t memorized which players you’ve expanded on or not.)
You may be right on Ward and Dart. They are the top QBs in a weak QB class. I might be more interested in Milroe where he is being drafted. He is the one QB in this class with an enormously high ceiling, albeit a very low floor. If you can nab him late Round 3, however, he is worth the risk, imo.Great job on this update. Just a few thoughts.
I don't disagree with their value, but I don't think Ward and Dart will be drafted that late.
Not sure what to think of the value of Blue. This was probably his value pre-draft, but I think now he is being drafted more in the late second than early fourth.
Blue is being over-valued for Dynasty, imo. He is a 5th Rd. pick who never put up elite numbers in college and has ball security issues. I think he could find a role, but even if he emerges as the lead back for the Cowboys, his window is limited.Not sure what to think of the value of Blue. This was probably his value pre-draft, but I think now he is being drafted more in the late second than early fourth.
Kalel Mullings has some studly traits, low mileage and great character.There are a few players I will put a premium on for Dynasty draft day. Once i get past the obvious early-tier players, I usually emphasize high-ceiling prospects.
These are the players that if you tilt your head sideways and hold your tongue just right, you can envision being eventual weekly fantasy starters.
Kyle Williams arguably has a higher ceiling than either Higgins or Harris. I don’t know that he qualifies as much of a value where he is being drafted, but I will mention him here because I think Williams could be the NE WR1. Neither Higgins nor Harris project as high, imo. Harris is a complementary receiver, but I don’t see WR1 potential from him. McConkey will be the WR1 for the Bolts. Higgins has a bit more potential, imo, but I actually prefer Jaylin Noel in Houston at their respective ADPs.
If you are looking for a value pick at RB, I think either Neal or Giddens fits the bill. I see every-down traits in both of these runners out of the state of Kansas.
The only QB I am looking to draft at ADP in a single QB league is Milroe. He has elite upside.
Another WR I see as a potential value pick is Tory Horton. If not for an injury derailing his 2024 season, he may have been a Day 2 pick. He has WR1 upside.
Who do you have as a potential value pick?
There are a few players I will put a premium on for Dynasty draft day. Once i get past the obvious early-tier players, I usually emphasize high-ceiling prospects.
These are the players that if you tilt your head sideways and hold your tongue just right, you can envision being eventual weekly fantasy starters.
Kyle Williams arguably has a higher ceiling than either Higgins or Harris. I don’t know that he qualifies as much of a value where he is being drafted, but I will mention him here because I think Williams could be the NE WR1. Neither Higgins nor Harris project as high, imo. Harris is a complementary receiver, but I don’t see WR1 potential from him. McConkey will be the WR1 for the Bolts. Higgins has a bit more potential, imo, but I actually prefer Jaylin Noel in Houston at their respective ADPs.
If you are looking for a value pick at RB, I think either Neal or Giddens fits the bill. I see every-down traits in both of these runners out of the state of Kansas.
The only QB I am looking to draft at ADP in a single QB league is Milroe. He has elite upside.
Another WR I see as a potential value pick is Tory Horton. If not for an injury derailing his 2024 season, he may have been a Day 2 pick. He has WR1 upside.
Who do you have as a potential value pick?
I like that you have highlighted Mullings. Kalel Mullings is a beast. He may remind some in Tennessee of Hassan Haskins due to his hard-nosed running style, although I think he compares more favorably to Braelon Allen. Both are former LBs turned RB who bring that LB mentality to the position. Mullings doesn't add much as a receiver, but, as you say, he is still learning the position. A LeGarrette Blount type of career is certainly within the realm of possibilities.Kalel Mullings has some studly traits, low mileage and great character.There are a few players I will put a premium on for Dynasty draft day. Once i get past the obvious early-tier players, I usually emphasize high-ceiling prospects.
These are the players that if you tilt your head sideways and hold your tongue just right, you can envision being eventual weekly fantasy starters.
Kyle Williams arguably has a higher ceiling than either Higgins or Harris. I don’t know that he qualifies as much of a value where he is being drafted, but I will mention him here because I think Williams could be the NE WR1. Neither Higgins nor Harris project as high, imo. Harris is a complementary receiver, but I don’t see WR1 potential from him. McConkey will be the WR1 for the Bolts. Higgins has a bit more potential, imo, but I actually prefer Jaylin Noel in Houston at their respective ADPs.
If you are looking for a value pick at RB, I think either Neal or Giddens fits the bill. I see every-down traits in both of these runners out of the state of Kansas.
The only QB I am looking to draft at ADP in a single QB league is Milroe. He has elite upside.
Another WR I see as a potential value pick is Tory Horton. If not for an injury derailing his 2024 season, he may have been a Day 2 pick. He has WR1 upside.
Who do you have as a potential value pick?
Strong through the line. Great ball security. Still learning how to be a RB.
You are absolutely right! I wonder if the incredible depth of this RB class may have pushed some of these RBs down at least a round in the Draft. To my eyes, Martinez and Gordon (and D. Neal, T. Brooks, B. Smith, J. Croskey-Merrit) are better than Rounds 6-7, and Round 5 had some great talent (James, Blue and Giddens).Some of the rb I thought could be day 3 value didn’t get drafted until round 6 (Martinez) or 7 (Gordon), so the nfl doesn’t think as highly of them as I did. Even beyond those 2, a bunch of the round 5-7 guys have potential. It’s hard to say who will emerge and how as none have immediate paths to relevance.
Kalel Mullings has some studly traits, low mileage and great character.
Terrance Ferguson may be my favorite TE in this class at his ADP. I moved up in one draft to acquire him (non-TE Premium), even with Tuten still on the board. TE has been a very difficult position to predict, however.There are a few players I will put a premium on for Dynasty draft day. Once i get past the obvious early-tier players, I usually emphasize high-ceiling prospects.
These are the players that if you tilt your head sideways and hold your tongue just right, you can envision being eventual weekly fantasy starters.
Kyle Williams arguably has a higher ceiling than either Higgins or Harris. I don’t know that he qualifies as much of a value where he is being drafted, but I will mention him here because I think Williams could be the NE WR1. Neither Higgins nor Harris project as high, imo. Harris is a complementary receiver, but I don’t see WR1 potential from him. McConkey will be the WR1 for the Bolts. Higgins has a bit more potential, imo, but I actually prefer Jaylin Noel in Houston at their respective ADPs.
If you are looking for a value pick at RB, I think either Neal or Giddens fits the bill. I see every-down traits in both of these runners out of the state of Kansas.
The only QB I am looking to draft at ADP in a single QB league is Milroe. He has elite upside.
Another WR I see as a potential value pick is Tory Horton. If not for an injury derailing his 2024 season, he may have been a Day 2 pick. He has WR1 upside.
Who do you have as a potential value pick?
I think Terance Ferguson has a chance to be very relevant...Texans traded a future #3 for Woody Marks so gotta believe they envision a role for him...Payton used a #3 on Pat Bryant so that carries a good amount of weight with me.
I am so glad you mentioned Jacory Croskey-Merrit and Xavier Restrepo.Kalel Mullings has some studly traits, low mileage and great character.Picked him up from waivers the other day.
Ferguson, crosskey-Merritt, j hunter and restrepo are mid-late picks I’ll take everywhere I can.
Terrance Ferguson may be my favorite TE in this class at his ADP. I moved up in one draft to acquire him (non-TE Premium), even with Tuten still on the board. TE has been a very difficult position to predict, however.There are a few players I will put a premium on for Dynasty draft day. Once i get past the obvious early-tier players, I usually emphasize high-ceiling prospects.
These are the players that if you tilt your head sideways and hold your tongue just right, you can envision being eventual weekly fantasy starters.
Kyle Williams arguably has a higher ceiling than either Higgins or Harris. I don’t know that he qualifies as much of a value where he is being drafted, but I will mention him here because I think Williams could be the NE WR1. Neither Higgins nor Harris project as high, imo. Harris is a complementary receiver, but I don’t see WR1 potential from him. McConkey will be the WR1 for the Bolts. Higgins has a bit more potential, imo, but I actually prefer Jaylin Noel in Houston at their respective ADPs.
If you are looking for a value pick at RB, I think either Neal or Giddens fits the bill. I see every-down traits in both of these runners out of the state of Kansas.
The only QB I am looking to draft at ADP in a single QB league is Milroe. He has elite upside.
Another WR I see as a potential value pick is Tory Horton. If not for an injury derailing his 2024 season, he may have been a Day 2 pick. He has WR1 upside.
Who do you have as a potential value pick?
I think Terance Ferguson has a chance to be very relevant...Texans traded a future #3 for Woody Marks so gotta believe they envision a role for him...Payton used a #3 on Pat Bryant so that carries a good amount of weight with me.
Woody Marks is one of the best receiving backs in this class, so PPR managers need to take notice. He is a dynamic playmaker. While everyone else is zigging for Jaydon Blue, I will zag for Marks, who was selected a full round earlier in the NFL Draft yet is going later in fantasy drafts. Thanks for highlighting him.
Pat Bryant is interesting, and definitely a potential value where he is being drafted. He went much earlier in the NFL Draft than I expected, and he lands in an excellent situation.